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Advances in prediction of tokamak experiments with theory-based models

The successful validation of theory-based models of transport, MHD stability, heating and current drive, with tokamak measurements over the last 20 years, has laid the foundation for a new era where these models can be routinely used in a "predict first" approach to design and predict the outcomes of experiments on tokamaks today. The capability to predict the plasma confinement and core profiles with a quantified uncertainty, based on a multi-machine, international, database of experience, will provide confidence that a proposed discharge will remain within the operational limits of the tokamak. Developing this predictive capability for the first generation of burning plasma devices, beginning with ITER, and progressing to tokamak demonstration reactors, is a critical mission of fusion energy research. Major advances have been made implementing this predict first methodology on today's tokamaks. In this work, an overview of several of these recent advances will be presented, providing the integrated modeling foundations of the experimental successes. The first steps to include boundary plasmas, and tokamak control systems, have been made. A commitment to predicting experiments as part of the planning process is needed in order to collect predictive accuracy data and evolve the models and software into a robust whole discharge pulse design simulator.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Tailoring tokamak error fields to control plasma instabilities and transport

A tokamak relies on the axisymmetric magnetic fields to confine fusion plasmas and aims to deliver sustainable and clean energy. However, misalignments arise inevitably in the tokamak construction, leading to small asymmetries in the magnetic field known as error fields (EFs). The EFs have been a major concern in the tokamak approaches because small EFs, even less than 0.1%, can drive a plasma disruption. Meanwhile, the EFs in the tokamak can be favorably used for controlling plasma instabilities, such as edge-localized modes (ELMs). Here we show an optimization that tailors the EFs to maintain an edge 3D response for ELM control with a minimized core 3D response to avoid plasma disruption and unnecessary confinement degradation. We design and demonstrate such an edge-localized 3D response in the KSTAR facility, benefiting from its unique flexibility to change many degrees of freedom in the 3D coil space for the various fusion plasma regimes. This favorable control of the tokamak EF represents a notable advance for designing intrinsically 3D tokamaks to optimize stability and confinement for next-step fusion reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Developing solid-surface plasma facing components for pilot plants and reactors with replenishable wall claddings and continuous surface conditioning. Part B: required research in present tokamaks

Abstract The companion part A paper (Stangeby et al 2022) reports a number of independent estimates indicating that high-duty-cycle DT tokamaks starting with pilot plants will likely experience rates of net erosion and deposition of solid PFC, plasma facing component, material in the range of 10 3 to 10 4 kg yr −1 , regardless of the material used. The subsequent redeposition of such large quantities of material has the potential for major interference with tokamak operation. Similar levels and issues will be involved if ∼continuous low-Z powder dropping is used for surface conditioning of DT tokamaks, independent of the material used for the PFC armor. In Stangeby et al (2022) (part A) it is proposed that for high-duty-cycle DT tokamaks, non-metallic low-Z refractory materials such as ceramics (graphite, SiC, etc) used as in situ replenishable, relatively thin—of order mm—claddings on a substrate which is resistant to neutron damage could provide a potential solution for protecting the main walls, while reducing the risk of degrading the confined plasma. Assessment of whether such an approach is viable will require information, much of which is not available today. Section 6 of part A identifies a partial list of major physics questions that will need to be answered in order to make an informed assessment. This part B report describes R&D needed to be done in present tokamaks in order to answer many of these questions. Most of the required R&D is to establish better understanding of low-Z slag generation and to identify means to safely manage it. Powder droppers provide a unique opportunity to carry out controlled studies on the management of low-Z slag in current tokamaks, independent of whether their protection tiles use low-Z or high-Z material.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

An E and B gyrokinetic simulation model for kinetic Alfvén waves in tokamak plasmas

