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Toward an Integrated Product of Higher Accuracy and Longer Time Span: Improvement of the Upcoming NASA GEWEX SRB Data Release 4 over Release 3 Based on Validation Against Surface-Based Measurements

The NASA Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) is moving toward its next generation, the Release 4 Integrated Product (Rel. 4-IP), and its shortwave algorithm preliminary results as of this writing span 34 years continuously from July 1983 to June 2017 on a quasi-equal-area grid system with 44,016 gridboxes ranging from 1 longitude times 1 latitude around the Equator to 120 longitude times 1 latitude. The data are in the form of 3-hourly, 3-hourly-monthly, daily and monthly means. The Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) is a project of the Data and Assessments Panel from the GEWEX under the umbrella of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Currently in the archive there are data from 67 sites located in all seven continents spanning from 1992 to the very present. The original BSRN records are at 1-, 2-, 3- or 5-minute intervals, and sophisticated quality-control procedures have been developed to eliminate erroneous records before hourly, daily and monthly means are computed. The Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) arrays of buoys in the tropical oceans, TAO/TRITON (Pacific Ocean), RAMA (Indian Ocean) and PITARA (Atlantic Ocean), measure shortwave downward fluxes using pyranometers. These buoys transmit measured data to shore in real-time via the Argos satellite system. And these buoys are major components of the CLIVAR climate analysis project and the GOOS, GCOS, and GEOSS observing systems. So far there are data from 64 buoys and the earliest data start from 2000. We have extensively validated the Rel. 4-IP preliminary results against the BSRN and PMEL 3-hourly, daily and monthly means. In this paper, we will show that the new results not only temporally span 10 years longer than its predecessor, Release 3, but agree significantly better with the BSRN data over the land and PMEL data over the ocean.

Taiping Zhang↗

Cloud And Precipitation Experiment at Kennaook

The remote Southern Ocean is an area of great interest to atmospheric scientists because of its influence on global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. With less influence from aerosols produced by human activities than most areas on Earth, the region provides a view into preindustrial conditions. Climate projections for the entire Earth are sensitive to the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in the Southern Ocean atmosphere. This is particularly true of the ubiquitous low-level clouds that control the amount of sunlight absorbed at the ocean surface. Satellite data suggest that cloud properties co-vary with the seasonal cycle of aerosols in the region. Seasonal variations in Southern Ocean aerosol properties are strong and well documented, but detailed vertically resolved measurements of clouds and precipitation in the marine boundary layer are lacking. To help fill this gap, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility will deploy a set of instruments for the Cloud And Precipitation Experiment at Kennaook (CAPE-K) from April 2024 to September 2025 in northwestern Tasmania.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New Satellite Project Aerosol-UA: Remote Sensing of Aerosols in the Terrestrial Atmosphere

We discuss the development of the Ukrainian space project Aerosol-UA which has the following three main objectives: (1) to monitor the spatial distribution of key characteristics of terrestrial tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols; (2) to provide a comprehensive observational database enabling accurate quantitative estimates of the aerosol contribution to the energy budget of the climate system; and (3) quantify the contribution of anthropogenic aerosols to climate and ecological processes. The remote sensing concept of the project is based on precise orbital measurements of the intensity and polarization of sunlight scattered by the atmosphere and the surface with a scanning polarimeter accompanied by a wide-angle multispectral imager-polarimeter. Preparations have already been made for the development of the instrument suite for the Aerosol-UA project, in particular, of the multi-channel scanning polarimeter (ScanPol) designed for remote sensing studies of the global distribution of aerosol and cloud properties (such as particle size, morphology, and composition) in the terrestrial atmosphere by polarimetric and spectrophotometric measurements of the scattered sunlight in a wide range of wavelengths and viewing directions from which a scene location is observed. ScanPol is accompanied by multispectral wide-angle imager-polarimeter (MSIP) that serves to collect information on cloud conditions and Earths surface image. Various components of the polarimeter ScanPol have been prototyped, including the opto-mechanical and electronic assemblies and the scanning mirror controller. Preliminary synthetic data simulations for the retrieval of aerosol parameters over land surfaces have been performed using the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties (GRASP) algorithm. Methods for the validation of satellite data using ground-based observations of aerosol properties are also discussed. We assume that designing, building, and launching into orbit a multi-functional high-precision scanning polarimeter and an imager-polarimeter should make a significant contribution to the study of natural and anthropogenic aerosols and their climatic and ecological effects.

