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Results for “reliability estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Inclusion of Radiation Environment Variability for Reliability Estimates for SiC Power MOSFETs

Variability of the solar energetic particle environment is investigated for single-event-burnout reliability of silicon-carbide power metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistors. A probabilistic assessment of failure evaluates the benefits of de-rating voltage, shielding, and mission length. The Prediction of Solar particle Yields for Characterizing Integrating Circuits code is used to calculate a cumulative density function for the fluence of the environment. The lethal ion method is then used to determine what proportion of the environment will cause single-event-burnout. The operating voltage determines the lowest linear-energy-transfer particle that will cause single-event-burnout and that should be included in the environment distribution. The shielding and mission length also determine the final environment distribution of the mission fluence. Through calculating the reliability for different operating voltages, shielding, and mission length for a specific device, it is shown that shielding thickness and operating voltage have a large effect on reliability and can be traded off during the design.

Heavy ion↗
NASA NTRS1991

Development of a probabilistic analysis methodology for structural reliability estimation

The novel probabilistic analysis method for assessment of structural reliability presented, which combines fast-convolution with an efficient structural reliability analysis, can after identifying the most important point of a limit state proceed to establish a quadratic-performance function. It then transforms the quadratic function into a linear one, and applies fast convolution. The method is applicable to problems requiring computer-intensive structural analysis. Five illustrative examples of the method's application are given.

Torng, T. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Parallelized reliability estimation of reconfigurable computer networks

A parallelized system, ASSURE, for computing the reliability of embedded avionics flight control systems which are able to reconfigure themselves in the event of failure is described. ASSURE accepts a grammar that describes a reliability semi-Markov state-space. From this it creates a parallel program that simultaneously generates and analyzes the state-space, placing upper and lower bounds on the probability of system failure. ASSURE is implemented on a 32-node Intel iPSC/860, and has achieved high processor efficiencies on real problems. Through a combination of improved algorithms, exploitation of parallelism, and use of an advanced microprocessor architecture, ASSURE has reduced the execution time on substantial problems by a factor of one thousand over previous workstation implementations. Furthermore, ASSURE's parallel execution rate on the iPSC/860 is an order of magnitude faster than its serial execution rate on a Cray-2 supercomputer. While dynamic load balancing is necessary for ASSURE's good performance, it is needed only infrequently; the particular method of load balancing used does not substantially affect performance.

Nicol, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1972

A Bayesian approach to parameter and reliability estimation in the Poisson distribution.

For life testing procedures, a Bayesian analysis is developed with respect to a random intensity parameter in the Poisson distribution. Bayes estimators are derived for the Poisson parameter and the reliability function based on uniform and gamma prior distributions of that parameter. A Monte Carlo procedure is implemented to make possible an empirical mean-squared error comparison between Bayes and existing minimum variance unbiased, as well as maximum likelihood, estimators. As expected, the Bayes estimators have mean-squared errors that are appreciably smaller than those of the other two.

Canavos, G. C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power Grid Reliability Estimation via Adaptive Importance Sampling

Electricity production currently generates approximately 25% of greenhouse gas emissions in the USA. Thus, increasing the amount of renewable energy is a key step to carbon neutrality. However, integrating a large amount of fluctuating renewable generation is a significant challenge for power grid operating and planning. Grid reliability, i.e., an ability to meet operational constraints under power fluctuations, is probably the most important of them. In this letter, we propose computationally efficient and accurate methods to estimate the probability of line overflow, i.e., reliability constraints violation, under a known distribution of renewable energy generation. To this end, we investigate an importance sampling approach, a flexible extension of Monte-Carlo methods, which adaptively changes the sampling distribution to generate more samples near the reliability boundary. The approach allows to estimate overload probability in real-time based only on a few dozens of random samples, compared to thousands required by the plain Monte-Carlo. Our study focuses on high voltage direct current power transmission grids with linear reliability constraints on power injections and line currents. Herein, we propose a novel theoretically justified physics-informed adaptive importance sampling algorithm and compare its performance to state-of-the-art methods on multiple IEEE power grid test cases.

power system faults↗
NASA NTRS1987

A new approach to reliability estimation for reconfigurable systems

A new approach to computing the probability of failure for process-control systems that achieve reliability by redundancy and reconfiguration is described. This approach has three distinguishing characteristics. It is based on information about the components and the system that can be observed; it requires a minimum of information; and it fills the gaps by locating the redundant unit misbehavior pattern that produces the largest probability of system failure.

