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DOE OSTI2026

Estimating Flexibility Envelopes for Residential Customers From Utility Smart Meter Data: Preprint

Demand response from residential customers has significant potential to support power system operations, but accurate flexibility estimation is challenging due to the limited resolution of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data. Most utility AMI measurements are recorded at hourly intervals, with only a small portion at higher resolutions, and even fewer households have appliance-level energy usage data. To address this issue, this paper proposes a two-stage long short-term memory (LSTM) framework for estimating household flexibility envelopes from low-resolution AMI data. In the first stage, the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load and non-HVAC loads are estimated by using a model trained on a small set of households with appliance-level profiles. These estimated data are then used to compute the upper- and lower-flexibility bounds, which are subsequently down-sampled to lower-resolution data. In the second stage, these flexibility bounds serve as training inputs for another LSTM model, enabling direct prediction of flexibility envelopes for households with only hourly AMI data. This method is validated using Pecan Street data from two different areas, and the results demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

A DATA EFFICIENT SPARSE MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR POWER ESTIMATION IN WATER TREATMENT SENSING OPERATIONS

With increasing freshwater scarcity, advanced process design mechanisms such as Closed-Circuit Reverse Osmosis (CCRO) and Digital/Physical Twin systems are gaining traction in water treatment and reuse operations. While digital and physical twin models enable improved system insight and control, their development is often expensive and computationally intensive, requiring large volumes of synthetic or experimental data to characterize underlying process dynamics. This work introduces a sparse surrogate modeling framework to estimate power consumption from measured flow and pressure variables, along with their nonlinear polynomial and interaction expansions. To ensure model reliability and reduce overfitting, a two-stage pipeline is proposed. First, a dynamic data filtering algorithm is employed to remove uninformative observations and transient operational states. Second, a sparse penalized regression technique is applied to select a minimal set of parsimonious features. The proposed model achieves high sparsity, retaining only 7 out of 34 candidate features (≈79.41% sparsity) while delivering a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.072 on the test dataset.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-driven predictive resource management in complex science workflows

Here, the collaborative efforts of large communities in science experiments, often comprising thousands of global members, reflect a monumental commitment to exploration and discovery. Recently, advanced and complex data processing has gained increasing importance in science experiments. Data processing workflows typically consist of multiple intricate steps, and the precise specification of resource requirements is crucial for each step to allocate optimal resources for effective processing. Estimating resource requirements in advance is challenging due to a wide range of analysis scenarios, varying skill levels among community members, and the continuously increasing spectrum of computing options. One practical approach to mitigate these challenges involves initially processing a subset of each step to measure precise resource utilization from actual processing profiles before completing the entire step. While this two-staged approach enables processing on optimal resources for most of the workflow, it has drawbacks such as initial inaccuracies leading to potential failures and suboptimal resource usage, along with overhead from waiting for initial processing completion, which is critical for fast-turnaround analyses. In this context, our study introduces a novel pipeline of machine learning models within a comprehensive workflow management system, the Production and Distributed Analysis (PanDA) system. These models employ advanced machine learning techniques to predict key resource requirements, overcoming challenges posed by limited upfront knowledge of characteristics at each step. Accurate forecasts of resource requirements enable informed and proactive decision-making in workflow management, enhancing the efficiency of handling diverse, complex workflows across heterogeneous resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Inlet Guide Vane Performance for Discharge Compressor Operation near the Dome of an sCO 2 Pumped Heat Energy Storage

Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) developed and tested a Variable Inlet Guide Vane (IGV herein) assembly on an integrally-geared sCO 2 compressor (IGC) to demonstrate compressor operation at both the compressor design point and near the dome and to define the operating limits of the compressor by monitoring for two-phase flow, flow turbulence from the IGVs, and compressor choke and surge as the CO 2 inlet temperature is varied. Performance testing was conducted on an existing integrally-geared, two-stage main compressor designed for near-critical-point operation with CO 2 . This testing campaign validated the IGV design and operation, as well as improved the understanding and confidence in operating compressors and predicting performance characteristics near the critical point where fluid properties change rapidly with temperature. In addition to improving the robust operating limits of an sCO 2 compressor, the development of an IGV for the IGC system improved off-design compressor efficiency by 12%.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic Transmission Line Switching Amid Wildfire-Prone Weather Under Decision-Dependent Uncertainty

