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NASA NTRS2019

Historical (1700–2012) Global Multi-Model Estimates of the Fire Emissions from the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP)

Fire emissions are critical for carbon and nutrient cycles, climate, and air quality. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) with interactive fire modeling provide important estimates for long-term and large-scale changes of fire emissions. Here we present the first multi-model estimates of global gridded historical fire emissions for 1700-2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols. The dataset is based on simulations of nine DGVMs with different state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), using the same and standardized protocols and forcing data, and the most up-to-date fire emission factor table from field and laboratory studies over various land cover types. We evaluate the simulations of present-day fire emissions by comparing them with satellite-based products. Evaluation results show that most DGVMs simulate present-day global fire emission totals within the range of satellite-based products, and can capture the high emissions over the tropical savannas, low emissions over the arid and sparsely vegetated regions, and the main features of seasonality. However, most of the models fail to simulate the interannual variability, partly due to a lack of modeling peat fires and tropical deforestation fires. Historically, all models show only a weak trend in global fire emissions before ~1850s, consistent with multi-source merged historical reconstructions. The long-term trends among DGVMs are quite different for the 20th century, with some models showing an increase and others a decrease in fire emissions, mainly as a result of the discrepancy in their simulated responses to human population density change and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). Our study provides a basic dataset for developing regional and global multi-source merged historical reconstructions and merging methods, and analyzing historical changes of fire emissions and their uncertainties as well as their role in the Earth system. It also highlights the importance of accurately modeling the responses of fire emissions to LULCC and population density change in reducing uncertainties in historical reconstructions of fire emissions and providing more reliable future projections.

Li, Fang↗

NASA NTRS1993

Resolution enhancement of spaceborne scatterometer data

Spaceborne wind scatterometers are designed principally to measure radar backscatter from the ocean's surface for the determination of the near-surface wind direction and speed. Although measurements of the radar backscatter are made over land, application of these measurements has been limited primarily to the calibration of the instrument. In this paper we present a method for generating enhanced resolution radar images of the earth's surface using spaceborne scatterometry. The technique is based on a new image reconstruction technique which takes advantage of the spatial overlap in scatterometer measurements made at different times to provide enhanced imaging resolution. We describe the reconstruction algorithm and demonstrate the technique using both simulated and actual Seasat-A Scatterometer (SASS) measurements. The SASS-derived images, which have approximately 4 km resolution, dramatically illustrate the resolution enhancement capability of the new technique. The technique permits utilization of both historic and contemporary scatterometer data for medium-scale monitoring of vegetation and polar ice. We discuss the tradeoff between imaging noise and resolution inherent in the technique.

Long, David G.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Advances in Land Surface Models and Indicators for Drought Monitoring and Prediction

Millions of people across the globe are affected by droughts every year, and recent droughts have highlighted the considerable agricultural impacts and economic costs of these events. Monitoring the state of droughts depends on integrating multiple indicators that each capture particular aspects of hydrologic impact and various types and phases of drought. As the capabilities of land surface models and remote sensing have improved, important physical processes such as dynamic, interactive vegetation phenology, groundwater, and snowpack evolution now support a range of drought indicators that better reflect coupled water, energy, and carbon cycle processes. In this work, we discuss these advances, including newer classes of indicators that can be applied to improve the characterization of drought onset, severity, and duration. We utilize a new model-based drought reconstruction to illustrate the role of dynamic phenology and groundwater in drought assessment. Further, through case studies on flash droughts, snow droughts, and drought recovery, we illustrate the potential advantages of advanced model physics and observational capabilities, especially from remote sensing, in characterizing droughts.

Christa D Peters-lidard↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advances in Land Surface Models and Indicators for Drought Monitoring and Prediction

Christa D Peters-lidard↗

NASA NTRS1995

Remote Sensing and Holocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCM's) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are shortterm records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCM's must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. An appropriate timeframe should extend over the Holocene period (the last 10,000 years) when most contemporary climate and environmental processes began. Since its inception in 1916, pollen analysis has successfully reconstructed the paleoecology of the last 10,000 years for many sites around the world, thus providing a powerful time-link between short- and long-term processes in the biosphere. However, pollen analytic results cannot be used in physiological models driven by remotely sensed data. Further, modern ecology and climate data are necessary to calibrate pollen analytical models. These are available for extensive regions in the northern hemisphere, particularly for eastern United States and Canada, and western Europe. In other parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe. This is the case of Patagonia in Argentina where a few weather stations are located close to the Atlantic seaports, fewer stations are in towns located near the eastern Andean foothill, and fewer still are scattered on the extensive Patagonian plateau. This problem became evident after completion of the Argentine-German Program of Palynology (PROPAL), a cooperative effort of National University of Mar del Plata (Argentina) and University Bamberg (Germany) to produce a modern pollen database for the Pampa and Patagonia regions.

