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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1989

Probabilistic structural analysis methods for improving Space Shuttle engine reliability

Probabilistic structural analysis methods are particularly useful in the design and analysis of critical structural components and systems that operate in very severe and uncertain environments. These methods have recently found application in space propulsion systems to improve the structural reliability of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. A computer program, NESSUS, based on a deterministic finite-element program and a method of probabilistic analysis (fast probability integration) provides probabilistic structural analysis for selected SSME components. While computationally efficient, it considers both correlated and nonnormal random variables as well as an implicit functional relationship between independent and dependent variables. The program is used to determine the response of a nickel-based superalloy SSME turbopump blade. Results include blade tip displacement statistics due to the variability in blade thickness, modulus of elasticity, Poisson's ratio or density. Modulus of elasticity significantly contributed to blade tip variability while Poisson's ratio did not. Thus, a rational method for choosing parameters to be modeled as random is provided.

Boyce, L.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Calibration improvements to electronically scanned pressure systems and preliminary statistical assessment

Orifice-to-orifice inconsistencies in data acquired with an electronically-scanned pressure system at the beginning of a wind tunnel experiment forced modifications to the standard, instrument calibration procedures. These modifications included a large increase in the number of calibration points which would allow a critical examination of the calibration curve-fit process, and a subsequent post-test reduction of the pressure data. Evaluation of these data has resulted in an improved functional representation of the pressure-voltage signature for electronically-scanned pressures sensors, which can reduce the errors due to calibration curve fit to under 0.10 percent of reading compared to the manufacturer specified 0.10 percent of full scale. Application of the improved calibration function allows a more rational selection of the calibration set-point pressures. These pressures should be adjusted to achieve a voltage output which matches the physical shape of the pressure-voltage signature of the sensor. This process is conducted in lieu of the more traditional approach where a calibration pressure is specified and the resulting sensor voltage is recorded. The fifteen calibrations acquired over the two-week duration of the wind tunnel test were further used to perform a preliminary, statistical assessment of the variation in the calibration process. The results allowed the estimation of the bias uncertainty for a single instrument calibration; and, they form the precursor for more extensive and more controlled studies in the laboratory.

Everhart, Joel L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

A Regression Method for Comparing Launch Zone Ranges Derived From Different Sources

In modern fighter aircraft air-to-air missile launch acceptable ranges (LARs) are provided to the pilot for his launch decision. These LARs are calculated in the avionic software, using very simple algebraic equations and algorithms, that attempt to model complex missile behavior. Frequently these algorithms are revised to reflect inaccuracies discovered, when comparisons are made with missile six degree-of-freedom (6-DOF) simulations. The process of modifying this software has become expensive. In the past, these simple LAR generators were modified based only on subjective judgmental approach, with little regard to the missile range design limits. With reduced budgets a more rational methodology should be taken to assess whether or not simple fighter LAR generators need to be modified. Any LAR generator can produce large amounts of range (minimum and maximum) data over the board engagement limits of modem fighter and air-to-air missiles. This infinite population lends itself to some statistical methodology to access simple LAR accuracy and the need for software modification. The methodology should produce statistical parameters for use in the decision making process of modifying a simple fighter LAR generator. This paper presents a regression method, based on a missile range design limit philosophy. Acceptance criteria from the regression method are given that provide simple statistical parameters to aid in this decision making process.

Flight Testing↗

NASA NTRS2002

Rationalizing Burned Carbon with Carbon Monoxide Exported from South America

We present several estimates cross-checking the fluxes of carbon to the atmosphere from burning, comparing models that are based on simple land-surface parameterizations and atmospheric transport dynamics. Both estimates made by NASA Ames and USP modeling techniques are quite high compared to some detailed satellite/land-use studies of emissions. The flux of carbon liberated to the atmosphere via biomass burning is important for several reasons. This flux is a fundamental statistic for the parameterization of the large-scale flux of gases controlling the reactive greenhouse gases methane and ozone. Similarly, it is central to the estimation of the translocation of nitrogen and pyrodenitrification in the tropics. Thirdly, CO2 emitted from rainforest clearing contributes directly to carbon lost from the rainforest system as it contributes to greenhouse gas forcing. While CO2 from pasturage, agriculture, etc, is considered to be reabsorbed seasonally, and so "off budget" for the carbon cycle, it must also be accounted. CO2 anomalies related to daily weather and interannual climatic variation are strong enough to perturb our scientific perception of long-term carbon storage trends. We compare fluxes deduced from land-use statistics (originally, W.M. Hao) and from satellite hot pixels (A. Setzer) with atmospheric fluxes determined by the mesoscale/continental scale models RAMS and MM5, and point to some new work with highly resolved global models (the NASA Data Assimilation Office's GEOS4). Our simulations are tied to events, so that measured tracers like CO tie the models directly to the burning and meteorology of a specific period. We point out a particular sensitivity in estimates based on CO, and indicate how analysis of CO2 along with other biomass-burning tracers may lead to an improved multi-species estimator of carbon burned.

