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Flux Comparison of Master-8 and Ordem 3.1 Modelled Space Debris Population

With ESA’s Meteoroid And Space debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER-8) model and NASA’s Orbital Debris Engineering Model(ORDEM) 3.1, the two premier orbital debris engineering models have been officially released. The two models come with significant enhancements and now represent state-of-the-art orbital debris modelling for their respective agencies. Both models provide the community with estimates of the space debris environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) up to at least geostationary altitude. The MASTER population is an event-based simulation of all known events that generate debris and objects that are part of the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog, which provides coverage of objects with diameters down to approximately 10cm in LEO and 1 m in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Different models are used to simulate the artificial objects and their orbit evolution over time. These models are called “sources” since they assign an origin to each individual object and consist of fragments, solid rocket motor (SRM) remainders, sodium-potassium(NaK) droplets, paintflakes, ejecta, and multi-layer insulation (MLI) fragments. The objects from each source are characterized by having individual release mechanisms, as well as orbital distributions, material composition, size, and mass distributions. Dedicated radar and telescope observation data is used to calibrate the model for objects larger than 1 cm in LEO and larger than 10 cm in GEO. For calibrating the small-sized objects, below 1 cm, impact data from returned surfaces are analyzed. Because the >1cm object population is dominated by fragments, the fragmentation event database was updated to include new events, as well as re-evaluate past events. Special attention was drawn to re-evaluating theFengyun-1C anti-satellite test from 2007 and Cosmos-Iridium collision event from 2009 since these events shape the fragment population because of their severity. After 2009, the two largest fragmentations in terms of number of tracked debris are the Briz-M explosion in 2012 and the NOAA-16explosion in 2015. In total, there are 261 confirmed fragmentations in the database up to November 2016.The baseline population for ORDEM 3.1 is based on the U.S. SSN catalog, and observational datasets from radar, in situ, and optical sources provide a foundation from which the model populations are statistically extrapolated to smaller size regions. These regions are not well-covered by the SSN catalog yet may pose the greatest threat to operational spacecraft. The NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model is used to generate fragments greater than 1mm from collisions and explosions, and these fragment populations are scaled using ground-based radar data. Specific major debris-producing events, including the Fengyun-1C, Iridium 33, and Cosmos2251 debris clouds, and unique populations, such as NaK droplets, were re-examined, modelled, and added to the ORDEM environment separately. Optical measurement data is used to model the GEO population down to 10 cm. The debris environment is propagated using NASA’s LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model, and future explosions of intact objects and collisions involving objects greater than 10 cm are assessed statistically. The environment from a few millimetres down to 10 𝜇m is modelled using a special degradation model where small particles are generated from intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, then the populations are scaled to fit in situ cratering data from Space Shuttle returned surfaces. Fragments smaller than 10 cm are differentiated based on material density categories, i.e., high-, medium-, and low-density, to better characterize the potential debris risk posed to upper stages and spacecraft. This paper will discuss the MASTER and ORDEM approaches for modelling populations and compare fluxes for specific orbits, including sun-synchronous, ISS-altitude, geosynchronous transfer, and GEO. In the end, a conclusion is drawn towards the importance of having multiple fundamentally different, yet validated, models to estimate the space debris population.

Andre Horstmann↗
NASA NTRS2008

Space Debris Symposium (A6.) Measurements and Space Surveillance (1.): Measurements of the Small Particle Debris Cloud from the 11 January, 2007 Chinese Anti-satellite Test

On January 11, 2007, the Chinese military conducted a test of an anti-satellite (ASAT) system, destroying their own Fengyun-1C spacecraft with an interceptor missile. The resulting hypervelocity collision created an unprecedented number of tracked debris - more than 2500 objects. These objects represent only those large enough for the US Space Surveillance Network (SSN) to track - typically objects larger than about 5-10 cm in diameter. There are expected to be even more debris objects at sizes too small to be seen and tracked by the SSN. Because of the altitude of the target satellite (865 x 845 km orbit), many of the debris are expected to have long orbital lifetimes and contribute to the orbital debris environment for decades to come. In the days and weeks following the ASAT test, NASA was able to use Lincoln Laboratory s Haystack radar on several occasions to observe portions of the ASAT debris cloud. Haystack has the capability of detecting objects down to less than one centimeter in diameter, and a large number of centimeter-sized particles corresponding to the ASAT cloud were clearly seen in the data. While Haystack cannot track these objects, the statistical sampling procedures NASA uses can give an accurate statistical picture of the characteristics of the debris from a breakup event. For years computer models based on data from ground hypervelocity collision tests (e.g., the SOCIT test) and orbital collision experiments (e.g., the P-78 and Delta-180 on-orbit collisions) have been used to predict the extent and characteristics of such hypervelocity collision debris clouds, but until now there have not been good ways to verify these models in the centimeter size regime. It is believed that unplanned collisions of objects in space similar to ASAT tests will drive the long-term future evolution of the debris environment in near-Earth space. Therefore, the Chinese ASAT test provides an excellent opportunity to test the models used to predict the future debris environment. For this study, Haystack detection events are compared to model predictions to test the model assumptions, including debris size distribution, velocity distribution, and assumptions about momentum transfer between the target and interceptor. In this paper we will present the results of these and other measurements on the size and extent of collisional breakup debris clouds.

