Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “triggering mechanism”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

On the prediction of critical heat flux using a physics-informed machine learning-aided framework

The critical heat flux (CHF) corresponding to the departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) crisis is essential to the design and safety of a two-phase flow boiling system. Despite the abundance of predictive tools available to the thermal engineering community, the path for an accurate, robust CHF model remains elusive due to lack of consensus on the DNB triggering mechanism. This work aims to apply a physics-informed machine learning (ML)-aided hybrid framework to achieve superior predictive capabilities. Such a hybrid approach takes advantage of existing understanding in the field of interest (i.e., domain knowledge) and uses ML to capture undiscovered information from the mismatch between the actual and domain knowledge-predicted target. A detailed case study is carried out with an extensive DNB-specific CHF database to demonstrate (1) the improved performance of the hybrid approach as compared to traditional domain knowledge-based models, and (2) the hybrid model’s superior generalization capabilities over standalone ML methods across a wide range of flow conditions. The hybrid framework could also readily extend its applicability domain and complexity on the fly, showing an elevated level of flexibility and robustness. Based on the case study conclusions, the window-type extrapolation mapping methodology is further proposed to better inform high-cost experimental work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Seismic tomography of compressional wave velocity and attenuation structure for Makushin Volcano, Alaska

Located in the central portion of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone, Makushin Volcano is among the most active volcanoes in the United States and has been classified as a very high threat by the National Volcano Early Warning System based on its eruptive history and proximity to the City of Unalaska and international air routes. In 2015, five standalone seismic stations and three mini seismic arrays of 15 stations each were deployed on Unalaska Island to supplement the Alaska Volcano Observatory permanent seismic network. This temporary array was operational for one year. Taking advantage of the increased azimuthal coverage and the array's increased earthquake detection capability, we developed body-wave Vp and Vp/Vs seismic images of the velocity structure beneath the volcano. Our results show a complex structure with the upper 4 km of the crust. The shallow high-Vp features possibly delineate remnant magma pathways or conduits. Low-Vp regions are found east of the caldera at approximately 4–8 km depth. This is in agreement with previous seismic tomographic work and InSAR-based geodetic models, which had identified this region as a possible long-term source of magma. A three-dimensional compressional wave attenuation model complemented the velocity models. In general, we observe regions of corresponding low P-wave velocity and high attenuation east of the summit caldera between 5 and 7 km depth, supporting the presence of a melt-rich zone. The absolute Vp values (5.5–6.0 km/s) in this region are consistent with the presence of a magma body with a mafic signature. Here, we suggest that a triggering mechanism that involves mafic injections into a more evolved shallow magma chamber is representative of the current magmatic system below the volcano, similarly to what petrological studies have inferred for past eruptions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ultrafast Yttrium Hydride Chemistry at High Pressures via Non-equilibrium States Induced by an X-ray Free Electron Laser

Controlling the formation and stoichiometric content of the desired phases of materials has become of central interest for a variety of fields. The possibility of accessing metastable states by initiating reactions by X-ray-triggered mechanisms over ultrashort time scales has been enabled by the development of X-ray free electron lasers (XFELs). Utilizing the exceptionally high-brilliance X-ray pulses from the EuXFEL, we report the synthesis of a previously unobserved yttrium hydride under high pressure, along with nonstoichiometric changes in hydrogen content as probed at a repetition rate of 4.5 MHz using time-resolved X-ray diffraction. Furthermore, exploiting non-equilibrium pathways, we synthesize and characterize a hydride in a Weaire–Phelan structure type at pressures as low as 125 GPa, predicted using a crystal structure search, with a hydrogen content of 4.0–5.75 hydrogens per cation, that is enthalpically metastable on the convex hull.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Preliminary Analysis of Source Physics Experiment Explosion-Triggered Microseismicity Using the Back-Projection Method

