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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

Natural Language Processing to Inform Agent-Based Modeling: With Application to Modeling Adoption of Medium-Duty Electric Vehicles

Agent-based socio-technical modeling of medium- and heavy-duty (MDHD) electric vehicle (EV) adoption has the potential to provide analysis, prediction, and gui. This paper describes new applications of text analysis developed through machine learning (ML) to build and understand relevant topics and their saliency in the published discourse on adoption of MDHD EVs. This work contributes to the state of the art in topic mining models by defining a new metric of topic ranking (START) that quantifies the importance of predefined topics within the corpus using weighted results for predefined topics from two topic modeling approaches: Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and BERTopic. The START metric is then demonstrated in practice to model how academia and industry view the EV adoption process based on the respective texts published by these groups. Results show that academic literature places more emphasis on categories of interests such as norms/attitudes and adopter knowledge, while trade journals tend to emphasize long-term cost more than academia. The two bodies of literature agree on the importance of policy and incentives in MDHD EV adoption. Together these results illustrate the potential to use ML-based text analysis to populate the characteristics of agent-based socio-technical models.

Electric vehicle adoption, fleet electrification, ↗

Improved scaling laws for stage inert mass of space propulsion systems. Volume 2: System modeling and weight data

Technical models and analytical approaches used to develop the weight data for vehicle system concepts using advanced technology are reported. Weight data are supplied for the following major system elements: engine, pressurization, propellant containers, structural shells and secondary structure, and environmental protection shields for the meteoroid and thermal design requirements. Scaling laws, improved and a simplified set, are developed from the system weight data. The laws consider the implications of the major design parameters and mission requirements on the stage inert mass.

Source record↗

Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) Technical Reference Manual (V.6.0)

The HyRAM+ software is an open-source toolkit that provides publicly available models and default input values to enable straightforward and consistent safety assessments for hydrogen and other alternative fuel systems, such as natural gas and propane. The HyRAM+ quantitative risk assessment calculation incorporates annual likelihood of leaks or failures for both compressed gaseous and liquefied flammable fuels, as well as probabilistic models for the effects of heat flux and overpressure. HyRAM

08 HYDROGEN↗

Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) (Technical Reference Manual V.4)

The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, methane, and propane infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ includes generic probabilities for equipment failures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and experimentally validated first-order models of release and flame physics. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards. HyRAM+ is a research software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 4.0. The most significant change for HyRAM+ version 4.0 from HyRAM version 3.1 is the incorporation of other alternative fuels, namely methane (as a proxy for natural gas) and propane into the toolkit. This change necessitated significant changes to the installable graphical user interface as well as changes to the back-end Python models. A second major change is the inclusion of physics models for the overpressure associated with the delayed ignition of an unconfined jet/plume of flammable gas.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Comparative Analysis of HEATNETS for Geothermal Network Performance

Thermal energy networks (TENs), also known as 5th generation district energy systems, or more specifically geothermal networks when exchanging heat with geothermal boreholes, are an important technology for decarbonization. In these networks an ambient loop connects buildings and thermal sources, such as a borehole field, to exchange energy and maintain a desired loop temperature. Water-source heat pumps are used at the buildings to connect to the ambient or thermal loop to meet to the building heating and cooling loads and maintain comfort. A semi-transient, reduced-order technical model and techno-economic model, called HEATNETS, has been developed at NREL that captures the flow of energy around a TEN. In this work, a comparison of the HEATNETS technical model and a well-known coding platform used for modeling geothermal networks, TRNSYS, has been completed for a proposed geothermal network as a verification and validation process. Hourly data provided from the TRNSYS simulation included building loads, pumping power, heat pump power, temperature entering and leaving the borehole field, and mass flow rates. The hourly borehole temperatures were used to create a linear regression model utilized in HEATNETS to estimate the borehole field heat exchange. The building loads and mass flow rates were direct inputs to HEATNETS while the pumping power, heat pump power, borehole temperatures, and coefficients of performance were all simulated and calculated by HEATNETS, allowing for direct comparison of the thermal energy transfer HEATNETS considers the full process from design inputs to economic outputs and can provide modeling options for high-level initial system design and operational optimization. This study focuses on a validation of HEATNETS using results from TRNSYS. HEATNETS is not intended to replace other modeling tools, but this work demonstrates, via a comparison with an industry standard code, that HEATNETS can be a unique, high-level and rapid modeling tool for estimating the performance of a full geothermal network system.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Comparative Analysis of HEATNETS for Geothermal Network Performance: Preprint

