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Technological change and productivity growth in the air transport industry
The progress of the civil air transport industry in the United States was examined in the light of a proposal of Enos who, after examining the growth of the petroleum industry, divided that phenomenon into two phases, the alpha and the beta; that is, the invention, first development and production, and the improvement phase. The civil air transport industry developed along similar lines with the technological progress coming in waves; each wave encompassing several new technological advances while retaining the best of the old ones. At the same time the productivity of the transport aircraft as expressed by the product of the aircraft velocity and the passenger capacity increased sufficiently to allow the direct operating cost in cents per passenger mile to continually decrease with each successive aircraft development.
The changing technology of rolling-element bearings.
Rolling-element bearings design and material processing for special conditions, noting stress and fatigue
Research and education in management of large- scale technical programs. Appendix A - Uses and misuses of computers in urban affairs. Appendix B - Build, a community development simulation game. Appendix C - Urban simulation and gaming, preliminary experience and perspectives. Appendix D - Public attitudes toward programs of large- scale technological change, some reflections and policy prescriptions Semiannual progress report
Research and education in management of large scale technical programs - computers in urban affairs
Nuclear Thermal Rocket (Ntr) Propulsion: A Proven Game-Changing Technology for Future Human Exploration Missions
The NTR represents the next evolutionary step in high performance rocket propulsion. It generates high thrust and has a specific impulse (Isp) of approx.900 seconds (s) or more V twice that of today s best chemical rockets. The technology is also proven. During the previous Rover and NERVA (Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Applications) nuclear rocket programs, 20 rocket reactors were designed, built and ground tested. These tests demonstrated: (1) a wide range of thrust; (2) high temperature carbide-based nuclear fuel; (3) sustained engine operation; (4) accumulated lifetime; and (5) restart capability V all the requirements needed for a human mission to Mars. Ceramic metal cermet fuel was also pursued, as a backup option. The NTR also has significant growth and evolution potential. Configured as a bimodal system, it can generate electrical power for the spacecraft. Adding an oxygen afterburner nozzle introduces a variable thrust and Isp capability and allows bipropellant operation. In NASA s recent Mars Design Reference Architecture (DRA) 5.0 study, the NTR was selected as the preferred propulsion option because of its proven technology, higher performance, lower launch mass, simple assembly and mission operations. In contrast to other advanced propulsion options, NTP requires no large technology scale-ups. In fact, the smallest engine tested during the Rover program V the 25,000 lbf (25 klbf) Pewee engine is sufficient for human Mars missions when used in a clustered engine arrangement. The Copernicus crewed spacecraft design developed in DRA 5.0 has significant capability and a human exploration strategy is outlined here that uses Copernicus and its key components for precursor near Earth asteroid (NEA) and Mars orbital missions prior to a Mars landing mission. Initially, the basic Copernicus vehicle can enable reusable 1-year round trip human missions to candidate NEAs like 1991 JW and Apophis in the late 2020 s to check out vehicle systems. Afterwards, the Copernicus spacecraft and its 2 key components, now configured as an Earth Return Vehicle / propellant tanker, would be used for a short round trip (approx.18 - 20 months)/short orbital stay (60 days) Mars / Phobos survey mission in 2033 using a split mission approach. The paper also discusses NASA s current Foundational Technology Development activities and its pre-decisional plans for future system-level Technology Demonstrations that include ground testing a small (approx.7.5 klbf) scalable NTR before the decade is out with a flight test shortly thereafter.
Developing Game Changing Technologies and Bringing Them Down to Earth
Address to entrepreneurs as a thought leader at the next upcoming seminar on 10/25/2016 at the Cardel Theater in Calgary. The technologies developed by NASA over the 60's through to today, has shaped the world as we know it, driving plastics to nano-electronics. To inspire local entrepreneurs developing new technologies.
