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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1991

Estimating The Cost Of Developing Software

Software Cost Estimation Model program, SOFTCOST, developed to provide consistent automated resource-and-schedule mathematical model more formalized than guesswork model. Combines several software-cost models found in open literature into one comprehensive set of algorithms compensating for nearly 50 implementation factors relative to size of task, inherited baseline, organizational and system environment, and difficulty of task. Produces mean and variance estimates of software size, implementation productivity, recommended staff level, probable duration, amount of computer resources required, and amount and cost of software documentation. Written in Microsoft BASIC.

Tausworthe, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

Kerstman, Eric↗

NASA NTRS1974

Small scale photo probability sampling and vegetation classification in southeast Arizona as an ecological base for resource inventory

The author has identified the following significant results. The broad scale vegetation classification was developed for a 3,200 sq mile area in southeastern Arizona. The 31 vegetation types were derived from association tables which contained information taken at about 500 ground sites. The classification provided an information base that was suitable for use with small scale photography. A procedure was developed and tested for objectively comparing photo images. The procedure consisted of two parts, image groupability testing and image complexity testing. The Apollo and ERTS photos were compared for relative suitability as first stage stratification bases in two stage proportional probability sampling. High altitude photography was used in common at the second stage.

Johnson, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS2009

GPS Navigation for the Magnetospheric Multi-Scale Mission

In 2014. NASA is scheduled to launch the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS), a four-satellite formation designed to monitor fluctuations in the Earth's magnetosphere. This mission has two planned phases with different orbits (1? x 12Re and 1.2 x 25Re) to allow for varying science regions of interest. To minimize ground resources and to mitigate the probability of collisions between formation members, an on-board orbit determination system consisting of a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver and crosslink transceiver was desired. Candidate sensors would be required to acquire GPS signals both below and above the constellation while spinning at three revolutions-per-minute (RPM) and exchanging state and science information among the constellation. The Intersatellite Ranging and Alarm System (IRAS), developed by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) was selected to meet this challenge. IRAS leverages the eight years of development GSFC has invested in the Navigator GPS receiver and its spacecraft communication expertise, culminating in a sensor capable of absolute and relative navigation as well as intersatellite communication. The Navigator is a state-of-the-art receiver designed to acquire and track weak GPS signals down to -147dBm. This innovation allows the receiver to track both the main lobe and the much weaker side lobe signals. The Navigator's four antenna inputs and 24 tracking channels, together with customized hardware and software, allow it to seamlessly maintain visibility while rotating. Additionally, an extended Kalman filter provides autonomous, near real-time, absolute state and time estimates. The Navigator made its maiden voyage on the Space Shuttle during the Hubble Servicing Mission, and is scheduled to fly on MMS as well as the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM). Additionally, Navigator's acquisition engine will be featured in the receiver being developed for the Orion vehicle. The crosslink transceiver is a 1/4 Watt transmitter utilizing a TDMA schedule to distribute a science quality message to all constellation members every ten seconds. Additionally the system generates one-way range measurements between formation members which is used as input to the Kalman filter. In preparation for the MMS Preliminary Design Review (PDR), the Navigator was required to pass a series of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) tests to earn the necessary TRL-6 classification. The TRL-6 level is achieved by demonstrating a prototype unit in a relevant end-to-end environment. The IRAS unit was able to meet all requirements during the testing phase, and has thus been TRL-6 qualified

Bamford, William↗

DOE OSTI2023

Direct Bayesian inference for fault severity assessment in Digital-Twin-Based fault diagnosis

For applications in condition-based maintenance of nuclear systems, the assessment of fault severity is crucial. In this work, we developed a framework that allows for direct inference of the probability distributions of possible faults in a system. Here, we employed a model-based approach with model residuals generated from analytical redundancy relations provided by physics-based models of the system components. From real-time sensor readings, the values of the model residuals can be calculated, and the posterior probability distributions of the faults can be computed directly using the methods of Bayesian networks. From the posterior distribution of each fault, one can estimate the fault probability based on a chosen threshold and assess the severity of the fault. By eliminating the discretization and simplifications in middle steps, this approach allows us to leverage the available computational resources to provide more accurate fault probability estimates and severity assessments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1999

