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Climate Change Implications to Vegetation Production in Alaska

Investigation of long-term meteorological satellite data revealed statistically significant vegetation response to climate drivers of temperature, precipitation and solar radiation with exclusion of fire disturbance in Alaska. Abiotic trends were correlated to satellite remote sensing observations of normalized difference vegetation index to understand biophysical processes that could impact ecosystem carbon storage. Warming resulted in disparate trajectories for vegetation growth due to precipitation and photosynthetically active radiation variation. Interior spruce forest low lands in late summer through winter had precipitation deficit which resulted in extensive fire disturbance and browning of undisturbed vegetation with reduced post-fire recovery while Northern slope moist alpine tundra had increased production due to warmer-wetter conditions during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Coupled investigation of Alaska s vegetation response to warming climate found spatially dynamic abiotic processes with vegetation browning not a result from increased fire disturbance.

Neigh, Christopher S.R.↗

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Project Calibration and Validation for the L4_C Beta-Release Data Product - Volume 42

During the post-launch Cal/Val Phase of SMAP there are two objectives for each science product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the L1 science requirements according to the Cal/Val timeline. This report provides analysis and assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product specifically for the beta release. The beta-release version of the SMAP L4_C algorithms utilizes a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by SMAP soil moisture inputs along with optical remote sensing (e.g. MODIS) vegetation indices and other ancillary biophysical data to estimate global daily NEE and component carbon fluxes, particularly vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco). Other L4_C product elements include surface (<10 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture and landscape FT controls on GPP and Reco (Kimball et al. 2012). The L4_C product encapsulates SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying freeze/thaw and soil moisture constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity in northern ecosystems.

Cal/Val↗

The effect of leaf size on the microwave backscattering by corn

Attema and Ulaby (1978) proposed the cloud model to predict the microwave backscattering properties of vegetation. This paper describes a modification in which the biophysical properties and microwave properties of vegetation are related at the level of the individual scatterer (e.g., the leaf or the stalk) rather than at the level of the aggregated canopy (e.g., the green leaf area index). Assuming that the extinction cross section of an average leaf was proportional to its water content, that a power law relationship existed between the backscattering cross section of an average green corn leaf and its area, and that the backscattering coefficient of the surface was a linear function of its volumetric soil moisture content, it is found that the explicit inclusion of the effects of corn leaf size in the model led to an excellent fit between the observed and predicted backscattering coefficients. Also, an excellent power law relationship existed between the backscattering cross section of a corn leaf and its area.

Paris, J. F.↗

Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission L4_C Data Product Assessment (Version 2 Validated Release)

The SMAP satellite was successfully launched January 31st 2015, and began acquiring Earth observation data following in-orbit sensor calibration. Global data products derived from the SMAP L-band microwave measurements include Level 1 calibrated and geolocated radiometric brightness temperatures, Level 23 surface soil moisture and freezethaw geophysical retrievals mapped to a fixed Earth grid, and model enhanced Level 4 data products for surface to root zone soil moisture and terrestrial carbon (CO2) fluxes. The post-launch SMAP mission CalVal Phase had two primary objectives for each science product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the L1 science requirements. This report provides analysis and assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product pertaining to the validated release. The L4_C validated product release effectively replaces an earlier L4_C beta-product release (Kimball et al. 2015). The validated release described in this report incorporates a longer data record and benefits from algorithm and CalVal refinements acquired during the SMAP post-launch CalVal intensive period. The SMAP L4_C algorithms utilize a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by SMAP soil moisture inputs along with optical remote sensing (e.g. MODIS) vegetation indices and other ancillary biophysical data to estimate global daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and component carbon fluxes for vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco). Other L4_C product elements include surface (10 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture and landscape freeze/thaw (FT) controls on GPP and respiration (Kimball et al. 2012). The L4_C product encapsulates SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying FT and soil moisture constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity in northern ecosystems. There are no L1 science requirements for the L4_C product; however self-imposed requirements have been established focusing on NEE as the primary product field for validation, and on demonstrating L4_C accuracy and success in meeting product science requirements (Jackson et al. 2012). The other L4_C product fields also have strong utility for carbon science applications; however, analysis of these other fields is considered secondary relative to primary validation activities focusing on NEE. The L4_C targeted accuracy requirements are to meet or exceed a mean unbiased accuracy (ubRMSE) for NEE of 1.6 g C/sq m/d or 30 g C/sq m/yr, emphasizing northern (45N) boreal and arctic ecosystems; this is similar to the estimated accuracy level of in situ tower eddy covariance measurement-based observations (Baldocchi 2008).

