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At least 37 records · Page 2

Attack-Resilient Weighted $\ell_{1}$ Observer with Prior Pruning

Security related questions for Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) have attracted much research attention in searching for novel methods for attack-resilient control and/or estimation. Specifically, false data injection attacks (FDIAs) have been shown to be capable of bypassing bad data detection (BDD), while arbitrarily compromising the integrity of state estimators and robust controller even with very sparse measurements corruption. Moreover, based on the inherent sparsity of pragmatic attack signals, ℓ1 -minimization scheme has been used extensively to improve the design of attack-resilient estimators. For this, the theoretical maximum for the percentage of compromised nodes that can be accommodated has been shown to be 50%. In order to guarantee correct state recoveries for larger percentage of attacked nodes, researchers have begun to incorporate prior information into the underlying resilient observer design framework. For the most pragmatic cases, this prior information is often obtained through some data-driven machine learning process. Existing results have shown strong positive correlation between the tolerated attack percentages and the precision of the prior information. In this paper, we present a pruning method to improve the precision of the prior information, given corresponding stochastic uncertainty characteristics of the underlying machine learning model. Then a weighted ℓ1 -minimization is proposed based on the pruned prior. The theoretical and simulation results show that the pruning method significantly improves the observer performance for much larger attack percentages, even when moderately accurate machine learning model used.

Resilient observer, Cyber-physical systems, prunin↗

Power System Resilience Enhancement in Typhoons Using a Three-Stage Day-Ahead Unit Commitment

In this work, we propose a three-stage resilient unit commitment model which considers uncertain typhoon paths and line outages to improve the power system resilience against typhoon events. The proposed solution coordinates resources in response to the worst-case scenario for each possible typhoon path. The optimal decision is based on the characterization of the power system schedule into three stages of preventive control, emergency control, and restoration. Preventive control is performed before the typhoon occurs by quickly adjusting the three-stage resilient unit commitment schedule; emergency control is conducted during the typhoon by shedding local loads to meet the power balance, while other control strategies are assumed to be unavailable due to possible interruptions in the communication system; restoration is realized after the typhoon, when resources are optimally dispatched to repair the outages of critical devices and recover the normal operation state of the power system quickly. Considering the typhoon path uncertainty, we have introduced a stochastic model for possible typhoon paths where all possible affected lines along each typhoon path are assumed to be on outage during the typhoon. Accordingly, we explore the strategy for co-optimizing the three stages in unit commitment. The proposed model is tested on the IEEE 118-bus system and the real-world provincial system to verify its effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Resilient Observer Design for Cyber-Physical Systems with Data-Driven Measurement Pruning

Resilient observer design for Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) in the presence of adversarial false data injection attacks (FDIA) is an active area of research. The existing state-of-the-art algorithms tend to break down as more and more knowledge of the system is built into the attack model; also as the percentage of attacked nodes increases. From the view of optimization theory, the problem is often cast as a classical error correction problem for which a theoretical limit of has been established as the maximum percentage attacked nodes for which state recovery is guaranteed. Beyond this limit, the performance of -minimization based schemes, for instance, deteriorates rapidly. Similar performance degradation occurs for other types of resilient observers beyond certain percentages of attacked nodes. In order to increase the corresponding percentage of attacked nodes for which state recoveries can be guaranteed, researchers have begun to incorporate prior information into the underlying resilient observer design framework. For the most pragmatic cases, this prior information is often obtained through a data-driven machine learning process. Existing results have shown a strong positive correlation between the maximum attacked percentages that can be tolerated and the accuracy of the data-driven model. Motivated by these results, this chapter examines the case for pruning algorithms designed to improve the Positive Prediction Value (PPV) of the resulting prior information, given stochastic uncertainty characteristics of the underlying machine learning model. Theoretical quantification of the achievable improvement is given. Simulation results show that the pruning algorithm significantly increases the maximum correctable percentage of attacked nodes, even for machine learning model whose prediction power is comparable to the random flip of a coin.

Resilient Observer, Cyber-physical Systems, Data-D↗

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Robust Scheduling of Networked Microgrids for Economics and Resilience Improvement

The benefits of networked microgrids in terms of economics and resilience are investigated and validated in this work. Considering the stochastic unintentional islanding conditions and conventional forecast errors of both renewable generation and loads, a two-stage adaptive robust optimization is proposed to minimize the total operating cost of networked microgrids in the worst scenario of the modeled uncertainties. By coordinating the dispatch of distributed energy resources (DERs) and responsive demand among networked microgrids, the total operating cost is minimized, which includes the start-up and shut-down cost of distributed generators (DGs), the operation and maintenance (O&M) cost of DGs, the cost of buying/selling power from/to the utility grid, the degradation cost of energy storage systems (ESSs), and the cost associated with load shedding. The proposed optimization is solved with the column and constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm. The results of case studies demonstrate the advantages of networked microgrids over independent microgrids in terms of reducing total operating cost and improving the resilience of power supply.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