Initial Test Firing Results for Solid CO/GOX Cryogenic Hybrid Rocket Engine for Mars ISRU Propulsion Applications

ORBITEC is developing methods for producing, testing, and utilizing Mars-based ISRU fuel/oxidizer combinations to support low cost, planetary surface and flight propulsion and power systems. When humans explore Mars we will need to use in situ resources that are available, such as: energy (solar); gases or liquids for life support, ground transportation, and flight to and from other surface locations and Earth; and materials for shielding and building habitats and infrastructure. Probably the easiest use of Martian resources to reduce the cost of human exploration activities is the use of the carbon and oxygen readily available from the CO2 in the Mars atmosphere. ORBITEC has conducted preliminary R&D that will eventually allow us to reliably use these resources. ORBITEC is focusing on the innovative use of solid CO as a fuel. A new advanced cryogenic hybrid rocket propulsion system is suggested that will offer advantages over LCO/LOX propulsion, making it the best option for a Mars sample return vehicle and other flight vehicles. This technology could also greatly support logistics and base operations by providing a reliable and simple way to store solar or nuclear generated energy in the form of chemical energy that can be used for ground transportation (rovers/land vehicles) and planetary surface power generators. This paper describes the overall concept and the test results of the first ever solid carbon monoxide/oxygen rocket engine firing.

Rice, Eric E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Decision theory for computing variable and value ordering decisions for scheduling problems

Heuristics that guide search are critical when solving large planning and scheduling problems, but most variable and value ordering heuristics are sensitive to only one feature of the search state. One wants to combine evidence from all features of the search state into a subjective probability that a value choice is best, but there has been no solid semantics for merging evidence when it is conceived in these terms. Instead, variable and value ordering decisions should be viewed as problems in decision theory. This led to two key insights: (1) The fundamental concept that allows heuristic evidence to be merged is the net incremental utility that will be achieved by assigning a value to a variable. Probability distributions about net incremental utility can merge evidence from the utility function, binary constraints, resource constraints, and other problem features. The subjective probability that a value is the best choice is then derived from probability distributions about net incremental utility. (2) The methods used for rumor control in Bayesian Networks are the primary way to prevent cycling in the computation of probable net incremental utility. These insights lead to semantically justifiable ways to compute heuristic variable and value ordering decisions that merge evidence from all available features of the search state.

Linden, Theodore A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Discrete and Integrated Solutions for Hybrid PV Plants Without Momentary Cessation in Low SCR and High Penetration PE Grids

With the increased penetration of power electronic (PE) based loads and sources, advanced solutions may be required for the enhancement of grid stability in regions with low short circuit ratio (SCR) and high penetration PE grids. The requirement of advanced solutions arises from the gradual paradigm shift of the electric grid from the traditional electric machine dominant system to a high penetration of PE-based system. One of the major challenges with such systems in recent times is the momentary cessation during alternating current (ac) grid transmission faults. During momentary cessation, PE-based resources cease to operate, thus creating probable reliability challenges for the grid. In this paper, potential feasible options to provide continuity of operation during such scenarios are presented. The options are considered through identifying upgrades in existing and upcoming discrete development of photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage systems (ESS) termed as discrete hybrid PV plants. Additionally, an advanced concept of integrated development of PV and ESS connecting to ac transmission grid links called multi-port autonomous reconfigurable solar power plant (MARS) is evaluated. The developed new solutions are evaluated for different grid use cases and scenarios in PSCAD.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali↗

NASA NTRS2015

Success Factors in Human Space Programs - Why Did Apollo Succeed Better Than Later Programs?

The Apollo Program reached the moon, but the Constellation Program (CxP) that planned to return to the moon and go on to Mars was cancelled. Apollo is NASA's greatest achievement but its success is poorly understood. The usual explanation is that President Kennedy announced we were going to the moon, the scientific community and the public strongly supported it, and Congress provided the necessary funding. This is partially incorrect and does not actually explain Apollo's success. The scientific community and the public did not support Apollo. Like Apollo, Constellation was announced by a president and funded by Congress, with elements that continued on even after it was cancelled. Two other factors account for Apollo's success. Initially, the surprise event of Uri Gagarin's first human space flight created political distress and a strong desire for the government to dramatically demonstrate American space capability. Options were considered and Apollo was found to be most effective and technically feasible. Political necessity overrode both the lack of popular and scientific support and the extremely high cost and risk. Other NASA human space programs were either canceled, such as the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI), repeatedly threatened with cancellation, such as International Space Station (ISS), or terminated while still operational, such as the space shuttle and even Apollo itself. Large crash programs such as Apollo are initiated and continued if and only if urgent political necessity produces the necessary political will. They succeed if and only if they are technically feasible within the provided resources. Future human space missions will probably require gradual step-by-step development in a more normal environment.

