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Global Carbon Budget 2016

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1(sigma), reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, ELUC 1.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr,GATM 4.5+/-0.1 GtC/yr, SOCEAN 2.6+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND 3.1+/-0.9 GtC/yr. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9+/-0.5 GtC/yr, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8/yr that took place during 2006-2015.Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, GATM was 6.3+/-0.2 GtC/yr, SOCEAN was 3.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND was 1.9+/-0.9 GtC/yr. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4+/-0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2% (range of -1.0 to +1.8% ) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565+/-55 GtC (2075+/-205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.

Quéré, Corinne Le↗

Feasibility of airborne detection of laser-induced fluorescence emissions from green terrestrial plants

The present investigation provides a demonstration of the feasibility of the airborne detection of the laser-induced fluorescence spectral emissions from living terrestrial grasses, shrubs, and trees using existing levels of lidar technology. Airborne studies were performed to ascertain system requirements necessary to detect laser-induced fluorescence from living terrestrial plants, to assess the practical acquisition of useful single-shot laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) waveforms over vegetative canopies, and to determine the comparative suitability of laser system, airborne platform, and terrestrial environmental parameters. The field experiment was conducted on May 3, 1982, over the northern portion of Wallops Island, VA. Attention is given to airborne lidar results and the description of laboratory investigations.

Hoge, F. E.↗

Filling-in of Near-infrared Solar Lines by Terrestrial Fluorescence and Other Geophysical Effects: Simulations and Space-based Observations from SCIAMACHY and GOSAT

Global mapping of terrestrial vegetation fluorescence from space has recently been accomplished with high spectral resolution (nu/nu greater than 35 000) measurements from the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SAellite (GOSAT). These data are of interest because they can potentially provide global information on the functional status of vegetation including light-use efficiency and global primary productivity that can be used for global carbon cycle modeling. Quantifying the impact of fluorescence on the O2-A band is important as this band is used for photon pathlength characterization in cloud- and aerosol-contaminated pixels for trace-gas retrievals including CO2. Here, we examine whether fluorescence information can be derived from space using potentially lower-cost hyperspectral instrumentation, i.e., more than an order of magnitude less spectral resolution (nu/nu approximately 1600) than GOSAT, with a relatively simple algorithm. We discuss laboratory measurements of fluorescence near one of the few wide and deep solar Fraunhofer lines in the long-wave tail of the fluorescence emission region, the calcium (Ca) II line at 866 nm that is observable with a spectral resolution of approximately 0.5 nm. The filling-in of the Ca II line due to additive signals from various atmospheric and terrestrial effects, including fluorescence, is simulated. We then examine filling-in of this line using the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) satellite instrument. In order to interpret the satellite measurements, we developed a general approach to correct for various instrumental artifacts that produce false filling-in of solar lines in satellite measurements. The approach is applied to SCIAMACHY at the 866 nm Ca II line and to GOSAT at 758 and 770 nm on the shoulders of the O2-A feature where there are several strong solar Fraunhofer lines that are filled in primarily by vegetation fluorescence. Finally, we compare temporal and spatial variations of SCIAMACHY additive signals with those of GOSAT and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Although the derived additive signals from SCIAMACHY are extremely weak at 866 nm, their spatial and temporal variations are consistent with chlorophyll a fluorescence or another vegetation-related source. We also show that fillingin occurs at 866 nm over some barren areas, possibly originating from luminescent minerals in rock and soil.

vegetation↗

A simple biosphere model (SiB) for use within general circulation models

A simple realistic biosphere model for calculating the transfer of energy, mass and momentum between the atmosphere and the vegetated surface of the earth has been developed for use in atmospheric general circulation models. The vegetation in each terrestrial model grid is represented by an upper level, representing the perennial canopy of trees and shrubs, and a lower level, representing the annual cover of grasses and other heraceous species. The vegetation morphology and the physical and physiological properties of the vegetation layers determine such properties as: the reflection, transmission, absorption and emission of direct and diffuse radiation; the infiltration, drainage, and storage of the residual rainfall in the soil; and the control over the stomatal functioning. The model, with prescribed vegetation parameters and soil interactive soil moisture, can be used for prediction of the atmospheric circulation and precipitaion fields for short periods of up to a few weeks.