The gyrokinetic particle simulation is a powerful tool for studies of transport, nonlinear phenomenon, and energetic particle physics in tokamak plasmas. While most gyrokinetic simulations make use of the scalar and vector potentials, a new model (GK-E&B) has been developed by using the E and B field in a general form and has been implemented in simulating kinetic Alfvén waves in uniform plasma. In our work, the Chen et al. GK-E&B model has been expressed, in general, tokamak geometry using the local orthogonal coordinates and general tokamak coordinates. Its reduction for uniform plasma is verified, and the numerical results show good agreement with the original work. The theoretical dispersion relation and numerical results in the local model in screw pinch geometry are also in excellent agreement. Numerical results show excellent performance in a realistic parameter regime of burning plasmas with high values of β/(M e k$^{2}_{⊥}$ρ$^{2}_{i}$), which is a challenge for traditional methods due to the “cancellation” problem. As one application, the GK-E&B model is implemented with kinetic electrons in the local single flux surface limit. With the matched International Tokamak Physics Activity-Toroidicity-induced Alfvén Eigenmodes parameters adopted, numerical results show the capability of the GK-E&B in treating the parallel electron Landau damping for realistic tokamak plasma parameters. As another application, the global GK-E&B model has been implemented with the dominant electron contribution in the cold electron limit. Its capability in simulating the finite E || due to the finite electron mass is demonstrated.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Integrated operation scenarios: Chapter 6 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

Here we report the progress of the development and optimization of operational scenarios for ITER and beyond, focusing upon baseline, hybrid, and steady-state scenarios since 2007. This includes advancements made by the integrated operation scenarios (IOS) topical group of the international tokamak physical activity as well as contributions from the broader tokamak community. The key area of research involves developing IOSs that encompass tokamak physics, operation, and technology by utilizing integrated modeling and control strategies. This requires leveraging available actuators to simultaneously control plasma position and shape, MHD activities that could lead to disruptions, transport, plasma-wall interaction and power exhaust, fuel cycle, fusion burn, and tritium breeding. The control extends from the plasma initiation phase, through the current ramp-up, flattop, start and end of the fusion burn, and current ramp-down, to the plasma termination phase. A review of the currently developed scenarios and modeling is provided in terms of (i) optimizing plasma initiation in ITER, (ii) preparing for the low activation phase to fully commission all tokamak systems and establish and validate physics and scenario conditions in preparation for deuterim-tritium (DT) operation, (iii) developing and preparing baseline and hybrid scenarios to demonstrate the feasibility of achieving these regimes within device constraints, (iv) exploring steady-state scenarios to meet ITER’s steady-state goals, (v) evaluating and preparing actuators for ITER, (vi) developing integrated control solutions using shared actuators. The most notable achievements include; (i) the development of ITER demonstration discharges by matching various dimensionless parameters, (ii) the development of scenarios in an ITER-like tungsten environment and DT operation, and (iii) the development of scenarios in superconducting tokamaks, enabling long-pulse operations with similar coil constraints to ITER. Along with these significant achievements, outstanding issues and recommendations for further research and development are provided. Importantly, this study goes beyond simply updating the ITER Physics Basis; it carries profound implications for the broader field of burning plasma research, offering valuable insights and guidance for the next generation of fusion experiments and devices.

ITER↗

Tech-X contributions to the Center for Tokamak Transients (CTTS) Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) project (Final Report)

