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Integrating static PRA information with risk informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) simulation methods

The overall objective of the project was to develop a computationally feasible and user-friendly mechanized process to integrate traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and dynamic PRA (DPRA) results. Starting with the systematic identification of items in an existing PRA that need dynamic augmentation, the project used a generic 4-loop pressurized reactor (PWR) and 3-loop PWR as example plants. Station blackout (SBO) and large break loss of coolant accident SBLOCA) were selected as the example initiating events. Using the traditional event-tree (ET)/fault-tree (FT) methodology augmented by dynamic evet tree approach, the potential consequences of the initiating events were simulated with RELAP-3D and MELCOR/RASCAL codes to cover Level 1 through Level 3 of PRA. RAVEN and ADAPT software were used to generate Level 1 simulations with RELAP-3D and Level 2/3 simulations with MELCOR (Level 2)/RASCAL (Level 3), respectively. Example branching conditions (BCs) for SBO included AC power recovery time, valve repair failure time, reactor coolant pump leak time/break size and emergency power supply duration to a total of 9. Example BCs for LOCA included off-site power recovery time, diesel generator power recovery time, auxiliary feed water system operation time, safety relief valve failure to open upon demand, reactor coolant pump seal break time and size to a total of 21. Each RELAP-3D simulation (9,587 scenarios) was labelled OK or Core Damage based on the maximum allowed peak clad temperature (2,100oF). Each MELCOR simulation (4610 scenarios) was labeled as Bin over 10rem or Bin 0-10rem based on the dose at the site boundary. The scenarios were clustered based on the criteria above using the mean shift methodology. Classical PRA (CPRA) and DPRA results were compared to identify the ET sequences that need DPRA augmentation. Several approaches were proposed for the incorporation of these sequences into CPRA using clustering with the mean shift methodology, restructuring the CPRA ETs by adding new BCs/sequences, and using the concept of a limit surface. Procedures for decision making regarding the possible consequences of an initiating event (e.g. core damage or not, site evacuation or not) were developed using a convolutional neural network (CNN), a recurrent neural network (RNN) and a transformer neural network (TNN). The project has led to two PhD degrees, three archival journal papers and five refereed conference proceedings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Constraints on Helium Enhancement in the Globular Cluster M3 (NGC 5272): The Horizontal Branch Test

It has recently been suggested that the presence of multiple populations showing various amounts of helium enhancement is a common feature among globular star clusters. In this scenario, such a helium enhancement would be particularly apparent in the enhanced luminosity of thc blue horizontal branch (HB) stars compared to the red HB stars. In this Letter, wc test this scenario in the case of the Galactic globular cluster M3 (NGC 5272), using high-precision Stromgren photometry and spectroscopic gravities for blue HB stars. We find that any helium enhancement among the cluster's blue HB stars must be significantly less than I%, thus ruling out the much higher helium enhancements that have been proposed in the literature.

Catelan, M.↗

Clash of Titans: the impact of cluster mergers in the galaxy cluster red sequence

ABSTRACT Merging of galaxy clusters are some of the most energetic events in the Universe, and they provide a unique environment to study galaxy evolution. We use a sample of 84 merging and relaxed SPT galaxy clusters candidates, observed with the Dark Energy Camera in the 0.11 < z < 0.88 redshift range, to build colour–magnitude diagrams to characterize the impact of cluster mergers on the galaxy population. We divided the sample between relaxed and disturbed, and in two redshifts bin at z = 0.55. When comparing the high-z to low-z clusters we find the high-z sample is richer in blue galaxies, independently of the cluster dynamical state. In the high-z bin, we find that disturbed clusters exhibit a larger scatter in the red sequence, with wider distribution and an excess of bluer galaxies compared to relaxed clusters, while in the low-z bin we find a complete agreement between the relaxed and disturbed clusters. Our results support the scenario in which massive cluster halos at z < 0.55 galaxies are quenched as satellites of another structure, i.e. outside the cluster, while at z ≥ 0.55 the quenching is dominated by in situ processes.

