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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Solar Activity Across the Scales: From Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar↗
NASA NTRS2021

The First Widespread Solar Energetic Particle Event Observed By Solar Orbiter on 2020 November 29

Context. On 2020 November 29, the first widespread solar energetic particle (SEP) event of solar cycle 25 was observed at four widely separated locations in the inner (. 1AU) heliosphere. Relativistic electrons as well as protons with energies > 50MeV were observed by Solar Orbiter (SolO), Parker Solar Probe (PSP), the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)-A and multiple near-Earth spacecraft. The SEP event was associated with an M4.4 class X-ray flare and accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME) and an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wave as well as a type II radio burst and multiple type III radio bursts. Aims. We present multi-spacecraft particle observations and place them in context with source observations from remote sensing instruments and discuss how such observations may further our understanding of particle acceleration and transport in this widespread event. Methods. Velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and time shift analysis (TSA) were used to infer the particle release times at the Sun. Solar wind plasma and magnetic field measurements were examined to identify structures that influence the properties of the energetic particles such as their intensity. Pitch angle distributions and first-order anisotropies were analyzed in order to characterize the particle propagation in the interplanetary medium. Results. We find that during the 2020 November 29 SEP event, particles spread over more than 230° in longitude close to 1AU. The particle onset delays observed at the different spacecraft are larger as the flare–footpoint angle increases and are consistent with those from previous STEREO observations. Comparing the timing when the EUV wave intersects the estimated magnetic footpoints of each spacecraft with particle release times from TSA and VDA, we conclude that a simple scenario where the particle release is only determined by the EUV wave propagation is unlikely for this event. Observations of anisotropic particle distributions at SolO, Wind, and STEREO-A do not rule out that particles are injected over a wide longitudinal range close to the Sun. However, the low values of the first-order anisotropy observed by near-Earth spacecraft suggest that diffusive propagation processes are likely involved.

A Kollhoff↗
NASA NTRS2018

Physics-Based Approach to Predict the Solar Activity Cycles

Observations of the complex highly non-linear dynamics of global turbulent flows and magnetic fields are currently available only from Earth-side observations. Recent progress in helioseismology has provided us some additional information about the subsurface dynamics, but its relation to the magnetic field evolution is not yet understood. These limitations cause uncertainties that are difficult take into account, and perform proper calibration of dynamo models. The current dynamo models have also uncertainties due to the complicated turbulent physics of magnetic field generation, transport and dissipation. Because of the uncertainties in both observations and theory, the data assimilation approach is natural way for the solar cycle prediction and estimating uncertainties of this prediction. I will discuss the prediction results for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 and their uncertainties and affect of Ensemble Kalman Filter parameters to resulting predictions.

Physics-Based↗
NASA NTRS2017

Solar Activity Across the Scales: from Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-­‐organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-­fold approach: 1) рealistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high-­‐resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-­‐scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Magneti↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

The dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extend from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to global magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across layers of the solar interior and atmosphere, which contribute to coronal heating and eruptive dynamics. For modeling global-scale activity, we use a data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitations on prediction accuracy, and we present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle (25) based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

Dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extends from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to the global-Sun magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across the different layers, which contribute to the corona heating and eruptive dynamics, as well as interlinks between different layers of the solar interior and atmosphere. For modeling the global-scale activity we use the data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitation on the prediction accuracy. We present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields, and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting the solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
DOE OSTI2022

How open data and interdisciplinary collaboration improve our understanding of space weather: A risk and resiliency perspective

Space weather refers to conditions around a star, like our Sun, and its interplanetary space that may affect space- and ground-based assets as well as human life. Space weather can manifest as many different phenomena, often simultaneously, and can create complex and sometimes dangerous conditions. The study of space weather is inherently trans-disciplinary, including subfields of solar, magnetospheric, ionospheric, and atmospheric research communities, but benefiting from collaborations with policymakers, industry, astrophysics, software engineering, and many more. Effective communication is required between scientists, the end-user community, and government organizations to ensure that we are prepared for any adverse space weather effects. With the rapid growth of the field in recent years, the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 maximum, and the evolution of research-ready technologies, we believe that space weather deserves a reexamination in terms of a “risk and resiliency” framework. By utilizing open data science, cross-disciplinary collaborations, information systems, and citizen science, we can forge stronger partnerships between science and industry and improve our readiness as a society to mitigate space weather impacts. The objective of this manuscript is to raise awareness of these concepts as we approach a solar maximum that coincides with an increasingly technology-dependent society, and introduce a unique way of approaching space weather through the lens of a risk and resiliency framework that can be used to further assess areas of improvement in the field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Application of Synoptic Magnetograms for Prediction of Solar Activity Using Ensemble Kalman Filter

