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At least 37 records · Page 2

Water-ice and water-updraft relationships near -10 C within populations of Florida cumuli

Evidence is presented for a sequential development of cloud water, rainwater, graupel, and crystalline ice with the aging of the cloud. This evidence is based on in-cloud microphysical data set collected in Florida convective towers that were penetrated close to their tops near -10 C; the very rapid onset of graupel that appears on repeat penetrations of some towers is of particular interest. A separate data set shows a large scatter in the relationship between the maximum value of cloud water and vertical velocity which indicates that measurements of cloud water can be misleading as an indication of growth activity. The sequential pass data showing the evolution of ice and water are consistent with a rime-splintering, secondary ice production hypothesis.

Sax, R. I.↗

Estimating the path-average rainwater content and updraft speed along a microwave link

There is a scarcity of methods for accurately estimating the mass of rainwater rather than its flux. A recently proposed technique uses the difference between the observed rates of attenuation A with increasing distance at 38 and 25 GHz, A(38-25), to estimate the rainwater content W. Unfortunately, this approach is still somewhat sensitive to the form of the drop-size distribution. An alternative proposed here uses the ratio A38/A25 to estimate the mass-weighted average raindrop size Dm. Rainwater content is then estimated from measurements of polarization propagation differential phase shift (Phi-DP) divided by (1-R), where R is the mass-weighted mean axis ratio of the raindrops computed from Dm. This paper investigates these two water-content estimators using results from a numerical simulation of observations along a microwave link. From these calculations, it appears that the combination (R, Phi-DP) produces more accurate estimates of W than does A38-25. In addition, by combining microwave estimates of W and the rate of rainfall in still air with the mass-weighted mean terminal fall speed derived using A38/A25, it is possible to detect the potential influence of vertical air motion on the raingage-microwave rainfall comparisons.

Jameson, Arthur R.↗

Autonomous Soaring for Improved Endurance of a Small Uninhabited Air Vehicle

A relatively unexplored method to improve the endurance of an autonomous aircraft is to use buoyant plumes of air found in the lower atmosphere called thermals or updrafts. Glider pilots and birds commonly use updrafts to improve range, endurance, or cross-country speed. This report presents a quantitative analysis of a small electric-powered uninhabited air vehicle using updrafts to extend its endurance over a target location. A three-degree-of-freedom simulation of the uninhabited air vehicle was used to determine the yearly effect of updrafts on performance. Surface radiation and rawinsonde balloon measurements taken at Desert Rock, Nevada, were used to determine updraft size, strength, spacing, shape, and maximum height for the simulation. A fixed-width spiral path was used to search for updrafts at the same time as maintaining line-of-sight to the surface target position. Power was used only when the aircraft was flying at the lower-altitude limit in search of updrafts. Results show that an uninhabited air vehicle with a nominal endurance of 2 hours can fly a maximum of 14 hours using updrafts during the summer and a maximum of 8 hours during the winter. The performance benefit and the chance of finding updrafts both depend on what time of day the uninhabited air vehicle is launched. Good endurance and probability of finding updrafts during the year was obtained when the uninhabited air vehicle was launched 30 percent into the daylight hours after sunrise each day. Yearly average endurance was found to be 8.6 hours with these launch times.

Allen, Michael J.↗

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. In order to become a viable option for operational forecasters to incorporate into their severe storm monitoring process, the total lightning jump must be placed into the framework of several severe storm conceptual models (e.g., radar evolution, storm morphology) which forecasters have built through training and experience. Thus, one of the goals of this study is to examine and relate the lightning jump concept to often used radar parameters (e.g., dBZ vertical structure, VIL, MESH, MESO/shear) in the warning environment. Tying lightning trends and lightning jump occurrences to these radar based parameters will provide forecasters with an additional tool that they can use to build an accurate realtime depiction as to what is going on in a given environment. Furthermore, relating the lightning jump concept to these parameters could also increase confidence in a warning decision they have already made, help tip the scales on whether or not to warn on a given storm, or to draw the forecaster s attention to a particular storm that is rapidly developing. Furthermore the lightning information will add vital storm scale information in regions that are not well covered by radar, or when radar failures occur. The physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation -sized ice mass, etc.; however, very few have related the concept of the lightning jump and manifestation of severe weather to storm dynamics and microphysics using multi -Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques. Therefore, the second half of this study will combine the lightning jump algorithm and these radar techniques in order to place the lightning jump concept into a physical and dynamical framework. This analysis includes examining such parameters as mixed phase precipitation volume, charging zone, updraft strength and updraft volume. Such a study should provide increased understanding of and confidence in the strengths and limitations of the lightning jump algorithm in the storm warning process.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

