Probabilistic Predictions of Offshore Gas Hydrate and Submarine Permafrost Distribution Along the Alaskan North Slope.
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Poster for the 2024 SSA Photonic Seismology conference.
Presentation to Waves in Sea Environments (WISE) Meeting
Geology & Geophysics Seminar Series, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, February 2, 2023
AGU Fall Meeting 2022, Chicago, IL, December 12-16, 2022
Most volcanic eruptions on Earth take place below the ocean surface and remain largely unobserved. Reconstruction of past submerged eruptions has thus primarily been based on the study of seafloor deposits. Rarely before the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano (Kingdom of Tonga) have we been able to categorically link deep-sea deposits to a specific volcanic source. This eruption was the largest in the modern satellite era, producing a 58-km-tall plume, a 20-m high tsunami, and a pressure wave that propagated around the world. The eruption induced the fastest submarine density currents ever measured, which destroyed submarine telecommunication cables and traveled at least 85 km to the west to the neighboring Lau Basin. Here we report findings from a series of remotely operated vehicle dives conducted 4 months after the eruption along the Eastern Lau Spreading Center-Valu Fa Ridge. Hunga-sourced volcaniclastic deposits 7–150 cm in thickness were found at nine sites, and collected. Study of the internal structure, grain size, componentry, glass chemistry, and microfossil assemblages of the cores show that these deposits are the distal portions of at least two ~100-km-runout submarine density currents. We identify distinct physical characteristics of entrained microfossils that demonstrate the dynamics and pathways of the density currents. Microfossil evidence suggests that even the distal parts of the currents were erosive, remobilizing microfossil-concentrated sediments across the Lau Basin. Remobilization by volcaniclastic submarine density currents may thus play a greater role in carbon transport into deep sea basins than previously thought.
Abstract Among natural hazards occurring offshore, submarine landslides pose a significant risk to offshore infrastructure installations attached to the seafloor. With the offshore being important for current and future energy production, there is a need to anticipate where future landslide events are likely to occur to support planning and development projects. Using the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) as a case study, this paper performs Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (LSM) using a gradient-boosted decision tree (GBDT) model to characterize the spatial patterns of submarine landslide probability over the United States Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) where water depths are greater than 120 m. With known spatial extents of historic submarine landslides and a Geographic Information System (GIS) database of known topographical, geomorphological, geological, and geochemical factors, the resulting model was capable of accurately forecasting potential locations of sediment instability. Results of a permutation modelling approach indicated that LSM accuracy is sensitive to the number of unique training locations with model accuracy becoming more stable as the number of training regions was increased. The influence that each input feature had on predicting landslide susceptibility was evaluated using the SHapely Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature attribution method. Areas of high and very high susceptibility were associated with steep terrain including salt basins and escarpments. This case study serves as an initial assessment of the machine learning (ML) capabilities for producing accurate submarine landslide susceptibility maps given the current state of available natural hazard-related datasets and conveys both successes and limitations.
Researchers have recently estimated that Arctic submarine permafrost currently traps 60 billion tons of methane and contains 560 billion tons of organic carbon in seafloor sediments and soil, a giant pool of carbon with potentially large feedbacks on the climate system. Unlike terrestrial permafrost, the submarine permafrost system has remained a “known unknown” because of the difficulty in acquiring samples and measurements. Consequently, this potentially large carbon stock never yet considered in global climate models or policy discussions, represents a real wildcard in our understanding of Earth’s climate. This report summarizes our group’s effort at developing a numerical modeling framework designed to produce a first-of-its-kind estimate of Arctic methane gas releases from the marine sediments to the water column, and potentially to the atmosphere, where positive climate feedback may occur. Newly developed modeling capability supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories now gives us the ability to probabilistically map gas distribution and quantity in the seabed by using a hybrid approach of geospatial machine learning, and predictive numerical thermodynamic ensemble modeling. The novelty in this approach is its ability to produce maps of useful data in regions that are only sparsely sampled, a common challenge in the Arctic, and a major obstacle to progress in the past. By applying this model to the circum-Arctic continental shelves and integrating the flux of free gas from in situ methanogenesis and dissociating gas hydrates from the sediment column under climate forcing, we can provide the most reliable estimate of a spatially and temporally varying source term for greenhouse gas flux that can be used by global oceanographic circulation and Earth system models (such as DOE’s E3SM). The result will allow us to finally tackle the wildcard of the submarine permafrost carbon system, and better inform us about the severity of future national security threats that sustained climate change poses.
