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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Solar Irradiance Ramp Forecasting Based on All-Sky Imagers

Solar forecasting constitutes a critical tool for operating, producing and storing generated power from solar farms. In the framework of the International Energy Agency’s Photovoltaic Power Systems Program Task 16, the solar irradiance nowcast algorithms, based on five all-sky imagers (ASIs), are used to investigate the feasibility of ASIs to foresee ramp events. ASIs 1–2 and ASIs 3–5 can capture the true ramp events by 26.0–51.0% and 49.0–92.0% of the cases, respectively. ASIs 1–2 provided the lowest (<10.0%) falsely documented ramp events while ASIs 3–5 recorded false ramp events up to 85.0%. On the other hand, ASIs 3–5 revealed the lowest falsely documented no ramp events (8.0–51.0%). ASIs 1–2 are developed to provide spatial solar irradiance forecasts and have been delimited only to a small area for the purposes of this benchmark, which penalizes these approaches. These findings show that ASI-based nowcasts could be considered as a valuable tool for predicting solar irradiance ramp events for a variety of solar energy technologies. The combination of physical and deep learning-based methods is identified as a potential approach to further improve the ramp event forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Benchmarking of Solar Irradiance Nowcast Performance Derived from All-Sky Imagers

Fluctuations of the incoming solar irradiance impact the power generation from photovoltaic and concentrating solar thermal power plants. Accurate solar nowcasting becomes necessary to detect these sudden changes of generated power and to provide the desired information for optimal exploitation of solar systems. In the framework of the International Energy Agency's Photovoltaic Power Systems Program Task 16, a benchmarking exercise has been conducted relying on a bouquet of solar nowcasting methodologies by all-sky imagers (ASI). In this paper, four ASI systems nowcast the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) with a time forecast ranging from 1 to 20 min during 28 days with variable cloud conditions spanning from September to November 2019 in southern Spain. All ASIs demonstrated their ability to accurately nowcast GHI, with RMSE ranging from 6.9% to 18.1%. Under cloudy conditions, all ASIs' nowcasts outperform the persistence models. Under clear skies, three ASIs are better than persistence. Discrepancies in the observed nowcasting performance become larger at increasing forecast horizons. The findings of this study highlight the feasibility of ASIs to reliably nowcast GHI at different sky conditions, time intervals and horizons. Such nowcasts can be used either to estimate solar power at distant times or detect sudden GHI fluctuations.

all-sky imagers↗
DOE OSTI2018

Short-Term Global Horizontal Irradiance Forecasting Based on Sky Imaging and Pattern Recognition

Accurate short-term forecasting is crucial for solar integration in the power grid. In this paper, a classification forecasting framework based on pattern recognition is developed for 1-hour-ahead global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting. Three sets of models in the forecasting framework are trained by the data partitioned from the preprocessing analysis. The first two sets of models forecast GHI for the first four daylight hours of each day. Then the GHI values in the remaining hours are forecasted by an optimal machine learning model determined based on a weather pattern classification model in the third model set. The weather pattern is determined by a support vector machine (SVM) classifier. The developed framework is validated by the GHI and sky imaging data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Results show that the developed short-term forecasting framework outperforms the persistence benchmark by 16% in terms of the normalized mean absolute error and 25% in terms of the normalized root mean square error.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Total-Sky Imager Data with a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Forecasting of Solar Radiation

Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Our previous study introduced a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposed the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle were accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique was used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction were predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-minute exponential weighted moving average, respectively. The model evaluation indicated the estimation and forecast of cloud fraction mostly contributed to the uncertainty of the PSPI though it overcame the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 minutes. This study aims to enhance the PSPI by ingesting surface-based observations of cloud fraction from a total sky imager (TSI). The estimation and forecast of cloud albedo is correspondingly improved by utilizing the cloud fraction observations and thus leads to more accurate GHI forecast. Various time-series analysis methods are also investigated on the forecasting of cloud fraction and cloud albedo for further improving the GHI forecast. These improvements are valuable for many applications, such as forecasting energy use for buildings, grid operations, and ultimately bringing down the cost of solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1994

A Maskless Gamma-Ray All-Sky Imager: BATSE/CGRO

The non-collimated detectors of BATSE (Burst And Transient Source Experiment) on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO) can be used as a high sensitivity hard X-ray and low energy gamma-ray all-sky imager in the energy range between 20 keV and 2 MeV. The fluxes from sources in the sky are modulated as the spacecraft orbits the Earth. The CGRO orbital precession further allows sampling of sky in strips corresponding to the limb of the earth at any given time. The modulation data are transformed into images by various reconstruction methods. High sensitivity images of location accuracy of about 0.1 deg and source seperation of about 1 deg are obtained.

