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At least 37 records · Page 2

Thermal advection and stratification effects on surface winds and the low level meridional mass transport

Statistical tests are performed on the Seasat scatterometer observations to examine if and to what degree thermal advection and stratification effects manifest themselves in these remotely sensed measurements of mean wind and wind stress over the ocean. On the basis of a two layer baroclinic boundary layer model which is presented, it is shown that the thermal advection and stratification of the entire boundary layer as well as the geostrophic forcing influence the modeled near surface wind and wind stress profiles. Evidence of diurnal variation in the stratification under barotropic conditions is found in the data, with the daytime marine boundary layer being more convective than its nighttime counterpart. The temporal and spacial sampling pattern of the satellite makes it impossible to recover the full diurnal cycle, however. The observed effects of the thermal advection are shown to be statistically significant during the day (and presumed more convective) hours, causing a systematic increase in the poleward transport of mass and heat. The statistical results are in a qualitative agreement with the model simulations and cannot be reproduced in randomized control tests.

Levy, Gad↗

Biomass Burning Smoke and Coincident Water Vapor Over the Southeast Atlantic Stratocumulus Region: Results from Observations and Models

In southern Africa, widespread agricultural fires produce substantial biomass burning (BB) emissions over the region. The seasonal smoke plumes associated with these emissions are then advected westward over the persistent stratocumulus cloud deck in the Southeast Atlantic (SEA) Ocean. We present airborne observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign over the SEA. Using multiple airborne datasets, we observe a strongly linear correlation between biomass burning indicators (carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol loading) and atmospheric water vapor content, seen at all altitudes above the boundary layer. This relationship was particularly strong in the 2016 observations, but was also present in the 2017 and 2018 deployments. Using ECMWF and MERRA-2 reanalyses and specialized WRF-Chem simulations, we trace the plume-vapor relationship to an initial humid, smoky continental source region, where it mixes with clean, dry upper-tropospheric air and then is subjected to conditions of strong westward advection, namely the South African Easterly Jet (AEJ-S). Our analysis indicates that airmasses likely left the continent with the same relationship between water vapor and carbon monoxide as was observed by aircraft. This linear relationship developed over the continent due to daytime convection within a deep continental boundary layer (up to ~5-6km) and mixing with higher-altitude air, which resulted in fairly consistent vertical gradients in CO and water vapor, decreasing with altitude and varying in time, but this water vapor does not originate as a product of the BB combustion itself. The smoky, humid mixed air is then subjected to strong zonal winds and advected over the SEA following largely isentropic trajectories. HYSPLIT back trajectories support this interpretation. With better understanding of this relationship, and its spatial and temporal variations, we are working towards accurately quantifying the radiative and dynamical effects of both aerosol and water vapor over this region.

Kristina Pistone↗

North Atlantic Surface Winds Examined as the Source of Warm Advection into Europe in Winter

When from the southwest, North Atlantic ocean surface winds are known to bring warm and moist airmasses into central Europe in winter. By tracing backward trajectories from western Europe, we establish that these airmasses originate in the southwestern North Atlantic, in the very warm regions of the Gulf Stream. Over the eastern North Atlantic, Lt the gateway to Europe, the ocean-surface winds changed directions in the second half of the XXth century, those from the northwest and from the southeast becoming so infrequent, that the direction from the southwest became even more dominant. For the January-to-March period, the strength of south-westerlies in this region, as well as in the source region, shows in the years 1948-1995 a significant increase, above 0.2 m/sec/ decade. Based on the sensitivity of the surface temperature in Europe, slightly more than 1 C for a 1m/sec increase in the southwesterly wind, found in the previous studies, the trend in the warm advection accounts for a large part of the warming in Europe established for this period in several reports. However, for the most recent years, 1996-2001, the positive trend in the southwesterly advection appears to be is broken, which is consistent with unseasonally cold events reported in Europe in those winters. This study had, some bearing on evaluating the respective roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Greenhouse Gas Global warming, GGG, in the strong winter warming observed for about half a century over the northern-latitude continents. Changes in the ocean-surface temperatures induced by GGG may have produced the dominant southwesterly direction of the North Atlantic winds. However, this implies a monotonically (apart from inherent interannual variability) increasing advection, and if the break in the trend which we observe after 1995 persists, this mechanism is counter-indicated. The 1948-1995 trend in the south-westerlies could then be considered to a large degree attributable to the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Otterman, J.↗