LISA and Mass Change technology demonstration and flight experience from GRACE Follow-On
No abstract provided
Ground Software Technologies – Embracing Change: Mission Drivers and Technology Opportunities to Enable Long Lived Missions
Mission lifecycles have proven to extend well beyond their original design. The benefits to this are countless but introduce challenges in today’s rapidly changing ground infrastructure and software technologies used to enable mission success. What remains constant is the risk posture missions maintain when accepting change and the use of new technologies. Larger missions are ready for change in early lifecycle development but near launch and especially in operations, few continue to evolve beyond what is set in place in phase C. This paper will discuss how the Advance Multi-Mission Operations System (AMMOS) intends to address, three driving missions concerns: Maintaining functionality (hardware/software) for decades, rapidly responding to security vulnerabilities in software, and finally the ability to quickly evolve infrastructure and software changes. These driving concerns are briefly described below: 1. Maintaining functionality (hardware/software) for decades. Hardware updates considerably faster than 10 years ago. Expectations that a system can remain in place for more than 10 years is no longer valid. Expecting to find hardware replacements for a system older than 5 years will increasingly become more and more challenging. How than do missions plan for hardware changes for long lived missions? Principle Objective: Provide abstraction by virtualizing and containerizing software abstract away any hardware dependencies and package up the application lightweight units. 2. Rapidly responding to security vulnerabilities in software. Cost is often the main impediment and largely driven by the revalidation and testing of system that undergo change. In todays, environment security updates are a major diver demanding systems remain up to date. How then do missions accept these changes and avoid large testing efforts? Principle Objective: Help reduce the cost of re-testing by automation of testing, deployment, and compartmentalizing change. 3. Ability to quickly evolve infrastructure and software changes. Responding quickly to change is similar to the second concern in this paper regarding security vulnerabilities. In this case, it address broader concerns of updating software and infrastructure on a more realistic timeline. How do missions stay up to date with the most recent versions of software and allowing for improved functionality? Principle Objective: Use continuous integration techniques at the system level to ensure rapid turnaround. This paper explores each of these concerns in more detail. It focuses the AMMOS’s current plans, challenges and current roadmap.
Revisiting the Temporal Leontief Inverse: New Insights on the Analysis of Regional Technological Economic Change
The current availability of longer series of input-output tables, as well as the release of global input-output databases, has fostered a growing literature analyzing changes in the economic structure and their drivers. In this paper, we take advantage of these time-series by proposing a methodology designed to trace the contribution of different drivers of the change in interindustrial relationships over time. Based on the Temporal Leontief Inverse (TLI), the Extended TLI (ETLI) decomposes the economy-wide effects of changes in direct interindustrial links between years, isolating the impact of different determinants of economic (environmental, energy, etc.) spillovers according to the interests of the researcher. For example, one can explore how the multipliers of a particular industry were affected by changes in technology of other sectors and in the own sector; by changes in trade patterns in specific countries; by indirect changes in intraregional production chains in foreign nations; etc. The ETLI is illustrated by uncovering certain hidden effects not captured in a previous application of the original TLI to the Chicago region between 1980-1997.
A reappraisal of transport aircraft needs 1985 - 2000: Perceptions of airline management in a changing economic, regulatory, and technological environment
Views of the executives of 24 major, national, regional, and commuter airlines concerning the effect of recent regulatory, economic, and technological changes on the roles they see for their airlines, and consequent changes in their plans for acquiring aircraft for the 1985 to 2000 period were surveyed. Differing perceptions on the economic justification for new-technology jets in the context of the carriers' present and projected financial conditions are outlined. After examining the cases for new or intermediate size jets, the study discusses turboprop powered transports, including the carriers' potential interest in an advanced technology, high-speed turboprop or prop-fan. Finally, the implications of foreign competition are examined in terms of each carrier's evaluation of the quality and financial offerings, as well as possible 'Buy American' policy predisposition.
