Understanding the Implications of Merging Existing Lightning Datasets with GLM for Severe Thunderstorm Monitoring
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Techniques, equipment, and results of studies (1978-1980) to determine the relationships between electrical phenomena and the dynamics and precipitation of storms are reported. Doppler and conventional radar, video tapes and movies, and VHF recording devices were used to monitor an area 200 x 100 km, aligned SW to NE. The 23 cm radar and a Doppler radar were employed to acquire radar echoes from lightning. Observations of a squall line, a severe storm, and radar echoes from electrical discharges are described. Positively charged cloud-to-ground lightning was observed during the severe and final stages of severe storms; average lightning rates and total flashes for normal and severe storms are provided. Comparisons of lightning echoes and electric field changes indicated that abrupt increases in radar reflectivity were correlated with return strokes and K-type field changes.
The upgrade of the National Weather Service (NWS) network of S ]band dual-polarization radars is currently underway, and the incorporation of polarimetric information into the real ]time forecasting process will enhance the forecaster fs ability to assess thunderstorms and their near ]storm environments. Recent research has suggested that the combination of polarimetric variables differential reflectivity (ZDR) and specific differential phase (KDP) can be useful in the assessment of low level wind shear within a thunderstorm. In an environment with strong low ]level veering of the wind, ZDR values will be largest along the right inflow edge of the thunderstorm near a large gradient in horizontal reflectivity (indicative of large raindrops falling with a relative lack of smaller drops), and take the shape of an arc. Meanwhile, KDP values, which are proportional to liquid water content and indicative of a large number of smaller drops, are maximized deeper into the forward flank precipitation shield than the ZDR arc as the smaller drops are being advected further from the updraft core by the low level winds than the larger raindrops. Using findings from previous work, three severe weather events that occurred in North Alabama were examined in order to assess the utility of these signatures in determining the potential for tornadic activity. The first case is from October 26, 2010, where a large number of storms indicated tornadic potential from a standard reflectivity and velocity analysis but very few storms actually produced tornadoes. The second event is from February 28, 2011, where tornadic storms were present early on in the event, but as the day progressed, the tornado threat transitioned to a high wind threat. The third case is from April 27, 2011, where multiple rounds of tornadic storms ransacked the Tennessee Valley. This event provides a dataset including multiple modes of tornadic development, including QLCS and supercell structures. The overarching goal of examining these three events is to compare dual ]polarization features from this larger dataset to previous work and to determine if these signatures can be a useful indication of the potential for tornadic activity associated with the amount of low ]level wind shear in the near ]storm environment.
The structure of the thunderstorm gust front is investigated by a nonhydrostatic, two-dimensional (x,z) numerical model. In the model, which is dry, the production of negatively buoyant air by evaporation is parameterized via an externally imposed, local-cooling function. This parameterization sustains a steady cold downdraft, which drives the surface outflow and associated gust front. It is shown that two dominant factors influencing gust front structure in the vertical plane are the solenoidal field coincident with the front and surface friction, modeled by means of a simple bulk aerodynamic drag formulation. The circulation theorem is invoked to illustrate how solenoidal accelerations oppose the deceleration by surface friction. After the onset of a downdraft in the model, these opposing tendencies soon reach a balance. Thus, following a brief transient stage, the model gust front exhibits a persistent configuration as it propagates rapidly forward. The essential features of this configuration are examined and compared with both tower observations of gust fronts and laboratory models of gravity currents.
Relationships between meso-beta scale systems and thunderstorm formation were examined as part of the NASA atmospheric variability experiment/severe environmental storms and mesoscale experiment 1979. The McIdas program was employed for meso-beta scale analyses of atmospheric structure and dynamics in kinematic computations of the Abilene Triangle on a grid mesh of 100 km for station spacing of 275 km. Mesoscale short wave systems were detected imbedded and propagating cyclonically around upper-level vortex circulation and creating environmental conditions conducive to thunderstorm development. TIROS-N and GOES satellite data served to connect the systems with two convective storms which developed. The necessity to use spaceborne instrumentation carried on the Shuttle or on free-flying satellites for enhancing the data-base on storm development is noted.
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Intercomparison of wind data from the airborne Doppler lidar, ground-based Doppler radars, the 444 m NSSL-KTVY tower, and rawinsonde were completed. The vertical profile of wind in the PBL measured by the radars compared favorably with the profiles measured by the tower and rawinsonde while the one obtained from lidar data differed from the other three by as much as 3m/sec in wind speed and 38 degrees in direction. The time dependence of differences in wind estimates from radar and lidar suggested that these discrepencies could be attributed to a Schuler resonance in the aircraft's inertial navigation system which caused an erroneous component of the aircraft's velocity vector to be subtracted from the lidar radial velocities, thus creating errors in the synthesized wind speed and direction. The vertical profile of turbulent fluctuations of the horizontal wind detected by the different systems compared well. Also, spectra from the different sensing systems compared well in both magnitude and shape, suggesting that the lidar and radar detected similar turbulent structure.
