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25 records · Page 2

AGFormer: Adaptive Spatiotemporal graph informed transformer for multi-reservoir inflow forecasting

Accurate reservoir inflow forecasting is crucial for effective water resource management, yet most machine learning models focus on single-reservoir prediction and overlook spatial dependencies among hydrologically connected reservoirs. Here, we propose AGFormer (Adaptive Graph-Informed Transformer), an end-to-end framework that integrates adaptive graph learning with temporal sequence modeling for multi-reservoir inflow forecasting. A shared encoder and graph attention mechanism generate reservoir-specific embeddings, which are then processed by the Transformer-based encoder–decoder for multi-step inflow forecasting. We also introduce a pretraining paradigm to learn robust temporal embeddings from misaligned historical records. Evaluated on 30 reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin, AGFormer achieves superior seven-day-ahead forecasts, with NSE > 0.75 for 20 reservoirs—outperforming Encoder–Decoder LSTM, GCN+LSTM, and Transformer baselines. Adaptive graph learning captures dynamic inter-reservoir dependencies, and feature attribution aligns with snowmelt-driven hydrology. Incorporating forecasted meteorological inputs further enhances accuracy, demonstrating AGFormer’s potential to support reservoir management under dynamic hydrological conditions.

Adaptive graph learning

The Importance of Being Adaptable: An Exploration of the Power and Limitations of Domain Adaptation for Simulation-Based Inference with Galaxy Clusters

The application of deep machine learning methods in astronomy has exploded in the last decade, with new models showing remarkably improved performance on benchmark tasks. Not nearly enough attention is given to understanding the models' robustness, especially when the test data are systematically different from the training data, or "out of domain." Domain shift poses a significant challenge for simulation-based inference, where models are trained on simulated data but applied to real observational data. In this paper, we explore domain shift and test domain adaptation methods for a specific scientific case: simulation-based inference for estimating galaxy cluster masses from X-ray profiles. We build datasets to mimic simulation-based inference: a training set from the Magneticum simulation, a scatter-augmented training set to capture uncertainties in scaling relations, and a test set derived from the IllustrisTNG simulation. We demonstrate that the Test Set is out of domain in subtle ways that would be difficult to detect without careful analysis. We apply three deep learning methods: a standard neural network (NN), a neural network trained on the scatter-augmented input catalogs, and a Deep Reconstruction-Regression Network (DRRN), a semi-supervised deep model engineered to address domain shift. Although the NN improves results by 17% in the Training Data, it performs 40% worse on the out-of-domain Test Set. Surprisingly, the Scatter-Augmented Neural Network (SANN) performs similarly. While the DRRN is successful in mapping the training and Test Data onto the same latent space, it consistently underperforms compared to a straightforward Yx scaling relation. These results serve as a warning that simulation-based inference must be handled with extreme care, as subtle differences between training simulations and observational data can lead to unforeseen biases creeping into the results.

Ntampaka, Michelle [Baltimore, Space Telescope Sci

Revealing the evolution of order in materials microstructures using multi-modal computer vision

The development of high-performance materials for microelectronics, energy storage, and extreme environments depends on our ability to describe and direct property-defining microstructural order. Our present understanding is typically derived from laborious manual analysis of imaging and spectroscopy data, which is difficult to scale, challenging to reproduce, and lacks the ability to reveal latent associations needed for mechanistic models. Here, we demonstrate a multi-modal machine learning (ML) approach to describe order from electron microscopy analysis of the complex oxide La 1−x Sr x FeO 3 . We construct a hybrid pipeline based on fully and semi-supervised classification, allowing us to evaluate both the characteristics of each data modality and the value each modality adds to the ensemble. We observe distinct differences in the performance of uni- and multi-modal models, from which we draw general lessons in describing crystal order using computer vision.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Enhancing Interpretability in Generative Modeling: Statistically Disentangled Latent Spaces Guided by Generative Factors in Scientific Datasets

