Machine learning enabled reduced-order scenario generation for stochastic analysis of solar power forecasts
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High temporal resolution generation expansion planning for the clean energy transition
As power systems integrate increasing quantities of wind, solar and energy storage resources, it is important to revisit power system capacity expansion modeling methods and assumptions that have been utilized in thermal- dominated systems. We conduct a series of case study analyses using a simplified representation of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system to demonstrate how least-cost capacity expansion outcomes are impacted by changes in model resolution across two temporal dimensions: 1) the number of considered representative periods, and 2) the system dispatch interval. First, we find that the least-cost generation portfolio can differ significantly for small changes in the number of representative days, but largely converges to the 365-day result once 104 representative days are considered. Furthermore, systems with wind, solar and storage resources were more sensitive to changes in the number of representative days than a thermal-dominated system. Second, we find that considering five-minute dispatch resolution consistently results in least-cost generation portfolios with less solar capacity and more energy storage capacity than corresponding scenarios with hourly dispatch intervals. This suggests that hourly dispatch representation fails to capture the intra-hour volatility of solar generation, and therefore also overlooks opportunities for storage resources to provide system value by balancing this volatility. Collectively these results indicate that capacity expansion modelers should revisit conventional approaches to temporal representation when conducting analyses of deeply decarbonized power systems to ensure that such analyses are robust and actionable. To our knowledge, this is the first study to analyze capacity expansion outcomes with five-minute dispatch resolution in this manner.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Filtered Multi-Tone Spread Spectrum With Overlapping Subbands
A new form of the filter bank multi-carrier spread spectrum (FBMC-SS) waveform is presented. This new waveform modifies the filtered multi-tone spread spectrum (FMT-SS) system, and is intended to whiten the power spectral density (PSD) of the transmit signal. In the conventional FMT-SS, subcarrier bands are non-overlapping, leaving a spectral null between the adjacent subcarrier bands. To make FMT-SS more appealing for a broader set of applications than those studied in the past, we propose adding additional subcarriers centered at these nulls and thoroughly explore the impact of the added subcarriers on the system performance. This modified form of FMT-SS is referred to as overlapped FMT-SS (OFMT-SS). We explore the conditions required for maximally flattening the PSD of the synthesized OFMT-SS signal and for cancelling the interference caused by overlapping subbands. We also explore the choices of spreading gains that result in a low peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR) for a number of different scenarios. Further reduction of the PAPR of the synthesized signal through clipping methods is also explored. Additionally, we propose methods of multi-coding for increasing the data rate of the OFMT-SS waveform, while minimally impacting its PAPR.
42 - ENGINEERING↗
A Multistage Stochastic Transmission Expansion Algorithm for Wide-Area Planning under Uncertainty
The overall objective for this project was to develop and demonstrate a set of methods for solving the transmission investment problem for a large network considering many possible scenarios of future conditions and multiple decision points when investments can be made. Project sub-objectives achieved this goal through a succession of extending the methods to apply to problems with increasing complexity or additional features, including the number of decision points, whether generation and transmission are co-optimized, and whether AC or DC power flow is used. A transmission model was developed for the Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC) region, the high-voltage transmission system that serves the western third of the continental U.S. Using a dataset provided by WECC and by researchers from John Hopkins University, we have validated and demonstrated the model and used it to compare the new method for solving multi-stage stochastic transmission planning to several state-of-the-art techniques. The project has resulted in several key outcomes and achievements: The covariance-based method for choosing a small set of hours to represent short-term variability has superior performance in terms of accuracy to existing methods, including K-means clustering and Importance Sampling; The combined partitioning method for long-term uncertainty with the nested clustering approach for choosing representative hours for each long-term group has superior accuracy for equivalent computational effort compared with existing methods; Using the partitioning/clustering method combined with Sample Average Approximation provides both statistical bounds on the quality of the solution and at the same time, a complete investment plan for all contingencies in the full uncertainty set; no existing methods can provide both at the same time; The method is demonstrated to work well for choosing both transmission and generation investments; A variant on the method allows for both scenario selection and simultaneous correction for the error from the DC power flow approximation to provide a tractable method for AC power flow-based transmission planning under uncertainty; The method applied to the WECC case study demonstrates the additional value to the system operator and the consumer of identifying flexible investment options in the near-term decisions. In particular, the case study exhibits significant option value in postponing some transmission additions that appear useful but in some long-term system states create new congestion problems.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Advection from the North Atlantic as the Forcing of Winter Greenhouse Effect Over Europe