High Performance Adaptive Deep-Reinforcement-Learning-based Real-time Emergency Control (HADREC) to Enhance Power Grid Resilience in Stochastic Environment (Final Report)

The HADREC technology developed in this project features real-time, validated, and predictive emergency control capabilities needed to effectively safeguard the grid against costly disturbances from extreme weather and other disruptive events. It has the potential to revolutionize the emergency control by providing faster and more effective solution for power grid emergency control. The technology can reduce the grid emergency control action time from minutes to seconds and mitigate the impact of outages and reduce system recovery time. The evaluation results using the models and data from PacifiCorp system have shown ~20% improvement in responding time and 70% improved in tripped generator output, comparing against today’s industrial application. This performance can help reduce preventive measurements and improve network utilization and market efficiency, and help lead to a more reliable and resilient power grid with renewable integration. The project has generated significant interest from industry, academic and commercial companies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Investigating Resiliency of Transportation Network under Targeted and Potential Climate Change Disruptions

Ensuring robustness and resilience in intermodal transportation systems is essential for the continuity and reliability of global logistics. These systems are vulnerable to various disruptions, including natural disasters and technical failures. Despite significant research on freight transportation resilience, investigating the robustness of the system after targeted and climate-change-driven disruption remains a crucial challenge. Drawing on network science methodologies, this study models the interdependencies within the rail and water transport networks and simulates different disruption scenarios to evaluate system responses. Here, we use the data from the U.S. Department of Energy Volpe Center for network topology and tonnage projections. The proposed framework quantifies deliberate, stochastic, and climate-driven infrastructure failure, using higher resolution downscaled multiple Earth System Models’ simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase version 6. We show that the disruptions of a few nodes could have a larger impact on the total tonnage of freight transport than on network topology. For example, the removal of targeted 20 nodes can bring the total tonnage carrying capacity to 30% with about 75% of the rail freight network intact. This research advances the theoretical understanding of transportation resilience and provides practical applications for infrastructure managers and policymakers. By implementing these strategies, stakeholders and policymakers can better prepare for and respond to unexpected disruptions, ensuring sustained operational efficiency in transportation networks.

Climate Change Disruptions↗

A Distributionally Robust Resilience Enhancement Strategy for Distribution Networks Considering Decision-Dependent Contingencies

When performing the resilience enhancement for distribution networks, there are two obstacles to reliably model the uncertain contingencies: 1) decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) due to various line hardening decisions, and 2) distributional ambiguity due to limited outage information during extreme weather events (EWEs). Here, to address these two challenges, this paper develops scenario-wise decision-dependent ambiguity sets (SWDD-ASs), where the DDU and distributional ambiguity inherent in EWE-induced contingencies are simultaneously captured for each possible EWE scenario. Then, a two-stage tri-level decision-dependent distributionally robust resilient enhancement (DD-DRRE) model is formulated, whose outputs include the optimal line hardening, distributed generation (DG) allocation, and proactive network reconfiguration strategy under the worst-case distributions in SWDD-ASs. Subsequently, the DD-DRRE model is equivalently recast to a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP)-based master problem and multiple scenario-wise subproblems, facilitating the adoption of a customized column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm. Finally, case studies demonstrate a remarkable improvement in the out-of-sample performance of our model, compared to its prevailing stochastic and robust counterparts. Moreover, the potential values of incorporating the ambiguity and distributional information are quantitatively estimated, providing a useful reference for planners with different budgets and risk-aversion levels.

decision-dependent uncertainty↗

Tri-level hybrid interval-stochastic optimal scheduling for flexible residential loads under GAN-assisted multiple uncertainties

Various building loads, such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioners (HVACs), electric water heaters (EWHs), and electric vehicles (EVs), can introduce opportunities for improving the flexibility of electricity consumption while satisfying the needs of building owners as well as benefiting the resilience of distribution system. To utilize such flexibility, a tri-level distribution market framework is established, including residential consumers, load aggregators (LAs), and the distribution system operator (DSO). In this work, the uncertainties from all three levels are considered. The random consumption behavior at the consumer level is modeled as a Gaussian noise that is also aggregated and transmitted to the LA level. The weather temperature in the LA level is forecasted as an interval, and the photovoltaic (PV) power in the market-clearing level is modeled by a set of power scenarios generated by Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Then, a hybrid interval-stochastic programming is proposed to transform the uncertain problems in the first two levels into deterministic ones. For real-time implementations, a rolling horizon optimization (RHO) scheme is employed to continuously optimize the power consumption based on the latest operating information. Finally, case studies on a modified IEEE 69-bus system validate the effectiveness of the proposed uncertainty modeling strategies and the RHO scheme.

