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This paper discusses new joint work by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of California at Davis sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to develop a security assessment instrument for the software development and maintenance life cycle.
Anticipating the implementation of advanced SiC/SiC composites into turbine section components of future aero-propulsion engines, the primary objective of this on-going study is to develop physics-based analytical and finite-element modeling tools to predict the effects of constituent creep on SiC/SiC component service life. A second objective is to understand how to possibly manipulate constituent materials and processes in order to minimize these effects. Focusing on SiC/SiC components experiencing through-thickness stress gradients (e.g., airfoil leading edge), prior NASA creep modeling studies showed that detrimental residual stress effects can develop globally within the component walls which can increase the risk of matrix cracking. These studies assumed that the SiC/SiC composites behaved as isotropic viscoelastic continuum materials with creep behavior that was linear and symmetric with stress and that the creep parameters could be obtained from creep data as experimentally measured in-plane in the fiber direction of advanced thin-walled 2D SiC/SiC panels. The present study expands on those prior efforts by including constituent behavior with non-linear stress dependencies in order to predict such key creep-related SiC/SiC properties as time-dependent matrix stress, constituent creep and content effects on composite creep rates and rupture times, and stresses on fiber and matrix during and after creep.
Application cell matrix providing quantitative boundary criteria for selecting components to meet reliability requirements of aerospace systems
The NASA commitment to human space flight includes continuing to fly astronauts on the ISS until it is decommissioned as well as possibly returning astronauts to the moon or having astronauts venture to an asteroid or Mars. As missions leave low Earth orbit and explore deeper space, BHP supports and conducts research to enable a risk posture that considers the risk of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric disorders “acceptable given mitigations,” for pre-, in, and post-flight.The Human System Risk Board (HSRB) determines the risk of various mission scenarios using a likelihood (per person per year) by consequences matrix examining those risks across two categories—long term health and operational (within mission). Colors from a stoplight signal are used by HSRB and quickly provide a means of assessing overall perceived risk for a particular mission scenario. Risk associated with the current six month missions on the ISS are classified as “accepted with monitoring” while planetary missions, such as a mission to Mars, are recognized to be a “red” risk that requires mitigation to ensure mission success.Currently, the HSRB deems that the risk of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric outcomes requires mitigation for planetary missions owing to long duration isolation and radiation exposure (see Table 1). While limited research evidence exists from spaceflight, it is well known anecdotally that the shift from the two week shuttle missions to the six month ISS missions renders the psychological stressors of space as more salient over longer duration missions. Shuttle astronauts were expected just to tolerate any stressors that arose during their mission and were successful at doing so (Whitmire et al, 2013). While it is possible to deal with stressors such as social isolation and to live with incompatible crewmembers for two weeks on shuttle, “ignoring it” is much less likely to be a successful coping mechanism on station. For the longer missions of the ISS, astronauts require a larger, more robust set of coping skills and more psychological support. Evidence of this are the number of BHP’s Operational Psychology (Op Psy) staff who have been awarded silver Snoopys by long duration astronauts†, in the statements of praise for the Op Psy and Family Support Office teams, and in the written and oral statements from flown astronauts regarding difficulty of longer missions and how much Op Psy helped.
Successful large-scale underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in depleted gas reservoirs depends on the integrity of the overlying caprock to prevent hydrogen loss during cyclic injection and depletion. Prior studies on crushed Marcellus shale, a potential caprock, indicate that cyclic hydrogen injection and depletion induces microstructural changes, increasing porosity and permeability. However, the extent of these changes in intact shale remains unclear. This study presents a strain-based experimental approach to quantify volumetric strain evolution in intact Marcellus shale matrix under unconstrained stress conditions. A quadrant-shaped shale sample without visible fractures underwent eight hydrostatic pore-pressure cycles (injection to 1500 psi and depletion to 500 psi in 250 psi steps). Linear strain gauges measured strain in three orthogonal directions. Results indicate progressive plastic strain accumulation, leading to an ∼12% increase in matrix porosity after eight cycles, with an estimated 19% increase after 30 cycles. This porosity increase follows a logarithmic trend, suggesting a diminishing effect in later cycles. Additionally, permeability and diffusive mass flux are projected to rise by ∼70% over 30 cycles, enhancing hydrogen migration risk. The shale matrix also exhibited mechanical stiffening over successive cycles, limiting large-scale deformation but not preventing porosity enhancement. A new parameter, α, was introduced to characterize shale sensitivity to cyclic loading, aiding UHS caprock assessments. These findings underscore the necessity of incorporating cyclic loading effects in UHS site selection and operational strategies to ensure long-term storage integrity.
