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At least 37 records · Page 2

Wind and Weather Variability within the Californian Offshore Wind Energy Areas

Weather variability over the Northeast Pacific (NEP) region and its influence on wind resources within the Californian offshore wind energy areas (WEAs) at Humboldt and Morro Bay are characterized using 20-years reanalysis model and satellite data. The hub-height (180 m) winds at both locations are predominantly northwesterly driven by the NEP high pressure system, with strong coastal gradients in surface pressure, fluxes, planetary boundary layer (PBL) depths and cloudiness. These sharp coastal gradients and strong annual cycles of temperature and moisture advections pose potential challenges in accurately modeling the local wind resource. Hub-height wind speeds and power capacity factors significantly vary for different regimes of PBL depths, surface fluxes and rain area fractions. This highlights the importance of studying the physical mechanisms driving these weather regimes, hence our analysis of how large-scale NEP weather variability drives the local meteorology at the WEAs. Furthermore, at both WEAs, PBL tops and cloud boundaries intersect the rotor layer (80-280 m) more than 30% and 20% of the time, respectively. While PBL depths significantly modulates hub-height winds and power, cloud boundaries do not have a similar impact, likely due to reanalysis errors in simulating cloud boundaries accurately. These findings underscore the challenges in deploying tall wind turbines in shallow cloudy boundary layers, where the interaction between clouds, precipitation, and atmospheric layers can impact turbine efficiency. As turbines grow taller and are deployed in more complex meteorological conditions, understanding these interactions is crucial for improving wind power forecasting and optimizing energy production in coastal regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation for surface and hub-height wind climatology over North America

Assessing the availability of key wind resources requires augmenting observations to support the implementation of wind energy infrastructure. However, observations are limited, necessitating the development of high-resolution, long-term gridded datasets. This study presents a robust, dynamically downscaled climatological dataset, offering 20 years of hourly wind data at a 4 km spatial resolution across North America, and evaluates its performance against observations, including meteorological towers and automated surface-observing system (ASOS) stations, as well as coarse-resolution reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5)). Results demonstrate that the downscaled high-resolution wind data outperform ERA5 in regions of complex terrain and coastal areas, with improved overlap coefficients for wind data distributions and reduced root mean square errors (RMSEs) for hub-height and near-surface diurnal wind patterns. The downscaled simulation also captures the synoptic drivers of seasonal wind direction patterns reasonably well, indicated by high wind rose similarity indices. This study also provides an analysis of interannual variability, utilizing the dataset's full 20-year period, and model uncertainty, generated by varying model initial conditions and physics parameterizations across 1-year ensemble members, which are key considerations for wind resource assessment in wind farm development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Benchmarking Near-Surface Winds in the HRRR Analyses Using Multisource Observations over Complex Terrain in the Southeastern United States

Wind energy plays a crucial role in sustainable power generation, yet its full potential in the southeast United States (SEUS) remains underexplored. This study advances wind resource assessment in the SEUS using existing regional modeling and multisource observations. We find that terrain complexity, influenced by orography and forest canopy, significantly impacts the accuracy of modeled wind speed. While the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model effectively simulates wind profiles over flat, nonforested terrain, larger errors are produced above forest canopies, and particularly for those stands in hilly and mountainous terrain where there are no observations aloft that could be used by HRRR’s data assimilation software. Seasonal variations, e.g., changes in the leaf area index, further complicate the relationship between terrain complexity and simulation errors. Here, our findings emphasize the critical need for comprehensive wind profile measurements, extending from below the canopy to height above the canopy and through the lower planetary boundary layer, to fully quantify model performance over and near forests, and for improving wind resource assessment, planning, and management. This study provides valuable insights not only for further model development but also for future field campaign deployment with the goal of further improving our understanding of wind resources in the region.

