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NASA NTRS2003

The Unusual Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere Winter of 2002

The southern hemisphere stratospheric winter of 2002 was the most unusual winter yet observed in the southern hemisphere climate record. Temperatures near the edge of the Antarctic polar vortex were considerably warmer than normal over the entire course of the winter. The polar night jet was considerably weaker than normal, and was displaced more poleward than has been observed in previous winters. These record high temperatures and weak jet resulted from a series of wave events that took place over the course of the winter. The first large event occurred on 15 May, and the final warming occurred on 25 October. The propagation of these wave events from the troposphere is diagnosed from time series of Eliassen-Palm flux vectors. The wave events tended to occur irregularly over the course of the winter, and pre-conditioned the polar night jet for the extremely large wave event of 22 September. This large wave event resulted in the first ever observed major stratospheric warming in the southern hemisphere. This wave event split the Antarctic ozone hole. The combined effect of the wave events of the 2002 winter resulted in the smallest ozone hole observed since 1988.

Newman, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between them, demonstrating that the seasonal winter temperature distributions over East Asia are substantially explained by these four large-scale circulation impacts.

El Nino-Southern Oscillation↗
NASA NTRS2014

Quantitative Estimation of the Impact of European Teleconnections on Interannual Variation of East Asian Winter Temperature and Monsoon

The impact of European teleconnections including the East AtlanticWest Russia (EA-WR), the Scandinavia (SCA), and the East Atlantic (EA) on East Asian winter temperature variability was quantified and compared with the combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Western Pacific (WP), and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are originated in the Northern Hemispheric high-latitudes or the Pacific. Three European teleconnections explained 22-25 percent of the total monthly upper-tropospheric height variance over Eurasia. Regression analysis revealed warming by EA-WR and EA and cooling by SCA over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. Temperature anomalies were largely explained by the advective temperature change process at the lower troposphere. The average spatial correlation over East Asia (90-180E, 10-80N) for the last 34 winters between observed and reconstructed temperature comprised of AO, WP and ENSO effect (AWE) was approximately 0.55, and adding the European teleconnection components (ESE) to the reconstructed temperature improved the correlation up to approximately 0.64. Lower level atmospheric structure demonstrated that approximately five of the last 34 winters were significantly better explained by ESE than AWE to determine East Asian seasonal winter temperatures. We also compared the impact between EA-WR and AO on the 1) East Asian winter monsoon, 2) cold surge, and 3) the Siberian high. These three were strongly coupled, and their spatial features and interannual variation were somewhat better explained by EA-WR than AO. Results suggest that the EA-WR impact must be treated more importantly than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

East Asian Winter Monsoon↗
NASA NTRS2017

Early Season Large-Area Winter Crop Mapping Using MODIS NDVI Data, Growing Degree Days Information and a Gaussian Mixture Model

Knowledge on geographical location and distribution of crops at global, national and regional scales is an extremely valuable source of information applications. Traditional approaches to crop mapping using remote sensing data rely heavily on reference or ground truth data in order to train/calibrate classification models. As a rule, such models are only applicable to a single vegetation season and should be recalibrated to be applicable for other seasons. This paper addresses the problem of early season large-area winter crop mapping using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series and growing degree days (GDD) information derived from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) product. The model is based on the assumption that winter crops have developed biomass during early spring while other crops (spring and summer) have no biomass. As winter crop development is temporally and spatially non-uniform due to the presence of different agro-climatic zones, we use GDD to account for such discrepancies. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is applied to discriminate winter crops from other crops (spring and summer). The proposed method has the following advantages: low input data requirements, robustness, applicability to global scale application and can provide winter crop maps 1.5-2 months before harvest. The model is applied to two study regions, the State of Kansas in the US and Ukraine, and for multiple seasons (2001-2014). Validation using the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Data Layer (CDL) for Kansas and ground measurements for Ukraine shows that accuracies of greater than 90% can be achieved in mapping winter crops 1.5-2 months before harvest. Results also show good correspondence to official statistics with average coefficients of determination R(exp. 2) greater than 0.85.

mixture model↗
NASA NTRS1989

The separated polar winter stratopause - A gravity wave driven climatological feature

An examination of satellite-derived temperatures reveals that the winter polar stratopause is usually elevated and warmer than the adjacent midlatitude stratopause. This separated stratopause occurs in both hemispheres, but is more pronounced and persistent in the southern winter. It descends with time towards spring and exhibits week-to-week variability. Observational diagnostics and results from a two-dimensional model suggest that gravity-wave driving can account for this separated polar stratopause by driving a meridional circulation, with downwelling over the winter pole. In the model, the solar heating pattern induces stronger winter westerlies than summer easterlies, which leads to a stronger gravity-wave-driven circulation in the winter hemisphere. Spherical geometry and the high latitude location of the winter westerly jet combine to yield a concentrated region of downwelling. Model results suggest that descent of the temperature maximum with time is probably caused by wave/mean-flow interaction.

