Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “summer”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

Methane oxidation in Saanich Inlet during summer stratification

Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, an fjord on the southeast coast of Vancouver Island, typically stratifies in summer, leading to the formation of an oxic-anoxic interface in the water column and accumulation of methane in the deep water. The results of methane concentration measurements in the water column of the inlet at various times throughout the summer months in 1983 are presented. Methane gradients and calculated diffusive fluxes across the oxic-anoxic interface increased as the summer progressed. Methane distribution and consumption in Saanich Inlet were studied in more detail during August 1986. At this time, a typical summer stratification with an oxic-anoxic interface around 140 m was present. At the interface, steep gradients in nutrient concentrations, bacterial abundance and methane concentration were observed. Methane oxidation was detected in the aerobic surface waters and in the anaerobic deep layer, but highest rates occurred in a narrow layer at the oxic-anoxic interface. Estimated methane oxidation rates were suffcient to consume 100 percent of the methane provided by diffusive flux from the anoxic layer. Methane oxidation is thus a mechanism whereby atmospheric flux from anoxic waters is minimized.

Ward, B. B.↗
NASA NTRS1996

MCTP Summer Research Internship Program. Research Presentation Day: Experience Mathematics and Science in the Real World

This paper presents the summaries of the MCTP Summer Research Internship Program. Technological areas discussed include: Mathematical curriculum development for real world problems; Rain effects on air-water gas exchange; multi-ring impact basins on mars; developing an interactive multimedia educational cd-rom on remote sensing; a pilot of an activity for for the globe program; fossils in maryland; developing children's programming for the american horticultural society at river farm; children's learning, educational programs of the national park service; a study of climate and student satisfaction in two summer programs for disadvantaged students interested in careers in mathematics and science; the maryland governor's academy, integrating technology into the classroom; stream sampling with the maryland biological stream survey (MBSS); the imaging system inspection software technology, the preparation and detection of nominal and faulted steel ingots; event-based science, the development of real-world science units; correlation between anxiety and past experiences; environmental education through summer nature camp; enhancing learning opportunities at the Salisbury zoo; plant growth experiment, a module for the middle school classroom; the effects of proxisome proliferators in Japanese medaka embryos; development of a chapter on birth control and contraceptive methodologies as part of an interactive computer-based education module on hiv and aids; excretion of gentamicin in toadfish and goldfish; the renaissance summer program; and Are field trips important to the regional math science center?

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1998

1998 NASA-ASEE-Stanford Summer Faculty Fellowship Program

This report presents the essential features and highlights of the 1998 Summer Faculty Fellowship Program at Ames Research Center and Dryden Flight Research Center in a comprehensive and concise form. Summary reports describing the fellows' technical accomplishments are enclosed in the attached technical report. The proposal for the 1999 NASA-ASEE-Stanford Summer Faculty Fellowship Program is being submitted under separate cover. Of the 31 participating fellows, 27 were at Ames and 4 were at Dryden. The Program's central feature is the active participation by each fellow in one of the key technical activities currently under way at either the NASA Ames Research Center or the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. The research topic is carefully chosen in advance to satisfy the criteria of: (1) importance to NASA, (2) high technical level, and (3) a good match to the interests, ability, and experience of the fellow, with the implied possibility of NASA-supported follow-on work at the fellow's home institution. Other features of the Summer Faculty Fellowship Program include participation by the fellows in workshops and seminars at Stanford, the Ames Research Center, and other off-site locations. These enrichment programs take place either directly or remotely, via the Stanford Center for Professional Development, and also involve specific interactions between fellows and Stanford faculty on technical and other academic subjects. A few, brief remarks are in order to summarize the fellows' opinions of the summer program. It is noteworthy that 90% of the fellows gave the NASA-Ames/Dryden- Stanford program an "excellent" rating and the remaining 10%, "good." Also, 100% would recommend the program to their colleagues as an effective means of furthering their professional development as teachers and researchers. Last, but not least, 87% of the fellows stated that a continuing research relationship with their NASA colleagues' organization probably would be maintained. Therefore, the NASA-ASEE- Ames/Dryden-Stanford Program has met its goals very well and every effort will be made to continue to do so in the future.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1998