Success factors↗

NASA NTRS2018

Comparison of the Integrated Medical Model Predictions to Real World ISS and STS Observations

The Human Research Program funded the development of the integrated medical model (IMM) to quantify the medical component of overall mission risk. The IMM uses Monte Carlo methodology to integrate space flight and ground medical data to assess the probability of mission medical outcomes and resource utilization. To determine the credibility of IMM output the IMM project team completed two validation studies that compare IMM output to observed medical events from a selection of Shuttle Transportation System (STS) and International Space Station (ISS) missions.

validation↗

NASA NTRS2018

Validation of the Nasa Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool

The Human Research Program funded the development of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to quantify the medical component of overall mission risk. The IMM uses Monte Carlo simulation methodology, incorporating space flight and ground medical data, to estimate the probability of mission medical outcomes and resource utilization. To determine the credibility of IMM output, the IMM project team completed two validation studies that compared IMM predicted output to observed medical events from a selection of Shuttle Transportation System (STS) and International Space Station (ISS) missions. The validation study results showed that the IMM underpredicted the occurrence of ~10% of the modeled medical conditions for the STS missions and overpredicted ~20% of the modeled medical conditions for the ISS missions. These findings imply that the strength of IMM predictions to inform decisions depends on simulated mission specifications including length. This discrepancy could result from medical recording differences between ISS and STS that possibly influence observed incidence rates, IMM combining all "mission type" data as constant occurrence rate or fixed proportion across both mission types, misspecification of symptoms to conditions, and gaps in the literature informing the model. Some of these issues will be alleviated by updating the IMM source data through incorporation of the observed validation data.

medical equipment↗

NASA NTRS2018

Validation of the NASA Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool

risk assessment↗

NASA NTRS1990

Sensitivity study of Space Station Freedom operations cost and selected user resources

The results of sensitivity studies performed to estimate probable ranges for four key Space Station parameters using the Space Station Freedom's Model for Estimating Space Station Operations Cost (MESSOC) are discussed. The variables examined are grouped into five main categories: logistics, crew, design, space transportation system, and training. The modification of these variables implies programmatic decisions in areas such as orbital replacement unit (ORU) design, investment in repair capabilities, and crew operations policies. The model utilizes a wide range of algorithms and an extensive trial logistics data base to represent Space Station operations. The trial logistics data base consists largely of a collection of the ORUs that comprise the mature station, and their characteristics based on current engineering understanding of the Space Station. A nondimensional approach is used to examine the relative importance of variables on parameters.

Accola, Anne↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reassessing Double-Ended Guillotine Break Requirements: Evidence-Based Analysis of Regulatory Assumptions After Five Decades of Nuclear Operation