The Center for Tokamak Transients Simulations (CTTS) consists of computational plasma physicists, computer scientists, and applied mathematicians who are together developing and applying simulation software to improve our understanding of and ability to predict and control transient events in tokamak discharges, particularly those that lead to violent disruptions. We have major simulation activities concerning disruptions that are caused by violating ideal MHD stability criteria, vertical displacement events, resistive wall modes, and tearing modes. We are performing comprehensive modeling of disruption mitigation techniques, particularly by shattered pellet injection (SPI). The Center is built around two mature extended MHD codes: NIMROD and M3D-C1. These codes are being extended in a number of ways as required by the demands of disruption modeling, and are being optimized to work well for larger problem size and modern computer architectures as required to model tokamak plasmas with realistic parameters over the required timescales. The codes will be coupled to the FronTier code for state-of-the-art modeling of SPI. Validation with experimental data on DIII-D, NSTX, and JET is being facilitated by rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ). The high-level objectives of the center are to: (1) Develop better understanding and improved predictive capability of when crossing a linear stability boundary will likely lead to a disruption, (2) Provide a tool for calculating vessel forces, both axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric, for worst case VDE and other disruptions in tokamaks, (3) Develop increased understanding and improved predictive capability for locked mode disruptions and how best to avoid them, (4) Develop, verify, and validate 3D models for disruption mitigation by shattered pellets that can be used to design and optimize a system for future tokamaks, and (5) Increase the efficiency and scalability of the M3D-C1 and NIMROD codes so that they can model disruptions in ITER scale devices using the most powerful DOE HPC hardware, and (6) Demonstrate code-coupling via FronTier coupling with NIMROD and M3D-C1 and by interfacing these codes within a WDM framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Center for Tokamak Transients Simulations

The major goals for the Center for Tokamak Transients Simulations (CTTS) were to develop detailed numerical simulations of disruptive transients in tokamak experiments and to use them in theoretical studies of the thermal-quench (TQ) and current-quench (CQ) phases of disruption. The University of Wisconsin-Madison component of CTTS contributed relevant development for the NIMROD code (https://nimrodteam.org) and applied it to disruptions that involve global vertical displacement. Code-development contributions include boundary conditions that represent sheath effects which occur when tokamak plasma is in contact with the surrounding vessel wall during vertical displacement events (VDEs). We also implemented a reduced model of energetic runaway electrons (REs) to simulate the effect of these energetic electrons on the CQ phase of tokamak disruptions. Our computations of VDEs include 2D and 3D verification through benchmarks with two other widely used macroscale plasma simulation codes, M3D-C1 and JOREK. Over nonlinear evolution to the final termination of plasma current, the 2D simulation results on magnetic axis location, toroidal current, and halo current track each other well. With the 3D benchmark computation, all three codes found the same qualitative behavior of the asymmetric instabilities having increasing growth rate after contact with the wall, followed by nonlinear excitation of other toroidal harmonics. Our NIMROD computations for an idealized configuration show agreement with an analytical assessment by V. D. Pustovitov [Nucl. Fusion 55, 113032 (2015)] that the plasma and non-ideal wall remain in force-balance such that net forces only result from magnetic stresses over the outer surface of the wall. Our study of the influence of boundary conditions on VDEs shows that extended-MHD simulations of VDEs are sensitive to electron energy transport to the wall and that boundary conditions on flow are only significant to the extent that they influence the electron energy transport. Resistive-MHD NIMROD simulations of the tokamak discharges in the Madison Symmetric Torus show that magnetic perturbations of poloidal wavenumber m=3 lead to chaotic magnetic topology over the edge region, which helps deconfine energetic electrons. A second area of RE study shows that the coupled resistive MHD/reduced RE model reproduces the resistive-hose particle-beam instability. With respect to educational opportunities, this effort involved and supported four graduate students at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and one postdoctoral associate. The results of this study have been disseminated through journal publications, conference presentations, technical reports, and PhD dissertations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A method for automated modeling of plasma shape control response in tokamaks

Here, a simple method commonly used in modeling of tokamak conductor and plasma response for plasma control has been extended to allow more general modeling of tokamak PF conductor circuits. This extension combines a previously existing method for integrating plasma response and tokamak circuits with a more capable circuit modeling technique derived from the theory that underlies present-day automatic circuit simulation codes. This combined method can incorporate any combination of inductors (e.g., coils), resistors, capacitors, voltage sources, and current sources, while retaining the same model structure and ease of interpretation as the simple method. For many tokamaks, use of this extended method would not be the preferred approach, but for certain devices or for specialized models of a device, it is useful and occasionally essential. For example, the method has enabled fast and automated modeling of the complicated and daily-changing circuit topology used in the DIII-D tokamak. This automated modeling is essential to the support of controller design for the frequently changing requirements for DIII-D plasmas. It is likely to also find application in the workflows for new device designs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Spectroscopic measurement of increases in hydrogen molecular rotational temperature with plasma-facing surface temperature and due to collisional-radiative processes in tokamaks