Chatfield, R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Why Income Comparison is Rational

A major factor affecting a person s happiness is the gap between their income and their neighbors , independent of their own income. This effect is strongest when the neighbor has moderately higher income. In addition a person s lifetime happiness often follows a "U" shape. Previous models have explained subsets of these phenomena, typically assuming the person has limited ability to assess their own (hedonic) utility. Here I present a model that explains all the phenomena, without such assumptions. In this model greater income of your neighbor is statistical data that, if carefully analyzed, would recommend that you explore for a new income-generating strategy. This explains unhappiness that your neighbor has greater income, as an emotional "prod" that induces you to explore, in accord with careful statistical analysis. It explains the "U" shape of happiness similarly. Another benefit of this model is that it makes many falsifiable predictions.

Wolpert, David H.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Kerr Reservoir LANDSAT experiment analysis for November 1980

An experiment was conducted on the waters of Kerr Reservoir to determine if reliable algorithms could be developed that relate water quality parameters to remotely sensed data. LANDSAT radiance data was used in the analysis since it is readily available and covers the area of interest on a regular basis. By properly designing the experiment, many of the unwanted variations due to atmosphere, solar, and hydraulic changes were minimized. The algorithms developed were constrained to satisfy rigorous statistical criteria before they could be considered dependable in predicting water quality parameters. A complete mix of different types of algorithms using the LANDSAT bands was generated to provide a thorough understanding of the relationships among the data involved. The study demonstrated that for the ranges measured, the algorithms that satisfactorily represented the data are mostly linear and only require a maximum of one or two LANDSAT bands. Rationing techniques did not improve the results since the initial design of the experiment minimized the errors that this procedure is effective against. Good correlations were established for inorganic suspended solids, iron, turbidity, and secchi depth.

Lecroy, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Create an improved method to calculate reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle system prior to fabrication by using historic data of actual root causes of failures. While failures have unique "proximate causes", there are typically a finite amount of common "root causes". Heretofore launch vehicle reliability evaluation typically hardware-centric statistical analyses, while most root causes of failures are been shown to be human-centric. A method based on human-centric root causes can be used to quantify reliability assessments and focus proposed actions to mitigate problems. Existing methods have been optimistic in their projections of launch vehicle reliability compared to actuals. Hypothesis: reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle can be more accurately evaluated based on a rational, probabilistic approach using past failure assessment teams' findings predicated on human-centric causes."Human Reliability Analysis Methods Selection Guidance for NASA"Chandler F.T., et al., NASA HQ/OSMA study group, July 2006. Outside HRA experts from academia, other federal labs, and the private sector. 50 system reliability methods considered, fourteen selected for further study, four finally selected as best suited for human spaceflight. Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) + Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) enabled incorporating effects and probabilities of human errors. While four down-selected methods deemed appropriate for failure assessment, it did not appear that these methods could be concisely applied to perform major system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy."Engineering a Safer World", Detailed, comprehensive study external to NASA Leveson N. G., MIT, 2011.Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP). All-encompassing accident model based on systems theory analyzed accidents after they occurred and created approaches to prevent occurrence in developing systems not focused on failure prevention per se, but rather reducing hazards by influencing human behavior through use of constraints, hierarchical control structures, and process models to improve system safetySystem Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) addresses predictive part of problem (a "hazard analysis"). Includes all causal factors identified in STAMP: "...design errors, software flaws, component interaction accidents, cognitively complex human decision-making errors, and social organizational and management factors contributing to accidents" can guide design process rather than require it to exist before-hand did not appear capable of concise application for system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy.

