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OpenCRUMS USA: An Open Machine Learning Framework for Characterizing Variability in Aerosol Reanalysis Data
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have called for exploring how these techniques can be used for exploring patterns in large climate datasets. To that regard, the U.S. Department of Energy AI for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) supported a pilot initiative called the Open Classification of Regimes in the Southeast USA (OpenCRUMS USA) project to explore how AI can be used to characterize modes of spatial variability in large climate datasets. For this study, we focus on comparing two methods for characterizing the modes of spatial variability of surface aerosol concentration over the Houston region: empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and layerwise relevance propagation (LRP) applied to a convolutional neural network (CNN) classifier. We show that EOF analysis typically attributes spatial variability modes that span all of southeast Texas, prohibiting the attribution of spatial variability to localized regions. However, using LRP on the CNN classifier resolves the explanatory parameters at a finer spatial resolution than EOFs. This allows for the attribution of the spatial variability of surface aerosols to local regions of organic carbon which was not possible using EOFs. In addition, the LRP analysis also suggests that synoptic-scale transport of dust is most prevalent during anticyclonic and pretrough synoptic conditions as categorized by self-organizing maps.
The Variable and Non-Variable X-Ray Absorbers in Compton-Thin Type II Active Galactic Nuclei
We have conducted an extensive X-ray spectral variability study of a sample of 20 Compton-thin type II galaxies using broadband spectra from XMM-Newton, Chandra, and Suzaku. The aim is to study the variability of the neutral intrinsic X-ray obscuration along the line of sight and investigate the properties and location of the dominant component of the X-ray-obscuring gas. The observations are sensitive to absorption columns of N(sub H) ∼ 10(exp 20.5–24) cm(exp -2) of fully and partially covering neutral and/or lowly ionized gas on timescales spanning days to well over a decade. We detected variability in the column density of the full-covering absorber in 7/20 sources, on timescales of months to years, indicating a component of compact-scale X-ray-obscuring gas lying along the line of sight of each of these objects. Our results imply that torus models incorporating clouds or over-dense regions should account for line-of-sight column densities as low as ∼a few ×10(exp 21) cm(exp -2). However, 13/20 sources yielded no detection of significant variability in the full-covering obscurer, with upper limits of ΔN(sub H) spanning 10(exp 21–23) cm(exp -2). The dominant absorbing media in these systems could be distant, such as kiloparsec-scale dusty structures associated with the host galaxy, or a homogeneous medium along the line of sight. Thus, we find that overall, strong variability in full-covering obscurers is not highly prevalent in Compton-thin type IIs, at least for our sample, in contrast to previous results in the literature. Finally, 11/20 sources required a partial-covering, obscuring component in all or some of their observations, consistent with clumpy near-Compton-thick compact-scale gas.
An independent analysis of bias sources and variability in wind plant pre-construction energy yield estimation methods
The wind resource assessment community has long had the goal of reducing the bias between wind plant pre-construction energy yield assessment (EYA) and the observed annual energy production (AEP). This comparison is typically made between the 50% probability of exceedance (P50) value of the EYA and the long-term corrected operational AEP (hereafter OA P50), and is known as the P50 bias. The industry has critically lacked an independent analysis of bias reduction investigated across multiple consultants to identify the greatest sources of uncertainty and variance in the EYA process and the best opportunities for uncertainty reduction. The present study addresses this gap by benchmarking consultant methodologies against each other and against operational data at a scale not seen before in industry collaborations. We consider data from 10 wind plants and evaluate discrepancies between eight consultancies in the steps taken from estimates of gross to net energy. Consultants tend to overestimate the gross energy produced at the turbines and then compensate by further overestimating downstream losses, leading to a mean P50 bias near zero, still with significant variability among the individual wind plants. Within our data sample, we find that consultant estimates of all loss categories, except environmental losses, tend to reduce the project-to-project variability of the P50 bias. The disagreement between consultants, however, remains flat throughout the addition of losses. Finally, we find that differences in consultants’ estimates of project performance can lead to differences up to $10/MWh in the levelized cost of energy for a wind plant.
Metrics for understanding large-scale controls of multivariate temperature and precipitation variability
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Improving Prediction of Surface Solar Irradiance Variability by Integrating Observed Cloud Characteristics and Machine Learning
A 5-year, 1-minute resolution observational dataset of clouds and solar radiation was produced that includes two metrics of the variability in surface solar irradiance due to cloud type and fractional sky cover. Multiple regression models were trained to fit observations of surface solar irradiance variability from those two cloud property predictors. We found that ensemble tree-based methods, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine, have the least overfitting issues and showed the best performance with an R2 of 0.42. While the observational data trained in this study was only from one site, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, initial comparisons of the seasonality of the statistics suggest that these results are relatively weather regime independent; the generality of such a finding across sites will be tested in future work. The observational data and developed machine learning model are being used to create a numerical weather prediction model parameterization to enable day-ahead solar variability prediction in a computationally efficient way. This is a first step towards creating a new paradigm of predicting day-ahead variability with the potential to provide a new tool to improve grid operation, planning, and resilience.