Zhang, S. N.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images: Preprint

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗
DOE OSTI2016

A hybrid approach to estimate the complex motions of clouds in sky images

Tracking the motion of clouds is essential to forecasting the weather and to predicting the short-term solar energy generation. Existing techniques mainly fall into two categories: variational optical flow, and block matching. In this article, we summarize recent advances in estimating cloud motion using ground-based sky imagers and quantitatively evaluate state-of-the-art approaches. Then we propose a hybrid tracking framework to incorporate the strength of both block matching and optical flow models. To validate the accuracy of the proposed approach, we introduce a series of synthetic images to simulate the cloud movement and deformation, and thereafter comprehensively compare our hybrid approach with several representative tracking algorithms over both simulated and real images collected from various sites/imagers. The results show that our hybrid approach outperforms state-of-the-art models by reducing at least 30% motion estimation errors compared with the ground-truth motions in most of simulated image sequences. Furthermore, our hybrid model demonstrates its superior efficiency in several real cloud image datasets by lowering at least 15% Mean Absolute Error (MAE) between predicted images and ground-truth images.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

First Simultaneous Observation of STEVE and SAR Arc Combining Data From Citizen Scientists, 630.0 nm All‐Sky Images, and Satellites

Abstract On September 28, 2017 citizen scientist observations at Alberta, Canada (51°N, 113° W) detected aurora and a thin east‐west purplish arc, known as strong thermal emission velocity enhancement (STEVE) that lasted less than 20 min. All‐sky imagers at subauroral latitudes measured stable auroral red (SAR) arcs during the entire night. The imager at Bridger, MT (45.3°N, 108.9°W) also measured a STEVE. The overlapping geometry allowed to determine that the height of STEVE was 225–275 km. STEVE is brighter in the 630.0 nm images in the West and almost merges with the SAR arc in the East. A DMSP satellite pass in the southern hemisphere was at the conjugate location of the Bridger imager during the STEVE observation. When mapped into the northern hemisphere intense subauroral ion drift and subauroral polarization streams were detected associated with the two optical signatures measured in 630.0 nm.

Martinis, C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solar Transposition Modeling via Deep Neural Networks With Sky Images

This article presents a notable advance toward the development of a new method of increasing the single-axis tracking photovoltaic (PV) system power output by improving the determination and near-term prediction of the optimum module tilt angle. The tilt angle of the plane receiving the greatest total irradiance changes with Sun position and atmospheric conditions including cloud formation and movement, aerosols, and particulate loading, as well as varying albedo within a module's field of view. In this article, we present a multi-input convolutional neural network that can create a profile of plane-of-array irradiance versus surface tilt angle over a full 180° arc from horizon to horizon. As input, the neural network uses the calculated solar position and clear-sky irradiance values, along with sky images. The target irradiance values are provided by the multiplanar irradiance sensor (MPIS). In order to account for varying irradiance conditions, the MPIS signal is normalized by the theoretical clear-sky global horizontal irradiance. Using this information, the neural network outputs an N -dimensional vector, where N is the number of points to approximate the MPIS curve via Fourier resampling. The output vector of the model is smoothed with a Gaussian kernel to account for error in the downsamping and subsequent upsampling steps, as well as to smooth the unconstrained output of the model. Furthermore, these profiles may be used to perform near-term prediction of angular irradiance, which can then inform the movement of a PV tracker.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2012

Cloud Screening and Quality Control Algorithm for Star Photometer Data: Assessment with Lidar Measurements and with All-sky Images

