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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Economic assessment of seismic monitoring for underground hydrogen storage

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) plays a key role in the energy landscape. However, like other subsurface engineering technologies, UHS may cause leakage into the groundwater or atmosphere and possibly induce local seismicity. To reduce these risks, seismic monitoring could be a viable technique to track the UHS plume, detect leakages, and locate induced seismicity events. Seismic monitoring has been proposed to safely monitor UHS, but research in this area is still new and requires field studies. Lab and theoretical studies have demonstrated the validity of seismic monitoring for UHS. Therefore, it is imperative to analyze the economic feasibility of seismic monitoring for UHS. Hence, we develop a cost model and open-source Python code for seismic monitoring that considers types of seismometers, comprehensive operational scenarios, detection thresholds, and long-term leakage monitoring. A case study is further provided to validate the cost model on reservoir simulations of UHS. We find that the levelized cost for a 10-year operating UHS site will range on the order of ∼0.003 $\$$/kg. The methods developed in this study could also be applied to the monitoring of groundwater, gas, and/or wastewater injection.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gaussian Kernel Methods for Seismic Fragility and Risk Assessment of Mid-Rise Buildings

Seismic fragility functions can be evaluated using the cloud analysis method with linear regression which makes three fundamental assumptions about the relation between structural response and seismic intensity: log-linear median relationship, constant standard deviation, and Gaussian distributed errors. While cloud analysis with linear regression is a popular method, the degree to which these individual and compounded assumptions affect the fragility and the risk of mid-rise buildings needs to be systematically studied. This paper conducts such a study considering three building archetypes that make up a bulk of the building stock: RC moment frame, steel moment frame, and wood shear wall. Gaussian kernel methods are employed to capture the data-driven variations in the median structural response and standard deviation and the distributions of residuals with the intensity level. With reference to the Gaussian kernels approach, it is found that while the linear regression assumptions may not affect the fragility functions of lower damage states, this conclusion does not hold for the higher damage states (such as the Complete state). In addition, the effects of linear regression assumptions on the seismic risk are evaluated. For predicting the demand hazard, it is found that the linear regression assumptions can impact the computed risk for larger structural response values. However, for predicting the loss hazard with downtime as the decision variable, linear regression can be considered adequate for all practical purposes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A review of risk and uncertainty assessment for geologic carbon storage

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in geological formations play a key role in mitigating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and achieving the aggressive goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Risk and uncertainty assessment is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of geologic carbon storage (GCS) by evaluating CO 2 migration in subsurface, forecasting potential leakage and induced seismicity risks, and optimizing operational and monitoring plans. In this review, the use and progress of risk assessment for GCS over the last few decades are examined. Here, we use the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP), which is one of the seven regional partnerships supported by the United States Department of Energy (U.S. DOE), as an example of large-scale CCUS projects in North America. Additionally, future trends and requirements for risk assessment in GCS are discussed. The information provided in this review can help readers understand the significance of risk and uncertainty assessment and apply it effectively in large-scale GCS projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Three-Dimensional Site Effects at Mortandad Canyon, NM: I. Validation against ambient noise recordings of topography effects

Observations from large earthquakes have shown that the presence of a strong topographic relief can significantly aggravate the catastrophic consequences of strong seismic motions. Structures on the tops of hills, ridges, and canyons, for example, have suffered systematically greater damage than similar structures at the hill bases or on level ground. Various earthquake recordings have confirmed the macroseismic observations, indicating systematic amplification of seismic motion over convex topographies, deamplification over concave topographic features, and complex amplification and deamplification patterns on hill slopes that result in significant differential motion. Despite the documented evidence of their role in elevating seismic risk, however, topography effects are not accounted for in the majority of seismic code provisions and microzonation studies, which are based instead on models of flat earth surface.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Benchmarking MCNP models to support gamma irradiation experiments

