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DOE OSTI2021

Quasi-Two-Day and Diurnal Cloud Variation Timescales over Convectively Active Regions

Climatological features of the cloud variability on quasi-two-day (Q2D) and diurnal cycle (DC) timescales are investigated by utilizing the high-resolution satellite infrared brightness temperature (IRBT) observations from January 1998 to December 2019. A distinct land-sea contrast between the distributions of Q2D and DC signals is evident. Diurnally driven cloud activity mainly occurs over land and mountainous regions, and the Q2D timescale is more prominent over tropical ocean basins and land where organized convection is usually observed, e.g., Congo and Amazon Rainforests, the U.S. and subtropical South America during warm seasons. The long-term relationship between the Q2D variability and sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the clouds are more active on Q2D timescales over higher SST environments. The Q2D variability correlates well with both the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from 1998 to 2019. The cloud variability associated with a range of convective available potential energy (CAPE) values is analyzed. The result over land shows that increased Q2D cloud variability emerges with higher CAPE, suggesting the coincidence of Q2D and organized convection, particularly given that this effect is strongest over regions with frequent mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) around the world. The cloud variability and the Q2D timescale analyses provide an alternative perspective to understand the global features of mesoscale convective systems. Overall, this study objectively examines the global variability of convective timescales related to the diurnal cycle and longer-lived convective systems to provide a greater understanding of how the global convection population varies in space and time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

How do North American weather regimes drive wind energy at the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales?

Abstract There has been an increasing need for forecasting power generation at the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales to support the operation, management, and planning of the wind-energy system. At the S2S timescales, atmospheric variability is largely related to recurrent and persistent weather patterns, referred to as weather regimes (WRs). In this study, we identify four WRs that influence wind resources over North America using a universal two-stage procedure approach. These WRs are responsible for large-scale wind and power production anomalies over the CONUS at the S2S timescales. The WR-based reconstruction explains up to 40% of the monthly variance of power production over the western United States, and the explanatory power of WRs generally increases with the increase of timescales. The identified relationship between WRs and power production reveals the potential and limitations of the regional WR-based wind resource assessment over different regions of the CONUS across multiple timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Candidate Brown-dwarf Microlensing Events with Very Short Timescales and Small Angular Einstein Radii

Short-timescale microlensing events are likely to be produced by substellar brown dwarfs (BDs), but it is difficult to securely identify BD lenses based on only event timescales t{sub E} because short-timescale events can also be produced by stellar lenses with high relative lens-source proper motions. In this paper, we report three strong candidate BD-lens events found from the search for lensing events not only with short timescales (t{sub E}≲6 days) but also with very small angular Einstein radii (θ{sub E}≲0.05 mas) among the events that have been found in the 2016–2019 observing seasons. These events include MOA-2017-BLG-147, MOA-2017-BLG-241, and MOA-2019-BLG-256, in which the first two events are produced by single lenses and the last event is produced by a binary lens. From the Monte Carlo simulations of Galactic events conducted with the combined t{sub E} and θ{sub E} constraint, it is estimated that the lens masses of the individual events are 0.051{sub −0.027}{sup +0.100} M{sub ⊙}, 0.044{sub −0.023}{sup +0.090} M{sub ⊙}, and 0.046{sub −0.023}{sup +0.067} M{sub ⊙}/0.038{sub −0.019}{sup +0.056} M{sub ⊙} and the probability of the lens mass smaller than the lower limit of stars is ∼80% for all events. We point out that routine lens mass measurements of short-timescale lensing events require survey-mode space-based observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of phase state and non-ideal mixing on equilibration timescales of secondary organic aerosol partitioning

