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At least 37 records · Page 2

Starch depletion in the xylem and phloem ray parenchyma of grapevine stems under drought

Abstract While nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) storage can support long-lived woody plants during abiotic stress, the timing and extent of their use are less understood, as are the thresholds for cell mortality as NSCs and water supplies are consumed. Here, we combine physiological and imaging tools to study the response of Vitis riparia to a 6-week experimental drought. We focused on the spatial and temporal dynamics of starch consumption and cell viability in the xylem and phloem of the stem. Starch dynamics were further corroborated with enzymatic starch digestion and X-ray microcomputed tomography imaging. Starch depletion in the stems of droughted plants was detected after 2 weeks and continued over time. We observed distinct differences in starch content and cell viability in the xylem and phloem. By the end of the drought, nearly all the starch was consumed in the phloem ray parenchyma (98 % decrease), and there were almost no metabolically active cells in the phloem. In contrast, less starch was consumed in the xylem ray parenchyma (30 % decrease), and metabolically active cells remained in the ray and vessel-associated parenchyma in the xylem. Our data suggest that the higher proportion of living cells in the phloem and cambium, combined with smaller potential NSC storage area, rapidly depleted starch, which led to cell death. In contrast, the larger cross-sectional area of the xylem ray parenchyma with higher NSC storage and lower metabolically active cell populations depleted starch at a slower pace. Why NSC source-sink relationships between xylem and phloem do not allow for a more uniform depletion of starch in ray parenchyma over time is unclear. Our data help to pinpoint the proximate and ultimate causes of plant death during prolonged drought exposure and highlight the need to consider the influence of within-organ starch dynamics and cell mortality on abiotic stress response.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The role of height–driven constraints and compensations on tree vulnerability to drought

Frequent observations of higher mortality in larger trees than in smaller ones during droughts have sparked an increasing interest in size–dependent drought–induced mortality. However, the underlying physiological mechanisms are not well understood, with height–associated hydraulic constraints often being implied as the potential mechanism driving increased drought vulnerability. Here we performed a quantitative synthesis on how key traits that drive plant water and carbon economy change with tree height within species and assessed the implications that the different constraints and compensations may have on the interacting mechanisms (hydraulic failure, carbon starvation and/or biotic–agent attacks) affecting tree vulnerability to drought. While xylem tension increases with tree height, taller trees present a range of structural and functional adjustments, including more efficient water use and transport and greater water uptake and storage capacity, that mitigate the path–length–associated drop in water potential. These adaptations allow taller trees to withstand episodic water stress. Conclusive evidence for height–dependent increased vulnerability to hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, and their coupling to defence mechanisms and pest and pathogen dynamics, is still lacking. Further research is needed, particularly at the intraspecific level, to ascertain the specific conditions and thresholds above which height hinders tree survival under drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Xeric Tree Populations Exhibit Delayed Summer Depletion of Root Starch Relative to Mesic Counterparts

Research linking soil moisture availability to nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) storage suggests greater NSC reserves promote survival under acute water stress, but little is known about how NSC allocation responds to long-term differences in water availabilty. We hypothesized populations experiencing chronic or frequent water stress shift carbon allocation to build greater NSC reserves for increased survival probability during drought relative to populations rarely experiencing water stress. Over a year, we measured soluble sugar and starch concentrations from branches, stems, and coarse roots of mature Pinus palustris trees at two sites differing in long-term soil moisture availability. Xeric and mesic populations exhibited a cycle of summer depletion-winter accumulation in root starch. Xeric populations reached a maximum root starch concentration approximately 1–2 months later than mesic populations, indicating delayed summer depletion. Xeric and mesic populations reached the same minimum root starch at similar times, suggesting extended winter accumulation for xeric populations. These results suggest seasonal mobilization from root starch is compressed into a shorter interval for xeric populations instead of consistently greater reserves as hypothesized. Seasonal trends differed little between xeric and mesic populations for starch and sugars, suggesting the importance of roots in seasonal carbon dynamics and the primacy of starch for storage. If roots are the primary organ for longterm storage, then our results suggest that whole-plant mobilization and allocation respond to chronic differences in water availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing Multi-Step Reservoir Inflow Forecasting: A Time-Variant Encoder–Decoder Approach