Sellers, P. J.↗

New Methods for Retrieval of Chlorophyll Red Fluorescence from Hyperspectral Satellite Instruments: Simulations and Application to GOME-2 and SCIAMACHY

Global satellite measurements of solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) from chlorophyll over land and ocean have proven useful for a number of different applications related to physiology, phenology, and productivity of plants and phytoplankton. Terrestrial chlorophyll fluorescence is emitted throughout the red and far-red spectrum, producing two broad peaks near 683 and 736nm. From ocean surfaces, phytoplankton fluorescence emissions are entirely from the red region (683nm peak). Studies using satellite-derived SIF over land have focused almost exclusively on measurements in the far red (wavelengths greater than 712nm), since those are the most easily obtained with existing instrumentation. Here, we examine new ways to use existing hyperspectral satellite data sets to retrieve red SIF (wavelengths less than 712nm) over both land and ocean. Red SIF is thought to provide complementary information to that from the far red for terrestrial vegetation. The satellite instruments that we use were designed to make atmospheric trace-gas measurements and are therefore not optimal for observing SIF; they have coarse spatial resolution and only moderate spectral resolution (0.5nm). Nevertheless, these instruments, the Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2) and the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY), offer a unique opportunity to compare red and far-red terrestrial SIF at regional spatial scales. Terrestrial SIF has been estimated with ground-, aircraft-, or satellite-based instruments by measuring the filling-in of atmospheric andor solar absorption spectral features by SIF. Our approach makes use of the oxygen (O2) gamma band that is not affected by SIF. The SIF-free O2 gamma band helps to estimate absorption within the spectrally variable O2 B band, which is filled in by red SIF. SIF also fills in the spectrally stable solar Fraunhofer lines (SFLs) at wavelengths both inside and just outside the O2 B band, which further helps to estimate red SIF emission. Our approach is then an extension of previous approaches applied to satellite data that utilized only the filling-in of SFLs by red SIF. We conducted retrievals of red SIF using an extensive database of simulated radiances covering a wide range of conditions. Our new algorithm produces good agreement between the simulated truth and retrievals and shows the potential of the O2 bands for noise reduction in red SIF retrievals as compared with approaches that rely solely on SFL filling. Biases seen with existing satellite data, most likely due to instrumental artifacts that vary in time, space, and with instrument, must be addressed in order to obtain reasonable results. Our 8-year record of red SIF observations over land with the GOME-2 allows for the first time reliable global mapping of monthly anomalies. These anomalies are shown to have similar spatiotemporal structure as those in the far red, particularly for drought-prone regions. There is a somewhat larger percentage response in the red as compared with the far red for these areas that are drought sensitive. We also demonstrate that good-quality ocean fluorescence line height retrievals can be achieved with GOME-2, SCIAMACHY, and similar instruments by utilizing the full complement of radiance measurements that span the red SIF emission feature.

spatiotemporal structure↗

An Inversion Analysis of Recent Variability in Natural CO2 Fluxes Using GOSAT and In Situ Observations

