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Spatial and temporal variation in the value of solar power across United States electricity markets
Not provided.
Highlighting the Impact of Yaw Control by Parsing Atmospheric Conditions Based on Total Variation: Preprint
Identification of atmospheric conditions within a multivariate atmospheric dataset is a necessary step in the validation of wind plant control strategies. Most often, operating conditions are characterized in terms of aggregated observations and assume that the atmosphere is 'quasi-steady'. Aggregation of observations without regard to covariance between time series discounts the dynamical nature of the atmosphere and is not sufficiently representative of wind plant operating conditions. Identification and characterization of continuous time periods with atmospheric conditions that have a high value for analysis or simulation sets the stage for more advanced model validation and the development of real-time control and operation strategies. Controlling observational data for statistical stationarity highlights significant enhancements to the power production of waked turbines under wake steering wind plant control. Considering the combined energy ratio of the turbine to which yaw offsets are prescribed as well as the waked turbine show only moderate improvements when filtering for total validation. The same quality control that highlights wake steering also serves to underpin the off-nominal operation of the controlled turbine.
Constraints and variation in food web link-species space
Predicting food web structure in future climates is a pressing goal of ecology. These predictions may be impossible without a solid understanding of the factors that structure current food webs. Here, the most fundamental aspect of food web structure—the relationship between the number of links and species—is still poorly understood. Some species interactions may be physically or physiologically ‘forbidden'—like consumption by non-consumer species—with possible consequences for food web structure. We show that accounting for these ‘forbidden interactions' constrains the feasible link-species space, in tight agreement with empirical data. Rather than following one particular scaling relationship, food webs are distributed throughout this space according to shared biotic and abiotic features. Our study provides new insights into the long-standing question of which factors determine this fundamental aspect of food web structure.
Variational Monte Carlo Calculations of A ≤ 4 Nuclei with an Artificial Neural-Network Correlator Ansatz
Here, the complexity of many-body quantum wave functions is a central aspect of several fields of physics and chemistry where nonperturbative interactions are prominent. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have proven to be a flexible tool to approximate quantum many-body states in condensed matter and chemistry problems. In this work we introduce a neural-network quantum state ansatz to model the ground-state wave function of light nuclei, and approximately solve the nuclear many-body Schrodinger equation. Using efficient stochastic sampling and optimization schemes, our approach extends pioneering applications of ANNs in the field, which present exponentially scaling algorithmic complexity. We compute the binding energies and point-nucleon densities of A ≤ 4 nuclei as emerging from a leading-order pionless effective field theory Hamiltonian. We successfully benchmark the ANN wave function against more conventional parametrizations based on two- and three-body Jastrow functions, and virtually exact Green's function Monte Carlo results.
Variation in Reflected Beam Shape and Pointing Accuracy Over Time and Heliostat Field Position
Submitted to SolarPACES 2023 Proceedings.
Model and Standard Operating Procedures Supporting Signal Variation Flow Graph Analysis
This document will describe the principles of the Signal Variation Flow Technique, and the uncertainty models generated using it. We focus on the capture of the variation between the ideal signal and the measured signal. The ideal signal is defined to represent the signal output of a system whose full state behavior is known, with no variation in environment or during operation, and whose photons trajectories are not modified by the object. A CT uncertainty analysis is the result of two main steps. First, the radiography regime extends from the source to the collected image, which is 2D in the case of standard CT. This maps all upstream uncertainties into the variation observed on the radiograph and captures all variation in the physical domain. Second, the reconstruction regime extends from the captured images to the reconstructed 3D image. This regime is purely in the mathematical domain and corrects reconstruction algorithm artifacts/anomalies. The present work focuses on building the model through the radiography regime. The reconstruction regime is expected to be largely a study of algorithmic sensitivity, requiring the definition of a range of standardized tests through which the algorithms would be run. Radiographic variation would then be mapped through reconstruction sensitivities to predict the signal variation in the final image. An incomplete list for the reconstructed image variation output basis includes voxel density, edge blur and length variation, in analogous fashion to the basis functions presented in this work. The signal variation occurs in several forms at the radiograph. These forms are gathered into a complete basis set of functions describing all variation on the radiograph. The scale of each basis function is calculated independently via a specific SVFG. This includes 0D pixel noise (0DI), 0D energy noise (0DE), 1D blur (1DB), 1D length (1DL) or 2D position (2DP). These models are orthogonal in that they each explore a space in the signal variation domain that cannot be reached by the other basis functions. The variation basis functions, and associated SVFG models are split by output dimensionality, a term loosely used for categorization, and explained further below.
