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DOE OSTI2025

A quantitative risk assessment framework for fault reactivation in underground hydrogen storage: Coupled simulation and deep learning approach

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is emerging as a critical solution for large-scale energy storage. However, like all subsurface fluid injection activities, UHS poses the risk of injection-induced fault reactivation. Accurate risk assessment is essential to ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS operations. This study presents the development of deep-learning surrogate models for fault reactivation prediction in UHS, trained on a comprehensive database of fully coupled fluid flow-geomechanics simulations. Our findings reveal that analytical models often yield unreliable estimates, with errors up to 54% in the allowable injection pressure, potentially leading to a 40% reduction in UHS operational capacity. The developed surrogate models were incorporated into a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework, enabling probabilistic evaluation of fault reactivation risk while accounting for uncertainties in the input variables. Site-specific features, such as horizontal stress gradients, fault’s dip and strike angles, and operational parameters like bottom-hole injection pressure and well-fault distance, were identified as the primary drivers of fault reactivation across various stress regimes. Whereas other hydraulic, geological, and poroelastic reservoir properties were found to have a secondary impact. Notably, we observed that the risk of fault reactivation for a critically oriented fault with a static friction coefficient greater than 0.55 remains below 10% in a normal faulting stress regime. However, the risk significantly increases as the stress regime transitions from normal to strike-slip and ultimately to reverse faulting conditions. These findings underscore the importance of rigorous site characterization and comprehensive QRA evaluations to optimize UHS performance and minimize geomechanical risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Distinguishing photo-induced oxygen attack on alkyl chain versus conjugated backbone for alkylthienyl-benzodithiophene (BDTT)-based push–pull polymers

Synthetic design has enabled increasing power conversion efficiency advances in organic photovoltaics (OPV). One continuing knowledge gap is detailed understanding of single-material chemical (photo)stability. Many considerations are based on prior OPV-relevant donor homopolymer systems rather than the next-generation push–pull architectures. Generally, energetic offsets between the lowest occupied molecular orbital of the donor and molecular oxygen are assumed to dictate kinetics of photo-induced charge transfer to a super oxide radical. Herein we determine the ambient-induced photo-degradation pathways, presented as proposed site-specific arrow-pushing mechanisms, for five donor polymers all containing the same push unit – alkylthienyl-substituted-benzodithiophene (BDTT) – but with chemically distinct pull units. The donor-only polymer films were subject to controlled photobleaching in air as an accelerated degradation approach, coupled with simultaneous monitoring of absorptance. Sample subsets were periodically removed and analyzed with X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, to evaluate near-surface chemical composition and oxygen additions to hetero reporter atoms on either the BDTT push unit or distinct pull unit (i.e., sulphur and nitrogen). Here, this methodology allows us to distinguish between different mechanisms of bond cleavage and formation. Overall, we find that neither polymer redox properties nor individual push or pull unit stability are sufficient to predict photo-oxidative degradation of these polymers. Rather, there is a greater dependence on the susceptibility of unique structural groups within a polymeric system. Alkyl chain oxygen addition is generally the first attack site and direct sulfur oxidation on the conjugated backbone occurs after saturation of the alkyl chain initiation sites. This work provides a standard that could be used to evaluate relative photo-oxidative (in)stability for new OPV materials quickly – prior to time-consuming device optimization – and demonstrates an effective methodology for correlating optical degradation with chemical structure alterations via spectroscopic signatures to guide synthetic design.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of In-Situ AM Process Monitoring Techniques and Potential for Detecting Process Anomalies and Undesirable Microstructures