Complex terrain↗

A Comparison of Pre‐Construction and Operational Wake Loss Estimates for Land‐Based Wind Plants

The overall bias between pre‐construction energy yield assessment (EYA) estimates of wind plant energy production and the achieved operational production is improving in the wind industry, but uncertainty remains high for individual wind plants. Wake effects within wind plants are one of the largest sources of energy loss considered in the EYA process, and previous work shows wake loss estimates to be a major source of disagreement among wind energy consultants who perform EYAs. To better understand the accuracy of wake loss predictions, we compare overall operational wake loss estimates based on supervisory control and data acquisition data to pre‐construction estimates provided by six wind energy consultants for five land‐based wind plants in North America. By augmenting existing approaches for quantifying operational wake losses, we estimate wake losses during the period of record for which operational data are available as well as the expected long‐term wake losses, based on historical reanalysis weather data, to which the EYA estimates are compared. To account for power variations at different turbine locations caused by terrain‐induced wind resource heterogeneity, we correct the operational wake loss estimates using predicted freestream wind speed variations from the Wind Systems Engineering Reynolds‐averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) tool. We identify long‐term corrected operational wake losses between 1.9% and 6.4% for the five plants, with a mean loss of 4%. For the project deemed most acceptable for operational wake loss assessment, which is located in the simplest terrain and isolated from neighboring plants, the mean EYA wake loss estimate is within 0.7 percentage points of the operational value of 6.4%. For most of the remaining plants, results suggest that wake losses are generally overpredicted by 2.6–6.3 percentage points. However, operational wake losses may be underestimated for many of these projects because of spatial wind resource variations not captured by the RANS model, external wake effects that are unaccounted for in the estimation process, and wind plant blockage effects. To better understand factors that contribute to the observed wake losses, we investigate operational wake losses as a function of wind direction and wind speed. As expected, wake losses are generally concentrated near wind directions that are aligned with rows of closely spaced turbines and at below‐rated wind speeds; however, for some projects, the energy produced by the wind plant exceeds the estimated potential energy of the plant without wake interactions for certain wind directions and wind speeds, suggesting inaccurate assumptions in the wake loss estimation method for those plants. Lastly, we compare predicted and operational wake losses for individual wind turbines, finding that even when overall wake losses are predicted accurately, large uncertainty exists at the turbine level.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Cost of Wind Energy Review: 2024 Edition [Slides]

The primary elements of this analysis include: Estimated LCOE for (1) a representative land-based wind energy project installed in a moderate wind resource in the United States, (2) a representative fixed-bottom offshore wind energy project installed in the U.S. North Atlantic, and (3) a representative floating offshore wind energy project installed off the U.S. Pacific Coast. It also updates the LCOE estimates for representative residential-, commercial-, and large-scale distributed wind projects installed in a moderate wind resource in the United States. A sensitivity analyses is included that shows the range of effects that basic LCOE variables could have on the cost of wind energy for land-based and offshore wind projects and provides updated Fiscal Year 2024 values for land-based and offshore wind energy used for Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) reporting and illustrated progress toward established GPRA targets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Offshore Wind Farm Turbine and Energy Storage Optimization

Abstract This paper evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of repurposing decommissioned offshore oil and gas platforms as electrical substations for offshore wind projects in the U.S. Gulf of America, a region characterized by relatively low and highly variable wind speeds, extensive legacy offshore infrastructure, and exposure to merchant electricity markets. A unified techno-economic framework is developed using the Repurposing Offshore Infrastructure for Continued Energy (ROICE) Economic Model (REM) to integrate Gulfspecific wind resource assessment, commercial wind turbine performance, offshore infrastructure cost modeling, and wholesale electricity market exposure. Gulf wind speed data are vertically extrapolated to turbine hub height and combined with manufacturer power curves to compute annual energy production and capacity factors across a broad portfolio of commercial turbines, enabling identification of turbine designs best suited for low-wind offshore environments. Hourly electricity price data from the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) day-ahead market are incorporated to characterize revenue potential, price volatility, and the temporal alignment between wind generation and market conditions. In addition, a conceptual framework for offshore battery energy storage system (BESS) integration is developed to support future investigation of market-responsive energy shifting at repurposed platforms. Results from the turbine evaluation demonstrate that machines with lower cut-in wind speeds and earlier ‘rated-power’ characteristics significantly outperform larger, industry-standard offshore turbines for the same net power under Gulf wind conditions, underscoring the need for region-specific technology selection. Market analysis further reveals substantial price variability and limited intrinsic alignment between wind production and high-price periods, motivating consideration of operational flexibility mechanisms. While storage optimization is not implemented in this study, the REM framework establishes a transparent and replicable foundation for co-evaluating turbine selection, infrastructure constraints, and market exposure, providing a practical pathway for assessing the potential role of repurposed offshore platforms in enabling economically viable offshore wind development in the Gulf of America.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A North Sea in Situ Evaluation of the Fitch Wind Farm Parameterization Within the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino and 3D Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes

