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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Data for: A hybrid biophysical-machine learning framework for diurnal surface energy flux estimation using proximal sensing

Thermal-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal datasets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for specific surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of an ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81-0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46-0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical – machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

Agricultural Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Hybrid Biophysical‐Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy ( LE ) and sensible heat ( H ) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R 2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R 2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

evapotranspiration↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cross-Modal Guidance for Fast Diffusion-Based Computed Tomography

Diffusion models have emerged as powerful priors for solving inverse problems in computed tomography (CT). In certain applications, such as neutron CT, it can be expensive to collect large amounts of measurements even for a single scan leading to sparse data sets from which it is challenging to obtain high quality reconstructions even with diffusion models. One strategy to mitigate this challenge is to leverage a complementary, easily available imaging modality; however, such approaches typically require retraining the diffusion model with large datasets. In this work, we propose incorporating an additional modality without retraining the diffusion prior, enabling accelerated imaging of costly modalities. We further examine the impact of imperfect side modalities on cross-modal guidance. Our method is evaluated on sparse-view neutron computed tomography, where reconstruction quality is substantially improved by incorporating X-ray computed tomography of the same samples.

Efimov, Timofey [ORNL] (ORCID:000900090098471X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying spatial and vertical variations in soil C:N relationships in permafrost-affected landscapes

Permafrost regions are experiencing rapid changes that affect carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles, with implications for vegetation dynamics and gas exchanges with the atmosphere. Soil C:N ratio is a key indicator of organic matter quality, yet spatial estimates of N stocks and C:N ratios lag behind those for C. We used quantile regression forests to compare direct and indirect digital soil mapping approaches for predicting soil C:N ratios at 0–30, 30–60, and 60–100 cm depths across a latitudinal transect in Alaska. The indirect approach – deriving C:N from separately predicted C and N stocks – outperformed direct mapping for the surface layer (0–30 cm), while direct mapping was marginally better at greater depths. However, prediction accuracy decreased with depth for both methods. Temperature and topography were the most important predictors. Both approaches overestimated low and underestimated high C:N ratios, with direct mapping showing greater bias. Our results underscore the challenges of modeling C:N ratios in heterogeneous, data-sparse permafrost soils, but also suggest that indirect mapping holds promise if supported by more extensive datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated top-down process and voxel-based microstructure modeling for Ti-6Al-4V in laser wire direct energy deposition process

Laser-wire metal additive manufacturing (AM) is one of the ideal direct energy deposition (DED) processes for creating large-scale parts with a medium level of complexity. However, the DED process involves complex thermal signatures and wide length scales making the fabrication of realistic AM components and part qualification often reliant on experimental trial-and-error optimization. While experimental measurements over the full volume of a part are valuable and necessary, measuring the entire area of a part is significantly laborious and practically infeasible, particularly for large parts in terms of cost and rapid qualification. Therefore, in this work, we developed an effective thermal and microstructure modeling framework based on the Johnson–Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov (JMAK) and Koistinen & Marburger (KM) models through a top-down approach that considers plate distortion-affected thermal profiles. A voxel-by-voxel simulation method is used to predict individual phase fractions of Ti-6Al-4 V. The predicted results were validated through detailed metallurgical measurements. A combined voxel-by-voxel approach with a sparse data reconstruction technique produced a near-perfect reconstruction of the original data. This approach anticipates a significant reduction in data points and computation time and resources. Lastly, we conclude with potential extensions of this work to other modeling efforts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

GenAI4UQ: A software for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification using conditional generative AI

We introduce GenAI4UQ, a software package for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification in model calibration, parameter estimation, and ensemble forecasting. GenAI4UQ leverages a generative AI-based conditional modeling framework to address limitations of traditional inverse modeling techniques, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. By replacing computationally intensive iterative processes with a direct, learned mapping, GenAI4UQ enables efficient calibration of input parameters and generation of predictions directly from observations. The software supports rapid ensemble forecasting with robust uncertainty quantification while maintaining computational and storage efficiency. Built-in auto-tuning of hyperparameters simplifies model training, ensuring accessibility for users with varying expertise. Its versatile conditional generative framework is applicable across diverse scientific domains. While GenAI4UQ offers significant advantages in flexibility and efficiency, users should interpret its uncertainty estimates with caution in data-sparse scenarios, as the model may overestimate uncertainty—an effect common to all surrogate-based approaches including MCMC with surrogate models. Despite this, GenAI4UQ transforms inverse modeling by providing a fast, reliable, and user-friendly solution. It empowers researchers and practitioners to quickly estimate parameter distributions and generate model predictions for new observations, facilitating efficient decision-making and advancing the state of uncertainty quantification in computational modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