A series of four chemical explosions were detonated in a deep borehole within the Yucca Flat Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) at the Nevada National Security Site between 2018 and 2019. The two larger chemical explosions of 50 tons (DAG-2) and 10 tons (DAG-4) TNT equivalent yield triggered energetic aftershock sequences numbering 1392 and 347 microearthquakes, respectively, within the first 10 days. No significant aftershock activity was observed for the two smaller 1-ton explosions (DAG-1 and DAG-3). Here, we used a back-projection method based on travel-time migration and stacking of signal-to-noise ratio traces to detect, associate and locate aftershocks from a subset of 22-geophones within a larger 2 urn:x-wiley:21699313:media:jgrb54910:jgrb54910-math-0001 2 km seismic array surrounding the borehole. The aftershocks located within 300 m of the borehole and the depths were above the working points of 300 and 50 m depths of DAG-2 and DAG-4, respectively, ruling out triggering slip on geologic faults or disturbances beneath neighboring collapse craters. DAG-2 and DAG-4 aftershocks decayed at similar rates, with power-law exponents of p = 1.48 and p = 1.49, respectively. These decay rates are comparable to aftershocks sequences triggered by earthquakes and historical nuclear explosions at Yucca Flat. A smooth power-law aftershock decay within the first 10 days suggests a triggering mechanism from explosion generated stress relaxation due to the diffusion of high gas pressures in the cavity and radial fractures. A more random and episodic aftershock rate would be expected due to cavity collapse or falling rubble in chimney formation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Meteorological environments associated with California wildfires and their potential roles in wildfire changes during 1984-2017

California has been seeing more wildfires in recent years, resulting in huge economic losses and threatening human health. Clarifying the meteorological environments of wildfires is foundational to improving the understanding and prediction of wildfires and their impacts. Here, 1535 California wildfires during 1984-2017 are systematically investigated. Based on two key meteorological factors - temperature and moisture anomalies - all wildfires are classified into four groups: hot-dry, hot-wet, cold-dry, cold-wet. Most (~60%) wildfires occurred on hot-dry days. Compositing the large-scale environments of the four groups shows that persistent high pressure and strong northeasterly wind descending from inland favor hot-dry conditions for wildfires. This analysis also reveals an important role of anomalies in southerly onshore flow that supports stronger convection, accompanied by more lightning flashes that provide a triggering mechanism for wildfires under hot-wet conditions. Self-organizing map analysis lends confidence in the large-scale meteorological pattern for dominating hot-dry wildfires in California. Besides wildfire occurrence, wildfire size is also influenced by meteorological anomalies through their magnitudes. Among them, moisture anomaly explains the largest fraction (~69%) of variability in wildfire sizes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies are found to play an important role in the devastating 2018 wildfire season in California. During 1984-2017, wildfire burned area has significantly increased by ~3.6% per year, indicating a doubling of burned area in 2017 relative to 1984, with the trend dominated by hot-dry wildfires in summer. Drying and warming in conjunction with strengthening of the high pressure in summer support more frequent and larger wildfires in California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Emergence of Unstable Focused Flow Induced by Variable‐Density Flows in Vertical Fractures

Abstract Fluids with different densities often coexist in subsurface fractures and lead to variable‐density flows that control subsurface processes such as seawater intrusion, contaminant transport, and geologic carbon sequestration. In nature, fractures have dip angles relative to gravity, and density effects are maximized in vertical fractures. However, most studies on flow and transport through fractures are often limited to horizontal fractures. Here, we study the mixing and transport of variable‐density fluids in vertical fractures by combining three‐dimensional (3D) pore‐scale numerical simulations and visual laboratory experiments. Two miscible fluids with different densities are injected through two inlets at the bottom of a fracture and exit from an outlet at the top of the fracture. Laboratory experiments show the emergence of an unstable focused flow path, which we term a “runlet.” We successfully reproduce the unstable runlet using 3D numerical simulations and elucidate the underlying mechanisms triggering the runlet. Dimensionless number analysis shows that the runlet instability arises due to the Rayleigh‐Taylor instability (RTI), and flow topology analysis is applied to identify 3D vortices that are caused by the RTI. Even under laminar flow regimes, fluid inertia is shown to control the runlet instability by affecting the size and movement of vortices. Finally, we confirm the emergence of a runlet in rough‐walled fractures. Since a runlet dramatically affects fluid distribution, residence time, and mixing, the findings in this study have direct implications for the management of groundwater resources and subsurface applications.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Sequential Fracture Activation and Stress Evolution During EGS Stimulation at Utah FORGE Revealed by Waveform Cross‐Correlation