During dry and windy seasons, environmental conditions significantly increase the risk of wildfires, exposing power grids to disruptions caused by transmission line failures. Wildfire propagation exacerbates grid vulnerability, potentially leading to prolonged power outages. To address this challenge, we propose a multistage optimization model that dynamically adjusts transmission grid topology in response to wildfire propagation, aiming to develop an optimal response policy. By accounting for decision-dependent uncertainty, where line survival probabilities depend on usage, we employ distributionally robust optimization to model uncertainty in line survival distributions. We adapt the stochastic nested decomposition algorithm and derive a deterministic upper bound for its finite convergence. To enhance computational efficiency, we exploit the Lagrangian dual problem structure for a faster generation of Lagrangian cuts. Using realistic data from the California transmission grid, we demonstrate the superior performance of dynamic response policies against two-stage alternatives through a comprehensive case study. In addition, after solving the multistage formulation, we construct easy-to-implement policies that significantly reduce computational burden while maintaining good performance in real-time deployment. History: Accepted by Russell Bent, Area Editor for Network Optimization: Algorithms and Applications. Funding: This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity [Grant DE-AC02-05CH11231]. The work of R. Jiang was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Division of Electrical, Communications and Cyber Systems [Grant ECCS-1845980] and the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research [Grant FA9550-23-1-0323]. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2025.1210 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2025.1210 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

Estrada-Garcia, Juan-Alberto↗

DOE OSTI2026

Numerical Modeling of a Two-Stage Ocean Current Turbine

The Equinox Ocean Turbines (EQOT) current energy converter has a unique design with power generation in two small-diameter turbines attached to the tips of a large-diameter passive rotor. This configuration offers some key advantages for capturing ocean currents. With no centrally placed generator, almost no reaction torque is required at the nacelle of the main large-diameter rotor, and the small-diameter tip turbine generators operate at a higher speed and lower torque. The physics that determine the performance and loads on the turbine are also unique. The interactions of the flow field between the two stages and the general architecture of the system cannot be captured with traditional mid-fidelity modeling tools. For design iterations and large sets of load cases, it is important to have mid-fidelity models that can capture the important phenomenon with enough accuracy to identify global trends. This work uses a limited set of high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to help inform the selection of and construction of a custom mid-fidelity model. Mid-fidelity modeling approaches were verified by comparing key turbine performance quantities to those found with the CFD model. Hydrodynamic interactions of the two-stage rotor were identified through high-fidelity CFD modeling. This highlighted the impact of the main rotor tip vortex and wake on the secondary rotor apparent inflow. This results in a relative flow rotation and sharp deficit, that change the optimal secondary rotor rotation speed and adds unsteadiness to the blade loading respectively. Multiple mid-fidelity approaches were evaluated for their ability to capture these effects. A simple approximation of the combined-stage performance based on single-stage BEM provides a reasonable rough prediction, especially near the peak TSR values, with some larger discrepancy at higher TSRs. Predicting the combined-stage performance based on single-stage CFD data improves this prediction across the TSR range. Although the combined-stage modeling in OLAF was not successful in this stage of the project, it showed promise as a mid-fidelity method, assuming the parameters can be tuned to account for the significant differences in time and length scales between the main and secondary rotors. This may be addressed through code changes in future work. A significant finding from the OLAF work was the agreement between the vortex core radius values found independently via a parameter space search and via CFD. The technique of using single-stage secondary rotor BEM, with a custom inflow taken from single-stage main rotor CFD or OLAF, provides an efficient method to capture one-way coupled flow interactions. This method provided generally good predictions of the impact of the flow rotation on the secondary rotor but struggled to accurately predict the peaks of the unsteady load progression. Future work could include some superposition of a tuned main rotor trailing edge viscous wake into the custom inflow to better predict this interaction.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2026

Refractory-based thermal energy storage for industrial process heat: one-dimensional modeling, control, and optimization