Studying Turbulence Using Numerical Simulation Databases: Proceedings of the Summer Program - No. 7

The Seventh Summer Program of the Center for Turbulence Research took place in the four-week period, July 5 to July 31, 1998. This was the largest CTR Summer Program to date, involving thirty-six participants from the U. S. and nine other countries. Thirty-one Stanford and NASA-Ames staff members facilitated and contributed to most of the Summer projects. A new feature, and perhaps a preview of the future programs, was that many of the projects were executed on non-NASA computers. These included supercomputers located in Europe as well as those operated by the Departments of Defense and Energy in the United States. In addition, several simulation programs developed by the visiting participants at their home institutions were used. Another new feature was the prevalence of lap-top personal computers which were used by several participants to carry out some of the work that in the past were performed on desk-top workstations. We expect these trends to continue as computing power is enhanced and as more researchers (many of whom CTR alumni) use numerical simulations to study turbulent flows. CTR's main role continues to be in providing a forum for the study of turbulence for engineering analysis and in facilitating intellectual exchange among the leading researchers in the field. Once again the combustion group was the largest. Turbulent combustion has enjoyed remarkable progress in using simulations to address increasingly complex and practically more relevant questions. The combustion group's studies included such challenging topics as fuel evaporation, soot chemistry, and thermonuclear reactions. The latter study was one of three projects related to the Department of Energy's ASCI Program (www.llnl.gov/asci); the other two (rocket propulsion and fire safety) were carried out in the turbulence modeling group. The flow control and acoustics group demonstrated a successful application of the so-called evolution algorithms which actually led to a previously unknown forcing strategy for jets yielding increased spreading rate. A very efficient algorithm for flow in complex geometries with moving boundaries based on the immersed boundary forcing technique was tested with very encouraging results. Also a new strategy for the destruction of aircraft trailing vortices was introduced and tested. The Reynolds Averaged Modeling (RANS) group demonstrated that the elliptic relaxation concept for RANS calculations is also applicable to transonic flows with shocks; however, prediction of laminar/turbulent transition remains an important pacing item. A large fraction of the LES effort was devoted to the development and testing of a new algorithmic procedure (as opposed to phenomenological model) for subgrid scale modeling based on regularized de-filtering of the flow variables. This appears to be a very promising approach, and a significant effort is currently underway to assess its robustness in high Reynolds number flows and in conjunction with numerical methods for complex flows. As part of the Summer Program two review tutorials were given on Turbulent structures in hydrocarbon pool fires (Sheldon Tieszen), and Turbulent combustion modeling: from RANS to LES via DNS (Luc Vervisch); and two seminars entitled Assessment of turbulence models for engineering applications (Paul Durbin) and Subgrid-scale modeling for non-premixed, turbulent reacting flows (James Riley) were presented. A number of colleagues from universities, government agencies, and industry attended the final presentations of the participants on July 31 and participated in the discussions. There are twenty-six papers in this volume grouped in five areas. Each group is preceded with an overview by its coordinator.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2000