After five decades of nuclear power operation encompassing more than 20,000 reactor-years across 35 countries and 647 reactors, zero double-ended guillotine breaks (DEGBs) have been documented in commercial reactor coolant systems—despite DEGB being the fundamental design-basis assumption driving Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) sizing, structural protection requirements, and containment design specifications. This report examines the basis for DEGB requirements in nuclear power plant design. The DEGB postulate assumes the instantaneous, complete circumferential severance of the largest diameter pipes in reactor coolant systems, driving major design requirements under 10 Code of Federal Regulations 50.46, General Design Criterion 4 and containment design specifications. The United States (4,880 reactor-years) and France (2,505 reactor-years) contribute the largest operational datasets. Probabilistic assessments estimate direct DEGB occurrence probabilities with extremely low event frequencies, far below the 10-5/reactor-year thresholds typically used to define non-credible events in nuclear-safety analyses; i.e., events with probability this low fall into beyond-design-basis events. Current material-science knowledge demonstrates that the ductile steel materials used in nuclear piping systems exhibit stable crack-growth behavior fundamentally incompatible with instantaneous severance. International regulatory experience, particularly Germany’s comprehensive break-preclusion implementation, and successful leak-before-break (LBB) applications in almost all of U.S. pressurized water reactor units validate that alternatives can maintain safety performance while reducing economic burden. Current DEGB protection systems impose estimated lifetime costs of hundreds of millions of dollars per unit, over the life of a plant across the nuclear industry (including ongoing costs), representing substantial resource allocation toward scenarios with extremely low probability. Although this report acknowledges uncertainties regarding long-term aging effects, potential synergistic degradation mechanisms, and site-specific seismic considerations that warrant continued evaluation as regulatory policy evolves, there remains no documented evidence that a DEGB has occurred as a consequence of the conditions or mechanisms described in this report. This report acknowledges the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) recent efforts—outlined in the draft Interim Staff Guidance (ISG) NRC-DSS-ISG-2025-XX (“Treatment of Certain Loss-of-Coolant Accident Locations as Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents Draft Interim Staff Guidance”)—to reduce overly conservative requirements for large-break loss of coolant accidents through technical justifications and exemptions. However, extensive operating experience and validated methodologies—such as LBB and in-service inspection programs—demonstrate that the probability of a DEGB in reactor coolant-loop piping is extremely low, even under seismic conditions. The authors and reviewers of this report recommend that DEGB be removed as a design-basis event through formal rulemaking, rather than case-by-case exemptions, to better reflect credible failure modes, align with current data, and align with modern, risk-informed safety analysis.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources

INTRODUCTION: Long-duration missions beyond low Earth orbit introduce new constraints to the space medical system such as the inability to evacuate to Earth, communication delays, and limitations in clinical skillsets. NASA recognizes the need to improve capabilities for autonomous care on such missions. As the medical system is developed, it is important to have an ability to evaluate the trade space of what resources will be most important. The Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources was developed for this reason, and is now a system to gauge the relative importance of medical resources in addressing medical conditions. METHODS: A list of medical conditions of potential concern for an exploration mission was referenced from the Integrated Medical Model, a probabilistic model designed to quantify in-flight medical risk. The diagnostic and treatment modalities required to address best and worst-case scenarios of each medical condition, at the terrestrial standard of care, were entered into a database. This list included tangible assets (e.g. medications) and intangible assets (e.g. clinical skills to perform a procedure). A team of physicians working within the Exploration Medical Capability Element of NASA's Human Research Program ranked each of the items listed according to its criticality. Data was then obtained from the IMM for the probability of occurrence of the medical conditions, including a breakdown of best case and worst case, during a Mars reference mission. The probability of occurrence information and criticality for each resource were taken into account during analytics performed using Tableau software. RESULTS: A database and weighting system to evaluate all the diagnostic and treatment modalities was created by combining the probability of condition occurrence data with the criticalities assigned by the physician team. DISCUSSION: Exploration Medical Capabilities research at NASA is focused on providing a medical system to support crew medical needs in the context of a Mars mission. MONSTR is a novel approach to performing a quantitative risk analysis that will assess the relative value of individual resources needed for the diagnosis and treatment of various medical conditions. It will provide the operational and research communities at NASA with information to support informed decisions regarding areas of research investment, future crew training, and medical supplies manifested as part of the exploration medical system.

Shah, R. V.↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) Model: A Geospatial Platform for Technical Potential and Supply Curve Modeling