The US Department of Energy’s Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program is pursuing rapid qualification of new materials for fabrication of nuclear relevant components using advanced manufacturing techniques. Particular interest is placed on code-qualifying stainless steel (SS) 316H processed by laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing. A paradigm that incorporates data from in-situ sensing during the printing, ex-situ characterization, and advanced artificial intelligence–based models was established under the Transformation Challenge Reactor (TCR) program to develop a pedigree for each fabricated component that could be tracked from the feedstock to the component’s release for application. Under the TCR program, the Peregrine software was developed as a tool for incorporating the vast amounts of in-situ and ex-situ characterization data collected; all data stored on a rapidly growing digital platform. The digital platform allows for users to link site-specific process anomalies to the macro- and microstructure. The platform will eventually be able to predict component performance, which will be crucial to qualifying materials and components in risk-averse industries such as those supporting and building nuclear reactors. Current in-situ process monitoring techniques that are already integrated with software like Peregrine are advantageous for identifying process anomalies including powder spatter, component edge swelling, recoating-build interactions, and so on. However, additional data are required to fully predict the resulting microstructures needed for identifying relationships to component performance. The rapid cooling rates observed in LPBF are some of the highest of any bulk manufacturing process, resulting in heterogenous microstructures and typically causing anisotropy in mechanical properties. Moreover, evolved residual thermal stresses are high, which can cause severe defects such as delamination or cracking. Therefore, other in-situ monitoring methods are warranted for exploration to measure and map the thermal history, and potentially the stress state, of each build. This report summarizes different in-situ monitoring strategies proposed for LPBF with a focus on the more developed sensor systems. Novel capabilities for measuring melt pool temperatures are also addressed to better inform modeling efforts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Solar Neutrino Detection with a Pixelated Liquid-Argon Time Projection Chamber

This thesis presents a study of low-energy solar neutrino detection using large-scale LArTPCs, focussing on novel pixelated readout technologies. Solar neutrinos offer a unique probe of fundamental neutrino properties and solar physics, but their detection in the MeV range is challenged by backgrounds. We investigate two complementary technologies: SoLAr, which integrates LArPix-based pixelated charge collection with Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPMs) in a hybrid anode design for simultaneous charge and light detection; and Q-Pix, a triggerless pixelated readout architecture based on charge integrate-reset circuits with local clocks, where Reset Time Differences encode ionisation waveforms via time-to-charge conversion. Two SoLAr prototypes were developed and operated, demonstrating VUV-sensitive SiPM performance in liquid argon and accurate charge-light signal matching with a charge detection threshold of $\sim 100 \mathrm{keV}$. We also implement a complete simulation and reconstruction framework, incorporating realistic detector geometry, electron transport, readout response, and detailed signal and background models, including intrinsic argon and radon progeny, as well as site-specific $\gamma$-ray and neutron fluxes. For Q-Pix, we demonstrate that with a pixel size of $4\times 4$ mm$^2$ and a reset threshold of 1 fC ($\sim 0.1475$ MeV), full-scale operation produces data volumes below 1 PB per 10 ktonne-year. For SoLAr, assuming a shielded DUNE-like detector and 100 ktonne-year exposure, we project uncertainties of $0.90\times 10^{-5}$ eV$^2$ on $\Delta m^2_{21}$ and 0.033 on $\sin^2\theta_{12}$, improving to $0.46\times 10^{-5}$ eV$^2$ and 0.025 with 400 kilotonne-year. At this higher exposure, we also obtain a day–night flux asymmetry at the level of $( -5.6 \pm 3.6 ) \%$. Combining Monte Carlo modelling, hardware validation, and advanced reconstruction techniques, this work establishes a path toward next-generation ktonne-scale LArTPCs as observatories for precision solar neutrino physics.

Ruiz Ferreira, Guilherme [Manchester U.] (ORCID:00↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the bond strength and fracture mechanisms of cold-sprayed zinc coating on AZ91 magnesium substrate via a combined experimental and computational approach

Magnesium (Mg) alloys are ideal candidates for automotive applications due to their high strength to weight ratio, castability, recyclability etc., however, they lack corrosion and oxidation resistance. Solid-state deposition techniques, such as cold spray, have been demonstrated to enhance their corrosion resistance as it relies on the severe plastic deformation of powder particles upon impact with the substrate to form a metallurgical bond with the substrate and within the coating. At cold sprayed interfaces, a heterogeneous microstructure is formed that includes some porosity, oxides and intermetallics which can significantly affect coating performance. Thus, establishing a direct correlation between the interface microstructure and its properties can aid in designing optimal cold spray parameters. In this study, we investigated the microstructure and mechanical properties of a zinc (Zn) coating deposited on a high pressure die cast (HPDC) AZ91 Mg substrate via high resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy, in situ micro-tensile testing, and finite element method (FEM) modeling. Micro-tensile pillars fabricated using the plasma focused ion beam (PFIB) successfully isolates the coating-substrate interface within the gauge length. The average bond strength of Zn-Mg interface was determined to be ∼140 MPa with failure occurring partially at the interface and mostly into the coatings. A detailed microstructural characterization revealed evidence of a strong metallurgical bonding at the Zn-Mg interface and formation of the C14 MgZn 2 laves phase interlayer resulting in a mixed mode of fracture during the micro-tensile experiments. FEM modeling reveals the stress distribution along the interfaces and suggests that a MgZn 2 layer thickness between 200–400 nm is optimum to increase the bond strength and minimize the triaxiality. Such a site-specific interfacial analysis with correlative computational modeling provides crucial insight into the overall performance of cold spray interfaces.

