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At least 37 records · Page 2

What Are the Similarities and Differences in Marine Boundary Layer Cloud and Drizzle Microphysical Properties During the ACE–ENA and MARCUS Field Campaigns?

This study compares macrophysical and microphysical properties of single-layered, liquid-dominant MBL clouds from the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) (above 60°S) and the ARM East North Atlantic (ENA) site during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign. A total of 1,136 (16.5% of clouds) and 6,034 5-min cloud samples are selected from MARCUS and ARM ENA in this study. MARCUS clouds have higher cloud-top heights, thicker cloud layers, larger liquid water path, and colder cloud temperatures than ENA. Thinner, warmer MBL clouds at ENA can contain higher layer-mean liquid water content due to higher cloud and ocean surface temperatures along with greater precipitable water vapor (PWV). MARCUS has a higher drizzle frequency rate (71.8%) than ENA (45.1%). Retrieved cloud and drizzle microphysical properties from each field campaign show key differences. MARCUS clouds feature smaller cloud droplets, whereas ENA clouds have larger cloud droplets, especially at the upper region of the cloud. From cloud top to cloud base, drizzle drop sizes increase while number concentrations decrease. Drizzle drop radius and number concentration decrease from cloud base to drizzle base due to net evaporation, and MARCUS' lower specific humidity leads to a higher drizzle base than ENA. In conclusion, the broader surface pressure and lower tropospheric stability (LTS) distributions during MARCUS have demonstrated that there are different synoptic patterns for selected cases during MARCUS with less PWV, while ENA is dominated by high pressure systems with nearly doubled PWV.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Extremes and Variability Surrounding Chesapeake Bay: Past, Present, and Future

Measures of extreme climate variability around Chesapeake Bay have changed over the past century (1895–2014), resulting in the need to establish new baselines for understanding future change. Here, observed climate variability is compared with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project fifth assessment climate models to evaluate ensemble model skill in this region. Observed trends include annual and seasonal declines in the percentage of cold days. Similarly, increases in the annual and seasonal percentages of warm days occurred in all seasons of the North Chesapeake (>38.2°N) but were only significant in spring and summer in the South (<38.2°N) demonstrating regional differences even at local scales. Precipitation intensity increased over the past century. Models using emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 project these trends will continue, though they have little skill in precipitation extremes. Pacific and Atlantic climate modes are generally more correlated with climate extremes than mean temperature and precipitation suggesting potential predictability in the synoptic patterns underlying the extremes. However, they also drive the need for time series at least 60-years long for establishing climate trends. This local analysis differs from regional, state level, and local 2.5° × 3.75° grid analyses, highlighting the importance of local climate assessments that consider topographic and regional weather patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TRACER Perspectives on Gulf-Breeze and Bay-Breeze Circulations and Coastal Convection

Abstract This study explores gulf-breeze circulations (GBCs) and bay-breeze circulations (BBCs) in Houston–Galveston, investigating their characteristics, large-scale weather influences, and impacts on surface properties, boundary layer updrafts, and convective clouds. The results are derived from a combination of datasets, including satellite observations, ground-based measurements, and reanalysis datasets, using machine learning, changepoint detection method, and Lagrangian cell tracking. We find that anticyclonic synoptic patterns during the summer months (June–September) favor GBC/BBC formation and the associated convective cloud development, representing 74% of cases. The main Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) site located close to the Galveston Bay is influenced by both GBC and BBC, with nearly half of the cases showing evident BBC features. The site experiences early frontal passages ranging from 1040 to 1630 local time (LT), with 1300 LT being the most frequent. These fronts are stronger than those observed at the ancillary site which is located further inland from the Galveston Bay, including larger changes in surface temperature, moisture, and wind speed. Furthermore, these fronts trigger boundary layer updrafts, likely promoting isolated convective precipitating cores that are short lived (average convective lifetime of 63 min) and slow moving (average propagation speed of 5 m s −1 ), primarily within 20–40 km from the coast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An initial state perturbation experiment with the GISS model

Monthly mean global forecasts for January 1975 have been computed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model from four slightly different sets of initial conditions - a 'control' state and three random perturbations thereof - to simulate the effects of initial state uncertainty on forecast quality. Differences among the forecasts are examined in terms of energetics, synoptic patterns and forecast statistics. The 'noise level' of the model predictions is depicted on global maps of standard deviations of sea level pressures, 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures for the set of four forecasts. Initial small-scale random errors do not appear to result in any major degradation of the large-scale monthly mean forecast beyond that generated by the model itself, nor do they appear to represent the major source of large-scale forecast error.