Abstract On 15 January 2022, Hunga Volcano in Tonga produced the most violent eruption in the modern satellite era, sending a water‐rich plume at least 58 km high. Using a combination of satellite‐ and ground‐based sensors, we investigate the astonishing rate of volcanic lightning (>2,600 flashes min −1 ) and what it reveals about the dynamics of the submarine eruption. In map view, lightning locations form radially expanding rings. We show that the initial lightning ring is co‐located with an internal gravity wave traveling >80 m s −1 in the stratospheric umbrella cloud. Buoyant oscillations of the plume's overshooting top generated the gravity waves, which enhanced turbulent particle interactions and triggered high‐current electrical discharges at unusually high altitudes. Our analysis attributes the intense lightning activity to an exceptional mass eruption rate (>5 × 10 9 kg s −1 ), rapidly expanding umbrella cloud, and entrainment of abundant seawater vaporized from magma‐water interaction at the submarine vent.
The performance of a hydrogen-powered, electrochemically-driven CO 2 separator (EDCS) was demonstrated at cathode inlet CO 2 concentrations from 400 ppm to 5,000 ppm. The impact of current density and CO 2 concentration were evaluated to predict operating windows for various applications. The single-cell data was used to scale a 100 cm 2 , multi-cell stack using a shorted-membrane design for four applications: direct air capture (DAC), hydroxide exchange membrane fuel cell (HEMFC) air pretreatment, submarine life support, and space habitation. For DAC, a 339-cell EDCS stack (7.7 L, 17 kg) was projected to remove 1 tonne CO 2 per year. The addition of the EDCS in HEMFC systems would result in nearly a 30% increase in volume, and therefore further improvements in performance would be necessary. A module containing five 338-cell EDCS stacks (38 L, 85 kg) in parallel can support a 150 person crew at 2.1% of the volume of the liquid amine system employed in submarines. For space habitation, a 109-cell EDCS stack (3.2 L, 10 kg) is adequate for 6 crewmembers, and is less than 1% the size and 5% the weight of the current CO 2 removal system installed on the International Space Station.
Meltwater from Greenland is an important freshwater source for the North Atlantic Ocean, released into the ocean at the head of fjords in the form of runoff, submarine melt, and icebergs. The meltwater release gives rise to complex in-fjord transformations that result in its dilution through mixing with other water masses. The transformed waters, which contain the meltwater, are exported from the fjords as a new water mass Glacially Modified Water (GMW). Here we use summer hydrographic data collected from 2013 to 2019 in Upernavik, a major glacial fjord in northwest Greenland, to describe the water masses that flow into the fjord from the shelf and the exported GMWs. Using an optimum multi-parameter technique across multiple years we then show that GMW is composed of 57.8% ± 8.1% Atlantic Water (AW), 41.0% ± 8.3% Polar Water (PW), 1.0% ± 0.1% subglacial discharge, and 0.2% ± 0.2% submarine meltwater. We show that the GMW fractional composition cannot be described by buoyant plume theory alone since it includes lateral mixing within the upper layers of the fjord not accounted for by buoyant plume dynamics. Consistent with its composition, we find that changes in GMW properties reflect changes in the AW and PW source waters. Using the obtained dilution ratios, this study suggests that the exchange across the fjord mouth during summer is on the order of 50 mSv (1 Sv ≡ 10 6 m 3 s –1 ) (compared to a freshwater input of 0.5 mSv). This study provides a first-order parameterization for the exchange at the mouth of glacial fjords for large-scale ocean models.