Bond strength↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hazards and Probabilistic Risk Assessments of a Light-Water Reactor Coupled with Industrial Facilities

This report provides a roadmap and toolkit for site-specific risk assessments across a broad range of industrial customers co-located with nuclear power plants (NPPs). This report builds upon the body of work sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) Light-Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Flexible Plant Operation and Generation Pathway that presented hazards assessment and generic probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) for the addition of a heat extraction system (HES) to light-water reactors co-located with hydrogen production facilities. The report expands the hazards assessments to include other industrial facilities: an oil refinery, a methanol plant, a synthetic fuel (synfuel) plant, the production of synthetic gas (syngas) as part of the methanol and synfuel plants, and wood pulp and paper mills. All these facilities are specified through industrial process and requirements research performed by national laboratories, universities, and interaction with industry. Many of the processes used in this report are pre-conceptual designs to use for decarbonization of the current technology facilities. A process of failure modes and effects analysis (what can go wrong) and accidentology (what has historically gone wrong) was used to determine the hazards presented to the NPP by the addition of the HES and the industrial customer. Chemical properties of feedstocks and products are summarized as part of the hazards assessment. Example analysis procedures are provided for each of the hazard types identified. These deterministic analyses can be used to assess adherence to licensing criteria. They can also be used to meet other safety goals like protection of the public, workers, or industrial facility equipment. The probabilistic analysis consisted of three sizes of HESs modeled in a PRA to assess the impact on the initiating events (IE) and results of the PRA. The PRA results conclude that the resulting increases in IE frequencies are below the limits required for small changes to existing NPPs under 10 CFR 50.59.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deconstructing Chirality: Probing Local and Nonlocal Effects in Azobenzene Derivatives with X-ray Circular Dichroism

Resolving molecular chirality on the atomic scale remains a critical challenge in chemistry. Conventional Optical Circular Dichroism spectroscopy often overlooks subtle and localized structural features. Here, we computationally investigate site-specific X-ray circular dichroism (XCD) across a series of trans-azobenzene derivatives to deconstruct and interpret chiroptical signals at the atomic level. Our modeling reveals that XCD is capable of distinguishing dichroic contributions arising from both a local chiral center and a global molecular twist, revealing their intricate interplay and potential for constructive or destructive interference. We show that sterically induced global distortions can dominate the XCD signal in some cases, even suppressing the response from the chiral center itself. This insight suggests a new molecular design principle for tuning the chiroptical activity, which we extend by proposing strategies to achieve unidirectional photoisomerization through steric gearing. Altogether, this work establishes a quantitative framework for engineering chiroptical responses, laying the foundation for the design of functional chiral systems utilizing principles of unidirectional molecular motor-like conformational dynamics.

X-ray spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tailored Additive Design of Scaffold‐Free Porous Mg for Ultimate Hydrogen Storage

For hydrogen storage materials to become practically viable, comprehensive improvements in key properties—kinetics, thermodynamics, thermal transport, and durability—are crucial. Porous Mg structure has been proposed as a promising strategy due to its high storage capacity and ability to accommodate volume expansion. However, challenges such as sluggish kinetics and structural degradation resulting from instability due to vacant sites still remain. In this study, a tailored design of porous Mg structure with site-specific transition metal dual-doping and structure-reinforced carbon nanotube (CNT)-framework is presented for optimal hydrogen storage. Ti and Ni are strategically deposited on the surface to synergistically enhance hydrogen sorption kinetics by facilitating hydrogen dissociation and diffusion, while CNTs are interpenetrated into 3D Mg structure for improving thermal conductivity and maintaining the porous structure. The resulting composite demonstrates exceptional performance, achieving hydrogen absorption and desorption of 4.8 and 5.8 wt%, respectively, within 10 min with an impressively low activation energy for absorption of 46 kJ mol −1 H 2 . Even after 50 cycles, its capacity and porous structure are well preserved, showing excellent cyclability in comparison with previously reported materials. In conclusion, this delicate design strategy based on a comprehensive understanding of structural and chemical characteristics is key to maximizing the targeted performance.