Hitchman, Matthew H.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Evolution of microwave limb sounder ozone and the polar vortex during winter

The evolution of polar ozone observed by the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) is described for the northern hemisphere (NH) winters of 1991/1992, 1992/1993, and 1993/1994 and the southern hemisphere (SH) winters of 1992 and 1993. Imterannual and interhemispheric variability in polar ozone evolution are closely related to differences in the polar vortex and to the frequency, duration and strength of stratospheric sudden warmings. Ozone in the midstratospheric vortices increases during the winter, with largest increases associated with stratospheric warmings and a much larger increase in the NH than in the SH. A smaller NH increase was observed in 1993/1994, when the middle stratospheric vortex was stronger. During strong stratospheric warmings in the NH, the upper stratospheric vortex may be so much eroded that it presents little barrier to poleward transport; in contrast, the SH vortex remains strong throughout the stratosphere during wintertime warmings, and ozone increases only below the mixing ratio peak, due to enhanced diabatic descent. Ozone mixing ratios decrease rapidly in the lower stratosphere in both SH late winters, as expected from chemical destruction due to enhanced reactive chlorine. The interplay between dynamics and chemistry is more complex in the NH lower stratosphere and interannual variability is greater. Evidence has previously been shown for chemical ozone destruction in the 1991/1992 and 1992/1993 winters. We show here evidence suggesting some chemical destruction in late February and early March 1994. In the NH late winter lower stratosphere the pattern of high-ozone values (typical of the vortex) seen in mid-latitudes is related to the strength of the lower-stratospheric vortex, with the largest areal extent of high ozone outside the vortex in 1994, when the lower stratospheric vortex is relatively weak, and the least extent in 1993 when the lower stratospheric vortex is strongest.

Manney, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Large Enhancements in the O/N2 Ratio in the Evening Sector of the Winter Hemisphere During Geomagnetic Storms

In this paper, we have looked for enhancements of the O/N2 ratio in data measured by the Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite in the middle latitudes of the winter hemisphere, based on a prediction that was made by the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere/tonosphere general circulation model (NCAR-TIGCM) that such increases occur. The NCAR-TIGCM predicts that these enhancements should be seen throughout the low latitude region and in many middle latitude locations, but that the enhancements in O/N2 are particularly strong in the middle-latitude, evening-to-midnight sector of the winter hemisphere. When this prediction was used to look for these effects in DE 2 NACS (neutral atmosphere composition spectrometer) data, large enhancements in the O/N2 ratio (approx. 50 to 90%) were seen. These enhancements were observed during the main phase of a storm that occurred on November 24, 1982, and were seen in the same region of the winter hemisphere predicted by the NCAR-TIGCM. They are partially the result of the depletion of N2 and, as electron loss is dependent on dissociative recombination at F(sub 2) altitudes, they have implications for electron densities in this area. Parcel trajectories, which have been followed through the NCAR-TIGCM history file for this event, show that large O/N2 enhancements occur in this limited region in the winter hemisphere for two reasons. First, these parcels of air are decelerated by the antisunward edge of the ion convection pattern; individual parcels converge and subsidence occurs. Thus molecular-nitrogen-poor air is brought from higher to lower heights. Because neutral parcels that are found a little poleward of the equatorial edge of the eveningside convection pattern are swept inward toward the center of the auroral oval, the enhancements occur only in a very limited range of latitudes. Second, nitrogen-poor air is transported from regions close to the magnetic pole in the winter hemisphere. During geomagnetic storms, enhanced meridional winds are driven by the increased pressure-gradient force that is associated with intensified Joule heating in the auroral oval. These pressure-driven winds decrease rapidly on the dayside beyond the auroral oval where the parcels originate, limiting the region into which the parcels can be transported. Thus these two processes drive values of O/N2 in a limited region of the winter hemisphere, and reinforce only in the evening sector, causing large changes in this region.

