Results for “space mission analysis” — Page 2

DOE OSTI1991

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 32, No. 4, October-December 1991]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 477 Report on the International Symposium on the Use of Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Operational Safety—PSA '91, S. Chakraborty and M. Khatib-Rahbar; 488 Good Relationships Are Pivotal in Nuclear Data Bases, A. S. Heger and B. V. Koen; 494 Technical Note: The Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel's Evaluation of the Ulysses Space Mission, J. A. Sholtis, Jr., D. A. Huff, L. B. Gray, N. P. Klug, and R. O. Winchester; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 502 The Severe Accident Analysis Program for the Savannah River Nuclear Production Reactors, M. L. Hyder; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 511 A Framework for Selecting Suitable Control Technologies for Nuclear Power Plant Systems, R. A. Kisner; DESIGN FEATURES: 521 Containments for Gas-Cooled Power Reactors History and Status, P.W. Williams; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 537 Indoor Radon: A Natural Risk, N. H. Harley and J.H. Harley; On the Importance of the Atmospheric Parameters in the Fission Products Distribution of a Severe Reactor Accident, M. C. Barla and A. R. Bayulken; Book Review: Health Effects of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation BEIR V, C. R. Richmond; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 555 Activities Related to Waste and Spent Fuel Management, M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 567 Effects of Component Aging on the Westhinghouse Control Rod Drive System, K. Sullivan and W. Gunther; 577 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher, 580 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; 582 Operating U 8 Power Reactors, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver, RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 596 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; 610 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 614 Proposed Rule Changes as of June 30, 1991; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 520 Workshop on PC PRAISE: A Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Personal Computer Code for Nuclear Power Plant Piping Reliability Assessment; 536 Fifth Workshop on Nuclear Power Plant Containment Integrity; 624 New OECD "International Information System on Occupational Exposure (ISOE)"; 625 Harvard School of Public Health Announces Short Courses; 625 Eighth Power Plant Dynamics, Control and Testing Symposium; 626 Second Training Course on Off-Site Emergency Planning and Response for Nuclear Accidents; 618 The Authors; 622 Reviewers of Nuclear Safety, Vol 32.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Phase-curve Pollution of Exoplanet Transit Depths

The next generation of space telescopes will enable transformative science to understand the nature and origin of exoplanets. In particular, transit spectroscopy will reveal the chemical composition of the exoplanet atmospheres with unprecedented detail thanks to precise measurements of the visible-to-infrared transit depths down to 10 parts per million. Such a level of instrumental precision raises the challenge to obtain even more precise astrophysical models so as not to significantly influence the interpretation of the observed data. We must therefore critically revisit some of the commonly accepted assumptions that were adequate for analyzing past and current observations. A common approximation in the analysis of exoplanetary primary transits is that the planet does not contribute to the recorded flux, so-called dark planet hypothesis. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the dark planet hypothesis on the parameters obtained from the analysis of transits with particular attention to the transit depth. We develop mathematical formulae and release new software to estimate the magnitude of the potential bias. These tools will be useful in the preparation of observing proposals, as well as within the scientific consortia of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the Atmospheric Remote-sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey (ARIEL) missions. We probe the accuracy of the mathematical formulae through the analysis of synthetic observations with the JWST Mid-InfraRed Instrument. We find that self-blending from nightside emission attenuates the transit depth by >3σ for some of the known exoplanet systems, in agreement with previous work. An additional unreported effect caused by the nightside rotating into view can also impart a significant effect, but in the opposite direction (increasing the transit depth); this effect can largely be removed with conventional detrending practices, at the expense of a slight increase in noise, and mixing astrophysical variations and instrumental drifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI1991