Spar, J.↗

Objective analysis and assimilation of observational data from FGGE

An objective analysis scheme is presented for the assimilation of meteorological data in which wind, geopotential height, and relative humidity are analyzed on mandatory pressure levels, and surface pressure and temperature are reduced to sea level for analysis. The present analysis/forecast system demonstrates a reasonable degree of forecast skill over the Northern Hemisphere for an ensemble of five-day integrations during the First Special Observing Period of the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) The vertical motion field shows outstanding agreement with the large scale synoptic pattern for the sample analysis presented, and the mean meridional circulation portrayed in the FGGE analysis is in close agreement with observational estimates.

Baker, W. E.↗

An evaluation of soundings, analyses and model forecasts derived from TIROS-N and NOAA-6 satellite data

TIROS-N and NOAA-6 temperature soundings over North America during three days in January 1980, and synoptic analyses and numerical-model forecasts derived from them, are compared with conventional data and analyses from NMC's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM). The collocated sounding comparison revealed significant errors, especially near the surface and the tropopause. Satellite-derived thermal gradients were found to be weak, and thickness-analysis difference fields to propagate eastward, suggesting that sounding errors are correlated with synoptic patterns. The same pattern of anomalies is seen in the model forecasts. More detailed determinations of the correlation detected here could be used to optimize the assimilation of satellite soundings to conventional data.

Koehler, T. L.↗

Case studies of NOAA 6/TIROS N data impact on numerical weather forecasts

The impact of satellite temperatures from systems which predate the launching of the third generation of vertical sounding instruments aboard TIROS N (13 Oct 1978) and NOAA 6 (27 June 1979) is reported. The first evaluation of soundings from TIROS N found that oceanic, cloudy retrievals over NH mid latitudes show a cold bias in winter. It is confirmed for both satellite systems using a larger data base. It is shown that RMS differences between retrievals and colocated radiosonde observations within the swath 30-60N during the 1979-80 winter were generally 2-3K in clear air and higher for cloudy columns. A positive impact of TIROS N temperatures on the analysis of synoptic weather systems is shown. Analyses prepared from only satellite temperatures seemed to give a better definition to weather systems' thermal structure than that provided by corresponding NMC analyses without satellite data. The results of a set of 14 numerical forecast experiments performed with the PE model of the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) are summarized; these were designed to test the impact of TIROS N and NOAA 6 temperatures within the IMS analysis and forecast cycle. The satellite data coverage over the NH, the mean area/period S1 and RMS verification scores and the spatial distribution of SAT versus NO SAT forecast differences are discussed and it is concluded that positive forecast impact occurs over ocean areas where the extra data improve the specification which is otherwise available from conventional observations. The forecast impact for three cases from the same set of experiments was examined and it is found that satellite temperatures, observed over the Atlantic Ocean contribute to better forecasts over Iceland and central Europe although a worse result was verified over Spain. It is also shown that the better scores of a forecast based also on satellite data and verified over North America actually represent a mixed impact on the forecast synoptic patterns. A superior 48 hr 500 mb forecast over the western US due to the better initial specification afforded by satellite observed temperatures over the North Pacific Ocean is shown.

Druyan, L. M.↗

The synoptic setting and possible energy sources for mesoscale wave disturbances

Published data on 13 cases of mesoscale wave disturbances and their environment were examined to isolate common features for these cases and to determine possible energy sources for the waves. These events are characterized by either a singular wave of depression or wave packets with periods of 1-4 h, horizontal wavelengths of 50-500 km, and surface-pressure perturbation amplitudes of 0.2-7.0 mb. These wave events are shown to be associated with a distinct synoptic pattern (including the existence of a strong inversion in the lower troposphere and the propagation of a jet streak toward a ridge axis in the upper troposphere) while displaying little correlation with the presence of convective storm cells. The observed development of the waves is consistent with the hypothesis that the energy source needed to initiate and sustain the wave disturbances may be related to a geostrophic adjustment process associated with upper-tropospheric jet streaks.