Cal/Val↗

Vegetation species composition and canopy architecture information expressed in leaf water absorption measured in the 1000 nm and 2200 spectral region by an imaging spectrometer

Plant species composition and plant architectural attributes are critical parameters required for the measuring, monitoring, and modeling of terrestrial ecosystems. Remote sensing is commonly cited as an important tool for deriving vegetation properties at an appropriate scale for ecosystem studies, ranging from local to regional and even synoptic scales. Classical approaches rely on vegetation indices such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to estimate biophysical parameters such as leaf area index or intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (IPAR). Another approach is to apply a variety of classification schemes to map vegetation and thus extrapolate fine-scale information about specific sites to larger areas of similar composition. Imaging spectrometry provides additional information that is not obtainable through broad-band sensors and that may provide improved inputs both to direct biophysical estimates as well as classification schemes. Some of this capability has been demonstrated through improved discrimination of vegetation, estimates of canopy biochemistry, and liquid water estimates from vegetation. We investigate further the potential of leaf water absorption estimated from Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data as a means for discriminating vegetation types and deriving canopy architectural information. We expand our analysis to incorporate liquid water estimates from two spectral regions, the 1000-nm region and the 2200-nm region. The study was conducted in the vicinity of Jasper Ridge, California, which is located on the San Francisco peninsula to the west of the Stanford University campus. AVIRIS data were acquired over Jasper Ridge, CA, on June 2, 1992, at 19:31 UTC. Spectra from three sites in this image were analyzed. These data are from an area of healthy grass, oak woodland, and redwood forest, respectively. For these analyses, the AVIRIS-measured upwelling radiance spectra for the entire Jasper Ridge scene were transformed to apparent surface reflectance using a radiative transfer code-based inversion algorithm.

Green, Robert O.↗

Applications of the BIOPHYS Algorithm for Physically-Based Retrieval of Biophysical, Structural and Forest Disturbance Information

Canopy reflectance model inversion using look-up table approaches provides powerful and flexible options for deriving improved forest biophysical structural information (BSI) compared with traditional statistical empirical methods. The BIOPHYS algorithm is an improved, physically-based inversion approach for deriving BSI for independent use and validation and for monitoring, inventory and quantifying forest disturbance as well as input to ecosystem, climate and carbon models. Based on the multiple-forward mode (MFM) inversion approach, BIOPHYS results were summarized from different studies (Minnesota/NASA COVER; Virginia/LEDAPS; Saskatchewan/BOREAS), sensors (airborne MMR; Landsat; MODIS) and models (GeoSail; GOMS). Applications output included forest density, height, crown dimension, branch and green leaf area, canopy cover, disturbance estimates based on multi-temporal chronosequences, and structural change following recovery from forest fires over the last century. Good correspondences with validation field data were obtained. Integrated analyses of multiple solar and view angle imagery further improved retrievals compared with single pass data. Quantifying ecosystem dynamics such as the area and percent of forest disturbance, early regrowth and succession provide essential inputs to process-driven models of carbon flux. BIOPHYS is well suited for large-area, multi-temporal applications involving multiple image sets and mosaics for assessing vegetation disturbance and quantifying biophysical structural dynamics and change. It is also suitable for integration with forest inventory, monitoring, updating, and other programs.