Spring and Summer Changes at the South Pole as Seen by the Mars Orbiter Camera

The Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) on the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft has been able to follow individual features as the CO2 frost disappears and exposes the material underneath. Because the orbit of MGS is inclined at an angle of 93 degrees relative to the equator, the spacecraft gets especially good coverage of the ring at 87 degrees latitude. The following is a list of phenomena that have been seen during the spring and summer at the South Pole: (1) Circular depressions that are approximately ten meters deep and hundreds of meters in diameter. They are found only within the residual polar cap, the part that survives the summer. The high areas between the depressions are flat-topped mesas whose sides are concave circular arcs. In some places the depressions form patterns that exhibit north-south symmetry, suggesting some control by sunlight; (2) Dark layers that are exposed on the walls of the mesas. Each layer is at most a few meters thick. The dark layers might accumulate during climatic episodes of high atmospheric dust content, or they might accumulate during the annual cycling of dusty CO2; (3) Albedo differences that develop during the summer within the residual cap. These include subtle darkening of the floors of the depressions relative to the mesas and occasional major darkening of the floors, especially near the edge of the cap. The floors and mesas form a distinct stratum, suggesting they represent a distinct compositional boundary. For instance the floors may be water and the mesas may be CO2; (4) Small dark features that appear in spring on the seasonal frost outside the residual cap. Some of the features have parallel tails that are clearly shaped by the wind. Others are more symmetric, like dark snowflakes, with multiple branching arms. After the CO2 frost has disappeared the arms are seen as troughs and the centers as topographic lows; (5) Polygons whose sides are dark troughs. Those that are outside the residual cap seem to disappear when the frost disappears. The polygons and the dark snowflakelike structures may be related, and suggest that CO2 frost may form cohesive slabs; (6) Irregular depressions outside the residual cap. They look like degraded versions of the circular depressions inside the residual cap, and may be a remnant of the cap's changing location; and (7) Areas of burial and exhumation of circular depressions. Thomas et al. give an example with a sharp boundary: On one side the depressions are buried and on the other side they are exposed. In other cases there are rounded troughs up to one kilometer wide, which are dark in summer and appear to have eroded down below the floor of the circular depressions.

Ingersoll, A. P.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Studying Turbulence Using Numerical Simulation Databases, 8. Proceedings of the 2000 Summer Program

The eighth Summer Program of the Center for Turbulence Research took place in the four-week period, July 2 to July 27, 2000. This was the largest CTR Summer Program to date, involving forty participants from the U. S. and nine other countries. Twenty-five Stanford and NASA-Ames staff members facilitated and contributed to most of the Summer projects. Several new topical groups were formed, which reflects a broadening of CTR's interests from conventional studies of turbulence to the use of turbulence analysis tools in applications such as optimization, nanofluidics, biology, astrophysical and geophysical flows. CTR's main role continues to be in providing a forum for the study of turbulence and other multi-scale phenomena for engineering analysis. The impact of the summer program in facilitating intellectual exchange among leading researchers in turbulence and closely related flow physics fields is clearly reflected in the proceedings.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2002

Summer of Seasons Workshop Program for Emerging Educators in Earth System Science

Norfolk State University BEST Lab successfully hosted three Summer of Seasons programs from 1998-2001. The Summer of Seasons program combined activities during the summer with additional seminars and workshops to provide broad outreach in the number of students and teachers who participated. Lessons learned from the each of the first two years of this project were incorporated into the design of the final year's activities. The "Summer of Seasons" workshop program provided emerging educators with the familiarity and knowledge to utilize in the classroom curriculum materials developed through NASA sponsorship on Earth System Science. A special emphasis was placed on the use of advanced technologies to dispel the commonly held misconceptions regarding seasonal, climactic and global change phenomena.

Chaudhury, S. Raj↗
NASA NTRS2008

Summer Sea Ice Motion from the 18 GHz Channel of AMSR-E and the Exchange of Sea Ice between the Pacific and Atlantic Sectors

We demonstrate that sea ice motion in summer can be derived reliably from the 18GHz channel of the AMSR-E instrument on the EOS Aqua platform. The improved spatial resolution of this channel with its lower sensitivity to atmospheric moisture seems to have alleviated various issues that have plagued summer motion retrievals from shorter wavelength observations. Two spatial filters improve retrieval quality: one reduces some of the microwave signatures associated with synoptic-scale weather systems and the other removes outliers. Compared with daily buoy drifts, uncertainties in motion are approx.3-4 km/day. Using the daily motion fields, we examine five years of summer ice area exchange between the Pacific and Atlantic sectors of the Arctic Ocean. With the sea-level pressure patterns during the summer of 2006 and 2007 favoring the export of sea ice into the Atlantic Sector, the regional outflow is approx.21% and approx.15% of the total sea ice retreat in the Pacific sector.

sea ice motion↗
NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Summer and Winter California Central Valley Aerosol Distributions from Lidar and MODIS Measurements