This paper presents the development and set up of a cloud screening and data quality control algorithm for a star photometer based on CCD camera as detector. These algorithms are necessary for passive remote sensing techniques to retrieve the columnar aerosol optical depth, delta Ae(lambda), and precipitable water vapor content, W, at nighttime. This cloud screening procedure consists of calculating moving averages of delta Ae() and W under different time-windows combined with a procedure for detecting outliers. Additionally, to avoid undesirable Ae(lambda) and W fluctuations caused by the atmospheric turbulence, the data are averaged on 30 min. The algorithm is applied to the star photometer deployed in the city of Granada (37.16 N, 3.60 W, 680 ma.s.l.; South-East of Spain) for the measurements acquired between March 2007 and September 2009. The algorithm is evaluated with correlative measurements registered by a lidar system and also with all-sky images obtained at the sunset and sunrise of the previous and following days. Promising results are obtained detecting cloud-affected data. Additionally, the cloud screening algorithm has been evaluated under different aerosol conditions including Saharan dust intrusion, biomass burning and pollution events.

data quality control algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2016

Determination of Cloud Base Height, Wind Velocity, and Short-Range Cloud Structure Using Multiple Sky Imagers Field Campaign Report

Clouds are a central focus of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility, and more broadly are the subject of much investigation because of their important effects on atmospheric radiation and, through feedbacks, on climate sensitivity. Significant progress has been made by moving from a vertically pointing (“soda-straw”) to a three-dimensional (3D) view of clouds by investing in scanning cloud radars through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Yet, because of the physical nature of radars, there are key gaps in ARM's cloud observational capabilities. For example, cloud radars often fail to detect small shallow cumulus and thin cirrus clouds that are nonetheless radiatively important. Furthermore, it takes five to twenty minutes for a cloud radar to complete a 3D volume scan and clouds can evolve substantially during this period. Ground-based stereo-imaging is a promising technique to complement existing ARM cloud observation capabilities. It enables the estimation of cloud coverage, height, horizontal motion, morphology, and spatial arrangement over an extended area of up to 30 by 30 km at refresh rates greater than 1 Hz (Peng et al. 2015). With fine spatial and temporal resolution of modern sky cameras, the stereo-imaging technique allows for the tracking of a small cumulus cloud or a thin cirrus cloud that cannot be detected by a cloud radar. With support from the DOE SunShot Initiative, the Principal Investigator (PI)’s team at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has developed some initial capability for cloud tracking using multiple distinctly located hemispheric cameras (Peng et al. 2015). To validate the ground-based cloud stereo-imaging technique, the cloud stereo-imaging field campaign was conducted at the ARM Facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma from July 15 to December 24. As shown in Figure 1, the cloud stereo-imaging system consisted of two inexpensive high-definition (HD) hemispheric cameras (each cost less than $1,500) and ARM’s Total Sky Imager (TSI). Together with other co-located ARM instrumentation, the campaign provides a promising opportunity to validate stereo-imaging-based cloud base height and, more importantly, to examine the feasibility of cloud thickness retrieval for low-view-angle clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Solar and Load Forecasting Incorporating HD Sky Imaging (Phase III)

Due to rapidly changing sky conditions, the available solar irradiance for energy generation is subject to wide swings in amplitude. As the market penetration of solar energy continues to increase rapidly, these variations in solar power generation are beginning to have an impact on grid stability and increased wear on power switches. Solar power forecasting plays a critical role in operations for Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utilities. Accurate forecasts help maintain grid reliability, optimize generation from renewables, and reduce operating costs. Of particular interest to the ISOs and utilities are sudden changes in solar irradiance, termed “ramp events,” due to the movement of clouds. One significant impact of ramp events on the grid is additional ancillary service requirements necessary to manage such variability. Ramp events can also cause voltage fluctuations in the distribution grids and trigger actions of automated line equipment (e.g., tap changers), leading to additional maintenance costs. In high penetration solar regions, forecasts must be made for both transmission-connected and distribution-connected resources – either behind the meter or in front of it. Particularly for distributed solar energy resources, forecasting can be a challenge due to the lack of visibility of the energy resource. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has been working towards nowcasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) using low-cost technologies for several years now. The Solar NowCasting technology being developed by BNL is a 0 – 30 min solar “nowcasting” technology applicable to a scale covering both large generating facilities and residential, distributed solar installations that relies on a network of ground-based high-definition (HD) cameras and surface pyranometers. GHI forecasts are being produced for both regions using 8 ground-based HD cameras and at least 2 surface pyranometers. When stitched together, the camera images can be used to forecast the impact of clouds on available solar irradiance over a domain of ~50 km 2 . Phase I of the project was the engineering scale up conceptual design stage. Phase II was the initial field test and demonstration, in which the technology was scaled up by a factor of 20 times and successfully demonstrated in eastern Long Island. In Phase III, an additional forecasting network was added in upstate NY and both networks are currently being operated until at least a full year of data is gathered by the Albany network to allow for the collection of sufficient data to evaluate performance against the persistence and smart persistence models using the Solar Arbiter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1997