Abstract. Evidence has accumulated that secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) exhibit complex morphologies with multiple phases that can adopt amorphous semisolid or glassy phase states. However, experimental analysis and numerical modeling on the formation and evolution of SOA still often employ equilibrium partitioning with an ideal mixing assumption in the particle phase. Here we apply the kinetic multilayer model of gas–particle partitioning (KM-GAP) to simulate condensation of semi-volatile species into a core–shell phase-separated particle to evaluate equilibration timescales of SOA partitioning. By varying bulk diffusivity and the activity coefficient of the condensing species in the shell, we probe the complex interplay of mass transfer kinetics and the thermodynamics of partitioning. We found that the interplay of non-ideality and phase state can impact SOA partitioning kinetics significantly. The effect of non-ideality on SOA partitioning is slight for liquid particles but becomes prominent in semisolid or solid particles. If the condensing species is miscible with a low activity coefficient in the viscous shell phase, the particle can reach equilibrium with the gas phase long before the dissolution of concentration gradients in the particle bulk. For the condensation of immiscible species with a high activity coefficient in the semisolid shell, the mass concentration in the shell may become higher or overshoot its equilibrium concentration due to slow bulk diffusion through the viscous shell for excess mass to be transferred to the core phase. Equilibration timescales are shorter for the condensation of lower-volatility species into semisolid shell; as the volatility increases, re-evaporation becomes significant as desorption is faster for volatile species than bulk diffusion in a semisolid matrix, leading to an increase in equilibration timescale. We also show that the equilibration timescale is longer in an open system relative to a closed system especially for partitioning of miscible species; hence, caution should be exercised when interpreting and extrapolating closed-system chamber experimental results to atmosphere conditions. Our results provide a possible explanation for discrepancies between experimental observations of fast particle–particle mixing and predictions of long mixing timescales in viscous particles and provide useful insights into description and treatment of SOA in aerosol models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Magnitude and timescale of liquid water path adjustments to cloud droplet number concentration perturbations for nocturnal non-precipitating marine stratocumulus

Cloud liquid water path (L) adjusts to perturbations in cloud droplet number concentration (N) over time. We explore the magnitude and timescale of this adjustment in nocturnal non-precipitating marine stratocumuli using large eddy simulations of baseline conditions and aerosol seeding experiments for 22 meteorological conditions. The results confirm that the L adjustment (δL) slope (k) is more negative for simulation pairs with relatively low N and less negative for high N. Overall, k is unlikely to be lower than −0.4 within 24 h of seeding start, meaning the L adjustment is unlikely to fully offset the brightening due to the Twomey effect. After seeding, the δL becomes increasingly negative, which can be characterized by an exponential convergence. This evolution is governed by a short timescale around 5 h and lasts for around 8–12 h. It is driven by the feedback between entrainment, L, and boundary layer (BL) turbulence. Other processes, including radiation, surface fluxes, and subsidence, respond to the seeding weakly. This short timescale is insensitive to the amount of seeding, making the evolution of δL and some other deviations similar for different seeding amounts after appropriate scaling. The timescale of k evolution is closely related to the δL timescale and hence also short, while it could also be affected by the δN evolution. The results are most relevant to conditions where seeding is applied to a large area of marine stratocumulus in well-mixed and overcast BL where shear is not a primary source of turbulence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Timescales of Soil Moisture Anomalies: Results from Two GCMs

Soil moisture anomalies dissipate over timescales that may span weeks to months. Characterizing the geographical and seasonal variations in these timescales can have important practical benefit; significant soil moisture "memory" allows long-lead forecasts of soil moisture, which have been found in recent studies to be essential for useful Ion--lead forecasts of precipitation in many regions. In this talk, we will present and compare the soil moisture timescales derived in two separate general circulation model (GCM) studies. Both studies employ multiple ensembles of short-term climate simulations. Timescales at a given point are effectively estimated by determining how quickly the soil moisture distribution generated in one ensemble of simulations (characterized by a unique set of initial soil moisture conditions) approaches that produced by another ensemble (characterized by a different set of initial soil moisture conditions). The talk will include a discussion of why the timescales produced by the two GCMs differ in some regions, and it will also describe the impact of soil moisture memory on simulated precipitation.