Induced and natural variation affect traits independently in hybrid Populus
Abstract The genetic control of many plant traits can be highly complex. Both allelic variation (sequence change) and dosage variation (copy number change) contribute to a plant's phenotype. While numerous studies have investigated the effect of allelic or dosage variation, very few have documented both within the same system, leaving their relative contribution to phenotypic effects unclear. The Populus genome is highly polymorphic, and poplars are fairly tolerant of gene dosage variation. Here, using a previously established Populus hybrid F1 population, we assessed and compared the effect of natural allelic variation and induced dosage variation on biomass, phenology, and leaf morphology traits. We identified QTLs for many of these traits, but our results indicate limited overlap between the QTLs associated with natural allelic variation and induced dosage variation. Additionally, the integration of data from both allelic and dosage variation identifies a larger set of QTLs that together explain a larger percentage of the phenotypic variance. Finally, our results suggest that the effect of the large indels might mask that of allelic QTLs. Our study helps clarify the relationship between allelic and dosage variation and their effects on quantitative traits.
Daytime variation in the aerosol indirect effect for warm marine boundary layer clouds in the eastern North Atlantic
Abstract. Warm boundary layer clouds in the eastern North Atlantic region exhibit significant diurnal variations in cloud properties. However, the diurnal cycle of the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) for these clouds remains poorly understood. This study takes advantage of recent advancements in the spatial resolution of geostationary satellites to explore the daytime variation in the AIE by estimating the cloud susceptibilities to changes in cloud droplet number concentration (Nd). Cloud retrievals for the month of July over 4 years (2018–2021) from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) on Meteosat-11 over this region are analyzed. Our results reveal a significant “U-shaped” daytime cycle in susceptibilities of the cloud liquid water path (LWP), cloud albedo, and cloud fraction. Clouds are found to be more susceptible to Nd perturbations at noon and less susceptible in the morning and evening. The magnitude and sign of cloud susceptibilities depend heavily on the cloud state defined by cloud LWP and precipitation conditions. Non-precipitating thin clouds account for 44 % of all warm boundary layer clouds in July, and they contribute the most to the observed daytime variation. Non-precipitating thick clouds are the least frequent cloud state (10 %), and they exhibit more negative LWP and albedo susceptibilities compared to thin clouds. Precipitating clouds are the dominant cloud state (46 %), but their cloud susceptibilities show minimal variation throughout the day. We find evidence that the daytime variation in LWP and albedo susceptibilities for non-precipitating clouds is influenced by a combination of the diurnal transition between non-precipitating thick and thin clouds and the “lagged” cloud responses to Nd perturbations. The daytime variation in cloud fraction susceptibility for non-precipitating thick clouds can be attributed to the daytime variation in cloud morphology (e.g., overcast or broken). The dissipation and development of clouds do not adequately explain the observed variation in cloud susceptibilities. Additionally, daytime variation in cloud susceptibility is primarily driven by variation in the intensity of cloud response rather than the frequency of occurrence of cloud states. Our results imply that polar-orbiting satellites with an overpass time at 13:30 LT underestimate daytime mean values of cloud susceptibility, as they observe susceptibility daily minima in the study region.
Variation-Resilient FeFET-Based In-Memory Computing Leveraging Probabilistic Deep Learning
Reliability issues stemming from device level nonidealities of nonvolatile emerging technologies like ferroelectric field-effect transistors (FeFETs), especially at scaled dimensions, cause substantial degradation in the accuracy of in-memory crossbar-based AI systems. Here, in this work, we present a variation-aware design technique to characterize the device level variations and to mitigate their impact on hardware accuracy employing a Bayesian neural network (BNN) approach. An effective conductance variation model is derived from the experimental measurements of cycle-to-cycle (C2C) and device-to-device (D2D) variations performed on FeFET devices fabricated using 28 nm high-k metal gate technology. The variations were found to be a function of different conductance states within the given programming range, which sharply contrasts earlier efforts where a fixed variation dispersion was considered for all conductance values. Such variation characteristics formulated for three different device sizes at different read voltages were provided as prior variation information to the BNN to yield a more exact and reliable inference. Near-ideal accuracy for shallow networks (MLP5 and LeNet models) on the MNIST dataset and limited accuracy decline by ~3.8%–16.1% for deeper AlexNet models on CIFAR10 dataset under a wide range of variations corresponding to different device sizes and read voltages, demonstrates the efficacy of our proposed device-algorithm co-design technique.