Uccellini, Louis W.↗

Stratospheric temperature-ozone relationships 1978-1986

Global stratospheric temperature and geopotential height at eight pressure levels (70, 50, 30, 10, 5, 2, 1, and 0.4 hPa) were derived at NMC daily since October 1978. These fields are based on NOAA operational satellite sounder information. Comparable daily global fields of stratospheric ozone (30 to 0.4 hPa and total ozone) were derived from the SBUV instrument on Nimbus 7 and are now derived from the operational NOAA SBUV/2 instrument. The ozone and meteorological fields are verified against ground based measurements (Umkehr, balloon, rocket, lidar) to determine fields of temperature and ozone was assembled. Some of the interesting features of correlation between the synoptic patterns of the two data sets as well as their change with time are discussed. Seasonal as well as interannual variations in the patterns of correlation are compared in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere polar regions. Other outstanding features in both the temperature and ozone fields are highlighted.

Gelman, M. E.↗

A case study of analyzed versus satellite-derived water vapor distributions over the Atlantic Ocean

The paper compares two estimates (one derived from the ECMF analysis and the other from the DMSP Special Sensor Microwave/Imager, SSM/I) of precipitable water content (PWC) over the North Atlantic Ocean during a period of intense cyclone and frontal activity between September 20 and 29, 1987, when two tropical cyclones, Dennis and Emily, moved into midlatitudes and took on extratropical characteristics. The values from the ECMWF analyses consisted of vertical integrals of specific humidity from 1000-300 mb, on a 2.5-deg latitude/longitude grid. The PWC values from the SSM/I were computed using the technique described by Wentz (1983) and were based on retrievals at increments of 25 km. The two distributions of PWC showed very good agreement with each other and with the synoptic patterns depicted.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

A season of heat, water vapor, total hydrocarbon, and ozone fluxes at a subarctic fen

High-latitude environments are thought to play several critical roles in the global balance of radiatively active trace gases. Adequate documentation of the source and sink strengths for trace gases requires long time series of detailed measurements, including heat and moisture budgets. A fen near Schefferville, Quebec, was instrumented during the summer of 1990 for the measurement of the surface energy, radiation, and moisture balances as well as for eddy correlation estimates of ozone and methane flux. Despite the limited fetch at this site, analysis of the tower flux 'footprint' indicates that at least 80% of the flux observed originates from sources within the fen. Sensible heat fluxes averaged 25% of the daytime net radiation at the site, while the latent heat flux, determined from the energy balance, was 63%; the Bowen ratio varied from 0.2 to 0.8 from day to day, without a seasonal trend to the variation. The competing effects of rooted macrophyte development (with concomitant effects on roughness and transpiration) and the normal shift in synoptic pattern around day 200 to warm, dry conditions results in a lack of net seasonal effect on the energy partitioning. Over the period from days 170 to 230, the evaporation (167 mm) was double the rainfall, while the decline in water level was 107 mm, leaving a net runoff of 0.44 mm/d. The total hydrocarbon flux was 75-120 mg m(exp -2)/d, following a diurnal pattern similar to heat or moisture flux, while the daytime ozone flux was about -1.11 x 10(exp 11) molecules cm(exp -2)/s. A period near the end of the experiment, during week 30, produced the strongest total hydrocarbon flux, associated with warmer deep (1 m) soil temperatures, lower fen water levels, and the late summer shift in wind direction at that time. An early summer 'flush' of total hydrocarbon was not observed.

Moore, Kathleen E.↗

Equatorial wave activity derived from fluctuations in observed convection

The spectrum of equatorial wave activity propagating vertically into the stratosphere is calculated from high-resolution imagery of the global convective pattern. Synoptic Global Cloud Imagery (GCI), constructed from six satellites simultaneously observing the earth, is used to diabatically force the linearized primitive equations. Having resolution of 0.5 deg and 3 h, that imagery captures the dominant scales of organized convection, including several harmonics of the diurnal cycle. Its global coverage with high space-time resolution allows the GCI to represent heating variability and dynamical behavior excited by it over a wide range of scales. The dynamical response above the heating is evaluated globally in terms of a space-time spectrum of Hough modes, one which includes planetary-scale Kelvin waves, Rossby waves, and gravity waves down to the resolution of the GCI. The geopotential response, which is indicative of temperature fluctuations observed by satellite, is very red in frequency. Therefore, planetary-scale waves with periods longer than two days dominate the spectrum of geopotential, while high-frequency gravity waves make a comparatively small contribution. Some 80% of the geopotential variance is accounted for by the Kelvin and gravest-symmetric Rossby modes, while the Rossby-gravity mode is comparatively weak. In horizontal eddy motion, the excited wave spectrum is still dominated by planetary-scale components. However, meridional wind fluctuations associated with the Rossby-gravity mode have variance comparable to that of zonal wind fluctuations associated with the Kelvin mode, even though the Rossby-gravity mode is nearly invisible in the geopotential response. Estimates of tropospheric heating lead to amplitudes and propagation characteristics that are broadly consistent with satellite and radiosonde observations of wave activity in the lower stratosphere. The space-time spectrum of EP flux is significantly whiter than the response in either geopotential or motion. Gravity waves of small scale and high frequency carry a large fraction of the upward flux. Although it dominates eastward variance of geopotential and motion, the Kelvin mode carries only about 50% of the eastward EP flux at phase speeds of 20-40 m/s and only 35% of the total eastward flux transmitted to the stratosphere. The remainder is carried by the gravity wave spectrum, which carries nearly all of the westward flux at phase speeds greater than 20 m/s. The gravity wave spectrum also contributes significantly at phase speeds of 10-20 m/s, where only 25% of the flux is accounted for by zonal wavenumbers less than 20. The broad nature of the gravity wave spectrum suggests its absorption at critical levels will be distributed over a deep layer of the middle atmosphere.