Abstract Spatially resolved rotational temperature of ground state hydrogen molecules desorbed from plasma-facing surface was measured in QUEST, LTX-β, and DIII-D tokamaks, and the increases of the rotational temperature with the surface temperature and due to collisional-radiative processes in the plasmas were evaluated. The increase due to collisional-radiative processes was calculated by solving rate equations considering electron and proton collisional excitation and deexcitation and spontaneous emission. The calculation results suggest a high sensitivity for the rotational temperature to electron and proton densities, but a negligible sensitivity to the electron, proton, and surface temperatures. In the three tokamaks with different plasma parameters and plasma-facing surface materials, the spatial profile of the rotational temperature was estimated using Fulcher-α emission lines (600–608 nm). In QUEST, the spatial profile of the rotational temperature was estimated from spatially resolved spectra. In the other tokamaks, the rotational temperature was evaluated assuming a single point emission with a location determined from the Fulcher-α emission profile as measured with a filtered camera. In metal-walled devices QUEST and LTX-β, the rotational temperature increased with the surface temperature, and the calculated collisional-radiative increase is consistent with measured increase assuming that the rotational temperature at the surface is approximately 500–600 K higher than the surface temperature. In DIII-D with carbon walls, a larger collisional-radiative increase than the other tokamaks was observed because of the higher density leading to a large difference from the calculated increase compared to the other smaller tokamaks. Measurement of the Fulcher-α emission profile with higher spatial resolution in DIII-D may reduce the difference and reveal the effect of the surface temperature on the rotational temperature. These results show the increases in the rotational temperature with the surface temperature and due to the collisional-radiative processes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Tokamak Disruption Simulation (Final Technical Report)

The Tokamak Disruption Simulation collaboration was a SciDAC (Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing) program led by Xianzhu Tang of the Los Alamos National Laboratory but with separate grants to each institution. I was the PI for Columbia University and the only person at Columbia directly funded by this SciDAC. Disruptions are a sudden loss of confinement in tokamaks, and a reliable method of preventing disruptions must be developed before tokamak fusion power plants become feasible. A related plasma confinement concept, the stellarator, is the only way known way of preventing disruptions with the required reliability. The largest devices, both existing and under construction, for confining plasmas for fusion using magnetic fields are tokamaks, so it is important to solve their disruption issues. The sudden loss of confinement in tokamaks can be from a bit of material falling into the plasma, which causes the plasma energy to be quickly lost by radiation, or by an instability causing a breakup of the confining surfaces formed by the magnetic field. This breakup can occur more than a million times faster than one would naively think possible. The sudden breakup of surfaces is called a fast magnetic reconnection and also results in a sudden cooling of the plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

TRANSP integrated modeling code for interpretive and predictive analysis of tokamak plasmas

This paper provides a comprehensive review of the TRANSP code, a sophisticated tool for interpretive and predictive analysis of tokamak plasmas, detailing its major capabilities and features. It describes the equations for particle, power, and momentum balance analysis, as well as the poloidal field diffusion equations. The paper outlines the spatial and time grids used in TRANSP and details the equilibrium assumptions and solvers. Various models for heating and current drive and radiation, including updates to the NUBEAM model, are discussed. The handling of large-scale events such as sawtooth crashes and pellet injections is examined, along with the predictive capabilities for advancing plasma profiles. The integration of TRANSP with the ITER Integrated Modeling and Analysis Suite (IMAS) is highlighted, demonstrating enhanced data access and analysis capabilities. Additionally, the paper discusses best practices and continuous integration techniques to enhance TRANSP's robustness. The suite of TRANSP tools, designed for efficient data analysis and simulation, further supports the optimization of tokamak operations and coupling with other tokamak codes. Continuous development and support ensure that TRANSP remains a major code for the analysis of experimental data for controlled thermonuclear fusion, maintaining its critical role in supporting the optimization of tokamak operations and advancing fusion research.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