Rubidium and potassium isotopic variations in chondrites and Mars: Accretion signatures and planetary overprints
As moderately volatile elements, isotopes of Rb and K can trace volatilization processes in planetary bodies. Rubidium isotopic data are however very scarce, especially for non-carbonaceous meteorites. Here, in this study, we report combined Rb and K isotopic data (δ 87/85 Rb and δ 41/39 Κ) for 7 ordinary, 6 enstatite, and 4 Martian meteorite falls to understand the causes for the variations in volatile abundances and isotopic compositions. Bulk Rb and K isotopic compositions of planetary bodies are estimated to be (Table 1): Mars +0.10 ± 0.03 ‰ for Rb and -0.26 ± 0.05 ‰ for K, bulk OCs $-0.12^{+0.15}_{-0.24}$ ‰ for Rb and $-0.72^{+0.28}_{-0.41}$ ‰ for K, bulk ECs $-0.02^{+0.29}_{-0.26}$ ‰ for Rb and $-0.33^{+0.37}_{-0.23}$ ‰ for K. The bulk K isotopic compositions of subgroup OCs are estimated to be $-0.72^{+0.26}_{-0.55}$ ‰ for H chondrites, $-0.71^{+0.23}_{-0.39}$ ‰ for L chondrites, and $-0.77^{+0.63}_{-0.30}$ ‰ for LL chondrites. A broad correlation between the Rb and K isotopic compositions of planetary bodies is observed. The correlation follows a slope that is consistent with kinetic evaporation and condensation processes, suggesting volatility-controlled mass-dependent isotope fractionation (as opposed to nucleosynthetic anomalies). Individual ordinary and enstatite chondrites show large Rb and K isotopic variations (-1.02 to +0.29 ‰ for Rb and -0.91 to -0.15 ‰ for K). Samples of lower metamorphic grades display correlated elemental and isotopic fractionations between Rb and K, while samples of higher metamorphic grades show great scatter, suggesting that chondrite parent-body processes have decoupled the two elements and their isotopes at the sample scale. Several processes could have contributed to the observed isotopic variations of Rb and K, including (i) chondrule “nugget effect”, (ii) volatilization during parent-body thermal metamorphism (heat-induced vaporization and gas transport within parent bodies), (iii) thermal diffusion during parent-body metamorphism, and (iv) impact/shock heating. Quantitative modeling of the first two processes suggests that neither of them could produce isotopic variations large enough to explain the observed isotopic variations. Volatilization during parent-body thermal metamorphism [the scenario (ii)], which has been commonly invoked to explain the isotopic variations of volatile elements, is gas transport-limited and its effect on isotopic fractionations of moderately volatile elements should be negligible. Modeling of diffusion processes suggests that (iii) could produce K isotopic variation comparable to the observed variation. The large isotopic variations in non-carbonaceous meteorites are thus most likely due to diffusive redistribution of K and Rb during metamorphism and/or shock-induced heating and vaporization.
Genomic variation across Chinook salmon populations reveals effects of a duplication on migration alleles and supports fine scale structure
Abstract The distribution of ecotypic variation in natural populations is influenced by neutral and adaptive evolutionary forces that are challenging to disentangle. This study provides a high‐resolution portrait of genomic variation in Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) with emphasis on a region of major effect for ecotypic variation in migration timing. With a filtered data set of ~13 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from low‐coverage whole genome resequencing of 53 populations (3566 barcoded individuals), we contrasted patterns of genomic structure within and among major lineages and examined the extent of a selective sweep at a major effect region underlying migration timing (GREB1L/ROCK1). Neutral variation provided support for fine‐scale structure of populations, while allele frequency variation in GREB1L/ROCK1 was highly correlated with mean return timing for early and late migrating populations within each of the lineages ( r 2 = .58–.95; p < .001). However, the extent of selection within the genomic region controlling migration timing was much narrower in one lineage (interior stream‐type) compared to the other two major lineages, which corresponded to the breadth of phenotypic variation in migration timing observed among lineages. Evidence of a duplicated block within GREB1L/ROCK1 may be responsible for reduced recombination in this portion of the genome and contributes to phenotypic variation within and across lineages. Lastly, SNP positions across GREB1L/ROCK1 were assessed for their utility in discriminating migration timing among lineages, and we recommend multiple markers nearest the duplication to provide highest accuracy in conservation applications such as those that aim to protect early migrating Chinook salmon. These results highlight the need to investigate variation throughout the genome and the effects of structural variants on ecologically relevant phenotypic variation in natural species.
