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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images: Preprint

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗
DOE OSTI2021

First Simultaneous Observation of STEVE and SAR Arc Combining Data From Citizen Scientists, 630.0 nm All‐Sky Images, and Satellites

Abstract On September 28, 2017 citizen scientist observations at Alberta, Canada (51°N, 113° W) detected aurora and a thin east‐west purplish arc, known as strong thermal emission velocity enhancement (STEVE) that lasted less than 20 min. All‐sky imagers at subauroral latitudes measured stable auroral red (SAR) arcs during the entire night. The imager at Bridger, MT (45.3°N, 108.9°W) also measured a STEVE. The overlapping geometry allowed to determine that the height of STEVE was 225–275 km. STEVE is brighter in the 630.0 nm images in the West and almost merges with the SAR arc in the East. A DMSP satellite pass in the southern hemisphere was at the conjugate location of the Bridger imager during the STEVE observation. When mapped into the northern hemisphere intense subauroral ion drift and subauroral polarization streams were detected associated with the two optical signatures measured in 630.0 nm.

Martinis, C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solar Transposition Modeling via Deep Neural Networks With Sky Images

This article presents a notable advance toward the development of a new method of increasing the single-axis tracking photovoltaic (PV) system power output by improving the determination and near-term prediction of the optimum module tilt angle. The tilt angle of the plane receiving the greatest total irradiance changes with Sun position and atmospheric conditions including cloud formation and movement, aerosols, and particulate loading, as well as varying albedo within a module's field of view. In this article, we present a multi-input convolutional neural network that can create a profile of plane-of-array irradiance versus surface tilt angle over a full 180° arc from horizon to horizon. As input, the neural network uses the calculated solar position and clear-sky irradiance values, along with sky images. The target irradiance values are provided by the multiplanar irradiance sensor (MPIS). In order to account for varying irradiance conditions, the MPIS signal is normalized by the theoretical clear-sky global horizontal irradiance. Using this information, the neural network outputs an N -dimensional vector, where N is the number of points to approximate the MPIS curve via Fourier resampling. The output vector of the model is smoothed with a Gaussian kernel to account for error in the downsamping and subsequent upsampling steps, as well as to smooth the unconstrained output of the model. Furthermore, these profiles may be used to perform near-term prediction of angular irradiance, which can then inform the movement of a PV tracker.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2012

Cloud Screening and Quality Control Algorithm for Star Photometer Data: Assessment with Lidar Measurements and with All-sky Images

This paper presents the development and set up of a cloud screening and data quality control algorithm for a star photometer based on CCD camera as detector. These algorithms are necessary for passive remote sensing techniques to retrieve the columnar aerosol optical depth, delta Ae(lambda), and precipitable water vapor content, W, at nighttime. This cloud screening procedure consists of calculating moving averages of delta Ae() and W under different time-windows combined with a procedure for detecting outliers. Additionally, to avoid undesirable Ae(lambda) and W fluctuations caused by the atmospheric turbulence, the data are averaged on 30 min. The algorithm is applied to the star photometer deployed in the city of Granada (37.16 N, 3.60 W, 680 ma.s.l.; South-East of Spain) for the measurements acquired between March 2007 and September 2009. The algorithm is evaluated with correlative measurements registered by a lidar system and also with all-sky images obtained at the sunset and sunrise of the previous and following days. Promising results are obtained detecting cloud-affected data. Additionally, the cloud screening algorithm has been evaluated under different aerosol conditions including Saharan dust intrusion, biomass burning and pollution events.

data quality control algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Solar and Load Forecasting Incorporating HD Sky Imaging (Phase III)

Due to rapidly changing sky conditions, the available solar irradiance for energy generation is subject to wide swings in amplitude. As the market penetration of solar energy continues to increase rapidly, these variations in solar power generation are beginning to have an impact on grid stability and increased wear on power switches. Solar power forecasting plays a critical role in operations for Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utilities. Accurate forecasts help maintain grid reliability, optimize generation from renewables, and reduce operating costs. Of particular interest to the ISOs and utilities are sudden changes in solar irradiance, termed “ramp events,” due to the movement of clouds. One significant impact of ramp events on the grid is additional ancillary service requirements necessary to manage such variability. Ramp events can also cause voltage fluctuations in the distribution grids and trigger actions of automated line equipment (e.g., tap changers), leading to additional maintenance costs. In high penetration solar regions, forecasts must be made for both transmission-connected and distribution-connected resources – either behind the meter or in front of it. Particularly for distributed solar energy resources, forecasting can be a challenge due to the lack of visibility of the energy resource. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has been working towards nowcasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) using low-cost technologies for several years now. The Solar NowCasting technology being developed by BNL is a 0 – 30 min solar “nowcasting” technology applicable to a scale covering both large generating facilities and residential, distributed solar installations that relies on a network of ground-based high-definition (HD) cameras and surface pyranometers. GHI forecasts are being produced for both regions using 8 ground-based HD cameras and at least 2 surface pyranometers. When stitched together, the camera images can be used to forecast the impact of clouds on available solar irradiance over a domain of ~50 km 2 . Phase I of the project was the engineering scale up conceptual design stage. Phase II was the initial field test and demonstration, in which the technology was scaled up by a factor of 20 times and successfully demonstrated in eastern Long Island. In Phase III, an additional forecasting network was added in upstate NY and both networks are currently being operated until at least a full year of data is gathered by the Albany network to allow for the collection of sufficient data to evaluate performance against the persistence and smart persistence models using the Solar Arbiter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1997

