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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Large Deviations Anomaly Detection (LAD) for collection of multivariate time series data: Applications to COVID-19 data

Time series anomaly detection is frequently used to identify extreme behaviors within a single time series. Identifying extreme trends in relation to a collection of other time series, on the other hand, is frequently of significant interest, such as in public health policy, social justice, and pandemic propagation. Using concepts from large deviations theory , we propose an algorithm that can scale to large collections of time series data. This paper expands on the LAD algorithm presented in Guggilam et al. (2022). The proposed algorithm is an online anomaly detection method for identifying anomalies in a collection of multivariate time series that takes advantage of the algorithm’s ability to scale to high-dimensional data. We show how the proposed Large Deviations Anomaly Detection (LAD) algorithm can be used to identify regions with anomalous trends in COVID-19 cases, deaths, biweekly growth rates, vaccinations, and fatality rates. Several of the observed anomalous trends are associated with regions that have demonstrated poor response to the COVID pandemic.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The OCEAN ICE mooring compilation: a standardised, pan-Antarctic database of ocean hydrography and current time series

Continuous moored time series of temperature, salinity, pressure and current speed and direction are of great importance for understanding the continental shelf and under-ice-shelf dynamics and thermodynamics that govern water mass transformations and ice melting in and around Antarctic marginal seas. In these regions, icebergs and sea ice make ship-based mooring deployment and recovery challenging. Nevertheless, over decades, expeditions around the fringe of Antarctica sporadically deployed and recovered hundreds of moored instruments, including those facilitated through ice shelves boreholes. These datasets tend to be archived in a wide range of data centres, with, to our knowledge, no clear format standardisation. As a result, systematic analysis of historical mooring time series in the marginal seas is often challenging. Here we present the first version of a standardised pan-Antarctic moored hydrography and current time series compilation, with broad international contributions from data centres, research institutes and individual data owners. The mooring records in this compilation span over five decades, from the 1970s to the 2020s, providing an opportunity for a systematic study of the pan-Antarctic water mass transport and shelf connectivity. As a demonstration of the utility of this compilation, we present spectral analysis of the compiled current velocity time series, which unsurprisingly shows the dominating presence of tidal variability within most records. This component of the variability is fitted using multi-linear regression to tidal frequencies, and the tidal fit is removed from the original time series to leave de-tided variability. Given the limited record durations to months to years, de-tided variability is dominated by synoptic (3–10 d period), intraseasonal (10–80 d) and seasonal (∼6 months–1 year) signals. The spatial distribution of the kinetic energy integrated within frequency bands is presented and discussed within respective regional contexts, and future avenues of research are proposed. This data compilation is assembled under the endorsement of Ocean-Cryosphere Exchanges in ANtarctica: Impacts on Climate and the Earth System (OCEAN ICE) project (https://ocean-ice.eu/, last access: 23 October 2025) funded by the European Commission and UK Research and Innovation. It is available and regularly updated in NetCDF format with the SEANOE database at https://doi.org/10.17882/99922 (Zhou et al., 2024a).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative data sets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student t process regression. We apply Student t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via colouring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative datasets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student-t process regression. We apply Student-t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via coloring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics, and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2005

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.

Goetz, Scott J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Visualization Component of Vehicle Health Decision Support System

The visualization front-end of a Decision Support System (DSS) also includes an analysis engine linked to vehicle telemetry, and a database of learned models for known behaviors. Because the display is graphical rather than text-based, the summarization it provides has a greater information density on one screen for evaluation by a flight controller.This tool provides a system-level visualization of the state of a vehicle, and drill-down capability for more details and interfaces to separate analysis algorithms and sensor data streams. The system-level view is a 3D rendering of the vehicle, with sensors represented as icons, tied to appropriate positions within the vehicle body and colored to indicate sensor state (e.g., normal, warning, anomalous state, etc.). The sensor data is received via an Information Sharing Protocol (ISP) client that connects to an external server for real-time telemetry. Users can interactively pan, zoom, and rotate this 3D view, as well as select sensors for a detail plot of the associated time series data. Subsets of the plotted data can be selected and sent to an external analysis engine to either search for a similar time series in an historical database, or to detect anomalous events. The system overview and plotting capabilities are completely general in that they can be applied to any vehicle instrumented with a collection of sensors. This visualization component can interface with the ISP for data streams used by NASA s Mission Control Center at Johnson Space Center. In addition, it can connect to, and display results from, separate analysis engine components that identify anomalies or that search for past instances of similar behavior. This software supports NASA's Software, Intelligent Systems, and Modeling element in the Exploration Systems Research and Technology Program by augmenting the capability of human flight controllers to make correct decisions, thus increasing safety and reliability. It was designed specifically as a tool for NASA's flight controllers to monitor the International Space Station and a future Crew Exploration Vehicle.