Optical variability and pigment biomass in the Sargasso Sea as determined using deep-sea optical mooring data

A 9-month time series of optical data, composed of three separate deployments, from the Biowatt 1987 deep-sea mooring located in the oligotrophic waters of the Sargasso Sea at 32 deg N, 70 deg W, is presented. These data were analyzed using several biooptical models for the purpose of providing a continuous estimate of the spectral diffuse attenuation coefficient and pigment biomass. Results of the first 70-day deployment demonstrate the utility of optical observations as proxy measures of biological parameters, and facilitate a preliminary analysis of the temporal variations and a comparison of the present biooptical observations with concurrent physical observations. Biooptical properties exhibit variation in response to physical forcings, such as diel variations of incident solar irradiance, episodic wind forcing, advective mesoscale eddy layer depth, and succession of phytoplankton. The mooring data are discussed in the context of contemporaneous shipboard observations as well as in terms of future ocean satellite observations.

Smith, R. C.↗

Visible and Infrared Radiative Relationships as Measured by Satellite and Lidar

The impact of cirrus clouds on the heat balance of the Earth is dependent on their reflectivity of solar radiation and their absorptivity of terrestrial radiation. Any prediction of cloud cover changes that accompany climate change will have to know whether the visible/IR radiative characteristics of the clouds will also change. Few measurements of cirrus clouds have been made where both visible and IR data were collected simultaneously. To obtain the visible optical depths of cirrus clouds, the High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) and the Volume Imaging Lidar (VIL) were used. The VIL produced visible backscatter images of the clouds by scanning across the wind. Time advection was used to construct a horizontal image of visible backscatter from the VIL data. The HSRL was used to calibrate the VIL signal into backscatter cross sections of particulates.

Wylie, Donald↗

The Evolution of Tropical Precipitation Patterns During ENSO Events Using 21+ Years of GPCP Merged Data

The ENSO phenomenon is characterized by fluctuations in the climate system of the tropical Pacific. Quantifying changes in the precipitation component of this system is important in understanding the distribution of heating in the atmosphere which drives the large-scale circulation and affects the weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. Monitoring precipitation anomalies in the Pacific is also an important component for tracking the evolution of ENSO. The most timely and complete observations of the earth come from satellite instruments. In this study, the state of the art satellite-gauge merged monthly precipitation data set from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to depict tropical rainfall patterns during ENSO events over the past two decades and quantify these patterns using indices. This analysis will be complemented by daily precipitation data which can resolve the Madden-Julian Oscillation and westerly wind burst events. The 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2000 La Nina were the best observed ENSO cycle in the historic record. Prior to the El Nino (in terms of anomalous warming of the east Pacific) dry anomalies over the Maritime Continent were observed in February 1997 as a westerly wind burst advected convection to the east. The largest SST anomalies occurred around November-December 1997, which were followed by the largest precipitation anomalies in the beginning of 1998. The largest precipitation departures from normal were not colocated with the SST anomalies, but were further west, In the spring of 1998 negative precipitation anomalies to the north of the equator intensified, signaling the mature phase of the El Nino. A rapid increase in the precipitation-based La Nina index from December-January 1998 to March-April 1998 signaled the coming La Nina. The 1982-1983 El Nino was comparable in strength (according to several indices) and the precipitation patterns evolved in a similar fashion. For the 1998-2000 La Nina, the coldest anomalies, were confined to the central equatorial Pacific, while the driest anomalies were found in the west Pacific,

Curtis, Scott↗

A Convective Vorticity Vector Associated With Tropical Convection: A 2D Cloud-Resolving Modeling Study