Sunsynchronous low Earth orbit spacecraft concepts and technology requirements for global change monitoring
The Global Change Technology Initiative listing of instruments for operation in low Earth, sunsynchronous orbits contain 21 entries, of which 20 are carried aboard multi-instrument spacecraft. This list identifies the temporal requirements for repetition of measurements and also includes groups of instruments that make complementing measurements. Definitions for individual spacecraft follows the temporal and grouping requirements to establish constellations which will provide the measurement data. The definitions of constellations for multi-instrument spacecraft show two alternatives: a constellation of 10 spacecraft, each compatible with launch by a Delta booster; a constellation of 4 spacecraft, each requiring a Titan booster. Operating subsystems for the individual spacecraft can use modular concepts that are adaptations based upon current plans for improving the performance of the NASA-Goddard Multimission Modular units. The descriptions of the spacecraft and constellations begins with a compilation of instrument related requirements that define the principal system performance parameters and operating capabilities.
PVDeg: Development of a Streamlined Tool for PV Degradation Modeling
The photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs, higher-efficiency cells, and improved module designs. These trends lead to using new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, resulting in a continually changing technological landscape. These changes can potentially introduce new, unknown degradation mechanisms and failure modes that are difficult to diagnose, analyze, test, and model. This introduces uncertainty into the expected lifetime of PV modules of 25 to 50 years. research efforts aim to achieve this while keeping performance degradation at a minimum for decades. This puts considerable pressure on improving the accuracy of long-term durability and reliability assessments. There is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. Because the core of this type of analysis involves calculations that are complicated but ubiquitous for many degradation processes, an enhanced predictive modeling framework will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this work, we present an online tool that can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. The tool will simplify many of the routine computational operations that are common to many degradation studies. The prediction tool will be built modular and published as open source, enabling users to expand on the existing framework. This repository will contain various degradation models and material parameters suitable for the reliability and durability assessment of materials and components deployed outdoors.
Industry Facing PV Degradation Prediction Tool and Database to Enable a 50-Year Life Module
The Photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs, higher-efficiency cells, and improved module designs. These trends lead to using new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, resulting in a continually changing technological landscape. These changes can potentially introduce new, unknown degradation mechanisms and failure modes that are difficult to diagnose, analyze, test, and model. This introduces uncertainty into the expected lifetime of PV modules of 25 years. Furthermore, research efforts aim for up to 50 years of service life while keeping performance degradation at a minimum for decades of outdoor weathering - putting additional pressure on improving the accuracy of long-term durability and reliability assessments. Here there is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. Because the core of this type of analysis involves calculations that are complicated but ubiquitous for many degradation processes, an enhanced predictive modeling framework will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this work, we present an online tool that can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. A graphical user interface will aid in the understanding of the results. The prediction tool will be built modular and published as open source, enabling users to expand on the existing framework. We use an integration pipeline approach that allows us to leverage weather data from the National Solar Radiation Database to perform geospatial degradation analysis in the US and worldwide. Our repository will contain various degradation models and material parameters suitable for the reliability and durability assessment of materials and components deployed outdoors. We hope to become a repository that can be used for weathering and degradation analysis for various applications beyond the PV industry.
