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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

How Does Vertical Wind Shear Influence Updraft Characteristics and Hydrometeor Distributions in Supercell Thunderstorms?

Abstract Vertical wind shear is known to affect supercell thunderstorms by displacing updraft hydrometeor mass downshear, thereby facilitating the storms’ longevity. Shear also impacts the size of supercell updrafts, with stronger shear leading to wider, less dilute, and stronger updrafts with likely greater hydrometeor production. To more clearly define the role of shear across different vertical layers on hydrometeor concentrations and displacements relative to supercell updrafts, a suite of idealized numerical model simulations of supercells was conducted. Shear magnitudes were systematically varied across the 0–1, 1–6, and 6–12 km AGL layers, while the thermodynamic environment was held fixed. Simulations show that as shear magnitude increases, especially from 1 to 6 km, updrafts become wider and less dilute with an increase in hydrometeor loading, along with an increase in the low-level precipitation area/rate and total precipitation accumulation. Even with greater updraft hydrometeor loading amid stronger shear, updrafts are more intense in stronger shear simulations due to larger thermal buoyancy owing to wider, less dilute updraft cores. Furthermore, downshear hydrometeor displacements are larger in environments with stronger 1–6-km shear. In contrast, there is relatively less sensitivity of hydrometeor concentrations and displacements to variations in either 0–1- or 6–12-km shear. Results are consistent across free tropospheric relative humidity sensitivity simulations, which show an increase in updraft size and hydrometeor mass with increasing free tropospheric relative humidity owing to a reduction in entrainment-driven dilution for wider updrafts in moister environments. Significance Statement Rotating thunderstorms, known as supercells, are able to persist for multiple hours. One common explanation is that large changes in wind speed and/or direction with height, or shear, transport rain/hail away from supercell updrafts, supporting their maintenance. The strong shear within supercell environments, however, may also lead to greater rail/hail amounts, thereby leading to weaker storms due to this extra mass of water/ice within updrafts. Furthermore, the impact of shear across different height layers on supercell rain/hail characteristics has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, computer simulations of supercells were conducted to determine that shear occurring between 1 and 6 km above ground level has a large impact on rain/hail distribution in supercells and that stronger shear in this layer leads to wider/stronger supercells with greater rain/hail accumulations at the surface. Additionally, some of the extra mass of water/ice is transported farther away from updrafts due to the stronger environmental storm-relative winds.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modulation of Tropical Convection-Circulation Interaction by Aerosol Indirect Effects in Convective Self-Aggregation Simulations of a Gray Zone Global Model

Disentangling the response of tropical convective updrafts to enhanced aerosol concentrations has been challenging. Leading theories for explaining the influence of aerosol concentrations on tropical convection are based on the dynamical response of convection to changes in cloud microphysics, neglecting possible changes in the environment. In recent years, global convection-permitting models (GCPM) have been developed to circumvent problems arising from imposing artificial scale separation on physical processes associated with deep convection. Here, we use a global model in the convective gray zone that partially simulates deep convection to investigate how enhanced concentrations of aerosols that act as cloud condensate nuclei (CCN) impact tropical convection features by modulating the convection-circulation interaction. Results from a pair of idealized non-rotating radiative-convective equilibrium simulations show that the enhanced CCN concentration leads to weaker large-scale circulation, the closeness of deep convective systems to the moist cluster edges, and more mid-level cloud water at an equilibrium state in which convective self-aggregation occurred. Correspondingly, the enhanced CCN concentration modulates how the physical processes that support or oppose convective aggregation maintain the aggregated state at equilibrium. Overall, the enhanced CCN concentration facilitates the development of deep convection in a drier environment but reduces mean precipitation. Our results emphasize the importance of allowing atmospheric phenomena to evolve continuously across spatial and temporal scales in simulations when investigating the response of tropical convection to changes in cloud microphysics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Importance of an Ensemble Approach for Modeling Aerosol‐Convection Interactions