White, Allan L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reliability estimation of an advanced nuclear fuel using coupled active learning, multifidelity modeling, and subset simulation

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel is a robust nuclear fuel and determining its reliability is critical for the success of advanced nuclear technologies. However, TRISO failure probabilities are small and the associated computational models are expensive. Here we used coupled active learning, multifidelity modeling, and subset simulation to estimate the failure probabilities of TRISO fuels using several 1D and 2D models. With multifidelity modeling, we replaced expensive high-fidelity (HF) model evaluations with information fusion from two low-fidelity (LF) models. For the 1D TRISO models, we considered three multifidelity modeling strategies: only Kriging, Kriging LF prediction plus Kriging correction, and deep neural network (DNN) LF prediction plus Kriging correction. While the results across these multifidelity modeling strategies compared satisfactorily, strategies employing information fusion from two LF models called the HF model least often. Next, for the 2D TRISO model, we considered two multifidelity modeling strategies: DNN LF prediction plus Kriging correction (data-driven) and 1D TRISO LF prediction plus Kriging correction (physics-based). The physics-based strategy, as expected, consistently required the fewest calls to the HF model. However, the data-driven strategy had a lower overall simulation time since the DNN predictions are instantaneous, and the 1D TRISO model requires a non-negligible simulation time.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Traveling-wave tube reliability estimates, life tests, and space flight experience

Infant mortality, useful life, and wearout phase of twt life are considered. The performance of existing developmental tubes, flight experience, and sequential hardware testing are evaluated. The reliability history of twt's in space applications is documented by considering: (1) the generic parts of the tube in light of the manner in which their design and operation affect the ultimate reliability of the device, (2) the flight experience of medium power tubes, and (3) the available life test data for existing space-qualified twt's in addition to those of high power devices.

Lalli, V. R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Hardware and software reliability estimation using simulations

The simulation technique is used to explore the validation of both hardware and software. It was concluded that simulation is a viable means for validating both hardware and software and associating a reliability number with each. This is useful in determining the overall probability of system failure of an embedded processor unit, and improving both the code and the hardware where necessary to meet reliability requirements. The methodologies were proved using some simple programs, and simple hardware models.

Swern, Frederic L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automating Component-Level Stress Measurements for Inverter Reliability Estimation

In the near future, grid operators are expected to regularly use advanced distributed energy resource (DER) functions, defined in IEEE 1547-2018, to perform a range of grid-support operations. Many of these functions adjust the active and reactive power of the device through commanded or autonomous operating modes which induce new stresses on the power electronics components. In this work, an experimental and theoretical framework is introduced which couples laboratory-measured component stress with advanced inverter functionality and derives a reduction in useful lifetime based on an applicable reliability model. Multiple DER devices were instrumented to calculate the additional component stress under multiple reactive power setpoints to estimate associated DER lifetime reductions. A clear increase in switch loss was demonstrated as a function of irradiance level and power factor. This is replicated in the system-level efficiency measurements, although magnitudes were different—suggesting other loss mechanisms exist. Using an approximate Arrhenius thermal model for the switches, the experimental data indicate a lifetime reduction of 1.5% when operating the inverter at 0.85 PF—compared to unity PF—assuming the DER failure mechanism thermally driven within the H-bridge. If other failure mechanisms are discovered for a set of power electronics devices, this testing and calculation framework can easily be tailored to those failure mechanisms.

Flicker, Jack (ORCID:0000000212232154)↗