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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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36 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Baloxavir Resistance-Associated Substitutions on Influenza Virus Growth and Drug Susceptibility

Baloxavir marboxil (baloxavir) is a recently FDA-approved influenza virus polymerase acidic (PA) endonuclease inhibitor. Several PA substitutions have been demonstrated to confer reduced susceptibility to baloxavir; however, their impacts on measurements of antiviral drug susceptibility and replication capacity when present as a fraction of the viral population have not been established. We generated recombinant A/California/04/09 (H1N1)-like viruses (IAV) with PA I38L, I38T, or E199D substitutions and B/Victoria/504/2000-like virus (IBV) with PA I38T. These substitutions reduced baloxavir susceptibility by 15.3-, 72.3-, 5.4-, and 54.5-fold, respectively, when tested in normal human bronchial epithelial (NHBE) cells. We then assessed the replication kinetics, polymerase activity, and baloxavir susceptibility of the wild-type:mutant (WT:MUT) virus mixtures in NHBE cells. The percentage of MUT relative to WT virus necessary to detect reduced baloxavir susceptibility in phenotypic assays ranged from 10% (IBV I38T) to 92% (IAV E199D). While I38T did not alter IAV replication kinetics or polymerase activity, IAV PA I38L and E199D MUTs and the IBV PA I38T MUT exhibited reduced replication levels and significantly altered polymerase activity. Differences in replication were detectable when the MUTs comprised ≥90%, ≥90%, or ≥75% of the population, respectively. Here, droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) and next-generation sequencing (NGS) analyses showed that WT viruses generally outcompeted the respective MUTs after multiple replication cycles and serial passaging in NHBE cells when initial mixtures contained ≥50% of the WT viruses; however, we also identified potential compensatory substitutions (IAV PA D394N and IBV PA E329G) that emerged and appeared to improve the replication capacity of baloxavir-resistant virus in cell culture.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rapid Construction of an Infectious Clone of the Zika Virus, Strain ZKC2

Zika virus (ZIKV) has had detrimental effects on global public health in recent years. This is because the management of the disease has been limited, in part because its pathogenic mechanisms are not yet completely understood. Infectious clones are an important tool that utilize reverse genetics; these can be used to modify the ZIKV genomic RNA at the DNA level. A homologous recombination clone was used to construct pWSK29, a low copy plasmid that contained sequences for a T7 promoter, the whole genome of ZIKV ZKC2 strain, and a hepatitis delta virus ribozyme. High fidelity PCR was then used to amplify the T7 transcription template. The transcript was then transfected into susceptible cells via lipofection to recover the ZIKV ZKC2 strain. Finally, the virulence of rZKC2 was evaluated both in vitro and in vivo . The rZKC2 was successfully obtained and it showed the same virulence as its parent, the ZIKV ZKC2 strain (pZKC2), both in vitro and in vivo . The 3730 (NS2A-D62G) mutation site was identified as being important, since it had significant impacts on rZKC2 recovery. The 4015 (NS2A, A157V) mutation may reduce virus production by increasing the interferon type I response. In this study, one of the earliest strains of ZIKV that was imported into China was used for infectious clone construction and one possible site for antiviral medication development was discovered. The use of homologous recombination clones, of PCR products as templates for T7 transcription, and of lipofection for large RNA transfection could increase the efficiency of infectious clone construction. Our infectious clone provides an effective tool which can be used to explore the life cycle and medical treatment of ZIKV.