APSO-enhanced algebraic derivative estimation approach for real-time traffic flow prediction on critical road sections during wildfire evacuation

In rapid-onset disaster scenarios such as wildfires, evacuation traffic often significantly deviates from historical patterns, rendering conventional data-driven forecasting methods less effective. To address this challenge, we propose an improved algebraic derivative estimation (ADE) incorporating particle swarm optimization (PSO) for real-time traffic flow prediction. Our approach dynamically adjusts the ADE prediction time window at each step by minimizing a cost function based on the mean and variance of accumulated forecasting errors within the window, thereby balancing bias and variability. We evaluate the method using traffic data from the January 2025 California wildfires, focusing on key road segments critical for large-scale evacuations. The results demonstrate that our approach surpasses established machine learning and deep learning models—XGBoost, LSTM, and GRU—in predictive accuracy and maintains high computational efficiency. Notably, the proposed method eliminates the need for offline model training. Moreover, rapid PSO-based tuning enables real-time deployment, which provides a crucial advantage in scenarios where evacuation timings and road closures change dynamically. In conclusion, these findings highlight the benefits of the PSO-enhanced ADE framework for emergency traffic management, where rapid, data-sparse forecasts are essential for effective evacuation planning.

Algebraic derivative estimation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large spatiotemporal variability in aerosol properties over central Argentina during the CACTI field campaign

Abstract. Few field campaigns with extensive aerosol measurements have been conducted over continental areas in the Southern Hemisphere. To address this data gap and better understand the interactions of convective clouds and the surrounding environment, extensive in situ and remote sensing measurements were collected during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign conducted between October 2018 and April 2019 over the Sierras de Córdoba range of central Argentina. This study describes measurements of aerosol number, size, composition, mixing state, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) collected on the ground and from a research aircraft during 7 weeks of the campaign. Large spatial and multiday variations in aerosol number, size, composition, and CCN were observed due to transport from upwind sources controlled by mesoscale to synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. Large vertical wind shears, back trajectories, single-particle measurements, and chemical transport model predictions indicate that different types of emissions and source regions, including biogenic emissions and biomass burning from the Amazon and anthropogenic emissions from Chile and eastern Argentina, contribute to aerosols observed during CACTI. Repeated aircraft measurements near the boundary layer top reveal strong spatial and temporal variations in CCN and demonstrate that understanding the complex co-variability of aerosol properties and clouds is critical to quantify the impact of aerosol–cloud interactions. In addition to quantifying aerosol properties in this data-sparse region, these measurements will be valuable to evaluate predictions over the midlatitudes of South America and improve parameterized aerosol processes in local, regional, and global models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pulse: An Outlier Sensitive Downsampling Algorithm For Timeseries Data

Pulse is a downsampling algorithm for timeseries data. Frequently datasets become so large that visualization tools and web browsers cannot effectively render graphics due to memory constraints. Downsampling algorithms are commonly applied to minimize the quantity of data required to visualize important features or trends in the data, but some datasets are composed by distinct enough features and trends that most existing downsampling algorithms fail to preserve them. Pule was developed to downsample timeseries data for galvanostatic stack test data at the Idaho National Laboratory. These datasets were composed by approximately 4 million records, most of them being extremely uniform. However, during relatively brief time periods when the stack test changes state, for example when the test article is powered on, or a load is added, the data produce sparse asymptotes. No existing downsampling algorithm was capable of preserving the sparse asymptotes in electrolysis stack test data. Instead, we develop a downsampling algorithm that preserves important outliers in data, and otherwise aggressively downsamples uniform data. The algorithm has applications in other domains like seismology, in the measurement of earthquakes, or astronomy, in the measurement of quasars or transit photometry.

Woodruff, Nathan [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗
DOE OSTI2025

An open-access simulated earthquake ground-motion database for an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region

Comprehensive understanding of earthquake ground motions, particularly in the near-fault region of large-magnitude events, is limited by gaps in strong-motion data. This challenge is prominent in areas with high seismic hazard but infrequent large earthquakes where data is sparse and difficult to interpret. These data limitations lead to uncertainties in the development of site-specific ground motions, which are crucial for engineering risk assessments. To address these challenges, physics-based regional-scale ground-motion simulations have been developed. With the emergence of exaflop-scale computing ecosystems, it is now possible to simulate regional earthquake processes at unprecedented fidelity and generate the large number of fault rupture realizations necessary to characterize both intra- and inter-event ground-motion variability. This article introduces a new database of simulated earthquake ground motions, created for applications in earthquake engineering, earthquake planning, and emergency response. The inaugural version of the database features simulated ground motions for a magnitude 7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR), using the EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) simulation framework and the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model. The aim is to provide high-fidelity, spatially dense, three-component motions generated on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) newest generation of graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated supercomputers. These motions are being made openly available to the engineering, scientific, and disaster planning communities. In addition, this work develops protocols for the efficient dissemination of these large data sets and emphasizes community engagement to build confidence in their application. This article discusses the methodology behind the data, underlying software verification and validation, scalable data management, and a user interface for data access. The goal is to facilitate widespread use and elicit expert feedback to maximize the utility and exploitation of simulated motions. While the initial focus is on the San Francisco Region, simulations for additional regions will be added as the DOE program progresses.