In winter, large interannual fluctuations in the surface temperature are observed over central Europe. Comparing warm February 1990 with cold February 1996, a satellite-retrieved surface (skin) temperature difference of 9.8 K is observed for the region 50-60 degrees N; 5-35 degrees E. Previous studies show that advection from the North Atlantic constitutes the forcing to such fluctuations. The advection is quantified by Index I(sub na), the average of the ocean-surface wind speed over the eastern North Atlantic when the direction is from the southwest (when the wind is from another direction, it counts as a zero speed to the average). Average I(sub na) for February 1990 was 10.6 m/s, but for February 1996 I(sub na) was only 2.4 m/s. A large value of I(sub na) means a strong southwesterly flow which brings warm and moist air into central Europe at low level, producing a steeper tropospheric lapse rate. Strong ascending motions at 700 mb are observed in association with the occurrence of enhanced warm, moist advection from the ocean in February 1990 producing clouds and precipitation. Total precipitable water and cloud-cover fraction have larger values in February 1990 than in 1996. The difference in the greenhouse effect between these two scenarios, this reduction in heat loss to space, can be translated into a virtual radiative heating of 2.6 W/square m above the February 1990 surface/atmosphere system, which contributes to a warming of the surface on the order of 2.6 K. Accepting this estimate as quantitatively meaningful, we evaluate the direct effect, the rise in the surface temperature in Europe as a result of maritime-air inflow, as 7.2 K (9.8 K-2.6 K). Thus, fractional reinforcement by the greenhouse effect is 2.6/7.2, or 36%, a substantial positive feedback.
Otterman, J.↗
Design and Development of a Laboratory-Scale Ice Adhesion Testing Device
When an aircraft traverses through clouds containing supercooled water droplets, in-flight icing can occur that negatively affects vehicle performance by increasing weight and drag leading to loss of lift. Super-cooled water droplets present in clouds that impact vehicle surfaces can lead to inflight icing any time during the year.1 Most events occur at temperatures ranging from 0 to -20degC. Ice generated on the aircraft can vary between clear/glaze, rime, and mixed (Fig. 1) depending on air temperature (-5 to -20degC), liquid water content (0.3-0.6 g/m3), and droplet size (median volumetric diameter of 15-40 μm). Current strategies to remove ice are based on active technologies such as pneumatic boots, heated surfaces, and deicing agents (i.e., ethylene- and propylene-based glycols). The latter have potential environmental concerns. A passive approach to mitigate accreting ice that is actively being investigated are protective coatings. An ice mitigating coating could potentially be used as a stand-alone material, but more likely in combination with an active approach. In the latter scenario, potential reduction in power consumption by the active approach may be realized. To determine the ice adhesion strength of impact ice that is representative of the aircraft environment is not a trivial matter. Test methods utilizing slowly formed ice (i.e., freezer ice) do not accurately simulate this environment. Likewise, some testing methodologies involve sample relocation from the icing environment to the test chamber that can result in thermal shock to the sample, thus affecting the results. The Adverse Environment Rotor Test Stand (AERTS) located at Pennsylvania State University (PSU) has been demonstrated to simulate impact icing conditions within the icing envelope for the determination of ice adhesion shear strength (IASS) without removal/relocation of the sample.2 Due to the confidence in results obtained from AERTS, this instrument is in high demand and requires a significant amount of lead time and capital investment to obtain IASS results. As a solution for quickly and economically screening coatings in a controlled manner under impact icing conditions, a laboratory-scale ice adhesion test and dead blades were then removed from the rotor/blade assembly to obtain the final mass. The IASS of the live blade was determined from the difference in mass (before and after testing) of the live and dead blades, the ice shed area, and the rpm of the shed event. The same live blade sample was tested in triplicate at all three test temperatures. Surface roughness was determined using a Bruker Dektak XT Stylus Profilometer. Measurements were conducted using a 12.5 μm tip at a vertical range of 65.5 μm with an applied force of 3 mg. Data were collected over a 1.0 mm length at a resolution of 0.056 μm/point. Five single line scans at different locations were collected and processed using a two-point leveling subtraction. The resultant Ra (arithmetic roughness) and Rq (root mean square roughness) average values were calculated.