remote sensing↗

On the Importance of Sea Surface Temperature for Aerosol–Induced Brightening of Marine Clouds and Implications for Cloud Feedback in a Future Warmer Climate

Marine low clouds are one of the greatest sources of uncertainty for climate projection. We present an observed climatology of cloud albedo susceptibility to cloud droplet number concentration perturbations (S 0 ) with changing sea surface temperature (SST) and estimated inversion strength for single-layer warm clouds over the North Atlantic Ocean, using eight years of satellite and reanalysis data. The key findings are that SST has a dominant control on S 0 in the presence of co-varying synoptic conditions and aerosol perturbations. Cloud brightening in regions with positive S 0 weakens with increasing local SST. Higher SST significantly hastens cloud-top evaporation with increasing aerosol loading, by accelerating entrainment and facilitating entrainment drying. In a global-warming-like scenario where aerosol loading is reduced, more cloud brightening is expected, mainly as a result of reduced entrainment drying. Furthermore, our results imply a less positive low-cloud liquid water path feedback in a warmer climate with decreasing aerosol loading.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of a Model-Based Groundwater Drought Indicator in the Conterminous U.S.

Monitoring groundwater drought using land surface models is a valuable alternative given the current lack of systematic in situ measurements at continental and global scales and the low resolution of current remote sensing based groundwater data. However, uncertainties inherent to land surface models may impede drought detection, and thus should be assessed using independent data sources. In this study, we evaluated a groundwater drought index (GWI) derived from monthly groundwater storage output from the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) using a GWI similarly derived from in situ groundwater observations. Groundwater observations were obtained from unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in eight regions of the central and northeastern U.S. Regional average GWI derived from CLSM exhibited strong correlation with that from observation wells, with correlation coefficients between 0.43 and 0.92. GWI from both in situ data and CLSM was generally better correlated with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at 12 and 24 month timescales than at shorter timescales, but it varied depending on climate conditions. The correlation between CLSM derived GWI and SPI generally decreases with increasing depth to the water table, which in turn depends on both bedrock depth (a CLSM parameter) and mean annual precipitation. The persistence of CLSM derived GWI is spatially varied and again shows a strong influence of depth to groundwater. CLSM derived GWI generally persists longer than GWI derived from in situ data, due at least in part to the inability of coarse model inputs to capture high frequency meteorological variability at local scales. The study also showed that groundwater can have a significant impact on soil moisture persistence where the water table is shallow. Soil moisture persistence was estimated to be longer in the eastern U.S. than in the west, in contrast to previous findings that were based on models that did not represent groundwater. Assimilation of terrestrial water storage data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission improved the correlation between CLSM based regional average GWI and that based on in situ data in six of the eight regions. Practical issues regarding the application of GRACE assimilated groundwater storage for drought detection are discussed. An important conclusion of this study is that model parameters that control the depth to the water table, including bedrock depth, strongly influence the evolution and persistence of simulated groundwater and require careful configuration for drought monitoring.

Evaluation↗

Evaluation of a Model-Based Groundwater Drought Indicator in the Conterminous U.S.

Monitoring groundwater drought using land surface models is a valuable alternative given the current lack of systematic in situ measurements at continental and global scales and the low resolution of current remote sensing based groundwater data. However, uncertainties inherent to land surface models may impede drought detection, and thus should be assessed using independent data sources. In this study, we evaluated a groundwater drought index (GWI) derived from monthly groundwater storage output from the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) using a GWI similarly derived from in situ groundwater observations. Groundwater observations were obtained from unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in eight regions of the central and northeastern U.S. Regional average GWI derived from CLSM exhibited strong correlation with that from observation wells, with correlation coefficients between 0.43 and 0.92. GWI from both in situ data and CLSM was generally better correlated with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at 12 and 24 month timescales than at shorter timescales, but it varied depending on climate conditions. The correlation between CLSM derived GWI and SPI generally decreases with increasing depth to the water table, which in turn depends on both bedrock depth (a CLSM parameter) and mean annual precipitation. The persistence of CLSM derived GWI is spatially varied and again shows a strong influence of depth to groundwater. CLSM derived GWI generally persists longer than GWI derived from in situ data, due at least in part to the inability of coarse model inputs to capture high frequency meteorological variability at local scales. The study also showed that groundwater can have a significant impact on soil moisture persistence where the water table is shallow. Soil moisture persistence was estimated to be longer in the eastern U.S. than in the west, in contrast to previous findings that were based on models that did not represent groundwater. Assimilation of terrestrial water storage data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission improved the correlation between CLSM based regional average GWI and that based on in situ data in six of the eight regions. Practical issues regarding the application of GRACE assimilated groundwater storage for drought detection are discussed. An important conclusion of this study is that model parameters that control the depth to the water table, including bedrock depth, strongly influence the evolution and persistence of simulated groundwater and require careful configuration for drought monitoring.