A new method for cloud tracking and observing storm development using satellite imagery in a cloud relative mode is presented. This method changes the analyst's function to one of monitoring cloud growth and changes over a finite time period and identifying portions of the cloud that are suitable for use as trackers. It is shown how many problems previously encountered by meteorologists in mesoscale cloud tracking can be overcome by using the cloud relative technique to determine mesoscale flow fields whose heights are determined using stereographic techniques. By separating growth and decay from cloud motion in a cumulus field using the method and accurately defining cloud heights, vertical wind shears within mesoscale domains may be defined. When this information is used to study the relative velocity of flows at different levels with respect to a developing or mature storm, improved insight into storm behavior can be achieved.
A procedure to identify thunderstorms from short-interval (5 min) GOES infrared (IR) data and to estimate their intensity (updraft strength) in an automated fashion is described. Thunderstorms are identified in the IR field by a simple pattern-recognition approach. For mature thunderstorms, two key parameters are used to estimate intensity: the amount of penetration above the neutral point and the occurrence (or not) of a cold-warm couplet in the IR TB field. Based on cloud model results, the amount of penetration is related to the maximum updraft speed, which is converted to an index. Application of the algorithm to a case study is presented.
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Numerous case studies and recent modeling studies have found that various metrics of updraft intensity appear to be reasonably well correlated to lightning production in thunderstorms, particularly severe thunderstorms. Indeed, the relationship between updraft and lightning flash rate is hypothesized to be the physical connection between a lightning "jump" signature and manifestations of severe weather such as tornadic activity. This study further examines this connection using a combination of dual Doppler wind retrievals made with the UAH ARMOR dual polarimetric and KHTX WSR 88D Doppler radar pair, together with northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) data. The dual Doppler data were used to construct three dimensional wind fields and the retrieved vertical velocity fields were subsequently compared to collocated total lightning flash rates observed by the LMA. Particular attention was paid to the timing of updraft pulses relative to changes in the flash rate, with the goal of assessing impacts on warning decision lead time. Results from the analysis of severe and non severe thunderstorms in Northern Alabama will be presented including the EF 4 tornado producing supercell on 6 February 2008.
In the present exploration of the effectiveness of severe thunderstorm detection in the Midwestern region of the U.S. by means of approximately 5-min interval geosynchronous satellite data, thunderstorms are defined in IR data as points of relative minimum in brightness temperature T(B) having good time continuity and exhibiting a period of rapid growth. The four parameters of rate of T(B) decrease in the upper troposphere and stratosphere, isotherm expansion, and storm lifetime minimum T(B), are shown to be statistically related to the occurrence of severe weather on four case study days and are combined into a Thunderstorm Index which varies among values from 1 to 9. Storms rating higher than 6 have a much higher probability of severe weather reports, yielding a warning time lead of 15 min for hail and 30 min for the first tornado report.
Thunderstorms are high impact weather phenomena. They also pose an extremely challenging forecast problem. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA), and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), have decided to pool technology and scientific expertise into an unprecedented effort to better observe, diagnose, and forecast thunderstorms. This paper describes plans for an operational field test called the THunderstorm Operational Research (THOR) Project beginning in 2002, the primary goals of which are to: 1) Reduce the number of Thunderstorm-related Air Traffic Delays with in the National Airspace System (NAS) and, 2) Improve severe thunderstorm, tornado and airport thunderstorm warning accuracy and lead time. Aviation field operations will be focused on the prime air traffic bottleneck in the NAS, the airspace bounded roughly by Chicago, New York City and Washington D.C., sometimes called the Northeast Corridor. A variety of new automated thunderstorm forecasting applications will be tested here that, when implemented into FAA-NWS operations, will allow for better tactical decision making and NAS management during thunderstorm days. Severe thunderstorm operations will be centered on Northern Alabama. NWS meteorologists from the forecast office in Birmingham will test the utility of experimental lightning, radar, and profiler data from a mesoscale observing network being established by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. In addition, new tornado detection and thunderstorm nowcasting algorithms will be examined for their potential for improving warning accuracy. The Alabama THOR site will also serve as a test bed for new gridded, digital thunderstorm and flash flood warning products.
This paper presents a computerized technique for medium-range (12-48h) prediction of both the location and severity of thunderstorms utilizing atmospheric predictions from the National Meteorological Center's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM). A regional-scale analysis scheme is first used to examine the spatial and temporal distributions of forecasted variables associated with the structure and dynamics of mesoscale systems over an area of approximately 10 to the 6th sq km. The final prediction of thunderstorm location and severity is based upon an objective combination of these regionally analyzed variables. Medium-range thunderstorm predictions are presented for the late afternoon period of April 10, 1979, the day of the Wichita Falls, Texas tornado. Conventional medium-range thunderstorm forecasts, made from observed data, are presented with the case study to demonstrate the possible application of this objective technique in improving 12-48 h thunderstorm forecasts for aviation.