Jacob, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS1994

Minimizing systematic errors from atmospheric multiple scattering and satellite viewing geometry in coastal zone color scanner level IIA imagery

Water-leaving radiances and phytoplankton pigment concentrations are calculated from coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) radiance measurements by removing atmospheric Rayleigh and aerosol radiances from the total radiance signal measured at the satellite. The single greatest source of error in CZCS atmospheric correction algorithms in the assumption that these Rayleigh and aerosol radiances are separable. Multiple-scattering interactions between Rayleigh and aerosol components cause systematic errors in calculated aerosol radiances, and the magnitude of these errors is dependent on aerosol type and optical depth and on satellite viewing geometry. A technique was developed which extends the results of previous radiative transfer modeling by Gordon and Castano to predict the magnitude of these systematic errors for simulated CZCS orbital passes in which the ocean is viewed through a modeled, physically realistic atmosphere. The simulated image mathematically duplicates the exact satellite, Sun, and pixel locations of an actual CZCS image. Errors in the aerosol radiance at 443 nm are calculated for a range of aerosol optical depths. When pixels in the simulated image exceed an error threshhold, the corresponding pixels in the actual CZCS image are flagged and excluded from further analysis or from use in image compositing or compilation of pigment concentration databases. Studies based on time series analyses or compositing of CZCS imagery which do not address Rayleigh-aerosol multiple scattering should be interpreted cautiously, since the fundamental assumption used in their atmospheric correction algorithm is flawed.

Martin, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Do nonlinearities play a significant role in short term, beat-to-beat variability?

Numerous studies of short-term beat-to-beat variability in cardiovascular signals have not resolved the debate about the completeness of linear analysis techniques. This aim of this paper is to evaluate further the role of nonlinearities in short-term, beat-to-beat variability. We compared linear autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and nonlinear neural network (NN) models for predicting instantaneous heart rate (HR) and mean arterial blood pressure (BP) from past HR and BP. To evaluate these models, we used HR and BP time series from the MIMIC database. Experimental results indicate that NN-based nonlinearities do not play a significant role and suggest that ARMA linear analysis techniques provide adequate characterization of the system dynamics responsible for generating short-term, beat-to-beat variability.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
DOE OSTI2024

Building a Prospective LCA Framework to Analyze Emerging Technologies in a Dynamic System Context

NREL's Lifecycle Analysis Integration into Opensource Numerical models (LiAISON) framework computes temporally explicit life cycle impacts and resource uses for specific technologies (foreground) in a dynamic system context (background). LiAISON computes results for a series of environmental mid-points enabling an analysis of prospective tradeoffs of emerging technologies toward 2100. This prospective feature is of critical importance when analyzing present-day emerging technologies whose large-scale impacts during deployment phases will occur in different, future system contexts. LiAISON systematically accounts for dynamic system changes by applying an integrated background of the future energy-economy-land-climate system, generated by exogenous integrated assessment models (IAMs). Using IAM scenarios, LiAISON generates a time-series of life cycle inventory (LCI) databases, which are then used to calculate the impacts per functional unit per time step. This expands current practice of using static, future system assumptions, e.g., a specific grid-mix each year. Further, IAM scenarios are provided in a standardized format of shared-socioeconomic pathways (SSP) and representative concentration pathways (RCP) combinations. These are coherent, regularly, published, and peer-reviewed scenario combinations that establish a reproducible and standardized societal and climate mitigation futures context. They are comparable across IAMs and expand the system boundary of the traditional LCA by including dimensions such as societal and behavioral changes. We apply the framework to assess two emerging Power-to-Hydrogen processes, high temperature electrolysis using solid oxide fuel cell (HT-SOE) and polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline Hydrogen production process via steam methane reforming. Despite the decarbonized electricity systems' beneficial effects on the PtH2 processes' carbon intensities, we find environmental tradeoffs, which require technology improvements via learning-by-doing to be alleviated. Future work via ongoing collaborations will focus on linking the framework to other energy-economy-land-climate models and open-source life cycle inventory databases.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Knowledge Oriented Graph Unified Transformer (KOGUT) v0.1