hydrology↗

ICESat Lidar and Global Digital Elevation Models: Application to DESDynI

Geodetic control is extremely important in the production and quality control of topographic data sets, enabling elevation results to be referenced to an absolute vertical datum. Global topographic data with improved geodetic accuracy achieved using global Ground Control Point (GCP) databases enable more accurate characterization of land topography and its change related to solid Earth processes, natural hazards and climate change. The multiple-beam lidar instrument that will be part of the NASA Deformation, Ecosystem Structure and Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI) mission will provide a comprehensive, global data set that can be used for geodetic control purposes. Here we illustrate that potential using data acquired by NASA's Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICEsat) that has acquired single-beam, globally distributed laser altimeter profiles (+/-86deg) since February of 2003 [1, 2]. The profiles provide a consistently referenced elevation data set with unprecedented accuracy and quantified measurement errors that can be used to generate GCPs with sub-decimeter vertical accuracy and better than 10 m horizontal accuracy. Like the planned capability for DESDynI, ICESat records a waveform that is the elevation distribution of energy reflected within the laser footprint from vegetation, where present, and the ground where illuminated through gaps in any vegetation cover [3]. The waveform enables assessment of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) with respect to the highest, centroid, and lowest elevations observed by ICESat and in some cases with respect to the ground identified beneath vegetation cover. Using the ICESat altimetry data we are developing a comprehensive database of consistent, global, geodetic ground control that will enhance the quality of a variety of regional to global DEMs. Here we illustrate the accuracy assessment of the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) DEM produced for Australia, documenting spatially varying elevation biases of several meters in magnitude.

Carabajal, Claudia C.↗

The Chesapeake Lighthouse and Aircraft Measurements for Satellites (CLAMS) Experiment

NASA has developed an Earth Observing System (EOS) consisting of a series of satellites designed to study global change from space. The EOS flagship is the EOS TERRA satellite, launched in December 1999, equipped with five unique sensors to monitor and study the Earth s heat budget and many of the key controlling variables governing the Earth's climate system. CLAMS, the Chesapeake Lighthouse and Aircraft Measurements for Satellites field campaign was conducted from NASA Wallops Flight Facility and successfully executed over the middle Atlantic eastern seaboard from July 10 August 2, 2001. CLAMS is primarily a shortwave closure experiment designed to validate and improve EOS TERRA satellite data products being derived from three sensors: CERES (Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System), MISR (Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer) and MODIS (MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). CLAMS is jointly sponsored by the CERES, MISR and MODIS instrument teams and the NASA GEWEX Global Aerosol Climatology Project (GACP). CLAMS primary objectives are to validate satellite-based retrievals of aerosol properties and vertical profiles of radiative flux, temperature and water vapor. Central to CLAMS measurement strategy is the Chesapeake Lighthouse, a stable sea platform located in the Atlantic Ocean, 13 miles east of Virginia Beach near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay and the site of an ongoing CERES Ocean Validation Experiment (COVE). Six research aircraft were deployed to make detailed measurements of the atmosphere and ocean surface in the vicinity of COVE, over the surrounding ocean, over nearby NOAA buoys and over a few land sites. The measurements are used to validate and provide ground truth for simultaneous products being derived from TERRA data, a key step toward an improved understanding and ability to predict changes in the Earth's climate. One of the two CERES instruments on-board TERRA was programmed for Rotating Azimuth Plane Scans (RAPS) during CLAMS, increasing the CERES coverage over COVE by a factor of 10. Nine coordinated aircraft missions and numerous additional sorties were flown under a variety of atmospheric conditions and aerosol loadings. On one golden day, July 17, all six aircraft flew coordinated patterns, vertically stacked between 100 ft and 65,000 ft over the COVE site as the TERRA satellite orbited overhead. A summary of CLAMS measurement campaign and a description of the platforms and measurements is given.