Qin, Zhiran↗
DOE OSTI2020

Aedes aegypti Odorant Binding Protein 22 selectively binds fatty acids through a conformational change in its C-terminal tail

Aedes aegypti is the primary vector for transmission of Dengue, Zika and chikungunya viruses. Previously it was shown that Dengue virus infection of the mosquito led to an in increased expression of the odorant binding protein 22 (AeOBP22) within the mosquito salivary gland and that siRNA mediated knockdown of AeOBP22 led to reduced mosquito feeding behaviors. Insect OBPs are implicated in the perception, storage and transport of chemosensory signaling molecules including air-borne odorants and pheromones. AeOBP22 is unusual as it is additionally expressed in multiple tissues, including the antenna, the male reproductive glands and is transferred to females during reproduction, indicating multiple roles in the mosquito life cycle. However, it is unclear what role it plays in these tissues and what ligands it interacts with. Here we present solution and X-ray crystallographic studies that indicate a potential role of AeOBP22 binding to fatty acids, and that the specifcity for longer chain fatty acids is regulated by a conformational change in the C-terminal tail that leads to creation of an enlarged binding cavity that enhances binding afnity. This study sheds light onto the native ligands for AeOBP22 and provides insight into its potential functions in diferent tissues.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial and temporal metagenomics of river compartments reveals viral community dynamics in an urban impacted stream

Although river ecosystems constitute a small fraction of Earth’s total area, they are critical modulators of microbially and virally orchestrated global biogeochemical cycles. However, most studies either use data that is not spatially resolved or is collected at timepoints that do not reflect the short life cycles of microorganisms. To address this gap, we assessed how viral and microbial communities change over a 48-hour period by sampling surface water and pore water compartments of the wastewater-impacted River Erpe in Germany. We sampled every 3 hours resulting in 32 samples for which we obtained metagenomes along with geochemical and metabolite measurements. From our metagenomes, we identified 6,500 viral and 1,033 microbial metagenome assembled genomes (MAGs) and found distinct community membership and abundance associated with each river compartment (e.g., Competibacteraceae in surfacewater and Sulfurimonadaceae in pore water). We show that 17% of our viral MAGs clustered to viruses from other ecosystems like wastewater treatment plants and rivers. Our results also indicated that 70% of the viral community was persistent in surface waters, whereas only 13% were persistent in the pore waters taken from the hyporheic zone. Finally, we predicted linkages between 73 viral genomes and 38 microbial genomes. These putatively linked hosts included members of the Competibacteraceae, which we suggest are potential contributors to river carbon and nitrogen cycling via denitrification and nitrogen fixation. Together, these findings demonstrate that members of the surface water microbiome from this urban river are stable over multiple diurnal cycles. These temporal insights raise important considerations for ecosystem models attempting to constrain dynamics of river biogeochemical cycles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sequential membrane- and protein-bound organelles compartmentalize genomes during phage infection

Many eukaryotic viruses require membrane-bound compartments for replication, but no such organelles are known to be formed by prokaryotic viruses. Bacteriophages of the Chimalliviridae family sequester their genomes within a phage-generated organelle, the phage nucleus, which is enclosed by a lattice of the viral protein ChmA. We show that inhibiting phage nucleus formation arrests infections at an early stage in which the injected phage genome is enclosed within a membrane-bound early phage infection (EPI) vesicle. Early phage genes are expressed from the EPI vesicle, demonstrating its functionality as a prokaryotic, transcriptionally active, membrane-bound organelle. We also show that the phage nucleus is essential, with genome replication beginning after the injected DNA is transferred from the EPI vesicle to the phage nucleus. Our results show that Chimalliviridae require two sophisticated subcellular compartments of distinct compositions and functions that facilitate successive stages of the viral life cycle.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Genomics discovery of giant fungal viruses from subsurface oceanic crustal fluids

Abstract The oceanic igneous crust is a vast reservoir for microbial life, dominated by diverse and active bacteria, archaea, and fungi. Archaeal and bacterial viruses were previously detected in oceanic crustal fluids at the Juan de Fuca Ridge (JdFR). Here we report the discovery of two eukaryotic Nucleocytoviricota genomes from the same crustal fluids by sorting and sequencing single virions. Both genomes have a tRNATyr gene with an intron (20 bps) at the canonical position between nucleotide 37 and 38, a common feature in eukaryotic and archaeal tRNA genes with short introns (<100 bps), and fungal genes acquired through horizontal gene transfer (HGT) events. The dominance of Ascomycota fungi as the main eukaryotes in crustal fluids and the evidence for HGT point to these fungi as the putative hosts, making these the first putative fungi-Nucleocytoviricota specific association. Our study suggests active host-viral dynamics for the only eukaryotic group found in the subsurface oceanic crust and raises important questions about the impact of viral infection on the productivity and biogeochemical cycling in this ecosystem.

