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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

De-Risking Large-Scale PV Systems Through Data Analytics

Large-scale photovoltaic system performance analysis is being conducted within the US Department of Energy's-sponsored PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative. This collaboration with commercial PV system owners collects and evaluates PV field performance data, and provides reports on aggregated results. Drawing on over 2200 sites across the US and over 24,000 separate PV inverters we have collected in excess of 8.3 gigawatts (GW) of performance data, representing 6-7% of the entire US installed PV capacity. A mixture of utility-scale and large commercial systems are represented, averaging 4.1 megawatts (MW) in size and 5 years in age. Initial results show average system degradation rates at -0.75% / year, which is slightly higher than historically reported module-level values of -0.5%/year. We also found that the availability of systems averaged 97.7%, which is lower than the typical 99% uptime assumed by many project economic forecasts. Given these results, we compared monthly performance with expected production values, based on satellite weather data and a simple PVWatts performance model. We found that systems were performing within 10% of monthly expectation over 90% of the time, with a fleet average vs expected monthly value of 0.994. We also evaluated the impact of extreme weather events on system performance, and found a range of short-term and longer-term performance effects ranging from grid outage, system downtime, module damage and accelerated long-term degradation rate.

analysis↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Systematic Review and Integrated Approach to Modeling of Aging Utility Scale PV Systems

The growing deployment of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems has increased the importance of techno-economic modeling operational photovoltaic (PV) systems for predicting energy yield, optimizing asset management, and informing financial decisions. Through a systematic review of literature and current industry practices, we review the different common modeling practices of a system's configuration and age, performance and degradation, operation and maintenance (O&M), while also focusing on specific considerations for repowering, revamping, and decommissioning. Building on the synthesis, we develop a structured framework for techno-economic modeling of operating PV systems that integrate performance and degradation analysis, a decommissioning and repowering cost model that estimates the system's end-of-life costs to reduce uncertainty quantifications and improve consistency across the sector. This research contributes to improved modeling methodologies and potentially to reduced financial performance requirements by providing practitioners with input resources and practical approaches to estimate performance, degradation, and costs associated with continued operation, revamping, repowering, or decommissioning decisions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low‐dimensional manifold learning for uncertainty quantification in complex multi‐scale stochastic systems

Broadly speaking, the goals of the project are to develop techniques to use manifold learning to develop reduced‐order and surrogate models for "hyper‐reduction" of very high‐dimensional complex multi‐scale systems. This is being achieved by employing a newly proposed form of manifold projection and learning that leverages recent advancements in computational geometry and data‐driven modeling. In particular, we are applying a manifold projection technique to project the solutions of very high‐dimensional systems onto the so‐called Grassmannmanifold, a Reimannian manifold comprised of orthonormal matrices. We then apply data‐driven machine learning techniques to classify the solutions on the manifold (e.g. clustering techniques) according to their proximity on the manifold and leverage a further nonlinear dimension reduction to organize the structured data on the manifold. Finally, we are developing novel techniques that enable us to directly interpolate the hyper‐reduced data such that we can predict the solution of the complex, high‐ dimensional system without need to call the full expensive computational model. Given their adherence to the underlying structure of the solution of the physical system, it is expected that these approximate solutions will be sufficiently constrained so as to (approximately) adhere to physical principles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards intelligent emergency control for large-scale power systems: Convergence of learning, physics, computing and control

Here, this paper has delved into the pressing need for intelligent emergency control in large-scale power systems, which are experiencing significant transformations and are operating closer to their limits with more uncertainties. Learning-based control methods are promising and have shown effectiveness for intelligent power system control. However, when they are applied to large-scale power systems, there are multifaceted challenges such as scalability, adaptiveness, and security posed by the complex power system landscape, which demand comprehensive solutions. The paper first proposes and instantiates a convergence framework for integrating power systems physics, machine learning, advanced computing, and grid control to realize intelligent grid control at a large scale. Our developed methods and platform based on the convergence framework have been applied to a large (more than 3000 buses) Texas power system, and tested with 56 000 scenarios. Our work achieved a 26% reduction in load shedding on average and outperformed existing rule-based control in 99.7% of the test scenarios. The results demonstrated the potential of the proposed convergence framework and DRL-based intelligent control for the future grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