The variable and weather-dependent output of wind and solar power plants present a substantial challenge for planning and operating electricity-systems, particularly in the absence of cost-effective and dispatchable energy storage technologies. This study investigates a high-temperature, electrically heated, refractory-based thermal energy storage (RTES) system that stores electrical energy as sensible heat in dense ceramic bricks over the 950–1800 °C range. The stored heat can be discharged as a controlled hot-gas stream for industrial heating, fuel substitution in high-temperature processes, or electricity generation. The main novelty is a comprehensive modelling, control, mapping, and optimization framework that integrates one-dimensional transient gas–solid heat transfer, fan-assisted discharge, bypass-flow regulation, reheating logic, fan-power evaluation, insulation-loss assessment, and genetic-algorithm-based design optimization. The model uses feedback from outlet temperature and delivered power to regulate discharge, while a two-stage genetic algorithm optimizes brick-channel geometry, gas-flow operation, and multilayer insulation thicknesses. Storage capacities below 50 MWh and discharge powers of 5–30 MW are analyzed to evaluate hold time, thermal delivery, fan-power penalty, heat loss, state-of-charge evolution, and indicative capital cost. Results demonstrate that optimized and well-insulated refractory-based thermal energy storage units can provide stable, efficient, and repeatable heat delivery over multiple discharge cycles. The generated performance and cost maps support modular refractory thermal energy storage as a practical option for large-scale integration of wind and solar generation and for high-temperature industrial process heat.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cooling Design and Thermal Analysis for Thermal Shields of a Cryocooler-Cooled Superconducting ECR Ion Source MARS-D Magnet

Here, a demonstrative NbTi based Mixed Axial and Radial field System (MARS-D) is being developed for a next-Generation Electron Cyclotron Resonance Ion Source (ECRIS) at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBL), which employs a novel closed-loop coil design scheme that more efficiently utilizes conductor fields and extend the application of NbTi for high frequency (up to 45 GHz) ECR operation. The NbTi MARS-D magnet consists of a single hexagonally shaped closed-loop coil and a set of auxiliary solenoids. A cryostat for cooling the MARS-D magnet is under design at LBL. The MARS-D magnet working around 4.2 K will be bath-cooled in liquid helium using multiple two-stage cryocoolers. An intermediate temperature thermal radiation shield is adopted to reduce the heat leakage imposed on 4.2 K coil cold mass from room temperature. The thermal shield is conduction-cooled by the first-stage cold heads of four two-stage cryocoolers and the cold head of a single-stage cryocooler shared with nine binary leads. The temperature in the area of the shield that warm ends of HTS leads are mounted on is expected no higher than 60 K, which is limited by maximum allowable working temperature of HTS leads. The paper presents thermal analysis on the thermal radiation shield including heat loads and effects of eddy current induced during quench on its material selection.

ECRIS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model-based iterative reconstruction with adaptive regularization for artifact reduction in electron tomography

Obtaining high-quality 3D reconstructions from electron tomography of crystalline particles embedded in lighter support elements is crucial for various material systems such as catalysts for fuel cell applications. However, significant challenges arise due to the limited tilt range, sparse and low signal-to-noise ratio of the measurements. In addition, small metal particles can cause strong streaking and shading artifacts in the 3D reconstructions when using conventional reconstruction algorithms due to the presence of Bragg diffraction and the large scattering cross-section difference between the materials of the particles and the background support regions. These artifacts lead to errors in the downstream characterization affecting extraction of critical features such as the size of the metal particles, their distribution and the volume of the lighter support regions. In this paper, we present a two-stage algorithm based on metal artifact reduction, utilizing model-based iterative reconstruction methods with adaptive adjustment of regularization parameters. Our approach yields high-quality 3D reconstructions compared to traditional algorithms, accurately capturing both the metal particles as well as the background support. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm through simulated and experimental bright-field electron tomography data, showing significant improvements in reconstruction quality compared to traditional methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Conduction-Cooled Operation of an SRF Multi-Cell Cavity

The development of compact, SRF-based accelerators for applications beyond research is experiencing notable advancements due to the use of cryocoolers for conduction-cooling instead of traditional liquid cryogens. Following the successful demonstration of a single-cell cavity operated through conduction cooling with three two-stage cryocoolers, Jefferson Lab (JLab) has made strides in the operation of a multi-cell resonator. This milestone paves the way for high-energy applications of compact, conduction-cooled SRF machines. The demonstration, carried out in collaboration with General Atomics, will take place in a dedicated horizontal test cryostat (HTC) at their San Diego facility. This presentation will highlight the technological developments, the latest results, and valuable lessons learned.

