Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “uncertainty quantification, nuclear fusion”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

24 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

EFIT-Prime: Probabilistic and physics-constrained reduced-order neural network model for equilibrium reconstruction in DIII-D

We introduce EFIT-Prime, a novel machine learning surrogate model for EFIT (Equilibrium FIT) that integrates probabilistic and physics-informed methodologies to overcome typical limitations associated with deterministic and ad hoc neural network architectures. EFIT-Prime utilizes a neural architecture search-based deep ensemble for robust uncertainty quantification, providing scalable and efficient neural architectures that comprehensively quantify both data and model uncertainties. Physically informed by the Grad–Shafranov equation, EFIT-Prime applies a constraint on the current density J tor and a smoothness constraint on the first derivative of the poloidal flux, ensuring physically plausible solutions. Furthermore, the spatial location of the diagnostics is explicitly incorporated in the inputs to account for their spatial correlation. Extensive evaluations demonstrate EFIT-Prime's accuracy and robustness across diverse scenarios, most notably showing good generalization on negative-triangularity discharges that were excluded from training. Timing studies indicate an ensemble inference time of 15 ms for predicting a new equilibrium, offering the possibility of plasma control in real-time, if the model is optimized for speed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Revisiting proton–proton fusion in chiral effective field theory

We calculate the S-factor for proton–proton fusion using chiral effective field theory interactions and currents. By performing order-by-order calculations with a variety of chiral interactions that are regularized and calibrated in different ways, we assess the uncertainty in the S-factor from the truncation of the effective field theory expansion and from the sensitivity of the S-factor to the short-distance axial current determined from three- and four-nucleon observables. We find that S(0) = (4.100 ± 0.024(syst) ± 0.013(stat) ± 0.008(g$_{A}$)) × 10$^{−23}$ MeV fm$^{2}$, where the three uncertainties arise, respectively, from the truncation of the effective field theory expansion, use of the two-nucleon axial current fit to few-nucleon observables and variation of the axial coupling constant within the recommended range. The increased value of S(0) compared to previous calculations is mainly driven by an increase in the recommended value for the axial coupling constant and is in agreement with a recent analysis based on pionless effective field theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effect of Nuclear Data Covariances on Integral Experiment Design with Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) uses MCNP6.2 and the Whisper code for criticality safety analyses of the Hanford Tank Farm. Together the codes derive baseline upper subcritical limits (USLs) for the waste models using experimental benchmarks. Whisper returns higher USLs, i.e. , has less of a conservative penalty, when the neutronic similarity of the experimental benchmarks to the application is high. Unfortunately, few critical benchmarks have high similarity to the Hanford tanks. The waste in the tanks is highly dilute in plutonium and contains large masses of weakly neutron-absorbing elements like iron and manganese. Experimental benchmarks typically have low sensitivity to these absorbers because they are present as structural materials. Lacking similar benchmarks, new Thermal Epithermal eXperiment (TEX) configurations with high Pu content and interstitial iron absorbers have been designed for the criticality safety validation. The features of the design have been iterated upon to maximize the similarity between the experiment and different Hanford waste models. The similarity is quantified with sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification using the representativity coefficient, or c k . The representativity calculation requires nuclear data covariances, which may differ between nuclear data libraries and between library versions. Because of these variations, the optimal design may depend on the nuclear data covariances library. A scenario can be envisioned where an experiment is designed, and c k is maximized, with one set of covariance data. However, when the covariance data is changed, say from ENDF/B-VII.1 to ENDF/B-VIII.0, and the benchmark is used in a criticality safety evaluation, the experiment becomes suboptimal with respect to c k . In this paper, we present how the optimal design of the new TEX experiments varied depending on the nuclear data covariances used to calculate c k . We compare ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0, as if the library had been updated since the design of the experiment. Additionally, we use JEFF3.3 to simulate if the covariance data of a different library had been used. The results show that the covariances do have an important effect on the designs, less so for thermal systems (where the data are more consistent between evaluations) and more so for epithermal systems where more differences exist.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calculation of the First Moment of Energy Using D-T Reactivity Formalisms Under the Maxwell-Boltzmann Distribution (Pt. 1)