Peddle, Derek R.↗

Tropical Surface Temperature Response to Vegetation Cover Changes and the Role of Drylands

Vegetation cover creates competing effects on land surface temperature: it typically cools through enhancing energy dissipation and warms via decreasing surface albedo. Global vegetation has been previously found to overall net cool land surfaces with cooling contributions from temperate and tropical vegetation and warming contributions from boreal vegetation. Recent studies suggest dryland vegetation across the tropics strongly contributes to this global net cooling feedback. However, observation-based vegetation-temperature interaction studies have been limited in the tropics, especially in their widespread drylands. Theoretical considerations also call into question the ability of dryland vegetation to strongly cool the surface under low water availability. Here, we use satellite observations to investigate how tropical vegetation cover influences the surface energy balance. We find that while increased vegetation cover would impart net cooling feedbacks across the tropics, net vegetal cooling effects are subdued in drylands. Using observations, we determine that dryland plants have less ability to cool the surface due to their cooling pathways being reduced by aridity, overall less efficient dissipation of turbulent energy, and their tendency to strongly increase solar radiation absorption. As a result, while proportional greening across the tropics would create an overall biophysical cooling feedback, dryland tropical vegetation reduces the overall tropical surface cooling magnitude by at least 14%, instead of enhancing cooling as suggested by previous global studies.

Biophysical Feedbacks↗

Tropical Surface Temperature Response to Vegetation Cover Changes and the Role of Drylands

Vegetation cover creates competing effects on land surface temperature: it typically cools through enhancing energy dissipation and warms via decreasing surface albedo. Global vegetation has been previously found to overall net cool land surfaces with cooling contributions from temperate and tropical vegetation and warming contributions from boreal vegetation. Recent studies suggest dryland vegetation across the tropics strongly contributes to this global net cooling feedback. However, observation-based vegetation-temperature interaction studies have been limited in the tropics, especially in their widespread drylands. Theoretical considerations also call into question the ability of dryland vegetation to strongly cool the surface under low water availability. Here, we use satellite observations to investigate how tropical vegetation cover influences the surface energy balance. We find that while increased vegetation cover would impart net cooling feedbacks across the tropics, net vegetal cooling effects are subdued in drylands. Using observations, we determine that dryland plants have less ability to cool the surface due to their cooling pathways being reduced by aridity, overall less efficient dissipation of turbulent energy, and their tendency to strongly increase solar radiation absorption. As a result, while proportional greening across the tropics would create an overall biophysical cooling feedback, dryland tropical vegetation reduces the overall tropical surface cooling magnitude by at least 14%, instead of enhancing cooling as suggested by previous global studies.

Vegetation↗

Investigating the Relationship Between Liquid Water and Leaf Area in Clonal Populus

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is one of the most commonly employed biophysical parameters used to characterize vegetation canopies and scale leaf physiological processes to larger scales. For example, LAI is a critical parameter used in regional scale estimates of evapotranspiration, photosynthesis, primary productivity, and carbon cycling (Running et al., 1989; Dorman and Sellers, 1989; Potter et al., 1993). LAI is typically estimated using ratio-based techniques, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI: e.g. Tucker 1979; Asrar et al., 1989; Sellers 1985, 1987). The physical basis behind this relationship depends on the high spectral contrast between scattered near-infrared (NIR) and absorbed red radiation in canopies. As the number of leaves present in a canopy increases over a unit area, NIR reflectance increases, while red reflectance decreases, resulting in an increase in the ratio. Through time series and image compositing, NDVI provides an additional temporal measure of how these parameters change, providing a means to monitor fluxes and productivity (Tucker et al., 1983). NDVI, while highly successful for agriculture and grassland ecosystems has been found to be less successful in evergreen chaparral and forested ecosystems (Badhwar et al., 1986; Gamon et al., 1993; Hall et al., 1995). Typically, the relationship between NDVI and LAI becomes progressively more asymptotic at LAI values above three (Sellers, 1985), although linear relationships have been observed in conifers at LAis as high as 13 (Spanner et al., 1990). In this paper, we explore an alternative approach for estimating LAI for remotely sensed data from AVIRIS based on estimates of canopy liquid water. Our primary objective is to test the hypothesis that the depth of the liquid water bands expressed in canopy reflectance spectra at 960, 1200, 1400 and 1900 nm increases with increasing LAI in canopies. This study builds from work by Roberts et al. (1997), in which liquid water was shown to increase following a gradient of increasing LAI ranging from grasslands to coniferous forests. In that study, it was observed that forests, which showed little variation in NDVI, showed significant variation in liquid water. In order to test this hypothesis, we analyzed field spectra measured over Populus resprouts of known LAI and monitored changes in liquid water in young Populus stands as they aged over a 4-year time span. The study was conducted in south-central Washington, in a clonal Populus fiber farm owned and operated by Boise-Cascade near the town of Wallula.