About one-half of the global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation accumulates in the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming. The rest is taken up by vegetation and the ocean. The precise contribution of the two sinks, and their location and year-to-year variability are, however, not well understood. We use two different approaches, batch Bayesian synthesis inversion and variational data assimilation, to deduce the global spatiotemporal distributions of CO2 fluxes during 2009-2010. One of our objectives is to assess different sources of uncertainties in inferred fluxes, including uncertainties in prior flux estimates and observations, and differences in inversion techniques. For prior constraints, we utilize fluxes and uncertainties from the CASA-GFED model of the terrestrial biosphere and biomass burning driven by satellite observations and interannually varying meteorology. We also use measurement-based ocean flux estimates and two sets of fixed fossil CO2 emissions. Here, our inversions incorporate column CO2 measurements from the GOSAT satellite (ACOS retrieval, filtered and bias-corrected) and in situ observations (individual flask and afternoon-average continuous observations) to estimate fluxes in 108 regions over 8-day intervals for the batch inversion and at 3 x 3.75 weekly for the variational system. Relationships between fluxes and atmospheric concentrations are derived consistently for the two inversion systems using the PCTM atmospheric transport model driven by meteorology from the MERRA reanalysis. We compare the posterior fluxes and uncertainties derived using different data sets and the two inversion approaches, and evaluate the posterior atmospheric concentrations against independent data including aircraft measurements. The optimized fluxes generally resemble those from other studies. For example, the results indicate that the terrestrial biosphere is a net CO2 sink, and a GOSAT-only inversion suggests a shift in the global sink from the tropics south to the north relative to the prior and to an in-situ-only inversion. We also find a smaller terrestrial sink in higher-latitude northern regions in boreal summer of 2010 relative to 2009.

Carbon dioxide↗

Biogeochemical cycling and remote sensing

Research is underway at the NASA Ames Research Center that is concerned with aspects of the nitrogen cycle in terrestrial ecosystems. An interdisciplinary research group is attempting to correlate nitrogen transformations, processes, and productivity with variables that can be remotely sensed. Recent NASA and other publications concerning biogeochemical cycling at global scales identify attributes of vegetation that could be related or explain the spatial variation in biologically functional variables. These functional variables include net primary productivity, annual nitrogen mineralization, and possibly the emission rate of nitrous oxide from soils.

Peterson, D. L.↗

Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Can Capture Dynamics Relevant to Plant Water Uptake

A frequently expressed viewpoint across the Earth science community is that global soil moisture estimates from satellite L-band (1.4 GHz) measurements represent moisture only in a shallow surface layer (0–5 cm) and consequently are of limited value for studying global terrestrial ecosystems because plants use water from deeper rootzones. Using this argumentation, many observation-based land surface studies avoid satellite-observed soil moisture. Here, based on peer-reviewed literature across several fields, we argue that such a viewpoint is overly limiting for two reasons. First, microwave soil emission depth considerations and statistical considerations of vertically correlated soil moisture information together indicate that L-band measurements carry information about soil moisture extending below the commonly referenced 5 cm in many conditions. However, spatial variations of effective depths of representation remain uncertain. Second, in reviewing isotopic tracer field studies of plant water uptake, we find a prevalence of vegetation that primarily draws moisture from these upper soil layers. This is especially true for grasslands and croplands covering more than a third of global vegetated surfaces. Even some deeper-rooted species (i.e., shrubs and trees) preferentially or seasonally draw water from the upper soil layers. Therefore, L-band satellite soil moisture estimates are more relevant to global vegetation water uptake than commonly appreciated (i.e., relevant beyond only shallow soil processes like soil evaporation). Our commentary encourages the application of satellite soil moisture across a broader range of terrestrial hydrosphere and biosphere studies while urging more rigorous estimates of its effective depth of representation.