KOGUT — Knowledge Oriented Graph Unified Transformer KOGUT implements the Relational Graph Transformer (RelGT) architecture for knowledge graph link prediction in biological domains, with a primary focus on microbial growth media prediction. While the original RelGT (arXiv:2505.10960) targets relational tables, time series, and multi-table databases, KOGUT adapts this architecture for heterogeneous biological knowledge graphs, providing first-in-class AI predictive models for microbial cultivation. Key Adaptations Beyond Original RelGT: - Knowledge Graph Focus: Applied to biological KGs with semantic node types (taxa, chemicals, media, phenotypes, environments) versus generic relational database tables, trained on the KG-Microbe knowledge graph (1.3M entities, 2.9M edges, 24 relation types). - Multimodal Node Encoding: Integrates node labels, categories, descriptions, and synonyms from KG metadata through learned embedding layers—adapting relational column features to graph node attributes with textual semantics. - Extended K-Hop Subgraph Strategy: Optimized neighborhood sampling (3-hop default, configurable up to 200 nodes) tuned for sparse biological networks, building on the original local-global attention framework with biological relation preservation. - Biolink Predicate Preservation: Type-specific transformations for 24 biological edge semantics (occurs_in, consumes, produces, has_phenotype, subclass_of) beyond standard relational foreign keys, enabling multi-relation link prediction. - Inductive Learning Support: Enables zero-shot predictions for novel taxa through feature-based embeddings (temperature, oxygen requirements, gram stain, cell shape), extending the original transductive relational benchmark scope to uncultured microorganisms. CheapSOTA Performance Optimizations (This Distribution): - VQ-EMA Centroid Attention: Vector quantization with exponential moving average for improved global context modeling (+5-10% MRR improvement). - HDF5 Precomputed Data Loading: One-time preprocessing of k-hop subgraphs to eliminate redundant graph traversals (2-5× training speedup). - Distributed Data Parallel Training: Multi-GPU support for scaling to larger knowledge graphs (tested on 4× NVIDIA A100 GPUs at NERSC Perlmutter). - Mixed Precision Training: Automatic mixed precision (AMP) for memory efficiency and faster training. Advantages Over Standard Knowledge Graph Embedding Models: Combines RelGT's proven multi-element tokenization (features, type, hop, structure) with graph-native biological representations, enabling interpretable link prediction across heterogeneous entities that standard embedding models (TransE, RotatE, ComplEx) and table-based transformers cannot directly model. Achieves near-perfect performance on microbial growth media prediction (MRR: 0.9966, Precision@1: 0.9932, Hit@10: 1.0000) while maintaining explainability through attention-based reasoning over biological pathways. Training Data: - KG-Microbe merged knowledge graph: 1,379,337 nodes, 2,960,472 edges - 24 biological relation types including taxonomic hierarchies, metabolic interactions, phenotype associations, and environmental relationships - Primary prediction task: Growth media suitability for microbial taxa (biolink:occurs_in, 50K edges) - Multi-relation capability: Predicts links for any of the 24 relation types, including chemical consumption/production, phenotype associations, and taxonomic classification Citation: Original RelGT Architecture: Dwivedi et al., "Relational Graph Transformer", arXiv:2505.10960, 2025 KOGUT Implementation: Knowledge Oriented Graph Unified Transformer for Microbial Growth Media Prediction Developed at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Trained on NERSC Perlmutter supercomputer