Aldás, Franklin (ORCID:0000000290215114)↗

Non-Thermal Hard X-Ray Emission in Galaxy Clusters Observed with the BeppoSAX PDS

We studied the X-ray emission in a sample of clusters using the BeppoSAX PDS instrument in the 20 -- 80 keV energy band. We estimated the non-thermal cluster emission (HXR) by modeling the thermal contribution from the cluster gas and the non-thermal contamination from the AGN in the field, and propagating the corresponding uncertainties. We also evaluated and propagated the systematic uncertainties due to the background fluctuations. The resulting non-thermal component is detected at a sigma level in approx. 50 % of the non-significantly AGN-contaminated clusters, i.e. in clusters A2142, A2256, A3376, Coma, Ophiuchus and Virgo. Furthermore, Virgo is detected at a 4 sigma level. All the clusters detected at a 2 sigma level exhibit some degree of merger signatures, i.e. deviations from the azimuthally symmetric brightness and temperature distributions, while the relaxed clusters are detected at a lower confidence. The data are consistent with a scenario whereby relaxed clusters have no non-thermal hard X-ray component, whereas merger clusters do, with a 20 -- 80 keV luminosity of approx. 10(exp 42-44)((h(sub 50))(exp -2))(erg/s). Consistent with merger boosting of cluster temperatures, the non-thermal luminosity increases by 2-3 orders of magnitude between the average cluster temperatures 2 and 10 keV, as L(sub NTE) is proportional to T(sup j) with j = 2.4+/-0.3. These results corroborate the assumption which is the essential element in most non-thermal hard X-ray emission models. The co-added spectrum of all non-significantly AGN-contaminated clusters indicates a power-law spectrum for the non-thermal component with a photon index of 1.5+/-0.25 at 1 sigma confidence level. Unless there is a high energy cut-off in the electron velocity distribution, the total spectrum implies that Inverse Compton scatter of Cosmic Microwave Background photons from electron population dominates over the non-thermal bremsstrahlung in producing hard X-rays in clusters on the merger shock acceleration of electrons in clusters.

Nevalainen, Jukka H.↗

Non-Thermal Hard X-Ray Emission in Galaxy Clusters Observed with the BeppoSAX PDS

We study the X-ray emission in a Sample of galaxy clusters using the BeppoSAX PDS instrument in the 20 - 80 keV energy band. We estimate the non-thermal hard X-ray cluster emission (HXR) by modeling the thermal contribution from the cluster gas and the non-thermal contamination from the unobscured AGN in the clusters. We also evaluate the systematic uncertainties due to the background fluctuations. Assuming negligible contamination from the obscured AGN, the resulting non-thermal component is detected at a 2 sigma level in approx. 50% of the non-significantly AGN-contaminated clusters: A2142, A2199, A2256, A3376, Coma, Ophiuchus and Virgo. The data are consistent with a scenario whereby relaxed clusters have no hard X-ray component of non-thermal origin, whereas merger clusters do. The co-added spectrum of the above clusters indicates a power-law spectrum for the HXR with a photon index of 2.8+0.3-0.4 in the 12 - 115 keV band, and we find indication that it has extended distribution. These indications argue against significant contamination from obscured AGN, which have harder spectra and centrally concentrated distribution. These results are supportive of the assumption of the merger shock acceleration of electrons in clusters, which has been proposed as a possible origin of the non-thermal hard X-ray emission models. Assuming that the Cosmic Microwave Background photons experience Inverse Compton scattering from the merger-accelerated relativistic electrons, and thus produce the observed HXR, the measured hard X-ray slope corresponds to a differential momentum spectra of the relativistic electrons with a slope of mu = 3.8 - 5.0. In presence of cluster magnetic fields this relativistic electron population produces synchrotron emission with a spectral index of 1.4 - 2.1, consistent with radio halo observations of merger clusters. Thus both hard X-ray and radio observations of merger clusters are consistent with the Inverse Compton model. The observed slope of HXR is also consistent with that predicted by the non-thermal bremsstrahlung, which chus cannot be ruled by the fit to the current data, even though this model requires an extreme, untenable cluster energetics. Assuming centrally concentrated distribution of HXR, the data requires a harder slope for the HXR spectrum, which is consistent with secondary electron models, but this model yields a worse fit to the PDS data and thus seems to be disfavored over the primary electron Inverse Compton model.

