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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Global Nitrogen Needs to Improve Wheat Yield Under Climate Change

Increasing global food demand will require more food production without further exceeding the planetary boundaries, while at the same time adapting to climate change. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models, with improved yield traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes to quantify potential yield gains and associated N requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved yield traits increased yield by 16% with current N fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential, a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil N availability and N use efficiency, along with yield potential.

Nitrogen↗
NASA NTRS1977

Application of wheat yield model to United States and India

The author has identified the following significant results. The wheat yield model was applied to the major wheat-growing areas of the US and India. In the US Great Plains, estimates from the winter and spring wheat models agreed closely with USDA-SRS values in years with the lowest yields, but underestimated in years with the highest yields. Application to the Eastern Plains and Northwest indicated the importance of cultural factors, as well as meteorological ones in the model. It also demonstrated that the model could be used, in conjunction with USDA-SRRS estimates, to estimate yield losses due to factors not included in the model, particularly diseases and freezes. A fixed crop calendar for India was built from a limited amount of available plot data from that country. Application of the yield model gave measurable evidence that yield variation from state to state was due to different mixes of levels of meteorological and cultural factors.

Feyerherm, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS1977

LACIE: Wheat yield models for the USSR

A quantitative model determining the relationship between weather conditions and wheat yield in the U.S.S.R. was studied to provide early reliable forecasts on the size of the U.S.S.R. wheat harvest. Separate models are developed for spring wheat and for winter. Differences in yield potential and responses to stress conditions and cultural improvements necessitate models for each class.

Sakamoto, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS1976

EarthSat spring wheat yield system test 1975, appendix 4

A computer system is presented which processes meteorological data from both ground observations and meteorologic satellites to define plant weather aspects on a four time per day basis. Plant growth stages are calculated and soil moisture profiles are defined by the system. The EarthSat system assesses plant stress and prepares forecasts of end-of-year yields. The system was used to forecast spring wheat yields in the upper Great Plains states. Hardware and software documentation is provided.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1977

Estimated winter wheat yield from crop growth predicted by LANDSAT

An evapotranspiration and growth model for winter wheat is reported. The inputs are daily solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation/irrigation and leaf area index. The meteorological data were obtained from National Weather Service while LAI was obtained from LANDSAT multispectral scanner. The output provides daily estimates of potential evapotranspiration, transpiration, evaporation, soil moisture (50 cm depth), percentage depletion, net photosynthesis and dry matter production. Winter wheat yields are correlated with transpiration and dry matter accumulation.

Kanemasu, E. T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impoverishing Roots Will Improve Wheat Yield and Profitability Through Increased Water and Nitrogen Use Efficiencies

We report that more than a 60% increase in crop production is required by the 2050's to feed a growing world population. Understanding how plant functional traits and field management affect crop yields has the potential to improve agricultural productivity, minimize economic and environmental losses, and maximize food security. We explored the influence of winter wheat root characteristics and management on winter wheat growth, yield, and profit using a mechanistic and well-tested ecosystem and crop model, ecosys. We applied and further tested ecosys at an agricultural farm growing winter wheat in Ardmore, Oklahoma, United States. The model accurately predicted observed shoot carbon (R 2 = 0.95), soil moisture (R 2 = 0.67), soil temperature (R 2 = 0.91), and yield (percent error = 17%). Numerical optimization experiments were conducted to explore potential improvements of winter wheat yield and profit by modifying root characteristics, including root radius and root:shoot carbon transfer conductance, and fertilizer inputs. Our results show the potential for simultaneously improving winter wheat yields and profits. The optimum conditions were found to be in the range of root radius between 0.1 and 0.3 mm, carbon transfer conductance between 0.004 and 0.01 h -1 , and the currently applied fertilizer rate of 112 kg ha -1 . Under these conditions, improvements in yields and profits of up to approximately 25% and 110%, respectively, were modeled compared to those under baseline root traits. These improvements were achieved by impoverishing root structures, thereby increasing nutrient allocation to grains. Our results also demonstrate and motivate model structures that integrate the complex network of plant physiology, soil nutrient biogeochemistry, hydrology, and management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Assimilating Remote Sensing Observations of Leaf Area Index and Soil Moisture for Wheat Yield Estimates: An Observing System Simulation Experiment