Burns, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Comparison of U.K. Meteorological Office and U.S. National Meteorological Center Stratospheric Analyses During Northern and Southern Winter

Meteorological data from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), produced using a data assimilation system, and the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC), produced using an objective analysis procedure, are compared for dynamically active periods during the Arctic and Antarctic winters of 1992. The differences seen during these periods are generally similar to those seen during other winter periods. Both UKMO and NMC analyses capture the large-scale evolution of the stratospheric circulation during northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH) winters. Stronger vertical and horizontal temperature gradients develop in the UKMO than in the NMC data during stratospheric warmings; comparison with satellite measurements with better vertical resolution suggests that the stronger vertical temperature gradients are more realistic. The NH polar vortex is slightly stronger in the UKMO analyses than in the NMC in the middle and upper stratosphere, and midstratospheric temperatures are slightly lower. The SH polar vortex as represented in the UKMO analyses is stronger and colder in the midstratosphere than its representation in the NMC analyses. The UKMO analyses on occasion exhibit some difficulties in representing cross-polar flow or changes in curvature of the wind field at very high latitudes. In addition to the above study of two wintertime periods, a more detailed comparison of lower-stratospheric temperatures is done for all Arctic and Antarctic winter periods since the launch of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. In the NH lower stratosphere during winter, NMC temperatures are consistently lower than UKMO temperatures and closer to radiosonde temperatures than are UKMO temperatures. Conversely, in the SH lower stratosphere during winter, UKMO temperatures are typically lower than NMC and are closer to radiosonde temperature observations.

Manney, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Titan's Winter Polar Vortex

Titan's atmosphere has provided an interesting study in contrasts and similarities with Earth's. While both have N$_2$ as the dominant constituent and comparable surface pressures $\sim1$ bar, Titan's next most abundant molecule is CH$_4$, not O$_2$, and the dissociative breakup of CH$_4$ and N$_2$ by sunlight and electron impact leads to a suite of hydrocarbons and nitriles, and ultimately the photochemical smog that enshrouds the moon. In addition, with a 15.95-day period, Titan is a slow rotator compared to Earth. While the mean zonal terrestrial winds are geostrophic, Titan's are mostly cyclostrophic, whipping around the moon in as little as 1 day. Despite the different dynamical regime, Titan's winter stratosphere exhibits several characteristics that should be familiar to terrestrial meteorologists. The cold winter pole near the 1 -mbar level is circumscribed by strong winds (up to 190 m/s) that act as a barrier to mixing with airmasses at lower latitudes. There is evidence of enhancement of several organic species over the winter pole, indicating subsidence. The adiabatic heating associated with this subsidence gives rise to a warm anomaly at the 0.01-mbar level, raising the stratopause two scale heights above its location at equatorial latitudes. Condensate ices have been detected in Titan's lower stratosphere within the winter polar vortex from infrared spectra. Although not always unambiguously identified, their spatial distribution exhibits a sharp gradient, decreasing precipitously across the vortex away from the winter pole. The interesting question of whether there is important heterogeneous chemistry occurring within the polar vortex, analogous to that occurring in the terrestrial polar stratospheric clouds in the ozone holes, has not been addressed. The breakup of Titan's winter polar vortex has not yet been observed. On Earth, the polar vortex is nonlinearly disrupted by interaction with large-amplitude planetary waves. Large-scale waves have not been identified in Titan's atmosphere, so the decay of its polar vortex may be more gradual than on Earth. Observations from an extended Cassini mission into late northern spring should provide critical data indicating whether the vortex goes away with a bang or just fades away.

Flasar, F.M.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above pre-industrial on potential winter wheat production of China

Keeping global temperatures below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial condition and pursuing efforts toward the more ambitious 1.5 °C goal in the late 21st century was the main target from the Paris Agreement in 2015. Here we assessed the likely challenges for the China’s winter wheat production under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C increase of global temperature, with four wheat crop models (CERES-Wheat, Nwheat, WheatGrow, and APSIM-Wheat) and the latest climate projections from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project (HAPPI). Instead of using average “winter type” wheat cultivar, and same management and soil inputs for whole region, location-specific winter wheat cultivars with local agronomic information were calibrated for each of the representative wheat growing area of China, allowing a better spatial agronomic representation of the whole wheat planting area. The mean growing season temperature (GST) during the winter wheat vegetative stage was projected to increase by 0.6 to 1.4 °C for the 1.5 °C scenario, and 0.9 to 1.8 °C for the 2.0 °C scenario, while during the reproductive stage was decreased between 0 and 0.9 °C for the 1.5 °C scenario and -0.3 and 1.1 °C for the 2.0 °C scenario. Growing season duration (GSD) for the whole period was shortened by 6 to 15 days for the 1.5 °C scenario and 8 to 18 days for the 2.0 °C scenario, as a result of higher GST under global warming. Increase in GST and decrease in GSD was more obvious in the Southwest Subregion (SWS) than subregions in the north. The shortening GSD for the whole wheat growth period was mostly from the shortening vegetative period, as no appreciable difference in number of days from anthesis to maturity was found for the whole regions. Although there is variability among models, the indication is that wheat yields were projected to increase in the North Subregion (NS), the Huang-Huai Subregion (HHS), and the Middle-lower Researches of Yangzi River Subregion (MYS), but to decrease in the SWS under two warming scenarios. The effects of elevated CO2 concentration were mostly beneficial and tended to offset the negative impacts of increasing temperature at both global warming scenarios, with a rate of 7-14% yield increase per 100-ppm, except for locations with GST of baseline higher than 11 °C. Aggregating to regional wheat production, the total winter wheat production of China was projected to increase by 2.8% (1.6% to 3.0%, 25th percentile to 75th percentile) and 8.3% (7.0% to 9.6%, 25th percentile to 75th percentile) under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, and most of increase was observed in the north subregions due to the largest wheat planting area. Our results will lay the foundation for developing adaptation strategies to future climate change to ensure China and global wheat supply and food security.