Koster, Randal D.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Candidate Brown-dwarf Microlensing Events with Very Short Timescales and Small Angular Einstein Radii

Short-timescale microlensing events are likely to be produced by substellar brown dwarfs (BDs), but it is difficult to securely identify BD lenses based on only event timescales because short-timescale events can also be produced by stellar lenses with high relative lens-source proper motions. In this paper, we report three strong candidate BD-lens events found from the search for lensing events not only with short timescales (t(E) ≲ 6 days) but also with very small angular Einstein radii (θ(E) ≲ 0.05 mas) among the events that have been found in the 2016–2019 observing seasons. These events include MOA-2017-BLG-147, MOA-2017-BLG-241, and MOA-2019-BLG-256, in which the first two events are produced by single lenses and the last event is produced by a binary lens. From the Monte Carlo simulations of Galactic events conducted with the combined t(E) and θ(E) constraint, it is estimated that the lens masses of the individual events are 0.051 (sup +0.100, sub -0.027) M(ʘ), 0.044 (sup +0.090, sub -0.023) M(ʘ), and 0.046 (sup +0.067, sub -0.023) M(ʘ)/0.038 (sup +0.056, sub -0.019) M(ʘ) and the probability of the lens mass smaller than the lower limit of stars is ~80% for all events. We point out that routine lens mass measurements of short-timescale lensing events require survey-mode space-based observations.

Cheongho Han↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling Model (MIDAS-Solar)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have experienced unprecedented growth in the United States. PV will become not only an energy producer but also a necessary provider of ancillary services at multiple timescales. Conventional methods to simulate power system operations - such as long-term production simulation (which typically considers schedules from hours to minutes by using an optimization framework) and short-term transient studies (which simulate dynamics from seconds to sub-seconds using state variables and differential equations) are not sufficient for studying the multiple-timescale variation of solar generation and its impact on system reliability. Long-term system economics and short-term system dynamics are highly coupled, particularly when the penetration level of renewable generation is extremely high, because the uncertainty and variability of solar generation will impact both power systems steady-state and dynamic performance. This project helps meet and exceed the Solar Energy Technologies Office goal of systems integration by directly addressing this stability and reliability challenge for electric grid planning and operation. This will be accomplished by developing temporally comprehensive, closed-loop simulation models that seamlessly simulate power systems operations from economic scheduling (day-ahead to hours) to dynamic response analysis (seconds to sub-seconds). Both a multi-timescale grid model and an integrated PV model will be developed in this project to accurately study the impacts of PV variability and uncertainty on system reliability at multiple timescales. Using quasi-dynamic simulation methods and data-driven security assessment (DSA) criteria will allow the dynamic characteristics of PV to be fed forward into longer-timescale scheduling models for a complete understanding of the effect of short-term PV dynamics on bulk systems operations (e.g., reserve scheduling and deployment). Upon completion of the proposed model, this project will help operators accurately assess system reliability by deploying energy and reserve scheduling under critical contingency conditions and studying interactions among all types of essential reliability services provided by modern PV power plants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Timescale Integrated Dynamics and Scheduling for Solar (MIDAS-Solar) (Final Technical Report)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have experienced unprecedented growth in the United States. PV will become not only an energy producer but also a necessary provider of ancillary services at multiple timescales. Conventional methods to simulate power systems operations - such as long-term production simulation (which typically considers schedules from hours to minutes by using an optimization framework) and short-term transient studies (which simulate dynamics from seconds to sub-seconds using state variables and differential equations) - are not sufficient for studying the multiple-timescale variation of solar generation and its impact on system reliability. Long-term system economics and short-term system dynamics are highly coupled, particularly when the penetration level of renewable generation is extremely high, because the uncertainty and variability of solar generation will impact both power system steady-state and dynamic performance. This project helps meet and exceed the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office goal of systems integration by directly addressing this stability and reliability challenge for power grid planning and operation. We have developed a temporally comprehensive, closed-loop simulation model, named Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamics and Scheduling (MIDAS), that seamlessly simulates power system operations from economic scheduling (day-ahead to hours) to dynamic response analysis (seconds to sub-seconds). For schedules with very high levels of inverter-based resources (IBRs), up to and including 100%, the stability of grid controls has been evaluated through electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations and power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) simulations of key transient events at key schedule points. Specifically, MIDAS provides: 1) a closed-loop simulation framework for simulating timescales from economic scheduling to dynamic stability analysis; 2) machine learning-based stability assessment; 3) EMT modeling and analysis for large-scale power systems; 4) MIDAS PHIL test bed. We worked with Hawaii Electric Companies to apply the MIDAS study framework to a Maui grid study. The entire island's transmission system was modeled in detail - from a yearly scheduling model, to a second-level frequency dynamic model, down to a sub-second-scale EMT model to address critical stability issues. The project demonstrated how MIDAS can help system planners and operators assess system reliability and stability while the power grid is marching toward a high-renewable, high-IBR future. In this Maui grid study, we found that 100% instantaneous IBR operation is achievable in EMT simulation and PHIL testing, and grid planners and operators might need new analysis/simulation tools to assess grid reliability and stability in the scheduling stage. MIDAS will bring Maui and other systems closer to 100% clean and stable energy futures. (In this study, we examined transient stability. Other topics necessary for 100% IBR operation, such as protection and resource adequacy, were not examined.)