This study addresses the challenge of statistically extracting generative factors from complex, high-dimensional datasets in unsupervised or semi-supervised settings. We investigate encoder-decoder-based generative models for nonlinear dimensionality reduction, focusing on disentangling low-dimensional latent variables corresponding to independent physical factors. Introducing Aux-VAE, a novel architecture within the classical Variational Autoencoder framework, we achieve disentanglement with minimal modifications to the standard VAE loss function by leveraging prior statistical knowledge through auxiliary variables. These variables guide the shaping of the latent space by aligning latent factors with learned auxiliary variables. We validate the efficacy of Aux-VAE through comparative assessments on multiple datasets, including astronomical simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Multilabel proportion prediction and out-of-distribution detection on gamma spectra of short-lived fission products

In the machine learning problem of multilabel classification, the objective is to determine for each test instance which classes the instance belongs to. In this work, we consider an extension of multilabel classification, called multilabel proportion prediction, in the context of radioisotope identification (RIID) using gamma spectra data. We aim to not only predict radioisotope proportions, but also identify out-of-distribution (OOD) spectra. We achieve this goal by viewing gamma spectra as discrete probability distributions, and based on this perspective, we develop a custom semi-supervised loss function that combines a traditional supervised loss with an unsupervised reconstruction error function. Our approach was motivated by its application to the analysis of short-lived fission products from spent nuclear fuel. In particular, we demonstrate that a neural network model trained with our loss function can successfully predict the relative proportions of 37 radioisotopes simultaneously. The model trained with synthetic data was then applied to measurements taken by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to conduct analysis typically done by subject-matter experts. Here, we also extend our approach to successfully identify when measurements are OOD, and thus should not be trusted, whether due to the presence of a novel source or novel proportions.

Anomaly detection

Physics and chemistry from parsimonious representations: image analysis via invariant variational autoencoders

Electron, optical, and scanning probe microscopy methods are generating ever increasing volume of image data containing information on atomic and mesoscale structures and functionalities. This necessitates the development of the machine learning methods for discovery of physical and chemical phenomena from the data, such as manifestations of symmetry breaking phenomena in electron and scanning tunneling microscopy images, or variability of the nanoparticles. Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are emerging as a powerful paradigm for the unsupervised data analysis, allowing to disentangle the factors of variability and discover optimal parsimonious representation. Here, we summarize recent developments in VAEs, covering the basic principles and intuition behind the VAEs. The invariant VAEs are introduced as an approach to accommodate scale and translation invariances present in imaging data and separate known factors of variations from the ones to be discovered. We further describe the opportunities enabled by the control over VAE architecture, including conditional, semi-supervised, and joint VAEs. Several case studies of VAE applications for toy models and experimental datasets in Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy are discussed, emphasizing the deep connection between VAE and basic physical principles. Python codes and datasets discussed in this article are available at https://github.com/saimani5/VAE-tutorials and can be used by researchers as an application guide when applying these to their own datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Building Datasets and Training Methods for ML Based Magnet Quench Detection

Detecting quenches in superconducting (SC) magnets during training is a challenging process that involves capturing physical events that occur at different frequencies and appear as various signal features. These events may be correlated across instrumentation type, thermal cycle, and ramp. These events together build a more complete picture of continuous processes occurring in the magnet, and may allow us to flag potential precursors for quench detection. We present our work on building an automatic machine learning (ML) based quench detection system. We build upon our existing work on unsupervised auto-encoders for acoustic sensors and quench antenna (QA) by first establishing a supervised ML training pipeline. We show the results of an event tagging, analysis, and simulation framework on our QA and acoustic data which are used concurrently to build a training dataset for a supervised implementation. We then show how this supervised training can be used as a prior in a semi-supervised framework and compare this to the unsupervised neural network auto-encoder performance.This allows us to have a more concrete understanding of the performance of our algorithms relative to physical events occurring in the magnet, and also provides a baseline software tool to generically evaluate our quench prediction autoencoders under completely unsupervised, supervised, and semi-supervised training conditions.

Khan, Maira [Fermilab]