Bhattacharjee, Ananda S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Process-based Model with Temperature, Water, and Lab-derived Data Improves Predictions of Daily Culex pipiens/restuans Mosquito Density

While the number of human cases of mosquito-borne diseases has increased in North America in the last decade, accurate modeling of mosquito population density has remained a challenge. Longitudinal mosquito trap data over the many years needed for model calibration, and validation is relatively rare. In particular, capturing the relative changes in mosquito abundance across seasons is necessary for predicting the risk of disease spread as it varies from year to year. We developed a discrete, semi-stochastic, mechanistic process-based mosquito population model that captures life-cycle egg, larva, pupa, adult stages, and diapause for Culex pipiens (Diptera, Culicidae) and Culex restuans (Diptera, Culicidae) mosquito populations. This model combines known models for development and survival into a fully connected age-structured model that can reproduce mosquito population dynamics. Mosquito development through these stages is a function of time, temperature, daylight hours, and aquatic habitat availability. The time-dependent parameters are informed by both laboratory studies and mosquito trap data from the Greater Toronto Area. The model incorporates city-wide water-body gauge and precipitation data as a proxy for aquatic habitat. This approach accounts for the nonlinear interaction of temperature and aquatic habitat variability on the mosquito life stages. We demonstrate that the full model predicts the yearly variations in mosquito populations better than a statistical model using the same data sources. This improvement in modeling mosquito abundance can help guide interventions for reducing mosquito abundance in mitigating mosquito-borne diseases like West Nile virus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lytic archaeal viruses infect abundant primary producers in Earth’s crust

The continental subsurface houses a major portion of life’s abundance and diversity, yet little is known about viruses infecting microbes that reside there. Here, we use a combination of metagenomics and virus-targeted direct-geneFISH (virusFISH) to show that highly abundant carbon-fixing organisms of the uncultivated genus Candidatus Altiarchaeum are frequent targets of previously unrecognized viruses in the deep subsurface. Analysis of CRISPR spacer matches display resistances of Ca. Altiarchaea against eight predicted viral clades, which show genomic relatedness across continents but little similarity to previously identified viruses. Based on metagenomic information, we tag and image a putatively viral genome rich in protospacers using fluorescence microscopy. VirusFISH reveals a lytic lifestyle of the respective virus and challenges previous predictions that lysogeny prevails as the dominant viral lifestyle in the subsurface. CRISPR development over time and imaging of 18 samples from one subsurface ecosystem suggest a sophisticated interplay of viral diversification and adapting CRISPR-mediated resistances of Ca. Altiarchaeum. We conclude that infections of primary producers with lytic viruses followed by cell lysis potentially jump-start heterotrophic carbon cycling in these subsurface ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of a rapid viability RT-PCR (RV-RT-PCR) method to detect infectious SARS-CoV-2 from swabs

Since the rapid onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, its causative virus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), continues to spread and increase the number of fatalities. To expedite studies on understanding potential surface transmission of the virus and to aid environmental epidemiological investigations, here we developed a rapid viability reverse transcriptase PCR (RV-RT-PCR) method that detects viable (infectious) SARS-CoV-2 from swab samples in <1 day compared to several days required by current gold-standard cell-culture-based methods. The method integrates cell-culture-based viral enrichment in a 96-well plate format with gene-specific RT-PCR-based analysis before and after sample incubation to determine the cycle threshold (C T ) difference (ΔC T ). An algorithm based on ΔC T ≥ 6 representing ~ 2-log or more increase in SARS-CoV-2 RNA following enrichment determines the presence of infectious virus. The RV-RT-PCR method with 2-hr viral infection and 9-hr post-infection incubation periods includes ultrafiltration to concentrate virions, resulting in detection of <50 SARS-CoV-2 virions in swab samples in 17 h (for a batch of 12 swabs), compared to days typically required by the cell-culture-based method. The SARS-CoV-2 RV-RT-PCR method may also be useful in clinical sample analysis and antiviral drug testing, and could serve as a model for developing rapid methods for other viruses of concern.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparing variability in diagnosis of upper respiratory tract infections in patients using syndromic, next generation sequencing, and PCR-based methods

