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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1988

Artificial intelligent decision support for low-cost launch vehicle integrated mission operations

The feasibility, benefits, and risks associated with Artificial Intelligence (AI) Expert Systems applied to low cost space expendable launch vehicle systems are reviewed. This study is in support of the joint USAF/NASA effort to define the next generation of a heavy-lift Advanced Launch System (ALS) which will provide economical and routine access to space. The significant technical goals of the ALS program include: a 10 fold reduction in cost per pound to orbit, launch processing in under 3 weeks, and higher reliability and safety standards than current expendables. Knowledge-based system techniques are being explored for the purpose of automating decision support processes in onboard and ground systems for pre-launch checkout and in-flight operations. Issues such as: satisfying real-time requirements, providing safety validation, hardware and Data Base Management System (DBMS) interfacing, system synergistic effects, human interfaces, and ease of maintainability, have an effect on the viability of expert systems as a useful tool.

Szatkowski, Gerard P.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Launch Vehicle Production and Operations Cost Metrics

Traditionally, launch vehicle cost has been evaluated based on $/Kg to orbit. This metric is calculated based on assumptions not typically met by a specific mission. These assumptions include the specified orbit whether Low Earth Orbit (LEO), Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO), or both. The metric also assumes the payload utilizes the full lift mass of the launch vehicle, which is rarely true even with secondary payloads.1,2,3 Other approaches for cost metrics have been evaluated including unit cost of the launch vehicle and an approach to consider the full program production and operations costs.4 Unit cost considers the variable cost of the vehicle and the definition of variable costs are discussed. The full program production and operation costs include both the variable costs and the manufacturing base. This metric also distinguishes operations costs from production costs, including pre-flight operational testing. Operations costs also consider the costs of flight operations, including control center operation and maintenance. Each of these 3 cost metrics show different sensitivities to various aspects of launch vehicle cost drivers. The comparison of these metrics provides the strengths and weaknesses of each yielding an assessment useful for cost metric selection for launch vehicle programs.

Watson, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS1986

HiMAT flight program: Test results and program assessment overview

The Highly Manueverable Aircraft Technology (HiMAT) program consisted of design, fabrication of two subscale remotely piloted research vehicles (RPRVs), and flight test. This technical memorandum describes the vehicles and test approach. An overview of the flight test results and comparisons with the design predictions are presented. These comparisons are made on a single-discipline basis, so that aerodynamics, structures, flight controls, and propulsion controls are examined one by one. The interactions between the disciplines are then examined, with the conclusions that the integration of the various technologies contributed to total vehicle performance gains. An assessment is made of the subscale RPRV approach from the standpoint of research data quality and quantity, unmanned effects as compared with manned vehicles, complexity, and cost. It is concluded that the RPRV technique, as adopted in this program, resulted in a more complex and costly vehicle than expected but is reasonable when compared with alternate ways of obtaining comparable results.

Deets, Dwain A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explainable AI for a No-Teardown Vehicle Component Cost Estimation: A Top-Down Approach

The broader ambition of this article is to popularize an approach for the fair distribution of the quantity of a system's output to its subsystems while allowing for underlying complex subsystem level interactions. Particularly, we present the use of this framework on a very specific (but generalizable) application, interesting for a more general AI audience. Here, we detail a data-driven approach to vehicle price modeling and its component price estimation by leveraging a combination of concepts from machine learning and game theory. We show an alternative to common teardown methodologies and surveying approaches for component and vehicle price estimation at the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) level that has the advantage of bypassing uncertainties involved in gathering teardown data, the need to perform expensive and biased surveying, and the need to perform retail price equivalent or indirect cost multiplier adjustments to mark up direct manufacturing costs to MSRP. This novel exercise not only provides accurate pricing of the technologies at the customer level, but also shows the, a priori known, large gaps in pricing strategies between manufacturers, vehicle classes, market segments, etc. There is also clear interaction between the price of technologies and other specifications present in vehicles. Those results are indication that old methods of manufacturer-level component costing, aggregation, and application of flat and rigid adjustment factors should be carefully examined. The findings are based on a database developed by Argonne, which includes over 64,000 vehicles covering MY1990 to MY2020 with hundreds of vehicle specs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring the potential of hydrogen in decarbonizing China's light-duty vehicle market

