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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Sensitivity of a Cloud-Resolving Model to the Bulk and Explicit Bin Microphysical Schemes: Validations with a PRE-STORM Case - Part 1

A cloud-resolving model is used to study sensitivities of two different microphysical schemes, one is the bulk type, and the other is an explicit bin scheme, in simulating a mid-latitude squall line case (PRE-STORM, June 10-11, 1985). Simulations using different microphysical schemes are compared with each other and also with the observations. Both the bulk and bin models reproduce the general features during the developing and mature stage of the system. The leading convective zone, the trailing stratiform region, the horizontal wind flow patterns, pressure perturbation associated with the storm dynamics, and the cool pool in front of the system all agree well with the observations. Both the observations and the bulk scheme simulation serve as validations for the newly incorporated bin scheme. However, it is also shown that, the bulk and bin simulations have distinct differences, most notably in the stratiform region. Weak convective cells exist in the stratiform region in the bulk simulation, but not in the bin simulation. These weak convective cells in the stratiform region are remnants of the previous stronger convections at the leading edge of the system. The bin simulation, on the other hand, has a horizontally homogeneous stratiform cloud structure, which agrees better with the observations. Preliminary examinations of the downdraft core strength, the potential temperature perturbation, and the evaporative cooling rate show that the differences between the bulk and bin models are due mainly to the stronger low-level evaporative cooling in convective zone simulated in the bulk model. Further quantitative analysis and sensitivity tests for this case using both the bulk and bin models will be presented in a companion paper.

Li, Xiao-Wen↗
DOE OSTI2025

High Performance, High Fidelity: A GPU‐Accelerated Doubly‐Periodic Configuration of the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model Version 1 (DP‐SCREAMv1)

The development of the Simplified Cloud Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System Atmosphere Model (SCREAMv1) enables global storm-resolving simulations on modern GPU-based supercomputers. However, the high computational cost of SCREAMv1 limits its routine use for process-level studies, creating a need for efficient proxy configurations. This study addresses this gap by introducing DP-SCREAMv1, a doubly periodic cloud-resolving model designed to be fully consistent with SCREAMv1 while enabling high-resolution, long-duration simulations at significantly reduced computational expense by simulating a limited doubly periodic domain rather than the entire globe. Built on a C++/Kokkos architecture, DP-SCREAMv1 achieves exceptional performance scalability on GPU systems and includes a rich library of cases for validation and scientific exploration. In this work, we demonstrate short wall-clock times at SCREAMv1's default resolution and show that DP-SCREAMv1 supports routine execution of large-domain, high-resolution experiments that were previously challenging in practice. Furthermore, we show that DP-SCREAMv1 enables routine execution of “Giga-LES” style simulations and facilitates large-domain, high-resolution simulations that were recently considered burdensome to perform. These results document an efficient, fully consistent process-level configuration for SCREAMv1 (DP-SCREAMv1) and illustrate its use for long-duration and large-domain experiments at cloud-resolving to eddy-permitting resolution.

Environmental sciences↗
NASA NTRS2009

Sensitivity of a Cloud-Resolving Model to Bulk and Explicit Bin Microphysical Schemes: Cloud Microphysics and Storm Dynamics Interactions - Part 2

Part I of this paper compares two simulations, one using a bulk and the other a detailed bin microphysical scheme, of a long-lasting, continental mesoscale convective system with leading convection and trailing stratiform region. Diagnostic studies and sensitivity tests are carried out in Part II to explain the simulated contrasts in the spatial and temporal variations by the two microphysical schemes and to understand the interactions between cloud microphysics and storm dynamics. It is found that the fixed raindrop size distribution in the bulk scheme artificially enhances rain evaporation rate and produces a stronger near surface cool pool compared with the bin simulation. In the bulk simulation, cool pool circulation dominates the near-surface environmental wind shear in contrast to the near-balance between cool pool and wind shear in the bin simulation. This is the main reason for the contrasting quasi-steady states simulated in Part I. Sensitivity tests also show that large amounts of fast-falling hail produced in the original bulk scheme not only result in a narrow trailing stratiform region but also act to further exacerbate the strong cool pool simulated in the bulk parameterization. An empirical formula for a correction factor, r(q(sub r)) = 0.11q(sub r)(exp -1.27) + 0.98, is developed to correct the overestimation of rain evaporation in the bulk model, where r is the ratio of the rain evaporation rate between the bulk and bin simulations and q(sub r)(g per kilogram) is the rain mixing ratio. This formula offers a practical fix for the simple bulk scheme in rain evaporation parameterization.