Nevalainen, J.↗

Non-Thermal Hard X-Ray Emission in Galaxy Clusters Observed with the BeppoSAX PDS

We study the X-ray emission in a sample of galaxy clusters using the BeppoSAX PDS instrument in the 20-80 keV energy band. We estimate the nonthermal hard X-ray (HXR) cluster emission by modeling the thermal contribution from the cluster gas and the nonthermal contamination from the unobscured active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in the clusters. We also evaluate the systematic uncertainties due to the background fluctuations. Assuming negligible contamination from the obscured AGNs, the resulting nonthermal component is detected at a 2 sigma level in approx. 50% of the nonsignificantly AGN-contaminated clusters: A2142, A2199, A2256, A3376, Coma, Ophiuchus, and Virgo. The data are consistent with a scenario whereby relaxed clusters have no hard X-ray component of nonthermal origin, whereas merger clusters do, with a 20-80 keV luminosity of approx. 10(exp 43)-10(exp 44) h(sup -2 sub 50) ergs/s. The co-added spectrum of the above clusters indicates a power-law spectrum for the HXR emission with a photon index of 2.8(sup +0.3 sub -0.4) in the 12-115 keV band, and we find indication that it has extended distribution. These indications argue against significant contamination from obscured AGNs, which have harder spectra and a centrally concentrated distribution. These results are supportive of the assumption of the merger shock acceleration of electrons in clusters, which has been proposed as a possible origin of the nonthermal hard X-ray emission models. Assuming that the cosmic microwave background photons experience inverse Compton scattering from the merger-accelerated relativistic electrons and thus produce the observed HXR, the measured hard X-ray slope corresponds to a differential momentum spectra of the relativistic electrons with a slope of mu = 3.8-5.0. In presence of cluster magnetic fields this relativistic electron population produces synchrotron emission with a spectral index of 1.4-2.1, consistent with radio halo observations of merger clusters. Thus both hard X-ray and radio observations of merger clusters are consistent with the inverse Compton model.

Nevalainen, J.↗

Wake Effects in Lower Carbon Future Scenarios

In August 2022, the U.S. Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which intended to accelerate U.S. decarbonization, clean energy manufacturing, and deployment of new power and end-use technologies. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has examined possible scenarios for growth by 2050 resulting from the IRA and other emissions reduction drivers and defined several possible scenarios for large-scale wind deployment. These scenarios incorporate large clusters of turbines operating as wind farms grouped around existing or likely transmission lines which will result in wind farm wakes. Using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, we assess these wake effects in a domain in the U. S. Southern Great Plains for a representative year with four scenarios in order to validate the simulations, estimate the internal wake impact, and quantify the cluster wake effect. Herein, we present a validation of the ”no wind farm” scenario and quantify the internal waking effect for the ”ONE” wind farm scenario. Future work will use the “MID” scenario (more than 8000 turbines) and the “HI” scenario (more than 16,000 turbines) to quantify the effect of cluster wakes or inter-farm wakes on power production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Vertex-Aligned Model for Packing 4-Hexagonal Clusters in a Regular Hexagonal Container

This paper deals with a problem the packing polyhex clusters in a regular hexagonal container. It is a common problem in many applications with various cluster shapes used, but symmetric polyhex is the most useful in engineering due to its geometrical properties. Hence, we concentrate on mathematical modeling in such an application, where using the “bee” tetrahex is chosen for the new Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) design upgrade, which is one of four detectors used in Large Hadron Collider (LHC) experiment at European Laboratory for Particle Physics (CERN). We start from the existing hexagonal containers with hexagonal cells packed inside, and uniform clustering applied. We compare the center-aligned (CA) and vertex-aligned (VA) models, analyzing cluster rotations providing the increased packing efficiency. We formally describe the geometrical properties of clustering approaches and show that cluster sharing is inevitable at the container border with uniform clustering. In addition, we propose a new vertex-aligned model decreasing the number of shared clusters in the uniform scenario, but with a smaller number of clusters contained inside the container. Also, we describe a non-uniform tetrahex cluster packing scheme in the proposed container model. With the proposed cluster packing solution, it is accomplished that all clusters are contained inside the container region. Since cluster-sharing is completely avoided at the container border, the maximal packing efficiency is obtained compared to the existing models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Eridanus III and DELVE 1: Carbon-rich Primordial Star Clusters or the Smallest Dwarf Galaxies?

