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Cooperation or Rivalry? Impact of alternative development pathways on India's long-term electricity generation and associated water demands

The world has witnessed a significant shift in the last decade in the way countries interact with each other. A cooperation based international paradigm is being challenged by countries engaging in rivalry with each other in the name of their national interests. What developmental pathway the world charts in the future is going to be path defining for global energy and emissions use. India, expected to play a critical role in the emissions mitigation debate, would contribute to and would be impacted by these pathways. In India specific literature, however, little attention has been paid to development pathways related uncertainties and their impact on energy futures. We seek to address this gap by modelling India's electricity futures and associated water demands under different development pathways. Our analysis shows that alternative development pathways would have significantly different implications for the energy access, electricity generation mix, associated water withdrawals, and carbon dioxide emissions in India. We conclude by arguing that energy, emissions and water policies should be conceived with an explicit understanding of uncertainties related to potential development pathways that the world and India can chart.

India, Electricity-Water Nexus, Development Pathwa↗

Water Recovery From Cooling Tower Plumes

According to studies by the UN and the US State Department, we are on the path to an extreme freshwater shortage by 2030. The US’s largest water withdrawal source is power plants, which account for 39% of total US freshwater withdrawals, mostly for cooling. Cooling towers are the most common cooling system. To solve these problems and enable efficient water- based cooling – Infinite Cooling’s novel technology uses electric fields to ionize the air, charge the escaping water leaving cooling towers and direct the water toward mesh collectors where it collects and gets recycled for use in the cooling system. This technology was developed at MIT and was reduced to practice on a lab-scale prototype, and a prototype at the MIT Cogeneration Power Plant. This DOE award funded taking this technology from a lab-scale prototype to TRL 5 on an operating cooling tower in the field at the MIT Nuclear Research Laboratory. The funding helped to design and optimize an electrostatic plume collection system and test it in high-fidelity lab setting and in actual field conditions on a cooling tower. Throughout the award, Infinite Cooling investigated the formation of plumes on cooling towers, used that information to optimize the design, material and electrical properties of the collection device and quantified the collection yield via flow rate and water quality.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Analysis of Water-Energy Issues for Nuclear Power with Industry Perspective

The water-energy nexus is a dynamic, ever evolving challenge involving technological changes, regulatory updates, economic constraints, environmental issues, and political attributes. This report expands on a previous report that gave an initial assessment of the water-energy nexus challenges facing the U.S. commercial industry. This follow-up report provides analysis and insights from stakeholder interviews focusing on the issues faced by the U.S. commercial nuclear energy industry within the water-energy nexus space. This report updates and expand the “Cooling Water Issues and Opportunities at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants” This report includes analysis on water withdrawal and consumption by operating nuclear reactors, evolving policy risks that could impact the operation of the existing commercial nuclear fleet, implications of water markets, trading and water rights, the changing energy grid, progressing environmental risks (including analysis on the possible impact of climate change on water availability and nuclear power plant performance), and opportunities to reduce water related risk. The feedback from the stakeholders’ interviews helps incorporate viewpoints from within the nuclear and related industry that can lack representation in other research areas, without constituting a comprehensive opinion survey. Stakeholders interviewed include nuclear power plants operators, water treatment providers, developers, and vendors of reactor technologies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Redefining Net-Zero Water for Resilient Aquifers

Groundwater has long been a critical source of potable water, supplying one-third of all global water withdrawals and providing strategic reserves in times of drought (Konikow, 2012; Famiglietti, 2014). The risk in relying on groundwater is that it is often pumped at rates far greater than it can be naturally replenished. With increasing population and a changing climate, the depletion of potable water supplies has become an ever-growing concern (Srinivasan et al., 2012). Recently, the concept of “resilience” has been applied to groundwater, leaving many questions to be explored in terms of what resilience should mean for aquifers (Foster and MacDonald, 2014; Grönwall and Oduro-Kwarteng, 2017). The term is commonly used to indicate resilience to impacts of climate change specifically, but here we consider resilience in the context of more general water insecurity. Relatedly, the concept of “sustainable yield” has emerged in an attempt to determine a metric that can ensure the long-term resilience of groundwater systems, but the definition is fraught with inherent uncertainties and its quantification poses challenges (Rudestam and Langridge, 2014; Grönwall and Oduro-Kwarteng, 2017). At the heart of these concepts is a focus on sustainable management of aquifers. A sustainable approach to managing groundwater resources usually involves balancing long-term abstraction with the long-term recharge taking into account the needs for environmental flows and implementing drought-preparedness measures (Robins et al. 2006; Foster and MacDonald, 2014). At a high level, a sustainable balance of groundwater abstraction versus aquifer recharge may be considered “Net Zero” (NZ) or “Net Positive” (NP) in cases where recharge is equal to or in excess of abstraction, respectively. However, NZ/NP water management programs that address these concerns have varied definitions of compliance, which include considerations for the application at hand (ILFI, 2020; USGBC, 2020). Locations with high risk of low or poor water supply may be particularly interested in pursuing NZ/NP water. The AQUEDUCT Water Risk Atlas (World Resources Institute, 2019) indicates long-term availability, providing risk levels for quantity and quality of water at specific locations across the globe, for existing and predicted future conditions. This paper follows the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) NZ water definition adopted by the U.S. Army for use at their installations, including Army Reserve Centers (ARCs). This definition also relates to the U.S. Army’s current focus on water resilience, which includes short-term and long-term availability of water resources.