Alaskan Auroral All-Sky Images on the World Wide Web

In response to a 1995 NASA SPDS announcement of support for preservation and distribution of important data sets online, the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska, proposed to provide World Wide Web access to the Poker Flat Auroral All-sky Camera images in real time. The Poker auroral all-sky camera is located in the Davis Science Operation Center at Poker Flat Rocket Range about 30 miles north-east of Fairbanks, Alaska, and is connected, through a microwave link, with the Geophysical Institute where we maintain the data base linked to the Web. To protect the low light-level all-sky TV camera from damage due to excessive light, we only operate during the winter season when the moon is down. The camera and data acquisition is now fully computer controlled. Digital images are transmitted each minute to the Web linked data base where the data are available in a number of different presentations: (1) Individual JPEG compressed images (1 minute resolution); (2) Time lapse MPEG movie of the stored images; and (3) A meridional plot of the entire night activity.

Stenbaek-Nielsen, H. C.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Advanced Solar and Load Forecasting Incorporating HD Sky Imaging: BNL Phase II Activities (Final Report)

Over the last ten years, lower costs and government incentives for rooftop and utility scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have led to a rapid growth in the amount of power generated from this renewable energy source. For example, the cumulative PV generating capacity of 1,160 MW in New York State at the end of 2018 represents a growth of more than 4,000% over the past seven years and almost 400% over the past five years. But increased dependence on this inherently variable energy source introduces the need to anticipate, i.e., forecast, changes in energy production and manage them appropriately. Utilities and grid operators can then use this forecast information to balance changes and maintain stability of the electric grid by adding additional sources or diverting excess supplies for sale or storage, as needed. Current techniques based on persistence modeling are not accurate enough to provide reliable forecasts. With support from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technology Office (DOE SETO) and the New York Power Authority (NYPA), Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) formed a collaborative team to provide reliable forecasting over a range of time intervals. In addition, the forecasting area was scaled up to about 50 km2, a factor of 20 times larger than previously achieved, so that available solar irradiance could be forecast throughout an entire region including both large generating facilities and distributed rooftop solar arrays. In its role, BNL developed a technology for predicting changes in available solar energy from zero to 30 minutes ahead. This “nowcasting” approach uses inexpensive, off-the-shelf, high definition (HD) imagers with custom software to identify and track the movement of approaching clouds and predict their impact on available solar irradiance. The BNL Nowcasting model improves forecasting accuracy by 20 to 50% over current techniques. Forecasting reliability for low clouds (worst case scenario since they move over solar panels more rapidly than high clouds) was calculated to be 95% accurate for forecast periods of five minute ahead. Reliability decreases with longer forecast time intervals and was calculated to be about 80% for 10 minute forecasts, and about 70% for 20 minutes ahead. Clouds were still reliably tracked by the imager network at 60% accuracy for forecast lead times up to about 30 minutes ahead, and this was determined to be the practical nowcasting limit for low clouds in a network of this scale. This work represents the second phase of a multi-phase effort to develop and deploy solar forecasting at a regional scale so that contributions from distributed rooftop solar resources can be forecast along with solar generating facilities, giving utilities and stakeholders an accurate assessment of future energy production. Additional work is planned to operate the forecasting network in an area upstate New York to assess system reliability under diverse meteorological conditions and to monitor system performance over a full range of seasonal variability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