Mapping fracture networks in Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) is essential for optimizing reservoir performance, yet complex fracture evolution during stimulation remains difficult to resolve. This study examines the evolution of microseismicity and fracture networks during stage 3 of the 2022 EGS stimulation at the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy site. We map the fracture network represented by 20 clusters of seismic events identified by waveform similarities with cross-correlation. We characterize their geometric properties such as strike, dip, length, and width, and analyze the time evolution of activated fractures. The results reveal a systematic fracture evolution: early activation of pre-existing natural fractures, complex network development during peak injection, and continued activation of less favorably oriented fractures post-injection. Magnitude calibration using the Principal Component Analysis of cross-correlated waveforms improves relative amplitude measurements, refining estimations of the Gutenberg-Richter b-values with spatial variations in b-values suggesting stress re-distribution across the stimulated area. Analysis of the stress state of selected fractures further shows that fractures requiring higher excess pore pressure primarily activate at the end of injection and post-injection, highlighting stress transfer due to pore pressure as a dominant triggering mechanism. These findings provide insights into fracture propagation, stress evolution, and seismic hazard assessment in EGS reservoirs.

Asirifi, Richard [Texas A & M Univ., College Stati↗

Bio-inspired multiscale design for perovskite solar cells

Metal halide perovskite semiconductors have attractive light-harvesting and charge-carrier transport properties for photovoltaics. Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) and modules have demonstrated their commercial promise with high power conversion efficiencies, but still face stability challenges. In this Review, we explore how biomaterials offer design inspiration for the development of durable and efficient PSCs at three different scales. At the molecular level, bio-inspired molecular interactions are harnessed towards crystallization control and degradation prevention, which offers an enhancement in long-term maximum-power-point tracking stability. At the microstructural level, self-healing and strength-enhancing strategies, utilizing dynamic bonds and interfacial reinforcement, can help PSCs to recover from physical damage and maintain high performance. At the device level, macroscopic functionalities, such as moth-eye-inspired structures tailored to different layers, can collectively enable antireflection, radiative cooling and self-cleaning to optimize light management, heat dissipation and encapsulation in PSCs. Bio-inspired PSC research can combine improved efficiency and lifetime, with abundant, biocompatible alternatives to conventional stabilizers. Future efforts should focus on screening bioinspired molecules to optimize film crystallization and stability, developing self-healing mechanisms triggered by operational stress, designing cost-efficient biomicrostructures, and integrating multifunctional encapsulation to enhance the efficiency and lifespan of PSCs.

Duan, Tianwei↗

Improved internal short circuit models for thermal runaway simulations in lithium-ion batteries

Thermal runaway (TR) modeling is one of the primary tools that can be used to overcome challenges associated with lithium-ion battery (LIB) safety. Among all LIB accidents that have occurred over the past decade, Internal Short Circuit (ISC) remains the most common trigger mechanism. Many available models in the literature either use a simplified approach to simulate ISC or completely ignore its contribution. The aim of this study is to understand the nature of the heat released for different types of ISC scenarios, including aluminum-anode, anode–cathode, and copper-cathode ISC. We study ISC behavior using a coupled electrochemical–thermal model with an integrated TR chemical kinetics solver built in the COMSOL Multiphysics framework. The time duration of heat release and the magnitude of the peak ISC current are studied as functions of parameters such as the size of the penetrating filament and the capacity of the cell. The numerical results are used to build an empirical model validated against the published experimental TR propagation data. Our model can be successfully used as a viable low-cost substitute in lower order (lumped) TR simulations to enable TR prevention and mitigation.

