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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

Fundamental limitations on photoisomerization from thermodynamic resource theories

Small, out-of-equilibrium, and quantum systems defy simple thermodynamic expressions. Such systems are exemplified by molecular switches, which exchange heat with a bath. These molecules can photoisomerize, or change conformation, or switch, on absorbing light. The photoisomerization probability depends on kinetic details that couple the molecule’s energetics to its dissipation. Therefore, a simple, general, thermodynamic-style bound on the photoisomerization probability seems out of reach. We derive such a bound using a resource theory. The resource-theory framework is a set of mathematical tools, developed in quantum information theory, used to generalize thermodynamics to small and quantum settings. From this toolkit has been derived a generalization of the second law, the thermomajorization preorder. We use thermomajorization to upper-bound the photoisomerization probability. Then, we compare the bound with an equilibrium prediction and with a Lindbladian model. We identify a realistic parameter regime in which the Lindbladian evolution saturates the thermomajorization bound. We also quantify the energy coherence in the electronic degree of freedom, and we argue that this coherence cannot promote photoisomerization. Overall, this work illustrates how quantum-information-theoretic thermodynamics can elucidate complex quantum processes in nature, experiments, and synthetics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

AMF diversity promotes plant community phosphorus acquisition and reduces carbon costs per unit of phosphorus

Plants may benefit from more diverse communities of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), as functional complementarity of AMF may allow for increased resource acquisition, and because a high AMF diversity increases the probability of plants matching with an optimal AMF symbiont. Here, we repeatedly radiolabeled plants and AMF in the glasshouse over c. 9 months to test how AMF species richness (SR) influences the exchange of plant C ( 14 C) for AMF P ( 32 P & 33 P) and resulting shoot nutrients and mass from a biodiversity–ecosystem functioning perspective. Plant P acquisition via AMF increased with sown AMF SR, as did shoot biomass, shoot P, and shoot N. The rate of plant C transferred to AMF for this P (C:P) decreased with sown AMF SR. Plants in plant communities benefit from inoculation with a variety of AMF species via more favorable resource exchange. Surprisingly, this effect did not differ among functionally distinct communities comprised entirely of either legumes, nonlegume forbs, or C3 grasses.

arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi↗

Perturbative readout-error mitigation for near-term quantum computers

Readout errors on near-term quantum computers can introduce significant error to the empirical probability distribution sampled from the output of a quantum circuit. These errors can be mitigated by classical postprocessing given the access of an experimental response matrix that describes the error associated with the measurement of each computational basis state. However, the resources required to characterize a complete response matrix and to compute the corrected probability distribution scale exponentially with the number of qubits, n . In this work, we modify standard matrix inversion techniques using perturbative approximations with significantly reduced complexity and bounded error when the likelihood of high-order bit-flip events is strongly suppressed. Given a characteristic error rate q , we discuss a method to recover the probability of the all-zeros bit string p 0 by sampling only a small subspace of the response matrix before inverting readout error, resulting in a relative speedup of poly [ 2 n / ( n w ) ] , which we motivate using a simplified error model for which the approximation incurs only O ( q w ) error for some integer w . We then provide a generalized technique to efficiently recover full output distributions with O ( q w ) error in the perturbative limit. These approximate techniques for readout-error correction may greatly accelerate near-term quantum computing applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Resilient Integrated Resource Planning Framework for Transmission Systems: Analysis and Optimization

This article presents a resilient Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) framework designed for transmission systems, with a specific focus on analyzing and optimizing responses to High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) events. The framework aims to improve the resilience of transmission networks in the face of extreme events by prioritizing the assessment of events with significant consequences. Unlike traditional reliability-based planning methods that average the impact of various outage durations, this work adopts a metric based on the proximity of outage lines to generators to select HILP events. The system’s baseline resilience is evaluated by calculating load curtailment in different parts of the network resulting from HILP outage events. The transmission network is represented as an undirected graph. Graph-theoretic techniques are used to identify islands with or without generators, potentially forming segmented grids or microgrids. This article introduces Expected Load Curtailment (ELC) as a metric to quantify the system’s resilience. The framework allows for the re-evaluation of system resilience by integrating additional generating resources to achieve desired resilience levels. Optimization is performed in the re-evaluation stage to determine the optimal placement of distributed energy resources (DERs) for enhancing resilience, i.e., minimizing ELC. Case studies on the IEEE 24-bus system illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. In the broader context, this resilient IRP framework aligns with energy sustainability goals by promoting robust and resilient transmission networks, as the optimal placement of DERs for resilience enhancement not only strengthens the system’s ability to withstand and recover from disruptions but also contributes to efficient resource utilization, advancing the overarching goal of energy sustainability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Resilient Microgrid Scheduling Considering Multi-Level Load Priorities

In this paper, we propose a novel resilient microgrid scheduling model considering the multi-level load priorities. The resiliency of the microgrid is guaranteed by quickly adjusting the output of committed local resources and shedding the loads with low priorities when the power supply from the main grid is interrupted. Considering the uncertainty of renewable energy resources and loads as well as exchanged power at PCC, the probability of successful islanding (PSI) is used to quantify the resiliency of electricity supply for various loads with different priorities. Then, the multi-level priorities are enforced through chance constrains. Results of numerical simulation validate the proposed resilient scheduling model. In addition, the impacts of resiliency requirement of loads with high priority on the resiliency of loads with low priority are analyzed as well.