X-point effects on the ideal MHD modes in tokamaks in the description of dual-poloidal-region safety factor

The flux coordinates with dual-region safety factor (q) in the poloidal direction are developed in this work. The X-point effects on the ideal MHD modes in tokamaks are then analyzed using this coordinate system. Since the X-point effects mainly affect the edge region, the modes localized at the tokamak edge are particularly examined. Two types of modes are studied. The first is related to the conventional peeling or peeling-ballooning modes. The mode existence aligned with the local magnetic field in the poloidally core region as observed experimentally is confirmed. The X points are shown to contribute to a stabilizing effect for the conventionally treated modes with the surface-averaged q and with the tokamak edge portion truncated. The other is the axisymmetric modes localized in the vicinity of X points, which can affect the cross-field-line transport near the X points. The existence of axisymmetric modes points to the possibility of applying a toroidally axisymmetric resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) in the X-point area for mitigating the edge localized modes, which can be an alternative to the current RMP design. The dual q description also has important implications for the existing non-axisymmetric RMP concept. It helps to understand why the RMP suppression of edge localized modes is difficult to achieve in the double-null tokamak configurations and points to the possibility of further improving the current RMP concept by considering the alignment to the local q.

Fourier analysis↗

Density limits as disruption forecasters for spherical tokamaks

Fusion power output from spherical tokamaks would benefit from increased confined plasma density, but there exists a limit on the density before confinement is lost and the plasma current is disrupted. This density limit has long been characterized by a simple, global Greenwald limit proportional to the plasma current and inversely proportional to the cross sectional area of the plasma. It is shown that in the database of discharges from the National Spherical Tokamak Experiment (NSTX) and Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST) spherical tokamaks, the likelihood of disruption does increase above the Greenwald limit, and especially in the plasma current rampdown phase. The physics of the density limit has been recently theoretically explored through local criteria. Several of these are tested using the disruption event characterization and forecasting (DECAF TM ) code for their potential effectiveness as disruption warning signals. For a limited set of NSTX discharges, a local island power balance criteria was found to be less reliable, presently, than the Greenwald limit. For this work, an empirical critical edge line density and a boundary turbulent transport limit were both tested for MAST-U, which has an electron density profile measurement with high spatial resolution in the outer part of the plasma. Both were found to have similar dependencies on key plasma parameters. In a limited set of MAST-U discharges that appear to disrupt due to rising density at values under the Greenwald limit, crossing of the boundary turbulent transport limit occurred close to the time of disruption. Finally, these limits were evaluated for their potential use in real-time, and it was found that with the necessary real-time inputs and with refinement through further testing, these limits could be implemented in a real-time disruption forecasting system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Fusion pilot plant performance and the role of a sustained high power density tokamak

Here, recent U.S. fusion development strategy reports all recommend that the U.S. should pursue innovative science and technology to enable construction of a fusion pilot plant (FPP) that produces net electricity from fusion at low capital cost. Compact tokamaks have been proposed as a means of potentially reducing the capital cost of a FPP. However, compact steady-state tokamak FPPs face the challenge of integrating a high fraction of self-driven current with high core confinement, plasma pressure, and high divertor parallel heat flux. This integration is sufficiently challenging that a dedicated sustained-high-power-density (SHPD) tokamak facility is proposed by the U.S. community as the optimal way to close this integration gap. Performance projections for the steady-state tokamak FPP regime are presented and a preliminary SHPD device with substantial flexibility in lower aspect ratio (A = 2–2.5), shaping, and divertor configuration to narrow gaps to an FPP is described.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Cross-machine comparison of runaway electron generation during tokamak start-up for extrapolation to ITER