Singh, Bakhshish Preet (ORCID:0000000264751992)↗

I-mode pedestal relaxation events in the Alcator C-Mod and ASDEX Upgrade tokamaks

Abstract In some conditions, I-mode plasmas can feature pedestal relaxation events (PREs) that transiently enhance the energy reaching the divertor target plates. To shed light on their appearance, characteristics and energy reaching the divertor targets, a comparative study between two tokamaks — Alcator C-Mod and ASDEX Upgrade — is carried out. It is found that PREs appear only in a subset of I-mode discharges, mainly when the plasma is close to the H-mode transition. Also, a growing oscillating precursor before the PRE onset is observed in the region close to the separatrix in both devices, and a discussion on a possible triggering mechanism is outlined. The PRE relative energy loss from the confined region is found to increase with decreasing pedestal top collisionality ν ped * . Similarly, also the relative electron temperature drop at the pedestal top, which is related to the conductive energy loss, rises with decreasing ν ped * . Based on these relations, the PRE relative energy loss in future devices such as DEMO and ARC is estimated. Finally, the divertor peak energy fluence due to the PRE is measured on each device. Those values are then compared to the model introduced in Eich et al (2017 Nucl. Mater. Energy 12 84–90) for type-I edge localized modes. The model is shown to provide an upper boundary for PRE energy fluence data, while a lower boundary is found by dividing the model by three. These two boundaries are used to make projections of the PRE divertor energy fluence to DEMO and ARC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

En echelon faults reactivated by wastewater disposal near Musreau Lake, Alberta

We use machine-learning and cross-correlation techniques to enhance earthquake detectability by two magnitude units for the earthquake sequence near Musreau Lake, Alberta, which is induced by wastewater disposal. This deep catalogue reveals a series of en echelon ~N–S oriented strike-slip faults that are favourably oriented for reactivation. These faults require only ~0.6 MPa overpressure for triggering to occur. Earthquake activity occurs in bursts, or episodes; episodes restricted to the largest fault tend to have earthquakes starting near the southern end (distant from injectors) and progressing northwards (towards the injectors). While most events are concentrated along these ~N–S oriented faults, we also delineate smaller faults. Together, these findings suggest pore pressure as the triggering mechanism, where a time-dependent increase in pore pressure likely caused these faults to progressively reawaken. Analysis of the ‘next record-breaking event’, a statistical model that forecasts the sequencing of earthquake magnitudes, suggests that the next largest event would be M L ~4.3. The seismically illuminated length of the largest fault indicates potential magnitudes as large as M w 5.3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

AGNs in post-mergers from the ultraviolet near infrared optical northern survey

The kinematic disturbances associated with major galaxy mergers are known to produce gas inflows, which in turn may trigger accretion onto the supermassive black holes (SMBH) of the participant galaxies. While this effect has been studied in galaxy pairs, the frequency of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in fully coalesced post-merger systems is poorly constrained due to the limited size or impurity of extant post-merger samples. Previously, we combined convolutional neural network (CNN) predictions with visual classifications to identify a highly pure sample of 699 post-mergers in deep r-band imaging. In the work presented here, we quantify the frequency of AGNs in this sample using three metrics: optical emission lines, mid-infrared (mid-IR) colour, and radio detection of low-excitation radio galaxies (LERGs). We also compare the frequency of AGNs in post-mergers to that in a sample of spectroscopically identified galaxy pairs. We find that AGNs identified by narrow-line optical emission and mid-IR colour have an increased incidence rate in post-mergers, with excesses of ~4 over mass- and redshift-matched controls. The optical and mid-IR AGN excesses in post-mergers exceed the values found for galaxy pairs, indicating that AGN activity in mergers peaks after coalescence. Conversely, we recover no significant excess of LERGs in post-mergers or pairs. Finally, we find that the [O III ] luminosity (a proxy for SMBH accretion rate) in post-mergers that host an optical AGN is ~0.3 dex higher on average than in non-interacting galaxies with an optical AGN, suggesting that mergers generate higher accretion rates than secular triggering mechanisms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS, GUIDANCE, AND REVIEW OF EMBEDDED DIGITAL DEVICES IN SAFETY SYSTEMS

Interest in embedded digital devices (EDDs) for monitoring and providing control of components is increasing in the nuclear power market as more and more users both within and outside the nuclear sector are employing EDDs. EDDs in other industries or countries may be known by the related terms as smart devices, devices of limited functionality, or intelligent devices. EDDs can sometimes perform a safety role when embedded in components such as temperature transmitters, pressure transmitters, voltage regulators, gas analyzers, boiler controllers, relays, and radiation monitors. The introduction of EDDs can affect safety by creating new hazards, vulnerabilities, failure modes, triggering mechanisms, and other potential safety concerns at both the component and system levels. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) existing regulations and guidance cover the use of EDDs in safety-related and important to safety systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs). In addition to potential future challenges, the nature of EDDs being implemented in similar or identical manners between different plants and industries opens up the potential of leveraging the reviews of other regulators or utilization of industry certifications.Key words: embedded digital device, firmware