ICALEPCS 2025: Managing Technical Debt Across Large-Scale Control Systems

This presentation provides an overview of technical debt in the context of control systems for large-scale physics facilities. We explore various forms, common causes, and potential consequences on system reliability, maintainability, and extensibility. Drawing on experiences from multiple projects, including the ACORN control system modernization at Fermilab, we present a range of strategies for proactively managing technical debt, including best practices in design, development, testing, and documentation, as well as reactive approaches for identifying and mitigating existing issues.

Watts, Adam [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Managing technical debt across large-scale control systems

This presentation provides a comprehensive overview of technical debt in the context of control systems for large-scale physics facilities. We will explore its various forms, common causes, and potential consequences on system reliability, maintainability, and upgradability. Drawing on experiences from multiple projects, we will present a range of strategies for proactively managing technical debt, including best practices in design, development, testing, and documentation, as well as reactive approaches for identifying and mitigating existing issues. The presentation will also emphasize the importance of a collaborative approach and the use of modern tools, like fault tracking systems, to ensure the long-term health and success of control systems in our field.

Watts, Adam [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analyzing File Access Patterns on Large-Scale HPC Systems: Opportunities for File Prefetching

This paper explores the potential opportunities for implementing file prefetching techniques on large-scale high-performance computing (HPC) systems. Specifically, we investigate the file access patterns of various applications across multiple scientific domains using two years' worth of Darshan I/O traces obtained from the Summit supercomputer. We identify recurring trends and patterns which indicate that prefetching can be effectively leveraged to improve data access performance on HPC systems. This study serves as a valuable reference for system architects and developers in the HPC community, providing insights into the opportunities and challenges associated with enabling file prefetching on large-scale HPC systems.

Karimi, Ahmad Maroof↗
DOE OSTI2023

Maintaining Microstructure – The Path to Successful Technology Maturation in Fluidized Systems

Scaling circulating fluidized bed risers has been a point of contention for nearly a century. There have been numerous attempts to define various methodologies. These have all fallen short of providing a robust approach, primarily due to a lack of maintaining microstructure dynamics – a key factor in maintain interphase heat and mass transfer. Recent work by the author put forward an approach based up maintaining dynamic similarity at different scales by ensuring that the microstructure remained similar by maintaining statistical and chaotic parameters across the scale. That work relied on a dimensionless regime map in which the x-axis was defined by the ratio of the solids flux to the saturation carrying capacity. This latter property was only good within the range of the data and it became evident that extrapolation beyond the limits of the data could induce unrealistic conditions. Therefore, literature was reviewed to develop a better correlation for the saturation carrying capacity. In doing so, a critical diameter concept was developed and applied to the correlations for both Geldart Group A and B materials. The critical diameter for Geldart Group A and B materials is 0.2 m and 0.3 m, respectively. The paper then gives examples on how to use the scaling approach to maintain dynamic similarity across the scales.<br>

Breault, Ronald↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bridging confined phase behavior of CH 4 -CO 2 binary systems across scales

Phase behavior of confined fluids may deviate significantly from that of the bulk fluid due to the fluid-wall interactions being a significant portion of all intermolecular interactions under confinement. Despite recent advancements in understanding confined phase behavior of pure fluids, confined phase behavior of mixtures remains an understudied topic. In this work, we examine the confined phase behavior of a CH 4 -CO 2 binary system by combining Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, a cubic equation of state (EoS), and the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). First, the effects of confinement on density and phase distribution in nano-size pores are established using Gibbs Ensemble MC calculations, which produce precise results of liquid and vapor confined pressures and account for the modification of the phase change location. By comparing the phase envelopes of bulk and confined mixtures at a fixed temperature, here it is observed that the phase envelopes shrink with reductions in pore size. Based on this observation, we extend a modified Peng-Robinson EoS, which was originally developed for pure fluids under confinement, to mixtures via van-der-Waals-type mixing rules and by accounting for shifts in the critical properties of confined CH 4 -CO 2 . The resulting phase envelopes are in good agreement with the MC data. In addition, a local density model is used in combination with the confined EoS to calculate adsorption isotherms of CH 4 -CO 2 mixtures and to characterize the behavior of confined matter in nanopores. Finally, we incorporate this EoS in a multicomponent multiphase LBM that uses a pseudopotential model to represent intermolecular forces. This workflow utilizes multiscale simulation techniques to bridge the behavior of multicomponent systems across scales and to shed light on the confined phase behavior of CH 4 -CO 2 binary systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