Vennekate, J. [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerat↗

DOE OSTI2025

Conduction-Cooled Operation of an SRF Multi-Cell Cavity

Vennekate, J. [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerat↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimized Illuminance Operation-A Light-Driven Dilution Strategy to Improve Microalgae Biomass Productivity

Periodic dilution is a necessary operation to avoid light limitation due to self-shading as the culture grows dense. However, environmental conditions are constantly changing in outdoor cultivation systems, making it difficult to determine the optimal dilution rate. To address this challenge, this study evaluated a dilution approach based on light penetration to optimize illuminance (OptiLum) in the culture. Biomass concentration was controlled via sensor-feedback directed dilution to ensure that light reaching the bottom of the culture was maintained above the compensation intensity. Under replicated outdoor pond conditions, by keeping the entire culture within a net-positive photosynthetic zone, the OptiLum operation improved the biomass productivities of two top-performing strains, Picochlorum celeri and Tetraselmis striata, by 95 % and 86 %, respectively, compared to conventional semi-continuous batch cultivation. The dilution rate varied daily and was dynamically adjusted based on the light status within the culture, which is concurrently influenced by weather, culture density, and growth rate. The techno-economic analysis showed that the OptiLum operation could reduce biomass production cost by as much as 24 % and 33 % for P. celeri and T. striata, respectively, assuming a low-cost dewatering approach with initial gravity settling of biomass can be realized for both strains. However, a more costly two-stage dewatering strategy, comprising only membranes and centrifuges, may be necessary for non-settling strains, such as P. celeri, which would alternatively increase production costs by 23 % for the OptiLum case. The results demonstrated that the proposed OptiLum operation is a promising approach to improve biomass productivity and lower production cost via weather-responsive and self-adjusting dilution.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Extraction of lithium from battery recycling wastewater using synergistic D2EHPA and TBP

The recycling of spent lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) poses significant challenges, including the generation of large volumes of chemically complex wastewater. The composition of this wastewater is influenced by both the intrinsic chemistry of the batteries and the specific recycling processes employed. Notably, this wastewater contains economically valuable components, such as lithium, which can be recovered. Here, in this study, a solvent extraction (SX) process was investigated as a method to recover lithium from battery recycling wastewater, especially from anode-washing stage. Initially, various commercial extractants were evaluated, including di(2-ethylhexyl)phosphoric acid (D2EHPA), mono-2-ethylhexyl (2-ethylhexyl)phosphonate (PC88A), bis(2,4,4-trimethylpentyl)phosphinic acid (Cyanex 272), 2-hydroxy-5-nonylacetophenone oxime (LIX 84-I), tri-butyl phosphate (TBP), and their combinations. Among these, D2EHPA + TBP demonstrated a synergism to advance and maximize the lithium extraction. Subsequently, the effects of key parameters, including D2EHPA concentration, TBP concentration, contact time, initial pH, and aqueous-to-organic (A/O) phase ratio, were systematically investigated and optimized. A two-stage SX approach was employed to enhance lithium recovery. Under the optimized conditions of 30.0 vol% D2EHPA, 10.0 vol% TBP, 10 min of contact time, and a 1:1 A/O phase ratio, a lithium extraction efficiency of more than 88% in a two-stage solvent extraction was achieved. Lithium was subsequently stripped from the loaded organic solution using sulfuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ). Using 2.0 M H 2 SO 4 , lithium stripping was achieved after two counter-current stripping stages at an organic-to-aqueous (O/A) phase ratio of 6:1. This stripping process enriched the lithium concentration by a factor of four compared to the original lithium concentration in the anode-washing wastewater. The recyclability of the synergistic D2EHPA + TBP system was also evaluated over four extraction-stripping cycles. The results demonstrated that the system maintained high extraction and stripping efficiencies.

D2EHPA↗

DOE OSTI2026

A flexible and differentiable coil proxy for stellarator equilibrium optimization

Balancing plasma performance and coil cost is a significant challenge when designing a stellarator power plant. Most current stellarator designs are produced through two-stage optimization: stage-1 for the equilibrium and stage-2 for a coil design that reproduces its magnetic configuration. Because few proxies connect both stages, two-stage optimization can produce plasmas that have high-quality physical properties but overly complex coils. In recent years, single-stage optimization has increasingly been used to optimize the plasma and coils simultaneously in order to improve the plasma–coil balance. However, all existing single-stage tools are specialized for filament coils, cannot model coil systems containing permanent magnets or dipole arrays, and continue to be challenged by numerical problems. The quasi-single-stage optimization finds a middle ground by integrating a coil optimization subproblem into stage-1 optimization. We present a flexible, differentiable coil complexity proxy based on the newly developed QUADCOIL coil optimization code. QUADCOIL is fast and can target realistic coil metrics and constraints that are unavailable to codes with comparable speed. We demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of the QUADCOIL proxy by presenting two QSS optimization studies. The first study produces a permanent magnet solution for the MUSE stellarator with 34% fewer magnets than previous solutions. The second study produces a coil solution for the ARIES-CS stellarator with 30% reductions in both peak and root-mean-square force.