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 32, No. 4, October-December 1991]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 477 Report on the International Symposium on the Use of Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Operational Safety—PSA '91, S. Chakraborty and M. Khatib-Rahbar; 488 Good Relationships Are Pivotal in Nuclear Data Bases, A. S. Heger and B. V. Koen; 494 Technical Note: The Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel's Evaluation of the Ulysses Space Mission, J. A. Sholtis, Jr., D. A. Huff, L. B. Gray, N. P. Klug, and R. O. Winchester; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 502 The Severe Accident Analysis Program for the Savannah River Nuclear Production Reactors, M. L. Hyder; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 511 A Framework for Selecting Suitable Control Technologies for Nuclear Power Plant Systems, R. A. Kisner; DESIGN FEATURES: 521 Containments for Gas-Cooled Power Reactors History and Status, P.W. Williams; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 537 Indoor Radon: A Natural Risk, N. H. Harley and J.H. Harley; On the Importance of the Atmospheric Parameters in the Fission Products Distribution of a Severe Reactor Accident, M. C. Barla and A. R. Bayulken; Book Review: Health Effects of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation BEIR V, C. R. Richmond; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 555 Activities Related to Waste and Spent Fuel Management, M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 567 Effects of Component Aging on the Westhinghouse Control Rod Drive System, K. Sullivan and W. Gunther; 577 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher, 580 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; 582 Operating U 8 Power Reactors, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver, RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 596 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; 610 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 614 Proposed Rule Changes as of June 30, 1991; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 520 Workshop on PC PRAISE: A Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Personal Computer Code for Nuclear Power Plant Piping Reliability Assessment; 536 Fifth Workshop on Nuclear Power Plant Containment Integrity; 624 New OECD "International Information System on Occupational Exposure (ISOE)"; 625 Harvard School of Public Health Announces Short Courses; 625 Eighth Power Plant Dynamics, Control and Testing Symposium; 626 Second Training Course on Off-Site Emergency Planning and Response for Nuclear Accidents; 618 The Authors; 622 Reviewers of Nuclear Safety, Vol 32.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Wildfires Temperature Estimation by Complementary Use of Hyperspectral PRISMA and Thermal (ECOSTRESS & L8)

This paper deals with detection and temperature analysis and of wildfires using PRISMA imagery. Precursore IperSpettrale della Missione Applicativa (Hyperspectral Precursor of the Application Mission, PRISMA) is a new hyperspectral mission by ASI (Agenzia Spaziale Italiana, Italian Space Agency) launched in 2019. This mission provides hyperspectral images with a spectral range of 400–2,500 nm and an average spectral resolution less than 12 nm and a spatial resolution of 30 m/pixel. This study focuses on the wildfire temperature estimation over the Bootleg Fire, US 2021. The analysis starts by considering the Hyperspectral Fire Detection Index (HFDI) which is used to analyze the informative content of the images, along with the analysis of some specific visible, near-infrared and shortwave-infrared bands. This first analysis is used as input to perform a temperature estimation of the areas with active wildfire. Surface temperature is retrieved using PRISMA radiance and a linear mixing model based on two background components (vegetation and burn scar) and two active fire components. PRISMA temperatures are compared with LST (Land Surface Temperature) products from NASA's ECOSTRESS and Landsat 8 which imaged the Bootleg Fire before and after PRISMA. A critical discussion of the results obtained with PRISMA is presented, followed by the advantages and limitation of the proposed approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

PSTN-019: The LSST Science Pipelines Software: Optical Survey Pipeline Reduction and Analysis Environment

The NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory is executing the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) as its prime mission, producing a series of data releases over the ten-year survey. The LSST Science Pipelines Software will be used to create these data releases and to perform the nightly prompt processing and alert production. This paper provides an overview of the LSST Science Pipelines Software, describing the components and their integration into pipelines that generate science-ready data products.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Chapter 8: Life-Cycle Testing and Analysis

Prior to a spacecraft launch, program mission assurance standards dictate that the flight battery power system should comply with mission requirements under the intended operating conditions. Ground life cycle testing (LCT) combined with an analysis on the electrical power system (EPS) battery is an empirical method used to demonstrate compliance to satellite service life requirements. The LCT compliance method adopted by the aerospace industry is based on demonstrating a space battery's life expectancy as a part of battery qualification. Real-time cell and lithium-ion battery (LIB) LCT data are commonly used for model inputs to EPS power and energy balance analyses, in LIB reliability analysis estimates, and to support on-orbit spacecraft mission life extension opportunities. This chapter describes the LCT planning steps, process approach, and analysis techniques commonly used to qualify space LIB power systems.

accelerated aging↗

DOE OSTI2020

Design and Analysis of a 250 MW Plate-Fuel Reactor for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) is a viable option for deep space missions due to its high thrust and lightweight system. Promising fuel options considered for the high operating temperature of NTP include graphite composite fuel and tungsten cermet fuel. As there remain uncertainties in the fabrication and performance of these two fuel elements, alternative designs using fuel plates and more typical fuels based on proven nuclear technologies are also being considered. This paper provides a summary of thermal hydraulic and neutronic analyses of the straight-plate fuel assembly design used for a 250 MW NTP core. The summary of technical findings from a series of scoping studies might be useful for future NTP engine designs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Design and Analysis of a 250 MW Plate-fuel Reactor for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system is a viable option for deep space missions considering its high thrust and lightweight. Promising fuel options being considered for the high operating temperature of NTP include the graphite composite fuel and the tungsten cermet fuel. As there remains uncertainties in the fabrication and performance of these two fuel elements, alternative designs using fuel plates and more standard fuels that are based on proven and tested nuclear technologies are being considered. This paper provides a summary of thermal hydraulic and neutronic analyses of the straight fuel plate concept used for a 250 MW NTP core. The summary of technical findings from a series of scoping studies might be useful for the future NTP engine designs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Remote Sensing of Tundra Ecosystems Using High Spectral Resolution Reflectance: Opportunities and Challenges