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Resilience Development for Electric Energy Delivery Sytems (ResDEEDS): A Tool for Power System Resilience Planning (Rev. 1)

The INL Resilience Framework is built to be customized to a particular system’s characteristics, resilience goals, and hazards that it is likely to face. The challenge with a framework that is built to be customized is that it requires more effort from the user to understand the framework and apply it correctly to a particular system. The goal of the web application described here is to automate the framework application as much as possible. Inputs from users are standardized into a common format, but the modeling platform used is a modular framework built to adapt to any system. Baseline effects from common hazards are programmed with stochastic variables to allow for quick exploration of hazard impacts, but can be customized down to component-level impact if a user desires a high level of detail and specificity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Optimizing Power Line Undergrounding Decisions under Varying Wildfire Risk and Weather Scenarios

Abstract—The threat of wildfire ignitions from electric power equipment has led utilities to increasingly turn to preemptive power shutoffs, which, while effective in reducing grid-induced wildfire risk, can cause significant load loss. Undergrounding power lines is an alternative strategy for preventing grid-induced wildfires. However, undergrounding lines is costly, so an efficient undergrounding plan must balance reductions in wildfire risk and load loss with the cost of undergrounding lines. We propose a robust optimization model to identify which power lines to underground to maximize load served while limiting wildfire risk across a range of wildfire risk and weather scenarios. Since solving this problem may be computationally heavy for large power grids and many operating scenarios, we present a delayed constraint generation algorithm to iteratively add scenarios until an optimal solution is found. We evaluate the performance of this framework on the RTS-GMLC with scenarios representing a year of operating conditions and compare it with a stochastic programming formulation. Our results indicate that our undergrounding model is successful in reducing load shed and risk compared to baseline cases in which no mitigation action is taken and only power shutoffs are implemented (no undergrounding). The robust formulation also reduces more load shed than the stochastic formulation in the most extreme scenarios. Index Terms—grid resilience, optimization, transmission systems, underground power lines, wildfire risk.

Taylor, S. [Department of Electrical and Computer ↗

Post-Disaster Microgrid Formation for Enhanced Distribution System Resilience

This paper proposes a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based approach for post-disaster critical load restoration in active distribution systems to form microgrids through network reconfiguration to minimize critical load curtailments. Distribution networks are represented as graph networks, and optimal network configurations with microgrids are obtained by searching for the optimal spanning forest. The constraints to the research question being explored are the radial topology and power balance. Unlike existing analytical and population-based approaches, which necessitate the repetition of entire analyses and computation for each outage scenario to find the optimal spanning forest, the proposed approach, once properly trained, can quickly determine the optimal, or near-optimal, spanning forest even when outage scenarios change. When multiple lines fail in the system, the proposed approach forms microgrids with distributed energy resources in active distribution systems to reduce critical load curtailment. The proposed DRL-based model learns the action-value function using the REINFORCE algorithm, which is a model-free reinforcement learning technique based on stochastic policy gradients. A case study was conducted on a 33-node distribution test system, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed approach for post-disaster critical load restoration.

active distribution systems↗

Model Agnostic Bayesian Framework for Online Anomaly/Event Detection in PMU Data

Phasor measurement units (PMU) are integral to the modernization and automation plan of the electric power industry. A PMU data signature contains system-level events (e.g., faults, generation/load change, etc.) and any measurement/device-related errors. Therefore, the reliable and resilient operation of power systems is equivalent to the quality of the PMU data and the situation awareness provided by its data signature. Despite recent progress, current state-of-the-art methods are not fool-proof and have certain limitations tracing an error/abnormality to sensor sub-components and grid systems. This is because of technical challenges imposed by the scarcity of the labeled information, loss of data quality, and non-stationarity of data. In this paper, we consider the online PMU data stream as an output of a stochastic process and pose the anomaly/event detection as a changepoint detection problem dealing with detecting parameter changes in the underlying stochastic processes. The proposed model-agnostic framework relies on: (a) feature extraction utilizing the minimum volume enclosing ellipsoids (MVEE) method from raw PMU observations and (b) a Bayesian framework of changepoint detection. The validity of the proposed methodology is discussed through numerical experiments on real-world utility-scale PMU data.