Smith, Joseph G., Jr.↗
Optimization-Based Model Reduction Scheme for Renewable Energy Power Plants Using Standardized Testing Scenarios
This paper presents an optimization-based model reduction scheme for renewable energy (RE) power plants consisting of inverter-based resources (IBRs) operating in grid-following (GFL) or grid-forming (GFM) modes. More importantly, the datasets feeding the optimization-based model reduction scheme are generated and re-used through the standardized grid-interactive testing scenarios. Particularly, the proposed scheme makes use of the power plant point of common coupling (PCC) measurements of various quantities specified by standardized tests (e.g., voltage and frequency ride through) as per IEEE 2800, to estimate the parameters of the reduced-order model such that its dynamic performance aligns with the original detailed power plant model. The proposed model reduction approach does not require the parameters of individual IBRs and using standardized test data as input to the formulated optimization problem simplifies the reduced-order modelling scheme. Extensive case studies following standardized test scenarios verified the remarkable accuracy of the proposed approach.
Yallamilli, Ram S. [Purdue University]↗
Mitigating energy demand sector emissions: The integrated modelling perspective
Mitigating carbon emissions in the current energy system will require fundamental changes of both the energy supply and the energy demand sectors. Previous global model-based analyses, however, have focused mostly on energy supply transformations, while the energy demand sector changes are less well understood. In this study, this knowledge gap is addressed by analysing in detail the projected future energy demand projections, and the required demand-side changes to reach stringent mitigation targets using a suite of integrated assessment models. We examine industry, transport and buildings sector pathways across four models and three different reference scenarios from the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway framework which is used as a set of common future perspectives by the climate research community. The demand side mitigation efforts are compared to a more detailed, sector-specific, technology-oriented assessments of abatement potential based on a literature review for the year 2030. The results indicate that strong emission growth in the industry and transport sector can be attributed to increasing final energy per capita and population growth. In the stringent mitigation scenarios energy efficiency, electrification and switching to low carbon fuel are all required in the short term. In the green growth SSP1 scenario the required emission reduction is significantly less than other scenarios showing that the demand growth and the technology development largely affects the sectors’ mitigation challenge. The technology assessment estimates that in particular in the transport and buildings sector there is a higher potential to reduce demand-side emissions through energy efficiency improvements than currently envisioned in the integrated assessment models.
Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.↗
Middle atmosphere ion measurements during January, 1976
Parachute-borne measurements of electrical parameters in the stratosphere and mesosphere are discussed which were made in January 1976 as part of a 'coordinated winter-anomaly program' conducted at Wallops Flight Center, Va. The instruments used included Gerdien condensers, a blunt conductivity probe, and UV lamps for obtaining a measure of atmospheric NO. Measurements of the positive component of electrical conductivity on two 'anomalous' and two 'normal' days are compared, wave-interaction electron densities over the height range from 50 to 90 km are determined for the four days, and the effects of the UV lamps on one 'normal' and one 'anomalous' day are described. The results are shown to support the hypothesis that the enhancements in positive ion conductivity observed on 'anomalous' days are caused by a reduction of the aerosol population that is a 'normal' feature of the stratosphere and mesosphere. A possible scenario for this reduction is considered which involves electric-field transport of aerosol particles out of the upper stratosphere and mesosphere.