Roberts, Dar↗

Implementing the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) in a general circulation model: Methodologies and results

The Simple Biosphere MOdel (SiB) of Sellers et al., (1986) was designed to simulate the interactions between the Earth's land surface and the atmosphere by treating the vegetation explicitly and relistically, thereby incorporating biophysical controls on the exchanges of radiation, momentum, sensible and latent heat between the two systems. The steps taken to implement SiB in a modified version of the National Meteorological Center's spectral GCM are described. The coupled model (SiB-GCM) was used with a conventional hydrological model (Ctl-GCM) to produce summer and winter simulations. The same GCM was used with a conventional hydrological model (Ctl-GCM) to produce comparable 'control' summer and winter variations. It was found that SiB-GCM produced a more realistic partitioning of energy at the land surface than Ctl-GCM. Generally, SiB-GCM produced more sensible heat flux and less latent heat flux over vegetated land than did Ctl-GCM and this resulted in the development of a much deeper daytime planetary boundary and reduced precipitation rates over the continents in SiB-GCM. In the summer simulation, the 200 mb jet stream and the wind speed at 850 mb were slightly weakened in the SiB-GCM relative to the Ctl-GCM results and equivalent analyses from observations.

Sato, N.↗

Application of the Tor Vergata Scattering Model to L Band Backscatter During the Corn Growth Cycle

At the USDA's Optimizing Production Inputs for Economic and Environmental Enhancement (OPE3) experimental site in Beltsville, Maryland, USA) a field campaign took place throughout the 2002 corn growth cycle from May 10th (emergence of corn crops) to October 2nd (harvest). One of the microwave instruments deployed was the multi-frequency (X-, C- and L-band) quad-polarized (HH, HV, VV, VH) NASA GSFC/George Washington University (GWU) truck mounted radar. During the field campaign, this radar system provided once a week fully polarized C- and L-band (4.75 and 1.6 GHz) backscatter measurements from incidence angle of 15, 35, and 55 degrees. In support of microwave observations, an extensive ground characterization took place, which included measurements of surface roughness, soil moisture, vegetation biomass and morphology. The field conditions during the campaign are characterized by several dry downs with a period of drought in the month of August. Peak biomass the corn canopies was reached on July 24th with a total biomass of approximately 6.5 kg/sq m. This dynamic range in both soil moisture and vegetation conditions within the data set is ideal for the validation of discrete medium vegetation scattering models. In this study, we compare the L band backscatter measurements with simulations by the Tor Vergata model (ferrazzoli and Guerriero 1996). The measured soil moisture, vegetation biomass and most reliably measured vegetation morphological parameters (e.g. number of leaves, number of stems and stem height) were used as input for the Tor Vergata model. The more uncertain model parameters (e.g. surface roughness, leaf thickness) and the stem diameter were optimized using a parameter estimation routine based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. As cost function for this optimization, the HH and VV polarized backscatter measured and stimulated by the TOR Vergata model for incidence angle of 15, 35, and 55 degrees were used (6 measurements in total). The calibrated Tor Vergata model simulations are in excellent agreement with the measurements of Root Mean Squared Differences (RMSD's) of 0.8, 0.9 and 1.4 dB for incidences of 15, 35 and 55 degrees, respectively. The results from this study that a physically based scattering model with the appropriate parameterization can accurately simulate backscatter measurements and, as such, have the potential of being used for the retrieval of biophysical variables (e.g. soil moisture and vegetation biomass).