Williams, Craig H.↗

NASA NTRS1994

TOPEX/POSEIDON tides estimated using a global inverse model

Altimetric data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission will be used for studies of global ocean circulation and marine geophysics. However, it is first necessary to remove the ocean tides, which are aliased in the raw data. The tides are constrained by the two distinct types of information: the hydrodynamic equations which the tidal fields of elevations and velocities must satisfy, and direct observational data from tide gauges and satellite altimetry. Here we develop and apply a generalized inverse method, which allows us to combine rationally all of this information into global tidal fields best fitting both the data and the dynamics, in a least squares sense. The resulting inverse solution is a sum of the direct solution to the astronomically forced Laplace tidal equations and a linear combination of the representers for the data functionals. The representer functions (one for each datum) are determined by the dynamical equations, and by our prior estimates of the statistics or errors in these equations. Our major task is a direct numerical calculation of these representers. This task is computationally intensive, but well suited to massively parallel processing. By calculating the representers we reduce the full (infinite dimensional) problem to a relatively low-dimensional problem at the outset, allowing full control over the conditioning and hence the stability of the inverse solution. With the representers calculated we can easily update our model as additional TOPEX/POSEIDON data become available. As an initial illustration we invert harmonic constants from a set of 80 open-ocean tide gauges. We then present a practical scheme for direct inversion of TOPEX/POSEIDON crossover data. We apply this method to 38 cycles of geophysical data records (GDR) data, computing preliminary global estimates of the four principal tidal constituents, M(sub 2), S(sub 2), K(sub 1) and O(sub 1). The inverse solution yields tidal fields which are simultaneously smoother, and in better agreement with altimetric and ground truth data, than previously proposed tidal models. Relative to the 'default' tidal corrections provided with the TOPEX/POSEIDON GDR, the inverse solution reduces crossover difference variances significantly (approximately 20-30%), even though only a small number of free parameters (approximately equal to 1000) are actually fit to the crossover data.

Egbert, Gary D.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Guidelines for Design and Analysis of Large, Brittle Spacecraft Components

There were two related parts to this work. The first, conducted at The Aerospace Corporation was to develop and define methods for integrating the statistical theory of brittle strength with conventional finite element stress analysis, and to carry out a limited laboratory test program to illustrate the methods. The second part, separately funded at Aerojet Electronic Systems Division, was to create the finite element postprocessing program for integrating the statistical strength analysis with the structural analysis. The second part was monitored by Capt. Jeff McCann of USAF/SMC, as Special Study No.11, which authorized Aerojet to support Aerospace on this work requested by NASA. This second part is documented in Appendix A. The activity at Aerojet was guided by the Aerospace methods developed in the first part of this work. This joint work of Aerospace and Aerojet stemmed from prior related work for the Defense Support Program (DSP) Program Office, to qualify the DSP sensor main mirror and corrector lens for flight as part of a shuttle payload. These large brittle components of the DSP sensor are provided by Aerojet. This document defines rational methods for addressing the structural integrity and safety of large, brittle, payload components, which have low and variable tensile strength and can suddenly break or shatter. The methods are applicable to the evaluation and validation of such components, which, because of size and configuration restrictions, cannot be validated by direct proof test.

Robinson, E. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Computational analysis of flow in 3D propulsive transition ducts

A numerical analysis of fully three dimensional, statistically steady flows in propulsive transition ducts being considered for use in future aircraft of higher maneuverability is investigated. The purpose of the transition duct is to convert axisymmetric flow from conventional propulsion systems to that of a rectangular geometry of high aspect ratio. In an optimal design, the transition duct would be of minimal length in order to reduce the weight penalty, while the geometrical change would be gradual enough to avoid detrimental flow perturbations. Recent experiments conducted at the Propulsion Aerodynamics Branch have indicated that thrust losses in ducts of superelliptic cross-section can be surprisingly low, even if flow separation occurs near the divergent walls. In order to address the objective of developing a rational design procedure for optimal transition ducts, it is necessary to have available a reliable computational tool for the analysis of flows achieved in a sequence of configurations. Current CFD efforts involving complicated geometries usually must contend with two separate but interactive aspects: namely, grid generation and flow solution. The first two avenues of the present investigation were comprised of suitable grid generation for a class of transition ducts of superelliptic cross-section, and the subsequent application of the flow solver PAB3D to this geometry. The code, PAB3D, was developed as a comprehensive tool for the solution of both internal and external high speed flows. The third avenue of investigation has involved analytical formulations to aid in the understanding of the nature of duct flows, and also to provide a basis of comparison for subsequent numerical solutions. Numerical results to date include the generation of two preliminary grid systems for duct flows, and the initial application of PAB3D to the corresponding geometries, which are of the class tested experimentally.