Seismic isolators and damping devices have been used for 30+ years to reduce seismic forces and deployed in 10,000+ structures, including bridges, buildings, and mission-critical infrastructure. Studies have shown that seismic isolation of nuclear power plants can reduce the seismic risk by several orders of magnitude and substantially reduce the overnight capital cost. Advanced reactor developers are considering seismic isolation as an integral design feature in their reactor design. It can either be deployed at the building level, isolating the entire reactor building, or at the component level, isolating individual pieces of safety-class equipment, such as a reactor vessel or a steam generator. For equipment isolation, located close to the reactor vessel, the seismic isolators and/or damping devices may be exposed to gamma and neutron radiation, with a possible effect on their mechanical properties which would affect the response of the isolated equipment under earthquake shaking. The Department of Energy, as part of its Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP), in collaboration with the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), is funding a project at the University at Buffalo (UB) to investigate the effect of gamma radiation on the mechanical properties of various seismic protective devices. (When isolating equipment, the seismic protective devices will be located outside the reactor vessel where the neutron exposure will be insignificant.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prestack Waveform Inversion at GC 955: Trials and sensitivity of PWI to high-resolution seismic data (Data Report)

Understanding the spatial extent and variability of hydrate deposits has important implications for potential economic production, climate change, and assessing natural hazards risks. Seismic reflection techniques are capable of determining the extent of gas hydrate deposits and can shed light on hydrate concentrations and properties. Using high resolution prestack time migrated seismic data collected during a 2013 US Geological Survey expedition and prestack waveform inversion (PWI) techniques, we produce highly resolved velocity models and compare them to co-located well logs. Coupling our PWI results with velocity-porosity relationships and nearby well control, we compare hydrate properties at site 955 in the Green Canyon and site 313 at Walker Ridge.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving and Automating Building Model Data Exchange

There are many instances throughout a project’s lifecycle where there arises a need for quick and accurate risk assessment of building designs. For example, an unexpected design change during construction may necessitate structural engineers to perform a seismic risk assessment on analytical models of the updated building design using high fidelity structural analysis software, such as ANSYS or Abaqus. However, the efficiency of such workflows often depends upon the interoperability of architectural design software and structural analysis software. When the quality of this interoperability is lacking or even non-existent, the efficiency of virtual engineering workflows is hampered, which increases project costs. A McGraw Hill industry survey of professional users of Building Information Modeling (BIM) technologies found that there is high demand for BIM interoperability for structural analysis, but that the value/difficulty ratio is currently too low for practical use. There have been efforts by the academic community to facilitate model data exchange between the architectural design and structural analysis domains, but such solutions have not been widely adopted by industry, face technical challenges, and oftentimes are limited in applicability for users of various BIM software. Therefore, INL is developing capabilities to improve, automate, and generalize model data exchange between architectural BIM software (e.g., Revit) and structural analysis software (e.g., SAP2000, ANSYS). The goal is to help expedite and automate as much of the pre-processing step for creating analytical models in finite element analysis software as reasonably as possible. Such a "BIM-to-FEA" conversion tool should provide direct benefit to end-users through accuracy, automation, quick turn-around, and wide applicability. To generalize the application of this BIM-to-FEA conversion tool and increase its useability among the many different commercial BIM software currently used by industry, the program is being developed with the concept of openBIM. OpenBIM is the application of non-proprietary, open data standards that allow for BIM model data exchange in a format that is accessible, retainable, and useable for all users. The most widely used open, non-proprietary data exchange format for BIM is the Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) schema. IFC is developed by buildingSMART international and is ISO certified (ISO 16739-1:2018). The BIM-to-FEA conversion tool is being developed for compatibility with typical commercial building designs of steel framed structures. The tool is currently capable of importing architectural BIM data of framed building structures, recognizing and extracting the aspects of the model that are required for structural analysis, adjusting the connectivity of frame members, and finally exporting to an analytical model stored in the IFC format. The exported IFC analytical model can then be imported into various openBIM compliant software, such as SAP2000. Such capabilities have already been tested on commercial software, as shown above, and continue to be improved. Work is underway to test the conversion on various commercial BIM software, develop a user-friendly interface, incorporate the program into the broader DeepLynx data warehouse project being developed by INL, and to eventually open-source the tool for the benefit of the community. Future development of the tool envisions the ability for efficient iterative risk assessment of generative building designs, all within a workflow utilizing open-source tools. One such open-source tool will be MOOSE, an advanced finite element analysis tool developed at INL. The conversion tool will also branch out from typical commercial building designs and will aim to incorporate nuclear construction. The aim will be to convert both structural and non-structural components of nuclear facilities, such as curved concrete containment structures and piping systems, respectively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Transportation and Distributed Energy Systems Risk and Feasibility Assessment for Airport Facilities - CRADA 555 (Abstract)