Smith, William L., Jr.↗

Relating multitemporal meteorological satellite data to climatological data for Africa

The questions of surface-atmosphere interaction and effects of land surface changes have been investigated by studying the energy balance over Africa. The energy and mass balance model being developed is an adaptation of the Lettau climatonomy model. The climatonic approach is a systems approach which encompasses: (1) a process, (2) an input to the process (forcing function), (3) an output from the process (response function), (4) feedback, and (5) control or management of the system. Steady-state climate is described and parametrized using a series of one-dimensional differential continuity and balance equations for energy and mass.

Nicholson, Sharon E.↗

Evaluating and Quantifying the Climate-Driven Interannual Variability in Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g) at Global Scales

Satellite observations of surface reflected solar radiation contain informationabout variability in the absorption of solar radiation by vegetation. Understanding thecauses of variability is important for models that use these data to drive land surface fluxesor for benchmarking prognostic vegetation models. Here we evaluated the interannualvariability in the new 30.5-year long global satellite-derived surface reflectance index data,Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies normalized difference vegetation index(GIMMS NDVI3g). Pearsons correlation and multiple linear stepwise regression analyseswere applied to quantify the NDVI interannual variability driven by climate anomalies, andto evaluate the effects of potential interference (snow, aerosols and clouds) on the NDVIsignal. We found ecologically plausible strong controls on NDVI variability by antecedent precipitation and current monthly temperature with distinct spatial patterns. Precipitation correlations were strongest for temperate to tropical water limited herbaceous systemswhere in some regions and seasons 40 of the NDVI variance could be explained byprecipitation anomalies. Temperature correlations were strongest in northern mid- to-high-latitudes in the spring and early summer where up to 70 of the NDVI variance was explained by temperature anomalies. We find that, in western and central North America,winter-spring precipitation determines early summer growth while more recent precipitation controls NDVI variability in late summer. In contrast, current or prior wetseason precipitation anomalies were correlated with all months of NDVI in sub-tropical herbaceous vegetation. Snow, aerosols and clouds as well as unexplained phenomena still account for part of the NDVI variance despite corrections. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that GIMMS NDVI3g represents real responses of vegetation to climate variability that are useful for global models.

interference↗

Canadian and Alaskan Wildfire Smoke Particle Properties, Their Evolution and Controlling Factors, From Satellite Observations

The optical and chemical properties of biomass burning (BB) smoke particles greatly affect the impact that wildfires have on climate and air quality. Previous work has demonstrated some links between smoke properties and factors such as fuel type and meteorology. However, the factors controlling BB particle speciation at emission are not adequately understood nor are the factors driving particle aging during atmospheric transport. As such, modeling wildfire smoke impacts on climate and air quality remains challenging. The potential to provide robust, statistical characterizations of BB particles based on ecosystem type and ambient environmental conditions with remote sensing data is investigated here. Space-based Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) observations, combined with the MISR Research Aerosol (RA) algorithm and the MISR Interactive Explorer (MINX) tool, are used to retrieve smoke plume aerosol optical depth (AOD) and to provide constraints on plume vertical extent; smoke age; and particle size, shape, light-absorption properties, and absorption spectral dependence. These tools are applied to numerous wildfire plumes in Canada and Alaska, across a range of conditions, to create a regional inventory of BB particle-type temporal and spatial distribution. We then statistically compare these results with satellite measurements of fire radiative power (FRP) and land cover characteristics, as well as short-term climate, meteorological, and drought information from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) reanalysis and the North American Drought Monitor. We find statistically significant differences in the retrieved smoke properties based on land cover type, with fires in forests producing the thickest plumes containing the largest, brightest particles and fires in savannas and grasslands exhibiting the opposite. Additionally, the inferred dominant aging mechanisms and the timescales over which they occur vary systematically between land types. This work demonstrates the potential of remote sensing to constrain BB particle properties and the mechanisms governing their evolution over entire ecosystems. It also begins to realize this potential, as a means of improving regional and global climate and air quality modeling in a rapidly changing world.