net zero water, HUC12, Saipan, American Samoa, Mau↗

Energy and economic impacts of U.S. federal energy and water conservation standards adopted from 1987 through 2024

This paper presents estimates of the key impacts of U.S. national energy and water conservation standards adopted from 1987 through 2024. The standards for consumer products, commercial and industrial equipment, lighting products, and plumbing products include those set by legislation as well as standards adopted by the Department of Energy (DOE) through rulemaking. In 2024 alone, these standards are estimated to have saved an estimated 6.0 quads of primary energy, which is equivalent to 6.5% of total U.S. energy consumption, and 1.7 trillion gallons of water, which is equivalent to approximately 12% of the annual water withdrawals for public supply in the U.S in 2015. The estimated reduction in CO 2 emissions associated with the standards in 2024 was 270 million metric tons, which is equivalent to 5.6% of total annual U.S. CO 2 emissions from energy consumption. The annual savings in operating costs for households and businesses totaled $\$$105 billion, and the average household saved $\$$576 in operating costs as a result of standards on residential appliances and plumbing products. The estimated cumulative past and future energy and water savings from these standards amount to 307 quads of energy and almost 53 trillion gallons of water. The estimated cumulative CO 2 emissions reduction from the standards come to 10.3 billion metric tons. Accounting for the increased upfront costs of more-efficient products and the energy and water cost savings over the products’ lifetime, the standards have a cumulative net present value of benefit of $\$$3.2 trillion using 3 percent discount rate and $\$$3.5 trillion using 7 percent discount rate when discounting past and future benefits to 2024.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

State-by-state energy-water-land-health impacts of the US net-zero emissions goal

As decisionmakers at various scales begin to design strategies to implement the US net-zero goal, a holistic understanding of its broader economic and sustainability implications at subnational scales is important to shape public support and facilitate implementation. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to explore four different pathways toward the US net-zero goal and investigate their energy-water-land-health implications at the state level. In this study, we show that achieving the net-zero goal implies significant capital turnover (170–200 billion USD/year capital investment and 16–29 billion USD/year stranded assets in the power sector), reduced water withdrawal (120–210 km 3 /year), avoided air pollution damages (220–300 billion USD/year), and expanded forests (300–500 thousand km 2 ). However, the economic and sustainability implications of achieving the net-zero goal at the state-level may not be correlated to a state's contribution to national emission reductions. Our study lays the foundations for a deeper understanding of the broader implications of the US net-zero goal to facilitate cost-effective and environmentally sustainable transitions toward that goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic in vivo monitoring of granum structural changes of Ctenanthe setosa (Roscoe) Eichler during drought stress and subsequent recovery

Investigating the effects of drought stress and subsequent recovery on the structure and function of chloroplasts is essential to understanding how plants adapt to environmental stressors. We investigated Ctenanthe setosa (Roscoe) Eichler, an ornamental plant that can tolerate prolonged drought periods (40 and 49 days of water withdrawal). Conventional biochemical, biophysical, physiological and (ultra)structural methods combined for the first time in a higher plant with in vivo small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) were used to characterize the alterations induced by drought stress and subsequent recovery. Upon drought stress, no significant changes occurred in the chloroplast ultrastructure, chlorophyll content, 77K fluorescence emission spectra and maximal quantum efficiency of PSII (Qy dark), but the actual quantum efficiency of PSII (Qy light) decreased, the amounts of PSI-LHCII complexes and PSII monomers declined, and that of PSII supercomplexes increased. Thickness of the leaf and of the adaxial hypodermis, chloroplast length and granum repeat distance (RD) values decreased upon drought stress, as shown by light microscopy and SANS, respectively. Because of the very slight (nm-range) changes in RD values, the large biological variability (significant differences in RD values among the leaves and studied leaf regions) and the invasive sampling required for this method, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) hardly showed significant differences. On the other side, in situ SANS analyses provided a unique insight in vivo into the fast structural recovery of the granum structure of drought-stressed leaves, which happened already 18 h after re-watering, while functional and biochemical recovery took place on a longer time scale.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change