Accurate reservoir inflow forecasting is vital for effective water resource management. Reliable forecasts enable operators to optimize storage and release strategies to meet competing sectoral demands—such as water supply, irrigation, and hydropower scheduling—while also mitigating flood and drought risks. To address this need, in this study, we propose a novel time-variant encoder–decoder (ED) model designed specifically to improve multi-step reservoir inflow forecasting, enabling accurate predictions of reservoir inflows up to seven days ahead. Unlike conventional ED-LSTM and recursive ED-LSTM models, which use fixed encoder parameters or recursively propagate predictions, our model incorporates an adaptive encoder structure that dynamically adjusts to evolving conditions at each forecast horizon. Additionally, we introduce the Expected Baseline Integrated Gradients (EB-IGs) method for variable importance analysis, enhancing interpretability of inflow by incorporating multiple baselines to capture a broader range of hydrometeorological conditions. The proposed methods are demonstrated at several diverse reservoirs across the United States. Our results show that they outperform traditional methods, particularly at longer lead times, while also offering insights into the key drivers of inflow forecasting. These advancements contribute to enhanced reservoir management through improved forecasting accuracy and practical decision-making insights under complex hydroclimatic conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Causes of Missing Snowmelt Following Drought

Abstract Water management in snowy mountainous regions hinges on forecasting snowmelt runoff. However, droughts are altering snowpack‐runoff relationships with ongoing debate about the driving mechanisms. For example, in 2021 in California, less than half of predicted streamflow arrived. Mechanisms proposed for this “missing” streamflow included changes in evapotranspiration ( ET ), rainfall, and subsurface moisture conditions. Here, we demonstrate that ET in drought years generates dry subsurface conditions that reduce runoff in subsequent years. A model including this legacy of depleted moisture storage reduced median error in 2021 forecasts from 60% to 20% at 15 minimally disturbed basins and from 18% to 2% at 6 water supply basins in the Sierra Nevada (basins range in area from 5 to 23,051 km 2 and mean annual precipitation from 814 to 1,549 mm). Our findings indicate that the relationship between snowpack and runoff will evolve as plant ecosystems respond to climate change and alter subsurface water storage dynamics.

Lapides, Dana A.↗

The Role of Bedrock Circulation Depth and Porosity in Mountain Streamflow Response to Prolonged Drought

Quantitative understanding is lacking on how the depth of active groundwater circulation in bedrock affects mountain streamflow response to a multi-year drought. We use an integrated hydrological model to explore the sensitivity of a variety of streamflow metrics to bedrock circulation depth and porosity under a plausible extreme drought scenario lasting up to 5 years. Endmember depth versus hydraulic conductivity relationships and porosity values for fractured crystalline rock are simulated. With drought, a deeper circulation system with higher drainable porosity more effectively buffers minimum flow and significantly limits perennial stream loss in comparison to a shallow circulation system. Streamflow buffering is accomplished through extensive groundwater storage loss. However, deeper circulation systems experience prolonged recovery from drought in comparison to storage-limited shallow systems. Research highlights the importance of characterizing the deeper bedrock hydrogeology in mountainous watersheds to better understand and predict drought impacts on stream ecosystem health and water resource sustainability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

No carbon storage in growth-limited trees in a semi-arid woodland

Plant survival depends on a balance between carbon supply and demand. When carbon supply becomes limited, plants buffer demand by using stored carbohydrates (sugar and starch). During drought, NSCs (non-structural carbohydrates) may accumulate if growth stops before photosynthesis. This expectation is pervasive, yet few studies have combined simultaneous measurements of drought, photosynthesis, growth, and carbon storage to test this. Using a field experiment with mature trees in a semi-arid woodland, we show that growth and photosynthesis slow in parallel as ψ pd declines, preventing carbon storage in two species of conifer (J. monosperma and P. edulis). During experimental drought, growth and photosynthesis were frequently co-limited. Our results point to an alternative perspective on how plants use carbon that views growth and photosynthesis as independent processes both regulated by water availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stress Testing California's Hydroclimatic Whiplash: Potential Challenges, Trade‐Offs and Adaptations in Water Management and Hydropower Generation

