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DOE OSTI2024

Bill Savings vs. Backup Power: Evaluating operational tradeoffs for home solar+storage systems [Slides]

This study explores tradeoffs between the use of home solar+storage systems for backup power versus day-to-day utility bill savings. The study focuses specifically on the “reserve setting” available with most home battery storage systems, which allow the customer to maintain some minimum level of storage in reserve in case of an unforeseen power interruption. The more capacity that is held in reserve, the greater the customer’s ability to ride-through possible power interruptions, but less capacity is then available to manage utility bills on a day-to-day basis. This study evaluates this operational tradeoff across a diverse set of locations and residential electricity tariff structures, relying on Berkeley Lab’s PRESTO model to stochastically simulate power interruption events, and exploring a range of sensitivities, including variations in customer value of lost load (VoLL), interruption frequency, and other key drivers. The results show that, in most circumstances, the opportunity cost of holding storage capacity in reserve, in terms of foregone bill saving, tends to outweigh any gains in reliability value associated with mitigated power interruptions. This finding is robust across tariff structures and across most of the sensitivities considered, including those related to rate level, customer load level, and storage sizing. There are a limited set of circumstances where raising the reserve setting improves the overall customer value (comprised of bill savings plus reliability value). Specifically, that exception occurs when all of the following conditions apply: (a) the customer resides in a location with exceptionally poor reliability, (b) the customer has exceptionally high VoLL; (c) the customer is on a net billing rate or on a TOU rate that allows grid discharging but not grid charging; and (d), depending on the location, the price arbitrage differential on that rate is relatively small. In all other circumstances analyzed, total customer value declines with reserve level.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Bias-Variance-Correlation Tradeoff and Its Implications for ML Applications in HEP

The bias-variance tradeoff is a well-recognized phenomenon in statistics and machine learning. In this talk, I will discuss an extension, dubbed the bias-variance-correlation tradeoff. Roughly speaking, as the flexibility of a model decreases, the correlations in the outputs of a trained model for different inputs increases. Such correlations have implications for several applications of machine learning in high energy physics, e.g., the use generative models for event generation. In particular, I will argue that claims in the literature of data amplification by generative models stem from ignoring important correlations between the model's outputs for different inputs.

Shyamsundar, Prasanth [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000227↗

NASA NTRS1973

Multiple-beam satellite repeater tradeoffs applied to a multifunctional system.

This paper concerns satellite repeater tradeoffs for a multiple-beam, multiple-channel, multiple-connectivity satellite postulated to serve a diversity of domestic U.S. noncommercial requirements, with a substantial portion of the satellite power, weight, and bandwidth dedicated to video distribution and bradcast. The orders-of-magnitude of the requirements are given for the video plus high-rate data traffic category. The designs of two alternative baseline repeater configurations are presented, and estimates of their weight and their prime power consumption are given. These data are the basis for estimating the weight and power consumption of a range of alternative beam coverage, modulation, and channel capacity systems. These estimates are used to illustrate tradeoffs with different performance criteria as the independent variable: number of channels per beam and total number of beam-channels.

Kinal, G. V.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Video framerate, resolution and grayscale tradeoffs for undersea telemanipulator

The product of Frame Rate (F) in frames per second, Resolution (R) in total pixels and grayscale in bits (G) equals the transmission band rate in bits per second. Thus for a fixed channel capacity there are tradeoffs between F, R and G in the actual sampling of the picture for a particular manual control task in the present case remote undersea manipulation. A manipulator was used in the MASTER/SLAVE mode to study these tradeoffs. Images were systematically degraded from 28 frames per second, 128 x 128 pixels and 16 levels (4 bits) grayscale, with various FRG combinations constructed from a real-time digitized (charge-injection) video camera. It was found that frame rate, resolution and grayscale could be independently reduced without preventing the operator from accomplishing his/her task. Threshold points were found beyond which degradation would prevent any successful performance. A general conclusion is that a well trained operator can perform familiar remote manipulator tasks with a considerably degrade picture, down to 50 K bits/ sec.

Ranadive, V.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Design tradeoffs for a Multispectral Linear Array (MLA) instrument

The heart of the multispectral linear array (MLA) design problem is to develop an instrument concept which concurrently provides a wide field-of-view with high resolution, spectral separation with precise band-to band registration, and excellent radiometric accuracy. Often, these requirements have conflicting design implications which can only be resolved by careful tradeoffs that consider performance, cost, fabrication feasibility and development risk. The key design tradeoffs for an MLA instrument are addressed, and elements of a baseline instrument concept are presented.