Thermal energy networks (TENs), also known as 5th generation district energy systems, or more specifically geothermal networks when exchanging heat with geothermal boreholes, are an important technology for decarbonization. In these networks an ambient loop connects buildings and thermal sources, such as a borehole field, to exchange energy and maintain a desired loop temperature. Water-source heat pumps are used at the buildings to connect to the ambient or thermal loop to meet to the building heating and cooling loads and maintain comfort. A semi-transient, reduced-order technical model and techno-economic model, called HEATNETS, has been developed at NREL that captures the flow of energy around a TEN. In this work, a comparison of the HEATNETS technical model and a well-known coding platform used for modeling geothermal networks, TRNSYS, has been completed for a proposed geothermal network as a verification process. Hourly data provided from the TRNSYS simulation included building loads, pumping power, heat pump power, temperature entering and leaving the borehole field, and mass flow rates. The hourly borehole temperatures were used to create a linear regression model utilized in HEATNETS to estimate the borehole field heat exchange. The building loads and mass flow rates were direct inputs to HEATNETS while the pumping power, heat pump power, borehole temperatures, and coefficients of performance were all simulated and calculated by HEATNETS, allowing for direct comparison of the thermal energy transfer, rather than also comparing control systems responses. HEATNETS considers the full process from design inputs to economic outputs and can provide modeling options for high-level initial system design and operational optimization. This study shows that HEATNETS, while not intended to replace other modeling tools, can be a unique modeling tool for the performance of a full geothermal network system.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Launch Complex 39 (LC-39) Gaseous Hydrogen (GH2) Vent Arm Behavior Prediction Model Review Technical Assessment Report

The NESC Assessment Team reviewed a computer simulation of the LC-39 External Tank (ET) GH2 Vent Umbilical system developed by United Space Alliance (USA) for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) and designated KSC Analytical Tool ID 451 (KSC AT-451). The team verified that the vent arm kinematics were correctly modeled, but noted that there were relevant system sensitivities. Also, the structural stiffness used in the math model varied somewhat from the analytic calculations. Results of the NESC assessment were communicated to the model developers.

Wilson, Timmy R.↗

Assessing the drivers of Isoprene SOA: laboratory studies, field observations and modeling (Final Technical Report)

This report describes the research results and products stemming from the funding award DE-SC0018221. The main goals of this project were to develop a quantitative understanding of the factors driving secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from biogenic volatile organic compounds, namely isoprene and monoterpenes, using a combination of laboratory measurements, field data analysis, and modeling. Specifically, we aimed to: 1) develop an observationally constrained volatility distribution of trace gases produced from the oxidation of biogenic hydrocarbons that can explain the formation of SOA from in situ observations made during DOE ASR/ARM field campaigns such as HI-SCALE and BAECC 2) use new and existing (e.g. DOE ASR funded SOAFFEE experiments) laboratory chamber experiments to develop detailed parameterizations of isoprene-derived epxoy diol (IEPOX) reactive uptake, including product branching, product volatility, and solubility constants, as well as SOA formation generally from the formation of highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOM) formed from isoprene and monoterpene photo-oxidation that can be directly incorporated into models. 3) collaborate with PNNL modeling teams to incorporate new parameterizations into detailed box models, such as MOSAIC, and regional or Earth System models such as WRF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Socio-Technical Threat Models

Given the adoption of emerging technologies and the increasing complexity of managing such systems with a lifecycle much shorter than that of critical infrastructure systems, there is a practical need to be able to analyze sociotechnical dependencies and their associated evolving risks. Threat models based on social influence techniques can be used to implement adversarial tactics analogous to the cyber kill chain and attested to within the MITRE ATT&CK for ICS framework including Initial Access, Persistence, Collection, and Impact. Furthermore, as with cyber disruptions, the impact of social influence threat models can have an asymmetric impact that is not spatially-localized. Finally, unlike cyber attacks with a reasonably short duration (ransomware takes days to months), social influence based attacks have the potential to persist for much longer as they are based on long-term strategic infrastructure investments within the private sector. Given the increased importance of electric vehicle charging stations as a long-term, strategic infrastructure investment within the Energy and Transportation Sectors, we provide initial results that compare the impact of a Loss of Availability (T0826) realized through cyber and social influence based threat models. The analysis employs techniques from automated reasoning and measures of network complexity to understand evolving dominance of EV payment and charging networks within geographic region of interest. Within this context, we compare the impact of a loss of availability due to ransomware versus that of loss of support due to a merger and acquisition. Results across several different metro areas will be provided.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Generation Plant Cost of Operations and Cycling Optimization Model (Final Technical Report)