On 15 January 2022 a highly explosive eruption of the Hunga volcano occurred in the Kingdom of Tonga in the South Pacific Ocean (175°24’ W, 20°33’ S). The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 eruption originated from a shallow submarine vent, making it distinct from large subaerial eruptions of recent decades (e.g., 1982 El Chichón, 1991 Mt. Pinatubo). In particular, seawater enhanced explosivity and dampened sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions. The eruption was the culmination of ~1 month of precursory activity; however, the timing and size of the eruption were unexpected, partly due to the challenges of monitoring submarine volcanoes. The stratospheric hydration caused by the eruption was unprecedented in magnitude, altitude, and duration in the satellite record. This Executive Summary reflects the current assessment of the Hunga eruption and its impact on the climate system. We report key observations of the eruption and its aftermath, as well as simulations of its impact by global chemistry-climate models. The Hunga eruption had an unprecedented impact on the stratosphere and mesosphere due to the plume height and large water content, which increased the global stratospheric water vapour burden by 10%. Most of this water has remained in the atmosphere into 2025. However, Hunga’s net impact on surface climate was small compared to that of earlier large-magnitude volcanic eruptions, due to limited sulfate aerosol loading in the stratosphere and the high altitude of the water vapour injection.
The primary aim of this proposal is to improve the accurate prediction of hydrodynamic performance and dynamic load responses of the AQ10 floating axial-flow tidal turbine with a tri-cat mooring configuration. The validation of reduced-order modeling approaches with high-fidelity model will be implemented. Additionally, the frequency response domain, Response Amplitude Floating Wind (RAFT) toolbox plus an optimizer expanded for marine hydrokinetic turbines under the Submarine Hydrokinetic And Riverine Kilo-megawatt. Systems (SHARKS) program will be used for designing and exploring different key design parameters (platform dimension, mooring layout and its parameters) of next marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbine generation.
The Joint Task Force, Science Monitoring And Reliable Telecommunications (JTF SMART) Subsea Cables, is working to integrate environmental sensors for ocean bottom temperature, pressure, and seismic acceleration into submarine telecommunications cables. The purpose of SMART Cables is to support climate and ocean observation, sea level monitoring, observations of Earth structure, and tsunami and earthquake early warning and disaster risk reduction, including hazard quantification. Recent advances include regional SMART pilot systems that are the first steps to trans-ocean and global implementation. Examples of pilots include: InSEA wet demonstration project off Sicily at the European Multidisciplinary Seafloor and water column Observatory Western Ionian Facility; New Caledonia and Vanuatu; French Polynesia Natitua South system connecting Tahiti to Tubaui to the south; Indonesia starting with short pilot systems working toward systems for the Sumatra-Java megathrust zone; and the CAM-2 ring system connecting Lisbon, Azores, and Madeira. This paper describes observing system simulations for these and other regions. Funding reflects a blend of government, development bank, philanthropic foundation, and commercial contributions. In addition to notable scientific and societal benefits, the telecommunications enterprise’s mission of global connectivity will benefit directly, as environmental awareness improves both the integrity of individual cable systems as well as the resilience of the overall global communications network. SMART cables support the outcomes of a predicted, safe, and transparent ocean as envisioned by the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development and the Blue Economy. As a continuation of the OceanObs’19 conference and community white paper (Howe et al., 2019, 10.3389/fmars.2019.00424), an overview of the SMART programme and a description of the status of ongoing projects are given.
Abstract Glass fiber‐reinforced polymer composites are widely used in marine applications, including renewable energy devices and submarines, due to their strength‐to‐weight ratios and corrosion resistance. As sustainability becomes more important, recyclable thermoplastic composites are gaining attention in marine energy applications. These materials face harsh conditions such as high chloride water, UV radiation, pressurization, and thermal cycling, which can affect their durability and recyclability. This study examines the impact of hygrothermal aging on the recyclability of an Elium glass fiber (GF) composite. Samples were mechanically ground for recycling, and mechanical and thermal properties were compared between aged and unaged samples. After seawater aging, the tensile strength and modulus of the unaged composite dropped by 25% and 13% respectively, due to water ingress along the fiber‐matrix interface. The recycled composite showed reduced flexural strength as the long fiber composite was converted into short fibers during the process. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) revealed no change in glass transition temperature after aging. Weight loss (25%) was attributed to the thermal stability of the glass fibers. Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) showed that the storage modulus increased with aging, and fracture analysis confirmed a mixed mode of failure for aged composites. Highlights Hygrothermal aging lowers mechanical performance of Elium® GF composites. Failure mechanism tends to be matrix cracking and interface bonding. Glass transition temperature is not reduced by hygrothermal aging. Fractured composite was successfully recycled via thermoforming. Flexural strength of the recycled composite is lower.