Aerosol-convection interactions modulate cloud microphysics, thermodynamics, and updraft intensity, contributing to climate-scale aerosol-radiative forcing. However, quantifying aerosol indirect effects in mixed-phase deep convection remains challenging due to uncertainties in parameterized physics and initial conditions driving nonlinear evolution of convective processes. This study investigates the convective updraft sensitivity to random initial temperature perturbations using an idealized ensemble modeling framework informed by in situ thermodynamic and aerosol observations from the DOE TRACER field campaign. We analyze the impact of small-scale initial perturbations on updraft velocity and supersaturation, and determine the ensemble size required to minimize stochastic internal variability. Results show that minor thermodynamic perturbations can produce updraft variability comparable to aerosol-induced changes reported in prior work. An ensemble of 10 members sufficiently reduces variability, enabling robust investigation of aerosol-related updraft invigoration and informing the design of future ensemble-based aerosol-convection interaction studies in environments with significant spatiotemporal mesoscale thermodynamic and aerosol heterogeneity.

aerosol-convection interactions↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of Shear on Deep Convection Initiation. Part I: Theory

Abstract This article introduces a novel hypothesis for the role of vertical wind shear (“shear”) in deep convection initiation (DCI). In this hypothesis, initial moist updrafts that exceed a width and shear threshold will “root” within a progressively deeper steering current with time, increase their low-level cloud-relative flow and inflow, widen, and subsequently reduce their susceptibility to entrainment-driven dilution, evolving toward a quasi-steady self-sustaining state. In contrast, initial updrafts that do not exceed the aforementioned thresholds experience suppressed growth by shear-induced downward pressure gradient accelerations, will not root in a deep-enough steering current to increase their inflow, will narrow with time, and will succumb to entrainment-driven dilution. In the latter case, an externally driven lifting mechanism is required to sustain deep convection, and deep convection will not persist in the absence of such lifting mechanism. A theoretical model is developed from the equations of motion to further explore this hypothesis. The model indicates that shear generally suppresses DCI, raising the initial subcloud updraft width that is necessary for it to occur. However, there is a pronounced bifurcation in updraft growth in the model after the onset of convection. Sufficiently wide initial updrafts grow and eventually achieve a steady state. In contrast, insufficiently wide initial updrafts shrink with time and eventually decay completely without external support. A sharp initial updraft radius threshold discriminates between these two outcomes. Thus, consistent with our hypothesis and observations, shear inhibits DCI in some situations, but facilitates it in others.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tropical Cirrus in Global Storm-Resolving Models: 1. Role of Deep Convection

Pervasive cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) influence the climate by altering the top-of-atmosphere radiation balance and stratospheric water vapor budget. These cirrus are often associated with deep convection, which global climate models must parameterize and struggle to accurately simulate. By comparing high-resolution global storm-resolving models from the Dynamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) intercomparison that explicitly simulate deep convection to satellite observations, we assess how well these models simulate deep convection, convectively generated cirrus, and deep convective injection of water into the TTL over representative tropical land and ocean regions. The DYAMOND models simulate deep convective precipitation, organization, and cloud structure fairly well over land and ocean regions, but with clear intermodel differences. All models produce frequent overshooting convection whose strongest updrafts humidify the TTL and are its main source of frozen water. Intermodel differences in cloud properties and convective injection exceed differences between land and ocean regions in each model. We argue that, with further improvements, global storm-resolving models can better represent tropical cirrus and deep convection in present and future climates than coarser-resolution climate models. To realize this potential, they must use available observations to perfect their ice microphysics and dynamical flow solvers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying synoptic controls on boundary layer thermodynamic and cloud properties in a regional forecast model

Although most of our understanding of boundary layer cloudiness is based on idealized, subtropical, barotropic marine environments, boundary layer clouds exist across a range of conditions. In this study, we use the Naval Research Laboratory's Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) and an automated cold-front-relative analysis framework to explore the boundary layer structure associated with low clouds across a transect through the cold front of a midlatitude synoptic cyclone. The model credibly captures boundary layer structure in line with conceptual models of midlatitude cyclones and ground-based observations at Graciosa Island in the Azores. The warm sector is conditionally unstable, with clouds that are too shallow and with too little liquid water, compared to cloud property retrievals from satellite and surface-based instruments. The cold-frontal region exhibits convection associated with weak stability and ascent. Northwest of the cold front, the boundary layer is well mixed, deeper, and capped by a strong inversion maintained by large-scale subsidence. Simulated clouds in frontal and post-frontal regions are mostly too thick, with too much liquid water and too little cloud base drizzle. The post-frontal clouds are associated with grid-scale updrafts, which appear to be the model's attempt to represent mesoscale organization of cellular convection typically observed in the cold sector of midlatitude cyclones. The deep, well-mixed post-frontal boundary layers and cloudiness are maintained by strong surface fluxes, as in cold air outbreaks. Our analysis framework serves as a unique approach to model verification, and our results offer insights into differences in boundary layer cloud behavior between subtropical and synoptic cold-sector regimes.