Early and accurate diagnosis of respiratory pathogens and associated outbreaks can allow for the control of spread, epidemiological modeling, targeted treatment, and decision making–as is evident with the current COVID-19 pandemic. Many respiratory infections share common symptoms, making them difficult to diagnose using only syndromic presentation. Yet, with delays in getting reference laboratory tests and limited availability and poor sensitivity of point-of-care tests, syndromic diagnosis is the most-relied upon method in clinical practice today. Here, we examine the variability in diagnostic identification of respiratory infections during the annual infection cycle in northern New Mexico, by comparing syndromic diagnostics with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequencing-based methods, with the goal of assessing gaps in our current ability to identify respiratory pathogens. Of 97 individuals that presented with symptoms of respiratory infection, only 23 were positive for at least one RNA virus, as confirmed by sequencing. Whereas influenza virus (n = 7) was expected during this infection cycle, we also observed coronavirus (n = 7), respiratory syncytial virus (n = 8), parainfluenza virus (n = 4), and human metapneumovirus (n = 1) in individuals with respiratory infection symptoms. Four patients were coinfected with two viruses. In 21 individuals that tested positive using PCR, RNA sequencing completely matched in only 12 (57%) of these individuals. Few individuals (37.1%) were diagnosed to have an upper respiratory tract infection or viral syndrome by syndromic diagnostics, and the type of virus could only be distinguished in one patient. Thus, current syndromic diagnostic approaches fail to accurately identify respiratory pathogens associated with infection and are not suited to capture emerging threats in an accurate fashion. We conclude there is a critical and urgent need for layered agnostic diagnostics to track known and unknown pathogens at the point of care to control future outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Can N95 Respirators Be Reused after Disinfection? How Many Times?

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to a major shortage of N95 respirators, which are essential for protecting healthcare professionals and the general public who may come into contact with the virus. Thus, it is essential to determine how we can reuse respirators and other personal protective equipment in these urgent times. We investigated multiple commonly used disinfection schemes on media with particle filtration efficiency of 95%. Heating was recently found to inactivate the virus in solution within 5 min at 70 °C and is among the most scalable, user-friendly methods for viral disinfection. We found that heat (≤85 °C) under various humidities (≤100% relative humidity, RH) was the most promising, nondestructive method for the preservation of filtration properties in meltblown fabrics as well as N95-grade respirators. At 85 °C, 30% RH, we were able to perform 50 cycles of heat treatment without significant changes in the filtration efficiency. At low humidity or dry conditions, temperatures up to 100 °C were not found to alter the filtration efficiency significantly within 20 cycles of treatment. Ultraviolet (UV) irradiation was a secondary choice, which was able to withstand 10 cycles of treatment and showed small degradation by 20 cycles. However, UV can potentially impact the material strength and subsequent sealing of respirators. Finally, treatments involving liquids and vapors require caution, as steam, alcohol, and household bleach all may lead to degradation of the filtration efficiency, leaving the user vulnerable to the viral aerosols.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Trajectory of Growth of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Variants in Houston, Texas, January through May 2021, Based on 12,476 Genome Sequences