Joseph, A. T.↗

Canopy reflectance modelling of semiarid vegetation

Three different types of remote sensing algorithms for estimating vegetation amount and other land surface biophysical parameters were tested for semiarid environments. These included statistical linear models, the Li-Strahler geometric-optical canopy model, and linear spectral mixture analysis. The two study areas were the National Science Foundation's Jornada Long Term Ecological Research site near Las Cruces, NM, in the northern Chihuahuan desert, and the HAPEX-Sahel site near Niamey, Niger, in West Africa, comprising semiarid rangeland and subtropical crop land. The statistical approach (simple and multiple regression) resulted in high correlations between SPOT satellite spectral reflectance and shrub and grass cover, although these correlations varied with the spatial scale of aggregation of the measurements. The Li-Strahler model produced estimated of shrub size and density for both study sites with large standard errors. In the Jornada, the estimates were accurate enough to be useful for characterizing structural differences among three shrub strata. In Niger, the range of shrub cover and size in short-fallow shrublands is so low that the necessity of spatially distributed estimation of shrub size and density is questionable. Spectral mixture analysis of multiscale, multitemporal, multispectral radiometer data and imagery for Niger showed a positive relationship between fractions of spectral endmembers and surface parameters of interest including soil cover, vegetation cover, and leaf area index.

Franklin, Janet↗

Physics Based Modeling and Rendering of Vegetation in the Thermal Infrared

We outline a procedure for rendering physically-based thermal infrared images of simple vegetation scenes. Our approach incorporates the biophysical processes that affect the temperature distribution of the elements within a scene. Computer graphics plays a key role in two respects. First, in computing the distribution of scene shaded and sunlit facets and, second, in the final image rendering once the temperatures of all the elements in the scene have been computed. We illustrate our approach for a simple corn scene where the three-dimensional geometry is constructed based on measured morphological attributes of the row crop. Statistical methods are used to construct a representation of the scene in agreement with the measured characteristics. Our results are quite good. The rendered images exhibit realistic behavior in directional properties as a function of view and sun angle. The root-mean-square error in measured versus predicted brightness temperatures for the scene was 2.1 deg C.

Smith, J. A.↗

Effects of implementing the Simple Biosphere Model in a general circulation model

The Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) of Sellers et al., was designed to simulate the interactions between the earth's land surface and the atmosphere by treating the vegetation explicitly and realistically, thereby incorporating the biophysical controls on the exchanges of radiation, momentum, sensible and latent heat between the two systems. This paper describes the steps taken to implement SiB in a modified version of the National Meteorological Center's global spectral general circulation model (GCM) and explores the impact of the implementation on the simulated land surface fluxes and near-surface meteorological conditions. The coupled model (SiB-GCM) was used to produce summer and winter simulations. The same GCM was used with a conventional hydrological model (Ctl-GCM) to produce comparable 'control' summer and winter simulations for comparison. It was found that SiB-GCM produced a more realistic partitioning of energy at the land surface than Ctl-GCM. Generally, SiB-GCM, produced more sensible heat flux and less latent heat flux over vegetated land than did Ctl-GCM and this resulted in a much deeper daytime planetary boundary layer and reduced precipitation rates over the continents in SiB-GCM. In the summer simulation, the 200 mb jet stream was slightly weakened in the SiB-GCM relative to the Ctl-GCM results and analyses made from observations.

Sato, N.↗

Full-waveform, Laser Altimeter Measurements of Vegetation Vertical Structure and Sub-canopy Topography in Support of the North American Carbon Program

Full-waveform, scanning laser altimeters (i.e. lidar) provide a unique and precise view of the vertical and horizontal structure of vegetation across wide swaths. These unique laser altimeters systems are able to simultaneously image sub-canopy topography and the vertical structure of any overlying vegetation. These data reveal the true 3-D distribution of vegetation in leaf-on conditions enabling important biophysical parameters such as canopy height and aboveground biomass to be estimated with unprecedented accuracy. An airborne lidar mission was conducted in the summer of 2003 in support of preliminary studies for the North America Carbon Program. NASA's Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS) was used to image approximately 2,000 sq km in Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Maryland. Areas with available ground and other data were included (e.g., experimental forests, FLUXNET sites) in order to facilitate numerous bio- and geophysical investigations. Data collected included ground elevation and canopy height measurements for each laser footprint, as well as the vertical distribution of intercepted surfaces (i.e. the return waveform). Data are currently available at the LVIS website (http://lvis.gsfc.nasa.gov/). Further details of the mission, including the lidar system technology, the locations of the mapped areas, and examples of the numerous data products that can be derived from the return waveform data products are available on the website and will be presented. Future applications including potential fusion with other remote sensing data sets and a spaceborne implementation of wide-swath, full-waveform imaging lidar will also be discussed.