The Chinese government has pledged to achieve overall carbon neutrality by 2060. Currently, the transportation sector contributes to about 10% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China. Hence, China has created a well-defined energy vehicle development strategy to reduce GHG emissions from the transportation sector, further expanding into hydrogen vehicle technologies. In this study, the Transportation Energy Analysis Model (TEAM) investigates the potential of hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles (H2- ICEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) as a reliable pathway towards the government's aspiration of carbon neutrality in the transportation sector. According to TEAM, by adopting FCEVs and H2-ICEVs in the vehicle market, hydrogen demand could reach 25% of the total light-duty transportation energy demand in 2050. Consequently, this will lead to an annual reduction of more than 35 million tons GHG compared to only counting on the electrification pathway in the decarbonization task. Besides, FCEVs would take longer to penetrate the light-duty vehicle market compared to H2-ICEVs, as the current fuel cell technology still requires much improvement to attain a competitive vehicle cost of production.

Life cycle analysis↗
NASA NTRS1984

Trade-off between land vehicle antenna cost and gain for satellite mobile communications

Trade-offs between antenna cost and gain made for nine antennas as a feasibility study for the experimental land mobile satellite system, M-SAT(X) reported. This system is under development by JPL-NASA for a mobile telephone system to be used throughout the continental USA and Alaska. The mobile antenna is a key element in the development of this system.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Current State of Light-Duty Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment Costs: An Assessment of Contemporary Understanding

This study uses a hybrid meta-analysis and literature-review approach to understand the current state of knowledge regarding the costs of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). We present a novel way to consider, categorize, and label measures of cost and show cost measure estimates from a sample of 13 recent studies. We find that in general, there is too much variation and too few commonly represented EVSE cost measures to reasonably provide aggregate figures for these measures. We propose a convention for presenting EVSE cost measures that includes the application (commercial or residential), the power level (Level 1, Level 2, DCFC [with further distinction based on rated power capacity]), and the type of cost measure (hardware, installation, operation, and total cost). We contend that providing researchers with standard cost measures will help to advance our knowledge of EVSE costs by ensuring that future work will use common metrics. Establishing common metrics will enable conventional meta-analyses that will make assessments of EVSE costs even more accessible. Additionally, common metrics will make tracking costs more reliable as the technology continues to evolve and become more ubiquitous.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Potential Adoption and Benefits of Co-Optimized Multimode Engines and Fuels for U.S. Light-Duty Vehicles

Exploring a diverse portfolio of technologies for decarbonization is crucial to understanding the potential impacts of different technological solutions and their associated environmental implications. Using high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends in co-optimized multimode engines can increase engine efficiency and reduce vehicle emissions. Here, the multimode engine research focuses on the benefits of light-duty vehicle engines, which can operate in multiple modes depending on the vehicle's load. Low-temperature combustion can improve efficiency and reduce emissions (such as those from oxides of nitrogen and particulate matter) during low-load operation, while spark ignition performance is maintained in high-load operation. These advanced engines can be optimized to run on blends of biobased fuels. This analysis models scenarios for potential market adoption of co-optimized multimode vehicles fueled by three different bioblendstocks: ethanol, isopropanol, and isobutanol. An integrated modeling approach is used to forecast the energy and environmental impacts of the deployment of co-optimized multimode vehicles and fuels in the light-duty sector over the 2020-to-2050 time horizon. The multidisciplinary approach combines vehicle sales modeling, system dynamics modeling of the biorefining industry, and life cycle assessment to estimate the emissions and energy benefits. The models consider market forces such as consumer preferences for vehicle attributes, biofuel supply and demand dynamics subject to biorefinery capacity build-out and bioresource constraints, and forecasted changes to the U.S. bulk energy system over time. Market adoption of co-optimized vehicles is evaluated across a wide parameter space for incremental vehicle cost and engine efficiency improvement. This analysis reveals that the deployment of co-optimized multimode fuels and vehicles results in up to a 5% reduction in annual sector-wide life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, relative to a business-as-usual scenario, but is also indicates environmental trade-offs, such as higher life cycle water-use. Emission benefits could potentially increase beyond 2050, as the new technologies penetrate the market and gain a foothold. Results also show that, under certain circumstances, vehicles with engines co-optimized for use with high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends can be cost-competitive with conventional gasoline, while reducing GHG emissions. Our modeling results indicate that co-optimized multimode fuels and engines can be strategically leveraged in tandem with electrification to decarbonize the light-duty sector. Co-optimized vehicles could play a role in the early years of the time horizon, while electric vehicles (EVs) could become more competitive in the later years, highlighting the complementary benefits of these technologies for GHG reductions.