Certain genetic variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are of substantial concern because they may be more transmissible or detrimentally alter the pandemic course and disease features in individual patients. SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences from 12,476 patients in the Houston Methodist health care system diagnosed from January 1 through May 31, 2021 are reported here. Prevalence of the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant increased rapidly and caused 63% to 90% of new cases in the latter half of May. Eleven B.1.1.7 genomes had an E484K replacement in spike protein, a change also identified in other SARS-CoV-2 lineages. Compared with non–B.1.1.7-infected patients, individuals with B.1.1.7 had a significantly lower cycle threshold (a proxy for higher virus load) and significantly higher hospitalization rate. Other variants [eg, B.1.429 and B.1.427 (Epsilon), P.1 (Gamma), P.2 (Zeta), and R.1] also increased rapidly, although the magnitude was less than that in B.1.1.7. Twenty-two patients infected with B.1.617.1 (Kappa) or B.1.617.2 (Delta) variants had a high rate of hospitalization. Breakthrough cases (n = 207) in fully vaccinated patients were caused by a heterogeneous array of virus genotypes, including many not currently designated variants of interest or concern. Finally, in the aggregate, this study delineates the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in a major metropolitan area, documents B.1.1.7 as the major cause of new cases in Houston, TX, and heralds the arrival of B.1.617 variants in the metroplex.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

HSV ‐1 ICP0 dimer domain adopts a novel β‐barrel fold

Abstract Infected cell protein 0 (ICP0) is an immediate‐early regulatory protein of herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV‐1) that possesses E3 ubiquitin ligase activity. ICP0 transactivates viral genes, in part, through its C‐terminal dimer domain (residues 555–767). Deletion of this dimer domain results in reduced viral gene expression, lytic infection, and reactivation from latency. Since ICP0's dimer domain is associated with its transactivation activity and efficient viral replication, we wanted to determine the structure of this specific domain. The C‐terminus of ICP0 was purified from bacteria and analyzed by X‐ray crystallography to solve its structure. Each subunit or monomer in the ICP0 dimer is composed of nine β‐strands and two α‐helices. Interestingly, two adjacent β‐strands from one monomer “reach” into the adjacent subunit during dimer formation, generating two β‐barrel‐like structures. Additionally, crystallographic analyses indicate a tetramer structure is formed from two β‐strands of each dimer, creating a “stacking” of the β‐barrels. The structural protein database searches indicate the fold or structure adopted by the ICP0 dimer is novel. The dimer is held together by an extensive network of hydrogen bonds. Computational analyses reveal that ICP0 can either form a dimer or bind to SUMO1 via its C‐terminal SUMO‐interacting motifs but not both. Understanding the structure of the dimer domain will provide insights into the activities of ICP0 and, ultimately, the HSV‐1 life cycle.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation in Swine of a Recombinant Georgia 2010 African Swine Fever Virus Lacking the I8L Gene

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is the causative agent of African swine fever, a disease currently causing significant economic losses in Europe and Asia. Specifically, the highly virulent ASFV strain Georgia 2010 (ASFV-G) is producing disease outbreaks in this large geographical region. The ASFV genome encodes for over 150 genes, most of which are still not experimentally characterized. I8L is a highly conserved gene that has not been studied beyond its initial description as a virus ORF. Transcriptional analysis of swine macrophages infected with ASFV-G demonstrated that the I8L gene is transcribed early during the virus replication cycle. To assess the importance of I8L during ASFV-G replication in vitro and in vivo, as well as its role in virus virulence in domestic swine, we developed a recombinant virus lacking the I8L gene (ASFV-G-ΔI8L). Replication of ASFV-G-ΔI8L was similar to parental ASFV-G replication in primary swine macrophage cultures, suggesting that the I8L gene is not essential for ASFV-G replication in vitro. Similarly, replication of ASFV-G-ΔI8L in swine intramuscularly inoculated with 102 HAD50 displayed replication kinetics similar to ASFV-G. In addition, animals inoculated with ASFV-G-ΔI8L presented with a clinical disease indistinguishable from that induced by the same dose of the virulent parental ASFV-G isolate. We conclude that deletion of the I8L gene from ASFV-G does not affect virus replication in vitro or in vivo, nor changes the disease outcome in swine.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An ecological niche model to predict the geographic distribution of Haemagogus janthinomys, Dyar, 1921 a yellow fever and Mayaro virus vector, in South America