Aerosol distributions from two aircraft lidar campaigns conducted in the California Central Valley are compared in order to identify seasonal variations. Aircraft lidar flights were conducted in June 2003 and February 2007. While the ground PM(sub 2.5) concentration is highest in the winter, the aerosol optical depth measured from MODIS is highest in the summer. A seasonal comparison shows that PM(sub 2.5) in the winter can exceed summer PM(sub 2.5) by 55%, while summer AOD exceeds winter AOD by 43%. Higher temperatures and wildfires in the summer produce elevated aerosol layers that are detected by satellite measurements, but not surface particulate matter monitors. Temperature inversions, especially during the winter, contribute to higher PM(sub 2.5) measurements at the surface. Measurements of the boundary layer height from lidar instruments provide valuable information need to understand the relationship between satellite measurements of optical depth and in-situ measurements of PM(sub 2.5).

Lewis, Jasper↗
NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Summer and Winter California Central Valley Aerosol Distributions from Lidar and MODIS Measurements

Aerosol distributions from two aircraft lidar campaigns conducted in the California Central Valley are compared in order to identify seasonal variations. Aircraft lidar flights were conducted in June 2003 and February 2008. While the PM2.5 concentration is highest in the winter, the aerosol optical depth measured from MODIS is highest in the summer. A seasonal comparison shows that PM2.5 in the winter can exceed summer PM2.5 by 55%, while summer AOD exceeds winter AOD by 43%. Higher temperatures wildfires in the summer produce elevated aerosol layers that are detected by satellite measurements, but not surface particulate matter monitors. Measurements of the boundary layer height from lidar instruments are necessary to incorporate satellite measurements with air quality measurements.

Lewis, Jasper R., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Inter-Hemispheric Coupling During Northern Polar Summer Periods of 2002-2010 using TIMED/SABER Measurements

It has been found that for more than one polar summer season between 2002-2010, the northern polar mesospheric region near and above about 80 km was warmer than normal. The strongest warming effect of this type was observed to occur during northern summer 2002. Theoretical studies have implied that these "anomalies" were preceded by unusual dynamical processes in the southern hemisphere. We have analyzed temperature distributions measured by the SABER limb scanning infrared radiometer aboard the NASA TIMED satellite between 2002-2010 at altitudes from 15 to 110 km and for latitudes between 83 S to 83 N. We describe the approach to trace the inter-hemispheric temperature correlations demonstrating the global features that were unique for the "anomalous" northern polar summers. From our analysis of SABER data from 2002-2010, the anomalous heating for the northern mesopause region during northern summer was accompanied by stratospheric heating in the equatorial region. In the winter hemisphere it is accompanied by heating in the lower stratosphere and mesopause region, and cooling in the stratopause region. Also, all the elements of the temperature anomaly structure appear to develop and fade away nearly simultaneously, thereby suggesting either a global influence or a rapid exchange.

Goldberg, Richard A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of the Quasi-Two Day Wave in the Northern Hemisphere Summer Mesosphere

This study uses global synoptic meteorological fields from a high-altitude data assimilation system to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of the quasi-2 day wave (Q2DW) and migrating diurnal tide during the Northern Hemisphere summers of 2007, 2008, and 2009. By applying a 2-dimensional fast Fourier transform to meridional wind and temperature fields, we are able to identify Q2DW source regions and to diagnose propagation of Q2DW activity into the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere. We find that Q2DW is comprised primarily of westward propagating zonal wavenumber 3 and wavenumber 4 components that originate from within baroclinically unstable regions along the equatorward flank of the summer midlatitude easterly jet. Amplitude variations of wavenumbers 3 and 4 tend to be anti-correlated throughout the summer, with wavenumber 3 maximizing in July and wavenumber 4 maximizing in late June and early August. Monthly mean Q2DW amplitudes between 30 50N latitude are largest when diurnal tidal amplitudes are smallest and vice versa. However, there is no evidence of any rapid amplification of the Q2DW via nonlinear interaction with the diurnal tide. Instead, variations of Q2DW amplitudes during July are closely linked to variations in the strength and location of the easterly jet core from one summer to the next, with a stronger jet producing larger Q2DW amplitudes. Linear instability model calculations based on the assimilated wind fields find fast growing zonal wavenumber 3 and 4 modes with periods near 2 days in the vicinity of the easterly jet.