Although dry/moist potential vorticity is a useful physical quantity for meteorological analysis, it cannot be applied to the analysis of 2D simulations. A convective vorticity vector (CVV) is introduced in this study to analyze 2D cloud-resolving simulation data associated with 2D tropical convection. The cloud model is forced by the vertical velocity, zonal wind, horizontal advection, and sea surface temperature obtained from the TOGA COARE, and is integrated for a selected 10-day period. The CVV has zonal and vertical components in the 2D x-z frame. Analysis of zonally-averaged and mass-integrated quantities shows that the correlation coefficient between the vertical component of the CVV and the sum of the cloud hydrometeor mixing ratios is 0.81, whereas the correlation coefficient between the zonal component and the sum of the mixing ratios is only 0.18. This indicates that the vertical component of the CVV is closely associated with tropical convection. The tendency equation for the vertical component of the CVV is derived and the zonally-averaged and mass-integrated tendency budgets are analyzed. The tendency of the vertical component of the CVV is determined by the interaction between the vorticity and the zonal gradient of cloud heating. The results demonstrate that the vertical component of the CVV is a cloud-linked parameter and can be used to study tropical convection.

Gao, Shou-Ting↗

Ross Sea Polynyas: Response of Ice Concentration Retrievals to Large Areas of Thin Ice

For a 3-month period between May and July of 2005, we examine the response of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) Enhanced NASA Team 2 (NT2) and AMSR-E Bootstrap (ABA) ice concentration algorithms to large areas of thin ice of the Ross Sea polynyas. Coincident Envisat Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) coverage of the region during this period offers a detailed look at the development of the polynyas within several hundred kilometers of the ice front. The high-resolution imagery and derived ice motion fields show bands of polynya ice, covering up to approximately 105 km(sup 2) of the Ross Sea, that are associated with wind-forced advection. In this study, ice thickness from AMSR-E 36 GHz polarization information serves as the basis for examination of the response. The quality of the thickness of newly formed sea ice (<10 cm) from AMSR-E is first assessed with thickness estimates derived from ice surface temperatures from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. The effect of large areas of thin ice in lowering the ice concentration estimates from both NT2/ABA approaches is clearly demonstrated. Results show relatively robust relationships between retrieved ice concentrations and thin ice thickness estimates that differ between the two algorithms. These relationships define the approximate spatial coincidence of ice concentration and thickness isopleths. Using the 83% (ABA) and 91% (NT2) isopleths as polynya boundaries, we show that the computed coverage compares well with that using the estimated 10-cm thickness contour. The thin ice response characterized here suggests that in regions with polynyas, the retrieval results could be used to provide useful geophysical information, namely thickness and coverage.

algorithms↗

Bellingshausen Sea Ice Extent Recorded in an Antarctic Peninsula Ice Core

Annual net accumulation (A(sub n)) from the Bruce Plateau (BP) ice core retrieved from the Antarctic Peninsula exhibits a notable relationship with sea ice extent (SIE) in the Bellingshausen Sea. Over the satellite era, both BP A(sub n) and Bellingshausen SIE are influenced by large-scale climatic factors such as the Amundsen Sea Low, Southern Annular Mode, and Southern Oscillation. In addition to the direct response of BP A(sub n) to Bellingshausen SIE (e.g., more open water as a moisture source), these large-scale climate phenomena also link the BP and the Bellingshausen Sea indirectly such that they exhibit similar responses (e.g., northerly wind anomalies advect warm, moist air to the Antarctic Peninsula and neighboring Bellingshausen Sea, which reduces SIE and increases A(sub n)). Comparison with a time series of fast ice at South Orkney Islands reveals a relationship between BP A(sub n) and sea ice in the northern Weddell Sea that is relatively consistent over the twentieth century, except when it is modulated by atmospheric wave patterns described by the Trans-Polar Index. The trend of increasing accumulation on the Bruce Plateau since approximately 1970 agrees with other climate records and reconstructions in the region and suggests that the current rate of sea ice loss in the Bellingshausen Sea is unrivaled in the twentieth century.

