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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Carbon Storage Forecasting via Cross-Geology Transfer Learning

Rapid simulation of the spatiotemporal evolution of pressure & saturation for SACROC 1. Neural operator was trained on only 153 simulation runs 2. Trained to account for heterogeneity and variations/uncertainties in engineering, fluids, and geology 3. Pressure forecast has less than 1% error 4. Saturation forecast has less than 2% error 5. Traditional simulator takes 1 hour for a single scenario, while neural operator takes less than 1 minute. Rapid simulation of the spatiotemporal evolution of pressure & saturation for IBDP 1. Transfer Learning was implemented on the SACROC-based Neural Operator that was trained on only 20 simulation runs for IBDP Site 2. SACROC and IBDP Sites have several significant differences in geology and engineering parameters. 3. Pressure forecast has less than 5 psi error 4. Saturation forecast has less than 7% error 5. Traditional simulator takes 1 hour for a single scenario, while neural operator takes less than 1 minute and only 20 simulations for training/validation.

Misra, Siddharth↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Application of the Global Precipitation Forecast dataset for Global Landslide Forecasting System

Landslides are extremely damaging, pervasive and cause fatalities and economic impacts. Extreme rainfall events, coupled with inopportune surface conditions, are the primary triggers of landslides around the world. Forecasting landslide events represent an area of open research. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model has been created that provides near real-time dynamic landslide characterization using Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on prediction of landslides into future. This study considers how global precipitation forecast data compares to satellite rainfall at different spatiotemporal scales and outlines the potential for its use in landslide hazard prediction/forecasting system. NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-Forecast model assimilates new observations every 6 hours, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. The GEOS-Forecast model is initialized at 00 UTC and is evaluated with IMERG Early, using Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) precipitation product as a reference over contiguous United States (CONUS). Categorical and continuous statistics along with probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions are considered to assess the performance of the precipitation products, with a focus on landslide hotspots. Seasonality appears to influence the performance of both the GEOS-Forecast and IMERG Early product. Moreover, the global comparison between the GEOS-Forecast and IMERG Early is carried out in terms of percentile difference, correlation, and bias maps. For extreme rainfall events in regions such as Mekong, Colombia, and Tajikistan, GEOS-Forecast appears to resolve high rainfall relative to IMERG Early more frequently. Validation over landslide points reveal that for 24hr rainfall accumulations > 100mm, GEOS-Forecast and IMERG coincide. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG Early precipitation matches more closely for tropical cyclones than other types of storms. Overall, the performance varies with respect to location, rainfall intensities, and type of precipitation events.

Sana Khan↗
DOE OSTI2022

FAIRification, Quality Assessment, and Missingness Pattern Discovery for Spatiotemporal Photovoltaic Data

The growth of the photovoltaic market has pushed the demand for power forecasting and performance evaluation for a huge population of PV power plants. Many of these power plants have spatiotemporal coherence that can be utilized for improving model accuracy. We have demonstrated in this paper the FAIRification of spatiotemporal PV time series data. Through the creation of a solar power plant ontology, we propose standards for the naming and structure of metadata used to describe the data from these power plants. Using the structure from this ontology, we have developed both R and Python packages for the automation of the FAIRification process. Going further, we have also developed an R package that automates the analysis of the quality of a data set through the designation of letter grades. To solve the issue of data missingness, we propose the use of St-GNN autoencoders to detect and impute missing values from a data set by utilizing data from power plants nearby.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Bayesian Inference at Extreme Scale: A Digital Twin for Tsunami Early Warning Applied to the Cascadia Subduction Zone

We present a Bayesian inversion-based digital twin that employs acoustic pressure data from seafloor sensors, along with 3D coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion in real time and forecast tsunami propagation toward coastlines for early warning with quantified uncertainties. Our target is the Cascadia subduction zone, with one billion parameters. Computing the posterior mean alone would require 50 years on a 512 GPU machine. Instead, exploiting the shift invariance of the parameter-to-observable map and devising novel parallel algorithms, we induce a fast offline–online decomposition. The offline component requires just one adjoint wave propagation per sensor; using MFEM, we scale this part of the computation to the full El Capitan system (43,520 GPUs) with 92% weak parallel efficiency. Moreover, given real-time data, the online component exactly solves the Bayesian inverse and forecasting problems in 0.2 seconds on a modest GPU system, a ten-billion-fold speedup.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2017