Hossain, Ramij Raja↗

Mitigating Cascading Outages in Severe Weather Using Simulation-Based Optimization

Severe weather events can trigger cascading power outages and lead to significant losses. In this work, we investigate cascading outage mitigation under severe weather conditions. Given day-ahead weather forecasts and component failure models, we aim to identify a set of power lines that can be hardened to minimize the expected impact of potential cascading outages. Since the expected load shedding cannot be expressed as an explicit function of line hardening decisions and system states, we developed a cascading outage simulator to estimate the expected value of load shedding under various initial weather-related disruption scenarios generated using a weather forecast. To avoid massive enumeration of all possible combinations of line hardening decisions and reduce the simulation efforts, we employed an efficient simulation-based optimization approach that quickly identifies the (near) optimal line hardening decisions in the presence of both large simulation noises due to the highly variable initial disturbances and system states, and significant randomness in the subsequent cascades. Furthermore, the algorithm is also able to utilize parallel computing to dramatically reduce computation time to support decision making in preparation for severe weather conditions. We performed a case study on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 140-bus system model to demonstrate that our approach can significantly improve power grid resilience to adverse weather events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Scheduling Algorithm for Replicated Real-Time Tasks

We present an algorithm for scheduling real-time periodic tasks on a multiprocessor system under fault-tolerant requirement. Our approach incorporates both the redundancy and masking technique and the imprecise computation model. Since the tasks in hard real-time systems have stringent timing constraints, the redundancy and masking technique are more appropriate than the rollback techniques which usually require extra time for error recovery. The imprecise computation model provides flexible functionality by trading off the quality of the result produced by a task with the amount of processing time required to produce it. It therefore permits the performance of a real-time system to degrade gracefully. We evaluate the algorithm by stochastic analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the algorithm is resilient under hardware failures.

Yu, Albert C.↗

Communication-Constrained Expansion Planning for Resilient Distribution Systems

Distributed generation and remotely controlled switches have emerged as important technologies to improve the resiliency of distribution grids against extreme weather-related disturbances. Therefore it becomes important to study how best to place them on the grid in order to meet a resiliency criteria, while minimizing costs and capturing their dependencies on the associated communication systems that sustain their distributed operations. This paper introduces the Optimal Resilient Design Problem for Distribution and Communication Systems (ORDPDC) to address this need. The ORDPDC is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program that captures the physical laws of distribution systems, the communication connectivity of the smart grid components, and a set of scenarios that specifies which components are affected by potential disasters. The paper proposes an exact branch-and-price algorithm for the ORDPDC that features a strong lower bound and a variety of acceleration schemes to address degeneracy. The ORDPDC model and branch-and-price algorithm were evaluated on a variety of test cases with varying disaster intensities and network topologies. The results demonstrate the significant impact of the network topologies on the expansion plans and costs, as well as the computational benefits of the proposed approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine Learning-Assisted High-Temperature Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage Optimization: Numerical Modeling and Machine Learning Input and Output Files

This data set includes the numerical modeling input files and output files used to synthesize data, and the reduced-order machine learning models trained from the synthesized data for reservoir thermal energy storage site identification. In this study, a machine-learning-assisted computational framework is presented to identify High-Temperature Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage (HT-RTES) site with optimal performance metrics by combining physics-based simulation with stochastic hydrogeologic formation and thermal energy storage operation parameters, artificial neural network regression of the simulation data, and genetic algorithm-enabled multi-objective optimization. A doublet well configuration with a layered (aquitard-aquifer-aquitard) generic reservoir is simulated for cases of continuous operation and seasonal-cycle operation scenarios. Neural network-based surrogate models are developed for the two scenarios and applied to generate the Pareto fronts of the HT-RTES performance for four potential HT-RTES sites. The developed Pareto optimal solutions indicate the performance of HT-RTES is operation-scenario (i.e., fluid cycle) and reservoir-site dependent, and the performance metrics have competing effects for a given site and a given fluid cycle. The developed neural network models can be applied to identify suitable sites for HT-RTES, and the proposed framework sheds light on the design of resilient HT-RTES systems. All the simulations and the neural network model were done by Idaho National Laboratory. A detailed description of the work was reported in publication linked below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Dynamics Informed Optimization for Resilient Energy Systems

Optimal mitigation planning for highly disruptive contingencies to a transmission-level power system requires optimization with dynamic power system constraints, due to the key role of dynamics in system stability to major perturbations. We formulate a generalized disjunctive program to determine optimal grid component hardening choices for protecting against major failures, with differential algebraic constraints representing system dynamics (specifically, differential equations representing generator and load behavior and algebraic equations representing instantaneous power balance over the transmission system). We optionally allow stochastic optimal pre-positioning across all considered failure scenarios, and optimal emergency control within each scenario. This novel formulation allows, for the first time, analyzing the resilience interdependencies of mitigation planning, preventive control, and emergency control. Using all three strategies in concert is particularly effective at maintaining robust power system operation under severe contingencies, as we demonstrate on the Western System Coordinating Council (WSCC) 9-bus test system using synthetic multi-device outage scenarios. Towards integrating our modeling framework with real threats and more realistic power systems, we explore applying hybrid dynamics to power systems. Our work is applied to basic RL circuits with the ultimate goal of using the methodology to model protective tripping schemes in the grid. Finally, we survey mitigation techniques for HEMP threats and describe a GIS application developed to create threat scenarios in a grid with geographic detail.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