Yellow fever virus (YFV) has a long history of impacting human health in South America. Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an emerging arbovirus of public health concern in the Neotropics and its full impact is yet unknown. Both YFV and MAYV are primarily maintained via a sylvatic transmission cycle but can be opportunistically transmitted to humans by the bites of infected forest dwelling Haemagogus janthinomys Dyar, 1921. To better understand the potential risk of YFV and MAYV transmission to humans, a more detailed understanding of this vector species’ distribution is critical. This study compiled a comprehensive database of 177 unique Hg . janthinomys collection sites retrieved from the published literature, digitized museum specimens and publicly accessible mosquito surveillance data. Covariate analysis was performed to optimize a selection of environmental (topographic and bioclimatic) variables associated with predicting habitat suitability, and species distributions modelled across South America using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach. Our results indicate that suitable habitat for Hg . janthinomys can be found across forested regions of South America including the Atlantic forests and interior Amazon.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beneath the surface: Unsolved questions in soil virus ecology

Soil virus ecology is an exciting but still nascent field of research in soil microbiology. While there has been a recent surge in soil virus research studies, many fundamental questions remain unanswered, and a range of technical and bioinformatic challenges need to be overcome. In this perspective article, we present a series of key questions that highlight fruitful research areas for ongoing and future efforts. These include describing the challenges involved in understanding soil viral abundance and activity, spatiotemporal dynamics, life strategy prevalence, virus-mediated biogeochemical impacts, viral protein function, host prediction, and soil RNA virus discovery. In the near term, combining approaches (e.g., cultivation-based, meta-omics, biogeochemical, experimental, and bioinformatic) will be key to assessing the ecological and biogeochemical impacts of soil viruses from the microscopic to the field and global scales. Still, we stress that results must be tempered by current methodological limitations and highlight knowledge gaps that are most pressing to fill via new methods or measurements, such as the prevalence of different viral replication strategies across soils, the fate of microbial necromass carbon after viral lysis, the frequency of virus-host encounters that do not lead to successful infections yet could be bioinformatically mistaken as infections, and the diversity and ecological impacts of RNA viruses in soil.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Classical Swine Fever Virus Structural Glycoprotein E2 Interacts with Host Protein ACADM during the Virus Infectious Cycle

The E2 glycoprotein is one of the four structural proteins of the classical swine fever virus (CSFV) particle. E2 has been shown to be involved in many virus functions, including adsorption to host cells, virus virulence and interaction with several host proteins. Using a yeast two-hybrid screen, we have previously shown that the CSFV E2 specifically interacts with swine host protein medium-chain-specific acyl-Coenzyme A dehydrogenase (ACADM), an enzyme that catalyzes the initial step of the mitochondrial fatty acid beta-oxidation pathway. Here, we show that interaction between ACADM and E2 also happens in swine cells infected with CSFV using two different procedures: coimmunoprecipitation and a proximity ligation assay (PLA). In addition, the amino acid residues in E2 critically mediating the interaction with ACADM, M49 and P130 were identified via a reverse yeast two-hybrid screen using an expression library composed of randomly mutated versions of E2. A recombinant CSFV, E2ΔACADMv, harboring substitutions at residues M49I and P130Q in E2, was developed via reverse genomics from the highly virulent Brescia isolate. E2ΔACADMv was shown to have the same kinetics growth in swine primary macrophages and SK6 cell cultures as the parental Brescia strain. Similarly, E2ΔACADMv demonstrated a similar level of virulence when inoculated to domestic pigs as the parental Brescia. Animals intranasally inoculated with 10 5 TCID 50 developed a lethal form of clinical disease with virological and hematological kinetics changes undistinguishable from those produced by the parental strain. Therefore, interaction between CSFV E2 and host ACADM is not critically involved in the processes of virus replication and disease production.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence. Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans. We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of R 2 =0.61. Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels <23.3 mm/month as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables. We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