A self-correcting variable-metric algorithm framework for nonsmooth optimization
Abstract An algorithm framework is proposed for minimizing nonsmooth functions. The framework is variable metric in that, in each iteration, a step is computed using a symmetric positive-definite matrix whose value is updated as in a quasi-Newton scheme. However, unlike previously proposed variable-metric algorithms for minimizing nonsmooth functions, the framework exploits self-correcting properties made possible through Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno-type updating. In so doing, the framework does not overly restrict the manner in which the step computation matrices are updated, yet the scheme is controlled well enough that global convergence guarantees can be established. The results of numerical experiments for a few algorithms are presented to demonstrate the self-correcting behaviours that are guaranteed by the framework.
How Snow Aggregate Ellipsoid Shape and Orientation Variability Affects Fall Speed and Self-Aggregation Rates
Snow aggregate shapes and orientations have long been known to exhibit substantial variability. Despite this observed variability, most weather and climate prediction models use fixed power-law functions that deterministically map particle size to mass and fall speed. As such, integrated quantities like precipitation and self-aggregation rates currently ignore nonlinear effects resulting from variation in shape and orientation for aggregates of the same size. This study therefore develops an analytic framework that couples an empirically based bivariate distribution of ellipsoid shapes to classical hydrodynamic theory so as to capture an appropriate dispersion of masses, projected areas, and fall speeds for an assumed size distribution. For a fixed aggregate size, shape variations produce approximately ±0.13 m s -1 standard deviation of fall speed which increases the mass flux fall speed dispersion by more than 100% over traditional microphysics models. This increased fall speed dispersion results predominantly from shape-induced mass dispersion whereas orientation and drag dispersion play a lesser role. Shape variations can increase mass- and reflectivity-weighted fall speeds by up to 60% of traditional models whereas self-aggregation rates can increase by a factor of 100 for very small slope parameters. This implies that aggregate shape variations effectively forestall the theorized onset of fall speed distribution narrowing and subsequent quenching of the aggregation process. As a result, it is likely that secondary ice formation is necessary to prevent an ever decreasing slope parameter. The mathematical theory presented in this study is used to develop simple correction factors for snow forecast and climate models.
IRAS variables as galactic structure tracers - Classification of the bright variables
The characteristics of the 'bright infrared variables' (BIRVs), a sample consisting of the 300 brightest stars in the IRAS Point Source Catalog with IRAS variability index VAR of 98 or greater, are investigated with the purpose of establishing which of IRAS variables are AGB stars (e.g., oxygen-rich Miras and carbon stars, as was assumed by Weinberg (1992)). Results of the analysis of optical, infrared, and microwave spectroscopy of these stars indicate that, out of 88 stars in the BIRV sample identified with cataloged variables, 86 can be classified as Miras. Results of a similar analysis performed for a color-selected sample of stars, using the color limits employed by Habing (1988) to select AGB stars, showed that, out of 52 percent of classified stars, 38 percent are non-AGB stars, including H II regions, planetary nebulae, supergiants, and young stellar objects, indicating that studies using color-selected samples are subject to misinterpretation.
Effect of microstructural and environmental variables on ductility of austenitic stainless steels
Austenitic stainless steels are used extensively in harsh environments, including for high-pressure gaseous hydrogen service. However, the tensile ductility of this class of materials is very sensitive to materials and environmental variables. While tensile ductility is generally insufficient to qualify a material for hydrogen service, ductility is an effective tool to explore microstructural and environmental variables and their effects on hydrogen susceptibility, to inform understanding of the mechanisms of hydrogen effects in metals, and to provide insight to microstructural variables that may improve relative performance. In this study, hydrogen precharging was used to simulate high-pressure hydrogen environments to evaluate hydrogen effects on tensile properties. Several austenitic stainless steels were considered, including both metastable and stable alloys. Room temperature and subambient temperature tensile properties were evaluated with three different internal hydrogen contents for type 304L and 316L austenitic stainless steels and one hydrogen content for XM-11. Significant ductility loss was observed for both metastable and stable alloys, suggesting the stability of the austenitic phase is not sufficient to characterize the effects of hydrogen. Internal hydrogen does influence the character of deformation, which drives local damage accumulation and ultimately fracture for both metastable and stable alloys. While a quantitative description of hydrogen-assisted fracture in austenitic stainless steels remains elusive, these observations underscore the importance of the hydrogen-defect interactions and the accumulation of damage at deformation length scales.