Mika, A. M.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Coding tradeoffs for improved performance of FH/MFSK systems in partial band noise

Partial band noise jamming can severely degrade the performance of frequency-hopped, M-ary frequency-shift keyed communciation systems. This paper illustrates the tradeoffs between channel coding, diversity, and block orthogonal (MFSK) modulation as a means of overcoming the advantage of worst case, non-adaptive (as opposed to repeat-back) partial band jamming. For ease of computation, the analysis relies on exponentially tight error bounds, and is based on a noncoherent detection metric that requires jamming state information for each hop. A more robust, less complex receiver structure which eliminates the jamming knowledge requirement is shown to degrade performance less than 2-1/2 dB. The coding tradeoffs discussed in this report are exemplified in the design of a hypothetical 32 kb/s military frequency-hopped communication link.

Levitt, B. K.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Tradeoff methods in multiobjective insensitive design of airplane control systems

The latest results of an ongoing study of computer-aided design of airplane control systems are given. Constrained minimization algorithms are used, with the design objectives in the constraint vector. The concept of Pareto optimiality is briefly reviewed. It is shown how an experienced designer can use it to find designs which are well-balanced in all objectives. Then the problem of finding designs which are insensitive to uncertainty in system parameters are discussed, introducing a probabilistic vector definition of sensitivity which is consistent with the deterministic Pareto optimal problem. Insensitivity is important in any practical design, but it is particularly important in the design of feedback control systems, since it is considered to be the most important distinctive property of feedback control. Methods of tradeoff between deterministic and stochastic-insensitive (SI) design are described, and tradeoff design results are presented for the example of the a Shuttle lateral stability augmentation system. This example is used because careful studies have been made of the uncertainty in Shuttle aerodynamics. Finally, since accurate statistics of uncertain parameters are usually not available, the effects of crude statistical models on SI designs are examined.

Schy, A. A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Earth-based antenna network tradeoffs for NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (SEI)

The results of a tradeoff study conducted for selection of the most viable earth-based antenna network architecture for support of NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) lunar and mars missions are summarized. The study addressed the lunar mission support requirements, and examined the performance, operations, and cost tradeoffs of using either the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) large 34-m antennas or smaller commercial antennas to replace or supplement the 34-m antennas. The results are presented as a set of eight tables.

Manshadi, F.↗

NASA NTRS1996

A test of the deadline model for speed-accuracy tradeoffs

Two experiments were conducted to evaluate the deadline model for speed-accuracy tradeoffs. According to the deadline model, participants in speeded-response tasks terminate stimulus discrimination as soon as it has run to completion or as soon as a predetermined time deadline has arrived, whichever comes first. Speed is traded for accuracy by varying the time deadlines; short deadlines yield fast but sometimes inaccurate responses, whereas long deadlines allow for slow, accurate responses. A new prediction of this model, based on a comparison of reaction time distributions, was derived and tested in experiments involving the joint manipulation of speed stress and stimulus discriminability. Clear violations of this prediction were observed when participants made relative brightness judgments (Experiment 1) and when they made lexical decisions (Experiment 2), rejecting both the deadline model and the fast-guess model. Several alternative models for speed-accuracy tradeoffs, including random-walk and accumulator models, are compatible with the results.

Discrimination (Psychology)↗

NASA NTRS2016

Range and Endurance Tradeoffs on Personal Rotorcraft Design

Rotorcraft design has always been a challenging tradeoff among overall size, capabilities, complexity, and other factors based on available technology and customer requirements. Advancements in propulsion, energy systems and other technologies have enabled new vehicles and missions; complementary advances in analysis methods and tools enable exploration of these enhanced vehicles and the evolving mission design space. A system study was performed to better understand the interdependency between vehicle design and propulsion system capabilities versus hover / loiter requirements and range capability. Three representative vertical lift vehicles were developed to explore the tradeoff in capability between hover efficiency versus range and endurance capability. The vehicles were a single-main rotor helicopter, a tilt rotor, and a vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft. Vehicle capability was limited to two or three people (including pilot or crew) and maximum range within one hour of flight (100-200 miles, depending on vehicle). Two types of propulsion and energy storage systems were used in this study. First was traditional hydrocarbon-fueled cycles (such as Otto, diesel or gas turbine cycles). Second was an all-electric system using electric motors, power management and distribution, assuming batteries for energy storage, with the possibility of hydrocarbon-fueled range extenders. The high power requirements for hover significantly reduced mission radius capability. Loiter was less power intensive, resulting in about 1/2 the equivalent mission radius penalty. With so many design variables, the VTOL aircraft has the potential to perform well for a variety of missions. This vehicle is a good candidate for additional study; component model development is also required to adequately assess performance over the design space of interest.