Solar activity predictions using the data assimilation approach have demonstrated great potential to build reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to a non-linear dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. These developments assume an empirical relationship between the mean toroidal magnetic field flux and the sunspot number. Estimated from the sunspot number series, variations of the toroidal field have been used to assimilate the data into the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin (PKR) dynamo model by applying the EnKF method. The dynamo model describes the evolution of the toroidal and poloidal components of the magnetic field and the magnetic helicity. Full-disk magnetograms provide more accurate and complete input data by constraining both the toroidal and poloidal global field components, but these data are available only for the last four solar cycles. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of limited time series observations on the accuracy of solar activity predictions. We present EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Unusual Polar Conditions in Solar Cycle 24 and Their Implications for Cycle 25

We report on the prolonged solar-maximum conditions until late 2015 at the north-polar region of the Sun indicated by the occurrence of high-latitude prominence eruptions (PEs) and microwave brightness temperature close to the quiet-Sun level. These two aspects of solar activity indicate that the polarity reversal was completed by mid-2014 in the south and late 2015 in the north. The microwave brightness in the south-polar region has increased to a level exceeding the level of the Cycle 23/24 minimum, but just started to increase in the north. The northsouth asymmetry in the polarity reversal has switched from that in Cycle 23. These observations lead us to the hypothesis that the onset of Cycle 25 in the northern hemisphere is likely to be delayed with respect to that in the southern hemisphere. We find that the unusual condition in the north is a direct consequence of the arrival of poleward surges of opposite polarity from the active region belt. We also find that multiple rush-to-the-pole episodes were indicated by the PE locations that lined up at the boundary between opposite-polarity surges. The high-latitude PEs occurred in the boundary between the incumbent polar flux and the insurgent flux of opposite polarity.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗
NASA NTRS1985

Bearing development program for a 25 kWe solar-powered organic Rankine-cycle engine

The bearing development program is summarized for a 25-kWe power conversion subsystem (PCS) consisting of an organic Rankine-cycle engine, and permanent magnetic alternator (PMA) and rectifier to be used in a 100-kWe point-focusing distributed receiver solar power plant. The engine and alternator were hermetically sealed and used toluene as the working fluid. The turbine, alternator, and feed pump (TAP) were mounted on a single shaft operating at speeds up to 60,000 rev/min. Net thermal-to-electric efficiencies in the range of 21 to 23% were demonstrated at the maximum working fluid temperature of 400 C (750 F). A chronological summary of the bearing development program is presented. The primary causes of bearing wear problems were traced to a combination of rotordynamic instability and electrodynamic discharge across the bearing surfaces caused by recirculating currents from the PMA. These problems were resolved by implementing an externally supplied, flooded-bearing lubrication system and by electrically insulating all bearings from the TAP housing. This program resulted in the successful development of a stable, high-speed, toluene-lubricated five-pad tilting-pad journal bearing and Rayleigh step thrust bearing system capable of operating at all inclinations between horizontal and vertical.

Nesmith, B.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Long-Term Solar Activity Studies Using Microwave Imaging Observations and Prediction for Cycle 25

We use microwave imaging observations from the Nobeyama Radioheliograph at 17 GHz for long-term studies of solar activity. In particular, we use the polar and low-latitude brightness temperatures as proxies to the polar magnetic field and the active-regions, respectively. We also use the location of prominence eruptions as a proxy to the filament locations as a function of time. We show that the polar microwave brightness temperature is highly correlated with the polar magnetic field strength and the fast solar wind speed. We also show that the polar microwave brightness at one cycle is correlated with the low latitude brightness with a lag of about half a solar cycle. We use this correlation to predict the strength of the solar cycle: the smoothed sunspot numbers in the southern and northern hemispheres can be predicted as 89 and 59, respectively. These values indicate that cycle 25 will not be too different from cycle 24 in its strength. We also combined the rush to the pole data from Nobeyama prominences with historical data going back to 1860 to study the north-south asymmetry of sign reversal at solar poles. We find that the reversal asymmetry has a quasi-periodicity of 3-5 cycles.