Matney, Mark J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Space Debris Modeling at NASA

Since the Second European Conference on Space Debris in 1997, the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Johnson Space Center has undertaken a major effort to update and improve the principal software tools employed to model the space debris environment and to evaluate mission risks. NASA's orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM, represents the current and near-term Earth orbital debris population from the largest spacecraft to the smallest debris in a manner which permits spacecraft engineers and experimenters to estimate the frequency and velocity with which a satellite may be struck by debris of different sizes. Using expanded databases and a new program design, ORDEM2000 provides a more accurate environment definition combined with a much broader array of output products in comparison with its predecessor, ORDEM96. Studies of the potential long-term space debris environment are now conducted with EVOLVE 4.0, which incorporates significant advances in debris characterization and breakup modeling. An adjunct to EVOLVE 4.0, GEO EVOLVE has been created to examine debris issues near the geosynchronous orbital regime. In support of NASA Safety Standard 1740.14, which establishes debris mitigation guidelines for all NASA space programs, a set of evaluation tools called the Debris Assessment Software (DAS) is specifically designed for program offices to determine whether they are in compliance with NASA debris mitigation guidelines. DAS 1.5 has recently been released with improved WINDOWS compatibility and graphics functions. DAS 2.0 will incorporate guideline changes in a forthcoming revision to NASA Safety Standard 1740.14. Whereas DAS contains a simplified model to calculate possible risks associated with satellite reentries, NASA's higher fidelity Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) has been upgraded to Version 5.0. With the growing awareness of the potential risks posed by uncontrolled satellite reentries to people and property on Earth, the application of both DAS and ORSAT has increased markedly in the past two years.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Volumetric imaging of space debris using sun microsystem's TAAC-1 application accelerator board

Analysis of space debris requires the researcher to have a three-dimensional spatial framework and understanding. By using computers to image and display the space debris volumes, the researcher is provided with an added visual analysis tool. This paper describes volumetric visualization of space debris. Two imaging approaches are used. The first method visualizes the cube faces of the volumetric image. The second method uses a ray-tracing technique to display surfaces within the volume. Three examples of space debris volumes are described.

Luetkemeyer, Kelly G.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Space Debris Environment Remediation Concepts

Long-term projections of the space debris environment indicate that even drastic measures, such as an immediate, complete halt of launch and release activities, will not result in a stable environment of man-made space objects. Collision events between already existing space hardware will within a few decades start to dominate the debris population, and result in a net increase of the space debris population, also in size regimes which may cause further catastrophic collisions. Such a collisional cascading will ultimately lead to a run-away situation ("Kessler syndrome"), with no further possibility of human intervention. The International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) has been investigating the status and the stability of the space debris environment in several studies by first looking into space traffic management possibilities and then investigating means of mitigating the creation of space debris. In an ongoing activity, an IAA study group looks at ways of active space debris environment remediation. In contrast to the former mitigation study, the current activity concentrates on the active removal of small and large objects, such as defunct spacecraft, orbital stages, and mission-related objects, which serve as a latent mass reservoir that fuels initial catastrophic collisions and later collisional cascading. The paper will outline different mass removal concepts, e.g. based on directed energy, tethers (momentum exchange or electrodynamic), aerodynamic drag augmentation, solar sails, auxiliary propulsion units, retarding surfaces, or on-orbit capture. Apart from physical principles of the proposed concepts, their applicability to different orbital regimes, and their effectiveness concerning mass removal efficiency will be analyzed. The IAA activity on space debris environment remediation is a truly international project which involves more than 23 contributing authors from 9 different nations.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗
NASA NTRS1996