DAntoni, Hector↗

NASA NTRS1993

Use of spectral analogy to evaluate canopy reflectance sensitivity to leaf optical property

The spectral variation of canopy reflectance is mostly governed by the absorption properties of the elements, hence the leaves, since their intrinsic scattering properties show very little spectral variation. The relationship between canopy reflectance and leaf reflectance measured at the red edge over sugar beet canopies was used to simulate canopy reflectance from leaf reflectance spectra measured over the whole spectral domain. The results show that the spectral analogies found allows accurate reconstruction of canopy reflectance spectra. Explicit assumptions about the very low spectral variation of leaf intrinsic scattering properties are thus indirectly justified. The sensitivity of canopy reflectance (rho(sub c)) to leaf optical properties can then be investigated from concurrent spectral variations of canopy (delta rho(sub c)/delta lambda) and leaf reflectance (delta rho(sub l)/delta lambda): (delta rho(sub c))/(delta rho(sub l)) = ((delta rho(sub c))/(delta lambda) ((delta rho( sub l))/(delta lambda))(sup -1)). This expression is strictly valid only when the optical properties of the soil background or the other vegetation elements such as bark are either spectrally flat or do not contribute significantly to canopy reflectance. Simulations using the SAIL and PROSPECT models demonstrate that the sensitivity of canopy reflectance to leaf reflectance is significant for large vegetation cover fractions in spectral domains where absorption is low. In these conditions, multiple, scattering enhances the leaf absorption features by a factor that can be greater than 2.0. To override the limitations of the SAIL model for the description of the canopy architecture, we tested the previous findings on experimental data. Concurrent canopy and leaf reflectance spectra were measured for a range of sugar beet canopies. The results show good agreement with the theoretical findings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of these findings, with particular attention to the potential detectability of leaf biochemical composition from canopy reflectance sensed from space.

Baret, Frederic↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Method for Improving Hotspot Directional Signatures in BRDF Models Used for MODIS

The semi-empirical, kernel-driven, linear RossThick-LiSparseReciprocal (RTLSR) Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) model is used to generate the routine MODIS BRDFAlbedo product due to its global applicability and the underlying physics. A challenge of this model in regard to surface reflectance anisotropy effects comes from its underestimation of the directional reflectance signatures near the Sun illumination direction; also known as the hotspot effect. In this study, a method has been developed for improving the ability of the RTLSR model to simulate the magnitude and width of the hotspot effect. The method corrects the volumetric scattering component of the RTLSR model using an exponential approximation of a physical hotspot kernel, which recreates the hotspot magnitude and width using two free parameters (C(sub 1) and C(sub 2), respectively). The approach allows one to reconstruct, with reasonable accuracy, the hotspot effect by adjusting or using the prior values of these two hotspot variables. Our results demonstrate that: (1) significant improvements in capturing hotspot effect can be made to this method by using the inverted hotspot parameters; (2) the reciprocal nature allow this method to be more adaptive for simulating the hotspot height and width with high accuracy, especially in cases where hotspot signatures are available; and (3) while the new approach is consistent with the heritage RTLSR model inversion used to estimate intrinsic narrowband and broadband albedos, it presents some differences for vegetation clumping index (CI) retrievals. With the hotspot-related model parameters determined a priori, this method offers improved performance for various ecological remote sensing applications; including the estimation of canopy structure parameters.

airborne measurements↗

NASA NTRS2022

Mineral Inputs, Paleoecological Change, and Holocene Carbon Accumulation at a Boreal Peatland in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada

The Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) is a vast contiguous peatland extending over >370,000 km2 in Canada's boreal-subarctic, and is the traditional land of the Omushkego Cree. It is currently undergoing climatic warming alongside other anthropogenic stressors, and contains a large below-ground carbon pool. Understanding how climate variability and multiple stressors impact peat accumulation in this region is critical to discerning how northern peatlands will respond to future climate and land-use changes. Pollen- and macrofossil-based paleoecological reconstructions, and analyses of aluminum (Al) and titanium (Ti) fluxes in a Holocene-aged peat core (VM375) taken from a bog in the Attawapiskat watershed were conducted to link ecosystem changes with hydroclimate and long-term carbon storage. Peat initiation is dated to 5780 cal yr B.P., coincident with land emergence driven by glacial isostatic adjustment. From 4500 to 4200 cal yr B.P., apparent rate of carbon accumulation increased, and was linked to more rapid rates of peat accretion and increases in minerotrophic indicators in the pollen record. This increase in peat accretion and shift in vegetation composition co-occur with higher rates of mineral influx as shown by Ti and Al concentrations, which may have supplied nutrients. A fen to bog transition takes place ~3300 cal yr B.P., with increases in Sphagnum spores and macrofossils, and a decline in the apparent rate of carbon accumulation relative to the earlier half of the record, where paleoecological proxies indicate treed wetland and fen stages. Since peat inception, the total carbon stock of the 260-cm peat column is 110 kg C m−2. This multi-proxy record shows an association between changing peat types and variability in apparent rates of carbon accumulation, and supports the hypothesis that mineral nutrients either supplied by surface hydrology or by eolian deposition played a role in Holocene peat carbon accumulation in eastern North American boreal peatlands.

Dust↗

NASA NTRS2016

North American Megadroughts in the Common Era: Reconstructions and Simulations

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Western North America experienced episodes of intense aridity that persisted for multiple decades or longer. These megadroughts are well documented in many proxy records, but the causal mechanisms are poorly understood. General circulation models (GCMs) simulate megadroughts, but do not reproduce the temporal clustering of events during the MCA, suggesting they are not caused by the time history of volcanic or solar forcing. Instead, GCMs generate megadroughts through (1) internal atmospheric variability, (2) sea-surface temperatures, and (3) land surface and dust aerosol feedbacks. While no hypothesis has been definitively rejected, and no GCM has accurately reproduced all features (e.g., timing, duration, and extent) of any specific megadrought, their persistence suggests a role for processes that impart memory to the climate system (land surface and ocean dynamics). Over the 21st century, GCMs project an increase in the risk of megadrought occurrence through greenhouse gas forced reductions in precipitation and increases in evaporative demand. This drying is robust across models and multiple drought indicators, but major uncertainties still need to be resolved. These include the potential moderation of vegetation evaporative losses at higher atmospheric [CO2], variations in land surface model complexity, and decadal to multidecadal modes of natural climate variability that could delay or advance onset of aridification over the the next several decades. Because future droughts will arise from both natural variability and greenhouse gas forced trends in hydroclimate, improving our understanding of the natural drivers of persistent multidecadal megadroughts should be a major research priority.

atmospheric temperature↗

NASA NTRS2017

The PMIP4 Contribution to CMIP6-Part 4: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum Experiments and PMIP4 Sensitivity Experiments

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional (Tier 2) sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalize on the relative abundance of paleoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.

Kageyama, Masa↗

NASA NTRS2010

Investigation of Long-Term Impacts of Urbanization when Considering Global Warming for a Coastal Tropical Region

The overachieving goal of this project is to gain a better understanding of the climate impacts caused by the combined effects of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes and increasing global concentrations of green house gases (GHG) in tropical coastal areas, regions where global, regional and local climate phenomena converge, taking as the test case the densely populated northeast region of the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. The research uses an integrated approach of high-resolution remote sensing information linked to a high resolution Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), which was employed to perform ensembles of climate simulations (combining 2-LCLU and 2-GHG concentration scenarios). Reconstructed agricultural maps are used to define past LCLU, and combined with reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SST) for the same period form the PAST climate scenario (1951-1956); while the PRESENT scenario (2000-2004) was additionally supported by high resolution remote sensing data (10-m-res). The climate reconstruction approach is validated with available observed climate data from surface weather stations for both periods of time simulated. The selection of the past and present climate scenarios considers large-scale biases (i.e. ENSO/NAO) as reflected in the region of interest. Direct and cross comparison of the results is allowing quantifying single, combined, and competitive effects. Results indicate that global GHG have dominant effects on minimum temperatures (following regional tendencies), while urban sprawl dominates maximum temperatures. To further investigate impacts of land use the Bowen Ratio and the thermal response number (TRN) are analyzed. The Bowen ratio indicates that forestation of past agricultural high areas have an overwhelmingly mitigation effect on increasing temperatures observed in different LCLU scenarios, but when abandoned agricultural lands are located in plains, the resulting shrub/grass lands produce higher surface temperatures. The TRN (J/m^2/degC) is a surface property defined as the ratio of the surface net radiation to the rate of change in surface temperature, expresses how those fluxes are reacting to radiant energy inputs. Natural vegetated surfaces have a greater TRN than urban and barren surfaces because the net radiation processed by them is mostly used for latent heat and thermal storage heat rather than sensible heat (heating the air). Significant changes in TRN were observed in the metropolitan area of San Juan for the two analyzed periods reflecting a reduction of this variable in the present from the past consistent with increasing in thermal mass, or intense urbanization.