Abstract Inter‐annual precipitation in California is highly variable, and future projections indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydroclimatic “whiplash.” Understanding the implications of these shocks on California's water system and its degree of resiliency is critical from a planning perspective. Therefore, we quantify the resilience of reservoir services provided by water and hydropower systems in four basins in the western Sierra Nevada. Using downscaled runoff from 10 climate model outputs, we generated 200 synthetic hydrologic whiplash sequences of alternating dry and wet years to represent a wide range of extremes and transitional conditions used as inputs to a water system simulation model. Sequences were derived from upper (wet) and lower (dry) quintiles of future streamflow projections (2030–2060). Results show that carryover storage was negatively affected in all basins, particularly in those with lower storage capacity. All basins experienced negative impacts on hydropower generation, with losses ranging from 5% to nearly 90%. Reservoir sizes and inflexible operating rules are a particular challenge for flood control, as in extremely wet years spillage averaged nearly the annual basins' total discharge. The reliability of environmental flows and agricultural deliveries varied depending on the basin, intensity, and duration of whiplash sequences. Overall, wet years temporarily rebound negative drought effects, and greater storage capacity results in higher reliability and resiliency, and lesser volatility in services. We highlight potential policy changes to improve flexibility, increase resilience, and better equip managers to face challenges posed by whiplash while meeting human and environmental needs.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Impacts of Topography‐Driven Water Redistribution on Terrestrial Water Storage Change in California Through Ecosystem Responses

Abstract Lateral subsurface flow plays an essential role in sustaining the terrestrial ecosystem, but it is not explicitly represented in most Earth System Models. In this study, we implemented an explicit lateral saturated flow model into the E3SM land model (ELM). The model explicitly describes lateral flow in the saturated zone by representing, for each model grid, an idealized hillslope consisting of five hydrologically connected soil columns. We conducted three model experiments driven by 0.125° atmospheric forcing data during 1980–2015 over California using models of the default ELM, a modified version of ELM to enhance infiltration, and the model with the lateral saturated flow model. The simulated runoff, evapotranspiration, and terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from the three simulations were evaluated against available observations, and the model explicitly representing lateral flow performs best. The new model produces greater gridcell‐averaged evapotranspiration especially over the mountainous regions with moderate relief and seasonally dry climates. Most importantly, it improves the modeled seasonal variations, interannual variabilities, and the recent decadal decline of TWSA. Many of these improvements can be attributed to the enhanced ecosystem resilience to droughts as demonstrated by transpiration increases caused by lateral flow. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that subsurface runoff is most sensitive to the ratio between horizontal and vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity, followed by hillslope planforms (convergent, divergent, and uniform), number of columns, and lower boundary conditions. Future work should effectively characterize hillslopes in global models and explore the long‐term influences of lateral water movement on modeled biogeochemical cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Separating Oil-Water Mixtures Using Bump Arrays

Particle separation is an important process step across many fields. One technique being applied for separating solids such as blood components or sand particles from carrier fluids is the use of arrays of aligned posts called deterministic lateral arrays to bump particles to one side in the flow stream to enhance separation. This technique may be useful for separation of deformable particles. The ability to efficiently separate two-phase industrial (oil/water) mixtures is key for future use of valuable resources. Over 1 trillion gallons of petroleum production water could be reclaimed annually for reuse in the drought-ridden western US states. The ability to reclaim this petroleum production water may be critical for the Central High Plains (Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico). Trends in just the High Plains area already lost 20 to 25% of the irrigated farming area due to insufficient ground water storage to irrigate, and farmland losses are expected to grow to 40%. Proving this technology is key to reuse of petroleum production water for crop irrigation or to replace water from currently failing aquifers in rich agricultural lands of the Central High Plains. We conducted experiments applying mesofluidic separation for flowing two-phase (oil/water) mixtures. Experiments were conducted using oils of differing viscosities with water as the carrier fluid; separation was achieved over a range of oil-water concentrations. We describe the results of these experiments in this paper.

oil-water separation, micelle, droplet separation,↗

Impact of climate change on adaptive management decisions in the face of water scarcity