Winter wheat↗
NASA NTRS1972

Positive ions and the winter anomaly.

A coordinated rocket program to study winter variability in D-region ionization was conducted at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, during the winter of 1970-1971. Parachute-borne blunt probes that measure positive-ion and electron conductivities were flown, in conjunction with other experiments, on Jan. 22 and 26 and Feb. 1, 1971. Both A1 and A3 radiowave absorption techniques were used to indicate anomalous winter days. The two rocket shots in January occurred on such days of high absorption. The first of these was one of quiet solar activity, whereas the second was preceded by a major solar proton event on January 24. The third flight occurred on a normal winter day. We tentatively conclude that we have observed two days of 'anomalous' winter absorption of very different character, one possibly related to a solar disturbance, and one probably entirely induced by meteorological effects. The former day was probably characterized by inhibition of the formation of negative ions due to increased detachment and the latter by decreased ionization loss rate.

Mitchell, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Dynamical roles of planetary waves on the winter anomaly in the middle and lower latitudes

The winter anomaly of radio wave absorption in the ionospheric D region (65 to 90 km), caused by a factor of about ten increase in electron density, has been considered to be due to a factor of about ten increase of the nitric oxide concentration and/or a few tens of degrees Kelvin temperature rise due to a strong temperature dependency of the conversion rate of molecular ions to cluster ions. In order to investigate the mechanism of the winter anomaly, the processes that brought about these changes are identified. It is well known that stratospheric warmings sometimes accompany the winter anomaly in middle latitudes. The present study concentrates on the winter anomaly which occurred simultaneously during a sudden warming of the 1967 to 1968 winter, from middle December 1967 to middle January 1968. Variations of geophysical and ionospheric parameters are shown.

Kawahira, K.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Intrusions into the lower stratospheric Arctic vortex during the winter of 1991-1992

Investigations of the kinematics of the lower stratospheric Arctic vortex during the winter of 1991-1992 using the contour advection with surgery technique reveal three distinct events in which there was substantial intrusion of midlatitude air into the vortex, in apparent contradiction of the view that the polar vortex constitutes an isolated air mass. Two of these events, in late January and mid-February, were well documented. They were predicted in high-resolution forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, most clearly in experimental forecasts with reduced diffusion. Direct confirmation of the presence of the intrusions and of their calculated locations was provided by aerosol observations from the airborne differential absorption laser lidar aboard the NASA DC-8, taken as part of the second Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition campaign; aerosol-rich air of midlatitude origin was seen in the expected position of the intrusions. The reality of the February event was also confirmed by in situ measurements from the NASA ER-2. Such events may be significant for the chemical processes taking place within the winter vortex. The intrusions were evidently related to the meteorology of the northern stratosphere during this winter and in particular to persistent tropospheric blocking over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean and western Europe and concomitant ridging into the lower stratospheric vortex in this region. Nevertheless, preliminary investigations have indicated that such events are not uncommon in other northern hemisphere winters, although no such events were found in the southern hemisphere during the Antarctic winter of 1987.

Plumb, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Isentropic mixing in the Arctic stratosphere during the 1992-1993 and 1993-1994 winters

Dynamic isolation of the winter Arctic circumpolar vortex during 1992-1993 and 1993-1994 (the second and third northern hemisphere winters of the UARS mission) is studied using quasi-horizontal isentropic trajectories. Ejection of vortex air and entrainment of mid-latitude air into the vortex are quantified and compared with climatological values obtained from the analysis of 16 Arctic winters. A number of unusual features of both winters are discussed. The most notable features are the anomalous isolation experienced by the vortex during December 1992 and the unusual degree of isolation and persistence of the vortex during February and March of both years. the 1992-1993 winter season is the most consistently isolated vortex on record. Only during January 1993, when entrainment is large, is this pattern of extreme isolation broken.