sea ice↗

Spatial and Temporal Extrapolation of Disdrometer Size Distributions Based on a Lagrangian Trajectory Model of Falling Rain

Methodologies to improve disdrometer processing, loosely based on mathematical techniques common to the field of particle flow and fluid mechanics, are examined and tested. The inclusion of advection and vertical wind field estimates appear to produce significantly improved results in a Lagrangian hydrometeor trajectory model, in spite of very strict assumptions of noninteracting hydrometeors, constant vertical air velocity, and time independent advection during the scan time interval. Wind field data can be extracted from each radar elevation scan by plotting and analyzing reflectivity contours over the disdrometer site and by collecting the radar radial velocity data to obtain estimates of advection. Specific regions of disdrometer spectra (drop size versus time) often exhibit strong gravitational sorting signatures, from which estimates of vertical velocity can be extracted. These independent wind field estimates become inputs and initial conditions to the Lagrangian trajectory simulation of falling hydrometeors.

Lane, John E.↗

A case study of the effects of random errors in rawinsonde data on computations of ageostrophic winds

Data input for the AVE-SESAME I experiment are utilized to describe the effects of random errors in rawinsonde data on the computation of ageostrophic winds. Computer-generated random errors for wind direction and speed and temperature are introduced into the station soundings at 25 mb intervals from which isentropic data sets are created. Except for the isallobaric and the local wind tendency, all winds are computed for Apr. 10, 1979 at 2000 GMT. Divergence fields reveal that the isallobaric and inertial-geostrophic-advective divergences are less affected by rawinsonde random errors than the divergence of the local wind tendency or inertial-advective winds.

Moore, J. T.↗

A Wind-Driven Snow Redistribution Module for Alpine3d V3.3.0: Adaptations Designed for Downscaling Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance

Ice sheets gain mass via snow accumulation at the ice sheet surface, which is the primary component of surface mass balance. On the Antarctic ice sheet, winds redistribute snow resulting in surface mass balance that is variable in both space and time. Representing wind-driven snow redistribution processes in models is critical for local assessments of surface mass balance, repeat altimetry studies, and interpretation of ice core accumulation records. To this end, we have adapted Alpine3D, an existing distributed snow modeling framework, to downscale Antarctic surface mass balance to horizontal resolutions up to 1 km. In particular, we have introduced a new two-dimensional advection-based wind-driven snow redistribution module that is driven by an offline coupling between WindNinja, a wind downscaling model, and Alpine3D. We then show that large accumulation variability can be at least partially explained by terrain-induced wind speed variations which subsequently redistribute snow around rolling topography. By comparing Alpine3D to airborne-derived snow accumulation measurements within a testing domain over Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, we demonstrate that our Alpine3D downscaling approach improves surface mass balance estimates when compared to MERRA-2, a global atmospheric reanalysis which we use as atmospheric forcing. In particular, when compared to MERRA-2, Alpine3D reduces simulated surface mass balance root mean squared error by 23.4 mm w.e.yr−1 (13%) and increases variance explained by 24%. Despite these improvements, Alpine3D still underestimates observed accumulation variability, thus providing an opportunity for future model improvement.

Eric Keenan↗

On the structure of artificially generated water wave trains

The structure of an artificially generated sinusoidal water wave train of fixed frequency under the influence of wind is analyzed. Artificially generated waves of 1 Hz are studied at seven wind speeds in the range of 140-400 cm/s. It is observed that the water wave train deformed by wind consists of two components at both the fundamental mode and the harmonics. The amplitude and phase of the wave components are derived, and the dispersion relation and component phase speeds are examined. The data reveal that the amplitude of the forced and free-traveling second harmonics correlate with previous theories, and that the deviation of the measured phase speed from the linear theory is caused by the nonlinearity of the primary wave, the interaction between short gravity waves and the primary wave, and the advection effects of wind drift.