N. Gopalswamy↗
NASA NTRS2023

Type II Radio Bursts and Their Association With Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Cycles 23 and 24

Context. Meter-wavelength type II solar radio bursts are thought to be the signatures of shock-accelerated electrons in the corona. Studying these bursts can give information about the initial kinematics, dynamics, and energetics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the absence of white-light observations. Aims. We investigate the occurrence of type II bursts in solar cycles 23 and 24 and their association with CMEs. We also explore whether type II bursts might occur in the absence of a CME. Methods. We performed a statistical analysis of type II bursts that occurred between 200 and 25 MHz in solar cycles 23 and 24 and determined the temporal association of these radio bursts with CMEs. We categorized the CMEs based on their linear speed and angular width and studied the distribution of type II bursts with fast (≥500 km s−1 ), slow (<500 km s−1), wide (≥60◦), and narrow (<60◦) CMEs. We explored the dependence of type II bursts occurrence on the phases of the solar cycle. Results. Our analysis shows that during solar cycles 23 and 24, 768 and 435 type II bursts occurred, respectively. Of these, 79% were associated with CMEs in solar cycle 23, and 95% were associated with CMEs in solar cycle 24. However, only 4% and 3% of the total number of CMEs were accompanied by type II bursts in solar cycle 23 and 24, respectively. Most of the type II bursts in both cycles were related to fast and wide CMEs (48%). We also determined the typical drift rate and duration for type II bursts, which is 0.06 MHz s−1 and 9 min. Our results suggest that type II bursts dominate at heights ≈1.7−2.3±0.3 R . A clear majority have an onset height around 1.7 ± 0.3 R assuming the four-fold Newkirk model. Conclusions. The results indicate that most of the type II bursts had a white-light CME counterpart, but a few type II bursts lacked a clear CME association. There were more CMEs in cycle 24 than in cycle 23. However, cycle 24 contained fewer type II radio bursts than cycle 23. The onset heights of type II bursts and their association with wide CMEs reported in this study indicate that the early lateral expansion of CMEs may play a key role in the generation of these radio bursts.

Sun: activity↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analyzing Space Weather at Mars with MAVEN

To understand the processes driving Martian atmospheric escape to space, the MAVEN mission has been monitoring solar inputs at Mars since the spacecraft went into orbit in September 2014. MAVEN’s payload provides in situ measurements of solar wind ions and electrons, solar energetic particles, extreme ultraviolet radiation, and magnetic fields. With this comprehensive suite of instruments, the MAVEN team has monitored space weather at Mars for nearly a decade, over various parts of Solar Cycles 24 and 25. MAVEN observations have determined that space weather activity can deposit enough energy into the Martian system to enhance atmospheric escape by an order of magnitude. As the mission continues, monitoring space weather at Mars has become increasingly important to understand the Sun’s influence on the Martian environment. The MAVEN team provides regular reports of space weather activity, such as the occurrence and arrival time of coronal mass ejections as well as flare magnitude and peak times, to the Mars community when predictions suggest that a space weather-impacting event may be directed towards Mars. MAVEN provides observations of solar activity on the ‘far side’ of the Sun when Earth and Mars are near solar conjunction to augment measurements of solar observatories (e.g., SDO, STEREO, GOES, PSP, Solar Orbiter), providing a more global coverage of solar activity. Additionally, MAVEN is working closely with the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and the Moon to Mars (M2M) Space Weather Analysis Office, both located at NASA GSFC, to form the Mars Space Weather Collaboration. This collaboration utilizes MAVEN observations of space weather activity to facilitate model and prediction validation while creating tools that are available to the science community. These activities are in support of future human and robotic exploration as we identify needs to enhance current capabilities for analyzing space weather at Mars.