User's Manual for Space Debris Surfaces (SD_SURF)

A unique collection of computer codes, Space Debris Surfaces (SD_SURF), have been developed to assist in the design and analysis of space debris protection systems. SD_SURF calculates and summarizes a vehicle's vulnerability to space debris as a function of impact velocity and obliquity. An SD_SURF analysis will show which velocities and obliquities are the most probable to cause a penetration. This determination can help the analyst select a shield design which is best suited to the predominant penetration mechanism. The analysis also indicates the most suitable parameters for development or verification testing. The SD_SURF programs offer the option of either FORTRAN programs and Microsoft EXCEL spreadsheets and macros. The FORTRAN programs work with BUMPERII version 1.2a or 1.3 (Cosmic released). The EXCEL spreadsheets and macros can be used independently or with selected output from the SD_SURF FORTRAN programs.

Elfer, N. C.↗
NASA NTRS2018

USA Space Debris Environment, Operations, and Research Updates

Space Missions in 2017 Earth Satellite Population Collision Avoidance Maneuvers Post mission Disposal of U.S.A. Spacecraft Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and the Space Debris Sensor (SDS) A total of 86 space launches placed more than 400 spacecraft into Earth orbits during 2017, following the trend of increase over the past decade NASA has established conjunction assessment processes for its human spaceflight and uncrewed spacecraft to avoid accidental collisions with objects tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network - NASA also assists other U.S. government spacecraft owners with conjunction assessments and subsequent maneuvers The ISS has conducted 25 debris collision avoidance maneuvers since 1999 - None in 2016-2017, but an ISS visiting vehicle had one collision avoidance maneuver in 2017 During 2017 NASA executed or assisted in the execution of 21 collision avoidance maneuvers by uncrewed spacecraft - Four maneuvers were conducted to avoid debris from Fengyun-1C - Two maneuvers were conducted to avoid debris from the collision of Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 - One maneuver was conducted to avoid the ISS NASA has established conjunction assessment processes for its human spaceflight and uncrewed spacecraft to avoid accidental collisions with objects tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network - NASA also assists other U.S. government spacecraft owners with conjunction assessments and subsequent maneuvers The ISS has conducted 25 debris collision avoidance maneuvers since 1999 - None in 2016-2017, but an ISS visiting vehicle had one collision avoidance maneuver in 2017 During 2017 NASA executed or assisted in the execution of 21 collision avoidance maneuvers by uncrewed spacecraft - Four maneuvers were conducted to avoid debris from Fengyun-1C - Two maneuvers were conducted to avoid debris from the collision of Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 The 2014-15 NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) study on the micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) assessment for the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) provided the following findings - Millimeter-sized orbital debris pose the highest penetration risk to most operational spacecraft in LEO - The most effective means to collect direct measurement data on millimetersized debris above 600 km altitude is to conduct in situ measurements - There is currently no in situ data on such small debris above 600 km altitude Since the orbital debris population follows a power-law size distribution, there are many more millimeter-sized debris than the large tracked objects - Current conjunction assessments and collision avoidance maneuvers against the tracked objects (which are typically 10 cm and larger) only address a small fraction (<1%) of the mission-ending risk from orbital debris To address the millimeter-sized debris data gap above 600 km, NASA has recently developed an innovative in situ measurement instrument - the Space Debris Sensor (SDS) - One maneuver was conducted to avoid the ISS

Liou, J.-C.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Space Debris Surfaces (Computer Code): Probability of No Penetration Versus Impact Velocity and Obliquity

A unique collection of computer codes, Space Debris Surfaces (SD_SURF), have been developed to assist in the design and analysis of space debris protection systems. SD_SURF calculates and summarizes a vehicle's vulnerability to space debris as a function of impact velocity and obliquity. An SD_SURF analysis will show which velocities and obliquities are the most probable to cause a penetration. This determination can help the analyst select a shield design that is best suited to the predominant penetration mechanism. The analysis also suggests the most suitable parameters for development or verification testing. The SD_SURF programs offer the option of either FORTRAN programs or Microsoft-EXCEL spreadsheets and macros. The FORTRAN programs work with BUMPERII. The EXCEL spreadsheets and macros can be used independently or with selected output from the SD_SURF FORTRAN programs. Examples will be presented of the interaction between space vehicle geometry, the space debris environment, and the penetration and critical damage ballistic limit surfaces of the shield under consideration.