Modern coal plants are a masterpiece of engineering, having been refined and improved over more than a century. As they evolved, they have grown more efficient and cleaner. At the same time, they have grown much larger and increasingly designed to operate on very specific fuels at or near the maximum capacity, providing baseload power. In recent decades, however, they have been called on to operate at reduced capacity (cycled) at a loss of efficiency and possibly accelerated wear and tear. The purpose of this project was to develop a model to accurately estimate the cost of cycling large coal plants so that they can be operated efficiently as part of a comprehensive strategy for generation planning and dispatch. The final goal is a model which is commercial-ready that can be “tuned” to different plants for widespread use.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Fundamental Studies of Soiling and Cementation of PV Cover Glass Materials: Addressing Reliability with Advanced X-ray Scattering/Spectroscopy and First Principles Modeling (Final Technical Report)

Accumulation of soils and other particulate matter on the front cover glass of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules results in transmission losses that detrimentally affect the power output of PV installations. The conventional solution to this problem is manual abrasive scrubbing of modules, which entails significant water usage and manpower. To further combat this issue, there is a concerted effort within the PV industry to develop anti-soiling (AS) coatings to mitigate power losses due to soiling of PV modules, which can exceed 35% in some cases. However, relatively little is known about the fundamental physical and chemical mechanisms that enable anti-soiling behavior. In this project, a combination of advanced X-ray analysis tools and first principles computational modeling has employed to understand the physical and chemical interactions between environmental soils and PV cover glass materials. The specific objectives were: 1) investigate soiling interactions and cementation behavior of relevant PV materials, including bare glass, conventional antireflective (AR) coatings, and a commercial AS coating, using a library of representative particulate soils, and 2) utilize first principles computational spectroscopy modeling to interpret the experimental X-ray spectroscopy measurements and determine the detailed surface chemistry changes that occur on these surfaces in the presence of soiling and cementation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

New Laboratory and Astrophysical Probes of Physics Beyond the Standard Model (Final Technical Report)

The first of these directions centers on new ideas in dark matter detection. As experimental scrutiny narrows the window for new physics at the weak scale, it has become apparent that the solution to the dark matter mystery may not reside there. Theoretical developments such as the hidden sector/valley paradigm have, at the same time, shown that compelling theories of dark matter reside below the weak scale. Searching for dark matter at lower mass scales requires looking beyond the current paradigm of dark matter direct detection based on nuclear recoils. It is the goal of this project to provide new ideas to guide the experimental program looking for light dark matter. I am actively proposing ideas for detecting dark matter as light as a meV, well beyond the current focus of GeV-TeV scale dark matter. Some of the ideas I have proposed, such as superconducting, superfluid, and polar material targets, are actively being developed into experiments. My group will provide the relevant calculations to determine dark matter reach, providing crucial input to experiment on which targets should be developed. We will also provide an effective field theory framework to understand which types of experiments are most sensitive to each interaction type. The second of these directions is on probes of dark matter substructure as a mean to constrain, or observe, models of dark matter. The standard ΛCDM paradigm assumes that the dark matter density perturbations are adiabatic, scale invariant, and produced during inflation. However, many standard models of dark matter will produce modifications of this prediction, such as axion models with symmetry broken below the inflationary scale. Remarkably, we have limited direct measurements of the dark matter clumpiness at mass scales below dwarf galaxies. This allows for the possibility of observing modifications from vanilla ΛCDM due to particle dynamics. In many cases, simulations of dark matter structure in the presence of non-scale invariant fluctu- ations are understudied or completely lacking. I plan to develop both theoretical predictions for small scale structure in models with additional matter power on small scales, as well as observa- tional probes of small scale halos or clumps. One idea I have been recently focused on is pulsar timing, though my group will pursue a variety of lensing and astrometric probes. Lastly, the most risky direction involves spacetime fluctuations from quantum gravity. I showed that if one assumes that metric fluctuations in the Minkowski vacuum, at a surface separating a region in and out of causal contact (which we call a “horizon”), are determined by standard thermodynamic considerations at horizon, these metric fluctuations are large enough to observe in an interferometer with similar sensitivity to LIGO. In a follow-up paper we showed that these assumption holds for the vacuum in AdS/CFT. In future work, I plan to connect this work to recent soft graviton results, to frame this work in a concrete Randall-Sundrum model, and to work out concrete phenomenological predictions from the model. This work unquestionably takes a less trodden path, and works well as part of a well-rounded portfolio of less and more risky ideas. Particle physics is currently at a juncture which requires bold exploration of qualitatively new directions. This proposal outlines some of my plans over the coming years in these directions, leaving room also for surprises.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Structure and Dynamics of Domains in Ferroelectric Nanostructures – Phase-Field Modeling (Final Technical Report)