This CRADA presents the strategy that Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) will take to support PDX in performing a risk assessment for several hydrogen deployment scenarios. It is intended that the deployment of hydrogen at PDX could serve several roles, including decarbonizing its bus fleet and building out a distributed energy system which could also be used to facilitate emergency operations. PDX’s initial plans concern replacing their current fleet of 28 busses with FCEBs. To do so, PDX will need to deploy the hydrogen systems needed to support the buses. This includes hydrogen storage, production, delivery, filling, compression, and maintenance. PDX also has long range plans to build a distributed energy system to support normal and resilient operations. This study will investigate the risks of each plan individually, and a combined plan which serves both. Additionally, PDX is in an area with the potential for high seismic activity, as such this work will also include a seismic risk assessment. A detailed risk assessment using PDX as a test case is necessary to ensure the deployment of large-scale hydrogen is successful and to understand the benefits or drawbacks in contrast to electric only technologies. Many technologies have been proposed that claim to utilize hydrogen for both transportation and distributed energy systems; however, these technologies need to be analyzed as they apply to an actual site. The physical infrastructure and hydrogen use cases for PDX will be analyzed, a risk assessment will be performed on the hydrogen infrastructure and distributed energy system. These assessments will be useful for understanding how each of these technologies would perform as applied to a large public facility and public safety. The results of this CRADA, and an impact of the DOE funding, will evaluate hydrogen as a key fuel for PDX and will accelerate by several years availability of hydrogen, fuel cells, and other low-carbon technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative Risk Assessment (Topical Report)

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in geological formations plays a key role in mitigating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and achieving the aggressive goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Quantitative risk assessment is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of geologic carbon storage (GCS) by evaluating CO 2 migration in subsurface, forecasting potential leakage and induced seismicity risks, and optimizing operational and monitoring plans. We present the use, progress, and research trends of risk assessment from the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) as an example of large-scale CCUS projects in North America. The information provided in this report can help readers understand the significance of risk and uncertainty assessment and apply them effectively in large-scale CCUS projects.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seismic response of vertical dry storage casks under three-dimensional earthquake motions

Ensuring the long-term seismic safety of dry storage casks (DSCs) is becoming increasingly critical as these systems evolve from temporary to de facto permanent repositories for spent nuclear fuels. Traditional seismic soil–structure interaction (SSI) assessment methods use one-dimensional deconvolution or simplified boundary conditions to model incident waves. Although computationally appealing, simplifying assumptions may alter the seismic risk by neglecting the full complexity of three-dimensional (3D) wave propagation effects. To address this challenge, this paper introduces a novel high-fidelity computational framework that leverages the Domain Reduction Method (DRM) with perfectly matched layers (PML) to accurately transfer complex, 3D seismic wavefields from regional-scale fault-rupture simulations into local-scale finite element models of DSCs. Using broadband, physics-based ground motions from a generic M w 7.0 strike-slip event, both single-cask and multi-cask configurations were investigated under near- and far-field conditions. Emphasis is placed on capturing complex SSI, spatial variability in the ground motion, and nonlinear phenomena such as cask rocking and sliding. Numerical results demonstrate that near-field conditions, where forward directivity and fling-step effects dominate, lead to significantly higher DSC rocking and sliding. Far-field cases, by contrast, generally exhibit modest responses. Incorporating SSI tends to amplify or alter DSC response spectra and introduce response variability, which underscores the need for site-specific evaluations and robust modeling approaches to ensure the seismic integrity of DSCs in interim spent fuel storage installations.

Das, Tonmoy↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mixed-Mechanism Stimulation Enabled Enhanced Geothermal Systems (CRADA FP00007509 Final Report)

In this project, we aimed to develop a robust, novel EGS design that would enable broad deployment of geothermal energy at costs competitive with other sources of renewable energy. The technical objectives included developing reservoir models for synthetic geothermal systems that meet target reservoir performance characteristics, performing a quantitative assessment of selection criteria for candidate geothermal sites, perform proppant studies under relevant geothermal conditions, and complete an induced seismicity risk analysis for potential geothermal development sites. The project team made significant progress towards these objectives. Specifically, we developed a prioritization to rank candidate sites for suitability of our technology based on 10 separate technical, operational, logistic, regulatory, and commercial criteria. The team performed laboratory testing at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to characterize the functionality of several different types of proppant materials at temperatures of up to 200 C for durations of up to 9 weeks. We also created an Induced Seismicity Mitigation Plan for the top two sites selected for our future field demonstrations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating uncertainty quantification in incremental dynamic analysis using dimension reduction-based surrogate modeling