Eissner, Jordan M. [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Marine Aerosol to Refinery Emissions: Transport and Evolution of CCN in the Houston Metropolitan Area and Their Impact on Cloud Formation

The Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) campaign aimed to untangle the impacts of contrasting aerosol sources on cloud microphysical properties within deep convective cells using airborne observations with the National Research Council Canada (NRC) Convair CV‐580 research aircraft. Horizontal and vertical gradients of aerosol number size distributions, total aerosol concentrations and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) spectra were measured in the lower troposphere to quantify the impact of different aerosol sources on aerosol‐cloud interactions. This study focuses on a research flight dedicated to characterizing the aerosol and CCN properties in the Houston Metropolitan region and identifies five main categories of aerosols based on characteristics of aerosol number size distributions, their CCN properties and meteorological conditions. These categories encompassed more than two orders of magnitude differences in aerosol and CCN concentrations, yet their hygroscopic properties remained similar. Aerosol number size distributions and effective hygroscopicity parameters are used to generate continuous CCN spectra to represent the major aerosol types. The different CCN spectra are then incorporated into a 1‐D aerosol‐cloud parcel model using a large range of updrafts selected in the range of those observed during the ESCAPE campaign to assess the impact of the major aerosol sources in Houston on deep convective cloud microphysical properties.

aerosol-cloud interactions↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wildfire towers drive firebrand lofting: insights from coupled fire-atmosphere model simulations

Wildfire behavior is shaped by complex fire dynamics, with firebrands playing a critical role in spot fire ignition and fire spread. While previous studies have explored firebrand generation and transport, the specific role of towers and troughs from wildland fires in the lofting of firebrands remains unquantified. This study addresses that gap by using physics-based coupled fire-atmosphere model simulations to examine how wildfire towers (updrafts) and troughs (downdrafts) influence firebrand lofting. Our results show that the majority of firebrands (78.85%) are lofted from towers, where strong updrafts drive long-range transport. In contrast, only 21.15% of firebrands are lofted within troughs, where downdrafts cause most firebrands to fall near the fireline. We also find that firebrand size significantly influences lofting behavior, with smaller particles (1 mm radius) exhibiting the strongest correlation with updraft intensity. These findings highlight the dominant role of wildfire towers in promoting long-distance firebrand dispersal—an essential factor in rapid wildfire growth and wildland-urban interface (WUI) fire risks. By quantifying the relationship between firebrand lofting and fire-induced atmospheric features, this study provides critical insights to improve spot fire modeling, support mitigation planning, and enhance firefighter and WUI community safety in spot fire-prone regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bottom-up Approach to Improve the Representation of Deep Convective Clouds in Weather and Climate Models (Final Report)

A fundamental yet outstanding question about deep cumulus convection regards how convective updrafts, downdrafts, and surface-based cold pools are inter-related within organized storms, and how these three convective components are modulated by external and internal factors. We considered this question through numerical model simulations as well as data collected during the MC3E field campaign. One of our basic hypotheses was that deep cold pools are forced by wide downdrafts which arise from wide updrafts. This “bottom-up” perspective required consideration of the external controls on updraft width, and then the internal controls on cold-pool characteristics including depth. Model experiments showed that environmental vertical wind shear (an external factor) exerts a particularly strong control on updraft width; analyses of linear and nonlinear dynamic pressure forcing readily explain this control. The experiments also showed that increases in updraft width are accompanied by corresponding increases in downdraft width and cold-pool depth. The updraft–downdraft connection is through precipitation: the wide area of precipitation that will be initiated in a wide updraft will in turn lead to a wide downdraft. The downdraft–cold pool connection is through mass continuity: at the downdraft terminus, the large downdraft mass flux through a wide downdraft must lead to a deep cold pool. Model experiments also showed that the cold-pool depth and other characteristics can be significantly modulated by microphysical processes (internal factors). Specifically, the cold-pool expansion rate, depth, and intensity was found to depend most strongly on the amount of rain evaporation near the ground. However, the sustenance of the cold pool itself depended upon the downdrafts strengthened by sublimation of graupel higher in the storm. Finally, field campaign data revealed compelling inter-relationships between the cold-pool characteristics, and downdraft transience in terms of the microphysics. For example, pulses of hail and graupel (also internal factors) within downdrafts resulted in short-lived increases in the cold-pool depth. However, the cold-pool speed appeared to be relatively independent of the cold-pool depth and intensity, suggesting limitations of density current theory to convective cold pools in nature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Updraft Width Implications for Cumulonimbus Growth in a Moist Marine Environment