Variation in supercurrent connectivity and vortex pinning of state-of-the-art pulsed laser deposited RE Ba 2 Cu 3 O 7- x coated conductors
REBa 2 Cu 3 O 7-x (REBCO, RE: rare earth) coated conductors (CCs) suffer from great critical current I c differences between different manufacturers, I c variations within individual manufacturers, and often significant lengthwise fluctuations. The understanding of such variations is complicated by the lack of a direct correlation between I c and the critical current density J c . In fact, although J c is the fundamental property determined by the local vortex pinning landscape, I c is often limited by variable current blocking mechanisms. An important practical complexity is commercial practices of performing J c and I c evaluations based on I c at 77 K and self-field (sf), where connectivity variation dominates over vortex pinning variations. However, at higher fields and lower temperatures, vortex pinning becomes more complex and highly variable, making predictions of I c and J c at arbitrary temperature T, magnetic field H, and field orientation θ, quite uncertain. To address some aspects of this problem, we conducted detailed spool-to-spool performance characterization on recently manufactured REBCO CCs. Despite J c (77 K, sf) varies by only ∼11%, J c (77 K, 1 T) of its minimum and maximum (for H//ab-plane) show variations of ∼21% and ∼32%, respectively. This emphasizes the shortcoming in using J c (77 K, sf) as parameter for evaluating even the low field performance. An even more remarkable spool-to-spool J c variation of ∼68% was observed at 20 K and 15 T for H//ab-plane. To identify the origin of such lack of reproducibility we performed microstructural characterizations, which revealed, within the REBCO layer, large variation in the density of copper oxide (CuO x ) particles ranging from 0.1 to 2 μm in size. We believe that they play a decisive role in reducing the effective cross-section of the REBCO layer by not simply blocking current themselves, but also by nucleating off-axis REBCO grains, whose misoriented grain boundaries adversely impact REBCO grain-to-grain connectivity. The REBCO growth associated with high density CuO x particles also leads to the more disordered spatial arrangement of BaHfO 3 precipitate arrays, which, when self-aligning along the ab-planes, generate stronger pinning enhancing J c (H//ab) at all temperatures. In this way, we established that variations of both connectivity and vortex pinning are thus directly coupled. Our results also explain why the so-called ‘lift-factor’, typically defined by the ratio between I c (T, H) and I c (77 K, sf), frequently turns out to be unreliable.
Laminar-to-turbulent flame transition and cycle-to-cycle variations in large eddy simulation of spark-ignition engines
This paper investigates the effect of laminar-to-turbulent flame transition modeling on the prediction of cycle-to-cycle variations (CCVs) in large eddy simulation (LES) of spark-ignition (SI) engines. A laminar-to-turbulent flame transition model that describes the non-equilibrium sub-filter flame speed evolution during an early stage of flame kernel growth is developed. In the present model, the flame transition is characterized by the flame kernel size at which the flame transition ends, defined here as the flame transition scale. The proposed model captures the effects that variations in a turbulent flow field have on the evolution of early-stage burning rates, through variations in the flame transition scale. The proposed flame transition model is combined with the front propagation formulation (FPF) method and a spark-ignition model to predict CCVs in a gasoline direct injection SI engine. It is found that multi-cycle LES with the proposed flame transition model reproduces experimentally-observed CCVs satisfactorily. When the transition model is not considered or when variations in the transition process are neglected, CCVs are significantly under-predicted for the case considered here. These results indicate the importance of modeling the laminar-to-turbulent flame transition and the effect of turbulence on the transition process, when predicting CCVs, under certain engine conditions. The LES results are also used to analyze sources for variations in the flame transition. It is found, for the present engine case, that the most important source is the cycle-to-cycle variation in the turbulence dissipation rate, which is used to measure the strength of turbulence in the proposed model, near a spark plug. The large-scale velocity field and the variations of the laminar flame speed due to the mixture composition and thermal stratification are also found to be important factors to contribute to the variations in the flame transition.