Climate models project higher temperatures and a substantial net water deficit during the summer months over Germany until the end of the 21st century. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to changing weather and climate conditions. In this study, we examine the role of irrigation for potato yields as a climate change adaptation measure in Northeast Lower Saxony (Germany). The region represents the largest irrigated area in Germany and is one of the main growing areas of potatoes. We develop a statistical multivariate regression model to investigate whether regional climate and irrigation data at the monthly and county level are suitable to describe potato yield variability from 1978 to 2018. Irrigation is estimated based on the climatic water balance and crop water demand. These estimates are calibrated against irrigation data from local agencies to account for realistic monthly water withdrawals. We analyze future yield changes based on climate model projections for the 21st century and different irrigation scenarios. We find that the potato yield will decrease significantly by 18% on average until 2050 with climate projection uncertainty of ±6.4% under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5 and without irrigation. Irrigation at current levels could compensate for about 54% of these yield losses. Doubling the amount of irrigation minimizes yield losses by as much as 80%. Under the low (middle) emission scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5), potato yield are projected to decrease moderately by 4.5% ± 3.4% (5.4% ± 2.8%) with irrigation at current levels. We show that the yield losses mainly originate from higher temperatures during the summer. Our analysis indicates that the capacity of irrigation to minimize yield losses is limited. Strengthening climate change mitigation efforts may be more effective in preventing yield losses. However, the effect of elevated CO 2 might buffer the high yield losses, especially in RCP 8.5. The studies supports farmers and decision makers in assessing future risks in potato yields. It can guide policymakers in allocating economic resources to cope with climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Modeling the Economic and Environmental Impacts of Land Scarcity Under Deep Uncertainty

Abstract Land scarcity is increasing over time, driven by complex multisector dynamics. The impacts of land scarcity on the economy and environment are multi‐faceted and regional, so any action to convert land will contain inherent tradeoffs. These impacts are complicated by the deeply uncertain evolution of the various sectors influencing land scarcity. A need therefore exists to provide multi‐metric and multi‐sector assessments that are robust to myriad uncertainties. Land conservation effectively limits the supply of productive land, while biofuel consumption increases the demand and competition for that land, and how these dynamics individually and jointly propagate to economic and environmental impacts is an important open question. To address this, we adopt the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) that has representations of various important systems including the climate, macroeconomic, energy, agriculture and land, and water resources systems. Various scenarios of increased land demand (from biofuels) and decreased land supply (from conservation) under various socioeconomic scenarios drawn from the SSPs were simulated using GCAM. We find that while biofuel consumption and land conservation reduce carbon emissions, this comes at the cost of higher food prices, reduced crop production, and increased water withdrawals. Additionally, some regions experience these tradeoffs more severely than others and are more heavily impacted from the same biofuel mandate or by an additional percent of protected land. These and other findings highlight the importance of multisector modeling frameworks that capture many cross‐sector linkages, and acknowledge the important uncertainties confronting the human‐Earth system when making any analysis of land scarcity impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress based on IRRMIP results

Irrigation rapidly expanded during the 20 th century, affecting climate via water, energy, and biogeochemical changes. Previous assessments of these effects predominantly relied on a single Earth System Model, and therefore suffered from structural model uncertainties. Here we quantify the impacts of historical irrigation expansion on climate by analysing simulation results from six Earth system models participating in the Irrigation Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP). Results show that irrigation expansion causes a rapid increase in irrigation water withdrawal, which leads to less frequent 2-meter air temperature heat extremes across heavily irrigated areas (≥4 times less likely). However, due to the irrigation-induced increase in air humidity, the cooling effect of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress is less pronounced or even reversed, depending on the heat stress metric. In summary, this study indicates that irrigation deployment is not an efficient adaptation measure to escalating human heat stress under climate change, calling for carefully dealing with the increased exposure of local people to moist-heat stress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Agricultural impacts of sustainable water use in the United States

Abstract Governance measures such as restrictions on groundwater pumping and adjustments to sectoral water pricing have been suggested as response strategies to curtail recent increases in groundwater pumping and enhance sustainable water use. However, little is known about the impacts of such sustainability strategies. We investigate the implications of such measures, with the United States (U.S.) as an example. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with state-level details in the U.S., we find that the combination of these two governance measures can drastically alter agricultural production in the U.S. The Southwest stands to lose upwards of 25% of their total agricultural production, much of which is compensated for by production increases in river basins on the east coast of the U.S. The implementation of future sustainable water governance measures will require additional investments that allow farmers to maximize production while minimizing water withdrawals to avoid potentially detrimental revenue losses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing Steam-Side Heat Transfer via Microdroplet Ejection using Inorganic Coatings