Stirling-based power conversion system could represent a critical enabling technology for future NASA missions, offering significantly enhanced power efficiency over traditional thermoelectric systems. To ensure the successful infusion of this technology into deep space and planetary surface missions, a rigorous evaluation of its maturity and associated risks is essential. The objective of this Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) is to determine the current technology readiness level (TRL) of the Stirling power convertor and identify key technical risks and challenges associated with its maturation and potential infusion into a targeted flight system. The evaluation process will rigorously follow the NASA TRA procedure: (1) determining the requirements that underpin the design, function, and performance; (2) finding and listing all new technology elements (NTEs) and critical technology elements (CTEs); (3) identifying the level of integration assumed for the assessment; and (4) assessing the TRL for each NTE and CTE. The overall subassembly TRL will then be determined via a roll-up using the “weakest link” criterion, culminating in a final (5) assessment of risks to further progression of maturity. This paper will present the results of a comprehensive technology readiness assessment (TRA) conducted on the Stirling-based dynamic power conversion subassembly, excluding the radioisotope heat source. The paper will also describe a detailed breakdown of the TRL roll-up and a matrix of identified risks and recommended mitigation paths, along with identified key technical risks and challenges to achieve the required long-duration performance. Key Words: Radioisotope Power Conversion, Technology Readiness Assessment
The geometric viewpoint identifies the choice of a correlation matrix for the simulation of cost risk with the pairwise choice of data vectors corresponding to the parameters used to obtain cost risk. The correlation coefficient is the cosine of the angle between the data vectors after translation to an origin at the mean and normalization for magnitude. Thus correlation is equivalent to expressing the data in terms of a non orthogonal basis. To understand the many resulting phenomena requires the use of the tensor concept of raising the index to transform the measured and observed covariant components into contravariant components before vector addition can be applied. The geometric viewpoint also demonstrates that correlation and covariance are geometric properties, as opposed to purely statistical properties, of the variates. Thus, variates from different distributions may be correlated, as desired, after selection from independent distributions. By determining the principal components of the correlation matrix, variates with the desired mean, magnitude, and correlation can be generated through linear transforms which include the eigenvalues and the eigenvectors of the correlation matrix. The conversion of the data to a non orthogonal basis uses a compound linear transformation which distorts or stretches the data space. Hence, the correlated data does not have the same properties as the uncorrelated data used to generate it. This phenomena is responsible for seemingly strange observations such as the fact that the marginal distributions of the correlated data can be quite different from the distributions used to generate the data. The joint effect of statistical distributions and correlation remains a fertile area for further research. In terms of application to cost estimating, the geometric approach demonstrates that the estimator must have data and must understand that data in order to properly choose the correlation matrix appropriate for a given estimate. There is a general feeling by employers and managers that the field of cost requires little technical or mathematical background. Contrary to that opinion, this paper demonstrates that a background in mathematics equivalent to that needed for typical engineering and scientific disciplines at the masters or doctorate level is appropriate within the field of cost risk.
This viewgraph presentation reviews the use of risk management in Extravehicular Activities (EVA). The contents include: 1) EVA Office at NASA - JSC; 2) EVA Project Risk Management: Why and When; 3) EVA Office Risk Management: How; 4) Criteria for Closing a Risk; 5) Criteria for Accepting a Risk; 6) ISS IRMA Reference Card Data Entry Requirement s; 7) XA/ EVA Office Risk Activity Summary; 8) EVA Significant Change Summary; 9) Integrated Risk Management Application (XA) Matrix, March 31, 2004; 10) ISS Watch Item: 50XX Summary Report; and 11) EVA Project RM Usefulness
The Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM) Project u7ill study and solve systems-level integration issues for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), through the design and development of a ground-based facility for developing revolutionary integrated systems for joint human-robotic missions. This paper describes a Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of human space missions that was developed to help define the direction and priorities for AIM. Risk analysis is required for all major NASA programs and has been used for shuttle, station, and Mars lander programs. It is a prescribed part of early planning and is necessary during concept definition, even before mission scenarios and system designs exist. PRA cm begin when little failure data are available, and be continually updated and refined as detail becomes available. PRA provides a basis for examining tradeoffs among safety, reliability, performance, and cost. The objective of AIM's PRA is to indicate how risk can be managed and future human space missions enabled by the AIM Project. Many critical events can cause injuries and fatalities to the crew without causing loss of vehicle or mission. Some critical systems are beyond AIM's scope, such as propulsion and guidance. Many failure-causing events can be mitigated by conducting operational tests in AIM, such as testing equipment and evaluating operational procedures, especially in the areas of communications and computers, autonomous operations, life support, thermal design, EVA and rover activities, physiological factors including habitation, medical equipment, and food, and multifunctional tools and repairable systems. AIM is well suited to test and demonstrate the habitat, life support, crew operations, and human interface. Because these account for significant crew, systems performance, and science risks, AIM will help reduce mission risk, and missions beyond LEO are far enough in the future that AIM can have significant impact.