100% Renewables↗

DOE OSTI2021

The role of interannual ENSO events in decadal timescale transitions of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

The build-up of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide necessary conditions for interannual El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events to contribute to decadal timescale transitions of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). This can be viewed as a corollary to subseasonal westerly wind burst events contributing to El Niño interannual timescale transitions. In this work, a long pre-industrial control run with CESM1 is analyzed to show that there is a greater chance of ENSO activity to contribute to an IPO transition when off-equatorial western Pacific Ocean heat content reaches either a maximum (for El Niño to contribute to a transition to positive IPO) or minimum (for La Niña to contribute to a transition to negative IPO) as seen in observations. If above a necessary ocean heat content threshold, the convergence associated with westerly anomaly near-equatorial surface winds associated with El Niño activity can draw that heat content equatorward to sustain anomalously warm western and central Pacific SSTs. These are associated with positive precipitation and convective heating anomalies, a Gill-type response and wind stress curl anomalies that continue to feed warm water into the near-equatorial western Pacific. These conditions then sustain the decadal-timescale transition to positive IPO (with the opposite sign for transition to negative IPO). Associated central equatorial Pacific convective heating anomalies produce SLP and wind stress anomalies in the North and South Pacific that can excite westward-propagating off-equatorial oceanic Rossby waves to contribute to the western Pacific thermocline depth and consequent heat content anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Numerically Relevant Timescales in the MG2 Microphysics Model

Climate models rely on parameterizations of a variety of processes in the atmospheric physics, but a common concern is that the temporal resolution is too coarse to consistently resolve the behavior that individual parameterizations are designed to capture. This study examines timescales numerically derived from the Morrison-Gettelman (MG2) microphysics as implemented within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, version 1 (E3SMv1). Numerically relevant timescales in MG2 are derived by computing the eigenspectrum of its Jacobian. These timescales are found to often be smaller than the default 5 min time step used for MG2. The fast timescales are then heuristically connected to individual microphysics processes. By substepping a few particular rain processes within MG2, the time discretization error for those processes was considerably reduced with minimal additional expense to the overall microphysics. While this improvement has a substantial effect on the target processes and on the vertical distribution of stratiform-derived rain within E3SMv1, the overall model climate is found to not be sensitive to MG2 time step. Here, we hypothesize that this is because the surface climate does not depend strongly on certain process rates, especially MG2's rain evaporation rate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ecosystem Water‐Saving Timescale Varies Spatially With Typical Drydown Length