The Princeton Field-Reversed Configuration (PFRC) nuclear fusion reactor concept is an innovative approach to fusion power generation prioritizing low neutron production and small size. Here, a combination of analytical modeling and numerical simulation shows that the novel heating approach generates an FRC with closed field lines. Simulation data from a single-particle Hamiltonian code predicts ms-scale plasma heating in reactor-scale conditions while PIC codes predict formation of warm FRC plasmas from initial mirror fields. The PFRC-1 and PFRC-2 experiments have heated electrons to energies well in excess of 100 eV and plasma durations to 300 ms, more than 10 4 times longer than the predicted tilt instability growth time. From these data, we have created a development plan and anticipated performance metrics for a fusion reactor based on the PFRC concept. The resulting 1–10 MW PFRC reactors would be suitable for diverse applications, from submarines to urban environments to space propulsion. PFRC is a steady-state, driven magnetic confinement device. Plasma, inside a cylindrical array of coils, is confined and heated by external RF antennae. PFRC would be ultra-low radiation due to both its fuel and small size. The choice of advanced fuels, deuterium and helium-3 (D– 3 He), may be enabled by the high-β FRC configuration. The small size of the reactor would enable rapid exhaust of the dangerous tritium ash. Low radiation would make the reactor safer to operate and, in combination with simple geometry and small size, dramatically lowers development and maintenance costs. This review paper gives an introduction to the physics of the PFRC and a summary of the PFRC-2 experiment results to date. It then discusses the future program plan and how PFRC reactors would be commercialized.
A novel approach using decoupled processes to harness offshore renewable energy, from marine hydrokinetics, ocean waves, wind, and solar to produce liquid air, is presented here. Offshore renewables interconnection using submarine medium- and high-voltage direct current technologies are used to produce liquid air that can be transported to end-use locations using repurposed liquefied natural gas tankers. Two important possibilities arise from using the proposed technology. The first possibility allows the integration with conventional thermal cycles to improve efficiency. This approach can be used to leverage efficiencies of thermal systems that have already reached a plateau in the maximum achievable efficiency via design and operation optimization. The second possibility is related to the incorporation of low temperature cycles to recover waste heat from other thermal processes. This is important considering that waste heat accounts for more than 60% of the consumed energy in the United States. A detailed technical description of the complete cycle from cryogen generation to end-use of energy is provided. Estimation of efficiency enhancement for thermal plants using liquid air including waste heat recovery is presented.
Three-dimensional target identification using scattering techniques requires high accuracy solutions and very fast computations for real-time predictions in some critical applications. We first train a deep neural operator (DeepONet) to solve wave propagation problems described by the Helmholtz equation in a domain without scatterers but at different wavenumbers and with a complex absorbing boundary condition. We then design two classes of fast meta-solvers by combining DeepONet with either relaxation methods, such as Jacobi and Gauss-Seidel, or with Krylov methods, such as GMRES and BiCGStab, using the trunk basis of DeepONet as a coarse-scale preconditioner. We leverage the spectral bias of neural networks to account for the lower part of the spectrum in the error distribution while the upper part is handled inexpensively using relaxation methods or fine-scale preconditioners. The meta-solvers are then applied to solve scattering problems with different shape of scatterers, at no extra training cost. We first demonstrate that the resulting meta-solvers are shape-agnostic, fast, and robust, whereas the standard standalone solvers may even fail to converge without the DeepONet. We then apply both classes of meta-solvers to scattering from a submarine, a complex three-dimensional problem. We achieve very fast solutions, especially with the DeepONet-Krylov methods, which require orders of magnitude fewer iterations than any of the standalone solvers.