Gonalez, Jorge E.↗

NASA NTRS2002

International Conference on Remote Sensing Applications for Archaeological Research and World Heritage Conservation

Contents include the following: Monitoring the Ancient Countryside: Remote Sensing and GIS at the Chora of Chersonesos (Crimea, Ukraine). Integration of Remote Sensing and GIS for Management Decision Support in the Pendjari Biosphere Reserve (Republic of Benin). Monitoring of deforestation invasion in natural reserves of northern Madagascar based on space imagery. Cartography of Kahuzi-Biega National Park. Cartography and Land Use Change of World Heritage Areas and the Benefits of Remote Sensing and GIS for Conservation. Assessing and Monitoring Vegetation in Nabq Protected Area, South Sinai, Egypt, using combine approach of Satellite Imagery and Land Surveys. Evaluation of forage resources in semi-arid savannah environments with satellite imagery: contribution to the management of a protected area (Nakuru National Park) in Kenya. SOGHA, the Surveillance of Gorilla Habitat in World Heritage sites using Space Technologies. Application of Remote Sensing to monitor the Mont-Saint-Michel Bay (France). Application of Remote Sensing & GIS for the Conservation of Natural and Cultural Heritage Sites of the Southern Province of Sri Lanka. Social and Environmental monitoring of a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve: Case Study over the Vosges du Nord and Pfalzerwald Parks using Corona and Spot Imagery. Satellite Remote Sensing as tool to Monitor Indian Reservation in the Brazilian Amazonia. Remote Sensing and GIS Technology for Monitoring UNESCO World Heritage Sites - A Pilot Project. Urban Green Spaces: Modern Heritage. Monitoring of the technical condition of the St. Sophia Cathedral and related monastic buildings in Kiev with Space Applications, geo-positioning systems and GIS tools. The Murghab delta palaeochannel Reconstruction on the Basis of Remote Sensing from Space. Acquisition, Registration and Application of IKONOS Space Imagery for the cultural World Heritage site at Mew, Turkmenistan. Remote Sensing and VR applications for the reconstruction of archaeological landscapes. Archaeology through Space: Experience in Indian Subcontinent. The creation of a GIS Archaeological Site Location Catalogue in Yucatan: A Tool to preserve its Cultural Heritage. Mapping the Ancient Anasazi Roads of Southeast Utah. Remote Sensing and GIS Technology for Identification of Conservation and Heritage sites in Urban Planning. Mapping Angkor: For a new appraisal of the Angkor region. Angkor and radar imaging: seeing a vast pre-industrial low-density, dispersed urban complex. Technical and methodological aspects of archaeological CRM integrating high resolution satellite imagery. The contribution of satellite imagery to archaeological survey: an example from western Syria. The use of satellite images, digital elevation models and ground truth for the monitoring of land degradation in the "Cinque Terre" National park. Remote Sensing and GIS Applications for Protection and Conservation of World Heritage Site on the coast - Case Study of Tamil Nadu Coast, India. Multispectral high resolution satellite imagery in combination with "traditional" remote sensing and ground survey methods to the study of archaeological landscapes. The case study of Tuscany. Use of Remotely-Sensed Imagery in Cultural Landscape. Characterisation at Fort Hood, Texas. Heritage Learning and Data Collection: Biodiversity & Heritage Conservation through Collaborative Monitoring & Research. A collaborative project by UNESCO's WHC (World Heritage Center) & The GLOBE Program (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment). Practical Remote Sensing Activities in an Interdisciplinary Master-Level Space Course.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Novel Framework for Quantifying past Methane Recycling by Sphagnum-Methanotroph Symbiosis Using Carbon and Hydrogen Isotope Ratios of Leaf Wax Biomarkers