An interregional optimization approach for time series aggregation in continent-scale electricity system models

Modeling electric power systems with high shares of weather-dependent resources requires tradeoffs between temporal, spatial, and operational resolution. Many studies perform time series aggregation using clustering algorithms to reduce the temporal dimension, but when modeling continent-scale electricity systems that are large enough to contain multiple independent weather systems, this approach requires large numbers of representative periods to minimize errors in regional wind and solar capacity factors. Here, a new optimization-based approach for representative period selection and weighting is introduced that minimizes regional errors in average renewable capacity factors and electricity demand. The method delivers higher regional fidelity with fewer representative periods than alternative clustering methods when applied to wind, solar, and demand profiles for the contiguous United States. When representative periods are selected from multiple weather years, the optimized method reproduces regional averages with lower error than a complete 365-day time series from any single weather year. The method identifies only representative (as opposed to outlying) periods but can be combined with an iterative "stress period" identification approach to guide efficient decision-making considering both average and high-risk weather conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of backwash settings to maximize net water production in an engineering-scale ultrafiltration system for water reuse

Ultrafiltration (UF) has been widely utilized as water pretreatment for different applications especially in water reuse. The UF system operation is characterized by a filtration phase, where particles accumulate on the membrane surface resulting in an increase in the transmembrane pressure (TMP) and a cleaning phase, where foulants are removed through cleaning cycles including physical backwash and chemical-enhanced backwash (CEB). In this study, data from an engineering-scale UF system treating reclaimed wastewater were used to assess the impact of backwashing on the filtration process. TMP backwash trigger, backwash duration, and CEB frequency were purposely varied for a cycle-by-cycle investigation on the net water production, water recovery, initial operating TMP, and filtration cycle duration. As the TMP backwash trigger was varied between 62 and 145kPa, the maximum net water production (63 m 3 /d) was achieved at 103kPa and water recovery remained relatively constant at approximately 92%. Backwash durations of 45, 65, and 85s were performed where both net water production and water recovery yielded similar results (~63 m 3 /d and ~ 91%) compared with 103kPa TMP backwash trigger. The CEB frequency was also lowered from one every three backwashes (1/3) to 1/6 and 1/12 and resulted in decreased net water production and water recovery while the initial TMP increased. Interestingly, the total number of CEBs remained approximately constant regardless of their frequency. In conclusion, results suggest that CEB is an important fouling control process to maximize water production.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Correspondence: Bill of Materials Variation and Module Degradation in Utility-Scale PV Systems

We report photovoltaic (PV) modules of the same make and model are often assembled with different bills of materials (BOMs). In this correspondence, we revisit two case studies of utility-scale silicon PV systems in which these differing BOMs were associated with faster-than-expected degradation. In one of the sites, we found that different metallization paste had been used for grid lines in some cells leading to loss of contact to the cell and severe series resistance degradation. We provide details on the observation of this mechanism at two additional sites not described in the original article. In a second case study, we found that two different types of cell had been used, and that they could be distinguished by their back contact. Cells with uniform back contacts suffered from light and elevated temperature induced degradation (LeTID), while those with local back contacts did not. We also briefly describe BOM variations observed at other sites to illustrate the extent of the challenge. Our results from both sites underscore that variations in BOM, even among modules of the same make and model can lead to reliability challenges.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