Abstract An idealized large-eddy simulation of a tropical marine cloud population was performed. At any time, it contained hundreds of clouds, and updraft width in shallow convection emerging from a subcloud layer appeared to be an important indicator of whether specific convective elements deepened. In an environment with 80%–90% relative humidity below the 0°C level, updrafts that penetrated the 0°C level were larger at and above cloud base, which occurred at the lifting condensation level near 600 m. Parcels rising in these updrafts appeared to emerge from boundary layer eddies that averaged ∼200 m wider than those in clouds that only reached 1.5–3 km height. The deeply ascending parcels (growers) possessed statistically similar values of effective buoyancy below the level of free convection (LFC) as parcels that began to ascend in a cloud but stopped before reaching 3000 m (nongrowers). The growers also experienced less dilution above the LFC. Nongrowers were characterized by negative effective buoyancy and rapid deceleration above the LFC, while growers continued to accelerate well above the LFC. Growers occurred in areas with a greater magnitude of background convergence (or weaker divergence) in the subcloud layer, especially between 300 m and cloud base, but whether the convergence actually led to eddy widening is unclear. Significance Statement Cumulonimbus clouds are responsible for many extreme weather phenomena and are important contributors to Earth’s energy balance. However, the processes leading to the growth of individual clouds are not completely understood nor well-represented in weather prediction models. We find that the clouds containing updrafts that start out wider at early stages of their life cycles grow taller, possibly because they are protected more from drier air outside the cloud than narrow clouds. In addition, this work shows how the initial width of clouds might be related to convergence in the lowest part of the atmosphere, at heights where clouds initially develop. However, meteorologists must be careful not to overinterpret these results because numerical simulations inherently include assumptions that may not reflect reality. This reinforces the need to also observe processes occurring at the scales of individual clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

SSRS (Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator)

SSRS (Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator) is a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool for wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers and industry consultants to estimate the potential for soaring raptors to interact with operating wind turbines, without the need for site-specific data collection. Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has exposed the risk of turbine collisions for birds and bats. The risk to obligate soaring raptors such as golden eagles is of particular concern due to their small population and influence on ecological balance. Golden eagles rely heavily on updrafts to subsidize their flight, putting them in direct conflict with operational wind turbines that utilize the same wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors with varying atmospheric conditions is crucial for predicting and mitigating the risk of turbine collision. This software contains a predictive movement model that simulates individual flight paths of golden eagles during updraft-subsidized long-distance flight, including migration. For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates thousands of eagles at turbine-scale spatial resolution (50m) to produce a relative presence density map. The simulated eagles rely on updrafts to pursue uninterrupted directional flight with minimal energy expenditure, following fluid-flow principles. The simulator includes a stochastic model of eagle behavior and a systematic method of accounting for spatiotemporal variations in atmospheric conditions. This framework only requires publicly available atmospheric data to estimate orographic and thermal updrafts, ensuring general usability.