Incorporating Diurnal and Meter-Scale Variations of Ambient CO 2 Concentrations in Development of Direct Air Capture Technologies
To be implemented on climate-relevant scales, direct air capture of CO 2 (DAC) will require large capital-intensive facilities and careful attention to cost minimization. In making decisions among potential sites for DAC facilities, all of the factors that will impact process cost and efficiency should be considered. In this paper we focus on a factor that has previously received little attention in the DAC community, namely variations in atmospheric conditions on hourly time scales and length scales of meters. We present data curated from extensive previous studies of biosphere-atmosphere fluxes with observations of CO 2 concentration, temperature, and relative humidity (RH) with hourly resolution from many sites in North America. These include locations where typical diurnal variations in CO 2 concentration during summer months exceeds 150 ppm. These variations are larger than the seasonal variations that exist between averaged CO 2 concentrations in winter and summer, and they are highly correlated with diurnal variations in temperature and RH. Diurnal variations are dependent on the height above ground at which CO 2 concentrations are measured, with smaller variations existing at heights of 10 m or more than at ground level. We illustrate the potential implications of these short-term variations for the operation and optimization of a DAC process with process-level calculations for a specific adsorption-based process using amine-rich adsorbents.
Genetic variation associated with adult migration timing in lineages of Steelhead and Chinook Salmon in the Columbia River
Abstract With the discovery of a major effect region (GREB1L, ROCK1) for adult migration timing in genomes of both Chinook Salmon and Steelhead, several subsequent studies have investigated the effect size and distribution of early and late migration alleles among populations in the Columbia River. Here, we synthesize the results of these studies for the major lineages of Chinook Salmon and Steelhead that include highly distinct groups in the interior Columbia River that exhibit atypical life histories from most coastal lineage populations of these two species. Whole‐genome studies with high marker density have provided extensive insight into SNPs most associated with adult migration timing, and suites of markers for each species have been genotyped in large numbers of individuals to further validate phenotypic effects. For Steelhead, the largest phenotypic effect sizes have been observed in the coastal lineage (36% of variation for passage timing at Bonneville Dam; 43% of variation for tributary arrival timing) compared to the inland lineage (7.5% of variation for passage timing at Bonneville Dam; 8.4% of variation for tributary arrival timing) that overwinter in freshwater prior to spawning. For Chinook Salmon, large effect sizes have been observed in all three lineages for multiple adult migration phenotypes (Coastal lineage: percentage of variation of 27.9% for passage timing at Bonneville Dam, 28.7% for arrival timing for spawning; Interior ocean type: percentage of variation of 47.6% for passage timing at Bonneville Dam, 39.6% for tributary arrival timing, 77.9% for arrival timing for spawning; Interior stream type: percentage of variation of 35.3% for passage at Bonneville Dam, 9.8% for tributary arrival timing, 4.7% for arrival timing for spawning). Together, these results have extended our understanding of genetic variation associated with life history diversity in distinct populations of the Columbia River, however, much research remains necessary to determine the causal mechanism for this major effect region on migration timing in these species.
Transcripts and genomic intervals associated with variation in metabolite abundance in maize leaves under field conditions
Abstract Plants exhibit extensive environment-dependent intraspecific metabolic variation, which likely plays a role in determining variation in whole plant phenotypes. However, much of the work seeking to use natural variation to link genes and transcript’s impacts on plant metabolism has employed data from controlled environments. Here, we generated and analyzed data on the variation in the abundance of 26 metabolites across 660 maize inbred lines under field conditions. We employ these data and previously published transcript and whole plant phenotype data reported for the same field experiment to identify both genomic intervals (through genome-wide association studies (GWAS)) and transcripts (using both transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS) and an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) approach based on random forest (RF)) associated with variation in metabolite abundance. Both genome-wide association and random forest-based methods identified substantial numbers of significant associations including genes with plausible links to the metabolites they are associated with. In contrast, the transcriptome-wide association identified only six significant associations. In three cases, genetic markers associated with metabolic variation in our study colocalized with markers linked to variation in non-metabolic traits scored in the same experiment. We speculate that the poor performance of transcriptome-wide association studies in identifying transcript-metabolite associations may reflect a high prevalence of non-linear interactions between transcripts and metabolites and/or a bias towards rare transcripts playing a large role in determining intraspecific metabolic variation.