Stratospheric Instrusion Catalog: A 10-Year Compilation of Events Identified by using TRACK with NASA's MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Stratospheric intrusions "the introduction of ozone-rich stratospheric air into the troposphere" have been linked with surface ozone air quality exceedances, especially at the high elevations in the western USA in springtime. However, the impact of stratospheric intrusions in the remaining seasons and over the rest of the USA is less clear. A new approach to the study of stratospheric intrusions uses NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) model and assimilation products with an objective feature tracking algorithm to investigate the atmospheric dynamics that generate stratospheric intrusions and the different mechanisms through which stratospheric intrusions may influence tropospheric chemistry and surface air quality seasonally over both the western and the eastern USA. A catalog of stratospheric intrusions identified in the MERRA-2 reanalysis was produced for the period 2004-2015 and validated against surface ozone observations (focusing on those which exceed the national air quality standard) and a recent data set of stratospheric intrusion-influenced air quality exceedance flags from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Considering not all ozone exceedances have been flagged by the EPA, a collection of stratospheric intrusions can support air quality agencies for more rapid identification of the impact of stratospheric air on surface ozone and demonstrates that future operational analyses may aid in forecasting such events. An analysis of the spatiotemporal variability of stratospheric intrusions over the continental US was performed, and while the spring over the western USA does exhibit the largest number of stratospheric intrusions affecting the lower troposphere, the number of intrusions in the remaining seasons and over the eastern USA is sizable. By focusing on the major modes of variability that influence weather in the USA, such as the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection index, predicative meteorological patterns associated with stratospheric intrusions and their regional effects on tropospheric ozone were identified. Improved understanding of the connections between large-scale climate variability and local-scale dynamically-driven air quality events may support improved seasonal prediction of such events.

PN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Empowering Machine Learning Forecasting of Labquake Using Event‐Based Features and Clustering Characteristics

Abstract Following recent advances of machine learning (ML), we present a novel approach to extract spatiotemporal seismo‐mechanical features from Acoustic Emission (AE) catalogs to empower ML‐based forecasting. The AE data were recorded during laboratory stick‐slip experiments on granite samples cut by rough faults. Based on the features computed for a past time window, a random forest (RF) classifier is used to forecast the occurrence of a large magnitude event ( M AE > 3.5) in the next time window. Event‐based features allow us to associate informative time‐space characteristics to each feature and nearest‐neighbor clustering analysis enables us to separate background and clustered seismicity and train individual models. The results show that the separation of AEs enhances the forecasting accuracy from 73.2% for the entire catalog up to 82.1% and 89.0% if background and clustered events are used separately. The presented new approach may be upscaled for applications to forecast tectonic earthquakes.

Karimpouli, Sadegh↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explore Spatio‐Temporal Learning of Large Sample Hydrology Using Graph Neural Networks

Abstract Streamflow forecasting over gauged and ungauged basins play a vital role in water resources planning, especially under the changing climate. Increased availability of large sample hydrology data sets, together with recent advances in deep learning techniques, has presented new opportunities to explore temporal and spatial patterns in hydrological signatures for improving streamflow forecasting. The purpose of this study is to adapt and benchmark several state‐of‐the‐art graph neural network (GNN) architectures, including ChebNet, Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), and GraphWaveNet, for end‐to‐end graph learning. We explicitly represent river basins as nodes in a graph, learn the spatiotemporal nodal dependencies, and then use the learned relations to predict streamflow simultaneously across all nodes in the graph. The efficacy of the developed GNN models is investigated using the Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large‐sample Studies (CAMELS) data set under two settings, fixed graph topology (transductive learning), and variable graph topology (inductive learning), with the latter applicable to prediction in ungauged basins (PUB). Results indicate that GNNs are generally robust and computationally efficient, achieving similar or better performance than a baseline model trained using the long short‐term memory (LSTM) network. Further analyses are conducted to interpret the graph learning process at the edge and node levels and to investigate the effect of different model configurations. We conclude that graph learning constitutes a viable machine learning‐based method for aggregating spatiotemporal information from a multitude of sources for streamflow forecasting