The concentration of atmospheric methane is strongly linked to variations in Earth's climate. Currently, we can directly reconstruct the total atmospheric concentration of methane, but not individual terms of the methane cycle. Northern wetlands, dominated by Sphagnum, are an important contributor of atmospheric methane, and we seek to understand the methane cycle in these systems. We present a novel method for quantifying the proportion of carbon Sphagnum assimilates from its methanotrophic symbionts using stable isotope ratios of leaf-wax biomarkers. Carbon isotope ratios of Sphagnum compounds are determined by two competing influences, water content and the isotope ratio of source carbon. We disentangled these effects using a combined hydrogen and carbon isotope approach. We constrained Sphagnum water content using the contrast between the hydrogen isotope ratios of Sphagnum and vascular plant biomarkers. We then used Sphagnum water content to calculate the carbon isotope ratio of Sphagnum's carbon pool. Using a mass balance equation, we calculated the proportion of recycled methane contributed to the Sphagnum carbon pool, 'PRM.' We quantified PRM in peat monoliths from three microhabitats in the Mer Bleue peatland complex. Modern studies have shown that water table depth and vegetation have strong influences on the peatland methane cycle on instrumental time scales. With this new approach, delta C-13 of Sphagnum compounds are now a useful tool for investigating the relationships among hydrology, vegetation, and methanotrophy in Sphagnum peatlands over the time scales of entire peatland sediment records, vital to our understanding of the global carbon cycle through the Late Glacial and Holocene.

air pollution↗

NASA NTRS2023

Improving the MODIS LAI Compositing Using Prior Time-Series Information

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) long-term leaf area index (LAI) products have significantly contributed to global energy fluxes, climate change, and biogeochemistry research. However, the maximum fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by vegetation (Max-FPAR) compositing strategy of the Collection 6 (C6) products dictates that the main or backup algorithm is always triggered by observations of different quality, which indirectly causes the observed instability in the LAI time-series. Based on MODIS daily LAI retrievals, this study develops a prior knowledge time-series compositing algorithm (PKA) using a linear kernel driven (LKD) model. Our results show that the newly proposed PKA can significantly improve the LAI composites compared to the Max-FPAR strategy using ground-based observations for validation. We found that the PKA performs better than Max-FPAR in various aspects (different sites, seasons, and retrieval index (RI) ranges), with R2 increasing from 0.69 to 0.76 and root means square error (RMSE) decreasing from 1.01 to 0.84 compared to GBOV ground truth. The same improvement was shown for the ground truth LAIs measured at the Honghe and Hailun sites in northeastern China, with R2 increasing from 0.23 to 0.41 and RMSE decreasing from 1.27 to 1.25. In addition, three newly proposed temporal uncertainty metrics (time-series stability, TSS and time-series anomaly, TSA and reconstruction error metric, RE (the proximity to the main RT-based retrievals)) were applied to compare the stability of LAI time-series before and after PKA implementation. We found that the time series stability of PKA LAI was improved, the time series anomalies were reduced, and the retrieval rates of the main algorithm were also greatly enhanced compared to Max-FPAR LAI. A case intercomparison for Max-FPAR-MODIS, Max-FPAR-VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite), and PKA-MODIS LAIs in the Amazon Forest region showed that the PKA is also effective in improving the LAI retrieval over large regions with few qualified observations due to poor atmospheric conditions (RE decreased from 2.37/2.35 (Max-FPAR-MODIS/Max-FPAR-VIIRS) to 2.25 (PKA-MODIS) and RI increased from 61.94%/59.62% to 66.88%). The same improvement was seen in the BELMANIP 2.1 sites for almost all biomes except deciduous broadleaf forest, where the RE decreased from 1.85/2.13 to 1.15 overall. We note that the PKA has the potential to be easily implemented in the operational algorithms of subsequent MODIS and MODIS-like LAI Collections.

MODIS↗

NASA NTRS2021

Mid-Pliocene West African Monsoon Rainfall as Simulated in the PlioMIP2 Ensemble

The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; ∼3.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by a warm climate state, with similar to modern geography and ∼400 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration, and is therefore often considered an interesting analogue for near-future climate projections. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures, decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africa characterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using model results from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) ensemble, we analyse changes of the WAM rainfall during the mPWP by comparing them with the control simulations for the pre-industrial period. The ensemble shows a robust increase in the summer rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region, with an average increase of 2.5 mm/d, contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalous warming of the Sahara and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in >90 % of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM and an increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of the Sahara is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Though previous studies of future projections indicate a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase in that region in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We note that this effect will further depend on the long-term response of the vegetation to the CO2 forcing.