We present spectroscopy of the ultra-faint Milky Way satellites Eridanus III (Eri III) and DELVE 1. We identify eight member stars in each satellite and place non-constraining upper limits on their velocity and metallicity dispersions. The brightest star in each object is very metal-poor, at [Fe/H] = -3.1 for Eri III and [Fe/H] = -2.8 for DELVE 1. Both of these stars exhibit large overabundances of carbon and very low abundances of the neutron-capture elements Ba and Sr, and we classify them as CEMP-no stars. Because their metallicities are well below those of the Milky Way globular cluster population, and because no CEMP-no stars have been identified in globular clusters, these chemical abundances could suggest that Eri III and DELVE 1 are dwarf galaxies. On the other hand, the two systems have half-light radii of 8 pc and 6 pc, respectively, which is more compact than any known ultra-faint dwarfs. We conclude that Eri III and DELVE 1 are either the smallest dwarf galaxies yet discovered, or they are representatives of a new class of star clusters that underwent chemical evolution distinct from that of ordinary globular clusters. In the latter scenario, such objects are likely the most primordial star clusters surviving today. These possibilities can be distinguished by future measurements of carbon and/or iron abundances for larger samples of stars or improved stellar kinematics for the two systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Clustering Interval Load with Weather to Create Scenarios of Behind-the-Meter Solar Penetration

Forecasting load at the feeder level has become increasingly challenging with the penetration of behind-the-meter solar, as this self-generation is only visible to the utility as aggregated net-load. This work proposes a methodology for creation of scenarios of solar penetration at the feeder level for use by forecasters to test the robustness of their algorithm to progressively higher penetrations of solar. The algorithm draws on publicly available observations of weather condition (e.g., rainy/cloudy/fair) for use as proxies to sky clearness. These observations are used to mask and weight the interval deviations of similar native usage profiles from which average interval usage is calculated and subsequently added to interval net generation to reconstruct interval total generation. This approach improves the estimate of annual energy generation by 23%; where the net generation signal currently reflects 52% of total annual gener- ation, now 75% is captured. This methodology for creation of forecast testing scenarios is data driven and extensible to service territories which lack information on irradiance measurements and geocoordinates.

solar, load↗

Is There an Exoplanet in the Solar System?

We investigate the prospects for the capture of the proposed Planet 9 from other stars in the Sun’s birth cluster. Any capture scenario must satisfy three conditions: the encounter must be more distant than ∼150 au to avoid perturbing the Kuiper belt; the other star must have a wide-orbit planet (a ≳ 100 au); the planet must be captured on to an appropriate orbit to sculpt the orbital distribution of wide-orbit Solar system bodies. Here we use N-body simulations to show that these criteria may be simultaneously satisfied. In a few per cent of slow close encounters in a cluster, bodies are captured on to heliocentric, Planet 9-like orbits. During the ∼100 Myr cluster phase, many stars are likely to host planets on highly eccentric orbits with apastron distances beyond 100 au if Neptune-sized planets are common and susceptible to planet–planet scattering. While the existence of Planet 9 remains unproven, we consider capture from one of the Sun’s young brethren a plausible route to explain such an object’s orbit. Capture appears to predict a large population of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) whose orbits are aligned with the captured planet, and we propose that different formation mechanisms will be distinguishable based on their imprint on the distribution of TNOs.

Kuiper belt↗

Deep XMM–Newton observations of the most distant SPT-SZ galaxy cluster

ABSTRACT We present results from a 577 ks XMM–Newton observation of SPT-CL J0459–4947, the most distant cluster detected in the South Pole Telescope 2500 square degree (SPT-SZ) survey, and currently the most distant cluster discovered through its Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect. The data confirm the cluster’s high redshift, z = 1.71 ± 0.02, in agreement with earlier, less precise optical/IR photometric estimates. From the gas density profile, we estimate a characteristic mass of $M_{500}=(1.8\pm 0.2)\times 10^{14}\, {\rm M}_{\odot }$; cluster emission is detected above the background to a radius of $\sim \!2.2\, r_{500}$, or approximately the virial radius. The intracluster gas is characterized by an emission-weighted average temperature of 7.2 ± 0.3 keV and metallicity with respect to Solar of $Z/\, Z_{\odot }=0.37\pm 0.08$. For the first time at such high redshift, this deep data set provides a measurement of metallicity outside the cluster centre; at radii $r\gt 0.3\, r_{500}$, we find $Z/\, Z_{\odot }=0.33\pm 0.17$ in good agreement with precise measurements at similar radii in the most nearby clusters, supporting an early enrichment scenario in which the bulk of the cluster gas is enriched to a universal metallicity prior to cluster formation, with little to no evolution thereafter. The leverage provided by the high redshift of this cluster tightens by a factor of 2 constraints on evolving metallicity models, when combined with previous measurements at lower redshifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CLUE: A Fast Parallel Clustering Algorithm for High Granularity Calorimeters in High-Energy Physics