Wind resource assessments and wind power forecasts that account for wind farm wakes are sensitive to the choice of planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. This work compares the one-dimensional Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) PBL scheme with a three-dimensional PBL (3DPBL) scheme, evaluating predictions made with both schemes against two sets of North Sea in situ observations of wind farm wakes. The optimal PBL scheme varies based on the observations (FINO1 tower vs. aircraft), the quantity of interest (wind speed vs. turbulence kinetic energy [TKE]), and the error metric (bias, centered root mean square error [cRMSE], R2, and earth mover's distance [EMD]). Whereas 3DPBL wind speeds outperform MYNN wind speeds with respect to the cRMSE at the FINO1 site located at a single point within the turbine rotor layer, 3DPBL TKE bias is larger than MYNN TKE bias when compared to aircraft observations taken 100 m above a wind farm. Wind speeds in the aircraft region are ambiguous with regard to which PBL scheme is optimal. Aircraft MYNN wind speeds outperform 3DPBL wind speeds with respect to R2 and cRMSE but underperform with respect to bias and EMD. Future evaluations across broader temporal and spatial scales may offer further insight into model differences.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23)

Abstract. This article introduces the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), which offers the latest wind resource information for offshore regions in the United States. NOW-23 supersedes, for its offshore component, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was published a decade ago and is currently a primary resource for wind resource assessments and grid integration studies in the contiguous United States. By incorporating advancements in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, NOW-23 delivers an updated and cutting-edge product to stakeholders. In this article, we present the new data set which underwent regional tuning and performance validation against available observations and has data available from 2000 through, depending on the region, 2019–2022. We also provide a summary of the uncertainty quantification in NOW-23, along with NOW-WAKES, a 1-year post-construction data set that quantifies expected offshore wake effects in the US Mid-Atlantic lease areas. Stakeholders can access the NOW-23 data set at https://doi.org/10.25984/1821404 (Bodini et al., 2020).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A novel approach for large-scale wind energy potential assessment

Increasing wind energy generation is central to grid decarbonization, yet methods to estimate wind energy potential are not standardized, leading to inconsistencies and even skewed results. This study aims to improve the fidelity of wind energy potential estimates through an approach that integrates geospatial analysis and machine learning (i.e., Gaussian process regression). We demonstrate this approach to assess the spatial distribution of wind energy capacity potential in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We find that the capacity-based power density ranges from 1.70 MW/km2 (25th percentile) to 3.88 MW/km2 (75th percentile) for existing wind farms in the CONUS. The value is lower in agricultural areas (2.73 ± 0.02 MW/km2, mean ± 95 % confidence interval) and higher in other land cover types (3.30 ± 0.03 MW/km2). Notably, advancements in turbine manufacturing could reduce power density in areas with lower wind speeds by adopting low specific-power turbines, but improve power density in areas with higher wind speeds (>8.35 m/s at 120m above the ground), highlighting opportunities for repowering existing wind farms. Wind energy potential is shaped by wind resource quality and is regionally characterized by land cover and physical conditions, revealing significant capacity potential in the Great Plains and Upper Texas. The results indicate that areas previously identified as hot spots using existing approaches (e.g., the west of the Rocky Mountains) may have a limited capacity potential due to low wind resource quality. Improvements in methodology and capacity potential estimates in this study could serve as a new basis for future energy systems analysis and planning.