Elfer, N.↗
NASA NTRS1992

External tank space debris considerations

Orbital debris issues associated with maintaining a Space Shuttle External Tank (ET) on orbit are presented. The first issue is to ensure that the ET does not become a danger to other spacecraft by generating space debris, and the second is to protect the pressurized ET from penetration by space debris or meteoroids. Tests on shield designs for penetration resistance showed that when utilized with an adequate bumper, thermal protection system foam on the ET is effective in preventing penetration.

Elfer, N.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Methodology of design and analysis of external walls of space station for hypervelocity impacts by meteoroids and space debris

The development of criteria and methodology for the design and analysis of Space Station wall elements for collisions with meteoroids and space debris at hypervelocities is discussed. These collisions will occur at velocities of 10 km/s or more and can be damaging to the external wall elements of the Space Station. The wall elements need to be designed to protect the pressurized modules of the Space Station from functional or structural failure due to these collisions at hypervelocities for a given environment and population of meteoroids and space debris. The design and analysis approach and the associated computer program presented is to achieve this objective, including the optimization of the design for a required overall probability of no penetration. The approach is based on the presently available experimental and actual data on meteoroids and space debris flux and damage assessments and the empirical relationships resulting from the hypervelocity impact studies in laboratories.

Batla, F. A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Space Debris Environment for the ISS Orbit

With thirty-five planned missions over the next five years, the International Space Station (ISS) will be the focus for manned space activity. At least 6 different vehicles will transport crew and supplies to and from the nominally 400 km, 51.6 degree orbit. When completed, the ISS will be the largest space structure ever assembled and hence the largest target for space debris. Recent work at the Johnson Space Center has focused on updating the existing space debris models. The Orbital Debris Engineering Model, has been restructured to take advantage of state of the art desktop computing capability and revised with recent measurements from Haystack and Goldstone radars, additional analysis of LDEF and STS impacts, and the most recent SSN catalog. The new model also contains the capability to extrapolate the current environment in time to the year 2030. A revised meteoroid model based on the work of Divine has also been developed, and is called the JSC Meteoroid Model. The new model defines flux on the target per unit angle per unit speed, and for Earth orbit, includes the meteor showers. This paper quantifies the space debris environment for the ISS orbit from natural and anthropogenic sources. Particle flux and velocity distributions as functions of size and angle are be given for particles 10 microns and larger for altitudes from 350 to 450 km. The environment is projected forward in time until 2030.

Theall, Jeff↗
NASA NTRS1989

Nuclear-powered space debris sweeper

Future spacecraft design will be affected by collisions with man-made debris orbiting the earth. Most of this orbital space debris comes from spent rocket stages. It is projected that the source of future debris will be the result of fragmentation of large objects through hypervelocity collisions. Orbiting spacecraft will have to be protected from hypervelocity debris in orbit. The options are to armor the spacecraft, resulting in increased mass, or actively removing the debris from orbit. An active space debris sweeper is described which will utilize momentum transfer to the debris through laser-induced ablation to alter its orbital parameters to reduce orbital lifetime with eventual entry into the earth's atmosphere where it will burn. The paper describes the concept, estimates the amount of velocity change (Delta V) that can be imparted to an object through laser-induced ablation, and investigates the use of a neutral particle beam for the momentum transfer. The space sweeper concept could also be extended to provide a collision avoidance system for the space station and satellites, or could be used for collision protection during interplanetary travel.

Metzger, John D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Space Debris Surfaces - Probability of no penetration versus impact velocity and obliquity

A collection of computer codes called Space Debris Surfaces (SD-SURF), have been developed to assist in the design and analysis of space debris protection systems. An SD-SURF analysis will show which obliquities and velocities are most likely to cause a penetration to help the analyst select a shield design best suited to the predominant penetration mechanism. Examples of the interaction between space vehicle geometry, the space debris environment, and the penetration and critical damage ballistic limit surfaces of the shield under consideration are presented.