Joachimiak, Marcin [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hamilton: Flexible, Open Source $10 Wireless Sensor System for Energy Efficient Building Operation

Sensors for improving building performance are rapidly populating the market, driven in part by the drive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions resulting from energy production as well as improve the interior environment for healthy and more productive spaces. UC Berkeley has led wireless sensor development over the past 25 years (e.g., Telos mote), with the Hamilton (named after Alexander Hamilton on the US $10 bill) as the most recent. The Hamilton sensor was designed as a low-cost high-performance sensor that is modular and interoperable. The objective of the Hamilton project was to create, evaluate and establish the technological foundations for secure and easy to deploy building energy efficiency applications utilizing pervasive, low-cost wireless sensors integrated with traditional Building Management Systems (BMS), consumer-sector building components, and powerful data analytics. The project included iterative hardware design, incorporating a high-performance database (BTrDb, http://btrdb.io/), creating and iterating the development of secure data middleware (BOSSwave, WAVE/WAVEMQ), working with and pushing the development of an open-source tiny operating system RiotOS, and implementing and improving protocols such as Thread/OpenThread and TCP/IP. The hardware benefited from careful design to drive down the cost; the design included a System-on-a-Chip (SoC), chip antenna, single crystal and five passive components. Careful design of the operating system created a low-power design to enable a long life with small batteries. The hardware included several sensors: temperature, radiant temperature, relative humidity, magnetometer, accelerometer, and light, with an optional occupancy (Passive InfraRed) sensor. The project was the basis of several applications, both internal to the research team and other researchers and professionals at other institutions. Several applications used the sensor hardware as the basis for other complex devices. Other applications used the sensors to improve building performance through interoperating with the building Heating Ventilation and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) system, such as using occupancy and/or distributed temperature sensing to reduce HVAC zone energy while still providing thermal comfort and to reduce peak loads in small commercial buildings. We demonstrated cloud-based energy analytics, implemented a schedule and a Model Predictive Controller in a small commercial building to optimize HVAC energy, occupancy and electricity price. Initial integration of these technological innovations was performed through the creation of execution containers containing the WAVE agent and various driver, proxy, or building system function logic. The research added to the understanding of efficient sensor hardware, secure middleware, time-series data management (high performance database), efficient communication protocols, and interoperating with applications and building systems. The project showed the technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of creating a low-cost, modular, and easy-to-deploy sensor. Through conversations with multiple end users, the research team discovered that many customers wanted data management and services in addition to the sensors. HamiltonIOT developed packages of sensors, border router, and data services to provide a seamless “plug-and-play” sensor deployment. Some customers were willing to pay for higher quality sensors (such as light); some customers wanted a robust enclosure (waterproof).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2015

A Combined Solar and Geomagnetic Index for Thermospheric Climate

Infrared radiation from nitric oxide (NO) at 5.3 Â is a primary mechanism by which the thermosphere cools to space. The SABER instrument on the NASA TIMED satellite has been measuring thermospheric cooling by NO for over 13 years. Physically, changes in NO emission are due to changes in temperature, atomic oxygen, and the NO density. These physical changes however are driven by changes in solar irradiance and changes in geomagnetic conditions. We show that the SABER time series of globally integrated infrared power (Watts) radiated by NO can be replicated accurately by a multiple linear regression fit using the F10.7, Ap, and Dst indices. This fit enables several fundamental properties of NO cooling to be determined as well as their variability with time, permitting reconstruction of the NO power time series back nearly 70 years with extant databases of these indices. The relative roles of solar ultraviolet and geomagnetic processes in determining the NO cooling are derived and shown to be solar cycle dependent. This reconstruction provides a long-term time series of an integral radiative constraint on thermospheric climate that can be used to test climate models.