Liu, Guodong↗

Modified Eigen-Decomposition-based Interval Analysis (MEDIA) for Power System Dynamic State Estimation

The Bayesian approach has been used for the dynamic state estimation (DSE) of a power system. However, due to the complexity of noise resources, it is difficult to quantify measurement and process noise using probability density functions (PDFs). To overcome the difficulty, the authors of this paper propose a modified eigen-decomposition-based interval analysis (MEDIA) method, which employs bounds instead of PDFs to quantify the noise, and uses the eigen decomposition method to reduce the negative impact of the overestimation problem. Using the simulation data generated from IEEE 16-machine and IEEE 10-machine systems, it is shown that the proposed MEDIA method can estimate the hard boundaries of dynamic states in real time. Furthermore, comparison with the forward-backward propagation method and the extended set-membership filter also shows that the proposed MEDIA method performs better by providing narrower boundaries in the DSE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

1.3.3.402 - Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework

The Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework tool will guide users through an assessment and detailed analysis of a hydropower plant's operations. The tool will then provide results and data to inform effective cybersecurity investment decision-making and planning. The results will help managers understand the risk probability of cyberattacks on their facilities and how best to use resources to mitigate those risks.

cybersecurity↗

Strengthening Resilience: Florida Resident Voices on Resource Needs During Power Outages

Extreme weather events related to climate change, and an aging electricity infrastructure are disrupting reliable electricity services to a greater degree. Further, previous research has found that more socially vulnerable populations are more likely to live in areas with a higher probability of power outages. Here, this study examines the issues that people face during power outages and the resources that help individuals maintain resilience during power outages caused by extreme weather events in socially vulnerable communities. Using qualitative data from focus groups with 56 individuals in Central and North Florida, the research highlights lived experiences during outages and difficulties using and accessing resources during these conditions. Based on a qualitative review of the focus group discussions, this paper explores the solutions and support systems residents believe would improve their ability to cope. The findings offer insights to guide policy and strategic planning, with the goal of strengthening personal preparedness and response by focusing on the resources people consider most helpful for enduring frequent and severe outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

EARLY HAWAIIANS AND VOLCANIC HEAT

This research serves as the first-known compilation of accounts of early Hawaiians using volcanic heat. Western explorers in the 1800s wrote about native Hawaiians near $K\bar{i}lauea$ Volcano using volcanic heat for cooking and bathing. They cooked their food wrapped in leaves underground or above a steam crack at Sulphur Banks, $K\bar{i}lauea$ Iki, and the $N\bar{a}pau$ Crater Trail. Early Hawaiians bathed in the warm waters of Waiwelawela for health. To confirm the presence of volcanic heat, this study used geothermal resource maps by the Hawai‘i Play Fairway project. According to a probability map for volcanic heat, the areas where Hawaiians used volcanic heat have a probability of volcanic heat of 0.8 to 1.0. On a map with temperatures of water wells, water wells close to where Hawaiians used volcanic heat have elevated temperatures. Historically, the areas where Hawaiians used volcanic heat experienced volcanic steam release, volcanic eruptions, and lava flows.

Geology↗

Integration of Experimental Hydroprocessing and FCC Data with Process (Aspen Plus) and Refinery Optimization (Aspen PIMS) Models

NREL's Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis (ESMA) team develops process models in Aspen Plus to support techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA) of conversion pathways from renewable and circular resources to fuels and chemicals. These tools are being applied to assess probable operational constraints or bottlenecks associated with refinery co-processing and repurposing opportunities. The team also utilizes optimizable refinery models to quantify opportunities for biofuel and bioproduct pathways through integration with existing refining infrastructure. The goals of analysis are to model the transition of refineries to renewable and circular feedstocks and quantify the costs production and CO2 abatement through utilization of existing refineries. At the core of the ESMA team's work is the process data derived from conversion experiments on hydroprocessing and fluid catalytic cracking performed at NREL. The objective of this presentation is to highlight new analysis approaches and capabilities in pathway analysis and refinery optimization modeling with specific emphasis on integration of experimental data.