Dai, Tao↗

Impact of atmospheric turbulence on performance and loads of wind turbines: knowledge gaps and research challenges

Wind energy harvesting from the atmosphere takes place in the atmospheric boundary layer. The boundary layer shear and buoyancy create three-dimensional turbulent eddies spanning a range of scales that form a continuous forward cascade of kinetic energy to the smallest scales of motion where energy is dissipated. Large-scale atmospheric circulations modulate the boundary layer turbulence, characterized by coherence and intermittency. As wind turbines grow in size and the integrated control of both turbines and wind farms spans greater distances, the relationship between the scales of atmospheric turbulence and the design and operation of wind energy facilities has entered new territory. The boundary layer turbulence impacts both wind turbine power production and turbine loads. Optimizing wind turbine and wind farm performance requires an understanding of how turbulence affects both wind turbine efficiency and reliability. While the characteristics of atmospheric boundary layer turbulence have been observed and studied in detail over the last few decades, there are still significant gaps in our understanding of the impact of turbulence on wind power resources and wind farm operations. This paper outlines the current state of turbulence research relevant to wind energy applications and points to gaps in our knowledge that need to be addressed to effectively utilize wind resources.

Kosović, Branko [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, M↗

Large-eddy simulation of an atmospheric bore and associated gravity wave effects on wind farm performance in the southern Great Plains

Gravity waves are a common occurrence in the atmosphere, with a variety of generation mechanisms. Their impact on wind farms has only recently gained attention, with most studies focused on wind farm-induced gravity waves. In this study, the interaction between a wind farm and gravity waves generated by an atmospheric bore event is assessed using multiscale large-eddy simulations. The atmospheric bore is created by a thunderstorm downdraft from a nocturnal mesoscale convective system (MCS). The associated gravity waves impact the wind resource and power production at a nearby wind farm during the American Wake Experiment (AWAKEN) in the US southern Great Plains. A two-domain nested setup (Δx=300 and 20 m) is used in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced with data from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model, to capture both the formation of the bore and its interaction with individual wind turbines. The MCS is resolved on the large outer domain, where the structure of the bore and the associated gravity waves are found to be especially sensitive to parameterized microphysics processes. On the finer inner domain, gravity wave interactions with individual wind turbines are resolved; wake dynamics are captured using a generalized actuator disk parameterization in WRF. The gravity waves are found to have a strong effect on the atmosphere above the wind farm; however, the effect of the waves is more nuanced closer to the surface where there is additional turbulence, both ambient and wake-generated. Notably, the gravity waves modulate the mesoscale environment by weakening and dissipating the preexisting low-level jet, which reduces hub-height wind speed and hence the simulated power output, which is confirmed by the observed supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) power data. Additionally, the gravity waves induce local wind direction variations correlated with fluctuations in pressure, which lead to fluctuations in the simulated power output as various turbines within the farm are subjected to waking from nearby turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.

climate change↗

Examining future changes in coastal low-level jet properties offshore California through dynamical downscaling

The coastal low-level jet, or coastal low-level jet (CLLJ), is a synoptically-forced meteorological feature frequently present offshore the western United States (U.S.). Characterized by a wind speed maximum that resides at the top of the marine boundary layer, the CLLJ is largely controlled by the location and strength of the North Pacific High (NPH) as well as the coastal geometry. Considering the rich wind resource available in this offshore region, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management identified wind energy lease areas offshore California and supported the deployment of two U.S. Department of Energy wind lidar buoys near Morro Bay and Humboldt. Despite our relatively good understanding of the fundamental mechanisms responsible for large-scale CLLJ properties offshore the western U.S., future changes in CLLJ characteristics are less clear. To address this research challenge, and ultimately to better inform future wind turbine deployments, we use simulations driven by three global climate models (GCMs). We apply self-organizing maps to the model outputs for a historical and two future climate periods to show the range of NPH regimes that support CLLJ conditions during the warm seasons, as well as the subtle contribution from land-falling cyclones approaching the mainland during the cold seasons. Compared to the historical period, the three GCM-driven simulations agree that CLLJ conditions will become more (less) prevalent from central California northward (southward). They agree less with respect to future changes in maximum CLLJ wind speeds and CLLJ heights. However, after considering model biases present during the historical period, wind speeds between the models are actually more similar during the 2070–2095 period than during the historical period. The potential combination of more frequent CLLJ conditions characterized by relatively consistent wind speeds occurring at lower heights across northern California suggests that the Humboldt lease area may be ideal for a long-term wind turbine deployment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Tutorial on the Control of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines: Stability Challenges and Opportunities for Power Capture