Papadimitrakis, Yiannis A.↗

Exploring the elevated water vapor signal associated with the free tropospheric biomass burning plume over the southeast Atlantic Ocean

In southern Africa, widespread agricultural fires produce substantial biomass burning (BB) emissions over the region. The seasonal smoke plumes associated with these emissions are then advected westward over the persistent stratocumulus cloud deck in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) Ocean, resulting in aerosol effects which vary with time and location. Much work has focused on the effects of these aerosol plumes, but previous studies have also described an elevated free tropospheric water vapor signal over the SEA. Water vapor influences climate in its own right, and it is especially important to consider atmospheric water vapor when quantifying aerosol-cloud interactions and aerosol radiative effects. Here we present airborne observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign over the SEA Ocean. In observations collected from multiple independent instruments on the NASA P-3 aircraft (from near-surface to 6-7 km), we observe a strongly linear correlation between pollution indicators (carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol loading) and atmospheric water vapor content, seen at all altitudes above the boundary layer. The focus of the current study is on the especially strong correlation observed during the ORACLES-2016 deployment (out of Walvis Bay, Namibia), but a similar relationship is also observed in the August 2017 and October 2018 ORACLES deployments. Using reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and specialized WRF-Chem simulations, we trace the plume-vapor relationship to an initial humid, smoky continental source region, where it mixes with clean, dry upper tropospheric air and then is subjected to conditions of strong westward advection, namely the southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S). Our analysis indicates that air masses likely left the continent with the same relationship between water vapor and carbon monoxide as was observed by aircraft. This linear relationship developed over the continent due to daytime convection within a deep continental boundary layer (up to ~5-6 km) and mixing with higher-altitude air, which resulted in fairly consistent vertical gradients in CO and water vapor, decreasing with altitude and varying in time, but this water vapor does not originate as a product of the BB combustion itself. Due to a combination of conditions and mixing between the smoky, moist continental boundary layer and the dry and fairly clean upper-troposphere air above (~6 km), the smoky, humid air is transported by strong zonal winds and then advected over the SEA (to the ORACLES flight region) following largely isentropic trajectories. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) back trajectories support this interpretation. This work thus gives insights into the conditions and processes which cause water vapor to covary with plume strength. Better understanding of this relationship, including how it varies spatially and temporally, is important to accurately quantify direct, semi-direct, and indirect aerosol effects over this region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring the Elevated Water Vapor Signal Associated With the Free Tropospheric Biomass Burning Plume Over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean

In southern Africa, widespread agricultural fires produce substantial biomass burning (BB) emissions over the region. The seasonal smoke plumes associated with these emissions are then advected westward over the persistent stratocumulus cloud deck in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) Ocean, resulting in aerosol effects which vary with time and location. Much work has focused on the effects of these aerosol plumes, but previous studies have also described an elevated free tropospheric water vapor signal over the SEA. Water vapor influences climate in its own right, and it is especially important to consider atmospheric water vapor when quantifying aerosol–cloud interactions and aerosol radiative effects. Here we present airborne observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign over the SEA Ocean. In observations collected from multiple independent instruments on the NASA P-3 aircraft (from near-surface to 6–7 km), we observe a strongly linear correlation between pollution indicators (carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol loading) and atmospheric water vapor content, seen at all altitudes above the boundary layer. The focus of the current study is on the especially strong correlation observed during the ORACLES-2016 deployment (out of Walvis Bay, Namibia), but a similar relationship is also observed in the August 2017 and October 2018 ORACLES deployments. Using reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and specialized WRF-Chem simulations, we trace the plume–vapor relationship to an initial humid, smoky continental source region, where it mixes with clean, dry upper tropospheric air and then is subjected to conditions of strong westward advection, namely the southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S). Our analysis indicates that air masses likely left the continent with the same relationship between water vapor and carbon monoxide as was observed by aircraft. This linear relationship developed over the continent due to daytime convection within a deep continental boundary layer (up to ∼5–6 km) and mixing with higher-altitude air, which resulted in fairly consistent vertical gradients in CO and water vapor, decreasing with altitude and varying in time, but this water vapor does not originate as a product of the BB combustion itself. Due to a combination of conditions and mixing between the smoky, moist continental boundary layer and the dry and fairly clean upper-troposphere air above (∼6 km), the smoky, humid air is transported by strong zonal winds and then advected over the SEA (to the ORACLES flight region) following largely isentropic trajectories. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) back trajectories support this interpretation. This work thus gives insights into the conditions and processes which cause water vapor to covary with plume strength. Better understanding of this relationship, including how it varies spatially and temporally, is important to accurately quantify direct, semi-direct, and indirect aerosol effects over this region.