Hunt, Linda↗
NASA NTRS2020

Changes in Vegetation Phenology and Productivity in Alaska Over the Past Two Decades

Understanding trends in vegetation phenology and growing season productivity at a regional scale is important for global change studies, particularly as linkages can be made between climate shifts and the vegetation’s potential to sequester or release carbon into the atmosphere. Trends and geographic patterns of change in vegetation growth and phenology from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data sets were analyzed for the state of Alaska over the period 2000 to 2018. Phenology metrics derived from the MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series at 250 m resolution tracked changes in the total integrated greenness cover (TIN), maximum annual NDVI (MAXN), and start of the season timing (SOST) date over the past two decades. SOST trends showed significantly earlier seasonal vegetation greening (at more than one day per year) across the northeastern Brooks Range Mountains, on the Yukon-Kuskokwim coastal plain, and in the southern coastal areas of Alaska. TIN and MAXN have increased significantly across the western Arctic Coastal Plain and within the perimeters of most large wildfires of the Interior boreal region that burned since the year 2000, whereas TIN and MAXN have decreased notably in watersheds of Bristol Bay and in the Cook Inlet lowlands of southwestern Alaska, in the same regions where earlier-trending SOST was also detected. Mapping results from this MODIS time-series analysis have identified a new database of localized study locations across Alaska where vegetation phenology has recently shifted notably, and where land cover types and ecosystem processes could be changing rapidly.

Vegetation↗
NASA NTRS2023

Experimental Characterization of the Space Launch System Block 1B Liftoff and Transition Environment

A wind tunnel test was conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel to evaluate the liftoff and transition flow environment of the Space Launch System Block 1B launch vehicles and tower interference effects with the newly designed Mobile Launcher 2. This test leveraged several unique diagnostic capabilities, including eight distributed force and moment measurements on the launch tower tiers, new umbilical and crew access arm configurations, and unsteady pressure acquisition on the rocket nose in the cargo configuration. The tower loading revealed a strong impact of the SLS vehicle height on force coefficients for individual tiers. Although the umbilicals produced weak influence on the loading on both vehicle and launch tower, unsteady pressure measurements revealed a slight increase in fundamental pressure oscillation frequency at specific wind azimuth directions. Multimodal flow states were observed in the gap flow between the vehicle and solid rocket boosters, producing different load profiles along the vehicle that are now incorporated in the vehicle database. This phenomenon was investigated using time-series measurements of forces as well as tufts and smoke flow visualization.

Lee J Mears↗
NASA NTRS2023

Experimental Characterization of the Space Launch System Block 1B Liftoff and Transition Environment

A wind tunnel test was conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel to evaluate the liftoff and transition flow environment of the Space Launch System Block 1B launch vehicles and tower interference effects with the newly designed Mobile Launcher 2. This test leveraged several unique diagnostic capabilities, including eight distributed force and moment measurements on the launch tower tiers, new umbilical and crew access arm configurations, and unsteady pressure acquisition on the rocket nose in the cargo configuration. The tower loading revealed a strong impact of the SLS vehicle height on force coefficients for individual tiers. Although the umbilicals produced weak influence on the loading on both vehicle and launch tower, unsteady pressure measurements revealed a slight increase in fundamental pressure oscillation frequency at specific wind azimuth directions. Multimodal flow states were observed in the gap flow between the vehicle and solid rocket boosters, producing different load profiles along the vehicle that are now incorporated in the vehicle database. This phenomenon was investigated using time-series measurements of forces as well as tufts and smoke flow visualization.

SLS↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Global Infrared Energy Budget of the Thermosphere from 1947 to 2016 and Implications for Solar Variability

We present an empirical model of the global infrared energy budget of the thermosphere over the past 70 years. The F(sub 10.7), Ap, and Dst indices are used in linear regression fits to the 14.5 year time series of radiative cooling by carbon dioxide and nitric oxide measured by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the TIMED satellite. Databases of these indices are used to develop the radiative cooling time series from 1947. No consistent relation between the occurrence of peak sunspot number and peak infrared cooling is found over the past six solar cycles. The total infrared energy radiated by the thermosphere, integrated over a solar cycle, is nearly constant over five complete solar cycles studied. This is a direct consequence of the geoeffective solar energy also being nearly constant over the same intervals. These results provide a new metric for assessing the terrestrial context of the long‐term record of solar‐related indices.

Mlynczak, Martin G.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions

We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980–2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