Hale, L. C.↗
The Potential Impact of Offshore Wind Energy on a Future Power System in the U.S. Northeast
This study aims to understand and quantify the potential impact of offshore wind on a future electricity system in the U.S. Northeast. In this analysis, a detailed representation of the Northeast power system is adopted, using a generation portfolio for 2024 paired with offshore wind nameplate capacities of 0 gigawatts (GW), 2 GW, and 7 GW. The analysis identifies points of offshore wind interconnection in the ISO-New England and New York Independent System Operator control areas and uses hourly wind profiles from the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. Hourly simulations of the 2024 power system operations show an ability to accommodate the prescribed offshore wind capacities by adapting the system's generation dispatch. Curtailment levels of offshore wind range between 4% and 5%. Offshore wind generation displaces primarily natural-gas combined-cycle generation; however, requires increased flexibility from combined cycles through more frequent start-ups. The number of hours with transmission congestion increases because of offshore wind injection, with varying impact on a subregional level. Offshore wind's capacity credit was found to be 14.5%-28.3% and is lower than estimated in other large-scale power system studies, in part because this study considered a different weather year and a power system representation with higher shares of solar PV and onshore wind. The reliability contribution of resources is a topic area identified for more research and collaboration. The 7-GW scenario shows a reduction in locational marginal price of 11%, with production cost savings of up to 18% compared to the 0-GW scenario.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Integration of Decentralized Graph-Based Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Digital Twin for Traffic Signal Optimization
Machine learning (ML) methods, particularly Reinforcement Learning (RL), have gained widespread attention for optimizing traffic signal control in intelligent transportation systems. However, existing ML approaches often exhibit limitations in scalability and adaptability, particularly within large traffic networks. This paper introduces an innovative solution by integrating decentralized graph-based multi-agent reinforcement learning (DGMARL) with a Digital Twin to enhance traffic signal optimization, targeting the reduction of traffic congestion and network-wide fuel consumption associated with vehicle stops and stop delays. In this approach, DGMARL agents are employed to learn traffic state patterns and make informed decisions regarding traffic signal control. The integration with a Digital Twin module further facilitates this process by simulating and replicating the real-time asymmetric traffic behaviors of a complex traffic network. The evaluation of this proposed methodology utilized PTV-Vissim, a traffic simulation software, which also serves as the simulation engine for the Digital Twin. The study focused on the Martin Luther King (MLK) Smart Corridor in Chattanooga, Tennessee, USA, by considering symmetric and asymmetric road layouts and traffic conditions. Comparative analysis against an actuated signal control baseline approach revealed significant improvements. Experiment results demonstrate a remarkable 55.38% reduction in Eco_PI, a developed performance measure capturing the cumulative impact of stops and penalized stop delays on fuel consumption, over a 24 h scenario. In a PM-peak-hour scenario, the average reduction in Eco_PI reached 38.94%, indicating the substantial improvement achieved in optimizing traffic flow and reducing fuel consumption during high-demand periods. These findings underscore the effectiveness of the integrated DGMARL and Digital Twin approach in optimizing traffic signals, contributing to a more sustainable and efficient traffic management system.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Integration of Decentralized Graph-Based Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Digital Twin for Traffic Signal Optimization
Machine learning (ML) methods, particularly Reinforcement Learning (RL), have gained widespread attention for optimizing traffic signal control in intelligent transportation systems. However, existing ML approaches often exhibit limitations in scalability and adaptability, particularly within large traffic networks. This paper introduces an innovative solution by integrating decentralized graph-based multi-agent reinforcement learning (DGMARL) with a Digital Twin to enhance traffic signal optimization, targeting the reduction of traffic congestion and network-wide fuel consumption associated with vehicle stops and stop delays. In this approach, DGMARL agents are employed to learn traffic state patterns and make informed decisions regarding traffic signal control. The integration with a Digital Twin module further facilitates this process by simulating and replicating the real-time asymmetric traffic behaviors of a complex traffic network. The evaluation of this proposed methodology utilized PTV-Vissim, a traffic simulation software, which also serves as the simulation engine for the Digital Twin. The study focused on the Martin Luther King (MLK) Smart Corridor in Chattanooga, Tennessee, USA, by considering symmetric and asymmetric road layouts and traffic conditions. Comparative analysis against an actuated signal control baseline approach revealed significant improvements. Experiment results demonstrate a remarkable 55.38% reduction in Eco_PI, a developed performance measure capturing the cumulative impact of stops and penalized stop delays on fuel consumption, over a 24 h scenario. In a PM-peak-hour scenario, the average reduction in Eco_PI reached 38.94%, indicating the substantial improvement achieved in optimizing traffic flow and reducing fuel consumption during high-demand periods. These findings underscore the effectiveness of the integrated DGMARL and Digital Twin approach in optimizing traffic signals, contributing to a more sustainable and efficient traffic management system.