BIOMASS FUELS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Cyber risk assessment and investment optimization using game theory and ML-based anomaly detection and mitigation for wide-area control in smart grids

The electric power grid is increasingly becoming susceptible to cyber attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in the smart grid control, information, and physical layers. Successful cyber attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the social and economic well-being of any nation all over the globe. It has, thus, become imperative to secure the smart grid against such adversarial actions to ensure stable, secure, and reliable operation of the grid. The existing research and industry practices prove to be inadequate in terms of providing pragmatic and effective defense methodologies and measures for long-term cybersecurity planning and real-time cybersecurity for grid operation. For example, existing works lack models that incorporate uncertain behavior of cyber-attackers and pragmatic defense measures for cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity investment optimization which often provide unreliable and strictly qualitative solutions to these problems. At the same time, with the growing number of cyber incidents in the grid, there still exists a need to develop attack-resilient algorithms for wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) applications like the wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for Flexible AC Transmissions Systems (FACTS) that lack in scalable and feasible solutions from the cybersecurity perspective. This dissertation proposes novel models and methodologies for: (1) Cybersecurity planning, and (2) Cybersecurity for system operation. The cybersecurity planning is achieved through cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity resource investment optimization for long-term cybersecurity of the grid using game theory and attack-defense trees. Cybersecurity for system operation consists of development of cyber anomaly detection and mitigation algorithms for flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controller-based wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) using machine learning (ML), and software defined networking-based moving target defense network routing for achieving real-time cyber-physical security for grid operations. This is followed by hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) implementation and evaluation of these attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies showcasing their feasibility in a close to real-world environment. For cybersecurity planning, a novel approach involving a combination of game theory and attack defense trees (ADT) for optimal cybersecurity resource allocation in the smart grid is proposed. This methodology involves modeling of the cyber-physical smart grid substations as ADTs, defining attacker costs, defense costs, and attack probabilities for attack access points. Using game theoretical formulation, optimal defense strategies for the defender of the system to invest cybersecurity resources in the grid are obtained. Additionally, a game-theoretic framework is developed for quantitative cyber-physical risk assessment of the grid under a dynamically changing cyber threat space and uncertain behavior of cyber attackers which is further used to optimize investments in the smart grid's cybersecurity resources. The attacker, defender, and the smart grid system are modeled while incorporating attacker-stochasticity and federal guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity. This allows quantification of threat, vulnerabilities, and attack impact of the grid for quantitative risk assessment. The defender's budget to invest in the security resources in the grid is optimized based on the strategies leading to minimum system risk. The evaluation of the proposed solutions highlight the feasibility for practical implementation of these methodologies and algorithms in the smart grid, while taking the federal requirements and guidelines for smart grid security into consideration. For achieving cybersecurity for system operation, attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies are developed specifically for FACTS-based WAVCS. Anomaly detection and mitigation in the WAVCS are achieved using algorithms based on machine learning which involves offline training and testing of ML models with CPS datasets incorporating physics-based features that allow accurate distinction between system faults and cyber attacks. For attack prevention, a methodology based on software defined network (SDN)-based moving target defense (MTD) network routing is proposed that enables prevention of Denial of Service (DoS) type attacks on the smart grid communication system. Subsequently, these methodologies and algorithms are implemented and evaluated on an HIL testbed that allows for real-time attack prevention, detection, and mitigation of emulated cyber attacks on the WAVCS in a close to real-world environment. The results show highly accurate and efficient performance of the implemented algorithms and methodologies with the smart grid system operating within the NERC's system operation limits even in the presence of DoS and data integrity cyber attacks. This work opens up future research opportunities in other directions such as (1) Expanding cybersecurity planning methodologies to real-time cyber contingency analysis with different game formulations; and (2) Applying the cybersecurity for system operation algorithms to broader categories of wide-area control applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Stochastic Home Energy Management Systems with Varying Controllable Resources

This paper studies the performance of a model predictive control (MPC) algorithm in a home energy management system (HEMS) as the set of controllable resources varies and under both a constant and a time-of-use (TOU) electricity price structure. The set of controllable resources includes residentially-owned photovoltaic (PV) panels, a home battery system (HBS), an electric vehicle (EV), and a home heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system. The HEMS optimally schedules the set of controllable resources given user preferences such as indoor thermal comfort and electricity cost sensitivity. The home energy management system is built on a chance constrained, MPC-based algorithm, where the chance constraint ensures the indoor thermal comfort is satisfied with a high probability given uncertainty in the outdoor temperature and solar irradiance forecasts. Simulation results for varying sets of controllable resources under two different electricity price structures demonstrate the variation in the HEMS control with respect to HBS operation, electricity cost, and grid power usage.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Renewable Energy Potential Model: Hawaii Geothermal Supply Curves