Abstract Observing the environment in the vast regions of Earth through remote sensing platforms provides the tools to measure ecological dynamics. The Arctic tundra biome, one of the largest inaccessible terrestrial biomes on Earth, requires remote sensing across multiple spatial and temporal scales, from towers to satellites, particularly those equipped for imaging spectroscopy (IS). We describe a rationale for using IS derived from advances in our understanding of Arctic tundra vegetation communities and their interaction with the environment. To best leverage ongoing and forthcoming IS resources, including National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Surface Biology and Geology mission, we identify a series of opportunities and challenges based on intrinsic spectral dimensionality analysis and a review of current data and literature that illustrates the unique attributes of the Arctic tundra biome. These opportunities and challenges include thematic vegetation mapping, complicated by low‐stature plants and very fine‐scale surface composition heterogeneity; development of scalable algorithms for retrieval of canopy and leaf traits; nuanced variation in vegetation growth and composition that complicates detection of long‐term trends; and rapid phenological changes across brief growing seasons that may go undetected due to low revisit frequency or be obscured by snow cover and clouds. We recommend improvements to future field campaigns and satellite missions, advocating for research that combines multi‐scale spectroscopy, from lab studies to satellites that enable frequent and continuous long‐term monitoring, to inform statistical and biophysical approaches to model vegetation dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ground observations of a space laser for the assessment of its in-orbit performance

The wind mission Aeolus of the European Space Agency was a groundbreaking achievement for Earth observation. Between 2018 and 2023, the space-borne lidar instrument ALADIN onboard the Aeolus satellite measured atmospheric wind profiles with global coverage, which contributed to improving the accuracy of numerical weather prediction. The precision of the wind observations, however, declined over the course of the mission due to a progressive loss of the atmospheric backscatter signal. The analysis of the root cause was supported by the Pierre Auger Observatory in Argentina whose fluorescence detector registered the ultraviolet laser pulses emitted from the instrument in space, thereby offering an estimation of the laser energy at the exit of the instrument for several days in 2019, 2020, and 2021. The reconstruction of the laser beam not only allowed for an independent assessment of the Aeolus performance, but also helped to improve the accuracy in the determination of the laser beam’s ground track on single pulse level. The results presented in this paper set a precedent for the monitoring of space lasers by ground-based telescopes and open new possibilities for the calibration of cosmic-ray observatories.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

The K2 and TESS Synergy. I. Updated Ephemerides and Parameters for K2-114, K2-167, K2-237, and K2-261

Although the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) primary mission observed the northern and southern ecliptic hemispheres, generally avoiding the ecliptic, and the Kepler space telescope during the K2 mission could only observe near the ecliptic, many of the K2 fields extend far enough from the ecliptic plane that sections overlap with TESS fields. Using photometric observations from both K2 and TESS, combined with archival spectroscopic observations, we globally modeled four known planetary systems discovered by K2 that were observed in the first year of the primary TESS mission. Specifically, we provide updated ephemerides and system parameters for K2-114 b, K2-167 b, K2-237 b, and K2-261 b. These were some of the first K2 planets to be observed by TESS in the first year and include three Jovian sized planets and a sub-Neptune with orbital periods less than 12 days. In each case, the updated ephemeris significantly reduces the uncertainty in prediction of future times of transit, which is valuable for planning observations with the James Webb Space Telescope and other future facilities. The TESS extended mission is expected to observe about half of the K2 fields, providing the opportunity to perform this type of analysis on a larger number of systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Overview of the fusion nuclear science facility, a credible break-in step on the path to fusion energy

The Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF) is examined here as part of a two step program from ITER to commercial power plants. This first step is considered mandatory to establish the materials and component database in the real fusion in-service environment before proceeding to larger electricity producing facilities. The FNSF can be shown to make tremendous advances beyond ITER, toward a power plant, particularly in plasma duration and fusion nuclear environment. A moderate FNSF is studied in detail, which does not generate net electricity, but does reach the power plant blanket operating temperatures. The full poloidal Dual Coolant Lead Lithium (DCLL) blanket is chosen, with alternates being the Helium Cooled Lead Lithium (HCLL) and Helium Cooled Ceramic Breeder/Pebble Bed (HCCB/PB). Several power plant relevant choices are made in order to follow the philosophy of targeted technologies. Any fusion core component must be qualified by fusion relevant neutron testing and highly integrated non-nuclear testing before it can be installed on the FNSF in order to avoid the high probability of constant failures in a plasma-vacuum system. A range of missions for the FNSF, or any fusion nuclear facility on the path toward fusion power plants, are established and characterized by several metrics. A conservative physics strategy is pursued to accommodate the transition to ultra-long plasma pulses, and parameters are chosen to represent the power plant regime to the extent possible. An operating space is identified, and from this, one point is chosen for further detailed analysis, with R = 4.8 m, a = 1.2 m, IP = 7.9 MA, BT = 7.5 T, βN Gr = 0.9, fBS = 0.52, q95 = 6.0, H98 ∼1.0, and Q = 4.0. The operating space is shown to be robust to parameter variations. A program is established for the FNSF to show how the missions for the facility are met, with a He/H, a DD and 5 DT phases. The facility requires ∼25 years to complete its DT operation, including 7.8 years of neutron production, and the remaining spent on inspections and maintenance. The DD phase is critical to establish the ultra-long plasma pulse lengths. The blanket testing strategy is examined, and shows that many sectors have penetrations for heating and current drive (H/CD), diagnostics, or Test Blanket Modules (TBMs). The hot cell is a critical facility element in order for the FNSF to perform its function of developing the in-service material and component database. The pre-FNSF R&D is laid out in terms of priority topics, with the FNSF phases driving the time-lines for R&D completion. A series of detailed technical assessments of the FNSF operating point are reported in this issue, showing the credibility of such a step, and more detailed emphasis on R&D items to pursue. These include nuclear analysis, thermo-mechanics and thermal-hydraulics, liquid metal thermal hydraulics, transient thermo-mechanics, tritium analysis, maintenance assessment, magnet specification and analysis, materials assessments, core and scrape-off layer (SOL)/divertor plasma examinations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Particle Response of Antenna-Coupled TES Arrays: Results from SPIDER and the Laboratory

Future mm-wave and sub-mm space missions will employ large arrays of multiplexed transition-edge-sensor (TES) bolometers. Such instruments must contend with the high flux of cosmic rays beyond our atmosphere that induce ‘glitches’ in bolometer data, which posed a challenge to data analysis from the Planck bolometers. Future instruments will face the additional challenges of shared substrate wafers and multiplexed readout wiring. Here, we explore the susceptibility of modern TES arrays to the cosmic ray environment of space using two data sets: the 2015 long-duration balloon flight of the SPIDER cosmic microwave background polarimeter, and a laboratory exposure of SPIDER flight hardware to radioactive sources. We find manageable glitch rates and short glitch durations, leading to minimal effect on SPIDER analysis. We constrain energy propagation within the substrate through a study of multi-detector coincidences and give a preliminary look at pulse shapes in laboratory data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computer Science Research Needs for Parallel Discrete Event Simulation (PDES)