Li, Xiaowen↗
NASA NTRS2022

Atmospheric Energy Spectra in Global Kilometre-Scale Models

Eleven 40-day long integrations of five different global models with horizontal resolutions of less than 9 km are compared in terms of their global energy spectra. The method of normal-mode function decomposition is used to distinguish between balanced (Rossby wave; RW) and unbalanced (inertia-gravity wave; IGW) circulation. The simulations produce the expected canonical shape of the spectra, but their spectral slopes at mesoscales, and the zonal scale at which RW and IGW spectra intersect differ significantly. The partitioning of total wave energies into RWs an IGWs is most sensitive to the turbulence closure scheme and this partitioning is what determines the spectral crossing scale in the simulations, which differs by a factor of up to two. It implies that care must be taken when using simple spatial filtering to compare gravity wave phenomena in storm-resolving simulations, even when the model horizontal resolutions are similar. In contrast to the energy partitioning between the RWs and IGWs, changes in turbulence closure schemes do not seem to strongly affect spectral slopes, which only exhibit major differences at mesoscales. Despite their minor contribution to the global (horizontal kinetic plus potential available) energy, small scales are important for driving the global mean circulation. Our results support the conclusions of previous studies that the strength of convection is a relevant factor for explaining discrepancies in the energies at small scales. The models studied here produce the major large-scale features of tropical precipitation patterns. However, particularly at large horizontal wavenumbers, the spectra of upper tropospheric vertical velocity, which is a good indicator for the strength of deep convection, differ by factors of three or more in energy. High vertical kinetic energies at small scales are mostly found in those models that do not use any convective parameterisation.

DYAMOND↗
NASA NTRS2006

Can High-resolution WRF Simulations Be Used for Short-term Forecasting of Lightning?

A number of research teams have begun to make quasi-operational forecast simulations at high resolution with models such as the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. These model runs have used horizontal meshes of 2-4 km grid spacing, and thus resolved convective storms explicitly. In the light of recent global satellite-based observational studies that reveal robust relationships between total lightning flash rates and integrated amounts of precipitation-size ice hydrometeors in storms, it is natural to inquire about the capabilities of these convection-resolving models in representing the ice hydrometeor fields faithfully. If they do, this might make operational short-term forecasts of lightning activity feasible. We examine high-resolution WRF simulations from several Southeastern cases for which either NLDN or LMA lightning data were available. All the WRF runs use a standard microphysics package that depicts only three ice species, cloud ice, snow and graupel. The realism of the WRF simulations is examined by comparisons with both lightning and radar observations and with additional even higher-resolution cloud-resolving model runs. Preliminary findings are encouraging in that they suggest that WRF often makes convective storms of the proper size in approximately the right location, but they also indicate that higher resolution and better hydrometeor microphysics would be helpful in improving the realism of the updraft strengths, reflectivity and ice hydrometeor fields.

Goodman, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

An Overview of the Lightning - Atmospheric Chemistry Aspects of the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) Experiment

Some of the major goals of the DC3 experiment are to determine the contribution of lightning to NO(x) in the anvils of observed thunderstorms, examine the relationship of lightning NO(x) production to flash rates and to lightning channel lengths, and estimate the relative production per flash for cloud-to-ground flashes and intracloud flashes. In addition, the effects of lightning NO(x) production on photochemistry downwind of thunderstorms is also being examined. The talk will survey the observation types that were conducted during DC3 relevant to these goals and provide an overview of the analysis and modeling techniques which are being used to achieve them. NO(x) was observed on three research aircraft during DC3 (the NCAR G-V, the NASA DC-8, and the DLR Falcon) in flights through storm anvils in three study regions (NE Colorado, Central Oklahoma to West Texas, and northern Alabama) where lightning mapping arrays (LMAs) and radar coverage were available. Initial comparisons of the aircraft NOx observations in storm anvils relative to flash rates have been conducted, which will be followed with calculations of the flux of NO(x) through the anvils, which when combined with observed flash rates can be used to estimate storm-average lightning NOx production per flash. The WRF-Chem model will be run for cloud-resolved simulations of selected observed storms during DC3. Detailed lightning information from the LMAs (flash rates and flash lengths as a function of time and vertical distributions of flash channel segments) will be input to the model along with assumptions concerning NO(x) production per CG flash and per IC flash. These assumptions will be tested through comparisons with the aircraft NOx data from anvil traverses. A specially designed retrieval method for lightning NO2 column amounts from the OMI instrument on NASA fs Aura satellite has been utilized to estimate NO2 over the region affected by selected DC3 storms. Combined with NO(x) to NO2 ratios from the aircraft data and WRF-Chem model and observed flash rates, average NO(x) production per flash can be estimated. Ozone production downwind of observed storms can be estimated from the WRF-Chem simulations and the specific downwind flights.