One of the challenges of high granularity calorimeters, such as that to be built to cover the endcap region in the CMS Phase-2 Upgrade for HL-LHC, is that the large number of channels causes a surge in the computing load when clustering numerous digitized energy deposits (hits) in the reconstruction stage. In this article, we propose a fast and fully parallelizable density-based clustering algorithm, optimized for high-occupancy scenarios, where the number of clusters is much larger than the average number of hits in a cluster. The algorithm uses a grid spatial index for fast querying of neighbors and its timing scales linearly with the number of hits within the range considered. We also show a comparison of the performance on CPU and GPU implementations, demonstrating the power of algorithmic parallelization in the coming era of heterogeneous computing in high-energy physics.

Rovere, Marco↗

Resilience-Oriented DG Siting and Sizing Considering Stochastic Scenario Reduction

In this paper, a fuel-based distributed generator (DG) allocation strategy is proposed to enhance the distribution system resilience against extreme weather. The long-term planning problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer programming (SMIP). The first stage is to make decisions of DG siting and sizing under the given budget constraint. In the second stage, a post-extreme-event-restoration (PEER) is employed to minimize the operating cost in an uncertain fault scenario. In particular, this study proposes a method to select the most representative scenarios for the SMIP. First, a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is introduced to generate sufficient scenarios considering random fault locations and load profiles. Then, the number of scenarios is reduced by the K-means clustering algorithm. The advantage of scenario reduction is to make a trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the SMIP is solved by the progressive hedging algorithm. Here, the case studies of the IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus test systems demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in reducing the expected energy not served (EENS), which is a critical criterion of resilience.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Luminosity segregation in galaxy clusters as an indication of dynamical evolution

Theoretical models describing the dynamical evolution of self-gravitating systems predict a spatial mass segregation for more evolved systems, with the more massive objects concentrated toward the center of the configuration. From the observational point of view, however, the existence of mass segregation in galaxy clusters seems to be a matter of controversy. A special problem in this connection is the formation of cD galaxies in the centers of galaxy clusters. The most promising scenarios of their formation are galaxy cannibalism (merger scenario) and growing by cooling flows. It seems to be plausible to consider the swallowing of smaller systems by a dominant galaxy as an important process in the evolution of a cD galaxy. The stage of the evolution of the dominant galaxy should be reflected by the surrounding galaxy population, especially by possible mass segregation effects. Assuming that mass segregation is tantamount to luminosity segregation we analyzed luminosity segregation in roughly 40 cD galaxy clusters. Obviously there are three different groups of clusters: (1) clusters with luminosity segregation, (2) clusters without luminosity segregation, and (3) such objects exhibiting a phenomenon which we call antisegregation in luminosity, i.e. a deficiency of bright galaxies in the central regions of clusters. This result is interpreted in the sense of different degrees of mass segregation and as an indication for different evolution stages of these clusters. The clusters are arranged in the three segregation classes 2, 1, and 0 (S2 = strong mass segregation, S1 = moderate mass segregation, S0 = weak or absent mass segregation). We assume that a galaxy cluster starts its dynamical evolution after virialization without any radial mass segregation. Energy exchange during encounters of cluster members as well as merger processes between cluster galaxies lead to an increasing radial mass segregation in the cluster (S1). If a certain degree of segregation (S2) has been established, an essential number of slow-moving and relative massive cluster members in the center will be cannibalized by the initial brightest cluster galaxy. This process should lead to the growing of the predominate galaxy, which is accompanied by a diminution of the mass segregation (transition to S1 and S0, respectively) in the neighborhood of the central very massive galaxy. An increase of the areal density of brighter galaxies towards the outer cluster regions (antisegregation of luminosity), i.e. an extreme low degree of mass segregation was estimated for a substantial percentage of cD clusters. This result favors the cannibalism scenario for the formation of cD galaxies.