Lightning Flash Behavior and Convective Characteristics in Hurricanes Florence (2018), Dorian (2019), and Laura (2020)

Lightning is a useful tool in forecasting and understanding the behavior of tropical cyclones (TCs). Flash extent density (FED) has been found to be indicative of strength and intensification in TCs, but optical energy is a newer parameter that has not been studied intensively. This presentation analyzes the relationship between convective characteristics, such as updraft speed and updraft size, and Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) optical energy, flash area, and FED in Hurricanes Florence (2018) and Laura (2020). The maximum optical energy values were analyzed for each minute from the innermost 100 kilometers of the eye to determine if there was a relationship between optical energy, flash area, updraft behavior, and intensification. Microwave imagery and tail-doppler radar (TDR) were examined during rapid increases in flash energy to connect updraft size and strength to these spikes. Early results show an increase in size of a moderate updraft occurring just prior to an increase in lightning optical energy and TC intensity, while smaller updrafts coincide with a decrease in intensity or little to no change in intensity. Continuing work aims to investigate the role of moderate updraft size in lightning behavior and TC intensity.

Kiahna Mollette↗

A Quantitative Investigation of Entrainment and Detrainment in Numerically Simulated Convective Clouds: Simulations of Cumulonimbus Clouds - Pt. 2

Deep cumulonimbus clouds are simulated using a model that makes accurate diagnoses of entrainment and detrainment rates and of the properties of entrained and detrained air. Clouds generated by a variety of initial thermodynamic soundings are compared. In the simulations, updraft entrainment rates are large near and above cloud base, through the entire depth of the conditionally unstable layer. Stronger updrafts in a more unstable environment are better able to entrain relatively undisturbed environmental air, while weaker updrafts can entrain only air that has been modified by the clouds. When the maximum buoyancy is large, the updraft includes parcels with a wide range of buoyancies, while weaker clouds are more horizontally uniform. Strong downdrafts originate from levels at which updrafts detrain, and their mass flux depends on the mass flux of the updraft. The magnitude of mixing between cloud and environment, not the entrainment rate, varies inversely with the cloud radius. How much of the mixed air is entrained depends on the buoyancy.

Cohen, Charles↗

Microphysical Characteristics of Clouds During the TRMM Field Campaign

Further analysis of the TRMM field campaign data was conducted to examine the growth of precipitation in updraft regions of the TRMM field campaign tropical clouds and to extend the earlier results to cover the whole TRMM data set collected by the University of North Dakota (UND). The results have been submitted for publication. In this paper, composite vertical profiles of liquid water, small particle concentration, and updraft/downdraft magnitudes were presented from each of the campaigns. They exhibited similar peak values for the two TRMM regions of LBA and Kwajalein. Updrafts were found to be favored locations for precipitation embryos in the form of liquid or frozen drizzle-sized droplets. Although liquid water concentrations decreased to undetectable levels between -5 and -18 C in most glaciating updrafts, occasional traces of liquid water were found in updrafts at colder temperatures, probably due to the persistence of liquid drizzle droplets. The updraft magnitudes where the traces of liquid water were observed at cold temperatures do not appear to be stronger than updrafts without liquid water at similar temperatures, however.

Stith, Jeffrey L.↗

An Analytical Thermal Model for Autonomous Soaring Research

A viewgraph presentation describing an analytical thermal model used to enable research on autonomous soaring for a small UAV aircraft is given. The topics include: 1) Purpose; 2) Approach; 3) SURFRAD Data; 4) Convective Layer Thickness; 5) Surface Heat Budget; 6) Surface Virtual Potential Temperature Flux; 7) Convective Scaling Velocity; 8) Other Calculations; 9) Yearly trends; 10) Scale Factors; 11) Scale Factor Test Matrix; 12) Statistical Model; 13) Updraft Strength Calculation; 14) Updraft Diameter; 15) Updraft Shape; 16) Smoothed Updraft Shape; 17) Updraft Spacing; 18) Environment Sink; 19) Updraft Lifespan; 20) Autonomous Soaring Research; 21) Planned Flight Test; and 22) Mixing Ratio.