Blair, B.↗

Full-Waveform, Wide-Swath Lidar Imaging of Forested and Urban Areas in Leaf-On Conditions: Development, Results and Future Direction

Full-Waveform lidar measurements provide unprecedented views of the vertical and horizontal structure of vegetation and the topography of the Earth s surface. Utilizing a high signal-to-noise ratio lidar system, larger than typical laser footprints (10-20 m), and the recorded time history of interaction between a short-duration (approx. 10 ns) pulse of laser light and the surface of the Earth, full-waveform lidar is able to simultaneously image sub-canopy topography as well as the vertical structure of any overlying vegetation. These data reveal the true 3-D vegetation structure in leaf-on conditions enabling important biophysical parameters such as above-ground biomass to be estimated with unprecedented accuracy. An airborne lidar mission was conducted July-August 2003 in support of the North America Carbon Program. NASA s Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS) was used to image approximately 2,000 km$^2$ in Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Maryland. Areas with available ground and other data were included (e.g., experimental forests, FLUXNET sites) in order to facilitate as many bio- and geophysical investigations as possible. Data collected included ground elevation and canopy height measurements for each laser footprint, as well as the vertical distribution of intercepted surfaces. Data will be publicly distributed within 6- 12 months of collection. Further details of the mission, including the lidar system technology, the locations of the mapped areas, and examples of the numerous data products that can be derived from the return waveform data products will be presented. Future applications including detection of ground and vegetation canopy changes and a spaceborne implementation of wide-swath, full-waveform imaging lidar will also be discussed.

Blair, James B.↗

Modeling and Visualizing Uncertainty in Continuous Variables Predicted using Remotely Sensed Data

The use of remotely sensed images to map continuous biophysical variables, such as those related to terrestrial vegetation amount, sea surface temperature, and many other targets of NASA s Earth Observing System (EOS), includes variable, parametric, positional, spatial support and structural sources of uncertainty. A complete description of uncertainty will lead to a probability distribution at each location, allowing the exploration of the spatial dimension of uncertainty, that is, where the field is not well quantified. To achieve this purpose, convenient visualization tools are required. We have produced such a tool, called PDFVis, that facilitates the display of probability density functions (pdfs) on a per-grid-cell basis. The density estimate from Monte-Carlo generated realizations is interactively displayed as well as parametric and non-parametric summaries of the pdf field (such as mean, median, quartiles, standard deviation, number of modes, and locations of modes). Shaded surface renderings of pdfs along a transect can also be projected onto a plane. This tool will become more useful as richer descriptions of spatial uncertainty become available.

Dungan, Jennifer L.↗

An Agent-Based Interface to Terrestrial Ecological Forecasting

The latest generation of NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites has brought a new dimension to continuous monitoring of the living part of the Earth System, the biosphere. EOS data can now provide weekly global measures of vegetation productivity and ocean chlorophyll, and many related biophysical factors such as land cover changes or snowmelt rates. However, the highest economic value would come from forecasting impending conditions of the biosphere, to allow decision makers to mitigate dangers or exploit positive trends. NASA's strategic plan for the Earth Science Enterprise i d e n a s ecological forecasting as a focus for research. Ecological forecasting predicts the effects of changes in the physical, chemical and biological environment on ecosystem activity. Possible applications of such a system include predicting shortfalls or bumper crops of agricultural production, populations of threatened or invasive species or wildfire danger in time to allow improves preparation and logistical efficiency. Petabytes of remote sensing data are now available to help measure, understand and forecast changes in the Earth system, but using these data effectively can be surprisingly hard. The volume and variety of data files and formats are daunting. Simple data management activities, such as locating and transferring files, changing file formats, gridding point data, and scaling and reprojecting gridded data, can consume far more personnel time and resources than the actual data analysis. Some scientists commit to a particular data source or resolution just because using anything different would be more effort that it's worth. Better tools can help, but most of the tools developed to date are little more than shell scripts; they lack the flexibility to meet the diverse needs of users and are difficult to extend to handle changes in available data sources.

Golden, Keith↗