Domain pattern formation is one of the most common phenomena in nature and is a topic of immense interest in many fields ranging from materials science and physics to chemistry and biology. This DOE sponsored research project explored the basic science concerning the thermodynamic stability of mesoscale polarization domain patterns and their temporal evolution mechanisms during formation and subsequent switching in ferroelectric nanostructures and heterostructures. The project employed the computational phase-field method in combination of microelasticity and electrostatic theories. The research was carried out in close collaboration with a number of experimental groups who used High Resolution Transmission Electron Microscopy (HRTEM), in situ TEM with Scanning Probe Microscopy (SPM), or Piezoresponse Force Microscopy (PFM) to characterize the domain structures and dynamics of ferroelectric thin films and heterostructures and who grow high-quality ferroelectric and multiferroic thin films using advanced growth techniques such as Molecular Beam Epitaxy (MBE), Pulsed Laser Deposition (PLLD), and sputtering. The research efforts of the project help establish the phase-field method as the most powerful method for understanding and predicting domain structures in ferroelectric thin films and nanostructures. The findings of the project led to the basic understanding of stability and switching mechanisms of ferroelectric domains under different mechanical boundary conditions and under either homogeneous capacitor configurations or local fields using metallic probes as electrodes and the emergence of charged domain walls during domain switching. The project predicted the spatial length scales, temperature ranges, and electromechanical conditions for different polar states in heterostructures and guided the discovery of both transient and stable novel polarization states containing vortex lattices in oxide superlattices. The project resulted in 134 journal publications and 6 PhD theses with all the PhD graduates currently working in either academia or industry within the United States. The basic understanding on the stability of mesoscale polar states and pattern evolution achieved by the project improved our ability to control and engineer properties of ferroelectric thin films and heterostructures for potential applications in nanoscale electronic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Technical note: Modeling spatial fields of extreme precipitation – a hierarchical Bayesian approach

Abstract. We introduce a hierarchical Bayesian model for the spatial distribution of rainfall corresponding to an extreme event of a specified duration that could be used with regional hydrologic models to perform a regional hydrologic risk analysis. An extreme event is defined if any gaging site in the watershed experiences an annual maximum rainfall event and the spatial field of rainfall at all sites corresponding to that occurrence is modeled. Applications to data from New York City demonstrate the effectiveness of the model for providing spatial scenarios that could be used for simulating loadings into the urban drainage system. Insights as to the homogeneity in spatial rainfall and its implications for modeling are provided by considering partial pooling in the hierarchical Bayesian framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Modeling and Simulation Technical Gaps in Safety Analysis of High Burnup Accident-Tolerant Fuels

The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to maintain regulatory-required levels of safety while ensuring economic competitiveness to stay in business. Safety remains a key parameter for all aspects related to the operation of light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), and it can be achieved more economically by using a risk-informed ecosystem, such as that being developed by the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. The LWRS Program is promoting a wide range of research and development activities to maximize both the safety and economically efficient performance of NPPs through improved scientific understanding, especially given that many plants are considering second license renewal. The RISA Pathway has two main goals: The deployment of methodologies and technologies that enable better representation of safety margins and the factors that contribute to cost and safety, and; The development of advanced applications that enable cost-effective plant operation. As part of the RISA Pathway, the Enhanced Resilient Plant (ERP) project refers to an NPP where safety is improved by implementing various measures, such as accident-tolerant fuels (ATF), diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX), enhancements to plant components and systems, incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, and utilization of advanced battery technologies. The objective of the ERP research is to use novel methods and computational tools to enhance existing reactors’ safety while reducing operational costs. Many U.S. utilities are targeting implementation of ATFs instead of traditional fuel in the near future since ATFs offer benefits in terms of improved performance and cost savings. The robust properties of ATF make it possible to extend the refueling cycle from 18 to 24 months in addition to the opportunity to use less of fuel. Extensive safety assessments are required to support regulatory requirements and obtain the approvals to use ATFs and the ERP project support the industry by developing novel effective methodologies for safety evaluations. In this project, the technical gaps in the modeling and simulation of the high burnup (HBU) ATF were assessed in terms of the fuel cladding behavior during the postulated accident events. The issues were identified in modeling the cladding deformation, the hydrodynamic change due to cladding deformation and the critical heat flux (CHF). The RELAP5-3D cladding deformation model was assessed by multiple verification tests and validation with the instrumented fuel assembly (IFA) experiment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