Halverson, D. S.↗

Star Formation Rates for Elliptical Galaxies Derived from the Wise 12- and 22-µm Emission

We investigated the star formation rates (SFRs) of selected elliptical galaxies using the infrared data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). The elliptical galaxies were selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) MPA-JHU catalog and morphology classified by Galaxy Zoo catalog. We used the 3.4-µm emission (W1) of WISE to represent the stellar mass of the galaxies and the 12- and 22-µm emission (W3 and W4) of WISE to represent the star formation activity of the galaxies. The W3- and W4-based star formation rates are usually overestimated due to the star emission in low star-forming galaxies. Stellar continuum emission could contribute to MIR fluxes of elliptical galaxies with an average overestimation of ~ 13.95 and ~ 0.77% from the observed fluxes of WISE W3 and W4-bands, which determined by using the estimated WISE W3 and W4 flux correction factors. Better SFRs can be obtained by subtracting the stellar contribution of the sources. Our result highlights the possibility of the existence of unknown mechanisms triggering the continuous star formation activities in elliptical galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Geomechanical in situ testing of fault reactivation in argillite repositories

Abstract. Pressurization of natural faults as a result of repository-induced effects can lead to their reactivation and permeability generation in case such features are present near disposal tunnels. Potential driving forces for such pressurization are the temperature increase caused by heat-producing high-level radioactive waste and the generation of hydrogen and other gases due to corrosion of engineered materials. We are primarily concerned about pressurization and fault activation in host rocks and faults that have very low natural permeability for pore pressure increases to dissipate, such as the argillite rocks currently investigated in Switzerland, France and other countries. This presentation discusses a series of in situ experiments of fault activation by fluid injection conducted in the argillite rock (Opalinus clay) at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory in Switzerland. A multi-model monitoring test bed was installed at Mont Terri that includes distributed fiber optics for strain, temperature, and acoustics; local fault pore pressure and three-dimensional displacement sensors; active seismic imaging; and passive seismic monitoring. The fault experiments (and their subsequent analysis via hydromechanical modeling) provide a new fundamental understanding of the coupling between pore pressure, fault deformation and permeability generation as a function of time and allow exploring how seismic and aseismic events may impact the integrity of faulted argillite host rock. Our experimental observations demonstrate that significant flow (and transport) can occur along the initially impermeable argillite fault when rupture is activated. However, the fault permeability decreases to almost its pre-activation value when fluid injection ceases and fluid pressure drops. Dilatant slip on the fault plane alone does not explain the observed increase in fault permeability; pressure-induced fault opening also plays a role, favored by the softness of the shale along with the fact that the structure of the fault zone prevents fluids from diffusing into the adjacent damage zone. Rupture initiation and permeability generation is initially aseismic, associated only with an increase in noise level and emerging tremors. Micro-earthquakes are initiated later in the experiments and typically occur away from the fluid-pressurized area. Hydromechanical models show that stress transferred from the initial aseismic deformation can build up to stress criticality and later induce seismic rupture. After presenting the experimental results, we will close the presentation with an outlook to future experimental campaigns using the fault test bed at Mont Terri. We are currently planning a controlled thermal stimulation of the fault, where instead of fluid injection as a trigger mechanism we will heat up the nearby rock volume and measure potential effects on fault stability. Lessons learned from our past and future experiments will help inform the safety assessment of geologic disposal in argillite host rock.