Elfer, N.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Applied Astronomy: An Optical Survey for Space Debris at GEO

A viewgraph is presented to discuss space debris at Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO). The topics include: 1) Syncom1 launched February 14, 1963 Failed on orbit insertion 1st piece of GEO debris!; 2) Example of recent GEO payload: XM-2 Rock satellite for direct broadcast radio; 3) MODEST Michigan Orbital DEbrisSurvey Telescope the telescope formerly known as the Curtis-Schmidt; 4) GEO Debris Survey; 5) Examples of Detections; 6) Brightness Variations Common; 7) Observed Angular Rates; 8) Two Populations at GEO; 9) High Area-to-Mass Ratio Material (A/M); 10) Examples of MLI; 11) Examples of MLI Release in LEO; 12) Liou & Weaver (2005) models; 13) ESA 1-m Telescope Survey; 14) Two Telescopes March 2007 Survey and Follow-up; 15) Final Eccentricity; and 16) How control Space Debris?

Seitzer, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS1990

Optical observations of space debris

The Johnson Space Center is processing optical data on orbital debris from five sources. The greatest amount of data so far obtianed is from the GEODSS system for which an analysis is presented of 80.9 hours of zenith observations. A total of 622 satellites were found of which 255 have been identified with objects in the USAF Space Command catalog (SCC). When objects in the SCC but which are not seen by GEODSS are accounted for, an SCC completeness factor of 0.46 over all diameters in the 500 to 1100 km height range is found. For objects with diameters between 8 and 30 cm this factor is 0.26. Comparison of GEODSS-derived diameters with RCS-derived diameters yields a revised mean albedo of approximately 0.08.

Henize, Karl G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Implementation of an Open-Scenario, Long-Term Space Debris Simulation Approach

This paper provides a status update on the implementation of a flexible, long-term space debris simulation approach. The motivation is to build a tool that can assess the long-term impact of various options for debris-remediation, including the LightForce space debris collision avoidance concept that diverts objects using photon pressure [9]. State-of-the-art simulation approaches that assess the long-term development of the debris environment use either completely statistical approaches, or they rely on large time steps on the order of several days if they simulate the positions of single objects over time. They cannot be easily adapted to investigate the impact of specific collision avoidance schemes or de-orbit schemes, because the efficiency of a collision avoidance maneuver can depend on various input parameters, including ground station positions and orbital and physical parameters of the objects involved in close encounters (conjunctions). Furthermore, maneuvers take place on timescales much smaller than days. For example, LightForce only changes the orbit of a certain object (aiming to reduce the probability of collision), but it does not remove entire objects or groups of objects. In the same sense, it is also not straightforward to compare specific de-orbit methods in regard to potential collision risks during a de-orbit maneuver. To gain flexibility in assessing interactions with objects, we implement a simulation that includes every tracked space object in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and propagates all objects with high precision and variable time-steps as small as one second. It allows the assessment of the (potential) impact of physical or orbital changes to any object. The final goal is to employ a Monte Carlo approach to assess the debris evolution during the simulation time-frame of 100 years and to compare a baseline scenario to debris remediation scenarios or other scenarios of interest. To populate the initial simulation, we use the entire space-track object catalog in LEO. We then use a high precision propagator to propagate all objects over the entire simulation duration. If collisions are detected, the appropriate number of debris objects are created and inserted into the simulation framework. Depending on the scenario, further objects, e.g. due to new launches, can be added. At the end of the simulation, the total number of objects above a cut-off size and the number of detected collisions provide benchmark parameters for the comparison between scenarios. The simulation approach is computationally intensive as it involves tens of thousands of objects; hence we use a highly parallel approach employing up to a thousand cores on the NASA Pleiades supercomputer for a single run. This paper describes our simulation approach, the status of its implementation, the approach to developing scenarios and examples of first test runs.

laser↗
NASA NTRS1961

Space Debris Hazard Evaluation

The hazard to space vehicles from natural space debris has been explored. A survey of the available information pertinent to this problem is presented. The hope is that this presentation gives a coherent picture of the knowledge to date in terms of the topic covered. The conclusion reached is that a definite hazard exists but that it can only be poorly assessed on the basis of present information. The need for direct measurement of this hazard is obvious, and some of the problems involved in making these direct measurements have been explored.

Davison, Elmer H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Space debris: Orbital microparticulates impacting LDEF experiments favour a natural extraterrestrial origin

The results of work carried out at the Unit for Space Sciences at the University of Kent at Canterbury, United Kingdom, on the micrometeoroid and space debris environment of near Earth space are described. The primary data for the research program is supplied by an examination of several types of exposed surface from the NASA Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), including an experiment dedicated to the detection of micrometeoroids and space debris provided by the University.

Mcdonnell, Tony↗