actuated signal control↗
Reduction or Enhancement of Stellarator Turbulence by Impurities
A systematic study of the impact of impurities on the turbulent heat fluxes is presented for the stellarator Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) and, for comparison, the Large Helical Device and ITER. By means of nonlinear multispecies gyrokinetic simulations, it is shown that impurities, depending on the sign of their density gradient, can significantly enhance or reduce turbulent ion heat losses. For the relevant scenario of turbulence reduction, an optimal impurity concentration that minimizes the ion heat diffusivity emerges as a universal feature. This result demonstrates the potential of impurities for controlling turbulence and accessing enhanced confinement regimes in fusion plasmas and, in particular, in W7-X. Published by the American Physical Society 2024
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Future CH4 Budgets as Modelled By A Fully Coupled Earth System Model Using Prescribed GHG Concentrations vs. Interactive CH4 Sources and Sinks
We have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH4 under different emission scenarios. GISS-E2.1 is one of the few ESMs that can be driven by anthropogenic CH4 emissions, as well as interactive natural sources such as wetlands, and can simulate the tropospheric CH4 chemistry. In frame of the recent short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) assessment by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), we used the GISS-E2.1 model with prescribed long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. In the present study, we have supplemented these simulations using the interactive CH4 sources and sinks in order to quantify the model performance and the sensitivity to CH4 sources and sinks. We have used the Current Legislation (CLE) and the Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) emission scenarios from the Eclipse V6b emission database to simulate the future chemical composition and climate impacts from 2015 to 2050. We have also simulated 1995-2014 in order to evaluate the model performance following the AMAP-SLCF protocol. The prescribed GHG version underestimates the Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) surface CH4 observations during the period between 1995 and 2023 by 1% [-8.4%-2.0%], with a correlation (r) of 0.71 [-0.41 0.99]. The largest underestimations are over the continental emission regions such as North America, Europe, and Asia, while biases are smallest over oceans. On the other hand, the simulation with interactive sources and sinks underestimates the GAW observations more than the prescribed simulation, by 18.5% [-25% -10.4%], with a lower r of 0.36 [-0.82 0.93]. Opposite to the prescribed simulation, the biases are largest over oceans and smaller over the continents, however they are still larger over land than the prescribed simulation. The interactive simulation, with large sources virtually over land and strong sink over oceans, has a land/ocean ratio larger than 1 while the prescribed simulation has this ratio equal to 1 as it distributes the global prescribed CH4 concentration equally in longitude over a given latitude. This clearly shows that the interactive sources and sinks should be represented in models in order to realistically simulate the chemical composition and the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. As expected, the MFR scenario simulates lower global surface CH4 concentrations and burdens compared to the CLE scenario, however in both cases, global surface CH4 and burden continue to increase through 2050 compared to present day. In the CLE scenario, increases are largest over the equatorial belt, in particular over India and East China, while the MFR scenario shows increases over the whole Southern Hemisphere, however much smaller compared to CLE. Finally, the interactive simulation shows that the chemical CH4 sink increases in the CLE scenario, while it slightly decreases in the MFR, leading to a larger CH4 lifetime in the MFR scenario compared to in the CLE scenario.
CH4↗
Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model
The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990–2014) and future (2015–2050) simulations have been carried out using the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model to study the aerosol burdens and their radiative and climate impacts over the Arctic (>60°N), using anthropogenic emissions from the Eclipse V6b and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) databases, while global annual mean greenhouse gas concentrations were prescribed and kept fixed in all simulations. Results showed that the simulations have underestimated observed surface aerosol levels, in particular black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO2−4), by more than 50 %, with the smallest biases calculated for the atmosphere-only simulations, where winds are nudged to reanalysis data. CMIP6 simulations performed slightly better in reproducing the observed surface aerosol concentrations and climate parameters, compared to the Eclipse simulations. In addition, simulations where atmosphere and ocean are fully coupled had slightly smaller biases in aerosol levels compared to atmosphere-only simulations without nudging. Arctic BC, organic aerosol (OA), and SO2−4 burdens decrease significantly in all simulations by 10 %–60 % following the reductions of 7 %–78 % in emission projections, with the Eclipse ensemble showing larger reductions in Arctic aerosol burdens compared to the CMIP6 ensemble. For the 2030–2050 period, the Eclipse ensemble simulated a radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation interactions (RFARI) of −0.39 ± 0.01 W/sq. m, which is −0.08 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing (−0.32 W/sq. m), of which −0.24 ± 0.01 W/sq. m was attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols. The CMIP6 ensemble simulated a RFARI of −0.35 to −0.40 W/sq. m for the same period, which is −0.01 to −0.06 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing of −0.35 W/sq. m. The scenarios with little to no mitigation (worst-case scenarios) led to very small changes in the RFARI, while scenarios with medium to large emission mitigations led to increases in the negative RFARI, mainly due to the decrease in the positive BC forcing and the decrease in the negative SO2−4 forcing. The anthropogenic aerosols accounted for −0.24 to −0.26 W/sq. m of the net RFARI in 2030–2050 period, in Eclipse and CMIP6 ensembles, respectively. Finally, all simulations showed an increase in the Arctic surface air temperatures throughout the simulation period. By 2050, surface air temperatures are projected to increase by 2.4 to 2.6 °C in the Eclipse ensemble and 1.9 to 2.6 °C in the CMIP6 ensemble, compared to the 1990–2010 mean. Overall, results show that even the scenarios with largest emission reductions leads to similar impact on the future Arctic surface air temperatures and sea-ice extent compared to scenarios with smaller emission reductions, implying reductions of greenhouse emissions are still necessary to mitigate climate change.