A cross-machine comparison of global parameters that determine the runaway electron (RE) generation and loss process during tokamak start-up was carried out with the aim to extrapolate these to ITER. The study found that all considered discharges, also those that do not show signs of RE, are non-thermal at the start, i.e. have a streaming parameter larger than 0.1. During the current ramp-up the electric field, E, remains above the critical value, E c , that allows RE in the plasma. The distinction to be made is not if RE can form but, if sufficient RE can form fast enough such that they are detected or start to dominate the dynamics of the tokamak discharge. The dynamics of the value of E, density and temperature during tokamak are key to the formation of RE. It was found that larger devices operate with E closer to E c , due to their higher temperatures, hence the RE generation is relatively slower. The slower time scales for the formation of RE, estimated to be of the order of 100s of ms in ITER simplifies the development of avoidance schemes. The RE confinement time is also an important determinant of the entire process and is found to increase with the device size. The study also revealed that drift orbit losses, a mechanism often attributed as the main RE loss mechanism during the early tokamak discharge, are actually more difficult to achieve. RE losses might be more likely attributed to RE diffusion due to magnetic turbulence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Tokamak divertor plasma emulation with machine learning

Abstract Future tokamak devices that aim to create conditions relevant to power plant operations must consider strategies for mitigating damage to plasma facing components in the divertor. One of the goals of MAST-U tokamak operations is to inform these considerations by researching advanced divertor configurations that aid stable plasma detachment. Machine design, scenario planning and detachment control would all greatly benefit from tools that enable rapid calculation of scenario-relevant quantities given some input parameters. This paper presents a method for generating large, simulated scrape-off layer data sets, which was applied to generate a data set of steady-state Hermes-3 simulations of the MAST-U tokamak. A machine learning model was constructed using a Bayesian approach to hyperparameter optimisation to predict diagnosable output quantities given control-relevant input features. The resulting best-performing model, which is based on a feedforward neural network, achieves high accuracy when predicting electron temperature at the divertor target and carbon impurity radiation front position and runs in around 1 ms in inference mode. Techniques for interpreting the predictions made by the model were applied, and a high-resolution parameter scan of upstream conditions was performed to demonstrate the utility of rapidly generating accurate predictions using the emulator. This work represents a step forward in the design of machine learning-driven emulators of tokamak exhaust simulation codes in operational modes relevant to divertor detachment control and plasma scenario design.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Introduction and overview: Chapter 1 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

The International Tokamak Physics Activity (ITPA) has developed a comprehensive overview of the results of its coordinated R&D activities in fusion physics and diagnostics implemented during the past two decades with the aim of developing an improved physics basis for the operation of tokamak burning plasma experiments. Here, an introduction is presented to key concepts in the physics of burning plasmas in tokamaks, together with an overview of the scope of the principal areas of physics R&D pursued by the ITPA Topical Physics Groups in which the critical issues, major areas of progress and most significant recent results are highlighted. This paper introduces the following collection of articles, which encompass detailed presentations of the progress achieved by the Topical Groups in preparing the physics basis for the operation of tokamak burning plasma experiments expected to come into operation in the 2030s.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Reference Governor for Plasma-Shape Control in Tokamaks

Tokamaks are torus-shaped devices where a high-temperature, ionized gas (i.e. a plasma) is confined by means of helical magnetic fields. The ultimate goal of tokamaks is producing net electrical energy by means of nuclear-fusion reactions within the plasma. The shape of the plasma inside the tokamak is closely related with its confinement characteristics and, therefore, with the produced fusion power. In order to achieve and maintain plasma shapes that maximize the fusion yield, feedback controllers have been successfully developed during the years. However, machine-protection and plasma-stability requirements impose hard constraints on the plasma-shape targets that can be safely achieved by a feedback controller. In this work, a reference governor is proposed to provide, in real time, plasma-shape targets that fulfill the aforementioned safety requirements. The reference governor calculates such plasma-shape targets in response to changes in the state of the closed-loop system, as well as disturbances in the plasma energy and current. Here, the reference-governor design is based on a dynamical model of the plasma electromagnetic response. Simulation tests of the reference governor have been carried out for different plasma scenarios in the DIII-D tokamak to emulate realistic cases where safety may be compromised.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