CNT embedding↗

DOE OSTI2026

Elastic-wave sensitivity-guided adaptive seismic survey design for cost-effective monitoring of geological carbon storage

Effective seismic monitoring is essential for verifying CO₂ containment, detecting potential leakage, and optimizing operational decisions in geologic carbon storage. Here, this study presents a time-adaptive, elastic-wave sensitivity-guided framework for designing cost-effective seismic monitoring layouts for tracking CO₂ plume migration. The method is based on elastic-wave sensitivity analysis, which quantifies how variations in subsurface properties impact seismic wavefields. Two complementary design strategies are developed: one based on selecting a fixed number of seismic sources (Method A), and the other based on selecting source–receiver pairs contributing to a fixed fraction of cumulative elastic-wave sensitivity energy (Method B). The optimization workflow to identify source–receiver configurations with the highest detection potential is demonstrated using a hypothetical GCS scenario at the Kimberlina site in California using simulations of elastic-wave sensitivity data at multiple post-injection timesteps. Results show that both strategies adapt to evolving plume geometries and wavefield sensitivities, with Method B offering broader spatial coverage and Method A ensuring simpler deployment. This framework enables site-specific, cost-effective, and risk-informed seismic survey designs, enhancing the ability to monitor CO₂ migration over time in evolving geological environments

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Photon counting with intensified charge coupled device (ICCD) – I. In-depth detector characterization

While the adsorption properties of transition metal catalysts have been widely studied, leading to the discovery of various scaling relations, descriptors of catalytic activity, and well-established computational models, a similar understanding of semiconductor catalysts has not yet been achieved. In this work, we present a high-throughput density functional theory investigation into the adsorption properties of 5 oxides of interest to the photocatalytic CO 2 reduction reaction: TiO 2 (rutile and anatase), SrTiO 3 , NaTaO 3 , and CeO 2 . Using a systematic approach, we exhaustively identify unique surfaces and construct adsorption structures to undergo geometry optimizations. We then perform a data-driven analysis, which reveals the presence of weak adsorption energy scaling relations, the propensity of adsorbates of interest to interact with oxygen surface sites, and the importance of slab deformation upon adsorption. Our findings are presented in the context of experimental observations and in comparison to previously studied classes of catalysts, such as pure metals and tellurium-containing semiconductors, and reinforce the need for a comprehensive approach to the study of site-specific surface phenomena on semiconductors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Systematic computational study of oxide adsorption properties for applications in photocatalytic CO 2 reduction

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probing Interactions between Adsorbed Polymers and γ-Al 2 O 3 Using Solid-State NMR

The interactions between polymers and metal oxide surfaces affect the physical properties of polymer composites and the selectivity of catalysts used for plastic conversion. Gauging the strengths of these interactions and how they depend on adsorption conformations and polymer structure is nevertheless quite challenging. Herein, we evaluate whether a recently introduced dynamic nuclear polarization-based surface-to-atom distance measurement method can be used to gauge the specific interactions between five vinyl polymers and an oxide support (alumina). The adsorption conformations of polymer monolayers were studied using site-specific 13 C{ 27 Al} rotational-echo saturation-pulse double-resonance (RESPDOR) experiments. The method is effective in revealing the average distance between the adsorbed polymer and the surface, as well as the fraction of the monomers that are adsorbed. Polymers that possess larger side chains are more weakly adsorbed, as evidenced by their formation of more numerous loop and tail structures. In conclusion, the measured RESPDOR dephasing data further reveals that polymer adsorption conformations are largely disordered and involve few hydrogen bonding interactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Recent Developments in Revealing the Impact of Complex Metal Oxide Reconstruction on Catalysis