Andrew F. Feldman↗

Emissions of biogenic sulfur gases from Alaskan tundra

Fluxes of the biogenic sulfur gases carbonyl sulfide (COS), dimethyl sulfide (DMS), methyl mercaptan (MeSH), and carbon disulfide (CS2) were determined for several freshwater and coastal marine tundra habitats using a dynamic enclosure method and gas chromatography. In the freshwater tundra sites, highest emissions, with a mean of 6.0 nmol/m(sup -2)H(sup -1) (1.5-10) occurred in the water-saturated wet meadow areas inhabited by grasses, sedges, and Sphagnum mosses. In the drier upland tundra sites, highest fluxes occurred in areas inhabited by mixed vegetation and labrador tea at 3.0 nmol/m(sup -2)h(sup -1) (0-8.3) and lowest fluxes were from lichen-dominated areas at 0.9 nmol/m(sup -2)h(sup -1). Sulfur emissions from a lake surface were also low at 0.8 nmol/m(sup -2)h(sup -1). Of the compounds measured, DMS was the dominant gas emitted from all of these sites. Sulfure emissions from the marine sites were up to 20-fold greater than fluxes in the freshwater habitats and were also dominated by DMS. Emissions of DMS were highest from intertidal soils inhabited by Carex subspathacea (150-250 nmol/m(sup -2)h(sup -1)). This Carex sp. was grazed thoroughly by geese and DMS fluxes doubled when goose feces were left within the flux chamber. Emissions were much lower from other types of vegetation which were more spatially dominant. Sulfure emissions from tundra were among the lowest reported in the literature. When emission data were extrapolated to include all tundra globally, the global flux of biogenic sulfur from this biome is 2-3 x 10(exp 8) g/yr. This represents less than 0.001 percent of the estimated annual global flux (approximately 50 Tg) of biogenic sulfur and less than 0.01 percent of the estimated terrestrial flux. The low emissions are attributed to the low availability of sulfate, certain hydrological characteristics of tundra, and the tendency for tundra to accumulate organic matter.

Hines, Mark E.↗

Rapidly Approaching A Thermal Tolerance Tipping Point in the Eurasian Boreal Forest at Its Southern Margins

Extreme heat is becoming increasingly common across the boreal biome. Better quantification of vegetation physiology and thermal tolerance is needed to predict ecological responses to these events. Here we report that Larix sibirica, a foundation species across boreal Eurasia, has a low thermal tolerance of photosynthesis (Tcrit: ~40-48°C) at its southern range margin. Projections from Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in CMIP6 suggest that Larix sibirica’s leaf temperature might routinely exceed its Tcrit under high emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0) by 2050. Such exceedances would cause sustained damage to Larix sibirica’s photosynthetic apparatus and its ability to assimilate carbon. This work highlights that we may be rapidly approaching ecological tipping point in boreal Eurasia within the next two to three decades. It also demonstrates the urgent need to consider thermal tolerance information to forecast the terrestrial carbon cycle and presents a framework to do so.

Eurasian boreal forest↗

Emissivity of terrestrial materials in the 8-14 microns atmospheric window

Remotely sensed infrared radiance emitted by a surface is a function both of its kinetic temperature and its spectral emissivity. Consequently, assumptions are usually made about the emissivity of earth surface materials to allow their temperatures to be determined, or vice versa. To increase the accuracy of these assumptions, the directional hemispherical spectral reflectance of a wide range of natural earth surface materials has been measured and is summarized here. These include igneous, metamorphic, and sedimentary rocks, desert varnish, soils, vegetation, water, and ice. Kirchhoff's Law can be used to predict directional spectral emissivity from these data.

Salisbury, John W.↗

Comparison of Measurements and FluorMOD Simulations for Solar Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence and Reflectance of a Corn Crop under Nitrogen Treatments [SIF and Reflectance for Corn]

The FLuorescence Explorer (FLEX) satellite concept is one of six semifinalist mission proposals selected in 2006 for pre-Phase studies by the European Space Agency (ESA). The FLEX concept proposes to measure passive solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) of terrestrial ecosystems. A new spectral vegetation Fluorescence Model (FluorMOD) was developed to include the effects of steady state SIF on canopy reflectance. We used our laboratory and field measurements previously acquired from foliage and canopies of corn (Zea mays L.) under controlled nitrogen (N) fertilization to parameterize and evaluate FluorMOD. Our data included biophysical properties, fluorescence (F) and reflectance spectra for leaves; reflectance spectra of canopies and soil; solar irradiance; plot-level leaf area index; and canopy SIF emissions determined using the Fraunhofer Line Depth principal for the atmospheric telluric oxygen absorption features at 688 nm (O2-beta) and 760 nm (O2-alpha). FluorMOD simulations implemented in the default "look-up-table" mode did not reproduce the observed magnitudes of leaf F, canopy SIF, or canopy reflectance. However, simulations for all of these parameters agreed with observations when the default FluorMOD information was replaced with measurements, although N treatment responses were underestimated. Recommendations were provided to enhance FluorMOD's potential utility in support of SIF field experiments and studies of agriculture and ecosystems.