We propose a surrogate modeling framework based on dimension reduction to facilitate the quantification of seismic risk of structural systems in performance-based earthquake engineering. The framework adopts incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) for addressing hazard variability, and promotes significant computational efficiency improvement for propagating epistemic uncertainties associated with the structural models. It utilizes both linear and nonlinear dimension reduction approaches, equipped with inverse mappings, to learn a functional between the input parameter space (e.g., the epistemic uncertainties of the structure) to the high-dimensional output space created through the IDA implementation across different ground motions and seismic intensity levels. Polynomial chaos expansion is adopted as the surrogate model to learn this functional in the reduced space. A nine-story steel moment-resisting frame with uncertain structural properties is used as a testbed. Furthermore, we select the seismic fragility curves as a measure of the structure’s seismic performance, since it provides an estimate of the probability of entering specified damage states for given levels of ground shaking.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled geomechanical investigation of depletion-induced fault reactivation

Fault reactivation during subsurface fluid production pose significant challenges to safe and sustainable resource extraction. Here, this study presents a three-dimensional coupled geomechanical framework to investigate the processes driving fault reactivation, capturing the interactions between reservoir dynamics and geomechanical responses. Verification against theoretical estimations based on linear poroelasticity confirms the model's capacity in representing reservoir background stress responses. However, the study reveals that relying solely on background stress states can underestimate or overestimate fault reactivation potential, emphasizing the importance of including localized stress perturbations such as differential compaction and stress redistribution. Applied to a fault (M1) inspired by the geological characteristics of the Groningen field, the model shows slip initiation at 2965 m depth with 16.0 MPa depletion, aligning with field observations where seismicity occurred at approximately 3 km depth after 15.8 MPa depletion. Parametric studies reveal: (1) inelastic reservoir compaction delays fault reactivation and mitigates fault slip by reducing stress concentration, (2) higher intermediate in-situ stress magnitudes decrease the Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) increase rate and reduce fault slip, (3) larger fault offsets amplify shear stress near the offset zone, promoting earlier reactivation and longer rupture propagation, and (4) fault permeability significantly influences pressure diffusion, with low-permeability faults leading to sharper stress changes and earlier fault destabilization. These insights highlight the critical role of geological and mechanical parameters in fault reactivation and provide a predictive framework for mitigating induced seismicity risks.

Coupled geomechanical modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cooling-induced reactivation of distant faults during long-term geothermal energy production in hot sedimentary aquifers

Deep geothermal energy (DGE) represents an opportunity for a sustainable and carbon-free energy supply. One of the main concerns of DGE is induced seismicity that may produce damaging earthquakes, challenging its widespread exploitation. It is widely believed that the seismicity risk can be controlled by using doublet systems circulating water to minimize the injection-induced pressure changes. However, cold water reinjection may also give rise to thermal stresses within and beyond the cooled region, whose potential impacts on fault reactivation are less well understood. Here, we investigate by coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling the processes that may lead to fault reactivation in a hot sedimentary aquifer (HSA) in which water is circulated through a doublet. We show that thermal stresses are transmitted much ahead of the cooled region and are likely to destabilize faults located far away from the doublet. Meanwhile, the fault permeability mainly controls the fault reactivation timing, which entails the importance of employing appropriate characterization methods. This investigation is crucial for understanding the mechanisms controlling induced seismicity associated with DGE in a HSA and allows the success of future DGE projects.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Precise relative magnitude measurement improves fracture characterization during hydraulic fracturing