Surface reconstruction of complex metal oxides refers to the alterations of the topmost catalyst surface, relative to the bulk structure, following exposure to pretreatment or reaction conditions during heterogeneous catalysis. (1) This structural and electronic transformation may involve (1) changes of the exposed crystallographic facets, (2) changes in chemical composition, such as the enrichment of specific elements, and, (3) morphological variations, including surface roughness and defects (Scheme 1). Beyond relaxation, surface reconstruction here also encompasses disruptions to the periodicity of the sublayers and changes to its stoichiometry. This change significantly influences the chemical properties of the catalyst surface, such as redox sites, (2) acid/base pairs, hydroxyl groups, (3) and surface defects. Surface reconstruction occurs due to the thermodynamic drive to lower the surface energy of the catalyst under the surrounding environment (e.g., temperature, chemical potential of species present). In addition to the treatment or reaction conditions, the extent of reconstruction also depends on the elements in the metal oxide structure. For instance, annealing ABO 3 perovskites (SrTiO 3 , BaTiO 3 , and BaZrO 3 ) at high temperatures (500 °C) in O 2 has a very different impact on the A/B ratio at the surface (ranging from 0.9 to 2.5), depending on the identity of A and B. (4) Metal oxide surface reconstruction under an electric field and exposure to acidic and alkaline media has recently gained increased attention in electrocatalysis, such as in the oxygen evolution reaction (OER); (5,6) however, in this Viewpoint we focus on the impact of surface reconstruction on thermal catalysis, a critical enduring research theme with ongoing challenges. Here, we start showcasing approaches to characterize surface reconstruction at the topmost surface layer, such as low-energy ion scattering (LEIS), discussing advantages and limitations. Next, we connect characterization of surface reconstruction to site-specific kinetic analysis, enabled via steady-state isotopic transient kinetic analysis (SSITKA), and we express our viewpoint on building structure–performance relationships by deeply understanding reconstructed surfaces. Later, we comment on the potential of tuning surface reconstruction to enhance catalytic performance. Finally, we explore the interplay between surface reconstruction and the “intelligent behavior”.

alcohol conversion↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic control and quantification of active sites on ceria for CO activation and hydrogenation

Ceria (CeO 2 ) is a widely used oxide catalyst, yet the nature of its active sites remains elusive. This study combines model and powder catalyst studies to elucidate the structure-activity relationships in ceria-catalyzed CO activation and hydrogenation. Well-defined ceria clusters are synthesized on planar CeO 2 (111) and exhibit dynamic and tunable ranges of Ce coordination numbers, which enhance their interaction with CO. Reduced ceria clusters (e.g., Ce 3 O 3 ) bind CO strongly and facilitate its dissociation, while near-stoichiometric clusters (e.g., Ce 3 O 7 ) adsorb CO weakly and promote oxidation via carbonate formation. Unlike planar ceria surfaces, supported ceria clusters exhibit dynamic properties and enhanced catalytic activity, that mimic those of powder ceria catalysts. Insight from model studies provide a method to quantify active sites on powder ceria and guide further optimization of ceria catalysts for syngas conversion. This work marks a leap toward model-guided catalyst design and highlights the importance of site-specific catalysis.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Site-specific photo-crosslinking in a double crossover DNA tile facilitated by squaraine dye aggregates: advancing thermally stable and uniform DNA nanostructures

We investigated the role of dichloro-squaraine (SQ) dye aggregates in facilitating thymine–thymine interstrand photo-crosslinking within double crossover (DX) tiles, to develop thermally stable and structurally uniform two-dimensional (2D) DNA-based nanostructures. By strategically incorporating SQ modified thymine pairs, we enabled site-selective [2 + 2] photocycloaddition under 310 nm UV light. Strong dye–dye interactions, particularly through the formation of aggregates, facilitated covalent bond formation between proximal thymines. To evaluate the impact of dye aggregation on crosslinking efficiency, ten DX tile variants with varying SQ-modified thymine positions were tested. Our results demonstrated that SQ dye aggregates significantly enhanced crosslinking, driven by precise SQ-modified thymine dimer placement within the DNA tiles. Analytical techniques, including denaturing PAGE and UV-visible spectroscopy, validated successful crosslinking in DNA tiles with multiple SQ-modified thymine pairs. This non-phototoxic method offers a potential route for creating thermally stable, homogeneous higher-order DNA–dye assemblies with potential applications in photoactive and exciton-based fields such as optoelectronics, nanoscale computing, and quantum computing. Furthermore, the insights from this study establish a foundation for further exploration of advanced DNA–dye systems, enabling the design of next-generation DNA nanostructures with enhanced functional properties.