systems analysis↗

NASA NTRS2016

Range and Endurance Tradeoffs on Personal Rotorcraft Design

Rotorcraft design has always been a challenging tradeoff among overall size, capabilities, complexity, and other factors based on available technology and customer requirements. Advancements in propulsion, energy systems and other technologies have enabled new vehicles and missions; complementary advances in analysis methods and tools enable exploration of these enhanced vehicles and the evolving mission design space. A system study was performed to better understand the interdependency between vehicle design and propulsion system capabilities versus hover loiter requirements and range capability. Three representative vertical lift vehicles were developed to explore the tradeoff in capability between hover efficiency versus range and endurance capability. The vehicles were a single-main rotor helicopter, a tilt rotor, and a vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft. Vehicle capability was limited to two or three people (including pilot or crew) and maximum range within one hour of flight (100-200 miles, depending on vehicle). Two types of propulsion and energy storage systems were used in this study. First was traditional hydrocarbon-fueled cycles (such as Otto, diesel or gas turbine cycles). Second was an all-electric system using electric motors, power management and distribution, assuming batteries for energy storage, with the possibility of hydrocarbon-fueled range extenders. The high power requirements for hover significantly reduced mission radius capability. Loiter was less power intensive, resulting in about 12 the equivalent mission radius penalty. With so many design variables, the VTOL aircraft has the potential to perform well for a variety of missions. This vehicle is a good candidate for additional study; component model development is also required to adequately assess performance over the design space of interest.

systems analysis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Laboratory Psychoacoustic Test of the Tradeoff Between Frequent UAM Events and Their Level

Earlier this year, a psychoacoustic test was conducted in the EER which investigated how members of the public reacted to scenarios containing multiple UAM flyover events. The subjects read books of their choosing for 4 minutes at a time, during which a scenario played. They were asked to register their annoyance reaction to the scenario on an 11 point numerical scale after all of the flyovers had played. The scenarios were formulated to have several different tradeoffs between the number of flyovers played within the 4 minutes, and the level of the flyovers. The results indicate that for paces of operations typical of a busy airport (from .5 to 2 flyovers per minute), subjects seemed to be more sensitive to an increase in the number of operations than would be implied by the equal-energy hypothesis. For numbers of operations greater than this - more than what could be achieved at an airport, but perhaps what is possible in UAM scenarios - the subjects were less sensitive to increases in the number of operations and seemed to revert to the equal-energy tradeoff between level and number.

Psychoacoustics↗

DOE OSTI2019

Bacterial Tradeoffs in Growth Rate and Extracellular Enzymes

Like larger organisms, bacteria possess traits, or phenotypic characteristics, that influence growth and impact ecosystem processes. Still, it remains unclear how these traits are organized across bacterial lineages. Using 49 bacterial strains isolated from leaf litter in Southern California, we tested the hypothesis that bacterial growth rates trade off against extracellular enzyme investment. We also tested for phylogenetic conservation of these traits under high and low resource conditions represented, respectively, by Luria broth (LB) and a monomer-dominated medium extracted from plant litter. In support of our hypotheses, we found a negative correlation between the maximum growth rate and the total activity of carbon-, nitrogen-, and phosphorus-degrading extracellular enzymes. However, this tradeoff was only observed under high resource conditions. We also found significant phylogenetic signal in maximum growth rate and extracellular enzyme investment under high and low resource conditions. Driven by our bacterial trait data, we proposed three potential life history strategies. Resource acquisition strategists invest heavily in extracellular enzyme production. Growth strategists invest in high growth rates. Bacteria in a third category showed lower potential for enzyme production and growth, so we tentatively classified them as maintenance strategists that may perform better under conditions we did not measure. These strategies were related to bacterial phylogeny, with most growth strategists belonging to the phylum Proteobacteria and most maintenance and resource acquisition strategists belonging to the phylum Actinobacteria. By accounting for extracellular enzyme investment, our proposed life history strategies complement existing frameworks, such as the copiotroph-oligotroph continuum and Grime’s competitorstress tolerator-ruderal triangle. Our results have biogeochemical implications because allocation to extracellular enzymes versus growth or stress tolerance can determine the fate and form of organic matter cycling through surface soil.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tradeoffs in life cycle water use and greenhouse gas emissions of hydrogen production pathways