Fu, Lanke [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PP↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Two-Stage Current Limiting Control Strategy for Direct-Droop-Controlled Grid-Forming Inverters

This paper presents a two-stage current limiting control strategy with fault ride-through capability for the direct-droop-controlled grid-forming (GFM) inverters. The proposed approach comprises Stage 1 and Stage 2 current limiting controls. During faults, Stage 1 current limiting control instantly clamps the inverter output current magnitude to its maximum transient limit by blocking the switching pulses to the insulated-gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs) with the help of a hysteresis loop control, and Stage 2 current limiting control limits the inverter output current magnitude to its steady-state limit by regulating the amplitude and frequency of the modulating waveform utilizing the active and reactive current limiting control loops. By implementing the current limiting actions in two stages, this approach can effectively limit the over-current within a few cycles after the fault occurrence and ensure synchronism to the grid after long-term fault events. The efficacy of the proposed control approach is validated through electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation results conducted on a single GFM inverter-based test system and the IEEE 39-bus test system with multiple GFM inverters in the PSCAD platform.

Mohiuddin, Sheik Mohammad↗

DOE OSTI2025

Distributed Online Voltage Control in Distribution Network: A Two-Stage Real-Time Implementation

The increasing integration of renewable-based distributed generation (DG) brings growing challenges to distribution network (DN) voltage control. To address this issue, a two-stage distributed online voltage control framework (TDO-VC) is proposed in this paper. In the proposed method, legacy voltage control devices are controlled in the upper stage on an hourly timescale, while DGs operate autonomously online in the lower stage to remove instantaneous voltage violations. The idea of receding horizon control is applied in the upper stage to comprehensively consider the current and future renewable generation, and the generalized fast dual ascent (Gf-DA) is employed in the lower stage to effectively manage DGs through near real-time optimization. The effectiveness of the proposed TDO-VC is demonstrated by rigorous theoretical analysis and case studies on IEEE-123 bus system.

Distributed generation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Long-Term Impacts of Constrained Transmission Deployment on the Cost-Reliability Tradeoff

Traditional Resource Adequacy (RA) frameworks in the U.S. undervalue the contributions of inter-regional transmission to resource adequacy during stress periods, focusing on the availability of nameplate capacity instead. However, availability of nameplate capacity does not always translate into electricity delivery, especially during tail events. Moreover, the rapid deployment of energy-limited resources and increasing electricity demand challenge existing resource adequacy frameworks and couple regional electricity demand and availability of supply via transmission. We propose a two-stage framework that goes beyond the existing capacity-centered approaches to reveal the RA contributions of transmission. In the first stage we introduce a multi-objective optimization framework to quantify the merits of transmission expansion via Pareto Frontiers under alternative futures of no transmission investment, primary energy resources availability and demand growth. The second stage focuses on tail events and leverages the results of the first stage to characterize the risk profile of regional consumers across the U.S. under the alternative energy futures. We find that no new transmission can lead to a more expensive and less reliable national grid across scenarios, however, the impact on regional RA can vary. The probabilistic analysis reveals that transmission investments can alleviate the tail risk of consumers, however, the availability of fuel resources does not always alleviate regional tail risks. Our findings inform policymakers and utilities on the prioritization of transmission investments to mitigate the risk of widespread outages, also for tail events, and ensure reliable and affordable electricity delivery to all.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (4.4 COP, 30.9 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock (TM) is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP). This document provides the relevant new modeling information for variable-speed systems not previously covered in either the single-stage or two-stage documents. Variable-speed GHPs represent the most efficient option available for this technology: They provide the most savings, with up to 46% for the applicable portion of the housing stock, compared to 31% for less efficient single-stage GHPs. Additional results shown here detail how the savings change for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuels and in different climate zones, and they show the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