Sun, Alexander Y.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Autoregressive long-horizon prediction of plasma edge dynamics *

Accurate modeling of scrape-off layer (SOL) and divertor-edge dynamics is vital for designing plasma-facing components in fusion devices. High-fidelity edge fluid/neutral codes such as SOLPS-ITER capture SOL physics with high accuracy, but their computational cost limits broad parameter scans and long transient studies. We present transformer-based, autoregressive surrogates for efficient prediction of 2D, time-dependent plasma edge state fields. Trained on SOLPS-ITER spatiotemporal data for the KSTAR tokamak, the surrogates forecast electron temperature, electron density, and radiated power over extended horizons. We evaluate model variants trained with increasing autoregressive horizons (1–100 steps) on short- and long-horizon prediction tasks. Longer-horizon training systematically improves rollout stability and mitigates error accumulation, enabling stable predictions over hundreds to thousands of steps and reproducing key dynamical features such as the motion of high-radiation regions. Measured end-to-end wall-clock times show the surrogate is orders of magnitude faster than SOLPS-ITER, enabling rapid parameter exploration. Prediction accuracy degrades when the surrogate enters physical regimes not represented in the training dataset, motivating future work on data enrichment and physics-informed constraints. Overall, this approach provides a fast, accurate surrogate for computationally intensive plasma edge simulations, supporting rapid scenario exploration, control-oriented studies, and progress toward real-time applications in fusion devices.

autoregressive deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2026

Short‐Term Hourly Weather Forecasting Using PredRNN With Image Preprocessing

Global weather forecast models are vital tools with numerous applications, including public safety, agriculture, and transportation. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning (DL) have shown the potential to enhance weather forecasting accuracy and speed. In this study, we developed a short-term hourly weather forecast framework with a wavelet transform function for data preprocessing and a spatiotemporal DL model, PredRNN, for predicting five surface atmospheric variables, including wind speed and direction, mean sea level pressure (MSLP), temperature, and precipitation. The framework demonstrated promising results. It produces global forecasts at 0.25° (∼25 km) with a 1-day lead time RMSE of 1.8 m/s for wind components, 180 Pa for MSLP, and 1.8 K for temperature. Although our model does not surpass state-of-the-art AI weather forecast models across all metrics, it outperforms these models in precipitation forecasting and wind prediction at short lead times and achieves comparable accuracy for MSLP. Its native hourly forecasting capability, together with training on widely accessible GPU hardware, contributes meaningfully to the advancement of accessible DL weather forecasting methods. Our work highlights the importance of integrating temporal components and data transformation techniques to improve the predictability and accuracy of weather forecasts.

Tran, Hoang [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correcting NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Wind Resource Data for Grid Integration Applications [Slides]

Many weather years of high-quality wind data are widely accepted in the grid integration community to be important for studying wind energy technical potential, energy system operations, and grid resilience. NREL makes high-quality wind and solar resource data available. NREL's Grid-Atmosphere workshop (March 2024) identified NREL National Solar Radiation Database as widely used in grid integration modeling, but there is less agreement on commonly used wind datasets. One important factor identified by ESIG's 2023 report 'Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems' for gold standard wind data is regular updates. To address the need for regular updates, NREL's team can now process all currently available and regularly updated High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) outputs. HRRR is an hourly-updated operational forecast product produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Dowell et al., 2022). One barrier to NREL using HRRR is systematic bias and consistency with NREL's existing wind datasets (e.g. WIND Toolkit, 'WTK') across weather years. To address this barrier, we show that the HRRR can be interpolated and bias-corrected to be consistent with NRE's existing datasets. We call the new dataset BC-HRRR (bias-corrected HRRR). As with historical datasets like the WTK, BC-HRRR is intended for use in grid integration modeling (e.g., capacity expansion, production cost, and resource adequacy modeling). BC-HRRR's (2015-present) consistency with WTK (2007-2013) allows NREL to extend internal grid integration tooling with 15+ weather years of wind data with low-overhead extensibility to future years as they are made available by NOAA. The rest of this slide deck documents the BC-HRRR processing methods, validation, and its implications for intended use.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