Simulated ground-motion database↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inferring demographic and selective histories from population genomic data using a 2-step approach in species with coding-sparse genomes: an application to human data

Abstract The demographic history of a population, and the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of newly arising mutations in functional genomic regions, are fundamental factors dictating both genetic variation and evolutionary trajectories. Although both demographic and DFE inference has been performed extensively in humans, these approaches have generally either been limited to simple demographic models involving a single population, or, where a complex population history has been inferred, without accounting for the potentially confounding effects of selection at linked sites. Taking advantage of the coding-sparse nature of the genome, we propose a 2-step approach in which coalescent simulations are first used to infer a complex multi-population demographic model, utilizing large non-functional regions that are likely free from the effects of background selection. We then use forward-in-time simulations to perform DFE inference in functional regions, conditional on the complex demography inferred and utilizing expected background selection effects in the estimation procedure. Throughout, recombination and mutation rate maps were used to account for the underlying empirical rate heterogeneity across the human genome. Importantly, within this framework it is possible to utilize and fit multiple aspects of the data, and this inference scheme represents a generalized approach for such large-scale inference in species with coding-sparse genomes.

Soni, Vivak (ORCID:0000000294969562)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Closures and Assimilation for Stiff Multiscale Random Dynamics

Here, we introduce a data-driven and physics-informed framework for propagating uncertainty in stiff, multiscale random ordinary differential equations (RODEs) driven by correlated (colored) noise. Unlike systems subjected to Gaussian white noise, a deterministic equation for the joint probability density function (PDF) of RODE state variables does not exist in closed form. Moreover, such an equation would require as many phase-space variables as there are states in the RODE system. To alleviate this curse of dimensionality, we instead derive exact, albeit unclosed, reduced-order PDF (RoPDF) equations for low-dimensional observables/quantities of interest. The unclosed terms take the form of state-dependent conditional expectations, which are directly estimated from data at sparse observation times. However, for systems exhibiting stiff, multiscale dynamics, data sparsity introduces regression discrepancies that compound during RoPDF evolution. This is overcome by introducing a kinetic-like defect term to the RoPDF equation, which is learned by assimilating in sparse, low-fidelity RoPDF estimates. Two assimilation methods are considered, namely nudging and deep neural networks, which are successfully tested against Monte Carlo simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are identifying hidden geothermal resources in the USA and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many non-obvious processes and parameters could characterize geothermal resources and could control the ultimate energy potential of geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize geothermal resources, but this data is sparse and multi-scale. This has hindered attempts to leverage the datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) give promise to overcome these issues. Modern ML methods and tools can (1) analyze large datasets, (2) assimilate model ensembles that include a multitude of inputs and outputs, (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning between sites with different data quality, (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures from field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. In this work, we implement ML-based geothermal exploration and an enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tool to achieve the above goals. Our exploration tool is GeoThermalCloud (GTC) EGS design tool is GeoDT-ML. GTC (github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. It enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. GeoDT-ML (github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/) adds coupling to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git) for stochastic EGS design optimization and performance prediction. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. Contributors to this effort include LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synthetic method of analogues for emerging infectious disease forecasting

The Method of Analogues (MOA) has gained popularity in the past decade for infectious disease forecasting due to its non-parametric nature. In MOA, the local behavior observed in a time series is matched to the local behaviors of several historical time series. The known values that directly follow the historical time series that best match the observed time series are used to calculate a forecast. This non-parametric approach leverages historical trends to produce forecasts without extensive parameterization, making it highly adaptable. However, MOA is limited in scenarios where historical data is sparse. This limitation was particularly evident during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, where the emerging global epidemic had little-to-no historical data. In this work, we propose a new method inspired by MOA, called the Synthetic Method of Analogues (sMOA). sMOA replaces historical disease data with a library of synthetic data that describe a broad range of possible disease trends. This model circumvents the need to estimate explicit parameter values by instead matching segments of ongoing time series data to a comprehensive library of synthetically generated segments of time series data. We demonstrate that sMOA has competitive performance with state-of-the-art infectious disease forecasting models, out-performing 78% of models from the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub in terms of averaged Mean Absolute Error and 76% of models from the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub in terms of averaged Weighted Interval Score. Additionally, we introduce a novel uncertainty quantification methodology designed for the onset of emerging epidemics. Developing versatile approaches that do not rely on historical data and can maintain high accuracy in the face of novel pandemics is critical for enhancing public health decision-making and strengthening preparedness for future outbreaks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Expanding the Domain of Applicability of Machine Learning Models with Limited Data for Drug Property Prediction