Allen, Michael↗

Weather Avoidance Guidelines for NASA Global Hawk High-Altitude Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

The current Global Hawk flight rules would probably not have been effective in the single event of greatest concern (the Emily encounter). The cloud top had not reached 50,000 ft until minutes before the encounter. The TOT and lightning data would not have been available until near the overflight time since this was a rapidly growing cell. This case would have required a last‐minute diversion when lightning became frequent. Avoiding such a cell probably requires continual monitoring of the forward camera and storm scope, whether or not cloud tops have been exceeding specific limits. However, the current overflight rules as strictly interpreted would have prohibited significant fractions of the successful Global Hawk overpasses of Karl and Matthew that proved not to be hazardous. Many other high altitude aircraft (ER‐2 and Global Hawk) flights in NASA tropical cyclone field programs have successfully overflown deep convective clouds without incident.The convective cell that caused serious concern about the safety of the ER‐2 in Emily was especially strong for a tropical cyclone environment, probably as strong or stronger than any that was overflown by the ER‐2 in 20 previous flights over tropical cyclones. Specifically, what made that cell a safety concern was the magnitude of the vertical velocity of the updraft, at least 20 m/s (4000 ft/minute) at the time the ER‐2 overflew it. Such a strong updraft can generate strong gravity waves at and above the tropopause, posing a potential danger to aircraft far above the maximum altitude of the updraft itself or its associated cloud top. Indeed, the ER‐2 was probably at least 9000 ft above that cloud top. Cloud‐top height, by itself, is not an especially good indicator of the intensity of convection and the likelihood of turbulence. Nor is overflying high cloud tops (i.e. > 50,000 ft) of particular concern unless there is other evidence of very strong convective updrafts beneath those tops in the path of the aircraft. center dot Lightning, especially lightning with a high flash rate, is well correlated with convective intensity. Lightning with a minimal flash rate (say 1‐3 flashes per minute) is indicative of updraft speeds of about 10 m/s in the mixed phase region where charge is being separated, generally at altitudes about 20‐25 kft in a hurricane. That is still stronger than typical updrafts (more like 5 m/s). An unresolved issue is whether there is a high and instantaneous correlation between vertical velocity in the middle troposphere (necessary for lightning generation) and near cloud top (more direct concern for overflights).

Cecil, Daniel J.↗

Vertical velocity in oceanic convection off tropical Australia

Time series of 1-Hz vertical velocity data collected during aircraft penetrations of oceanic cumulonimbus clouds over the western Pacific warm pool as part of the Equatorial Mesoscale Experiment (EMEX) are analyzed for updraft and downdraft events called cores. An updraft core is defined as occurring whenever the vertical velocity exceeds 1 m/sec for at least 500 m. A downdraft core is defined analogously. Over 19,000 km of straight and level flight legs are used in the analysis. Five hundred eleven updraft cores and 253 downdraft cores are included in the dataset. Core properties are summarized as distributions of average and maximum vertical velocity, diameter, and mass flux in four altitude intervals between 0.2 and 5.8 km. Distributions are approximately lognormal at all levels. Examination of the variation of the statistics with height suggests a maximum in vertical velocity between 2 and 3 km; slightly lower or equal vertical velocity is indicated at 5 km. Near the freezing level, virtual temperature deviations are found to be slightly positive for both updraft and downdraft cores. The excess in updraft cores is much smaller than that predicted by parcel theory. Comparisons with other studies that use the same analysis technique reveal that EMEX cores have approximately the same strength as cores of other oceanic areas, despite warmer sea surface temperatures. Diameter and mass flux are greater than those in the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GATE) but smaller than those in hurricane rainbands. Oceanic cores are much weaker and appear to be slightly smaller than those observed over land during the Thunderstorm Project. The markedly weaker oceanic vertical velocities below 5.8 km (compared to the continental cores) cannot be attributed to smaller total convective available potential energy or to very high water loading. Rather, it is suggested that water loading, although less than adiabatic, is more effective in reducing buoyancy of oceanic cores because of the smaller potential buoyancy below 5.8 km. Entrainment appears to be more effective in reducing buoyancy to well below adiabatic values in oceanic cores, a result consistent with the smaller oceanic core diameters in the lower cloud layer. It is speculated further that core diameters are related to boundary layer depth, which is clearly smaller over the oceans.