Pickering, K. E.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Use of High-Resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors aloft in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of cloud-resolving forecast models such as WRF, to forecast explicitly the threat of lightning from convective storms using selected output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C and the shape of the simulated reflectivity profile are tested in this study as proxies for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Our lightning forecast method differs from others in that it is entirely based on high-resolution simulation output, without reliance on any climatological data. short [6-8 h) simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dmmensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity fields, and METAR and ACARS data y&eld satisfactory simulations. __nalyses of the lightning threat fields suggests that both the graupel flux and reflectivity profile approaches, when properly calibrated, can yield reasonable lightning threat forecasts, although an ensemble approach is probably desirable in order to reduce the tendency for misplacement of modeled storms to hurt the accuracy of the forecasts. Our lightning threat forecasts are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting thunderstorms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forest Breeze–Cold Pool Interactions Drive Convective Organization over Heterogeneous Vegetation

Heterogeneous landscapes can influence the development of convection through the generation of thermally driven mesoscale circulations. To assess the impacts of these circulations and their interaction with sea breezes, we simulated convection in an idealized coastal environment using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). We compared simulations with striped patterns of surface vegetation to those of uniform vegetation to identify the importance of vegetation heterogeneity in impacting convective development. Under dry soil conditions representative of those during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) and Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) campaigns in June 2022, we found that these vegetation-induced circulations, referred to in the literature as “forest breezes,” are more important than the sea breeze in determining the location of convection initiation. Convection and precipitation are also found to be favored over forests and suppressed over pasture and suburban landscapes as a result of greater surface sensible heat flux over the forest. Our findings also indicate that forest breezes are important for initiating convection along the boundaries of the forest, but that cold pools may play a key role in propagating the forest breezes toward the center of the forest stripe. In our simulations, the collisions of these breezes in the center of the forest stripe lead to uplift and strong convection there; however, a different width of the forest stripe would alter when the forest breezes collide or whether they collide at all. The presence of these cold pools may therefore impact the “ideal stripe width,” the width of each vegetation stripe which maximizes domain-wide precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Thermospheric Neutral Density Variation During the “SpaceX” Storm: Implications From Physics-Based Whole Geospace Modeling

The Starlink satellites launched on 3 February 2022 were lost before they fully arrived in their designated orbits. The loss was attributed to two moderate geomagnetic storms that occurred consecutively on February 3-4. We investigate the thermospheric neutral mass density variation during these storms with the Multiscale Atmosphere-Geospace Environment (MAGE) model, a first-principles, fully coupled geospace model. Simulated neutral density enhancements are validated by Swarm satellite measurements at the altitude of 400-500 km. Comparison with standalone TIEGCM and empirical NRLMSIS 2.0 and DTM-2012 models suggests better performance by MAGE in predicting the maximum density enhancement and resolving the gradual recovery process. Along the Starlink satellite orbit in the middle thermosphere (∼ 200 km altitude), MAGE predicts up to 150% density enhancement near the second storm peak while standalone TIEGCM, NRLMSIS 2.0 and DTM-2012 suggest only ∼ 50% increase. MAGE also suggests altitudinal, longitudinal, and latitudinal variability of storm-time percentage density enhancement due to height dependent Joule heating deposition per unit mass, thermospheric circulation changes, and travelling atmospheric disturbances. This study demonstrates that a moderate storm can cause substantial density enhancement in the middle thermosphere. Thermospheric mass density strongly depends on the strength, timing, and location of high-latitude energy input, which cannot be fully reproduced with empirical models. A physics-based, fully coupled geospace model that can accurately resolve the high-latitude energy input and its variability is critical to modeling the dynamic response of thermospheric neutral density during storm time.

Starlink↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resolution dependence of the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer in global storm-resolving climate simulations

The current generation of state-of-the-art global climate models are being run at increasingly higher horizontal resolutions, with the goal of resolving organised deep convection explicitly. How a kilometre-scale resolution impacts the representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is, however, not well known. Using statistical analysis on global fields as well as high-frequency data at selected locations, produced with the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) model for the Next Generation Earth-system Models (nextGEMS) project, we investigate the horizontal resolution dependence of some boundary-layer processes. We find that a change in resolution from 9 to 2.8 km causes no substantial changes to boundary-layer properties and processes at most of the locations studied, although some global changes are detected that indicate circulation changes. Small changes to the boundary-layer depth and structure are found in the Tropics. The short simulation length and lack of data for optimal boundary-layer analysis limits the conclusions, especially in relation to the connection between the boundary layer and the atmosphere general circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Could Future Climate Conditions Reshape a Devastating Lake‐Effect Snow Storm?