This dataset extends the development of the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to include geothermal energy, with a specific focus on Hawaii. Provided here are the results of two scenarios that were modeled for geothermal energy in Hawaii: binary enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) at a depth of 2.5 km and hydrothermal binary systems at a depth of 1.5 km. The resource data for both scenarios were derived from Lautze and Haskins (2024) using an exponential method. The PFA probability of heat map was used as a look up table for which temperature gradient to use (Lautze and Haskins, 2024). The dataset provides geospatial and techno-economic details for evaluating geothermal energy potential. It includes spatial coordinates, estimated capacity factors, developable area, resource potential, and annual energy production metrics. Economic details such as levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), site development costs, transmission costs, and fixed-charge rates are also included. The reV model, originally developed for wind and solar energy, incorporates these variables to evaluate deployment constraints related to land use, environmental and cultural factors, and grid integration.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Decision Support Tool for Solar Energy Cybersecurity Policy and Regulation

The Decision Support Tool helps users address four discrete challenges: (1) complex requirements of relevant codes and standards, (2) technical complexity of solar assets, (3) undefined cyber risk severity, and (4) unclear roles and responsibilities. Content includes an analysis of cyber vulnerability risks, a decision support resource for policymakers to mitigate cyber risks to solar photovoltaic systems, and background resources for informing policy development. A key component of this tool is the Probable Risk Assessment (PRA), based on established, formal variables, models, and consequences, which helps users understand the determined risk and assigned ownership of the physical components. It helps states draw logical lines between vulnerabilities and mitigative solutions, of which some have been further detailed as Cybersecurity Advisory Team for State Solar (CATSS) tools.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Thermal Overloading Risk Mitigation With a Semi-Analytical Probabilistic Model on Branch Current

A semi-analytical formulation is presented in this paper for the probability computation of branch current in multiphase systems. The developed formula is derived based on the linear power flow model in rectangular coordinates. The system uncertainty injections can be renewable energy resources or loads and are modeled using a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). The developed formula can be used to compute the line current violation probability as well as integrate into optimal power flow problem as chance-constraint relaxation. Here, the proposed formula is first compared with the Matlab embedded numerical integration function to show its performance. Besides, the semi-analytical formula is validated and compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method using the IEEE 123-bus system, EPRI Ckt5, and Ckt7 systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Resilient Distribution System Restoration with Equitable Load Shedding

A methodology is proposed for the improvement of electric distribution system resilience to high-impact, low-probability catastrophic events. An approach for dynamic network reconfiguration and coordination of distributed energy resources is introduced to assist in restoration efforts. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program that minimizes generation costs, the cost of lost load, and costs associated with equitable load shedding, while respecting operational limits of generation, loads, and the network. Constraints are imposed on binary switching variables to ensure equitable load shedding in emergency situations. Numerical validation of the proposed approach is conducted on an example distribution feeder, and case studies are performed to analyze the impact of various parameters in the optimization problem formulation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Defender Policy Evaluation and Resource Allocation against MITRE ATT&CK Data and Evaluations

Protecting against multi-step attacks of uncertain duration and timing forces defenders into an indefinite, always ongoing, resource-intensive response. To effectively allocate resources, a defender must be able to analyze multi-step attacks under assumption of constantly allocating resources against an uncertain stream of potentially undetected attacks. To achieve this goal, we present a novel methodology that applies a game-theoretic approach to the attack, attacker, and defender data derived from MITRE´s ATT&CK ® Framework. Time to complete attack steps is drawn from a probability distribution determined by attacker and defender strategies and capabilities. This constraints attack success parameters and enables comparing different defender resource allocation strategies. By approximating attacker-defender games as Markov processes, we represent the attacker-defender interaction, estimate the attack success parameters, determine the effects of attacker and defender strategies, and maximize opportunities for defender strategy improvements against an uncertain stream of attacks. This novel representation and analysis of multi-step attacks enables defender policy optimization and resource allocation, which we illustrate using the data from MITRE´ s APT3 ATT&CK ® Framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Measuring the robustness of predictive probability for early stopping in two-group comparisons

We report physical experiments are often expensive and time-consuming. Test engineers must certify the compatibility of aircraft and their weapon systems before they can be deployed in the field, but the testing required is time consuming, expensive, and resource limited. Adopting Bayesian adaptive designs is a promising way to borrow from the successes seen in the clinical trials domain. The use of predictive probability (PP) to stop testing early and make faster decisions is particularly appealing given the aforementioned constraints. Given the high-consequence nature of the tests performed in the national security space, a strong understanding of new methods is required before being deployed. Although PP has been thoroughly studied for binary data, there is less work with continuous data, where many reliability studies are interested in certifying the specification limits of components. A simulation study evaluating the robustness of this approach indicates early stopping based on PP is reasonably robust to minor assumption violations, especially when only a few interim analyses are conducted. The simulation study also compares PP to conditional power, showing its relative strengths and weaknesses. A post-hoc analysis exploring whether release requirements of a weapon system from an aircraft are within specification with desired reliability resulted in stopping the experiment early and saving 33% of the experimental runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