Lucas, Christopher↗

Numerical Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

Under this grant, we continued development and evaluation of the updraft downdraft model for cumulus parameterization. The model includes the mass, rainwater and vertical momentum budget equations for both updrafts and downdrafts. The rainwater generated in an updraft falls partly inside and partly outside the updraft. Two types of stationary solutions are identified for the coupled rainwater budget and vertical momentum equations: (1) solutions for small tilting angles, which are unstable; (2) solutions for large tilting angles, which are stable. In practical applications, we select the smallest stable tilting angle as an optimum value. The model has been incorporated into the Arakawa-Schubert (A-S) cumulus parameterization. The results of semi-prognostic and single-column prognostic tests of the revised A-S parameterization show drastic improvement in predicting the humidity field. Cheng and Arakawa presents the rationale and basic design of the updraft-downdraft model, together with these test results. Cheng and Arakawa, on the other hand gives technical details of the model as implemented in current version of the UCLA GCM.

Arakawa, Akio↗

A Cloud-Resolving Simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991): Storm Structure and Eyewall Buoyancy

A numerical simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991) is conducted using the Penn State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model MM5 with a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 Km on the finest nested mesh The model produces a realistic hurricane that intensifies slowly during the period of fine-scale simulation. Time-averaged results reveal the effects of storm motion. vertical shear, beta gyres and deformation forcing on the structure of radial inflow, vertical motion, and precipitation. Instantaneous model fields show that radial inflow in the eyewall is very intense near the surface but transitions to strong low-level outflow near the top of the boundary layer. The low-level structure is modulated by a wavenumber 2 disturbance that rotates around the eyewall at half the speed of the maximum tangential winds and is consistent with a vortex Rossby edge wave. The statistical distribution of vertical velocity in the eyewall indicates that the eyewall is composed of a small number of intense updrafts that account for the majority of the upward mass flux rather than a more gradual and symmetric eyewall circulation, consistent with the concept of hot towers. Tongues of high equivalent potential temperature, Theta(sub e), are seen along the inner edge of the eyewall updraft and within the low-level outflow. This air originates from outside of the eyewall with the highest theta(sub e) air coming from the layer closest to the surface after penetrating closest to the center. Occasionally, high Theta(sub e), air within the eye is drawn into the eyewall updrafts. The high Theta(sub e), air rising within the eyewall is shown to be associated with positive eyewall buoyancy with sufficient convective available potential energy along its path to produce relatively strong convective updrafts. Although the requirements for conditional symmetric instability are met within the eyewall and the air parcel trajectories follow slanted paths, the radial displacement of air parcels in the low-level outflow moves the air parcel sufficiently far away from the upper- warm core that the air becomes unstable to vertical displacements. Hence, convective instability rather than symmetric instability accounts for the stronger updrafts in the eyewall.

Braun, Scott A.↗

The Structure of A Pacific Narrow Cold Frontal Rainband

A NOAA P-3 instrumented aircraft observed an intense, fast-moving narrow cold frontal Farmhand as it approached the Pacific Northwest coast on 19 February 2001 during the Pacific Coastal Jets Experiment. Pseudo-dual-Doppler analyses performed on the airborne Doppler radar data while the frontal system was well offshore indicated that a narrow ribbon of very high radar reflectively convective cores characterized the Farmhand at low levels with echo tops to approximately 4-5 km. The NCFR exhibited gaps in its narrow ribbon of high reflectively, probably as a result of hydrodynamic instability all no its advancing cold pool leading edge. In contrast to some earlier studies of cold frontal rainbands, density current theory described well the motion of the overall front. The character of the updraft structure associated with the heavy rainfall at its leading edge varied across the gap region. The vertical shear of the cross-frontal low-level ambient flow exerted a strong influence on the updraft character, consistent with theoretical arguments developed for squall lines describing the balance of vorticity at the leading edge. In short regions south of the gaps the vertical wind shear was strongest with the updrafts and rain shafts more intense, narrower, and more erect or even downshear tilted. North of the gaps the wind shear weakened with less intense Dihedrals which tilted upshear with a broader band of rainfall. Simulations using a nonhydrostatic mesoscale nested grid model are used to investigate the gap regions, particularly the balance of cold pool induced to pre-frontal ambient shears at the leading edge. Observations confirm the model results that the updraft character depends on the balance of vorticity at the leading edge. Downshear-tilted updrafts imply that convection south of the gap regions would weaken with time relative to the frontal segments north of the gaps since inflow air would be affected by passage through the heavy rain region before ascent, suggesting a mechanism for gap filling.

Jorgensen, David P.↗

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; AMS 10th Satellite Symposium) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end to end physical and dynamical basis for relating lightning rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation‐sized ice mass, etc.; however, relation specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Shultz, Christopher J.↗

Physical and Dynamical Linkages between Lightning Jumps and Storm Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