Birkholzer, Jens T.↗

Deciphering the Mechanism of Base-Triggered Conversion of Ammonia to Molecular Nitrogen and Methylamine to Cyanide

Here we report an in-depth investigation into the ammonia oxidation mechanism by the catalyst [Ru III (tpy)(dmabpy)NH 3 ] 3 + ([Ru(NH 3 )] 3 + ). Stoichiometric reactions of [Ru(NH 3 )] 3 + were carried out with exogenous noncoordinating bases to trigger a proposed redox disproportionation reaction, which was followed using variable-temperature NMR spectroscopy. An intermediate species was identified as a dinitrogen-bridged complex using 15 N NMR and Raman spectroscopy on isotopically labeled complexes. This intermediate is proposed to derive from coupling of nitridyl species formed upon sequential redox disproportion reactions. Acetonitrile displaces the dinitrogen bridge to yield free N 2 . DFT calculations support this lower-energy pathway versus that previously reported for ammonia oxidation by the parent [Ru III (tpy)(bpy)NH 3 ] 3 + complex. These experimental and computational results are consistent with the interpretation of redox disproportionation involving sequential hydrogen atom transfer reactions by an amide/aminyl intermediate, [Ru(NH 2 ) – ] + $\Leftrightarrow$ [Ru(NH 2 ) • ] + , formed upon deprotonation of the parent complex. Control experiments employing a large excess of ammonia as a base indicate this new proposed lower-energy pathway contributes to the oxidation of ammonia to dinitrogen in conditions relevant to electrocatalysis. In addition, analogous methylamine complexes, [Ru(NH 2 CH 3 )] 2 + /3 + , were prepared to further test the proposed mechanism. Treating [Ru(NH 2 CH 3 )] 3 + with a base cleanly yields two products [Ru(NH 2 CH 3 )] 2 + and [Ru(CN)] + in an ~3:1 ratio, fully consistent with the proposed cascade of hydrogen atom transfer reactions by an intermediate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Analytical population dynamics underlying harmful algal blooms triggered by prey avoidance

A modified version of the NPZD ecosystem model is used to analytically examine the effects of predation avoidance, a possible mechanism for triggering harmful algal blooms (HAB). To resolve HAB development caused by predation avoidance, an additional phytoplankton functional group is considered, one that has slower nutrient uptake and better predation avoidance characteristics than the non-harmful phytoplankton group used in traditional NPZD models. Because the two phytoplankton groups (one non-harmful and one HAB) compete for only one resource within the same system, steady state (equilibrium) conditions cannot occur without the presence of zooplankton; only the non-harmful phytoplankton group, which defeats the HAB group in the resource competition, can survive in the equilibrium. The presence of sufficient zooplankton effectively acts to replenish the nutrient pool by consuming the non-harmful phytoplankton. When this occurs, two equilibrium states are found: one with both phytoplankton groups coexisting, and one that only includes the HAB group. Further, the condition required for equilibrium is that the total nitrogen within the system should be larger than a threshold determined by model coefficients. The threshold and feasibility of the equilibrium are sensitive to the relative HAB predation avoidance coefficient. If the coefficient is larger than the ratio of net growth rates between the HAB and non-harmful phytoplankton group, the threshold becomes infinite, and an equilibrium is not feasible. The time scale for the system to reach an equilibrium state that includes a HAB group is determined asymptotically. The dependence of a threshold condition as a controlling factor may explain the regime shift of dominant species causing HABs. The ecosystem model is fully implemented into the Regional Ocean Modeling System and applied to an idealized coastal embayment (with depths and geometry taken from San Francisco Bay) to show numerically the dominance of prey avoidance dynamics in a natural shallow water environment that includes advection and diffusion. The analytical results improve strategies for HAB modeling and provide guidance for setting model coefficients necessary to resolve a HAB event.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Constraining maximum event magnitude during injection-triggered seismicity

Abstract Understanding mechanisms controlling fluid injection-triggered seismicity is key in defining strategies to ameliorate it. Recent triggered events (e.g. Pohang, Mw 5.5) have exceeded predictions of average energy release by a factor of >1000x, necessitating robust methodologies to both define critical antecedent conditions and to thereby constrain anticipated event size. We define maximum event magnitudes resulting from triggering as a function of pre-existing critical stresses and fluid injection volume. Fluid injection experiments on prestressed laboratory faults confirm these estimates of triggered moment magnitudes for varied boundary conditions and injection rates. In addition, observed ratios of shear slip to dilation rates on individual faults signal triggering and may serve as a measurable proxy for impending rupture. This new framework provides a robust method of constraining maximum event size for preloaded faults and unifies prior laboratory and field observations that span sixteen decades in injection volume and four decades in length scale.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