Two day wave↗
NASA NTRS2015

Lidar Observations of Atmospheric CO2 Column During 2014 Summer Flight Campaigns

Advanced knowledge in atmospheric CO2 is critical in reducing large uncertainties in predictions of the Earth' future climate. Thus, Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) from space was recommended by the U.S. National Research Council to NASA. As part of the preparation for the ASCENDS mission, NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) and Exelis, Inc. have been collaborating in development and demonstration of the Intensity-Modulated Continuous-Wave (IM-CW) lidar approach for measuring atmospheric CO2 column from space. Airborne laser absorption lidars such as the Multi-Functional Fiber Laser Lidar (MFLL) and ASCENDS CarbonHawk Experiment Simulator (ACES) operating in the 1.57 micron CO2 absorption band have been developed and tested to obtain precise atmospheric CO2 column measurements using integrated path differential absorption technique and to evaluate the potential of the space ASCENDS mission. This presentation reports the results of our lidar atmospheric CO2 column measurements from 2014 summer flight campaign. Analysis shows that for the 27 Aug OCO-2 under flight over northern California forest regions, significant variations of CO2 column approximately 2 ppm) in the lower troposphere have been observed, which may be a challenge for space measurements owing to complicated topographic condition, heterogeneity of surface reflection and difference in vegetation evapotranspiration. Compared to the observed 2011 summer CO2 drawdown (about 8 ppm) over mid-west, 2014 summer drawdown in the same region measured was much weak (approximately 3 ppm). The observed drawdown difference could be the results of the changes in both meteorological states and the phases of growing seasons. Individual lidar CO2 column measurements of 0.1-s integration were within 1-2 ppm of the CO2 estimates obtained from on-board in-situ sensors. For weak surface reflection conditions such as ocean surfaces, the 1- s integrated signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of lidar measurements at 11 km altitude reached 376, which was equivalent to a 10-s CO2 error 0.33 ppm. For the entire processed 2014 summer flight campaign data, the mean differences between lidar remote sensed and in-situ estimated CO2 values were about -0.013 ppm. These results indicate that current laser absorption lidar approach could meet space measurement requirements for CO2 science goals.

Lin, Bing↗
NASA NTRS2015

Winter-to-Summer Precipitation Phasing in Southwestern North America: A Multi-Century Perspective from Paleoclimatic Model-Data Comparisons

The phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25 deg W-107.75 deg W, 30 deg N-35.25 deg N-NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.

Variability↗
NASA NTRS2017

Inter-Relationship Between Subtropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, and the North Atlantic Oscillation in Recent Summers and Winters

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated for the last 37 summers and winters (1980-2016). Lag-correlation of the STWCPSST×(-1) in spring with the NAO phase and SICBS in summer increases over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at 5 percent, while winter has strong correlations in approximately 1985-2005. Observational analysis and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments both suggest that STWCPSST warming acts to increase the Arctic geopotential height and temperature in the following season. This atmospheric response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. SIC and surface albedo tend to decrease over the Beaufort Sea in summer, linked to the positive surface net shortwave flux. Energy balance considering radiative and turbulent fluxes reveal that available energy that can heat surface is larger over the Arctic and Greenland and smaller over the south of Greenland, in response to the STWCPSST warming in spring. XXXX Arctic & Atlantic: Positive upper-level height/T anomaly over the Arctic and Greenland, and a negative anomaly over the central-eastern Atlantic, resembling the (-) phase of the NAO. Pacific: The negative height/T anomaly over the mid-latitudes, along with the positive anomaly over the STWCP, where 1degC warming above climatology is prescribed. Discussion: It is likely that the Arctic gets warm and the NAO is in the negative phase in response to the STWCP warming. But, there are other factors (e.g., internal variability) that contribute to determination of the NAO phase: not always the negative phase of the NAO in the event of STWCP warming (e.g.: recent winters and near neutral NAO in 2017 summer).