Bergman, John W.↗

NASA Applied Sciences' DEVELOP National Program: Summer 2010 Florida Agriculture

The main agricultural areas in South Florida are located within the fertile land surrounding Lake Okeechobee. The Atlantic Watershed monthly rainfall anomalies showed a weak but statistically significant correlation to the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI). No other watershed s anomalies showed significant correlations with ONI or the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). During La Nina months, less sea breeze days and more disturbed days were found to occur compared to El Nino and neutral months. The increase in disturbed days can likely by attributed to the synoptic pattern during La Nina, which is known to be favorable for tropical systems to follow paths that affect South Florida. Overall, neither sea breeze rainfall patterns nor total rainfall patterns in South Florida s main agricultural areas were found to be strongly influenced by the El Nino Southern Oscillation during our study time.

Cooley, Zachary C.↗

Impacts of Aerosol Direct Effects on the South Asian Climate: Assessment of Radiative Feedback Processes Using Model Simulations and Satellite/Surface Measurements

Current assessment of aerosol radiative effect is hindered by our incomplete knowledge of aerosol optical properties, especially absorption, and our current inability to quantify physical and microphysical processes. In this research, we investigate direct aerosol radiative effect over heavy aerosol loading areas (e.g., Indo-Gangetic Plains, South/East Asia) and its feedbacks on the South Asian climate during the pre-monsoon season (March-June) using the Purdue Regional Climate Model (PRCM) with prescribed aerosol data derived by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5). Our modeling domain covers South and East Asia (60-140E and 0-50N) with spatial resolutions of 45 km in horizontal and 28 layers in vertical. The model is integrated from 15 February to 30 June 2008 continuously without nudging (i.e., only forced by initial/boundary conditions). Two numerical experiments are conducted with and without the aerosol-radiation effects. Both simulations are successful in reproducing the synoptic patterns on seasonal-to-interannual time scales and capturing a pre-monsoon feature of the northward rainfall propagation over Indian region in early June which shown in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation. Preliminary result suggests aerosol-radiation interactions mainly alter surface-atmosphere energetics and further result in an adjustment of the vertical temperature distribution in lower atmosphere (below 700 hPa). The modifications of temperature and associated rainfall and circulation feedbacks on the regional climate will be discussed in the presentation.

Wang, Sheng-Hsiang↗

Analysis of the Warmest Arctic Winter, 2015-2016

December through February 2015-2016 defines the warmest winter season over the Arctic in the observational record. Positive 2m temperature anomalies were focused over regions of reduced sea ice cover in the Kara and Barents Seas and southwestern Alaska. A third region is found over the ice-covered central Arctic Ocean. The period is marked by a strong synoptic pattern which produced melting temperatures in close proximity to the North Pole in late December and anomalous high pressure near the Taymyr Peninsula. Atmospheric teleconnections from the Atlantic contributed to warming over Eurasian high-latitude land surfaces, and El Niño-related teleconnections explain warming over southwestern Alaska and British Columbia, while warm anomalies over the central Arctic are associated with physical processes including the presence of enhanced atmospheric water vapor and an increased downwelling longwave radiative flux. Preconditioning of sea ice conditions by warm temperatures affected the ensuing spring extent.