FAIRification, Quality Assessment, and Missingness Pattern Discovery for Spatiotemporal Photovoltaic Data

The ongoing growth of the photovoltaic market has pushed the demand for power forecasting and performance evaluation for a huge population of PV power plants. Through access to a large number of time series data sets from different power plants, we have found common issues that impede the modeling process. Namely, the time series data are hard to transfer between groups due to differences in variable nomenclature, and the quality of the data sets can vary. We address the issue of variable nomenclature by FAIRifying spatiotemporal PV time series data. Through the creation of a solar power plant ontology, we propose standards for the naming and structure of metadata used to describe the data from these power plants. Using the structure from this ontology, we have developed both R and Python packages for the automation of the FAIRification process. We have also developed an R package that automates the analysis of the quality of a data set through the designation of letter grades. With access to large time series data sets across many power plants, we can utilize spatiotemporal coherence between the sites in order to improve the quality of our data. To solve the issue of data missingness, we propose the use of Spatiotemporal-GNN autoencoders to detect and impute missing values from a data set by utilizing data from power plants nearby.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Future Solar Irradiance Projections Using the NSRDB

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted to understand potential impacts of future climate change in renewable generation on the power sector. Climate model projection has been recognized by the renewable energy community as a useful data set to analyze the impacts of future climate change on renewable resources. However, future climate projections generated from general circulation models (GCMs) contain inherent biases that need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. In addition, the coarse spatiotemporal resolution of GCMs needs to be improved for regional climate studies. In this work, we develop statistical methods to downscale future projections of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in a computationally efficient way. Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that correct bias of climate projection of GHI and downscale the future GHI projection from daily-scale to hourly-scale. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate the statistical models and validate the downscaled GHI projections across the contiguous United State (CONUS). Preliminary results show that the statistical approach efficiently downscales climate projections of GHI with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34 % and nRMSE of 46% calculated against NSRDB for CONUS. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to create high-resolution climate data sets for solar energy applications.

analytical models↗
DOE OSTI2020

Employing Molecular Phylodynamic Methods to Identify and Forecast HIV Transmission Clusters in Public Health Settings: A Qualitative Study

Molecular HIV surveillance is a promising public health strategy for curbing the HIV epidemic. Clustering technologies used by health departments to date are limited in their ability to infer/forecast cluster growth trajectories. Resolution of the spatiotemporal dynamics of clusters, through phylodynamic and phylogeographic modelling, is one potential strategy to develop a forecasting tool; however, the projected utility of this approach needs assessment. Prior to incorporating novel phylodynamic-based molecular surveillance tools, we sought to identify possible issues related to their feasibility, acceptability, interpretation, and utility. Qualitative data were collected via focus groups among field experts (n = 17, 52.9% female) using semi-structured, open-ended questions. Data were coded using an iterative process, first through the development of provisional themes and subthemes, followed by independent line-by-line coding by two coders. Most participants routinely used molecular methods for HIV surveillance. All agreed that linking molecular sequences to epidemiological data is important for improving HIV surveillance. We found that, in addition to methodological challenges, a variety of implementation barriers are expected in relation to the uptake of phylodynamic methods for HIV surveillance. The participants identified several opportunities to enhance current methods, as well as increase the usability and utility of promising works-in-progress.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine-Learning-Driven, Site-Specific Weather Forecasting for Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings: Preprint