Abstract Lake‐effect snow (LES) storms, characterized by heavy convective precipitation downwind of large lakes, pose significant coastal hazards with severe socioeconomic consequences in vulnerable areas. In this study, we investigate how devastating LES storms could evolve in the future by employing a storyline approach, using the LES storm that occurred over Buffalo, New York, in November 2022 as an example. Using a Pseudo‐Global Warming method with a fully three‐dimensional two‐way coupled lake‐land‐atmosphere modeling system at a cloud‐resolving 4 km resolution, we show a 14% increase in storm precipitation under the end‐century warming. This increase in precipitation is accompanied by a transition in the precipitation form from predominantly snowfall to nearly equal parts snowfall and rainfall. Through additional simulations with isolated atmospheric and lake warming, we discerned that the warmer lake contributes to increased storm precipitation through enhanced evaporation while the warmer atmosphere contributes to the increase in the storm's rainfall, at the expense of snowfall. More importantly, this shift from snowfall to rainfall was found to nearly double the area experiencing another winter hazard, Rain‐on‐Snow. Our study provides a plausible future storyline for the Buffalo LES storm, focusing on understanding the intricate interplay between atmospheric and lake warming in shaping the future dynamics of LES storms. It emphasizes the importance of accurately capturing the changing lake‐atmosphere dynamics during LES storms under future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Simultaneous Radar and Satellite Data Storm-Scale Assimilation Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter Approach for 24 May 2011

Assimilating high-resolution radar reflectivity and radial velocity into convection-permitting numerical weather prediction models has proven to be an important tool for improving forecast skill of convection. The use of satellite data for the application is much less well understood, only recently receiving significant attention. Since both radar and satellite data provide independent information, combing these two sources of data in a robust manner potentially represents the future of high-resolution data assimilation. This research combines Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 13 (GOES-13) cloud water path (CWP) retrievals with Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) reflectivity and radial velocity to examine the impacts of assimilating each for a severe weather event occurring in Oklahoma on 24 May 2011. Data are assimilated into a 3-km model using an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter approach with 36 members over a 2-h assimilation window between 1800 and 2000 UTC. Forecasts are then generated for 90 min at 5-min intervals starting at 1930 and 2000 UTC. Results show that both satellite and radar data are able to initiate convection, but that assimilating both spins up a storm much faster. Assimilating CWP also performs well at suppressing spurious precipitation and cloud cover in the model as well as capturing the anvil characteristics of developed storms. Radar data are most effective at resolving the 3D characteristics of the core convection. Assimilating both satellite and radar data generally resulted in the best model analysis and most skillful forecast for this event.

Jones, Thomas A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Cloud-Resolved Simulations of Lightning NOx in an Observed Hector Thunderstorm

Cloud chemistry simulations are being performed for a "Hector" storm observed on 16 November 2005 during the SCOUT-03lACTIVE campaigns based in Darwin, Australia. The primary objective of these simulations is to estimate the average production of NO per lightning flash during the storm. The 3-D WRF-AqChem model is being used for these calculations. This modeling package contains the WRF nonhydrostatic cloud-resolving model, online gas- and aqueous-phase chemistry, and a lightning algorithm (Barth et al., 2007). Early morning soundings of temperature, water vapor and winds are used to initialize the model. Surface heating of the Tiwi Islands is simulated in the model to induce convection. Observations from the Egrett, Falcon, Geophysica, and Dornier aircraft in air undisturbed by the storm are used to construct composite initial condition chemical profiles. Convective transport in the model is tested using tracer species such as CO and O3. Lightning flashes observed by the LINET network are input to the model and a lightning placement scheme is used to inject the resulting NO into the simulated cloud. Various scenarios of NO production per flash are used for cloud-to-ground and intracloud flashes in a series of simulations for the storm. Resulting NO, mixing ratios from each simulation are compared with upper tropospheric anvil observations (from the Geophysica and Egrett aircraft) to determine the best fit with the mean NOx at anvil altitudes, the profile shape, and the frequency distribution of NOx values. We will compare the results for lightning NO production from this tropical thunderstorm with similar analyses conducted for several midlatitude and subtropical convective events.