Lim, Young-Kwon↗
NASA NTRS2014

Understanding the Formation and Evolution of Water Ice Clouds in the Hellas Basin During NH Summer on Mars

Water in the atmosphere of Mars moves between the northern and southern hemispheres seasonally, with north-to-south transport during northern hemisphere (NH) summer and south-to-north transport during southern hemisphere (SH) summer. Understanding the processes that control this seasonal transport of water is critical for understanding the current climate of Mars. Because water ice clouds both track and influence atmospheric circulations on a range of spatial scales, investigations about when and why clouds form enhance our knowledge of the water cycle as a whole. We focus here on a population of clouds that has recently been observed by the MARs Color Imager (MARCI) instrument on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) to persist in the Hellas Basin throughout the majority of NH summer. Centered at 321 nm, Band 7 of the MARCI instrument is ideally suited for mapping water ice clouds on Mars because water ice is bright in the UV. It is notable that the clouds observed by MARCI in Hellas during NH summer are not as easily observed by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) on Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), which observes in the IR. We use a Global Climate Model (GCM) to investigate the dynamical mechanisms that control the formation and evolution of Hellas water ice clouds.

water ice clouds↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The effects of preconditioning on the summer sea ice thickness evolution during MOSAiC

The central role of sea ice within the Arctic climate system is clear, as is the importance of sea ice properties in the Arctic Ocean’s evolution and response to climate change. Less clear is how the history of the sea ice floe (in winter and spring) precondition the summer thickness evolution. Accurate accounting for the collective influences of processes that affect the summer sea ice thickness evolution is necessary for determining sea ice survivability and the rate of future sea ice loss. In this study, we use a satellite-derived sea ice parcel database co-located with the MOSAiC floe to explore the factors that precondition the summer sea ice thickness evolution. First. we compare the >500 collocated satellite-tracked sea ice parcels that intersected the MOSAiC drift track with observations to evaluate the satellite-derived surface energy budget and surface properties, finding agreement with correlations >0.9. Approximately 60% of the satellite tracked parcels survived the summer melt season. Secondly, we explore the spread in sea ice thickness and survivability across the satellite-tracked parcels, finding contributions from spring/summer surface albedo evolution, surface temperature, clouds, and parcel sea ice concentration. The satellite tracked sea ice parcel analysis provides insights into the spatial coherence of the factors that influence sea ice thickness evolution.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS2022

Projected Changes in Early Summer Ridging and Drought Over the Central Plains

Early summer (May–June–July; MJJ) droughts over the Central Plains are often caused by atmospheric ridging, but it is uncertain if these events will increase in frequency or if their influence on drought severity will change in a warming world. Here, we use tree-ring based reconstructions (1500–2020 CE) of MJJ ridging and 0–200 cm soil moisture with six CMIP6 model ensembles to investigate the response of Central Plains drought dynamics to a moderate warming scenario (SSP2-4.5). By the end of the 21st century (2071–2100), precipitation increases in most models during the preceding months (February–March–April), especially over the northern part of the Central Plains, while changes during MJJ are non-robust. By contrast, vapor pressure deficit increases strongly in all models, resulting in five of the six models projecting robust median soil moisture drying and all six models projecting more rapid seasonal soil moisture declines during the transition into the summer. Major ridging events increase in frequency in some models, and there is strong agreement across all models that when ridging events do occur, they will cause more severe soil moisture drought and seasonal drying at the end of the 21st century. The median multi-model response also indicates, by the end of the 21st century, that the Central Plains will experience a three-fold increase in the risk of drought events equivalent to the most extreme droughts of the last 500 years. Our results demonstrate that even moderate warming is likely to increase early summer soil moisture drought severity and risk over the Central Plains, even in the absence of robust precipitation declines, and that drought responses to major atmospheric ridging events will be significantly stronger.

Drought↗