Dahlberg, Steven P.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Are Stronger North-Atlantic Southwesterlies the Forcing to the Late-Winter Warming in Europe?

We examine a possible mechanism leading to late-winter warming and thus to an early spring in Europe. From the NCEP Reanalysis, we extract for the years 1948-1999 ocean-surface winds over the eastern North Atlantic, and air temperatures at the surface, T(sub s), and at the 500 mb level, T(sub 500), in late-winter and spring. T(sub s) is extracted at six European locations, all at 50.5 N, ranging in longitude from 1.9 E (northeastern France) to 26.2 E (Ukraine). To quantify the advection of maritime air into Europe, we evaluate for 3-pentad groups the Index I(sub na) of the southwesterlies at 45 N; 20 W: I(sub na) is the average wind speed at this point if the direction is from the quadrant 180-270 deg (when the direction is different, the contribution counts as zero). In late winter correlations C(sub it) between the Index I(sub na) and the temperature T(sub s) are substantial, up to the 0.6 level, in western Europe (but weaker correlations for Poland and Ukraine). C(sub it) drops sharply by mid-March, taking occasionally negative values subsequently. This drop in C(sub it) indicates that maritime air advection is no longer associated closely with the surface-air warming, the role of immolation becomes important, and thus the drop in C(sub it) marks the arrival of spring. Correlations C(sub i delta) between I(sub na) and our lapse-rate parameter delta, the difference between T(sub s) and T(sub 500), indicate that the flow of warm maritime-air from the North Atlantic into this 'corridor' at 50.5 N is predominantly at low tropospheric level. By computing the best linear fit to I(sub na) and T(sub s), the trends for the period 1948-1999 are evaluated. The trends are appreciable in the second half of February and the first half of March. Our 3-pentad analysis points to the interval from mid-February to mid-March as the end-of-winter period in which the southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic become stronger and the surface-air temperatures in Europe rise markedly, the lapse rate becomes steeper, and concurrently the longitudinal temperature gradient between the Somme (France) and the Oder (Germany/Poland border) is reduced by 0.8 C, that is, by 20% of its 1948 value. Our thesis, that the observed late-winter warming and the corollary advancement of spring in Europe resulted at least in part from stronger southwesterlies over the North Atlantic, merits further investigations.

Otterman, J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Variability of Winter Air Temperature in Mid-Latitude Europe

The aim of this paper is to report extreme winter/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. Warm advection from the North Atlantic in late winter controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in winter. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in winter was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with extreme fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its extreme by comparing warm-winter/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the warm low-level advection. in the 1989/90 winter, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud cover and precipitable water are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis.

Otterman, J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Comparing Model Ozone Loss during the SOLVE and SOLVE-2 Winters

Model simulations have been used to analyze the factors influencing ozone loss during the 1999-2000 and 2002-2003 js. For both winters, the evolution of the Arctic vortex from November to April has been simulated using a trajectory-based microphysical and photochemical model. Extensive PSC formation and strong ozone depletion are evident in both winters. However, the ozone loss begins earlier in the 2002-2003 winter, with significant ozone depletion by early January. Analysis of the model results shows that during December 2002 not only cold temperatures but also the vortex structure was critical, allowing PSC-processed air parcels to experience significant solar exposure. The resultant ozone loss can be differentiated from ozone loss that occurs in the springtime, in particular because of the continued exposure to PSCs. For example, chlorine reactivation by the PSCs causes ozone loss to be insensitive to denitrification. Therefore, diagnosing the extent of ozone loss early in the winter is critical In understanding the overall winter-long ozone depletion.

Drdla, K.↗
NASA NTRS2012

On the Influence of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature on the Arctic Winter Climate

Differences between two ensembles of Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model simulations isolate the impact of North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the Arctic winter climate. One ensemble of extended winter season forecasts is forced by unusually high SSTs in the North Pacific, while in the second ensemble SSTs in the North Pacific are unusually low. High Low differences are consistent with a weakened Western Pacific atmospheric teleconnection pattern, and in particular, a weakening of the Aleutian low. This relative change in tropospheric circulation inhibits planetary wave propagation into the stratosphere, in turn reducing polar stratospheric temperature in mid- and late winter. The number of winters with sudden stratospheric warmings is approximately tripled in the Low ensemble as compared with the High ensemble. Enhanced North Pacific SSTs, and thus a more stable and persistent Arctic vortex, lead to a relative decrease in lower stratospheric ozone in late winter, affecting the April clear-sky UV index at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.

Hurwitz, Margaret M.↗