Sepri, Paavo↗

NASA NTRS2003

Sensitivity of Precipitation Processes to Microphysics and Resolution in a Cloud Resolving Model

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model examines the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution in the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble of clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperature, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing rations of all water phases (vapor, liquid and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes and with surface processes. For idealized hurricanes, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was use to simulate squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, South China Sea, eastern Atlantic, South America and central U.S. FOr the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have a good sampling of cloud statistics. In this paper, the sensitivities of hurricane intensity to various microphysical processes and model grid resolutio will be examined. This will be mainly achieved by performing sensitivity tests using various horizontal (from 1-to 5-km) and vertical resolutions (from 20- to 200-m in the lower troposphere to 200- to 500m in the middle and upper troposphere). Sensitivity test using various microphysical schemes (warm rain only, and three ice with either graupel or hail) will also be performed. The thermodynamic and water budget associated with various types of precipitation systems will also be evaluated. The budgets will be calculated for different regions (i.e., convective and stratiform regions).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2006

Distributed Constrained Optimization with Semicoordinate Transformations

Recent work has shown how information theory extends conventional full-rationality game theory to allow bounded rational agents. The associated mathematical framework can be used to solve constrained optimization problems. This is done by translating the problem into an iterated game, where each agent controls a different variable of the problem, so that the joint probability distribution across the agents moves gives an expected value of the objective function. The dynamics of the agents is designed to minimize a Lagrangian function of that joint distribution. Here we illustrate how the updating of the Lagrange parameters in the Lagrangian is a form of automated annealing, which focuses the joint distribution more and more tightly about the joint moves that optimize the objective function. We then investigate the use of "semicoordinate" variable transformations. These separate the joint state of the agents from the variables of the optimization problem, with the two connected by an onto mapping. We present experiments illustrating the ability of such transformations to facilitate optimization. We focus on the special kind of transformation in which the statistically independent states of the agents induces a mixture distribution over the optimization variables. Computer experiment illustrate this for &sat constraint satisfaction problems and for unconstrained minimization of NK functions.

Macready, William↗

NASA NTRS2016

Automating Microbial Directed Evolution For Bioengineering Applications

From a micro-biology perspective, directed evolution is a technique that uses controlled environmental pressures to select for a desired phenotype. Directed evolution has the distinct advantage over rational design of not needing extensive knowledge of the genome or pathways associated with a microorganism to induce phenotypes. However, there are currently limitations to the applicability of this technique including being time-consuming, error-prone, and dependent on existing assays that may lack selectivity for the given phenotype. The AADEC (Autonomous Adaptive Directed Evolution Chamber) system is a proof-of-concept instrument to automate and improve the technique such that directed evolution can be used more effectively as a general bioengineering tool. A series of tests using the automated system and comparable by-hand survival assay measurements have been carried out using UV-C radiation and Escherichia coli cultures in order to demonstrate the advantages of the AADEC versus traditional implementations of directed evolution such as random mutagenesis. AADEC uses UV-C exposure as both a source of environmental stress and mutagenesis, so in order to evaluate the UV-C tolerance obtained from the cultures, a manual UV-C exposure survival assay was developed alongside the device to compare the survival fractions at a fixed dosage. This survival assay involves exposing E. coli to UV-C radiation using a custom-designed exposure hood to control the flux and dose. Surviving cells are counted then transferred to the next iteration and so on for several iterations to calculate the survival fractions for each exposure iteration.This survival assay primarily serves as a baseline for the AADEC device, allowing quantification of the differences between the AADEC system over the manual approach. The primary data of comparison is survival fractions; this is obtained by optical density and plate counts in the manual assay and by optical density growth curve fits pre- and post-exposure in the automated case. This data can then be compiled to calculate trends over the iterations to characterize increasing UV-C resistance of the E.coli strains. The observed trends are statistically indistinguishable through several iterations from both sources.

Bioengineering↗