Aerosols↗
Impact of a dynamic grid mix and climate on operational carbon emissions modeling for different building typologies and climate zones
Calculating operational carbon emissions through a building’s lifecycle is complex due to the dynamic nature of influencing factors such as climate and energy grid mix. This paper introduces a novel methodology for modeling 30-year operational carbon impacts of buildings and applies this method to mid-rise office and residential typologies across various US climate zones. The method accounts for these temporal variabilities using new and scarcely cited data sources. Key findings indicate that future changes in the climate, while impactful, play a relatively modest role in operational carbon emissions compared to significant reductions with modeling scenarios using the projected decarbonization of the electricity grid. Here, the study also finds that using annual, month-hourly, or hourly grid emission factors have a minimal impact on carbon accounting, except in certain climates and program types where emission patterns do not align with a building’s energy consumption. Warmer climates like Miami, Florida and Tucson, Arizona, which rely heavily on cooling, demonstrate larger variations in carbon emissions when using higher temporal resolution emission factors. Ultimately, this study underscores the critical role of grid decarbonization in reducing long-term emissions and the importance of incorporating this variable in life cycle assessment (LCA) modeling.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Conversion of plastic waste into high-value lubricants: techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment
Given the low recycling rate of plastic waste in the United States due to low economic incentives, it is of great interest to develop a technology to upgrade plastic waste with favorable economics. Plastic upcycling to valuable chemicals could ensure a circular economy for plastics and reduce the environmental burden caused by their end use cycle and disposal. A conceptual facility to convert 250 metric ton (MT) per day of plastic waste was modeled; the main product was a high-quality liquid (HQL) with a similar performance to polyalphaolefin (PAO) lubricants. The modeled process had a lubricant yield of up to 90% based on the experimental results at the laboratory scale. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were also performed to evaluate the process economics and its environmental impact. By using a mixture of colored and natural high-density polyethylene (HDPE), the production cost was in the range of 0.6–1.98 dollars per kg of lubricant, depending on the operating conditions. The life cycle emissions were in the range of 0.48–1.2 kg CO 2e kg Lub -1 showing, for the best case scenario, a 52% reduction relative to the emissions for petroleum lubricants, and a 74% reduction relative to the emissions for PAO lubricants. Finally, the impacts of the lubricant yield, the catalyst amount, and reaction time were evaluated, and their effect on the final production cost was discussed.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
A Clustering-Based Scenario Generation Framework for Power Market Simulation with Wind Integration
A critical step in stochastic optimization models of power system analysis is to select a set of appropriate scenarios and significant numbers of scenario generation methods exist in the literature. This paper develops a clustering based scenario generation method, which aims to improve the performance of existing scenario generation techniques by grouping a set of correlated wind sites into clusters according to their cross-correlations. Copula based models are utilized to model spatiotemporal correlations and the Gibbs sampling is then used to generate scenarios for day-ahead markets. Our results show that the generated scenarios based on clustered wind sites outperform existing approaches in terms of reliability and sharpness and can reduce the total computational time for scenario generation and reduction significantly. The clustering-based framework can therefore provide a better support for real-world market simulations with high wind penetration.
data visualization↗