Observing system simulation experiments were used to investigate ensemble Bayesian state updating data assimilation of observations of leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture (theta) for the purpose of improving single-season wheat yield estimates with the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CropSim-Ceres model. Assimilation was conducted in an energy-limited environment and a water-limited environment. Modeling uncertainty was prescribed to weather inputs, soil parameters and initial conditions, and cultivar parameters and through perturbations to model state transition equations. The ensemble Kalman filter and the sequential importance resampling filter were tested for the ability to attenuate effects of these types of uncertainty on yield estimates. LAI and theta observations were synthesized according to characteristics of existing remote sensing data, and effects of observation error were tested. Results indicate that the potential for assimilation to improve end-of-season yield estimates is low. Limitations are due to a lack of root zone soil moisture information, error in LAI observations, and a lack of correlation between leaf and grain growth.

Nearing, Grey S.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Spatial Variations in Crop Growing Seasons Pivotal to Reproduce Global Fluctuations in Maize and Wheat Yields

Testing our understanding of crop yield responses to weather fluctuations at global scale is notoriously hampered by limited information about underlying management conditions, such as cultivar selection or fertilizer application. Here, we demonstrate that accounting for observed spatial variations in growing seasons increases the variance in reported national maize and wheat yield anomalies that can be explained by process-based model simulations from 34 to 58% and 47 to 54% across the 10 most weather-sensitive main producers, respectively. For maize, the increase in explanatory power is similar to the increase achieved by accounting for water stress, as compared to simulations assuming perfect water supply in both rainfed and irrigated agriculture. Representing water availability constraints in irrigation is of second-order importance. We improve the model’s explanatory power by better representing crops’ exposure to observed weather conditions, without modifying the weather response itself. This growing season adjustment now allows for a close reproduction of heat wave and drought impacts on crop yields.

Maize↗
NASA NTRS2017

A 30+ Year AVHRR Land Surface Reflectance Climate Data Record and Its Application to Wheat Yield Monitoring

The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor provides a unique global remote sensing dataset that ranges from the 1980's to the present. Over the years, several efforts have been made on the calibration of the different instruments to establish a consistent land surface reflectance time-series and to augment the AVHRR data record with data from other sensors such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). In this paper, we present a summary of all the corrections applied to the AVHRR Surface Reflectance and NDVI Version 4 Product, developed in the framework of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Data Record (CDR) program. These corrections result from assessment of the geo-location, improvement of the cloud masking and calibration monitoring. Additionally, we evaluate the performance of the surface reflectance over the AERONET sites by a cross-comparison with MODIS, which is an already validated product, and evaluation of a downstream Leaf Area Index (LAI) product. We demonstrate the utility of this long time-series by estimating the winter wheat yield over the USA. The methods developed by [1] and [2] are applied to both the MODIS and AVHRR data. Comparison of the results from both sensors during the MODIS-era shows the consistency of the dataset with similar errors of 10%. When applying the methods to AVHRR historical data from the 1980's, the results have errors equivalent to those derived from MODIS.

AVHRR↗
NASA NTRS1983

Large-area relation of Landsat MSS and NOAA-6 AVHRR spectral data to wheat yields

Landsat MSS data transformed into Kauth-Thomas greenness were averaged over 5 n.mi x 6 n.mi. sample segments from the U.S. Great Plains winter and spring wheat (Triticum aestivum) regions, and related by regression analysis to yields reported by county, crop reporting district (CRD) and state levels. Evidence of a linear relation between winter- and spring-wheat yields and Landsat spectral data at a broad scale is shown for 1978 and 1979. A common slope of about 1.6 (Bu/A)/unit greenness is discerned for the relation between yield and spectral greenness. Tests at both a smaller scale on sets of field-level spectal data and yield and at a large scale on 25 mi. x 25 mi. gridded spectral data from the NOAA-6 AVHRR sensor support the relation. The implications of these results to yield estimation from satellite spectral data are discussed.