Astronauts perform physically demanding tasks and risk incurring musculoskeletal injuries during both groundbased training and missions. Increased injury rates throughout the history of the U.S. space program have been attributed to numerous factors, including an aging astronaut corps, increased Weightless Environment Training Facility (WETF) and Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) training to construct the International Space Station, and improved clinical operations that promote injury prevention and reporting. With NASA program changes through the years (including retirement of the Shuttle program) and an improved training environment (including a new astronaut gym), there is no surveillance program to systematically track injury rates. A limited number of research projects have been conducted over the past 20 years to evaluate musculoskeletal injuries: (1) to evaluate orthopedic injuries from 1987 to 1995, (2) to describe upper extremity injuries, (3) to evaluate EVA spacesuit training related injuries, and (4) to evaluate in-flight musculoskeletal injuries. Nevertheless, there has been no consistently performed comprehensive assessment of musculoskeletal injuries among astronauts. The Barell Injury Diagnosis Matrix was introduced at the 2001 meeting of the International Collaborative Effort (ICE) on Injury Statistics. The Matrix proposes a standardized method of classifying body region by nature of injury. Diagnoses are coded using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) coding system. The purpose of this study is to assess the usefulness and complexity of the Barell Injury Diagnosis Matrix to classify and track musculoskeletal injuries among NASA astronauts.
Safe operations of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace with beyond visual line-of-sight (BVLOS) flights demand robust risk monitoring of airspace as well as of people and property on ground. One of the safety critical factors for UAV flights is the risk of collision with static and dynamic obstacles in proximity to its flight path. This paper presents a detailed formulation of risk of obstacle collision incorporating the effects of off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability and environmental disturbances such as wind gusts. The risk is represented in terms of a matrix with rows corresponding to the likelihood of occurrence of collision and columns representing severity of collision to the vehicle and surrounding structures. Risk likelihood is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) that compiles knowledge from related Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEAs) and Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to determine the probability of collision based on on-board sensor measurements indicative of vehicle health and controllability. Risk severity is computed utilizing a point-mass 3D kinematic model of the vehicle in presence of wind. The proposed risk factor is demonstrated on real flight data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. Effect of varying wind conditions, level of controllability and obstacle measurement noise on the risk factor is demonstrated. The proposed approach enables risk-informed decision making for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events in autonomous systems.
Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) involve fracturing low permeability material to establish well connectivity and then injecting and circulating fluid into the fractured subsurface for geothermal power production. Changes in fracture aperture from contraction of the cooling matrix rock may alter network connectivity and risk thermal short-circuiting. Thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models are a useful tool to study these processes. However, as fracture networks are complex, and data may be limited, fracture networks in THM models are often stochastically generated. Given reliance on stochastic fracture networks and THM modeling to represent the subsurface and assess productivity of EGS, increased understanding of the influence of such statistically derived fracture networks on flow and heat transport in THM models is needed. Here, a new fracture process model is developed in the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN to stochastically generate fracture families and simulate changes in fracture aperture over time due to temperature changes of the rock matrix. Sixty-four different fracture networks ranging from well to poorly-connected, are modeled in PFLOTRAN with and without mechanical processes (THM vs TH). Results indicate that for well-connected fracture networks, thermal short-circuiting is less of a concern due to the abundance of available alternative flowpaths. For poorly-connected fracture networks, inclusion of mechanical processes showed steep thermal drawdown coincident with increase in fracture aperture along developing colder flowpaths, demonstrating the risk of thermal short-circuiting. Simulations with additional, larger fractures engineered to establish connectivity in a poorly-fractured subsurface, indicate that while stochastic variation of fracture orientation of the background network had limited influence, such variation in the engineered fractures significantly affected flow and heat transport.