Mid-Pliocene↗

NASA NTRS2012

Resolution Enhancement of MODIS-Derived Water Indices for Studying Persistent Flooding

Monitoring coastal marshes for persistent flooding and salinity stress is a high priority issue in Louisiana. Remote sensing can identify environmental variables that can be indicators of marsh habitat conditions, and offer timely and relatively accurate information for aiding wetland vegetation management. Monitoring activity accuracy is often limited by mixed pixels which occur when areas represented by the pixel encompasses more than one cover type. Mixtures of marsh grasses and open water in 250m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data can impede flood area estimation. Flood mapping of such mixtures requires finer spatial resolution data to better represent the cover type composition within 250m MODIS pixel. Fusion of MODIS and Landsat can improve both spectral and temporal resolution of time series products to resolve rapid changes from forcing mechanisms like hurricane winds and storm surge. For this study, using a method for estimating sub-pixel values from a MODIS time series of a Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), using temporal weighting, was implemented to map persistent flooding in Louisiana coastal marshes. Ordinarily NDWI computed from daily 250m MODIS pixels represents a mixture of fragmented marshes and water. Here, sub-pixel NDWI values were derived for MODIS data using Landsat 30-m data. Each MODIS pixel was disaggregated into a mixture of the eight cover types according to the classified image pixels falling inside the MODIS pixel. The Landsat pixel means for each cover type inside a MODIS pixel were computed for the Landsat data preceding the MODIS image in time and for the Landsat data succeeding the MODIS image. The Landsat data were then weighted exponentially according to closeness in date to the MODIS data. The reconstructed MODIS data were produced by summing the product of fractional cover type with estimated NDWI values within each cover type. A new daily time series was produced using both the reconstructed 250-m MODIS, with enhanced features, and the approximated daily 30-m high-resolution image based on Landsat data. The algorithm was developed and tested over the Calcasieu-Sabine Basin, which was heavily inundated by storm surge from Hurricane Ike to study the extent and duration of flooding following the storm. Time series for 2000-2009, covering flooding events by Hurricane Rita in 2005 and Hurricane Ike in 2008, were derived. High resolution images were formed for all days in 2008 between the first cloud free Landsat scene and the last cloud-free Landsat scene. To refine and validate flooding maps, each time series was compared to Louisiana Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) station water levels adjusted to marsh to optimize thresholds for MODIS-derived time series of NDWI. Seasonal fluctuations were adjusted by subtracting ten year average NDWI for marshes, excluding the hurricane events. Results from different NDWI indices and a combination of indices were compared. Flooding persistence that was mapped with higher-resolution data showed some improvement over the original MODIS time series estimates. The advantage of this novel technique is that improved mapping of extent and duration of inundation can be provided.

Underwood, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future

Drought is a complex and multivariate phenomenon influenced by diverse physical and biological processes. Such complexity precludes simplistic explanations of cause and effect, making investigations of climate change and drought a challenging task. Here, we review important recent advances in our understanding of drought dynamics, drawing from studies of paleoclimate, the historical record, and model simulations of the past and future. Paleoclimate studies of drought variability over the last two millennia have progressed considerably through the development of new reconstructions and analyses combining reconstructions with process-based models. This work has generated new evidence for tropical Pacific forcing of megadroughts in Southwest North America, provided additional constraints for interpreting climate change projections in poorly characterized regions like East Africa, and demonstrated the exceptional magnitude of many modern era droughts. Development of high resolution proxy networks has lagged in many regions (e.g., South America, Africa), however, and quantitative comparisons between the paleoclimate record, models, and observations remain challenging. Fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change consistent with long-term warming projections have been identified for droughts in California, the Pacific Northwest, Western North America, and the Mediterranean. In other regions (e.g., Southwest North America, Australia, Africa), however, the degree to which climate change has affected recent droughts is more uncertain. While climate change-forced declines in precipitation have been detected for the Mediterranean, in most regions, the climate change signal has manifested through warmer temperatures that have increased evaporative losses and reduced snowfall and snowpack levels, amplifying deficits in soil moisture and runoff despite uncertain precipitation changes. Over the next century, projections indicate that warming will increase drought risk and severity across much of the subtropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, a consequence of regional precipitation declines and widespread warming. For many regions, however, the magnitude, robustness, and even direction of climate change-forced trends in drought depends on how drought is defined, with often large differences across indicators of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and vegetation health. Increasing confidence in climate change projections of drought and the associated impacts will likely depend on resolving uncertainties in processes that are currently poorly constrained (e.g., land-atmosphere interactions, terrestrial vegetation) and improved consideration of the role for human policies and management in ameliorating and adapting to changes in drought risk.

Detection and attribution↗