During condensation of water on a superhydrophobic nanostructured surfaces, droplets coalesce and jump (droplet ejection) due to the release of excess surface energy. Meticulously designed nanostructured surfaces or coatings capable of droplet ejection can enhance heat transfer performance by easy removal of droplets during condensation. In the present work, the capabilities of the Nelumbo droplet ejection coatings technology currently used in commercial heat exchangers are explored and optimized for materials and conditions relevant to steam condensers. Specifically, this includes (1) adapting and optimizing the procedures and chemistries to deposit droplet ejecting coatings on materials used in the steam condenser, (2) testing of the heat transfer, durability, and fouling of the fabricated coatings under a variety of steam condenser relevant conditions, and (3) modeling of the impact of droplet dynamics and interfacial properties on heat transfer in steam condensers. We experimentally demonstrated that at low supersaturation conditions (S~1.02), developed superhydrophobic nanostructured surface gives a 40% higher peak heat transfer flux and a 17% higher peak overall heat transfer coefficient (U) with droplet ejection mechanism compared to the dropwise condensation mechanism on the same nanostructured surface. Though the experimentally observed droplet ejection mechanism was short-lived (~3 min) due to the limitation of the chiller to maintain a constant supersaturation condition in fabricated steam condenser. And large variations in water inlet temperature (+ to - 2 degrees C) caused flooding of nanostructure (Wenzel state) at higher supersaturation (S > or = 1.12). This is an important finding because typical supersaturation levels in field operation are over 1.8 and as such, either the flooding potential for these materials should be improved or operation at lower supersaturation may be required to maximize heat transfer efficiency. If supersaturation conditions can be maintained reliably in the steam condenser in addition to droplet ejection mechanism during condensation, this could provide a potential 2% reduction in water flow rate which equates to a savings of over 3900 gallons of water per minute for a 500 MW steam turbine and over $0.3MM savings annually given a 0.02 cent marginal water withdrawal cost. It is also worth noting that these savings are based on improvement of droplet ejection coatings over coatings capable of performing consistent dropwise mechanism in in-field surface condensers. Savings due to the droplet ejections coatings when compared to bare substrates could be much higher. Additionally, the present work provides the importance of steam condenser operating conditions and insights into the challenges in modeling the condensing droplet dynamics on surfaces.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Outlook on Industrial Requirements for Incorporating Nuclear Energy into Industrial Processes

There is an increasing interest globally and in the U.S. in decarbonizing heavy industrial processes which have large demands for heat and power. Currently these industries primarily use fossil fuels to meet these demands and they include: oil & gas, petroleum refining, chemicals and derivative products manufacturing, iron & steel production, polymers, ammonia and fertilizers, etc. The U.S. DOE Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program seeks to identify and analyze opportunities for integrating and substituting nuclear energy to fulfil these large heat and power demands in a cost competitive and sustainable manner while reducing carbon emissions of the processes by using clean nuclear power. Presently various representatives from a subset of these industrial companies have expressed interest in evaluating the options of integrating future advanced nuclear small modular reactors with their industries. This study is a scoping study to provide an outlook of industrial energy demands and the potential nuclear energy substitution potential. Future work will analyze in a more detailed manner the potential designs for coupling advanced nuclear reactors with various industries. The industrial processes of oil refining, methanol production, pulp and paper, ammonia and chlorine-alkali are described focusing on how heat and power is used within the facilities in the context of identifying nuclear substitution opportunities. The aim is to provide reliable, competitive, and sustainable energy that is clean while reducing carbon emissions and other environmental impacts such as water withdrawals, consumption, and contamination.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Thermal Integration of Advanced Nuclear Reactors with a Reference Refinery, Methanol Synthesis, and a Wood Pulp Plant (Rev.1)