Barents and Kara Seas↗

Overview and Statistical Analysis of Boundary Layer Clouds and Precipitation Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean

Due to their fast evolution and large natural variability in macro- and microphysical properties, the accurate representation of boundary layer clouds in current climate models remains a challenge. One of the regions with large intermodel spread in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 ensemble is the western North Atlantic Ocean. Here, statistically representative in situ measurements can help to develop and constrain the parameterization of clouds in global models. To this end, we performed comprehensive measurements of boundary layer clouds, aerosol, trace gases, and radiation in the western North Atlantic Ocean during the NASA Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) mission. In total, 174 research flights with 574 flight hours for cloud and precipitation measurements were performed with the HU-25 Falcon during three winter (February–March 2020, January–April 2021, and November 2021–March 2022) and three summer seasons (August–September 2020, May–June 2021, and May–June 2022). Here we present a statistical evaluation of 16 140 individual cloud events probed by the fast cloud droplet probe and the two-dimensional stereo cloud probe during 155 research flights in a representative and repetitive flight strategy allowing for robust statistical data analyses. We show that the vertical profiles of distributions of the liquid water content and the cloud droplet effective diameter (ED) increase with altitude in the marine boundary layer. Due to higher updraft speeds, higher cloud droplet number concentrations (N liquid ) were measured in winter compared to summer despite lower cloud condensation nucleus abundance. Flight cloud cover derived from statistical analysis of in situ data is reduced in summer and shows large variability. This seasonal contrast in cloud coverage is consistent with a dominance of a synoptic pattern in winter that favors conditions for the formation of stratiform clouds at the western edge of cyclones (post-cyclonic). In contrast, a dominant summer anticyclone is concomitant with the occurrence of shallow cumulus clouds and lower cloud coverage. The evaluation of boundary layer clouds and precipitation in the N liquid ED phase space sheds light on liquid, mixed-phase, and ice cloud properties and helps to categorize the cloud data. Ice and liquid precipitation, often masked in cloud statistics by a high abundance of liquid clouds, is often observed throughout the cloud. The ACTIVATE in situ cloud measurements provide a wealth of cloud information useful for assessing airborne and satellite remote-sensing products, for global climate and weather model evaluations, and for dedicated process studies that address precipitation and aerosol–cloud interactions.

Aerosol↗

Forecasting Cool Season Daily Peak Winds at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and 6) strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft. The forecast tool was developed as a graphical user interface with Microsoft Excel to help the forecaster enter the variables, and run the appropriate regression equations. Based on the forecaster's input and regression equations, a forecast of the day's peak and average wind is generated and displayed. The application also outputs the probability that the peak wind speed will be ^ 35 kt, 50 kt, and 60 kt.

Barrett, Joe, III↗

Improved Diagnosis of Precipitation Type with LightGBM Machine Learning

Abstract Existing precipitation-type algorithms have difficulty discerning the occurrence of freezing rain and ice pellets. These inherent biases are not only problematic in operational forecasting but also complicate the development of model-based precipitation-type climatologies. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM)-based machine learning precipitation-type algorithm that utilizes reanalysis and surface observations. By comparing it with the Bourgouin precipitation-type algorithm as a baseline, we demonstrate that our algorithm improves the critical success index (CSI) for all examined precipitation types. Moreover, when compared with the precipitation-type diagnosis in reanalysis, our algorithm exhibits increased F1 scores for snow, freezing rain, and ice pellets. Subsequently, we utilize the algorithm to compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. The resulting climatology pattern aligns well with observations; however, a significant mean bias is observed. We interpret this bias to be influenced by both the algorithm itself and assumptions regarding precipitation processes, which include biases associated with freezing drizzle, precipitation occurrence, and regional synoptic weather patterns. To mitigate the overall bias, we propose increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h −1 , as it better reflects the precision of precipitation observations. This adjustment yields a substantial reduction in the overall bias. Finally, given the strong performance of LightGBM in predicting mixed precipitation episodes, we anticipate that the algorithm can be effectively utilized in operational settings and for diagnosing precipitation types in climate model outputs. Significance Statement Freezing rain can have significant impacts on transportation and infrastructure, making accurate prediction of precipitation types crucial. In this study, we use a machine learning method known as LightGBM to predict precipitation types. We show that the new algorithm performs better than the existing methods for all precipitation types examined. Additionally, we compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. Although the resulting climatology pattern corresponds well to observations, the algorithm overpredicts freezing-rain occurrence. We argue that this bias can be substantially reduced by increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h −1 . Overall, this work highlights the potential of the LightGBM algorithm for both weather forecasting and diagnosing precipitation types in climate models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