Abstract Stomatal optimization theory is a commonly used framework for modeling how plants regulate transpiration in response to the environment. Most stomatal optimization models assume that plants instantaneously optimize a reward function such as carbon gain. However, plants are expected to optimize over longer timescales given the rapid environmental variability they encounter. There are currently no observational constraints on these timescales. Here, a new stomatal model is developed and is used to analyze the timescales over which stomatal closure is optimized. The proposed model assumes plants maximize carbon gain subject to the constraint that they cannot draw down soil moisture below a critical value. The reward is integrated over time, after being weighted by a discount factor that represents the timescale ( τ ) that a plant considers when optimizing stomatal conductance to save water. The model is simple enough to be analytically solvable, which allows the value of τ to be inferred from observations of stomatal behavior under known environmental conditions. The model is fitted to eddy covariance data in a range of ecosystems, finding the value of τ that best predicts the dynamics of evapotranspiration at each site. Across 82 sites, the climate metrics with the strongest correlation to τ are measures of the average number of dry days between rainfall events. Values of τ are similar in magnitude to the longest such dry period encountered in an average year. The results here shed light on which climate characteristics shape spatial variations in ecosystem‐level water use strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Substorm Driven Chorus Waves: Decay Timescales and Implications for Pulsating Aurora

Abstract Energetic electron precipitation (EEP) associated with pulsating aurora can transfer greater than 30 keV electrons from the outer radiation belt region into the upper atmosphere and can deplete atmospheric ozone via collisions that produce NOx and HOx molecules. Our knowledge of exactly how EEP occurs is incomplete. Previous studies have shown that pitch angle scattering between electrons and lower‐band chorus waves can cause pulsating aurora associated with EEP and that substorms play an important role. In this work, we quantify the timescale of chorus wave decay following substorms and compare that to previously determined timescales. We find that the chorus decay e‐folding time varies based on magnetic local time (MLT), magnetic latitude, and wave frequency. The shortest timescales occur for lower‐band chorus in the 21 to 9 MLT region and compares, within uncertainty, to the energetic pulsating aurora timescale of Troyer et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2022.1032552 ) for energetic pulsating aurora. We are able to further support this connection by modeling our findings in a quasi‐linear diffusion simulation. These results provide observations of how chorus waves behave after substorms and add additional statistical evidence linking energetic pulsating aurora to substorm driven lower‐band chorus waves.

Troyer, Riley N.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Recovery Timescales of the Dayside Martian Magnetosphere to IMF Variability

In this work we revisit an event observed by Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution MissioNin the solar wind where the interplanetary magneticfield (IMF) rotates around the Mars‐Sun axis during∼6 min. Based on a time‐dependent LATMOS Hybrid Simulation, we determine recovery timescales of thedayside Martian magnetosphere normalized by the IMF variability timescale. Particularly, wefind thatsuch recovery timescales range between 8 s and 11 min for an∼90° IMF rotation that lasted 50 s (observed aspart of the 6‐min time interval), depending on the considered magnetospheric region. We alsofind thatthe O+plume recovery timescales range between 40 and 120 s, taking greater values for further downstreamdistances (at least up to 1RMdownstream from the terminator plane). This range is on the order of themagnetosheath O+gyroperiod, showing the kinetic nature of the plume recovery process.