The present report is intended to provide process flow diagrams (PFDs) and energy and mass balance data sheets for a U.S. industrial sector subset with which nuclear heat and power could be integrated—a subset that includes the oil refining, methanol and pulp and paper industries. Coupling options for integrating nuclear energy into these industries are quantitatively outlined for reference systems, and future work will extend this analysis in greater detail. Opportunities for integrating small modular nuclear reactors (SMNRs) were investigated for each of the industrial process configurations. Aspen HYSYS and Cycle-Tempo models for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor were developed to evaluate the proposed integration. This introductory evaluation provides a general description and assessment of the operating principles, reactor coolant core outlet temperature, and reactor size to be integrated with industry. The industrial processes of oil refining and the production of methanol, pulp and paper were simulated by using Aspen HYSYS, Aspen Plus, and the PRELIM (Petroleum Refinery Life Cycle Inventory Model) tool to develop process details. Cycle-Tempo models then extend the process modeling results to obtain net energy demands (e.g., heat, steam, and electricity) when accounting for process steam and waste heat recovery. This information is intended to foster the analysis of integrating an SMNR to decarbonize industrial facilities. The SMNR would provide reliable, competitive, and sustainable clean energy while reducing carbon emissions and other environmental impacts, such as water withdrawals, consumption, and contamination. The refining industry, exhibited in Figure ES1, is a leading consumer of fossil -fuel-based heat, power, and hydrogen in the U.S. industrial sector, generating over 164 million metric tons (MMT) of CO 2 emissions in 2023. The overall mass and energy pertaining to a generalized complex refinery in the United States is reflected in Figure ES1, along with energy metrics regarding integration with a nuclear power plant (NPP). Data sheets were developed to indicate the energy requirements for the overall refinery and each refinery process. The data sheet for the overall refinery is shown in Table ES2.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Water balance model (WBM) v.1.0.0: a scalable gridded global hydrologic model with water-tracking functionality

Abstract. This paper describes the University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model, WBM, a process-based gridded global hydrologic model that simulates the land surface components of the global water cycle and includes water extraction for use in agriculture and domestic sectors. The WBM was first published in 1989; here, we describe the first fully open-source WBM version (v.1.0.0). Earlier descriptions of WBM methods provide the foundation for the most recent model version that is detailed here. We present an overview of the model functionality, utility, and evaluation of simulated global river discharge and irrigation water use. This new version adds a novel suite of water source tracking modules that enable the analysis of flow-path histories on water supply. A key feature of WBM v.1.0.0 is the ability to identify the partitioning of sources for each stock or flux within the model. Three different categories of tracking are available: (1) primary inputs of water to the surface of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle (liquid precipitation, snowmelt, glacier melt, and unsustainable groundwater); (2) water that has been extracted for human use and returned to the terrestrial hydrologic system; and (3) runoff originating from user-defined spatial land units. Such component tracking provides a more fully transparent model in that users can identify the underlying mechanisms generating the simulated behavior. We find that WBM v.1.0.0 simulates global river discharge and irrigation water withdrawals well, even with default parameter settings, and for the first time, we are able to show how the simulation arrives at these fluxes by using the novel tracking functions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global peak water limit of future groundwater withdrawals

Over the past 50 years, humans have extracted the Earth’s groundwater stocks at a steep rate, largely to fuel global agro-economic development. Given society’s growing reliance on groundwater, we explore ‘peak water limits’ to investigate whether, when and where humanity might reach peak groundwater extraction. Using an integrated global model of the coupled human–Earth system, we simulate groundwater withdrawals across 235 water basins under 900 future scenarios of global change over the twenty-first century. Here we find that global non-renewable groundwater withdrawals exhibit a distinct peak-and-decline signature, comparable to historical observations of other depletable resources (for example, minerals), in nearly all (98%) scenarios, peaking on average at 625 km 3 yr -1 around mid-century, followed by a decline through 2100. The peak and decline occur in about one-third (82) of basins, including 21 that may have already peaked, exposing about half (44%) of the global population to groundwater stress. Most of these basins are in countries with the highest current extraction rates, including the United States, Mexico, Pakistan, India, China, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Furthermore, these groundwater-dependent basins will probably face increasing costs of groundwater and food production, suggesting important implications for global agricultural trade and a diminished role for groundwater in meeting global water demands during the twenty-first century.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comparison of potential drinking water source contamination across one hundred U.S. cities

Abstract Drinking water supplies of cities are exposed to potential contamination arising from land use and other anthropogenic activities in local and distal source watersheds. Because water quality sampling surveys are often piecemeal, regionally inconsistent, and incomplete with respect to unregulated contaminants, the United States lacks a detailed comparison of potential source water contamination across all of its large cities. Here we combine national-scale geospatial datasets with hydrologic simulations to compute two metrics representing potential contamination of water supplies from point and nonpoint sources for over a hundred U.S. cities. We reveal enormous diversity in anthropogenic activities across watersheds with corresponding disparities in the potential contamination of drinking water supplies to cities. Approximately 5% of large cities rely on water that is composed primarily of runoff from non-pristine lands (e.g., agriculture, residential, industrial), while four-fifths of all large cities that withdraw surface water are exposed to treated wastewater in their supplies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