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a platform for detailed assessment of renewable energy (RE) resources and their geospatial intersection with grid infrastructure and land use characteristics. The reV model currently supports photovoltaic (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and land-based wind turbine technologies. Modules in the reV framework function at different spatial and temporal resolutions, allowing for assessment of resource potential, technical potential and supply curves at varying levels of detail. The platform runs on NREL's High Performance Computing system, providing scalable and efficient performance from a single location all the way up to continental scales, for a single year or decades of time series resource data. Coupled with NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM), reV supports resource assessment from 5-minute to hourly temporal resolution and provides for analysis of long-term (i.e., year-on-year) variability of RE generation (e.g., interannual variability and exceedance probabilities). Technical potential is measured as a function of resource potential and limitations put on developable land area defined by the user. For example, the user can limit development by land ownership, terrain, land use/cover, and urban areas, as well as custom inputs. Technology, grid interconnection and operation costs, based on the latest market data and future projections, are also embedded in the model. The supply curve module is a spatial sorting algorithm based on plant siting, grid interconnection cost, and regional competition, which provides a geographically discrete estimate of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and supply (i.e., capacity) for specific renewable technologies. The reV model currently provides broad coverage across North America, South and Central Asia, South America and South Africa to inform national- and international-scale analyses as well as regional infrastructure and deployment planning.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning and shallow groundwater chemistry to identify geothermal prospects in the Great Basin, USA

This study discovers various geothermal prospects in the Great Basin, USA based on shallow groundwater chemical (geochemical) data. The geochemical data are expected to include hidden (latent) information that is a proxy for geothermal prospectivity. We processed the sparse geochemical data in the Great Basin at 14,341 locations including 18 attributes. Next, a non-negative matrix factorization with customized k-means clustering is applied to the geochemical data matrix that automatically finds three hidden geothermal signatures representing modestly, moderately, and highly confident geothermal prospects. The algorithm also evaluated the probability of occurrence of these types of resources through the studied region. There is a consistency between regional geothermal prospectivity as estimated by our ML methodology and the traditional play fairway analysis conducted over a portion of the study area. We also identify the dominant data attributes associated with each signature. Finally, our ML analyses allow us to reconstruct attributes from sparse into continuous over the study domain. The predicted continuous attributes can be used for future detailed geothermal explorations in the Great Basin.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Solar Energy Resource for Puerto Rico

After Hurricane Maria, multiple U.S. Department of Energy laboratories studied the state of the electric grid in Puerto Rico and analyzed grid resilience and grid integration of renewable energy. As part of the work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, researchers created new solar resource data, conducted a technical potential and supply curve analysis, and studied the interannual variability of the solar resource. A new methodology was developed to downscale solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from a 4-km x 4-km spatial and 30-minute temporal resolution to a 2 km x 2 km and 5-minute resolution. This methodology primarily used simple physical principles to develop high-resolution cloud properties which were then used to compute solar radiation. The high-resolution datasets were validated against ground measurements and the error metrics were found to be similar to the original lower resolution dataset. Using 20 years of downscaled data from the NSRDB multi-year capacity factors for photovoltaics (PV) were developed for both single-axis tracking and fixed latitude-tilt configurations. Use of the multi-year data provides the ability to understand variability in capacity factors due to variability in weather over a long period of time. For Puerto Rico the coastal regions were found to have significant higher capacity factors than inland. Using land-use and terrain information a technical potential analysis was conducted for Puerto Rico. This analysis restricted single PV plant development to a maximum of 100 MW nameplate capacity. The nameplate capacity for each municipality were then determined. Based on our assumptions, 56 of the 78 total municipalities of Puerto Rico contain some level of solar capacity. Most of the interior municipalities did not have any capacity because of the geographic exclusions used in this study. The lowest capacity for a PV plant observed in a municipality was 10 MW. The maximum capacity within a county was 2,000 MW. Further a supply curve analysis was conducted by taking the results of the technical potential and quantifying system and transmission costs. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for each theoretical PV plant site, and the levelized cost of transmission was added to the LCOE to produce a total cost estimate for each site. The results of the supply curve analysis allow for a relative comparison of the cost for integrating new PV capacity into the grid. This analysis indicates that cheaper total LCOE sites tend to be larger in capacity. The total capacity in this study was found to be far beyond the maximum peak load for the island. However, this study does not consider the economic and market potential for development. The cumulative capacity presented in this study assumes that the best locations are developed first and ignores the complex decision paths for new power plant development. Therefore, this analysis can only be treated as illustrative. Finally this study investigates the impact of inter-annual variability of resource using a variety of metrices including probability of exceedance and variation in capacity factor and LCOE. This study demonstrates that the capacity factor or LCOE could vary by over 10% year to year. This clearly indicates the risks involved in using any particular year of data and clearly points to the use of multi-year data to reduce some of the risks related to variability in weather.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