Nuclear fusion science is an example of a scientific field with a rich history of expert involvement and scientific publications, which together, form an expert-knowledge base. One example of this history is the utilization of published reaction rates from a variety of authors. Investigators for Deuterium-Tritium (D-T) ion fusion can choose from using frequently cited methods: the Bosch and Hale reactivity, thermonuclear reaction rates from Caughlan and Fowler, and the reactivity evaluation from Miley, Towner & Ivich which forms the basis of the Naval Research Lab (NRL) formulary. There are other choices available. Each of the reactivity formulations considered here, are based upon the Maxwell- Boltzmann velocity distribution for D-T fusion ion reactants. Numerical methods for computer codes simulating hot, energetic plasmas, include tabulations of the reactivity, and the first moment of energy. The purpose of this study is to answer the question: what is the first moment of energy, and how has it been formulated? This report is part of a series of reports by the authors on D-T fusion-reaction formalism. The present focus is on defining the mathematical relationship of the first moment of D-T fusion ion kinetic energy, $\langle$E$\rangle$, with the fusion crosssection, fusion reactivity and its derivative with respect to ion-temperature. Three variants of the first moment $\langle$E$\rangle$ are analytically developed and explored: 1) constant cross-section, 2) a normalized first moment, and 3) a particular function of the first moment. Much of the mathematical development is relegated to the Appendices, for a concise presentation of topics and results. A research component of this discussion is our comparison of some of the reactivity and its derivative results between evaluations (1) versus (2) and (3), which the authors have not found in any other publication to date. This investigation is useful for validation, verification (V&V) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) as it compares the work of several authors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Context-aware learning of hierarchies of low-fidelity models for multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods leverage low-fidelity and surrogate models for variance reduction to make tractable uncertainty quantification even when numerically simulating the physical systems of interest with high-fidelity models is computationally expensive. This work proposes a context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method that optimally balances the costs of training low-fidelity models with the costs of Monte Carlo sampling. It generalizes the previously developed context-aware bi-fidelity Monte Carlo method to hierarchies of multiple models and to more general types of low-fidelity models. When training low-fidelity models, the proposed approach takes into account the context in which the learned low-fidelity models will be used, namely for variance reduction in Monte Carlo estimation, which allows it to find optimal trade-offs between training and sampling to minimize upper bounds of the mean-squared errors of the estimators for given computational budgets. This is in stark contrast to traditional surrogate modeling and model reduction techniques that construct low-fidelity models with the primary goal of approximating well the high-fidelity model outputs and typically ignore the context in which the learned models will be used in upstream tasks. Further, the proposed context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method applies to hierarchies of a wide range of types of low-fidelity models such as sparse-grid and deep-network models. Numerical experiments with the gyrokinetic simulation code Gene show speedups of up to two orders of magnitude compared to standard estimators when quantifying uncertainties in small-scale fluctuations in confined plasma in fusion reactors. This corresponds to a runtime reduction from 72 days to four hours on one node of the Lonestar6 supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Uncertainties In Neutron-Alpha Scattering With Chiral Nucleon-Nucleon And Three-Nucleon Forces

We report that modern ab initio theory combined with high-quality nucleon-nucleon (NN) and three-nucleon (3N) interactions from chiral effective field theory (EFT) can provide a predictive description of low-energy light-nuclei reactions relevant for astrophysics and fusion-energy applications. However, the high cost of computations has so far impeded a complete analysis of the uncertainty budget of such calculations. Starting from NN potentials up to fifth order (N 4 LO) combined with leading-order 3N forces, we study how the order-by-order convergence of the chiral expansion and confidence intervals for the 3N contact and contact-plus-one-pion-exchange low-energy constants (c E and c D ) contribute to the overall uncertainty budget of many-body calculations of neutron- 4 He (n-α) elastic scattering. We compute structure and reaction observables for three-, four-, and five-nucleon systems within the ab initio frameworks of the no-core shell model and no-core shell model with continuum. Using a small set of design runs, we construct a Gaussian process model (GPM) that acts as a statistical emulator for the theory. With this, we gain insight into how uncertainties in the 3N low-energy constants propagate throughout the calculation and determine the Bayesian posterior distribution of these parameters with Markov-Chain Monte Carlo. We find rapidly converging n-α phase shifts with respect to the chiral order. With the adopted leading-order 3N force, calculations based on the NN interaction at N 4 LO of Entem, Machleidt, and Nosyk are unable to reproduce the experimental phase shifts in the 3/2 - channel within the estimated chiral truncation errors. Closer agreement with empirical data is found when using an older parametrization of the NN interaction at order N 3 LO, and the position and width of the P-wave resonances can be used to reduce the uncertainty of the 3N low-energy constants. The present results point to a lack of spin-orbit strength when the newer parametrization of the chiral NN force up to fifth order is combined with the leading-order 3N force. The inclusion of higher-order 3N-force terms may be required to recover the missing strength. GPMs can act as fast and accurate emulators of ab initio many-body calculations of low-energy scattering and reactions of light nuclei, opening the way to a robust quantification of theoretical uncertainties grounded in the description of the underlying chiral Hamiltonian.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