Historically, scientific computing efforts have demonstrated the clear need for, and effective use of, supercomputing with traditional time-stepped simulations. Nevertheless, there are several areas in the mission spaces of the U.S. Department of Energy and other agencies waiting to tap advanced computing research using a different, discrete event style of modeling, simulation, and analysis. These span a wide spectrum of applications including energy grid resilience, urban planning and policy, transportation science, building technologies, emergency response and planning, environmental impact analysis, computational epidemiology, Internet communications, cyber security, and cyber-physical systems, to name only a few. Even within traditional scientific applications, the role of discrete event modes of execution is increasing in the form of new event-based mathematical solvers such as quantized state integration methods and discrete-continuous hybrid system solvers. Co-design of advanced supercomputing hardware systems is another area that exploits discrete event simulation at its core for effective analyses. Complex systems, entity behaviors and interconnections play a significant role in all these applications, which are mapped to large-scale models with discrete event formulations. To make advancements in all the aforementioned scientific areas, many technical aspects need to be more thoroughly studied and deeply understood in parallel discrete event simulation (PDES). The unique dynamics inherent in a discrete event modeling approach, by their very nature, intersect and influence the entire stack of the computing system, including (a) the unique nature of the instruction sets exercised in PDES workloads without a predominance of high-precision floating point operations, (b) virtual time-constrained multi-threaded execution of many logical processes per processor, (c) extremely variable and difficult to predict network traffic characteristics, (d) interfaces and inter-dependencies with machine learning and artificial intelligence codes at higher software layers, and (e) highly challenging load balancing needs, especially in effectively accounting for accelerated/extremely heterogeneous computing in current and future high-performance computing systems. Efficient and accurate parallel execution of PDES workloads is also dominated by challenges in dealing with their asynchronous concurrency fundamentally present at the model level. Conservative synchronization, optimistic/speculative synchronization, and their hybrid schemes open new questions in fundamental computer science with respect to reversibility of computation and prediction (lookahead) of behaviors inherent within model codes. On the implementation front, there are relatively few scalable, general-purpose parallel discrete event simulators in the world, and even fewer have been studied on emerging hardware platforms. To enable scientific advances using PDES, the research needs in computer science must also be pursued and met in the intersection of the algorithmic and hardware-aware aspects of scalable PDES engines. This report is aimed at capturing a computer science-oriented view of this important area of research in PDES, presenting a sample of important applications with their inherent discrete event technology elements. Needs are outlined in core areas of parallel discrete event research as well as cross-cutting directions in computer science research that positively impact scientific advancements across several important application areas. A selection of priority research opportunities in advanced computing for PDES is identified to serve as reference for key research topics and their order of importance for scientific advancements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computer Science Research Needs for Parallel Discrete Event Simulation (PDES)

Historically, scientific computing efforts have demonstrated the clear need for, and effective use of, supercomputing with traditional time-stepped simulations. Nevertheless, there are several areas in the mission spaces of the U.S. Department of Energy and other agencies waiting to tap advanced computing research using a different, discrete event style of modeling, simulation, and analysis. These span a wide spectrum of applications including energy grid resilience, urban planning and policy, transportation science, building technologies, emergency response and planning, environmental impact analysis, computational epidemiology, Internet communications, cyber security, and cyber-physical systems, to name only a few. Even within traditional scientific applications, the role of discrete event modes of execution is increasing in the form of new event-based mathematical solvers such as quantized state integration methods and discrete-continuous hybrid system solvers. Co-design of advanced supercomputing hardware systems is another area that exploits discrete event simulation at its core for effective analyses. Complex systems, entity behaviors and interconnections play a significant role in all these applications, which are mapped to large-scale models with discrete event formulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Non-propagating structures and propagating waves in solar wind turbulence revealed by simulations and observations

Structures and waves are common features of solar wind turbulence at various scales. The interplay between structures and waves is important for processes such as the turbulent energy cascade, plasma heating, and particle scattering. Our understanding of turbulence has been advanced by not only new space missions and numerical simulations, but also techniques that have been developed to interpret the rapidly growing turbulence data. We review basic models of turbulence with a specific focus on the analysis methods for understanding magnetic structures and waves. MHD and kinetic waves in single-spacecraft time series measurements can be identified through mode decomposition or their characteristic polarization signatures. The structures in this paper are considered as zero-frequency, non-propagating or convected modes embedded in the solar wind. The synergy between observations and simulations is most evident in the application of spatial-temporal analysis to multi-spacecraft observation and turbulence simulations. The spatial-temporal analysis has greatly improved our understanding of structures and waves in turbulence. We conclude by discussing prospects for future research.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Achievements and Lessons Learned From Successful Small Satellite Missions for Space Weather‐Oriented Research

Abstract When the first CubeSats were launched nearly two decades ago, few people believed that the miniature satellites would likely prove to be a useful scientific tool. Skeptics abounded. However, the last decade has seen the highly successful implementation of space missions that make creative and innovative use of fast‐advancing CubeSat and small satellite technology to carry out important science experiments and missions. Several projects now have used CubeSats to obtain first‐of‐their‐kind observations and findings that have formed the basis for high‐profile engineering and science publications, thereby establishing without doubt the scientific value and broad utility of CubeSats. In this paper, we describe recent achievements and lessons learned from a representative selection of successful CubeSat missions with a space weather focus. We conclude that these missions were successful in part because their limited resources promoted not only mission focus but also appropriate risk‐taking for comparatively high science return. Quantitative analysis of refereed publications from these CubeSat missions and several larger missions reveals that mission outcome metrics compare favorably when publication number is normalized by mission cost or if expressed as a weighted net scientific impact of all mission publications.

Spence, Harlan E.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A Machine Learning Model

The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120–600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