Katherine T. Junghenn Noyes↗

Geophysical Retrievals in an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Framework for Illuminating Processes Controlling Water Cycle

Focal Area(s): This white paper responds to Focal Area #3: Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: This white paper addresses the water-cycle and data-model integration grand challenge. It leverages data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility, and Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment (NGEE), and Science Focus Area (SFA). The white paper focuses on controlling cloud, precipitation, and radiative properties as observed and simulated by the Earth System Models (ESM). The described framework can be readily applied to any other ensemble of instruments, including satellites and other ground-based networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Opportunities for Coordinated Observations of CO2 with the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) and Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT)

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) and the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) are the first two satellites designed to make global measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) with the precision and sampling needed identify and monitor surface sources and sinks of this important greenhouse gas. Because the operational phases of the OCO and GOSAT missions overlap in time, there are numerous opportunities for comparing and combining the data from these two satellites to improve our understanding of the natural processes and human activities that control the atmospheric CO2 and it variability over time. Opportunities for cross-calibration, cross-validation, and coordinated observations that are currently under consideration are summarized here.

climate↗

Incorporating Parallel Computing into the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS)

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining actual observations with model forecasts to produce a more accurate description of the earth system than the observations or forecast alone can provide. The output of data assimilation, sometimes called the analysis, are regular, gridded datasets of observed and unobserved variables. Analysis plays a key role in numerical weather prediction and is becoming increasingly important for climate research. These applications, and the need for timely validation of scientific enhancements to the data assimilation system pose computational demands that are best met by distributed parallel software. The mission of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is to provide datasets for climate research and to support NASA satellite and aircraft missions. The system used to create these datasets is the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The core components of the the GEOS DAS are: the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM), the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS), the Observer, the on-line Quality Control (QC) system, the Coupler (which feeds analysis increments back to the GCM), and an I/O package for processing the large amounts of data the system produces (which will be described in another presentation in this session). The discussion will center on the following issues: the computational complexity for the whole GEOS DAS, assessment of the performance of the individual elements of GEOS DAS, and parallelization strategy for some of the components of the system.

Larson, Jay W.↗

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

This study describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness function for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes of the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980s in order to refine our empirical understanding of intraannual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global l(sup o) gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: growing degree days, annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same climate index values from the previous year explained no significant additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes was closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from l(sup o) grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes were not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude ecosystems and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Potter, C. S.↗

Operational Assimilation of GOES Data into a Mesoscale Model

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite- observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) within the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) since 1 November 1998. We performed the assimilation on a model grid centered over the Southeastern US. In addition, a control run without assimilation was performed to provide insight into the performance of the assimilation technique. Bulk verification statistics (BIAS and RMSE) of surface air temperature and relative humidity of more than 250 case days has been performed to date. Results show that assimilation of the satellite data results reduces both the bias and RMSE for simulations of surface air temperature and relative humidity. We are working with forecasters at the National Weather Service Forecast Office located in Birmingham, AL to evaluate the impact of the assimilation on precipitation forecasts. In addition, work is currently underway to determine the ability of both the assimilation technique and Early Eta to sense the significant changes that occur in both leaf expansion and soil moisture conditions during the Spring-Summer of 1999. This will be accomplished via examination of the simulated surface energy budgets from both modeling systems.

Lapenta, William↗

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

This paper describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness relationship for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes If the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980's in order to refine our understanding of intra-annual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global 1o gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: degree days (growing/chilling), annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the geographic variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same annual climate index values from the previous year explains no substantial additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes is closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from lo grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI for several different years at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes are not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude zones, mixed and disturbed vegetation types, and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Potter, C. S.↗

Cloud cover determination in polar regions from satellite imagery

The principal objectives of this project are: (1) to develop suitable validation data sets to evaluate the effectiveness of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) operational algorithm for cloud retrieval in polar regions and to validate model simulations of polar cloud cover; (2) to identify limitations of current procedures for varying atmospheric surface conditions, and to explore potential means to remedy them using textural classifiers; and (3) to compare synoptic cloud data from a control run experiment of the GISS climate model II with typical observed synoptic cloud patterns.

Barry, R. G.↗