LeTID-Affected Cells from a Utility-Scale Photovoltaic System Characterized by Deep Level Transient Spectroscopy

Photovoltaic modules from a utility-scale field experienced power loss by light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation (LeTID). Samples of one of the affected monocrystalline silicon cells were cored and extracted from the module packaging and encapsulation. One of the cell fragments was processed using a regeneration cycle of applying short-circuit-rated current in forward bias at 85 degrees C for 2 weeks, while the other fragment was kept in its outdoor-degraded LeTID state. Both samples were scribed to form 2-mm diameter isolated areas using a femtosecond-pulse-width laser micromachining system. Both isolated areas contained front grid line segments which were wire bonded to larger contact pads, and the samples were probed in a cryostat linked to a deep-level transient spectroscopy (DLTS) system. Using DLTS, a majority-carrier, hole-trap defect was detected on each sample with an activation energy of 0.42 eV. The LeTID-degraded sample, however, had a larger signal corresponding to a trap density of 1.1x10^13 cm-3, which was about five times larger than the 2.1x10^12 cm-3 trap density of the regenerated sample.

charge carrier lifetime↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global 1km Land Surface Parameters for Kilometer-Scale Earth System Modeling

Earth system models (ESMs) are progressively advancing towards the kilometer scale (k-scale). However, the surface parameters for Land Surface Models (LSMs) within ESMs running at the k-scale are typically derived from coarse resolution and outdated datasets. This study aims to develop a new set of global land surface parameters with a resolution of 1 km for multiple years from 2001 to 2020, utilizing the latest and most accurate available datasets. Specifically, the datasets consist of parameters related to land use and land cover, vegetation, soil, and topography. The new land surface parameters are tailored to meet the emerging needs of k-scale LSMs and ESMs modeling with significant implications for advancing our understanding of water, carbon, and energy cycles under global change. The data is published via PNNL DataHub.

Li, Lingcheng↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global 1 km land surface parameters for kilometer-scale Earth system modeling

Earth system models (ESMs) are progressively advancing towards the kilometer scale (“k-scale”). However, the surface parameters for land surface models (LSMs) within ESMs running at the k-scale are typically derived from coarse-resolution and outdated datasets. This study aims to develop a new set of global land surface parameters with a resolution of 1 km for multiple years from 2001 to 2020, utilizing the latest and most accurate available datasets. Specifically, the datasets consist of parameters related to land use and land cover, vegetation, soil, and topography. Differences between the newly developed 1 km land surface parameters and conventional parameters emphasize their potential for higher accuracy due to the incorporation of the most advanced and latest data sources. To demonstrate the capability of these new parameters, we conducted 1 km resolution simulations using the E3SM Land Model version 2 (ELM2) over the contiguous United States. Our results demonstrate that land surface parameters contribute to significant spatial heterogeneity in ELM2 simulations of soil moisture, latent heat, emitted longwave radiation, and absorbed shortwave radiation. On average, about 31 % to 54 % of spatial information is lost by upscaling the 1 km ELM2 simulations to a 12 km resolution. Using eXplainable Machine Learning (XML) methods, the influential factors driving the spatial variability and spatial information loss of ELM2 simulations were identified, highlighting the substantial impact of the spatial variability and information loss of various land surface parameters, as well as the mean climate conditions. The comparison against four benchmark datasets indicates that ELM generally performs well in simulating soil moisture and surface energy fluxes. The new land surface parameters are tailored to meet the emerging needs of k-scale LSM and ESM modeling with significant implications for advancing our understanding of water, carbon, and energy cycles under global change. The 1 km land surface parameters are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10815170 (Li et al., 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

DOE HFTO H2IQ Hour: NREL ARIES Flatirons Campus MW-Scale Hydrogen System Research

This webinar will highlight the status and initial performance of the grid-integrated megawatt-scale hydrogen electrolysis, compression, storage, and fuel cell generator system at NREL's Flatirons campus. The presentation will also include information about on-going research using this capability as well as future areas of research asset development.

ARIES↗