Pickering, Kenneth↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mid-century climate change impacts on tornado-producing tropical cyclones

Tornadoes are a co-occurring extreme that can be produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). These tornadoes can exacerbate the loss of life and property damage caused by the TC from which they were spawned. It is uncertain how the severe weather environments of landfalling TCs may change in a future climate and how this could impact tornado activity from TCs. In this study, we investigated four TCs that made landfall in the U.S. and produced large tornado outbreaks. We performed four-member ensembles of convective-allowing (4-km resolution) regional climate model simulations representing each TC in the historical climate and a mid-twenty-first century future climate. To identify potentially tornadic storms, or TC-tornado (TCT) surrogates, we used thresholds for three-hourly maximum updraft helicity and radar reflectivity, as tornadoes are not resolved in the model. We found that the ensemble-mean number of TCT-surrogates increased substantially (56–299%) in the future, supported by increases in most-unstable convective available potential energy, surface-to-700-hPa bulk wind shear, and 0–1-km storm-relative helicity in the tornado-producing region of the TCs. On the other hand, future changes in most-unstable convective inhibition had minimal influence on future TCT-surrogates. This provides robust evidence that tornado activity from TCs may increase in the future. Furthermore, TCT-surrogate frequency between 00Z and 09Z increased for three of the four cases, suggesting enhanced tornado activity at night, when people are asleep and more likely to miss warnings. All of these factors indicate that TC-tornadoes may become more frequent and a greater hazard in the future, compounding impacts from future increases in TC winds and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

High-Efficiency High-Resolution Global Model Developments at the NASA Goddard Data Assimilation Office

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 km or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed-shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.

Lin, Shian-Jiann↗
NASA NTRS2002

High-Efficiency High-Resolution Global Model Developments at the NASA Goddard Data Assimilation Office

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 kin or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed- shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.

Lin, Shian-Jiann↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Observing System Simulations for the AOS Mission

The Earth System Observatory (ESO) is NASA’s response to the recommendations of the 2017 Earth Sciences Decadal Survey conducted by the US National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. The ESO is being conceived as a set of fully integrated missions addressing 4 main Earth science focus areas including aerosols, clouds, convection and precipitation (jointly re-ferred to as AOS, the Atmosphere Observing System). ESO ground breaking observations will provide critical measurements to address societally relevant problems in climate change, natural hazard mitiga-tion, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. A critical element of the AOS observing strategy is to make extensive use of new passive and active sen-sors as well as of the so-called Program-of-Record (PoR), complemented by a fully integrated sub-orbital component. In order to achieve maximum benefit, all these observations need to be integrated into comprehensive observing and modeling/data assimilation systems. Such an approach requires compre-hensive model-data synthesis capabilities that needs to be conceived in conjunction with the space-based and suborbital components of AOS. In this presentation we will summarize the major science goals of AOS including cloud feedbacks, at-mospheric convection, emphasizing aerosol processes and aerosol radiative effects, and the synergistic aspects of clouds-precipitation-aerosol interactions. We will describe examples of the observing system simulation capabilities being developed for AOS, including global storm resolving nature runs, detailed instrument and retrieval simulators, as well as fast retrieval emulators for instrumenting climate models. This simulation environment, being developed under NASA’s open-source science initiative, will permit us to explore how AOS data will be used across space and time to better initialize forecasts and train modeling systems, and to infuse models and data assimilation systems with AOS data, well before launch.

Arlindo da Silva↗
NASA NTRS2001

Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model

The response of cloud systems to their environment is an important link in a chain of processes responsible for monsoons, frontal depression, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes and other climate variations (e.g., 30-60 day intra-seasonal oscillations). Numerical models of cloud properties provide essential insights into the interactions of clouds with each other, with their surroundings, and with land and ocean surfaces. Significant advances are currently being made in the modeling of rainfall and rain-related cloud processes, ranging in scales from the very small up to the simulation of an extensive population of raining cumulus clouds in a tropical- or midlatitude-storm environment. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a multi-dimensional nonhydrostatic dynamic/microphysical cloud resolving model. It has been used to simulate many different mesoscale convective systems that occurred in various geographic locations. In this paper, recent GCE model improvements (microphysics, radiation and surface processes) will be described as well as their impact on the development of precipitation events from various geographic locations. The performance of these new physical processes will be examined by comparing the model results with observations. In addition, the explicit interactive processes between cloud, radiation and surface processes will be discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