Variability of bottom carbonate chemistry over the deep coral reefs in the Florida Straits and the impacts of mesoscale processes
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Beyond MAP: A guide to dimensions of rainfall variability for tropical ecology
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Influence of simple terrain on the spatial variability of a low-level jet and wind farm performance in the AWAKEN field campaign
In wind energy research, scientific challenges are often associated with complex terrain sites, where orography, vegetation, and buildings disrupt flow uniformity. However, even sites characterized as simple terrain can exhibit significant spatial variability in wind speed, particularly during stable boundary layers (SBLs) and low-level jets (LLJs). This study investigates these terrain interactions using both simulations and observations from the American WAKe ExperimeNt (AWAKEN). We employ a multiscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation, integrating mesoscale forcing in the coarse domains and representing three rows of turbines from the King Plains wind farm as generalized actuator disks (GAD) in the large-eddy simulation (LES) domains. During a nocturnal LLJ event on 3 April 2023, the downstream, wake-affected turbine rows outperformed the upstream, unwaked row by 25 %–51 %. This counterintuitive result arises from terrain-induced streamwise variations in hub-height wind speed of approximately 4 m s −1 over 5 km – equivalent to ∼50 % of the upstream reference speed. This enhancement outweighs the wake-induced reduction in mean wind speed (∼12 %) and global blockage effects reported in the literature (∼1 %–3.4 %). The multiscale simulations capture the intra-farm spatial variability in power performance observed in SCADA data. Terrain-induced vertical displacement of the LLJ, coupled with large wind shear below the jet maximum, drives the substantial streamwise acceleration within the wind farm. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for spatial variability related to terrain, even in simple landscapes, particularly during LLJ conditions. Incorporating such effects into reduced-order modeling frameworks for wind farm design and control could significantly enhance their effectiveness.
Design study and performance analysis of a high-speed multistage variable-geometry fan for a variable cycle engine
A design technology study was performed to identify a high speed, multistage, variable geometry fan configuration capable of achieving wide flow modulation with near optimum efficiency at the important operating condition. A parametric screening study of the front and rear block fans was conducted in which the influence of major fan design features on weight and efficiency was determined. Key design parameters were varied systematically to determine the fan configuration most suited for a double bypass, variable cycle engine. Two and three stage fans were considered for the front block. A single stage, core driven fan was studied for the rear block. Variable geometry concepts were evaluated to provide near optimum off design performance. A detailed aerodynamic design and a preliminary mechanical design were carried out for the selected fan configuration. Performance predictions were made for the front and rear block fans.
The infrared variability of the eruptive variable HM Sagittae
Recent near infrared observations have been obtained of the peculiar eruptive variable HM Sagittae which show a general decrease in the flux levels between 1 and 5 microns during 1977-1978. The existing data are yet too sparse to ascertain the nature of the variability; however, both the IR and visual observations confirm the close resemblance of HM Sge to V1016 Cyg. A model of a binary symbiotic system containing a late type variable may be consistent with the current data.
A prospectus for a theory of variable variability
It is proposed that the kind of stellar variability exhibited by the Sun in its magnetic activity cycle should be considered as a prototype of a class of stellar variability. The signature includes long 'periods' (compared to that of the radial fundamental model), erratic behavior, and intermittency. As other phenomena in the same variability class we nominate the liminosity fluctuations of ZZ Ceti stars and the solar 160 m oscillation. We discuss the possibility that analogous physical mechanisms are at work in all these cases, namely instabilities driven in a thin layer. These instabilities should be favorable to grave modes (in angle) and should arise in conditions that may allow more than one kind of instability to occur at once. The interaction of these competing instabilities produces complicated temporal variations. Given suitable idealizations, it is shown how to begin to compute solutions of small, but finite, amplitude.
Variability of pigment biomass in the California Current system as determined by satellite imagery. II - Temporal variability
Characteristics of temporal variability in the California Current system are analyzed using a 30-month time series of CZCS imagery. About 20-25 percent of the variance is produced by a periodic annual cycle with peak values in winter. Analysis of ship-based chlorophyll measurements indicates that the winter peak is only characteristic of the upper portion of the euphotic zone and that total water column chlorophyll peaks during the spring upwelling season. Satellite studies of intraannual variability are modulated by strong 5- to 6-day oscillation in the availability of usable imagery, resulting from a combination of satellite orbital dynamics, which produces images of the study area roughly 4 out of every 6 days, and an oscillation in cloud cover, which controls the availability of clear imagery. The cloud cover oscillation, which is also present in coastal winds, undoubtedly affects the ocean surface and biases the data obtained by satellites. Analysis of data using a 5-day time step indicates that the predominant mode of nonseasonal variability is characterized by in-phase fluctuations throughout the southern and central California coastal region.
Constraints on Variability of Brightness and Surface Magnetism on Time Scales of Decades to Centuries in the Sun and Sun-Like Stars: A Source of Potential Terrestrial Climate Variability
The following summarizes the most important, results of our research: (1) Conciliation of solar and stellar photometric variability; (2) Demonstration of an inverse correlation between the global temperature of the terrestrial lower troposphere, inferred from the NASA Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU)) radiometers, and the total area of the Sun covered by coronal holes from January 1979 to present (up to May 2000); (3) Identification of a possible climate mechanism amplifying the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations; (4) Exploration of natural variability in an ocean-atmosphere climate model; (5) Presentation of a review of the sun's coronal influence on the terrestrial space environment; (6) Quantification of stellar variability as an influence on the analysis of periodic radial velocities that imply the presence of a planetary companion.