Middleton, Elizabeth M.↗

Biogeochemical factors which regulate the formation and fate of sulfide in wetlands

Coastal wetland areas occupy a small percentage of the terrestrial environment yet are extremely productive regions which support rapid rates of belowground bacterial activity. Wetlands appear to be significant as biogenic sources of gaseous sulfur, carbon, and nitrogen. These gases are important as tracers of man's activities, and they influence atmospheric chemistry. The interactions among wetland biogeochemical processes regulate the anaerobic production of reduced gases and influence the fate of these volatiles. Therefore, spatial and temporal variations in hydrology, salinity, temperature and specification, and growth of vegetation affect the type and magnitude of gas emissions thus hindering predictive estimates of gas flux. Our research is divided into two major components, the first is the biogeochemical characterization of a selected tidal wetland area in terms of factors likely to regulate sulfide flux; the second is a direct measurement of gaseous sulfur flux as related to changes in these biogeochemical conditions. Presently, we are near completion of phase one.

Hines, Mark E.↗

Biogeochemical factors which regulate the formation and fate of sulfide in wetlands

Coastal wetland areas occupy a small percentage of the terrestrial environment yet are extremely productive regions which support rapid rates of below ground bacterial activity. Wetlands appear to be significant as biogenic sources of gaseous sulfur, carbon, and nitrogen. These gases are important as tracers of man's activities, and they influence atmospheric chemistry. The interactions among wetland biogeochemical processes regulate the anaerobic production of reduced gases and influence the fate of these volatiles. Therefore, spatial and temporal variations in hydrology, salinity, temperature, and speciation and growth of vegetation affect the type and magnitude of gas emissions thus hindering predictive estimates of gas flux. The research is divided into two major parts, the first is the biogeochemical characterization of a selected tidal wetland area in terms of factors likely to regulate sulfide flux; the second is a direct measurement of gaseous sulfur flux as related to changes in these biogeochemical conditions. Variant factors affecting sulfide flux include the wetlands' tidal range, seasonal salinity, and other hydrological conditions, grass species and plant growth, soil composition, and microbial activity.

Hines, Mark E.↗

Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

Alexander, Susan E.↗

State of the Carbon Cycle - Consequences of Rising Atmospheric CO2

The rise of atmospheric CO2, largely attributable to human activity through fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. We outline the consequences of this carbon uptake as direct and indirect effects on terrestrial and oceanic systems and processes for different regions of North America and the globe. We assess the capacity of these systems to continue to act as carbon sinks. Rising CO2 has decreased seawater pH; this process of ocean acidification has impacted some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes with further effects likely. In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, net primary production, and increased water-use efficiency. Rising CO2 may change vegetation composition and carbon storage, and widespread increases in water use efficiency likely influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. Consequences for human populations include changes to ecosystem services including cultural activities surrounding land use, agricultural or harvesting practices. Commercial fish stocks have been impacted and crop production yields have been changed as a result of rising CO2. Ocean and terrestrial effects are contingent on, and feedback to, global climate change. Warming and modified precipitation regimes impact a variety of ecosystem processes, and the combination of climate change and rising CO2 contributes considerable uncertainty to forecasting carbon sink capacity in the ocean and on land. Disturbance regime (fire and insects) are modified with increased temperatures. Fire frequency and intensity increase, and insect lifecycles are disrupted as temperatures move out of historical norms. Changes in disturbance patterns modulate the effects of rising CO2 depending on ecosystem type, disturbance frequency, and magnitude of events. We discuss management strategies designed to limit the rise of atmospheric CO2 and reduce uncertainty in forecasts of decadal and centennial feedbacks of rising atmospheric CO2 on carbon storage.