Climate change is a serious threat facing humanity. The United States (U.S.) and many other countries are increasing the amount of electrical power generated from renewable energy sources in an effort to combat climate change and ensure energy independence. The U.S. has set goals to achieve a 100% decarbonized electric grid by 2035 and a net-zero emissions economy by no later than 2050. Renewable energy currently accounts for about 20% of the U.S. power grid. According to the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in the U.S. in 2021, wind and solar photovoltaic generation supplied 9.1% and 4% of total electricity generation, respectively, and the latest publicly available data show that hydropower represented 6.6% of all electricity generated in the U.S. in 2019. As wind farms have been built in many of the best wind resource areas on land, the U.S. and many other countries are turning to offshore wind for further growth of wind power capacity. Further, the U.S. has committed to deploy 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030, a significant increase from the 0.04 GW of installed offshore wind in the country as of the end of 2023. Many other countries have also established ambitious goals or plans to increase the amount of installed offshore wind power.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

U.S. Department of Energy Collegiate Wind Competition 2025: Rules - Phases 2 and 3

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office's (WETO) Collegiate Wind Competition (CWC, also referred to as the "competition" in this rules document) invites interdisciplinary teams of undergraduate students from a variety of academic programs to solve complex wind energy challenges. Through the competition, WETO intends to offer students direct industry experience, valuable exposure to wind energy career pathways, and greater knowledge of wind energy's potential to contribute to a clean energy future. The competition will select up to 35 teams to start, making them eligible to compete for a cash prize pool of up to $280,000. Each year, the competition identifies a new challenge and set of activities that address real-world research questions, thus demonstrating skills that students will need to work in the wind or wider renewable energy industries. The Collegiate Wind Competition 2025 challenge requires participants to compete simultaneously in four contests: 1) Turbine Design Contest: Design, build, and present a unique, wind-driven power system. 2) Turbine Testing Contest: Test the wind turbine in a competition wind tunnel at the final event. 3) Project Development Contest: Research wind resource data, transmission infrastructure, and environmental factors to create a site plan and financial analysis for a hypothetical wind farm. 4) Connection Creation Contest: Partner with wind industry professionals, raise awareness of wind energy in your local community, and work with local media to promote your team's accomplishments. The competition does not prescribe a power system market or wind regime. It is expected that each team will participate in all four contests.