2D DNA template↗

DOE OSTI2024

Engineered mRNA–ribosome fusions for facile biosynthesis of selenoproteins

Ribosomes are often used in synthetic biology as a tool to produce desired proteins with enhanced properties or entirely new functions. However, repurposing ribosomes for producing designer proteins is challenging due to the limited number of engineering solutions available to alter the natural activity of these enzymes. In this study, we advance ribosome engineering by describing a novel strategy based on functional fusions of ribosomal RNA (rRNA) with messenger RNA (mRNA). Specifically, we create an mRNA–ribosome fusion called RiboU, where the 16S rRNA is covalently attached to selenocysteine insertion sequence (SECIS), a regulatory RNA element found in mRNAs encoding selenoproteins. When SECIS sequences are present in natural mRNAs, they instruct ribosomes to decode UGA codons as selenocysteine (Sec, U) codons instead of interpreting them as stop codons. This enables ribosomes to insert Sec into the growing polypeptide chain at the appropriate site. Our work demonstrates that the SECIS sequence maintains its functionality even when inserted into the ribosome structure. As a result, the engineered ribosomes RiboU interpret UAG codons as Sec codons, allowing easy and site-specific insertion of Sec in a protein of interest with no further modification to the natural machinery of protein synthesis. To validate this approach, we use RiboU ribosomes to produce three functional target selenoproteins in Escherichia coli by site-specifically inserting Sec into the proteins’ active sites. Overall, our work demonstrates the feasibility of creating functional mRNA–rRNA fusions as a strategy for ribosome engineering, providing a novel tool for producing Sec-containing proteins in live bacterial cells.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Artificial Replication of Field Soiling Losses on PV Modules

In this paper, we experimentally demonstrate an improved replication of field soiling losses using an indoor artificial soiling chamber and tests on anti-soiling coated PV modules and coupons. The primary focus is to use site-specific soil collected from module surface and replicate the natural soiling processes including dust concentration in the air, slow and gradual dust accumulation and sedimentation on the module surface during the dominant soiling season of the site of interest. The experiments were conducted on two sample sets having different anti-soiling properties. The first set contains commercial modules with two different surface properties retrieved after three years of exposure from a single PV plant in a mid-Atlantic location; the other set contain glass coupons with three different coating materials that were installed and exposed over 4 months, at Lemoore, California. Major field-representative factors considered here for the close replication in the chamber include: the use of dust collected from modules surfaces at the outdoor sites to give the same dust chemistry; dust particle size distribution and concentration; the charge size of dust (< 0.15 g per injection); field humidity, and module temperature. The effectiveness of antisoiling coatings (or surface properties) for both sample sets were ranked in the artificial testing and were found to be closely matching with the field rank orders of the respective sites and sample sets. This paper provides the rank ordering results to objectively demonstrate the replication of field soiling losses in the artificial soiling chamber.

artificial soiling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ground-motions site and event specificity: Insights from assessing a suite of simulated ground motions in the San Francisco Bay Area

This article presents the results of a research that is part of a larger collaborative effort between the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, funded by the US Department of Energy Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security and Emergency Response. The main objective of this study is to assess a suite of near and far-field simulated ground motions obtained from 20 realizations of an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area, California USA, and inform the selection of rupture simulation parameters leading to strong motions. To this aim, comparisons are conducted with NGA-W2 and directivity ground-motion models and a selected population of records. An archetypal steel moment-resisting frame is utilized to assess infrastructure response distributions. The analyses carried out for each simulated event and subdomain with consistent properties in terms of shallow shear-wave velocity proved to be instrumental for better interpreting the differences between simulated motions and empirical models. The main reasons identified for variances between simulations and empirical relationships included (1) directivity effects fully captured by the simulations across the full breadth of rupture models; (2) site vicinity to ruptures that incorporate large-slip patches, particularly if these are in the forward-directivity direction; and (3) presence of geologic structures that can “trap” seismic waves and produce ground motions with large amplitude and long signal duration. The analyses carried out in this work provide a path for interpreting ground-motion site and event specificity obtained from a suite of physics-based simulations, differing only in the rupture model characterization, to inform the selection of simulation scenarios for site-specific engineering analyses under strong excitations. Evidence from this work points to the possibility that current hazard models may underestimate ground-motion intensities in areas where the combined effect of directivity and site conditions results in large ground-motion amplitudes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