The Kepler Mission: A Photometric Search for Earthlike Planets
If Earth lies in or near the orbital plane of an extrasolar planet, that planet passes in front of the disk of its star once each orbit as viewed from Earth. Precise photometry can reveal such transits, which can be distinguished from rotationally-modulated starspots and intrinsic stellar variability by their periodicity, square-well shapes and relative spectral neutrality. Transit observations would provide the size and orbital period of the detected planet. Although geometrical considerations limit the fraction of planets detectable by this technique, many stars can be surveyed within the field of view of one telescope, so transit photometry is quite efficient. Scintillation in and variability of Earth's atmosphere limit photometric precision to roughly one-thousandth of a magnitude, allowing detection of transits by Jupiter-sized planets but not by Earth-sized planets from the ground. The COROT spacecraft will be able to detect Uranus-sized planets orbiting near stars. The Kepler Mission, which is being proposed to NASA's Discovery Program this year, will have a photometer with a larger aperture (1 meter) than will COROT, so it will be able to detect transits by planets as small as Earth. Moreover, the Kepler mission will examine the same star field for four years, allowing confirmation of planets with orbital periods of a year. If the Sun's planetary system is typical for single stars, Kepler should detect approximately 480 terrestrial planets. Assuming the statistics from radial velocity surveys are typical, Kepler should also detect transits of 150 inner giant planets and reflected light variations of 1400 giant planets with orbital periods of less than one week.