Sandhu, Rimple↗
DOE OSTI2026

Final report: Insights from ARM observations into aerosol processing and transport by extratropical cyclones and aerosol effects on cyclone clouds

This project advanced understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions in extratropical cyclones using observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory and ACE-ENA field campaigns, along with satellite datasets and numerical modeling. We have quantified the susceptibility of frontal clouds to aerosols, showing that this susceptibility is similar to that in non-frontal clouds despite substantial (factor 2) differences in droplet concentrations between these cloud types, and also significant differences in cloud albedo. A key finding was that Aitken-mode (here, 60-100nm diameter) aerosols play a disproportionately important role in droplet activation in frontal clouds, and concentrations of these particles are frequently strongly biased in climate models. Activation of aerosols depends strongly on updraft speeds, and via collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory we contributed to quantifying these better with the ARM radar wind profiler at the ENA site. Our studies in the North Atlantic have analogs in the Southern Ocean, and to draw these out we examined data from the MARCUS and SOCRATES field campaigns. We identified new particle formation within extratropical cyclones as a potentially important source of cloud condensation nuclei in these pristine marine environments. By combining ARM observations with perturbed parameter ensemble simulations, we demonstrated that surface observations can effectively constrain aerosol–cloud adjustments and reduce uncertainty in simulated cloud liquid water path responses by approximately 15%, yielding stronger constraints on historical aerosol cooling effects. The work further established precipitation processes as a dominant control on aerosol–cloud interactions and Earth system predictability.

Gordon, Hamish [Department of Chemical Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2020

Size dependence in chord characteristics from simulated and observed continental shallow cumulus

Abstract. In this study we compare long-term Doppler and Raman lidar observations against a full month of large eddy simulations of continental shallow cumulus clouds. The goal is to evaluate if the simulations can reproduce the mean observed vertical velocity and moisture structure of cumulus clouds and their associated subcloud circulations, as well as to establish if these properties depend on the size of the cloud. We propose methods to compare continuous chords of cloud detected from Doppler and Raman lidars with equivalent chords derived from 1D and 3D model output. While the individual chords are highly variable, composites of thousands of observed and millions of simulated chords contain a clear signal. We find that the simulations underestimate cloud size and fraction but successfully reproduce the observed structure of vertical velocity and moisture perturbations. There is a clear scaling of vertical velocity and moisture anomalies below the chords with chord size, but the moisture anomalies are only 1 %–2 % higher than the horizontal mean values. The differences between the observations and simulations are smaller than the difference in sampling the modeled chords in time or space. The shape of the vertical velocity and moisture anomalies from cloud chords sampled spatially from 3D model snapshots is almost perfectly symmetric. In contrast, the chords sampled temporally from the lidar observations and 1D model output have a marked asymmetry, with stronger updrafts and higher moisture anomalies occurring earlier on.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Boundary Layer Controls on the Shallow-to-Deep Cumulus Transition (Final Technical Report)

This project advanced our understanding of the processes governing cumulus cloud formation and provides an improved observational basis for validating earth system models. To be specific, the project used laser- and radar-remote sensors to examine the physical properties of updrafts that rise from earth’s surface and initiate clouds deeper in the atmosphere. These updrafts comprise “thermals” and “plumes” and occur at small spatial and temporal scales (e.g., 10s of minutes, 100s of meters). These small scales preclude explicit representation in most earth system and climate models, and thus necessitate “sub-grid-scale” parameterization of updraft processes. The innovation of this project was to directly measure the size, shape, strength and water vapor content of these updrafts with Doppler and Raman lidars, respectively, and to link these updraft properties to cloud processes using vertically pointed weather radars. The resulting data sets comprise 100s of thousands of updrafts and thousands of clouds, which far exceeds previous efforts, and thereby provides a robust statistical and physical representation of these processes. From these large datasets the project produced a sequence of scientific analyses that: (1) Elucidate how variations in the turbulent structure of the convective boundary layer control shallow cumulus convection, (2) Quantify the upward transport of water vapor to cloud base via thermals and plumes, (3) Validate large-eddy simulations of updrafts and shallow convective clouds, (4) Demonstrate a size-to-strength relationship between updraft width and updraft speed, and (5) Demonstrate how updrafts interact with the stability at the top of the convective boundary layer to modulate the depth and vigor of convective clouds. These results have been disseminated via several published journal articles, academic theses, and conference presentations. Collectively these results contribute to the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program’s goal to “improve understanding of the key cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiation processes that affect the Earth’s radiative balance and hydrological cycle, particularly processes that limit the predictive ability of regional and global earth system models”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Satellite and ARM Observations to Evaluate Cold Air Outbreak Cloud Transitions in E3SM Global Storm‐Resolving Simulations