Carbon Cycle↗

Earthshine as an Illumination Source at the Moon

Earthshine is the dominant source of natural illumination on the surface of the Moon during lunar night, and at some locations within permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) near the poles that never receive direct sunlight. As such, earthshine has the potential to enable the scientific investigation and exploration of conditions in areas of the Moon that are either temporarily or permanently hidden from the Sun. Earthshine has also been used to refer to Earthlight reflected from the lunar surface, but in this study we use it to refer specifically to Earthlight incident at the Moon. Under certain circumstances, the heat flux from earthshine could also influence the transport and cold-trapping of volatiles present in the very coldest areas within PSRs. In this study, Earth's spectral irradiance, as it would appear at the Moon in the solar reflectance band (0.3–3.0 µm) and at thermal emission wavelengths (3–50 µm), is examined with a suite of model image cubes and whole-disk spectra created using the Virtual Planetary Laboratory (VPL) three-dimensional (latitude, longitude and altitude) modeling capability. At the Moon, the broadband, hemispherical irradiance from Earth at full-phase is approximately 0.15 W m−2 with comparable contributions from solar reflectance and thermal emission; for context, this about 0.01% that of solar irradiance and has an equivalent temperature of around 40 K. Over the simulated timeframe, spanning two lunations, Earth's thermal irradiance shows very little net change (less than a few mW m−2 resulting from cloud variability and the south-to-north motion of the sub-observer latitude on Earth). In the solar band, Earth's diurnally averaged light curve at phase angles g ≤ 60° is well-fit using a Henyey–Greenstein integral phase function. At wavelengths longward of about 0.7 µm, near the well-known vegetation “red edge”, Earth's reflected solar radiance shows significant diurnal modulation as a result of the broad maximum in projected landmass at terrestrial longitudes between 60°W and 0°, as well as from the distribution of clouds. A simple formulation with adjustable coefficients is presented, condensed from the VPL model grid, for estimating Earth's hemispherical irradiance at the Moon as a function of wavelength, phase angle and sub-observer coordinates (terrestrial latitude and longitude). Uncertainties in any one prediction are estimated to be 10–12% at 0.3 µm, rising to >25% near 2.5 µm as a result of the increasing relative brightness and unpredictable influence of clouds. Although coefficient values are derived from a suite of spring equinox models, the approximation appears to be valid for all seasons, to within the stated uncertainties. It is demonstrated that earthshine is sufficiently bright to serve as a natural illumination source for optical measurements on a robotic lander/rover, allowing the identification of water ice mixed with regolith at the percent-level of fractional area.

Surface↗

Improving NASA GEOS Atmospheric CO2 Simulations by Calibrating CASA Surface Fluxes with an Empirical Sink

With the adoption of the Paris climate accord, efforts to monitor and understand both anthropogenic and natural carbon sources and sinks are increasing across the world. Given their low latency and global coverage, satellite observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are poised to make important contributions to this field. The combination of satellite data and high resolution global models can be used to monitor changes in carbon fluxes and to evaluate the consistency of nationally reported emissions estimates in support of multiple stakeholder communities. However, a consistent challenge to such work has been the high latency of surface carbon flux estimates, which are often not available for a year or more. This presentation describes the construction of surface carbon flux estimates meant to improve the near real time simulation of atmospheric CO2 with NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model. The surface flux estimates begin with a collection of bottom-up fluxes which incorporate satellite measurements in their construction, e.g. vegetation indices in the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and nighttime lights in the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC). From there, we take the additional step of using an empirical sink to calibrate terrestrial net biospheric exchange (NBE) to estimated values from atmospheric inversion systems. This approach removes a known, systematic bias in predicted atmospheric mixing ratios. Using these fluxes in a free running simulation, the model is able to reproduce in situ measurements with the same skill as when it uses gridded fluxes from a flux inversion system. Using these fluxes as a prior in an assimilation system, e.g. one incorporating retrievals of column CO2 from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), allows the analysis to capture variability in CO2 on scales that would be missed otherwise. This approach supports NASA's capability to forecast atmospheric CO2 up to two weeks in advance by leveraging a GEOS system used to produce quasi-operational weather analyses and forecasts, providing a valuable new tool to the carbon monitoring research and applications communities.

Weir, B.↗