SUMMARY Microseismic monitoring is an important technique to obtain detailed knowledge of in-situ fracture size and orientation during stimulation to maximize fluid flow throughout the rock volume and optimize production. Furthermore, considering that the frequency of earthquake magnitudes empirically follows a power law (i.e. Gutenberg–Richter), the accuracy of microseismic event magnitude distributions is potentially crucial for seismic risk management. In this study, we analyse microseismicity observed during four hydraulic fracture treatments of the legacy Cotton Valley experiment in 1997 at the Carthage gas field of East Texas, where fractures were activated at the base of the sand-shale Upper Cotton Valley formation. We perform waveform cross-correlation to detect similar event clusters, measure relative amplitude from aligned waveform pairs with a principal component analysis, then measure precise relative magnitudes. The new magnitudes significantly reduce the deviations between magnitude differences and relative amplitudes of event pairs. This subsequently reduces the magnitude differences between clusters located at different depths. Reduction in magnitude differences between clusters suggests that some attenuation-related biases could be effectively mitigated with relative magnitude measurements. The maximum likelihood method is applied to understand the magnitude frequency distributions and quantify the seismogenic index of the clusters. Statistical analyses with new magnitudes suggest that fractures that are more favourably oriented for shear failure have lower b-value and higher seismogenic index, suggesting higher potential for relatively larger earthquakes, rather than fractures subparallel to maximum horizontal principal stress orientation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

EGS Collab Experiment 1: SIMFIP Notch-164 GRL Paper

Characterizing the stimulation mode of a fracture is critical to assess the hydraulic efficiency and the seismic risk related to deep fluid manipulations. We have monitored the three-dimensional displacements of a fluid-driven fracture during water injections in a borehole at ~1.5 km depth in the crystalline rock of the Sanford Underground Research Facility (USA). The fracture initiates at 61% of the minimum horizontal stress by micro-shearing of the borehole on a foliation plane. As the fluid pressure increases further, borehole axial and radial displacements increase with injection time highlighting the opening and sliding of a new hydrofracture growing ~10 m away from the borehole, in accordance with the ambient normal stress regime and in alignment with the microseismicity. Our study reveals how fluid-driven fracture stimulation can be facilitated by a mixed-mode process controlled by the complex hydromechanical evolution of the growing fracture. The data presented in this submission refer to the SIMFIP measurements and analyses of the stimulation tests conducted on the 164 ft (50 m) notch of the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF), during the EGS-Collab test 1. In addition to the datafiles, there is the draft of a manuscript submitted to Geophysical Research Letters (GRL).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

LCC-based framework for building envelope and structure co-design considering energy efficiency and natural hazard performance

Herein, this paper presents a life-cycle cost (LCC) informed co-design framework for building structures and envelope systems, holistically considering the influences of energy and natural hazard performance. The proposed method is consisted of a two-stage design and decision-making process, aiming to provide a quantitative guideline for building's structural and envelope co-design based on the its geographic locations. First, the building's structural configuration and envelope type are selected based on the life cycle cost. Then, the long-term cost effectiveness of various energy-saving building envelope options (e.g., high-performance glazing and insulation) is evaluated to refine the envelope design. The proposed co-design framework was demonstrated through the case study of a medium-size office building archetype in three locations with distinct climate conditions and seismic activities (i.e., Los Angeles, Memphis, and Boston). The results highlighted the interplay between building's structural (seismic) performance and the cost-effectiveness of energy-saving design options – e.g., for buildings located in high-seismic regions, seismic enhancing designs greatly reduce the paybak period of high performance building envelope by reducing the seismic loss; whereas for buildings located in regions with cold climate and low seismic risk such as Boston, spatial frame with high insulation building envelope shows the lowest LCC.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stress Field Dynamics and Fault Slip Potential in the Paradox Basin

Abstract The Paradox Basin, straddling Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico is characterized by an intricate amalgamation of evaporites and clastic layers and is dominated by prominent salt walls and related subsurface structures. Our research offers a new examination of the stress distribution across the basin, deriving from continuous and discrete stress measurements conducted in boreholes in the region and focal mechanism analysis, emphasizing variations over salt structures. Integrating Coulomb failure criteria with probabilistic methods, we assess potential fault movements resulting from fluid pressure alterations. Our approach provides a comprehensive understanding of the Paradox Basin's state of stress, showing a continuous change of the maximum horizontal stress orientation from N‐S at the Wasatch Fault Zone to WNW‐ESE in the northern part of the Paradox Basin and to WSW‐ENE in the southern part of the basin. Further East, into the Colorado Plateau and the Uncompahgre Uplift, the S H max orientation becomes E‐W. Decoding stress orientation dynamics has enabled critical insights into fault slip potential, especially in the basin's northern region. The salt wall faults are less likely to slip, and the Paradox Formation's evaporite and clastic rock sequence can serve as a potential low seismic risk target for carbon storage and hydrocarbon extraction.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