Abstract This study examines marine boundary layer cloud regime transition during a cold air outbreak (CAO) over the Norwegian Sea, simulated by a global storm‐resolving model (GSRM) known as the Simple Cloud‐Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model (SCREAM). By selecting observational references based on a combination of large‐scale conditions rather than strict time‐matched comparisons, this study finds that SCREAM qualitatively captures the CAO cloud transition, including boundary layer growth, cloud mesoscale structure, and phase partitioning. SCREAM also accurately locates the greatest ice and liquid in the mesoscale updrafts, however, underestimates supercooled liquid water in cumulus clouds. The model evaluation approach adopted by this study takes advantages of the existing computational‐expensive global simulations of GSRM and the available observations to understand model performance and can be applied to assessments of other cloud regimes in different regions. Such practice provides valuable guidance on the future effort to correct and improve biased model behaviors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal controls on isolated convective storm drafts, precipitation intensity, and life cycle as observed during GoAmazon2014/5

Abstract. Isolated deep convective cloud life cycle and seasonal changes in storm properties are observed for daytime events during the US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Green Ocean Amazon Experiment (GoAmazon2014/5) campaign to understand controls on storm behavior. Storm life cycles are documented using surveillance radar from initiation through maturity and dissipation. Vertical air velocity estimates are obtained from radar wind profiler overpasses, with the storm environment informed by radiosondes. Dry-season storm conditions favored reduced morning shallow cloud coverage and larger low-level convective available potential energy (CAPE) than wet-season counterparts. The typical dry-season storm reached its peak intensity and size earlier in its life cycle compared with wet-season cells. These cells exhibited updrafts in core precipitation regions (Z>35 dBZ) to above the melting level as well as persistent downdrafts aloft within precipitation adjacent to their cores. Moreover, dry-season cells recorded more intense updrafts to earlier life cycle stages as well as a higher incidence of strong updrafts (i.e., >5 m s−1) at low levels. In contrast, wet-season storms were longer-lived and featured a higher incidence of moderate (i.e., 2–5 m s−1) updrafts aloft. These storms also favored a shift in their most intense properties to later life cycle stages. Strong downdrafts were less frequent within wet-season cells aloft, indicating a potential systematic difference in draft behaviors, as linked to graupel loading and other factors between the seasons. Results from a stochastic parcel model suggest that dry-season cells may expect stronger updrafts at low levels because of larger low-level CAPE in the dry season. Wet-season cells anticipate strong updrafts aloft because of larger free-tropospheric relative humidity and reduced entrainment-driven dilution. Enhanced dry-season downdrafts are partially attributed to increased evaporation, dry-air entrainment mixing, and negative buoyancy in regions adjacent to sampled dry-season cores.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

RCEMIP‐ACI: Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions in a Multimodel Ensemble of Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Simulations

Aerosol‐cloud interactions are a persistent source of uncertainty in climate research. This study presents findings from a model intercomparison project examining the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate in convection‐permitting radiative‐convective equilibrium (RCE) simulations. Specifically, 11 different modeling teams conducted RCE simulations under varying aerosol concentrations, domain configurations, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We analyze the response of domain‐mean cloud and radiative properties to imposed aerosol concentrations across different SSTs. Additionally, we explore the potential impact of aerosols on convective aggregation and large‐scale circulation in large‐domain simulations. The results reveal that the cloud and radiative responses to aerosols vary substantially across models. However, a common trend across models, SSTs, and domain configurations is that increased aerosol loading tends to suppress warm rain formation, enhance cloud water content in the mid‐troposphere, and consequently increase mid‐tropospheric humidity and upper‐tropospheric temperature, thereby impacting static stability. The warming of the upper troposphere can be attributed to reduced lateral entrainment effects due to the higher environmental humidity in the mid‐troposphere. However, models do not agree on aerosol impacts on convective updraft velocity based on the preliminary examination of high‐percentiles of vertical velocity at a single mid‐troposheric layer (500 hPa). In large‐domain simulations, where convection tends to self‐organize, aerosol loading does not consistently influence self‐organization but tends to reduce the intensity of large‐scale circulation forming between convective clusters and dry regions. This reduction in circulation intensity can be explained by the increase in static stability due to the upper tropospheric warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