Romanelli, N.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning assisted modeling of mixing timescale for LES/PDF of high-Karlovitz turbulent premixed combustion

Accurate modeling of mixing in the transported probability density function (PDF) method remains a great challenge, especially for turbulent premixed combustion under extreme conditions such as high Karlovitz number Ka. Recently, a power-law based mixing timescale model was developed for the large-eddy simulations (LES)/PDF modeling of high-Ka number turbulent premixed flames. It is found in this work that the power-law mixing timescale model is highly sensitive to the model parameters. It is thus critically needed to develop accurate calibration of these model parameters. The empirical specification of the model parameters developed in Zhang et. al. is found to be inadequate for accurate modeling of the mixing timescale. Here, machine learning is introduced as an attractive alternative in this work for the specification of the model parameters. A high-Ka number DNS jet flame is used as the training and validation of the machine learning models. The choices of the input parameters are discussed and compared for the machine learning models. The effect of differential molecular diffusion on mixing is examined by including the effect of the Lewis number in the training of the machine learning models. The performance of different machine learning algorithms is compared for the specification of the mixing model parameters. Overall, excellent performance of the machine learning models is observed for assisting the mixing modeling. The feasibility, interpretability, applicability, generality, and portability of using machine learning are discussed in general to provide a perspective on applying data-driven machine learning for turbulent combustion modeling studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Atomistic modeling of meso -timescale processes with $\mathrm{SEAKMC}$: A perspective and recent developments

On-the-fly kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) methods have recently garnered significant attentions after successful applications to various atomic-scale problems using a timescale outside the reach of classical molecular dynamics. These methods play a critical role in modeling atomistic meso-timescale processes, and it is therefore essential to further improve their capabilities. In this report we review one of the on-the-fly kMC methods, Self-Evolving Atomistic kinetic Monte Carlo (SEAKMC) and propose two schemes that considerably enhance the efficiency of saddle point searches (SPSs) during the simulations. The performance of these schemes is tested using the diffusion of point defects in bcc Fe. In addition, we discuss approaches to significantly mitigate limitations of these schemes, which further improves their efficiencies. Importantly, these schemes improve the SPS efficiency not only for SEAKMC but also for other on-the-fly kMC methods, broadening the applications of on-the-fly kMC simulations to complex meso-timescale problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Timescales of Quantum Equilibration, Dissipation and Fluctuation in Nuclear Collisions

Understanding the dynamics of equilibration processes in quantum systems as well as their interplay with dissipation and fluctuation is a major challenge in quantum many-body theory. The timescales of such processes are investigated in collisions of atomic nuclei using fully microscopic approaches. Findings from time-dependent Hartree-Fock and time-dependent random-phase approximation calculations are compared for 13 systems over a broad range of energies. The timescale for full mass equilibration ( ~ 2 × 10 - 20 s ) is found to be much larger than timescales for neutron-to-proton equilibration, kinetic energy, and angular momentum dissipations which are on the order of 10 - 21 s . Fluctuations of mass numbers in the fragments and correlations between their neutron and proton numbers build up within only a few 10 - 21 s . This suggests that dissipation is basically not impacted by mass equilibration, but is mostly driven by the exchange of nucleons between the fragments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of rainfall variability and future change in Brazil across multiple timescales

Abstract Rainfall variability change under global warming is a crucial issue that may have a substantial impact on society and the environment, as it can directly impact biodiversity, agriculture, and water resources. Observed precipitation trends and climate change projections over Brazil indicate that many sectors of society are potentially highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The purpose of this study is to assess model projections of the change in rainfall variability at various temporal scales over sub‐regions of Brazil. For this, daily data from 30 CMIP5 models for historical (1900–2005) and future (2050–2100) experiments under a high‐emission scenario are used. We assess the change in precipitation variability, applying a band‐pass filter to isolate variability on daily, weekly, monthly, intra‐seasonal, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time scales. For historical climate, simulated precipitation is evaluated against observations to establish model reliability. The results show that models largely agree on increases in variability on all timescales in all sub‐regions, except on ENSO timescales where models do not agree on the sign of future change. Brazil will experience more rainfall variability in the future that is, drier or more frequent dry periods and wetter wet periods on daily, weekly, monthly, and intra‐seasonal timescales, even in sub‐regions where future changes in mean rainfall are currently uncertain. This may provide useful information for climate change adaptation across, for example, the agriculture and water resource sectors in Brazil.

Alves, Lincoln M.↗