Oke, Doris↗
NASA NTRS1986

Manned Mars mission cost estimate

The potential costs of several options of a manned Mars mission are examined. A cost estimating methodology based primarily on existing Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) parametric cost models is summarized. These models include the MSFC Space Station Cost Model and the MSFC Launch Vehicle Cost Model as well as other modes and techniques. The ground rules and assumptions of the cost estimating methodology are discussed and cost estimates presented for six potential mission options which were studied. The estimated manned Mars mission costs are compared to the cost of the somewhat analogous Apollo Program cost after normalizing the Apollo cost to the environment and ground rules of the manned Mars missions. It is concluded that a manned Mars mission, as currently defined, could be accomplished for under $30 billion in 1985 dollars excluding launch vehicle development and mission operations.

Hamaker, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2015

Space Technology Mission Directorate: Game Changing Development

NASA and the aerospace community have deep roots in manufacturing technology and innovation. Through it's Game Changing Development Program and the Advanced Manufacturing Technology Project NASA develops and matures innovative, low-cost manufacturing processes and products. Launch vehicle propulsion systems are a particular area of interest since they typically comprise a large percentage of the total vehicle cost and development schedule. NASA is currently working to develop and utilize emerging technologies such as additive manufacturing (i.e. 3D printing) and computational materials and processing tools that could dramatically improve affordability, capability, and reduce schedule for rocket propulsion hardware.

Gaddis, Stephen W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trajectory prediction dimensionality reduction for low-cost connected automated vehicle systems

Here, to facilitate low-cost connected automated vehicle (CAV) system development, this study proposes two interpretable dimensionality reduction techniques in vehicle trajectory prediction, i.e., the piecewise Taylor series approximation (PTA) and the piecewise Fourier series approximation (PFA), to lower computation complexity, reduce device investment, and decrease computation energy consumption. Two benchmarks are developed, the long short-term memory (LSTM)-based model without dimensionality reduction and the LSTM-based model with encoder-decoder (a widely used dimensionality reduction technique). Results show that the four predictions have similar accuracy, and the training time (proportional to computation energy consumption) of models with dimensionality reduction techniques is greatly reduced. The reduction is even more significant when PTA/PFA is used. Sensitivity analysis advises PFA/PTA parameter selections to reduce computation complexity without significant loss of prediction accuracy. Further, the robustness of the LSTM PTA/PFA is proven by the investigation of data noises.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2020

Parametric Cost Estimates of Four 20 Ton Payload Mars EDL Vehicle Concepts

Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. Many studies have examined various vehicles and/or technologies which could be used to send humans to Mars. However, nearly all of these studies have either ignored cost or have used the mass of the vehicles as a surrogate for cost. This work presents parametric cost estimates of four Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing vehicle concepts capable of landing 20 tons of payload on the surface of Mars. The concepts are the Co-Optimization Blunt-body Re-entry Analysis-Mid lift to drag ratio Rigid Vehicle (Cobra–MRV), Adaptive Deployable Entry and Placement Technology (ADEPT), Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD), and Capsule concepts. Two variants of the HIAD concept are studied, one with a single HIAD heatshield and one with two HIADs. The study presents the development and production cost of each vehicle and the total cost to build five flight units and fifteen flight units. Five flight units is representative of a single mission, or a "Flags and Footprints" style campaign, whereas fifteen flight units is representative of multiple missions going to multiple sites on Mars. All costs presented in this work are normalized to the average of the first unit production cost of the lander concepts. There is a large amount of uncertainty both in the design of the vehicles and the cost of the vehicles and it is impossible to claim with certainty which vehicle will cost the least. However, it is likely that the total cost to produce five flight units will be in the following ranking from least costly to most costly, Single HIAD, Capsule, Dual HIAD, Cobra, ADEPT. The ranking for fifteen units is similar but with the positions of the Dual HIAD and Cobra reversed. This study only considers the cost of the entry vehicle and does not take into account the effect of the entry vehicle’s mass on the cost of the in-space propulsion stage or launch vehicle.