Barnett, T. L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1,3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.

exhaust gases↗
NASA NTRS2017

Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change

Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (minus 2 to plus 9 degrees Centigrade) and precipitation (minus 50 to plus 50 percent). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.

Classification; Climate change; Crop model; Ensemb↗
NASA NTRS1977

Planting data and wheat yield models

The author has identified the following significant results. A variable date starter model for spring wheat depending on temperature was more precise than a fixed date model. The same conclusions for fall-planted wheat were not reached. If the largest and smallest of eight temperatures were used to estimate daily maximum and minimum temperatures; respectively, a 1-4 F bias would be introduced into these extremes. For Kansas, a reduction of 0.5 bushels/acre in the root-mean-square-error between model and SRS yields was achieved by a six fold increase (7 to 42) in the density of weather stations. An additional reduction of 0.3 b/A was achieved by incorporating losses due to rusts in the model.

Feyerherm, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS1982

The use of large-area spectral data in wheat yield estimation

Large-area relations between satellite spectral data and end-of-season crop yield were investigated. Green Index Number (GIN) values from Landsat MSS data of sample segments throughout the U.S. Great Plains winter wheat belt in 1978 were correlated to county USDA-SRS reported yields. A linear relation between GIN and yield appeared to exist up to GIN values of 40 or 50, covering cases of severe to moderate stress. In a test on 1978 Texas winter wheat at the county level, GIN values for sample segments in the counties were used in conjunction with an agronomic-meteorological yield model. The combined fit explained significantly more of the observed yield variation at the county level than the agromet model alone.

Barnett, T. L.↗
NASA NTRS1976

EarthSat spring wheat yield system test 1975

The results of an operational test of the EarthSat System during the period 1 June - 30 August 1975 over the spring wheat regions of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota are presented. The errors associated with each sub-element of the system during the operational test and the sensitivity of the complete system and each major functional sub-element of the system to the observed errors were evaluated. Evaluations and recommendations for future operational users of the system include: (1) changes in various system sub-elements, (2) changes in the yield model to affect improved accuracy, (3) changes in the number of geobased cells needed to develop an accurate aggregated yield estimate, (4) changes associated with the implementation of future operational satellites and data processing systems, and (5) detailed system documentation.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1979

The use of spectral data in wheat yield estimation - An assessment of techniques explored in LACIE

The object of the paper is to assess the results of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) and closely related research on yield estimation techniques based on remote sensing variables. The exploratory research conducted during LACIE substantiated the hypothesis of yield related information contained in Landsat multispectral scanner data and indicated some of its empirical characteristics. It is noted that leaf area and possibly other foliage features can be derived from spectral data for yield estimation through agrometeorological models and that multiple vegetative and grain related features may be discernable by Landsat derived wheat spectra at different points in the crop development.

Stuff, R. G.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast growing high-yield wheat and canola for efficient nutrient recycling systems

Wheat and canola are two major rotation crops in the U.S. each offering advantageous traits for the agricultural value chain. Canola, a dicot rotation crop, generally offers high seed oil content. Wheat, a monocot rotation crop, offers more cellulose and other nutritious carbohydrates. As rotation crops, traits such as rapid growth rates, increased harvest yields, and high quality (digestibility, deconstructability) are desirable for food, biorefinery, and also nutrient recycling for crop rotation. Improvement of such traits has been the goal of numerous biotechnology efforts. However, alternative biotechnology techniques are typically constitutive and when applied to commercial crops have resulted in net negative consequences. For example, efforts to improve quality by lowering lignin biosynthesis have resulted in plants with poor structural integrity and diminished mass at maturity. With supports by SBIR programs from DOE and USDA, JBEI/LBNL and AFINGEN previously demonstrated engineered healthy switchgrass and alfalfa which grew with 20-30% more fermentable sugar release, 25% less lignin, faster growth, and more biomass yields than control plants. In this CRADA project supported by NASA STTR program, AFINGEN again collaborated with JBEI/LBNL and transferred the simple tissue-targeting technology from the demonstrated switchgrass and alfalfa to the two major rotation crops wheat and canola for efficient nutrient recycling systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