Interplay of changing irrigation technologies and water reuse: example from the upper Snake River basin, Idaho, USA
Abstract. Careful allotment of water resources for irrigation is critical for ensuring the resiliency of agriculture in semiarid regions, and modernizing irrigation technology to minimize inefficient water losses is an important tool for farmers and agricultural economies. While modernizing irrigation technology can achieve reductions in the nonbeneficial use of water, such as bare soil evaporation and nonconsumptive losses, water returned to the landscape is also reduced, often eliminating flow paths that other users rely on. In basins using a combination of surface and groundwater, replenishing aquifer storage by the managed aquifer recharge (MAR) of seasonally available water can mitigate the aquifer drawdown that results from reduced recharge when irrigation efficiency is improved. We examine the effects of MAR on the system-scale efficiency of modernizing irrigation technology and the resulting changes in the reuse of nonconsumptive losses, using a macroscale hydrologic model applied to the semiarid upper Snake River basin (USRB) of western Wyoming and southern Idaho, USA. Irrigation technologies were represented explicitly in the model, and available data informed baseline parameterizations of the irrigation technology. A suite of parameterizations were simulated that updated the existing technologies to be more efficient, both with and without sufficient MAR to cause a stabilization of the aquifer at the present-day head. As expected, simulated changes in irrigation technology resulted in greater downstream export of pristine water and a higher rate of aquifer drawdown when MAR was not simulated. Under current water use and cropping patterns, we were not able to simulate aquifer stabilization and maintain discharge downstream at any level of irrigation efficiency. We found support for the hypothesis that, as efficiency improves, less MAR is required to maintain a stable aquifer than when return flows are reduced due to increased efficiency. To evaluate the hypothesis, we defined the management benefit as a metric that compared the difference between the change in irrigation's net recharge and the change in MAR required as irrigation technology became more efficient. The metric generally indicated that less MAR was needed than net recharge was lost, but only for the most efficient case did the management benefit exceed the MAR needed at the baseline to stabilize the aquifer. Increasing efficiency of irrigation technology reduced the reuse of the gross irrigation derived from prior nonconsumptive losses, but simulating MAR increased reuse for a given parameterization, leading to higher effective irrigation efficiency. We find that local groundwater storage that users depend on is generally more sensitive to management decisions than downstream flows, and the drawdown of the aquifer without MAR always exceeded any decrease in discharge induced by MAR. Improving resource sufficiency in semiarid systems like the USRB will require an array of solutions that will need to balance benefits to local and downstream users.
Space Technology: Game Changing Development Deep Space Engine (DSE) 100 lbf and 5 lbf Thruster Development and Qualification
Science mission studies require spacecraft propulsion systems that are high-performance, lightweight, and compact. Highly matured technology and low-cost, short development time of the propulsion system are also very desirable. The Deep Space Engine (DSE) 100-lbf thruster is being developed to meet these needs. The overall goal of this game changing technology project is to qualify the DSE thrusters along with 5-lbf attitude control thrusters for space flight and for inclusion in science and exploration missions. The aim is to perform qualification tests representative of mission duty cycles. Most exploration missions are constrained by mass, power and cost. As major propulsion components, thrusters are identified as high-risk, long-lead development items. NASA spacecraft primarily rely on 1960s' heritage in-space thruster designs and opportunities exist for reducing size, weight, power, and cost through the utilization of modern materials and advanced manufacturing techniques. Advancements in MON-25/MMH hypergolic bipropellant thrusters represent a promising avenue for addressing these deficiencies with tremendous mission enhancing benefits. DSE is much lighter and costs less than currently available thrusters in comparable thrust classes. Because MON-25 propellants operate at lower temperatures, less power is needed for propellant conditioning for in-space propulsion applications, especially long duration and/or deep-space missions. Reduced power results in reduced mass for batteries and solar panels. DSE is capable of operating at a wide propellant temperature range (between -22 F and 122 F) while a similar existing thruster operates between 45 F and 70 F. Such a capability offers robust propulsion operation as well as flexibility in design. NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center evaluated available operational Missile Defense Agency heritage thrusters suitable for the science and lunar lander propulsion systems.
Space Technology 5: Changing the Mission Design without Changing the Hardware
The Space Technology 5 (ST-5) Project is part of NASA's New Millennium Program. The validation objectives are to demonstrate the research-quality science capability of the ST-5 spacecraft; to operate the three spacecraft as a constellation; and to design, develop, test and flight-validate three capable micro-satellites with new technologies. A three-month flight demonstration phase is planned, beginning in March 2006. This year, the mission was re-planned for a Pegasus XL dedicated launch into an elliptical polar orbit (instead of the Originally-planned Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit.) The re-plan allows the mission to achieve the same high-level technology validation objectives with a different launch vehicle. The new mission design involves a revised science validation strategy, a new orbit and different communication strategy, while minimizing changes to the ST-5 spacecraft itself. The constellation operations concepts have also been refined. While the system engineers, orbit analysts, and operations teams were re-planning the mission, the implementation team continued to make progress on the flight hardware. Most components have been delivered, and the first spacecraft is well into integration and test.