Alaskan Auroral All-Sky Images on the World Wide Web

In response to a 1995 NASA SPDS announcement of support for preservation and distribution of important data sets online, the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska, proposed to provide World Wide Web access to the Poker Flat Auroral All-sky Camera images in real time. The Poker auroral all-sky camera is located in the Davis Science Operation Center at Poker Flat Rocket Range about 30 miles north-east of Fairbanks, Alaska, and is connected, through a microwave link, with the Geophysical Institute where we maintain the data base linked to the Web. To protect the low light-level all-sky TV camera from damage due to excessive light, we only operate during the winter season when the moon is down. The camera and data acquisition is now fully computer controlled. Digital images are transmitted each minute to the Web linked data base where the data are available in a number of different presentations: (1) Individual JPEG compressed images (1 minute resolution); (2) Time lapse MPEG movie of the stored images; and (3) A meridional plot of the entire night activity.

Stenbaek-Nielsen, H. C.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Full-Sky Imaging at Low Frequencies

Exploring the frequency range from a few tens of MHZ down to a few tens of kHz commonly requires multiple antennas operating as an aperture synthesis interferometer to obtain angular resolution. This design must overcome the corrupting effects of interplanetary scintillation, interfering signals and nearly isotropic antennas that see strong sources such as the Sun and Jupiter at all times.

Jones, D. L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Self-supervised Representation Learning for Astronomical Images

Sky surveys are the largest data generators in astronomy, making automated tools for extracting meaningful scientific information an absolute necessity. We show that, without the need for labels, self-supervised learning recovers representations of sky survey images that are semantically useful for a variety of scientific tasks. These representations can be directly used as features, or fine-tuned, to outperform supervised methods trained only on labeled data. We apply a contrastive learning framework on multiband galaxy photometry from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), to learn image representations. We then use them for galaxy morphology classification and fine-tune them for photometric redshift estimation, using labels from the Galaxy Zoo 2 data set and SDSS spectroscopy. In both downstream tasks, using the same learned representations, we outperform the supervised state-of-the-art results, and we show that our approach can achieve the accuracy of supervised models while using 2-4 times fewer labels for training. The codes, trained models, and data can be found at https://portal.nersc.gov/project/dasrepo/self-supervised-learning-sdss.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data associated with the manuscript “Radiative impact of record-breaking wildfires from integrated ground-based data” collected in Richland, Washington in September 2020

This data package is associated with the publication “Radiative impact of record-breaking wildfires from integrated ground-based data” submitted to Nature Scientific Reports (Kassianov et al., 2024). Data from ground-based measurements of shortwave and spectrally resolved irradiance and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the visible and near-infrared spectral ranges were assessed to quantify the radiative impact of the September 2020 wildfires that occurred in the Western United States. Data were collected in September 2020 by several ground-based instruments at the Atmospheric Measurements Laboratory (AML) located in Richland, Washington (46.3451, -119.2792). These data include (1) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD); (2) spectrally resolved and shortwave (SW) irradiances; (3) backscatter profiles; (4) total sky images; and (5) near-surface ambient air temperatures.The data package consists of five sub-directories: (1) “AML_Ceilometer_”; (2)” AML_CSPHOT_”; (3) “AML_MFRSR_irradiances_”; (4) “AML_SW_irradiances_and_Temp_”; (5) “AML_TSI_images_”; and 6 files stored at the directory level, including the readme, file-level metadata file, and data dictionary. The file-level metadata file (the file ending in “_flmd.csv”) lists all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The data dictionary (the file ending in “_dd.csv”) describes each tabular column header’s unit, definition, and structure. Below are descriptions of each sub-directory:“AML_Ceilometer_” includes ceilometer data collected at the AML. These files contain the corresponding narratives of data. Details related to the ceilometer data can be found in Morris (2016). “AML_CSPHOT_” includes ascii files with high-temporal resolution (about 10-15 min) AML CSPHOT data and their daily-averaged counterparts. These two files contain the corresponding narratives of data. Details related to the CSPHOT data can be found in Gregory (2011). “AML_MFRSR_irradiances_” includes ascii files with the AML MFRSR-measured diffuse, normal, and total spectrally resolved irradiance. Details related to the MFRSR data can be found in Hodges and Michalsky (2016) and Koontz et al. (2013). “AML_SW_irradiances_+_Temp_” includes near-surface ambient air temperature and SW irradiances, namely direct normal, diffuse hemispherical, and total hemispheric (global), measured at the AML. These files also incorporate the corresponding narratives of data. Details related to the SW irradiances can be found in Andreas et al. (2018). “AML_TSI_images_” includes Total Sky Images (TSIs) collected at the AML. Details related to the TSI data can be found in Morris (2005).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