Accurate machine learning models for predicting small molecule interactions with biological targets are essential for therapeutic discovery, biothreat response, and computational drug design, but their performance is often limited for understudied targets with sparse experimental data. To address this challenge, we developed and evaluated methods to improve molecular property prediction under low-data conditions, using the NimA-related kinase (NEK) family as a proof-of-concept. This work focused on two complementary goals within the ATOM Modeling PipeLine (AMPL) and the Generative Molecular Design (GMD) loop: expanding model applicability through transfer learning, representation learning, feature scaling, sampling strategies, and active-learning-inspired compound selection; and enabling efficient virtual screening to prioritize compounds that balance predicted activity, design objectives, and synthetic accessibility.

organic↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nucleon axial-vector form factor and radius from radiatively corrected antineutrino scattering data

The nucleon axial-vector form factor, 𝐺 𝐴 , is critical to determine the electroweak interactions of leptons with nucleons. Important examples of processes influenced by 𝐺 𝐴 are elastic (anti)neutrino-nucleon scattering and muon capture by the proton. Sparse experimental data results in a large uncertainty on the momentum dependence of 𝐺 𝐴 and has motivated the consideration of new experimental probes and first-principles lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) evaluations. The comparison of new and precise theoretical predictions for 𝐺 𝐴 with future experimental data necessitates the application of radiative corrections to experimentally observable processes. We apply these corrections in the extraction of 𝐺 𝐴 and the associated axial-vector radius from the recent MINERvA antineutrino-hydrogen data, compare the effects from radiative corrections to other uncertainties in neutrino scattering experiments, and discuss the comparison of lattice QCD evaluations to experimental measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unlocking hidden information in sparse small-angle neutron scattering measurements

Hypothesis Small-Angle Neutron Scattering (SANS) is a powerful technique for studying soft matter systems such as colloids, polymers, and lyotropic phases, providing nanoscale structural insights. However, its effectiveness is limited by low neutron flux, leading to long acquisition times and noisy data. Here, we hypothesize that Bayesian statistical inference using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) can reconstruct high-fidelity scattering data from sparse measurements by leveraging intensity smoothness and continuity. Experiments and Simulations The method was benchmarked computationally and validated through SANS experiments on various soft matter systems, including wormlike micelles, colloidal suspensions, polymeric structures, and lyotropic phases. GPR-based inference was applied to both experimental and synthetic data to evaluate its effectiveness in noise reduction and intensity reconstruction. Findings GPR significantly enhances SANS data quality and therefore reducing measurement times by up to two orders of magnitude. This cost-effective approach maximizes experimental efficiency, enabling high-throughput studies and real-time monitoring of dynamic systems. It is particularly beneficial for weakly scattering and time-sensitive studies. Beyond SANS, this framework applies to other low-SNR techniques, including laboratory-based small-angle X-ray scattering and various dynamical scattering methods. Furthermore, it offers transformative potential for compact neutron sources, enhancing their viability for structural analysis in resource-limited settings.

Small angle neutron scattering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Derivation of physical equations for high-speed laser welding using large language models

It is challenging to formulate complex physical phenomena that occur in a manufacturing process, particularly when the available data are limited, rendering conventional data-driven approaches ineffective. This study aims to predict humping onset in high-speed laser welding by introducing a novel framework, namely text-to-equations generative pre-trained transformer (T2EGPT). This method leverages the capabilities of large language models (LLMs), in combination with sparse experimental data and enriched literature data, to derive an interpretable and generalizable equation for predicting humping initiation. By capturing key correlations among physical parameters, T2EGPT generates a compact and dimensionless expression that accurately predicts hump formation. The equation reveals that humping arises from the interplay between inertia-driven backward melt flow and capillary-driven surface stabilization, where inertial forces drive molten metal backward and capillary forces resist surface deformation. Furthermore, compared to traditional data-driven models, T2EGPT demonstrates enhanced predictive accuracy and cross-material transferability. More broadly, this study highlights the potential of LLMs to integrate textual information with data-driven discovery, enabling the extraction of physical laws in data-scarce scientific domains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