Kristina Pistone↗

Improved Simulation of East Asian Summer Monsoon in the High-resolution CESM1 and Its Causes

Based on the high- and low-resolution Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), and corresponding simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we compare the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The EASM interannual variability is characterized by the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) circulation and the dipole rainfall pattern with a negative southern lobe over the western North Pacific and a positive northern lobe along the Meiyu–Baiu region, which is better reproduced by the high-resolution models. Here, the reason for the improvement in the high-resolution models has been attributed to the better simulation of the warm temperature advection from the wind anomalies on the climatological temperature gradient. Positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean are the key to the improved wind anomalies featuring a WNPAC in the high-resolution models. The warm SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean strengthen the WNPAC by triggering a Kelvin-wave response to the enhanced heat release induced by the increased precipitation. Based on the mixed-layer heat budget analysis, the warm SST anomalies over the western Indian Ocean in the high-resolution CESM1 are tied to the anomalous easterly wind along the equator, which reduces surface evaporation and upwelling. Therefore, the better simulations of air-sea feedback and the oceanic mesoscale eddy over the western Indian Ocean are the key for the improved simulation of the EASM interannual variations in the high-resolution CESM1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Examination of Water-Related Melt Processes in Arctic Snow on Tundra and Sea-Ice

From April through June in 2019 and 2022, we monitored snow melt at three sites near Utqiaġvik, Alaska. Along 200-m lines we measured snow depth, density, stratigraphy, snow-covered area, and spectral albedo. Site 1 (ARM) was sloped tundra drained by water tracks. Site 2 (BEO) was flat polygonal tundra. Site 3 (ICE) was on undeformed landfast sea ice. All three sites were within a 6 km radius. Despite similar pre-melt snow distributions and weather, the melt progression differed markedly between sites. In 2019, by mid-melt, there was 40% less snow-covered area at ARM versus ICE, and 34% less snow-covered area at ARM versus BEO. The 2022 melt started 2 weeks later than in 2019 and was rapid, so smaller differences in snow-covered areas developed. In both years meltout dates varied by up to 25 days between sites, and more than 20 days within sites, with melt rates at locations only meters apart differing by up to a factor of seven. This melt diachroneity led to highly heterogeneous meltout patterns at all three sites. Our measurements and observations indicate that, in addition to reductions in snow reflective properties and wind-driven heat advection, the fate of meltwater plays a key role in producing melt diachroneity. We identify seven snow-water mechanisms that can enhance or inhibit melt rates, all largely controlled by the local topography and the nature of the substrate. These mechanisms are important because the most rapid changes in albedo coincide with the peak of water-snow melt interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Hindcast Approach to Diagnosing the Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue SST Bias in CESM1

An ensemble seasonal hindcast approach is used to investigate the development of the equatorial Pacific Ocean cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias and its characteristic annual cycle in the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). In observations, eastern equatorial Pacific SSTs exhibit a warm phase during boreal spring and a cold phase during late boreal summer–autumn. The CESM1 climatology shows a cold bias during both warm and cold phases. In our hindcasts, the cold bias during the cold phase develops in less than 6 months, whereas the cold bias during the warm phase takes longer to emerge. The fast-developing cold-phase cold bias is associated with too-strong vertical advection and easterly wind stress over the eastern equatorial region. The antecedent boreal summer easterly wind anomalies also appear in atmosphere-only simulations, indicating that the errors are intrinsic to the atmosphere component. For the slower-developing warm-phase cold bias, we find that the too-cold SSTs over the equatorial region are associated with a slowly evolving upward displacement of subsurface ocean zonal currents and isotherms that can be traced to the ocean component.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