Baier, F. W.↗

Fragmentation hierarchy of bright sungrazing comets and the birth and orbital evolution of the Kreutz System. II. the case for cascading fragmentation

We examine the process of cascading fragmentation for the Kreutz sungrazer system to continue our exploration of its birth, orbital evolution, and temporal clumping. We modify and broaden the two-superfragment model from Paper I to include clusters of ~30 bright comets spanning four centuries and 1000 SOHO sungrazers from 1996 to 2006. The spectacular parent sungrazer X/1106 C1 is assumed to have tidally split shortly after perihelion into a train of major protofragments immersed in a cloud of particulate debris, which at larger heliocentric distances were breaking up nontidally over and over again. We describe potential evolutionary paths for the Kreutz system by linking X/1106 C1 in subgroup I-type orbit with the comet of February 423 in one scenario or with the comet of February 467 in another. The latter scenario accounts for sungrazer clusters in as early as the 16th century, suggests that the progenitor object may have been observed as the comet of 214 BCE, is quite consistent with the orbital distribution of the SOHO sungrazers that sample the central filament of the Kreutz system between the clusters of major sungrazers, and predicts future clusters until ~2120. Comet X/1106 C1 and the common parent of C/1882 R1 and C/1965 S1 were two first-generation fragments of the progenitor that split nontidally on the way to its 5th century perihelion, reminiscent of the superfragments in Paper I. We provide computational tools needed for solving the problem of the Kreutz system’s orbital evolution, but no unique scenarios are presented for the individual comets. Another cluster of bright sungrazers is expected to arrive in the coming decades, its earliest member possibly just several years from now.

Chodas, Paul W.↗

Significant DBSCAN+: Statistically Robust Density-based Clustering

Cluster detection is important and widely used in a variety of applications, including public health, public safety, transportation, and so on. Given a collection of data points, we aim to detect density-connected spatial clusters with varying geometric shapes and densities, under the constraint that the clusters are statistically significant. The problem is challenging, because many societal applications and domain science studies have low tolerance for spurious results, and clusters may have arbitrary shapes and varying densities. As a classical topic in data mining and learning, a myriad of techniques have been developed to detect clusters with both varying shapes and densities (e.g., density-based, hierarchical, spectral, or deep clustering methods). However, the vast majority of these techniques do not consider statistical rigor and are susceptible to detecting spurious clusters formed as a result of natural randomness. On the other hand, scan statistic approaches explicitly control the rate of spurious results, but they typically assume a single “hotspot” of over-density and many rely on further assumptions such as a tessellated input space. To unite the strengths of both lines of work, we propose a statistically robust formulation of a multi-scale DBSCAN, namely Significant DBSCAN+, to identify significant clusters that are density connected. As we will show, incorporation of statistical rigor is a powerful mechanism that allows the new Significant DBSCAN+ to outperform state-of-the-art clustering techniques in various scenarios. We also propose computational enhancements to speed-up the proposed approach. Experiment results show that Significant DBSCAN+ can simultaneously improve the success rate of true cluster detection (e.g., 10–20% increases in absolute F1 scores) and substantially reduce the rate of spurious results (e.g., from thousands/hundreds of spurious detections to none or just a few across 100 datasets), and the acceleration methods can improve the efficiency for both clustered and non-clustered data.

Computer Science↗

Synthetic galaxy clusters and observations based on Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Data

ABSTRACT We develop a novel data-driven method for generating synthetic optical observations of galaxy clusters. In cluster weak lensing, the interplay between analysis choices and systematic effects related to source galaxy selection, shape measurement, and photometric redshift estimation can be best characterized in end-to-end tests going from mock observations to recovered cluster masses. To create such test scenarios, we measure and model the photometric properties of galaxy clusters and their sky environments from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) data in two bins of cluster richness $\lambda \in [30; 45)$, $\lambda \in [45; 60)$ and three bins in cluster redshift ($z\in [0.3; 0.35)$, $z\in [0.45; 0.5)$ and $z\in [0.6; 0.65)$. Using deep-field imaging data, we extrapolate galaxy populations beyond the limiting magnitude of DES Y3 and calculate the properties of cluster member galaxies via statistical background subtraction. We construct mock galaxy clusters as random draws from a distribution function, and render mock clusters and line-of-sight catalogues into synthetic images in the same format as actual survey observations. Synthetic galaxy clusters are generated from real observational data, and thus are independent from the assumptions inherent to cosmological simulations. The recipe can be straightforwardly modified to incorporate extra information, and correct for survey incompleteness. New realizations of synthetic clusters can be created at minimal cost, which will allow future analyses to generate the large number of images needed to characterize systematic uncertainties in cluster mass measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