Gina A DiBraccio↗
NASA NTRS2000

Decadal Variability and Temperature Trends in the Middle Atmosphere From Historical Rocketsonde Data

Observational studies were performed using historical rocketsonde data to investigate long-term temperature trends, solar-cycle variations, and interactions between tropical and extratropical latitudes in the middle atmosphere. Evidence from tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude North American rocketsonde stations indicated a consistent downward trend over 25 years, with a solar cycle component superposed. The trend is about -1.4 to -2.0 K per decade and the amplitude of the decadal oscillation is about 1.1 K. Prior to trend derivation it was necessary for us to correct temperatures for aerodynamic heating in the early years. The empirically derived correction profile agrees well with a theoretical profile of Krumins and Lyons. A study was also performed of the correlation between equatorial winds and north polar temperatures in winter, showing that the entire stratospheric wind profile near the equator -- including the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and stratopause semiannual oscillation (SAO) -- is important to the extratropical flow, not merely the QBO component as previously thought. A strong correlation was discovered between winter polar temperatures and equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere during the preceding September, suggesting a role for the second cycle of the SAO.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Interplanetary radial cosmic-ray gradients and their implication for a possible large modulation effect at the heliospheric boundary

It is proposed here that a large and time-variable part of the overall 11-year cosmic ray modulation in the heliosphere takes place near the heliosphere boundary itself. This conclusion is reached by examining interplanetary radial gradient measurements which show that out to 30-40 AU this gradient remains nearly independent of heliocentric distance throughout the solar cycle. Properties of the solar wind which suggest that the distance to the pressure balance boundary does not vary by more than + or - 25 percent over the solar cycle are also used in support of the proposal. The importance of the large modulation effect at the boundary could exceed that of interplanetary effects expected from present models.

Webber, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

An early solar dynamo prediction: Cycle 23 is approximately cycle 22

In this paper, we briefly review the 'dynamo' and 'geomagnetic precursor' methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the magnification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, through the development of the 'Solar Dynamo Amplitude' (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 210 +/- 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 170 +/- 25. This suggests that solar cycle #23 will be large, comparable to cycle #22. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 1999.7 +/- 1 year. Since the current approach is novel (using data prior to solar minimum), these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evidence from Galactic Cosmic Rays That the Sun Has Likely Entered A Secular Minimum in Solar Activity

Since the beginning of the space age, the Sun has been in a multi-cycle period of elevated activity (secular maximum). This secular maximum is the longest in the last 9300 years. Since the end of solar cycle 21 (SC21), however, the Sun has shown a decline in over-all activity, which has remarkably increased the fluxes of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). Here, we investigate the correlation between the modulation of GCRs, the heliospheric magnetic field, and solar wind speed for the last 24 solar cycles to find trends that can potentially be used to predict future solar activity. Specifically, we develop a tool for predicting future magnetic field intensity, based on the hysteresis in the GCR variation, during the last phases of the current cycle. This method estimates that SC25 will be as weak as or weaker than SC24. This would mean that the Sun has likely entered a secular minimum, which, according to historical records, should last for another two cycles (SC2527and SC26).

Solar cycles↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting cutoff L-shells of solar protons using the GPPSn particle dataset

Solar energetic protons (SEPs) arriving at the Earth trigger severe radiation storms in the near-Earth space, directly impacting space missions operating at various altitudes. Therefore, monitoring SEP events and predicting the penetration depths of solar protons are critical for aerospace sectors. Building on previous efforts, here we demonstrate the feasibility of using proton measurements from the Global Prompt Proton Sensor network (GPPSn), enabled by Los Alamos National Laboratory developed combined X-ray dosimeters aboard GPS satellites, to characterize and predict the penetration of solar protons into the geomagnetic field. The inclined medium-Earth-orbits (MEOs) of the global GPS constellation offer a unique advantage of allowing simultaneous measurements of penetrating solar protons inside both open- and closed-field line regions. Therefore, the L-profiles of ∼10s–100 MeV solar protons and their associated cutoff L-shells can be determined from the GPPSn dataset, using predefined threshold proton flux values rather than traditional flux ratios. After examining a list of SEP event intervals across solar cycles 23, 24 and 25—including the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm, we showcase how the latest GPPSn proton dataset (release v1.10), reprocessed and calibrated, can not only be used to monitor solar proton distributions inside the dynamic geomagnetic field for individual events, but also to derive a new empirical model linking cutoff L-shells with several key space weather parameters. This newly developed SEPCL-MEO model demonstrates high predictive performance; for example, predictions for > 30 MeV solar protons yield a correlation coefficient of 0.85 and performance efficiency of 0.67 when validated against GPPSn observations. Results from this pilot study underscores the scientific and operational value of the GPPSn dataset, and this dataset—when paired with machine-learning techniques—can play a critical role in observing and predicting the effects of future incoming SEP events, including extreme ones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