Spaceflight adversely affects the skeleton, posing a substantial risk to astronaut's health during long duration missions. The reduced bone mass observed in growing animals following spaceflight is due at least in part to inadequate bone formation by osteoblasts. Thus, it is of central importance to identify basic cellular mechanisms underlying normal bone formation. The fundamental ideas underlying our research are that interactions between extracellular matrix proteins, integrin adhesion receptors, cytoplasmic signaling and cytoskeletal proteins are key ingredients for the proper functioning of osteoblasts, and that gravity impacts these interactions. As an in vitro model system we used primary fetal rat calvarial cells which faithfully recapitulate osteoblast differentiation characteristically observed in vivo. We showed that specific integrin receptors ((alpha)3(beta)1), ((alpha)5(beta)1), ((alpha)8(betal)1) and extracellular matrix proteins (fibronectin, laminin) were needed for the differentiation of immature osteoblasts. In the course of maturation, cultured osteoblasts switched from depending on fibronectin and laminin for differentiation to depending on these proteins for their very survival. Furthermore, we found that manipulating the gravity vector using ground-based models resulted in activation of key intracellular survival signals generated by integrin/extracellular matrix interactions. We are currently testing the in vivo relevance of some of these observations using targeted transgenic technology. In conclusion, mechanical factors including gravity may participate in regulating survival via cellular interactions with the extracellular matrix. This leads us to speculate that microgravity adversely affects the survival of osteoblasts and contributes to spaceflight-induced osteoporosis.
The planned use of autonomous robots in space applications has generated many new safety problems. This thesis assesses safety of autonomous robot systems through the structure of a proposed three-dimensional matrix safety frame. By identifying the common points of accidents and fatalities involving terrestrial robots, reviewing terrestrial robot safety standards, and modifying and extending these results to space applications, hazards are identified and their associated risks assessed. Three components of the safeguarding dimension of the matrix safety frame, safeguarding through design and operation for intrinsic safety, and incorporation of add-on safety systems are explained through examples for both terrestrial and space robots. A space robot hazard identification checklist, a qualitative tool for robot systems designers, is developed using the structure imparted by the matrix safety frame. The development of an expert system from the contents of the checklist is discussed.
A knowledge based approach to assigning tasks to multi-agents working cooperatively in jobs that require a telerobot in the loop was developed. The generality of the approach allows for such a concept to be applied in a nonteleoperational domain. The planning architecture known as the task oriented planner (TOP) uses the principle of flow mechanism and the concept of planning by deliberation to preserve and use knowledge about a particular task. The TOP is an open ended architecture developed with a NEXPERT expert system shell and its knowledge organization allows for indirect consultation at various levels of task abstraction. Considering that a telerobot operates in a hostile and nonstructured environment, task scheduling should respond to environmental changes. A general heuristic was developed for scheduling jobs with the TOP system. The technique is not to optimize a given scheduling criterion as in classical job and/or flow shop problems. For a teleoperation job schedule, criteria are situation dependent. A criterion selection is fuzzily embedded in the task-skill matrix computation. However, goal achievement with minimum expected risk to the human operator is emphasized.
In assessing the risk an asteroid may pose to the Earth, the asteroids state is often predicted for many years, often decades. Only by accounting for the asteroids initial state uncertainty can a measure of the risk be calculated. With the asteroids state uncertainty growing as a function of the initial velocity uncertainty, orbit velocity at the last state update, and the time from the last update to the epoch of interest, the asteroids position uncertainties can grow to many times the size of the Earth when propagated to the encounter risk corridor. This paper examines the merits of propagating the asteroids state covariance as an analytical matrix. The results of this study help to bound the efficacy of applying different metrics for assessing the risk an asteroid poses to the Earth. Additionally, this work identifies a criterion for when different covariance propagation methods are needed to continue predictions after an Earth-encounter period.
In assessing the risk an asteroid may pose to the Earth, the asteroids state is often predicted for many years, often decades. Only by accounting for the asteroids initial state uncertainty can a measure of the risk be calculated. With the asteroids state uncertainty growing as a function of the initial velocity uncertainty, orbit velocity at the last state update, and the time from the last update to the epoch of interest, the asteroids position uncertainties can grow to many times the size of the Earth when propagated to the encounter risk corridor. This paper examines the merits of propagating the asteroids state covariance as an analytical matrix. The results of this study help to bound the efficacy of applying different metrics for assessing the risk an asteroid poses to the Earth. Additionally, this work identifies a criterion for when different covariance propagation methods are needed to continue predictions after an Earth-encounter period.
This viewgraph document reviews the issue of using Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) in Space Application, and the some of the strategies for qualifying the FPGA. Qualification and risk management of such complex systems requires new approaches. The paper presents a matrix approach to qualification has been presented that: - Complements historical specifications - Highlights the importance of device physics as a cornerstone to qualification. - Provides levels of risk management that expressly document trade offs. - Stresses the role of the FPGA vendor as team member in the development of modern spacecraft.