Hydrogen has been promoted as a key component of global decarbonization efforts, with various past studies estimating carbon emissions for several production pathways, but little past work has considered its water resource needs. This life cycle analysis considers hydrogen production on a per-kilogram basis for 11 pathways, fossil and non-fossil. It also includes impacts of treating water to the required quality for hydrogen production. Greenhouse gas emissions results were in a range of –15 to +31 kg CO 2 e/kg H 2 produced. Water consumption varied more widely, from about 7 to 55 kg water/kg H 2 for fossil-based pathways and 530 to 3400 kg water/kg H 2 for biomass-based pathways. Electrolysis with various renewable electricity scenarios were also modeled. Altogether, there are challenging tradeoffs to be navigated to achieve a low carbon and water footprint in hydrogen economy.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tradeoffs in forest resilience to satellite-based estimates of water and productivity losses

Climate change is expected to intensify the global hydrological cycle via increased evapotranspiration (ET). Changes in ET have important consequences for water-related ecosystem services as well as for forest productivity. Forests play a critical role in ET: active trees sequester carbon at the expense of losing water, yet if they are not active, water remains in the trees, but productivity stalls. Here, we estimated the capacity of forests to recover (resilience) from extreme water or productivity losses based on modeled ET through remote sensing methods across the conterminous USA. Results show there is a spatial tradeoff in resilience to water or productivity losses. Forests were more resilient to water loss in the drier west, and more resilient to productivity loss in the wetter east. Still, resilience was highly heterogeneous across the continent. Projections under climate change indicate both declines and increases of up to 13% in forest resilience, with broad regional trends but high spatial heterogeneity within regions. This study brings crucial satellite-based insights on how water dynamics, and consequentially productivity and water provision in forests, might be impacted by climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate-Induced Tradeoffs in Planning and Operating Costs of a Regional Electricity System

Electricity grid planners design the system in order to supply electricity to end users reliably and affordably. Climate change threatens both objectives through potentially compounding supply- and demand-side climate-induced impacts. Uncertainty surrounds each of these future potential impacts. Given long planning horizons, system planners must weigh investment costs against operational costs under this uncertainty. Here, we developed a comprehensive and coherent integrated modeling framework combining physically-based models with cost-minimizing optimization models in the power system. We applied this modeling framework to analyze potential tradeoffs in planning and operating costs in the power grid due to climate change in the Southeast U.S. in 2050. We find that planning decisions that do not account for climate-induced impacts would result in a substantial increase in social costs associated with loss of load. These social costs are a result of under-investment in new capacity and capacity deratings of thermal generators when we included climate change impacts in the operation stage. Finally, these results highlight the importance of including climate change effects in the planning process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Climate-driven tradeoffs between landscape connectivity and the maintenance of the coastal carbon sink

Abstract Ecosystem connectivity tends to increase the resilience and function of ecosystems responding to stressors. Coastal ecosystems sequester disproportionately large amounts of carbon, but rapid exchange of water, nutrients, and sediment makes them vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. Individual components of the coastal landscape (i.e., marsh, forest, bay) have contrasting responses to sea level rise, making it difficult to forecast the response of the integrated coastal carbon sink. Here we couple a spatially-explicit geomorphic model with a point-based carbon accumulation model, and show that landscape connectivity, in-situ carbon accumulation rates, and the size of the landscape-scale coastal carbon stock all peak at intermediate sea level rise rates despite divergent responses of individual components. Progressive loss of forest biomass under increasing sea level rise leads to a shift from a system dominated by forest biomass carbon towards one dominated by marsh soil carbon that is maintained by substantial recycling of organic carbon between marshes and bays. These results suggest that climate change strengthens connectivity between adjacent coastal ecosystems, but with tradeoffs that include a shift towards more labile carbon, smaller marsh and forest extents, and the accumulation of carbon in portions of the landscape more vulnerable to sea level rise and erosion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deep mutational scanning reveals the molecular determinants of RNA polymerase-mediated adaptation and tradeoffs

RNA polymerase (RNAP) is emblematic of complex biological systems that control multiple traits involving trade-offs such as growth versus maintenance. Laboratory evolution has revealed that mutations in RNAP subunits, including RpoB, are frequently selected. However, we lack a systems view of how mutations alter the RNAP molecular functions to promote adaptation. We, therefore, measured the fitness of thousands of mutations within a region of rpoB under multiple conditions and genetic backgrounds, to find that adaptive mutations cluster in two modules. Mutations in one module favor growth over maintenance through a partial loss of an interaction associated with faster elongation. Mutations in the other favor maintenance over growth through a destabilized RNAP-DNA complex. The two molecular handles capture the versatile RNAP-mediated adaptations. Combining both interaction losses simultaneously improved maintenance and growth, challenging the idea that growth-maintenance tradeoff resorts only from limited resources, and revealing how compensatory evolution operates within RNAP.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