Paul D Friz↗
NASA NTRS1998

Macroeconomic Benefits of Low-Cost Reusable Launch Vehicles

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) initiated its Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Technology Program to provide information on the technical and commercial feasibility of single-stage to orbit (SSTO), fully-reusable launchers. Because RLVs would not depend on expendable hardware to achieve orbit, they could take better advantage of economies of scale than expendable launch vehicles (ELVs) that discard costly hardware on ascent. The X-33 experimental vehicle, a sub-orbital, 60%-scale prototype of Lockheed Martin's VentureStar SSTO RLV concept, is being built by Skunk Works for a 1999 first flight. If RLVs achieve prices to low-earth orbit of less than $1000 US per pound, they could hold promise for eliciting an elastic response from the launch services market. As opposed to the capture of existing market, this elastic market would represent new space-based industry businesses. These new opportunities would be created from the next tier of business concepts, such as space manufacturing and satellite servicing, that cannot earn a profit at today's launch prices but could when enabled by lower launch costs. New business creation contributes benefits to the US Government (USG) and the US economy through increases in tax revenues and employment. Assumptions about the costs and revenues of these new ventures, based on existing space-based and aeronautics sector businesses, can be used to estimate the macroeconomic benefits provided by new businesses. This paper examines these benefits and the flight prices and rates that may be required to enable these new space industries.

Shaw, Eric J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Low Cost Large Core Vehicle Structures Assessment

Boeing Information, Space, and Defense Systems executed a Low Cost Large Core Vehicle Structures Assessment (LCLCVSA) under contract to NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) between November 1997 and March 1998. NASA is interested in a low-cost launch vehicle, code named Magnum, to place heavy payloads into low earth orbit for missions such as a manned mission to Mars, a Next Generation Space Telescope, a lunar-based telescope, the Air Force's proposed space based laser, and large commercial satellites. In this study, structural concepts with the potential to reduce fabrication costs were evaluated in application to the Magnum Launch Vehicle (MLV) and the Liquid Fly Back Booster (LFBB) shuttle upgrade program. Seventeen concepts were qualitatively evaluated to select four concepts for more in-depth study. The four structural concepts selected were: an aluminum-lithium monocoque structure, an aluminum-lithium machined isogrid structure, a unitized composite sandwich structure, and a unitized composite grid structure. These were compared against a baseline concept based on the Space Shuttle External Tank (ET) construction. It was found that unitized composite structures offer significant cost and weight benefits to MLV structures. The limited study of application to LFBB structures indicated lower, but still significant benefits. Technology and facilities development roadmaps to prepare the approaches studied for application to MLV and LFBB were constructed. It was found that the cost and schedule to develop these approaches were in line with both MLV and LFBB development schedules. Current Government and Boeing programs which address elements of the development of the technologies identified are underway. It is recommended that NASA devote resources in a timely fashion to address the specific elements related to MLV and LFBB structures.

Hahn, Steven E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

On-orbit assembly/servicing task definition study

The OEXP vehicles being envisioned to carry out the Presidential space goals of a lunar outpost and human exploration of Mars will require on-orbit assembly, refurbishment, checkout, and launch. The On-orbit Assembly/Servicing Task Definition Study applies the space vehicle processing experience and procedures archives resident at NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC) to determine the task flows, and resources/facilities necessary to process the OEXP vehicles at Space Station Freedom (SSF). This data base is examined to find the closest analogies to OEXP vehicle components and assembly/refurbishment tasks. Transition tables are generated to provide traceability from KSC hardware processing experience to analogous on-orbit processing of the OEXP vehicles. Iterations in which the task flows are broken down into realistic extravehicular activity (EVA) primitive subtasks and times, and to apply automation and robotic technology to reduce crew risks and minimize EVA time, will enhance the value and accuracy of the predicted flows. These processing scenarios and the resulting resource/facility requirements are used to determine impacts of SSF, resulting in change requests to SSF requirements for provision of 'hooks and scars' to evolve the assembly complete Space Station into a transportation node. Study results to date include assembly analysis of the Martin Marietta Phobos Gateway Vehicle, refurbishment analysis of the Martin Marietta Lunar Evolution Piloted and Cargo Vehicles, and assembly analysis of the Boeing Mars Evolution Vehicle. The results of this study will be accumulated into the vehicle processing operations data base for subsequent modeling, life cycle cost, vehicle growth, and SSF impact analysis.

Vargo, Rick↗