Emerging grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) have great potential to provide much-needed demand flexibility to electric grids while fulfilling their own control targets by co-optimizing smart appliances, solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and energy storage at buildings. To enable the optimal operation of GEBs, site-specific weather information—such as temperature, solar irradiance, relative humidity, and wind speed—is crucial; however, this information is generally unavailable or expensive to obtain. This paper develops advanced machine learning methods to provide precise weather forecasts for individual building sites using readily available weather station data. Support vector regression and artificial neural networks have been employed to learn the spatiotemporal correlations between the weather conditions at nearby weather stations and the individual building site. The proposed site-specific weather forecasting methods have been validated using 1-year actual weather measurement data collected in the Denver metro area. Results show that the developed machine-learning-driven methods can accurately forecast the temperature at the target building site 1 hour ahead with mean absolute error less than 0.72°C and a 48% improvement over the persistence method. Site-specific weather forecasts will improve the understanding of the microclimate effect and its impact on building energy consumption. This information will drive efficiency upgrades and adjustments of building control strategies to improve energy savings and increase flexibility in building loads.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Independent and interactive effects of wet bulb globe temperature and air pollution exposures on suicide mortality

Background: Individual components of the ambient environment, such as temperature and air pollution, exist as part of a complex mixture and have been associated with suicide; however, their interactive effects remain poorly understood. This study examined the independent and interactive effects of wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) on suicide mortality. Methods: We identified 7,551 suicide cases in Utah, USA, from 2000 to 2016 and assigned exposure to daily maximum WBGT (sourced from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and PM 2.5 and NO 2 concentrations (sourced from a national spatiotemporal ensemble model) using decedent’s residential address at the time of death. A case-crossover design with conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the independent and interactive effects of WBGT max , PM 2.5 , and NO 2 on suicide. For exposure windows, we considered single days preceding suicide (lag 0 to 6) and their averages across preceding days (lag 0–1, 0–3, and 0–6). Analyses were stratified by season. Results: We identified a significant association between WBGT max and suicide across all seasons (odds ratio [OR] = 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01, 1.10; per 5 °C increase on lag 0–3 days). The associations were stronger in the warm season (March 22 to September 21), with ORs and 95% CIs ranging from 1.08 (1.02, 1.15) to 1.20 (1.10, 1.30) per 5 °C increase depending on the lag periods. We observed synergistic interactions between WBGT max and PM 2.5 and NO 2 in the warm season, associated with higher odds of suicide. The associations of WBGT max with suicide were most pronounced at high NO 2 levels. Conclusions: We found evidence of synergistic interactions between WBGT max and PM 2.5 and NO 2 on suicide in the warm season, emphasizing the need for considering the combined effects of heat stress and air pollution in suicide prevention strategies.

Fine particulate matter↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards physics-inspired data-driven weather forecasting: integrating data assimilation with a deep spatial-transformer-based U-NET in a case study with ERA5

Abstract. There is growing interest in data-driven weather prediction (DDWP), e.g., using convolutional neural networks such as U-NET that are trained on data from models or reanalysis. Here, we propose three components, inspired by physics, to integrate with commonly used DDWP models in order to improve their forecast accuracy. These components are (1) a deep spatial transformer added to the latent space of U-NET to capture rotation and scaling transformation in the latent space for spatiotemporal data, (2) a data-assimilation (DA) algorithm to ingest noisy observations and improve the initial conditions for next forecasts, and (3) a multi-time-step algorithm, which combines forecasts from DDWP models with different time steps through DA, improving the accuracy of forecasts at short intervals. To show the benefit and feasibility of each component, we use geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) from ERA5 reanalysis and examine the short-term forecast accuracy of specific setups of the DDWP framework. Results show that the spatial-transformer-based U-NET (U-STN) clearly outperforms the U-NET, e.g., improving the forecast skill by 45 %. Using a sigma-point ensemble Kalman (SPEnKF) algorithm for DA and U-STN as the forward model, we show that stable, accurate DA cycles are achieved even with high observation noise. This DDWP+DA framework substantially benefits from large (O(1000)) ensembles that are inexpensively generated with the data-driven forward model in each DA cycle. The multi-time-step DDWP+DA framework also shows promise; for example, it reduces the average error by factors of 2–3. These results show the benefits and feasibility of these three components, which are flexible and can be used in a variety of DDWP setups. Furthermore, while here we focus on weather forecasting, the three components can be readily adopted for other parts of the Earth system, such as ocean and land, for which there is a rapid growth of data and need for forecast and assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