Collegiate Wind Competition↗

Simulations suggest offshore wind farms modify low-level jets

Abstract. Offshore wind farms are scheduled to be constructed along the East Coast of the US in the coming years. Low-level jets (LLJs) – layers of relatively fast winds at low altitudes – also occur frequently in this region. Because LLJs provide considerable wind resources, it is important to understand how LLJs might change with turbine construction. LLJs also influence moisture and pollution transport; thus, the effects of wind farms on LLJs could also affect the region’s meteorology. In the absence of observations or significant wind farm construction as yet, we compare 1 year of simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with and without wind farms incorporated, focusing on locations chosen by their proximity to future wind development areas. We develop and present an algorithm to detect LLJs at each hour of the year at each of these locations. We validate the algorithm to the extent possible by comparing LLJs identified by lidar, constrained to the lowest 200 m, to WRF simulations of these very low LLJs (vLLJs). In the NOW-WAKES simulation data set, we find offshore LLJs in this region occur about 25 % of the time, most frequently at night, in the spring and summer months, in stably stratified conditions, and when a southwesterly wind is blowing. LLJ wind speed maxima range from 10 m s−1 to over 40 m s−1. The altitude of maximum wind speed, or the jet “nose”, is typically 300 m above the surface, above the height of most profiling lidars, although several hours of vLLJs occur in each month in the data set. The diurnal cycle for vLLJs is less pronounced than for all LLJs. Wind farms erode LLJs, as LLJs occur less frequently (19 %–20 % of hours) in the wind farm simulations than in the no-wind-farm (NWF) simulation (25 % of hours). When LLJs do occur in the simulation with wind farms, their noses are higher than in the NWF simulation: the LLJ nose has a mean altitude near 300 m for the NWF jets, but that nose height moves higher in the presence of wind farms, to a mean altitude near 400 m. Rotor region (30–250 m) wind veer is reduced across almost all months of the year in the wind farm simulations, while rotor region wind shear is similar in both simulations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Fatigue performance of the Deeply Embedded Ring Anchor

Existing anchor solutions are limited in their applicability to the floating offshore wind industry, which demands prolonged load endurance in extreme weather conditions and varied seabed soils. This limitation restricts project feasibility and increases costs. In order to address these challenges, the Deeply Embedded Ring Anchor (DERA) is proposed to achieve substantial reductions in anchor costs through efficiency enhancements. Ensuring the long-term safety and reliability of the DERA, especially considering a minimum operational period of 25 years, necessitates a comprehensive understanding of fatigue damage. Induced by repetitive loading below material yield strength, fatigue poses a significant threat to structures exposed to waves and currents. Anchors, vital for station keeping, are susceptible to fatigue damage, particularly in the padeye area. This paper conducts a fatigue analysis, focusing on factors such as the wall thickness of the ring anchor, inner stiffeners, and stiffener thickness, to evaluate the performance of DERA in this context. The results showed that the stiffener significantly affects the elongation of the total life of the anchor. In conclusion, this paper focuses on advancing innovations like DERA, enabling the efficient utilization of offshore wind resources, and addressing safety concerns through meticulous fatigue analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Hybrid Power Plants for Energy Resilience: A Case Study

As renewable energy technologies are increasingly adopted, they pose an opportunity to improve the sustainability and resilience of distributed grids, especially when their design and operation is coordinated as a hybrid power plant. When included in hybrid power plants, distributed wind turbines in particular have the potential to enhance the resilience of distributed grids in areas with good wind resource, due to their ability to provide more consistent generation and ancillary services as compared to photo-voltaic (PV) solar panels. Despite this benefit, U.S. distributed wind adoption is lower than other comparable renewable energy technologies. In this study, we seek to demonstrate how hybrid power plants that include distributed wind turbines can contribute to distribution grid resilience by meeting loads (especially critical loads) more consistently, increasing reserve capacity, and providing value to customers during outages. To demonstrate these contributions, we integrate three separate frameworks and apply them to a case study in a rural electric cooperative in Iowa. Through this case study, we simulate and compare hybrid power plant design and operation during two hazard events: a tornado that causes a 48-hour distribution outage and a winter weather event that causes a 6-hour generation outage. The inclusion of a hybrid power plant that leverages 1) increased battery duration and 2) advanced forecasting and dispatch strategies that reserve capacity leading up to a hazard event best reduce lost loads as well as diesel consumption that would otherwise be used to meet those loads during short- and long-duration hazard events. Depending on the hybrid power plant capacity and operation, we find that the outage mitigation value of a hybrid power plant (measured in value to customers to avoid an outage and avoided lost revenues for the utility) is significant in both hazard events; adding wind, solar, and battery assets to the existing system adds about $50-$100M in avoided lost load and at least $4-$8k in utility value in the tornado hazard event, and $570k-$2.2M in avoided lost load and at least $220-$650 in utility value in the winter hazard scenario. In both the tornado and winter hazard scenarios, optimizing the operation of the hybrid system for resilience can lend similar value as increasing battery duration by 5 MWh for the lower capacity systems considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