Reoccurring drought through the early 2000s has caused a serious water scarcity issue in the Colorado River Basin. Previous modeling studies have focused on the impact of climate change without considering the adaptive behaviors of farmers and under-utilized Indian water rights. Here, we use a coupled agent-based water resource model (ABM) to investigate how the adaptive decisions of farmers can affect water resource management under both climate change impacts and fully utilized Indian water right conditions. We used five General Circulation Model projections with RCP8.5 scenarios for the study. The results of farm-level decision-making showed different responses in irrigated areas that were changing due to climate change impact. While winter precipitation changes might partially explain the behavior changes, no specific pattern could be concluded based on their location. Also, farmers’ responses about annual water diversion showed more significant inter-year variation compared to irrigated areas. Basin-level metrics showed that climate change impacts will generally worsen water scarcity issues as measured in Navajo Reservoir storage, flow to Lake Powell, and instream flow requirement. But these basin-level water scarcity metrics cannot reflect individual farm-level impacts under climate change, which is why modeling the bottom-up management actions is necessary. When the under-utilized Indian water rights are fully used, it is more likely to trigger the shortage sharing agreement due to the higher tribal water depletion. Evaluation of model uncertainty and a more realistic setup for adaptive actions under drought contingency plans are suggested for future research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Glen Canyon Generation Loss

Colorado River Basin hydropower generation has faced challenges due to droughts and ecological and social water requirements. Specifically, Glen Canyon hydropower generation fluctuates substantially with recent extreme weather trends. Further, the western grid evolves with higher wind and solar share, and Glen Canyon hydropower's contribution to grid flexibility services is essential. The Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) markets and schedules electricity production at GCD, and the loss of this power could have significant financial consequences for the WAPA Colorado River Storage Project's (CRSP) Office because it may need to purchase relatively large amounts of energy to serve its firm electrical obligations. In addition, GCD provides grid reliability services for the WAPA Colorado-Missouri (WACM) balancing authority (BA). Both WAPA and DOE's Water & Power Technology Office (WPTO) are interested in researching how these drier hydrological conditions will impact federal electrical energy production, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) power grid, and the value of hydropower in the face of lower production. We study multiple hydrologic and power grid scenarios to understand the grid impacts of the loss of Glen Canyon generation. The study uses a production cost model, water resources planning models, water-centric grid models, and various data analytic techniques. The study progress presentation discusses the selection of probable CRSP' hydropower scenarios and power grid scenarios to understand the impacts of Glen Canyon generation, which includes technologies that compensate the Glen Canyon energy and ancillary services contributions, transmission availability, and energy local marginal prices at interested grid locations of WAPA operation.

droughts↗

Seasonal decline in leaf photosynthesis in perennial switchgrass explained by sink limitations and water deficit

Leaf photosynthesis of perennial grasses usually decreases markedly from early to late summer, even when the canopy remains green and environmental conditions are favorable for photosynthesis. Understanding the physiological basis of this photosynthetic decline reveals the potential for yield improvement. We tested the association of seasonal photosynthetic decline in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) with water availability by comparing plants experiencing ambient rainfall with plants in a rainfall exclusion experiment in Michigan, USA. For switchgrass exposed to ambient rainfall, daily net CO 2 assimilation ( A' net ) declined from 0.9 mol CO 2 m -2 day -1 in early summer to 0.43 mol CO 2 m -2 day -1 in late summer (53% reduction; P<0.0001). Under rainfall exclusion shelters, soil water content was 73% lower and A' net was 12% and 26% lower in July and September, respectively, compared to those of the rainfed plants. Despite these differences, the seasonal photosynthetic decline was similar in the season-long rainfall exclusion compared to the rainfed plants; A' net in switchgrass under the shelters declined from 0.85 mol CO 2 m -2 day -1 in early summer to 0.39 mol CO 2 m -2 day -1 (54% reduction; P<0.0001) in late summer. These results suggest that while water deficit limited A' net late in the season, abundant late-season rainfalls were not enough to restore A' net in the rainfed plants to early-summer values suggesting water deficit was not the sole driver of the decline. Alongside change in photosynthesis, starch in the rhizomes increased 4-fold (P<0.0001) and stabilized when leaf photosynthesis reached constant low values. Additionally, water limitation under shelters had no negative effects on the timing of rhizome starch accumulation, and rhizome starch content increased ~6-fold. These results showed that rhizomes also affect leaf photosynthesis during the growing season. Towards the end of the growing season, when vegetative growth is completed and rhizome reserves are filled, diminishing rhizome sink activity likely explained the observed photosynthetic declines in plants under both ambient and reduced water availability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗

Subsurface Biogeochemical Research: Watershed System Science for Energy

The Subsurface Biogeochemical Research (SBR) program within the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Biological and Environmental Research is strategically aligned with DOE’s mission to ensure U.S. security and prosperity through watershed system science. Water resources critical for energy production are under pressure from growing water demand, contamination, drought, flooding, and saltwater intrusion. Sustainable management of watershed systems and their coupling with the built environment rely on understanding the hydrological and biogeochemical processes that control watershed system dynamics and water availability and quality. Next-generation science-based models of watershed systems are needed to address many U.S. energy and environmental challenges, including contaminant cleanup, clean water availability, safe storage of energy and nuclear byproducts in the subsurface, nutrient availability for sustainable biofuel crops, and recovery of subsurface energy resources.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Inferred inflow forecast horizons guiding reservoir release decisions across the United States

Abstract. Medium- to long-range forecasts often guide reservoir release decisions to support water management objectives, including mitigating flood and drought risks. While there is a burgeoning field of science targeted at improving forecast products and associated decision support models, data describing how and when forecasts are applied in practice remain undeveloped. This lack of knowledge may prevent hydrological modelers from developing accurate reservoir release schemes for large-scale, distributed hydrology models that are increasingly used to assess the vulnerabilities of large regions to hydrological stress. We address this issue by estimating seasonally varying, regulated inflow forecast horizons used in the operations of more than 300 dams throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). For each dam, we take actual forward observed inflows (perfect foresight) as a proxy for forecasted flows available to the operator and then identify for each week of the year the forward horizon that best explains the release decisions taken. Resulting “horizon curves” specify for each dam the inferred inflow forecast horizon as a function of the week of the water year. These curves are analyzed for strength of evidence for contribution of medium- to long-range forecasts in decision making. We use random forest classification to estimate that approximately 80 % of large dams and reservoirs in the US (1553±50 out of 1927 dams with at least 10 Mm3 storage capacity) adopt medium- to long-range inflow forecasts to inform release decisions during at least part of the water year. Long-range forecast horizons (more than 6 weeks ahead) are detected in the operations of reservoirs located in high-elevation regions of the western US, where snowpack information likely guides the release. A simulation exercise conducted on four key western US reservoirs indicates that forecast-informed models of reservoir operations may outperform models that neglect the horizon curve – including during flood and drought conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Leaf water potential measurements using the pressure chamber: Synthetic testing of assumptions towards best practices for precision and accuracy

Leaf water potential (ψ leaf ), typically measured using the pressure chamber, is the most important metric of plant water status, providing high theoretical value and information content for multiple applications in quantifying critical physiological processes including drought responses. Pressure chamber measurements of ψ leaf (ψ leafPC ) are most typical, yet, the practical complexity of the technique and of the underlying theory has led to ambiguous understanding of the conditions to optimize measurements. Consequently, specific techniques and precautions diversified across the global research community, raising questions of reliability and repeatability. Here, we surveyed specific methods of ψ leafPC from multiple laboratories, and synthesized experiments testing common assumptions and practices in ψ leafPC for diverse species: (i) the need for equilibration of previously transpiring leaves; (ii) leaf storage before measurement; (iii) the equilibration of ψ leaf for leaves on bagged branches of a range of dehydration; (iv) the equilibration of ψ leaf across the lamina for bagged leaves, and the accuracy of measuring leaves with artificially ‘elongated petioles’; (v) the need in ψ leaf measurements for bagging leaves and high humidity within the chamber; (vi) the need to avoid liquid water on leaf surfaces; (vii) the use of ‘pulse’ pressurization versus gradual pressurization; and (viii) variation among experimenters in ψ leafPC determination. Based on our findings we provide a best practice protocol to maximise accuracy, and provide recommendations for ongoing species-specific tests of important assumptions in future studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